Identification of suitable areas for the occurrence of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Spain using a multiple criteria decision framework

Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review

Mosquito-borne infections are increasing in endemic areas and previously unaffected regions. In 2020, the notification rate for Dengue was 0.5 cases per 100,000 population, and for Chikungunya <0.1/100,000. In 2019, the rate for Malaria was 1.3/100,000, and for West Nile Virus, 0.1/100,000. Spatial analysis is increasingly used in surveillance and epidemiological investigation, but reviews about their use in this research topic are scarce. We identify and describe the methodological approaches used to investigate the distribution and ecological determinants of mosquito-borne infections in Europe. Relevant literature was extracted from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception until October 2021 and analysed according to PRISMA-ScR protocol. We identified 110 studies. Most used geographical correlation analysis (n = 50), mainly applying generalised linear models, and the remaining used spatial cluster detection (n = 30) and disease mapping (n = 30), mainly conducted using frequentist approaches. The most studied infections were Dengue (n = 32), Malaria (n = 26), Chikungunya (n = 26), and West Nile Virus (n = 24), and the most studied ecological determinants were temperature (n = 39), precipitation (n = 24), water bodies (n = 14), and vegetation (n = 11). Results from this review may support public health programs for mosquito-borne disease prevention and may help guide future research, as we recommended various good practices for spatial epidemiological studies.

Identification of risk areas for foot and mouth disease in Thailand using a geographic information system-based multi-criteria decision analysis

In our study, we used geographic information system (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to predict suitable areas for foot and mouth disease (FMD) occurrence in Thailand. Eleven experts evaluated 10 spatial risk factors associated with the occurrence and spread of FMD in Thailand during 2014-2015. The analytic hierarchy process was used to conduct problem structuring and prioritising of pairwise comparisons with criterion weighting. Important spatial risk factors were converted to geographical layers using standardised fuzzy membership. Thus, weight linear combination was used to combine and create suitability and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. We identified areas in northern, north-eastern, western, and central Thailand as hotspots of FMD occurrence. In the predictive map, the suitable areas presented a moderate degree of agreement with those after FMD outbreaks in the year 2016 (AUC = 0.71, 95 %CI: 0.68-0.75). In conclusion, GIS-based MCDA mapping well supported veterinary services in identifying hotspot areas of FMD occurrence in Thailand. This tool was very useful for disease surveillance.

Assessment of the outbreak risk, mapping and infection behavior of COVID-19: Application of the autoregressive integrated-moving average (ARIMA) and polynomial models

Infectious disease outbreaks pose a significant threat to human health worldwide. The outbreak of pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global health emergency. Thus, identification of regions with high risk for COVID-19 outbreak and analyzing the behaviour of the infection is a major priority of the governmental organizations and epidemiologists worldwide. The aims of the present study were to analyze the risk factors of coronavirus outbreak for identifying the areas having high risk of infection and to evaluate the behaviour of infection in Fars Province, Iran. A geographic information system (GIS)-based machine learning algorithm (MLA), support vector machine (SVM), was used for the assessment of the outbreak risk of COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran whereas the daily observations of infected cases were tested in the-polynomial and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to examine the patterns of virus infestation in the province and in Iran. The results of the disease outbreak in Iran were compared with the data for Iran and the world. Sixteen effective factors were selected for spatial modelling of outbreak risk. The validation outcome reveals that SVM achieved an AUC value of 0.786 (March 20), 0.799 (March 29), and 86.6 (April 10) that displays a good prediction of outbreak risk change detection. The results of the third-degree polynomial and ARIMA models in the province revealed an increasing trend with an evidence of turning, demonstrating extensive quarantines has been effective. The general trends of virus infestation in Iran and Fars Province were similar, although a more volatile growth of the infected cases is expected in the province. The results of this study might assist better programming COVID-19 disease prevention and control and gaining sorts of predictive capability would have wide-ranging benefits.

