A Prognostic Model for Early Post-Treatment Outcome of Elderly Patients With Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Impact of age on surgical outcomes for world federation of neurosurgical societies grade I and II aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: a novel prognostic model using recursive partitioning analysis

This study aimed to evaluate age as a prognostic factor and develop a comprehensive prognostic model for patients undergoing clipping surgery for World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade I/II aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). We retrospectively investigated 188 patients with WFNS grade I/II SAH who underwent microsurgical clipping at our institute between December 2010 and January 2020. The data of 176 patients (75 with grade I and 101 with grade II) were analysed. Data on patient demographics, aneurysm characteristics, SAH factors, surgical details, and clinical outcomes were collected. Prognostic factors were assessed using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses, and recursive partitioning analysis. Favourable outcomes (mRS 0-2) were observed in 76% of patients. Age, a significant negative prognostic factor in multivariable analysis (odds ratio 0.55, 95% confidence interval 0.40-0.76, p < 0.001), was cutoff at 70 years by the receiver operating characteristic curve. Patients aged ≤ 70 years had significantly better outcomes than those aged > 70 years (84% vs. 46%, respectively; p < 0.001). Epileptic seizures were significantly associated with poor outcomes in older adults (p < 0.001). A prognostic model (favourable, intermediate, and poor) based on age and postoperative adverse events showed significantly different outcomes between age groups (p < 0.001). Age was a stronger prognostic factor than WFNS grading for patients with grade I/II SAH undergoing microsurgical clipping. For patients aged ≤ 70 years, precise microsurgeries with fewer complications were associated with favourable outcomes beyond WFNS grade. For older patients, postoperative intensive seizure management may prevent poor outcomes.

An overview of decision-making in cerebrovascular treatment strategies: Part II - Ruptured aneurysms

Introduction

Decision-making for the treatment of ruptured aneurysms is an intricate process, which involves several factors. There has been a rapid advancement in endovascular, but also in the surgical treating field of ruptured intracranial aneurysms, with a growing body of evidence for either treatment technique.

Research question

As there is a wide variety of treatment possibilities, it can be hard to understand the intricacies which lie behind the decision-making process for a given aneurysm.

Materials and methods

An overview of the most relevant literature in decision-making on ruptured intracranial aneurysms is given.

Results

Different decision-altering factors were identified, which can be divided into information from the general evidence, to influential factors such as the patient's age, initial presenting status, and aneurysmal factors such as size, morphology and aneurysmal location.

Discussion and conclusion

This review provides an evidence-based overview of the most pertinent literature on these different aspects of decision-making in ruptured aneurysm cases and provides some recommendations after each of these segments. As always, all different aspects of the patient and aneurysmal factors should be taken into consideration before coming to a conclusion, as to obtain the best possible result for an individual patient.

Frailty is a Predictor of Increased Readmissions and Increased Postoperative Complications After Elective Treatment of Unruptured Aneurysms

INTRODUCTION

Frailty is a state of decreased physiologic reserve associated with adverse treatment outcomes across surgical specialties. We sought to determine whether frailty affected patient outcomes after elective treatment (open microsurgical clipping or endovascular therapy [EVT]) of unruptured cerebral aneurysms (UCAs).

METHODS

The National Readmissions Database was queried from 2010 to 2014 to identify patients who had a known UCA and underwent elective clipping or EVT. Frailty was assessed using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups frailty indicator tool. Multivariable exact logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the associations between frailty and the primary outcome variables of 30- and 90-day readmissions, complications, length of stay (LOS), and patient disposition.

RESULTS

Of 18,483 patients who underwent elective treatment for UCAs, 358 (1.9%) met the criteria for frailty. After adjusting for patient- and hospital-based factors, frailty (30-day: odds ratio [OR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-2.17; P = 0.01; 90-day: OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.05-2.06; P = 0.02) and clipping versus EVT (30-day: OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.85-2.43; P < 0.000; 90-day: OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.59-2.03; P < 0.0001) were associated with increased readmission rates. Furthermore, frailty was associated with an increased rate of complications (surgical: OR, 2.91; 95% CI, 2.27-3.72; P < 0.0001; neurological: OR, 3.04; 95% CI, 2.43-3.81; P < 0.0001; major: OR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.96-3.84; P < 0.0001), increased LOSs (incidence rate ratio, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.59-3.66; P < 0.0001), and an increased rate of nonroutine disposition (OR, 3.94; 95% CI, 2.91-5.34; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty was associated with an increased likelihood of 30- and 90-day readmissions after elective treatment of UCAs. Frailty was notably associated with several postoperative complications, longer LOSs, and nonroutine disposition in the treatment of UCAs.

Frailty as a Predictor of Outcomes in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Frailty is an emerging concept in clinical practice used to predict outcomes and dictate treatment algorithms. Frail patients, especially older adults, are at higher risk for adverse outcomes. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a neurosurgical emergency associated with high morbidity and mortality rates that have previously been shown to correlate with frailty. However, the relationship between treatment selection and post-treatment outcomes in frail aSAH patients is not established. We conducted a meta-analysis of the relevant literature in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar using "Subarachnoid hemorrhage AND frailty" and "subarachnoid hemorrhage AND frail" as search terms. Data on cohort age, frailty measurements, clinical grading systems, and post-treatment outcomes were extracted. Of 74 studies identified, four studies were included, with a total of 64,668 patients. Percent frailty was 30.4% under a random-effects model in all aSAH patients (p < 0.001). Overall mortality rate of aSAH patients was 11.7% when using a random-effects model (p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in mortality rate between frail and non-frail aSAH patients, but this analysis only included two studies and should be interpreted cautiously. Age and clinical grading, rather than frailty, independently predicted outcomes and mortality in aSAH patients.

Chronological Change of the Clinical Features and Treatment Outcomes for Subarachnoid Hemorrhage in Japan: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) treatment has progressed, and patients are rapidly aging in Japan. Consequently, dynamic changes must have emerged in the clinical practice of SAH. This study aimed to elucidate chronological changes of aneurysmal SAH and the prognostic factors in the previous quarter century in Japan. We conducted a retrospective survey regarding aneurysmal SAH in eight institutions in Japan. The study included 848, 863, and 781 patients in the first (1989-1993), second (1999-2003), and third (2009-2013) periods, respectively. The chronological changes of factors that influenced the poor outcomes and differences between the nonelderly (<75 years) and elderly patients were investigated. Mean age was significantly higher in patients in the third period (61.4 years) than in those in the other two periods (first, 57.8 years; second, 59.5 years). During these periods, the proportion of good outcomes did not change; however, the mortality rate significantly decreased from 19% in the first period to 11% and 9.2% in the second and third periods, respectively. The poor outcome was mainly caused by the significantly higher incidence of systemic complication and procedural complication in the first period and the significantly lower incidence of delayed ischemic neurological deficit in the third period. The elderly patients had significantly poorer clinical outcomes than the nonelderly ones. During the last 25 years, the age of patients with aneurysmal SAH has rapidly increased. The study results may contribute to the improvement of the treatment strategy of SAH in advanced countries with a rapidly aging population.

A visualized MAC nomogram online predicts the risk of three-month mortality in Chinese elderly aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients undergoing endovascular coiling

OBJECTIVE

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is an aggressive disease with higher mortality rate in the elderly population. Unfortunately, the previous models for predicting clinical prognosis are still not accurate enough. Therefore, we aimed to construct and validate a visualized nomogram model to predict online the 3-month mortality in elderly aSAH patients undergoing endovascular coiling.

METHOD

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 209 elderly aSAH patients at People's Hospital of Hunan Province, China. A nomogram was developed based on multivariate logistic regression and forward stepwise regression analysis, then validated using the bootstrap validation method (n = 1000). In addition, the performance of the nomogram was evaluated by various indicators to prove its clinical value.