Serosurvey of Peste des Petits Ruminants in southern Spain

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a highly infectious disease caused by a virus member of the genus Morbillivirus, which mainly affects goats, sheep and wild ruminants. It is considered one of the most significant transboundary infectious diseases and represents an animal health concern in developing countries. Spain is considered a PPR-free country. Nevertheless, given its geographical proximity to countries in North Africa where PPR virus (PPRV) has been circulating in recent years, the south of Spain can be considered a risk area for the introduction of PPRV. The aim of the present study was to assess circulation of PPRV in domestic and wild ruminant species in this country. During the period 2015-2017, a total of 910 sera from domestic, wild and captive ruminants were analysed using a commercial blocking ELISA to detect antibodies against PPRV. None of the 910 (0.0%; 95% CI: 0.0-0.3) animals tested were positive for anti-PPRV antibodies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first serosurvey study of PPR in Spain. The results indicate absence of circulating PPRV in the south of Spain during the study period. Due to the risk of PPRV introduction into European countries of the Mediterranean basin, epidemiological surveillance should be maintained and extended in this region.

Using species distribution models to predict potential hot-spots for Rift Valley Fever establishment in the United Kingdom

Vector borne diseases are a continuing global threat to both human and animal health. The ability of vectors such as mosquitos to cover large distances and cross country borders undetected provide an ever-present threat of pathogen spread. Many diseases can infect multiple vector species, such that even if the climate is not hospitable for an invasive species, indigenous species may be susceptible and capable of transmission such that one incursion event could lead to disease establishment in these species. Here we present a consensus modelling methodology to estimate the habitat suitability for presence of mosquito species in the UK deemed competent for Rift Valley fever virus (RVF) and demonstrate its application in an assessment of the relative risk of establishment of RVF virus in the UK livestock population. The consensus model utilises observed UK mosquito surveillance data, along with climatic and geographic prediction variables, to inform six independent species distribution models; the results of which are combined to produce a single prediction map. As a livestock host is needed to transmit RVF, we then combine the consensus model output with existing maps of sheep and cattle density to predict the areas of the UK where disease is most likely to establish in local mosquito populations. The model results suggest areas of high suitability for RVF competent mosquito species across the length and breadth of the UK. Notable areas of high suitability were the South West of England and coastal areas of Wales, the latter of which was subsequently predicted to be at higher risk for establishment of RVF due to higher livestock densities. This study demonstrates the applicability of outputs of species distribution models to help predict hot-spots for risk of disease establishment. While there is still uncertainty associated with the outputs we believe that the predictions are an improvement on just using the raw presence points from a database alone. The outputs can also be used as part of a multidisciplinary approach to inform risk based disease surveillance activities.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Field-captured Aedes vexans (Meigen, 1830) is a competent vector for Rift Valley fever phlebovirus in Europe

BACKGROUND

Aedes vexans (Meigen) is considered a nuisance species in central Europe and the Mediterranean region. It is an anthropophilic and mammalophilic floodwater mosquito involved in the transmission of several arboviruses. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a relevant mosquito-borne zoonosis, affecting mainly humans and ruminants, that causes severe impact in public health and economic loses. Due to globalization and climate change, the European continent is threatened by its introduction. The main purpose of the present study was to evaluate the vector competence of a European field-collected Ae. vexans population.

METHODS

Aedes vexans field-collected larvae were reared in the laboratory under field-simulated conditions. To assess the vector competence for Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) transmission, adult F0 females were exposed to infectious blood meals containing the 56/74 RVFV strain. Additionally, intrathoracic inoculations with the same virus strain were performed to evaluate the relevance of the salivary gland barriers. Natural circulation of alphavirus, flavivirus and phlebovirus was also tested.

RESULTS

To our knowledge, an autochthonous Ae. vexans population was experimentally confirmed as a competent vector for RVFV for the first time. This virus was capable of infecting and disseminating within the studied Ae. vexans mosquitoes. Moreover, infectious virus was isolated from the saliva of disseminated specimens, showing their capacity to transmit the virus. Additionally, a natural infection with a circulating Mosquito flavivirus was detected. The co-infection with the Mosquito flavivirus seemed to modulate RVFV infection susceptibility in field-collected Ae. vexans, but further studies are needed to confirm its potential interference in RVFV transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that field-collected European Ae. vexans would be able to transmit RVFV in case of introduction into the continent. This should be taken into consideration in the design of surveillance and control programmes.