RESULT

Morbid pupillary reflex, age, and using a breathing machine were independent predictors of 3-month mortality. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.901 (95% CI: 0.853-0.950), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.4328). Besides, the bootstrap validation method internally validated the nomogram with an area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) of 0.896 (95% CI: 0.846-0.945). Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) indicated the nomogram's excellent clinical utility and applicability.

CONCLUSION

An easily applied visualized nomogram model named MAC (morbid pupillary reflex-age-breathing machine) based on three accessible factors has been successfully developed. The MAC nomogram is an accurate and complementary tool to support individualized decision-making and emphasizes that patients with higher risk of mortality may require closer monitoring. Furthermore, a web-based online version of the risk calculator would greatly contribute to the spread of the model in this field.

Preoperative prognostic nutrition index can independently predict the 6-month prognosis of elderly patients undergoing neurosurgical clipping for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

The number of elderly patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is increasing annually. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is used as a novel and valuable prognostic marker for various neoplastic diseases and other critical illnesses. This study aimed to identify the short-term prognostic value of preoperative PNI in elderly patients who underwent neurosurgical clipping for aSAH. This retrospective study included elderly patients with aSAH who underwent neurosurgical clipping from January 2018 to December 2020. Clinical variables and 6-month outcomes were collected and compared. Epidemiological data and effect factors of prognosis were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyses were used to evaluate the predictive value of preoperative PNI. Multiple logistic regression was performed to establish a nomogram. A total of 124 elderly patients were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative PNI (odds ratio (OR), 0.779; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.689-0.881; P < 0.001), Hunt-Hess grade (OR, 3.291; 95%CI, 1.816-5.966; P < 0.001), and hydrocephalus (OR, 9.423; 95%CI, 2.696-32.935; P < 0.001) were significant predictors. The area under the ROC curve of PNI was 0.829 (95% CI, 0.755-0.903; P < 0.001) with a sensitivity and specificity of 68.4% and 83.3%, respectively, and the cutoff value was 46.36. Patients with preoperative PNI of < 46.36 had a significantly unfavorable 6-months prognosis (F = 40.768, P < 0.001). Preoperative PNI is independently correlated with the 6-month prognosis in elderly patients who undergo neurosurgical clipping for aSAH.

A 90-Day Prognostic Model Based on the Early Brain Injury Indicators after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: the TAPS Score

This study aimed to establish a new scoring model based on the early brain injury (EBI) indicators to predict the 90-day functional outcomes in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). We retrospectively enrolled 825 patients and prospectively enrolled 108 patients with aSAH who underwent surgical clipping or endovascular coiling (derivation cohort = 640; validation cohort = 185; prospective cohort = 108) in our institute. We established a logistic regression model based on independent risk factors associated with 90-day unfavorable outcomes. The discrimination of the prognostic model was assessed by the area under the curve in a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and a calibration plot were used to evaluate the calibration of the prediction model. The developed scoring model named "TAPS" (total score, 0-7 points) included the following admission variables: age > 55 years old, WFNS grade of 4-5, mFS grade of 3-4, Graeb score of 5-12, white blood cell count > 11.28 × 109/L, and surgical clipping. The model showed good discrimination with the area under the curve in the derivation, validation, and prospective cohorts which were 0.816 (p < 0.001, 95%CI = 0.77-0.86), 0.810 (p < 0.001, 95%CI = 0.73-0.90), and 0.803 (p < 0.001, 95%CI = 0.70-0.91), respectively. The model also demonstrated good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test: X2 = 1.75, df = 8, p = 0.988). Compared with other predictive models, TAPS is an easy handle tool for predicting the 90-day unfavorable outcomes of aSAH patients, which can help clinicians better understand the concept of EBI and quickly identify those patients at risk of poor prognosis, providing more positive treatment strategies. Trial registration: NCT04785976. Registered 5 March 2021-retrospectively registered, http://www.clinicaltrials.gov .

Higher Hospital Frailty Risk Score is associated with increased complications and healthcare resource utilization after endovascular treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms

AIM

To use the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) to investigate the impact of frailty on complication rates and healthcare resource utilization in patients who underwent endovascular treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed using the 2016-2019 National Inpatient Sample database. All adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing endovascular treatment for IAs after subarachnoid hemorrhage were identified using ICD-10-CM codes. Patients were categorized into frailty cohorts: low (HFRS <5), intermediate (HFRS 5-15) and high (HFRS >15). Patient demographics, adverse events, length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, and total cost of admission were assessed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of prolonged LOS, increased cost, and non-routine discharge.

RESULTS

Of the 33 840 patients identified, 7940 (23.5%) were found to be low, 20 075 (59.3%) intermediate and 5825 (17.2%) high frailty by HFRS criteria. The rate of encountering any adverse event was significantly greater in the higher frailty cohorts (low: 59.9%; intermediate: 92.4%; high: 99.2%, p<0.001). There was a stepwise increase in mean LOS (low: 11.7±8.2 days; intermediate: 18.7±14.1 days; high: 26.6±20.1 days, p<0.001), mean total hospital cost (low: $62 888±37 757; intermediate: $99 670±63 446; high: $134 937±80 331, p<0.001), and non-routine discharge (low: 17.3%; intermediate: 44.4%; high: 69.4%, p<0.001) with increasing frailty. On multivariate regression analysis, a similar stepwise impact was found in prolonged LOS (intermediate: OR 2.38, p<0.001; high: OR 4.49, p<0.001)], total hospital cost (intermediate: OR 2.15, p<0.001; high: OR 3.62, p<0.001), and non-routine discharge (intermediate: OR 2.13, p<0.001; high: OR 4.17, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that greater frailty as defined by the HFRS was associated with increased complications, LOS, total costs, and non-routine discharge.

Utility of frailty as a predictor of acute kidney injury in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with poor outcome in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients (aSAH). Frailty has recently been demonstrated to correlate with elevated mortality and morbidity; its impact on predicting AKI and mortality in aSAH patients has not been investigated.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluating risk factors and predictors for AKI in aSAH patients.

METHODS

aSAH patients from a single-center's prospectively maintained database were retrospectively evaluated for development of AKI within 14 days of admission. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were collected. The effect of frailty and other risk factors were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 213 aSAH patients, 53 (33.1%) were frail and 12 (5.6%) developed AKI. Admission serum creatinine (sCr) and peak sCr within 48 h were higher in frail patients. AKI patients showed a trend towards higher frailty. Mortality was significantly higher in AKI than non-AKI aSAH patients. Frailty was a poor predictor of AKI when controlling for Hunt and Hess (HH) grade or age. HH grade ≥ 4 strongly predicted AKI when controlling for frailty.

CONCLUSION

AKI in aSAH patients carries a poor prognosis. The HH grade appears to have superior utility as a predictor of AKI in aSAH patients than mFI.

Relevance of presenting risks of frailty, sarcopaenia and osteopaenia to outcomes from aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

INTRODUCTION

Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) is a condition with significant morbidity and mortality. Traditional markers of aSAH have established their utility in the prediction of aSAH outcomes while frailty markers have been validated in other surgical specialties. We aimed to compare the predictive value of frailty indices and markers of sarcopaenia and osteopaenia, against the traditional markers for aSAH outcomes.

METHODS

An observational study in a tertiary neurosurgical unit on 51 consecutive patients with ruptured aSAH was performed. The best performing marker in predicting the modified Rankin scale (mRS) on discharge was selected and an appropriate threshold for the definition of frail and non-frail was derived. We compared various frailty indices (modified frailty index 11, and 5, and the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program score [NSQIP]) and markers of sarcopaenia and osteopaenia (temporalis [TMT] and zygoma thickness), against traditional markers (age, World Federation of Neurological Surgery and modified Fisher scale [MFS]) for aSAH outcomes. Univariable and multivariable analysis was then performed for various inpatient and long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