Risk of Introduction of Infectious Animal Diseases for Europe Based on the Health Situation of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula

The current growth of the human population, the intensification of animal production, climate change or globalization favors an increase in the transmission of infectious diseases. Risk analysis is the tool that allows the identification of the factors involved in the introduction and the spread of infectious diseases. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the risk of entry of animal infectious zoonotic and non-zoonotic diseases from North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula to countries of the European Union. A probabilistic formulation has been developed to obtain the probabilities of introduction of diseases associated with each possible route of entry in the European Union. The results show that, among the infectious diseases analyzed in this study, avian influenza and Newcastle disease are the ones with a higher risk of entry in the European Union and the wild bird's migration is the route with greater impact. It is confirmed a moderate probability of entry of some vector-borne diseases, bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease, through wind flow from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Due to the absence of live dromedary movement to Europe, the more likely way of entry of the Middle East respiratory syndrome is through the infected people movement from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. This study includes different methodologies. A model of vectors dispersion in wind currents has been established to assess the risk of introduction of vector borne diseases. It is applicable both in animal health and public health. A periodical update would be useful to obtain a periodically updated risk analysis and to allow early detection of potential hazard with an increased risk over the previous years.

Towards harmonisation of entomological surveillance in the Mediterranean area

BACKGROUND

The Mediterranean Basin is historically a hotspot for trade, transport, and migration. As a result, countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea share common public health threats. Among them are vector-borne diseases, and in particular, mosquito-borne viral diseases are prime candidates as (re)emerging diseases and are likely to spread across the area. Improving preparedness and response capacities to these threats at the regional level is therefore a major issue. The implementation of entomological surveillance is, in particular, of utmost importance. Guidance in designing entomological surveillance systems is critical, and these systems may pursue different specific objectives depending on the disease. The purpose of the proposed review is to draw up guidelines for designing effective and sustainable entomological surveillance systems in order to improve preparedness and response. However, we make it clear that there is no universal surveillance system, so the thinking behind harmonisation is to define evidence-based standards in order to promote best practises, identify the most appropriate surveillance activities, and optimise the use of resources. Such guidance is aimed at policymakers and diverse stakeholders and is intended to be used as a framework for the implementation of entomological surveillance programmes. It will also be useful to collaborate and share information with health professionals involved in other areas of disease surveillance. Medical entomologists and vector control professionals will be able to refer to this report to advocate for tailored entomological surveillance strategies. The main threats targeted in this review are the vectors of dengue virus, chikungunya virus, Zika virus, West Nile virus, and Rift Valley fever virus. The vectors of all these arboviruses are mosquitoes.

METHODS

Current knowledge on vector surveillance in the Mediterranean area is reviewed. The analysis was carried out by a collaboration of the medical entomology experts in the region, all of whom belong to the MediLabSecure network, which is currently funded by the European Union and represents an international effort encompassing 19 countries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region.

FINDINGS

Robust surveillance systems are required to address the globalisation of emerging arboviruses. The prevention and management of mosquito-borne viral diseases must be addressed in the prism of a One Health strategy that includes entomological surveillance as an integral part of the policy. Entomological surveillance systems should be designed according to the entomological and epidemiological context and must have well-defined objectives in order to effect a tailored and graduated response. We therefore rely on different scenarios according to different entomological and epidemiological contexts and set out detailed objectives of surveillance. The development of multidisciplinary networks involving both academics and public authorities will provide resources to address these health challenges by promoting good practises in surveillance (identification of surveillance aims, design of surveillance systems, data collection, dissemination of surveillance results, evaluation of surveillance activities) and through the sharing of effective knowledge and information. These networks will also contribute to capacity building and stronger collaborations between sectors at both the local and regional levels. Finally, concrete guidance is offered on the vector of the main arbovirus based on the current situation in the area.

Arboviruses isolated from the Barkedji mosquito-based surveillance system, 2012-2013

BACKGROUND

A mosquito-based arbovirus surveillance system was set up at Barkedji, Senegal after the first outbreak of Rift valley fever in West Africa in 1988. This system was recently updated using more sampling methods and collecting in greater number of ponds and villages sites.