TMT was the best performing marker in our cohort with an AUC of 0.82, Somers' D statistic of 0.63 and Tau statistic 0.25. Of the frailty scores, the NSQIP performed the best (AUC 0.69), at levels comparable to traditional markers of aSAH, such as MFS (AUC 0.68). The threshold of 5.5 mm in TMT thickness was found to have a specificity of 0.93, sensitivity of 0.51, positive predictive value of 0.95 and negative predictive value of 0.42. After multivariate analysis, patients with TMT ≥ 5.5 mm (defined as non-frail), were less likely to experience delayed cerebral ischaemia (OR 0.11 [0.01 - 0.93], p = 0.042), any complications (OR 0.20 [0.06 - 0.069], p = 0.011), and had a larger proportion of favourable mRS on discharge (95.0% vs. 58.1%, p = 0.024) and at 3-months (95.0% vs. 64.5%, p = 0.048). However, the gap between unfavourable and favourable mRS was insignificant at the comparison of 1-year outcomes.

CONCLUSION

TMT, as a marker of sarcopaenia, correlated well with the presenting status, and outcomes of aSAH. Frailty, as defined by NSQIP, performed at levels equivalent to aSAH scores of clinical relevance, suggesting that, in patients presenting with acute brain injury, both non-neurological and neurological factors were complementary in the determination of eventual clinical outcomes. Further validation of these markers, in addition to exploration of other relevant frailty indices, may help to better prognosticate aSAH outcomes and allow for a precision medicine approach to decision making and optimization of best outcomes.

A Comparison of LASSO Regression and Tree-Based Models for Delayed Cerebral Ischemia in Elderly Patients With Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Backgrounds

As a most widely used machine learning method, tree-based algorithms have not been applied to predict delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) in elderly patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Hence, this study aims to develop the conventional regression and tree-based models and determine which model has better prediction performance for DCI development in hospitalized elderly patients after aSAH.

Methods

This was a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study analyzing elderly patients with aSAH aged 60 years and older. We randomly divided the multicentral data into model training and validation cohort in a ratio of 70–30%. One conventional regression and tree-based model, such as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), was developed. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) with 95% CI were employed to evaluate the model prediction performance. A DeLong test was conducted to calculate the statistical differences among models. Finally, we figured the importance weight of each feature to visualize the contribution on DCI.

Results

There were 111 and 42 patients in the model training and validation cohorts, and 53 cases developed DCI. According to AUC-ROC value in the model internal validation, DT of 0.836 (95% CI: 0.747–0.926, p = 0.15), RF of 1 (95% CI: 1–1, p < 0.05), and XGBoost of 0.931 (95% CI: 0.885–0.978, p = 0.01) outperformed LASSO of 0.793 (95% CI: 0.692–0.893). However, the LASSO scored a highest AUC-ROC value of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.8–0.989) than DT of 0.764 (95% CI: 0.6–0.928, p = 0.05), RF of 0.821 (95% CI: 0.683–0.959, p = 0.27), and XGBoost of 0.865 (95% CI: 0.751–0.979, p = 0.69) in independent external validation. Moreover, the LASSO had a highest AUC-PR value of 0.681 than DT of 0.615, RF of 0.667, and XGBoost of 0.622 in external validation. In addition, we found that CT values of subarachnoid clots, aneurysm therapy, and white blood cell counts were the most important features for DCI in elderly patients with aSAH.

Conclusions

The LASSO had a superior prediction power than tree-based models in external validation. As a result, we recommend the conventional LASSO regression model to predict DCI in elderly patients with aSAH.

Long-Term Outcomes of Elderly Patients with Poor-Grade Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Long-term outcomes after surgical treatment and intensive care have not been investigated in elderly patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). This study aimed to analyze 12-month outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with poor-grade aSAH who were at least age 70 years.