METHODS

For the current study, mosquitoes were sampled biweekly between July and December 2012 and 2013 using CDC+CO2 light traps set at ground and canopy level, mosquito nets baited with goat, sheep, human or chicken, light traps baited with goat, sheep and chicken; bird-baited traps using pigeons or chickens placed either at the ground or canopy level. Collected mosquitoes were identified, pooled and screened for arboviruses.

RESULTS

A total of 42,969 mosquitoes in 4,429 pools were processed for virus isolation. Ten virus species were identified among 103 virus isolates. West Nile virus (WNV; 31 isolates), Barkedji virus (BARV; 18), Sindbis virus (SINV; 13), Usutu virus (USUV; 12), Acado virus (ACAV; 8), Ndumu virus (NDUV; 9), Sanar virus (SANV; 7), Bagaza virus (BAGV; 3), Rift valley fever virus (RVFV; 1), and Yaounde virus (YAOV; 1) were isolated from 9 ponds (91 strains) and 7 villages (12 strains). Only 3 virus species (WNV, NDU and SINV) were isolated from villages. The largest numbers of isolates were collected in October (29.1% of total isolates) and November (50.5%). Viruses were isolated from 14 mosquito species including Cx. neavei (69.9% of the strains), Cx. antennatus (9.7%), and Ma. uniformis (4.8%). NDUV, ACAV, and SINV are herein reported for the first time in the Barkedji area. Isolation of ACAV and SANV from a pool of male Ma. uniformis and USUV and BARV from a pool of male Cx. neavei, are reported for the first time to our knowledge.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that the Barkedji area is characterized by a high diversity of viruses of medical, veterinary and unknown importance. Arboviruses were first detected in July at the beginning of the rainy season and peaked in abundance in October and November. The Barkedji area, an enzootic focus of several potentially emerging arboviruses, should be surveilled annually to be prepared to deal with future disease emergence events.

Culex flavivirus infection in a Culex pipiens mosquito colony and its effects on vector competence for Rift Valley fever phlebovirus

Background

Rift Valley fever is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease that affects domestic ruminants and humans. Culex flavivirus is an insect-specific flavivirus that naturally exists in field mosquito populations. The influence of Culex flavivirus on Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) vector competence of Culex pipiens has not been investigated.

Methods

Culex flavivirus infection in a Cx. pipiens colony was studied by Culex flavivirus oral feeding and intrathoracical inoculation. Similarly, vector competence of Cx. pipiens infected with Culex flavivirus was evaluated for RVFV. Infection, dissemination, transmission rates and transmission efficiency of Culex flavivirus-infected and non-infected Cx. pipiens artificially fed with RVFV infected blood were assessed.

Results

Culex flavivirus was able to infect Cx. pipiens after intrathoracically inoculation in Cx. pipiens mosquitos but not after Culex flavivirus oral feeding. Culex flavivirus did not affect RVFV infection, dissemination and transmission in Cx. pipiens mosquitoes. RVFV could be detected from saliva of both the Culex flavivirus-positive and negative Cx. pipiens females without significant differences. Moreover, RVFV did not interfere with the Culex flavivirus infection in Cx. pipiens mosquitoes.

Conclusions

Culex flavivirus infected and non-infected Cx. pipiens transmit RVFV. Culex flavivirus existing in field-collected Cx. pipiens populations does not affect their vector competence for RVFV. Culex flavivirus may not be an efficient tool for RVFV control in mosquitoes.