METHODS

We performed a single-center, retrospective study including poor-grade (World Federation of Neurological Societies [WFNS] grades IV and V) aSAH patients who were at least age 70 years, were admitted to our stroke center, and received aneurysmal treatment between April 2012 and September 2018. The clinical outcomes were evaluated at months 3 and 12. Univariate/multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent prognostic factors of good neurologic outcomes (modified Rankin Scale score 0-3). These factors included sex, age, WFNS grade, Fisher group, delayed cerebral ischemia, aneurysm treatment, aneurysm size, aneurysm location, and blood examination data in the 14 days post subarachnoid hemorrhage.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients with good outcomes (modified Rankin Scale score 0-3) was increased at 12 months compared with that at 3 months. No intracerebral hemorrhage was a significant predictor of good neurologic outcomes at 3 months (P = 0.03). The absence of delayed cerebral ischemia and small fluctuations in the average absolute daily difference from normal sodium levels were significant predictors of good neurologic outcomes at months 3 and 12 (P = 0.04 and P = 0.03, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The absence of delayed cerebral ischemia and small fluctuations in the average absolute daily difference from the normal sodium levels were independently associated with good neurologic outcomes at 12 months in elderly patients. Intracerebral hemorrhage did not appear to affect long-term outcomes. These findings suggest that elderly patients with severe subarachnoid hemorrhage should not be excluded from receiving surgical treatment on the basis of their age alone.

Clinical Outcome of Elderly Patients with Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Validation of Modality Assignment Based on Aneurysmal Morphology and Location

BACKGROUND

The number of elderly patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage is increasing. Elderly patients have been postulated to benefit more from endovascular coiling, compared with neurosurgical clipping. However, we based our therapeutic modality on the morphology and location of the aneurysms, rather than patients' age or their World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade. The aim of this study was to investigate the validity of our therapeutic modality over earlier approaches by assessing their clinical outcomes.

METHODS

The study sample included 539 patients who underwent surgical procedures between January 2010 and May 2019. Baseline characteristics, aneurysmal morphology and location, surgical and clinical complications, and clinical outcomes were compared between elderly (defined as aged 75 years or older) and young patients.

RESULTS

There were 124 elderly patients (23.0%) in the sample. Eighty-five elderly patients (68.5%) received neurosurgical clipping, whereas 67.0% of the young patients (P = 0.827) received neurosurgical clipping. Of the elderly patients who had a poor World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade, 49.4% and 48.7% underwent neurosurgical clipping and endovascular coiling, respectively (P = 1.000). Elderly patients had fewer favorable outcomes (21.8%) relative to young patients (61.8%; P < 0.001). There were no significant differences in the rate of favorable outcomes between patients undergoing neurosurgical clipping relative to endovascular coiling (21.2% vs. 23.1%; P = 0.818).

CONCLUSIONS

Neurosurgical clipping and endovascular coiling yield comparable clinical outcomes in elderly and young patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage. These findings indicate that using a therapeutic modality based on aneurysmal morphology and location may be an effective treatment approach.

The changing face of neurosurgery for the older person

Increased life expectancy and illness prevention and treatment have led to a growing population of older patients. These changes in patient population are apparent in neurosurgery; however, relatively little is reported about specific outcomes and prognostication in this group. This review summarises the challenges and management changes occurring in the treatment of three common neurosurgical pathologies; aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage, head injury, and haemorrhagic stroke. A move towards less invasive neurosurgical techniques has implications on the risk-benefit profile of interventions. This creates the opportunity to intervene in older patients with greater co-morbidity, as long as improved outcomes can be evidenced. A critical part of assessing appropriateness for surgical intervention in older patients may be to change from a mindset of age to one of frailty and growing interest in scales assessing this may aid treatment decisions in the future.

Low total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein are independent predictors of poor outcomes following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: A preliminary report

INTRODUCTION

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is devastating, with delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) significantly contributing to the high morbidity and mortality rates. Cholesterol has been studied as a measure of nutritional status in other neurological pathologies, but reports examining cholesterol's effects on aSAH outcomes are sparse. This study aimed to elucidate the effect of low total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) on mortality and DCI following aSAH.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study at a quaternary academic medical center between June 2014 and July 2018. All patients had aSAH confirmed by digital subtraction angiography and had TC measured on admission. Primary outcomes were mortality and DCI. Secondary outcome was radiographic vasospasm. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed.