Rift Valley fever virus and European mosquitoes: vector competence of Culex pipiens and Stegomyia albopicta (= Aedes albopictus)

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). Rift Valley fever affects a large number of species, including human, and has severe impact on public health and the economy, especially in African countries. The present study examined the vector competence of three different European mosquito species, Culex pipiens (Linnaeus, 1758) form molestus (Diptera: Culicidae), Culex pipiens hybrid form and Stegomyia albopicta (= Aedes albopictus) (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae). Mosquitoes were artificially fed with blood containing RVFV. Infection, disseminated infection and transmission efficiency were evaluated. This is the first study to assess the transmission efficiency of European mosquito species using a virulent RVFV strain. The virus disseminated in Cx. pipiens hybrid form and in S. albopicta. Moreover, infectious viral particles were isolated from saliva of both species, showing their RVFV transmission capacity. The presence of competent Cx. pipiens and S. albopicta in Spain indicates that an autochthonous outbreak of RVF may occur if the virus is introduced. These findings provide information that will help health authorities to set up efficient entomological surveillance and RVFV vector control programmes.

Rift Valley fever virus: strategies for maintenance, survival and vertical transmission in mosquitoes

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus causing severe disease in humans and ruminants. Spread of RVFV out of Africa has raised concerns that it could emerge in Europe or the USA. Virus persistence is dependent on successful infection of, replication in, and transmission to susceptible vertebrate and invertebrate hosts, modulated by virus-host and vector-virus interactions. The principal accepted theory for the long-term maintenance of RVFV involves vertical transmission (VT) of virus to mosquito progeny, with the virus surviving long inter-epizootic periods within the egg. This VT hypothesis, however, is yet to be comprehensively proven. Here, evidence for and against the VT of RVFV is reviewed along with the identification of factors limiting its detection in natural and experimental data. The observations of VT for other arboviruses in the genera Alphavirus, Flavivirus and Orthobunyavirus are discussed within the context of RVFV. The review concludes that VT of RVFV is likely but that current data are insufficient to irrefutably prove this hypothesis.

Risk mapping of West Nile virus circulation in Spain, 2015

West Nile fever is an emergent disease in Europe. The objective of this study was to conduct a predictive risk mapping of West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in Spain based on historical data of WNV circulation. Areas of Spain with evidence of WNV circulation were mapped based on data from notifications to the surveillance systems and a literature review. A logistic regression-based spatial model was used to assess the probability of WNV circulation. Data were analyzed at municipality level. Mean temperatures of the period from June to October, presence of wetlands and presence of Special Protection Areas for birds were considered as potential predictors. Two predictors of WNV circulation were identified: higher temperature [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.07, 95% CI 1.82-2.35, p<0.01] and presence of wetlands (3.37, 95% CI 1.89-5.99, p<0.01). Model validations indicated good predictions: area under the ROC curve was 0.895 (95% CI 0.870-0.919) for internal validation and 0.895 (95% CI 0.840-0.951) for external validation. This model could support improvements of WNV risk- based surveillance in Spain. The importance of a comprehensive surveillance for WNF, including human, animal and potential vectors is highlighted, which could additionally result in model refinements.

Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.

Quantitative assessment of a spatial multicriteria model for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand, and application in Cambodia

The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI) virus is now considered endemic in several Asian countries. In Cambodia, the virus has been circulating in the poultry population since 2004, with a dramatic effect on farmers' livelihoods and public health. In Thailand, surveillance and control are still important to prevent any new H5N1 incursion. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but is a very challenging task in the absence of reliable disease data. In this work, we used spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to produce risk maps for HPAI H5N1 in poultry. We aimed to i) evaluate the performance of the MCDA approach to predict areas suitable for H5N1 based on a dataset from Thailand, comparing the predictive capacities of two sources of a priori knowledge (literature and experts), and ii) apply the best method to produce a risk map for H5N1 in poultry in Cambodia. Our results showed that the expert-based model had a very high predictive capacity in Thailand (AUC = 0.97). Applied in Cambodia, MCDA mapping made it possible to identify hotspots suitable for HPAI H5N1 in the Tonlé Sap watershed, around the cities of Battambang and Kampong Cham, and along the Vietnamese border.