RESULTS

There were 75 aSAH patients, with an average age of 58.7 ± 1.7 (range: 14-89) and Hunt & Hess score of 2.8 ± 0.1, included for analysis. Those with a low TC < 160 mg/dL had 3 times increased odds of DCI (OR = 3.4; 95 %CI: 1.3-9.0; p = 0.0175) and a nearly 5 times increased odds of death (OR = 4.9; 95 %CI: 1.1-18.3; p = 0.0339). Low HDL < 40 mg/dL was associated with 12 times increased odds of DCI (OR = 12.3; 95 %CI: 2.7-56.4; p = 0.0003) but no significant differences in death (p = 0.2205). In multivariate analysis, low TC was an independent risk factor for increased mortality (OR = 5.6; 95 %CI: 1.2-27.6; p = 0.0335) while low HDL was associated with increased risk for DCI (OR = 17.9; 95 %CI: 3.1-104.4; p = 0.0013). There was no effect of TC or HDL on radiographic vasospasm.

CONCLUSIONS

Low TC and HDL are independent predictors of increased mortality and DCI, respectively, following aSAH. Low TC and HDL may be markers of poor overall health, in addition to having some pathophysiological effect on cerebral vasculature. These results may have practical implications for the improvement of aSAH prognostication and management.

Increasing Frailty Predicts Worse Outcomes and Increased Complications After Angiogram-Negative Subarachnoid Hemorrhages

BACKGROUND

The effect of frailty on outcomes after angiogram-negative subarachnoid hemorrhages (ANSAH) is currently unknown. We investigated frailty's effects on ANSAH outcomes, including mortality and in-hospital complications.

METHODS

Patients from 2014 to 2018 with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage and cerebral angiograms with an unidentifiable hemorrhage source were retrospectively reviewed. The cohort was divided into non-frail (modified frailty index [mFI] = 0) and frail (mFI ≥1) groups based on pre-hemorrhage characteristics. Primary outcomes were mortality rate and discharge location. Multivariate logistic regression analyses determined predictors of ANSAH severity and primary endpoints. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to discriminate risks for primary endpoints comparing mFI, Hunt and Hess and Fisher scores, and age.

RESULTS

We included 75 patients with a mean age of 55.4 ± 1.5 years, comprising 42 (56%) women, and 41 (54.7%) with perimesencephalic bleeds. A total of 32 of 75 (42.7%) patients were classified as frail. Frail individuals were 6.2 times less likely to be discharged home (odds ratio [OR] = 0.16; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05-0.5; P = 0.001) and all mortalities occurred in frail patients (12.5% [n = 4 of 32]; P = 0.030). The only independent predictor of mortality was higher mFI (OR = 5.4; 95% CI: 1.5-19.1; P = 0.009), and lower mFI best predicted discharge home (OR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.17-0.88; P = 0.023). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that mFI best predicted both mortality (area under the curve = 0.9718; P = 0.002) and discharge home (area under the curve = 0.7998; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Frail ANSAH patients have poorer outcomes and increased mortality compared with non-frail patients. Although prospective study is needed, this information significantly impacts our understanding of ANSAH outcomes and frailty should be used for prognostication as it was a better predictor than Hunt and Hess or Fisher scores.

Alanine Aminotransferase Predicts Outcomes in Elderly Patients with Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

With the aging of the world population, the number of elderly patients suffering from aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is gradually growing. We aim to investigate the potential association between plasma ALT level and clinical complications of elderly aSAH patients, and explore its predictive value for clinical outcomes of elderly aSAH patients.

METHODS

Between January 2013 and March 2018, 152 elderly aSAH patients were analyzed in this study. Clinical information, imaging findings and laboratory data were reviewed. According to the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), clinical outcomes at 3 months were classified into favorable outcomes (GOS 4-5) and poor outcomes (GOS 1-3). Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the indicators associated with poor outcomes, and receiver curves (ROC) and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) were used to detect the accuracy of the indicator.