Identifying Areas Suitable for the Occurrence of Rift Valley Fever in North Africa: Implications for Surveillance

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that has caused widespread outbreaks throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, with serious consequences for livestock-based economies and public health. Although there have never been any reports of RVF in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, it is a priority disease in the Maghreb, due to the threat of introduction of the virus through transboundary livestock movements or infected mosquito vectors. However, the implementation of surveillance activities and early warning contingency plans requires better knowledge of the epidemiological situation. We conducted a multicriteria decision analysis, integrating host distribution with a combination of important ecological factors that drive mosquito abundance, to identify hotspots and suitable time periods for RVF enzootic circulation (i.e. stable transmission at a low to moderate level for an extended period of time) and an RVF epizootic event (i.e. a sudden occurrence of a large number of infected animals over a large geographic area) in the Maghreb. We also modelled vector species distribution using available information on vector presence and habitat preference. We found that the northern regions of the Maghreb were moderately suitable for RVF enzootics, but highly suitable for RVF epizootics. The vector species distribution model identified these regions as the most favourable mosquito habitats. Due to the low density of animal hosts and arid conditions, the desert region showed low RVF suitability, except in oases. However, the presence of competent vectors in putative unsuitable areas underlines the need for further assessments of mosquito habitat preference. This study produced monthly RVF suitability maps useful for animal health managers and veterinary services involved in designing risk-based surveillance programmes. The suitability maps can be further enhanced using existing country-specific sources of information and by incorporating knowledge - as it becomes available - on the epidemiology of the disease and distribution of vectors in the Maghreb.

Identification of Suitable Areas for African Horse Sickness Virus Infections in Spanish Equine Populations

African horse sickness (AHS) is one of the most important vector-borne viral infectious diseases of equines, transmitted mainly by Culicoides spp. The re-emergence of Culicoides-borne diseases in Europe, such as the recent bluetongue (BT) or Schmallenberg outbreaks, has raised concern about the potential re-introduction and further spread of AHS virus (AHSV) in Europe. Spain has one of the largest European equine populations. In addition, its geographical, environmental and entomological conditions favour AHSV infections, as shown by the historical outbreaks in the 1990s. The establishment of risk-based surveillance strategies would allow the early detection and rapid control of any potential AHSV outbreak. This study aimed to identify the areas and time periods that are suitable or at high risk for AHS occurrence in Spain using a GIS-based multicriteria decision framework. Specifically risk maps for AHS occurrence were produced using a weighted linear combination of the main risk factors of disease, namely extrinsic incubation period, equine density and distribution of competent Culicoides populations. Model results revealed that the south-western and north-central areas of Spain and the Balearic Islands are the areas at the highest risk for AHSV infections, particularly in late summer months. Conversely, Galicia, Castile and Leon and La Rioja can be considered as low-risk regions. This result was validated with historical AHS and BT outbreaks in Spain, and with the Culicoides vector distribution area. The model results, together with current Spanish equine production features, should provide the foundations to design risk-based and more cost-effective surveillance strategies for the early detection and rapid control potential of AHS outbreaks in Spain.

Remote sensing, land cover changes, and vector-borne diseases: use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery to map the risk of occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Ghardaïa, Algeria

Ghardaïa, central Algeria, experienced a major outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in 2005. Two Leishmania species occur in this region: Leishmania major (MON-25) and Leishmania killicki (MON-301). The two species are transmitted respectively by the sandflies Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti and probably involve rodent reservoirs with different ecologies, suggesting distinct epidemiological patterns and distribution areas. The aims of this study were to establish risk maps for each Leishmania species in Ghardaïa, taking into account the specificities of their vectors and reservoirs biotopes, using land cover and topographical characteristics derived from remote sensing imagery. Using expert and bibliographic knowledge, habitats of vectors and reservoirs were mapped. Hazard maps, defined as areas of presence of both vectors and reservoirs, were then combined with vulnerability maps, defined as areas with human presence, to map the risk of CL occurrence due to each species. The vector habitat maps and risk maps were validated using available entomological data and epidemiological data. The results showed that remote sensing analysis can be used to map and differentiate risk areas for the two species causing CL and identify palm groves and areas bordering the river crossing the city as areas at risk of CL due to L. major, whereas more limited rocky hills on the outskirts of the city are identified as areas at risk of CL due to L. killicki. In the current context of urban development in Ghardaïa, this study provides useful information for the local authorities on the respective risk areas for CL caused by both parasites, in order to take prevention and control measures to prevent future CL outbreaks.