RESULTS

A total of 48 (31.6 %) elderly patients with aSAH had poor outcome at 3 months. In addition to ICH, IVH, Hunt-Hess 4 or 5 Grade and Modified Fisher 3 or 4 Grade, plasma ALT level was also strongly associated with poor outcome of elderly aSAH patients. After adjusting for other covariates, plasma ALT level remained independently associated with pulmonary infection (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.00-1.09; P = 0.018), cardiac complications (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.08; P = 0.014) and urinary infection (OR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.08; P = 0.032). Besides, plasma ALT level had a predictive ability in the occurrence of systemic complications (AUC 0.676; 95% CI: 0.586- 0.766; P<0.001) and poor outcome (AUC 0.689; 95% CI: 0.605-0.773; P<0.001) in elderly aSAH patients.

CONCLUSION

Plasma ALT level of elderly patients with aSAH was significantly associated with systemic complications, and had additional clinical value in predicting outcomes. Given that plasma ALT levels on admission could help to identify high-risk elderly patients with aSAH, these findings are of clinical relevance.

Risk Factors for Unfavorable Outcome in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Revisited; Odds and Ends

Objectives

To evaluate the odds for unfavorable outcome of each risk factor and a combination of them in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) undergoing surgical clipping in Southern Iran.

Methods

A total of 367 patients who were operated between March 2007 and March 2016 due to aneurysmal SAH were analyzed according to patients' factors, aneurysm characteristics and intra-operative data. Correlation between outcomes of patients measured by modified Rankin Scale at 6-months with each factor were analyzed. Market Basket analysis was also used to identify the odds of unfavorable outcome for combinations of factors.

Results

A total of 367 patients, including 199 females and 168 males with a mean age of 47.27± 11.53 years, who underwent operation between March 2007 and March 2016 due to aneurysmal SAH were analyzed. Unlike gender, higher age was associated with unfavorable outcome. Ischemic heart disease, Duration of operation and amount of bleeding were also found to increase the odds of unfavorable outcome (p=0.01, 0.02, 0.04 respectively). DM, Cigarette smoking and opium addiction as well as the location and multiplicity of aneurysms did not have an adverse effect on outcome. (p≥0.05).

Conclusion

Among the numerous risk factors presumed to result in unfavorable outcome in aneurysmal SAH, only older age, duration of operation more than 60 minutes, previous known history of ischemic heart disease, poorer clinical grade and intra-operative bleeding more than 500 mL were found to be significant factors.

Development and Validation of the Procedure-Related Neurologic Complications Risk Score for Elderly Patients with Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Undergoing Endovascular Treatment

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to develop and validate a procedure-related neurologic complications (PNC) risk score for individual elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing endovascular treatment (EVT).

METHODS

Preoperatively collected data, including clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics of consecutive elderly patients (≥60 years), were used to develop a PNC risk predictive score based on the coefficients (β) of a multivariable logistic regression analysis. The PNC included intraprocedural rupture, thromboembolic events, and rebleeding within 30 days after EVT.

RESULTS

Overall, 520 elderly patients who underwent EVT were enrolled. At 30 days, the PNC rate was 13.08%. Six risk factors were independently associated with PNC and comprised the PNC score (PNC score, 0-16 points): hypertension (2 points), Hunt-Hess grade ≥4 (3 points), Fisher grade ≥3 (2 points), wide-necked aneurysm (2 points), with a bleb on the aneurysm sac (3 points), and aneurysm size (3-10 mm, 1 point; <3 mm, 4 points). The PNC score model predicted the risk of PNC at a sensitivity of 63.22% and specificity of 84.79%. Moreover, the PNC score demonstrated significant discrimination (area under curve, 0.799; P < 0.001) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.319). Excellent prediction, discrimination, and calibration properties were reproduced by the internal validation group with bootstrapping techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

The PNC score can be an easily applicable tool for predicting the risk of PNC for individual elderly patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms undergoing EVT. Our study provides large case-based evidence supporting the integration of individual clinical, lesion, and procedure characteristics to predict PNC risk.