A longitudinal study of menthol cigarette use and smoking cessation among adult smokers in the US: Assessing the roles of racial disparities and E-cigarette use

A Longitudinal Analysis of Flavored Cigar Use and Cigar Smoking Cessation Among US Adults

BACKGROUND

Flavorings in cigars increase their appeal, mask the harsh taste of tobacco, and may hinder successful cigar smoking cessation; however, limited evidence has examined whether flavors are associated with short- or long-term cigar smoking cessation.

AIMS AND METHODS

Using restricted data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study Waves 1-5, we examined whether flavored cigar use was associated with 30-day-plus and 1-year-plus cigar smoking cessation among US adults. Multivariable discrete-time survival models were fit to a nationally representative sample of US adult (18+) respondents who had a current, established cigar use, smoked five or more days in the past 30 days, and did not exclusively smoke traditional premium cigars at baseline. Models adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, income, cigar and cigarette smoking intensity, and blunt use.

RESULTS

At baseline, 44.6% of respondents (n = 674) were 18-34 years old, 75.0% were male, 56.7% were non-Hispanic White, 78.9% had household incomes of <$50,000, and 56.2% smoked flavored cigars. In fully adjusted models, flavored cigar use was associated with a lower risk of 30-day-plus (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.60, 0.97) but not 1-year-plus cigar smoking cessation (HR = 0.81, 95% = 0.62, 1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that flavored cigar use was associated with a lower risk of short-term but not long-term cigar smoking cessation. More work is needed to understand the dynamics of cigar smoking transitions, including initiation, cessation, and relapse, particularly in larger cohorts and among those who exclusively use cigars or dual-use cigars and cigarettes.

IMPLICATIONS

As local and some state jurisdictions continue to adopt partial or complete bans of flavored cigar products and the United States Food and Drug Administration considers a national ban of all characterizing flavors in cigars, there is a need for more longitudinal work examining the associations between flavorings in cigars and short and long-term cigar-smoking behaviors, including but not limited to initiation, cessation, intensity of use, and relapse, particularly in diverse cohorts.

Examining the predictive utility of behavioral economic demand indices and subjective effects on the actualized reinforcing value of menthol cigarettes and potential alternatives

INTRODUCTION

Considering recent and proposed bans on menthol cigarettes, methods are needed to understand the substitutability of potential menthol cigarette alternatives (MCAs) for menthol cigarettes. This study examined the prospective relationship between behavioral economic demand indices and subjective effects of usual brand menthol cigarettes (UBMC) and preferred MCAs with subsequent performance on a laboratory-based concurrent-choice task comparing UBMC and MCAs.

METHODS

Eighty participants who typically smoked menthol cigarettes completed this clinical lab study. After sampling each product, participants completed the cigarette purchase task (CPT) and modified cigarette evaluation questionnaire (mCEQ). Following one-week of substituting their preferred MCA for their UBMC, participants completed a 90-min concurrent-choice self-administration task comparing their UBMC and preferred MCA. Linear regression models explored associations between CPT demand indices and mCEQ subjective effects in the lab with subsequent response effort for UBMCs on the concurrent-choice task.

RESULTS

Three demand indices for UBMC were positively associated with UBMC response effort: Essential Value (EV; p=.02), Omax (p=.02), and breakpoint (p=.04). Four CPT demand indices for the preferred MCA significantly corresponded with UBMC response effort: EV (p=.03), Pmax (p=.04), Omax (p=.03), and breakpoint (p=.03). Subjective effects captured by the mCEQ were not associated with response effort.

CONCLUSIONS

Demand indices reflecting Persistence (i.e., sensitivity to escalating price) predicted effort to obtain UBMC puffs on the concurrent-choice task. Among this sample, the CPT captured information on the relative reinforcing value (i.e., addiction potential) of combustible tobacco products similar to the longer self-administration task.

IMPLICATIONS

In an ever-changing product market, assessing the reinforcing efficacy of menthol cigarettes and putative substitutes quickly and with validity is an important methodological tool for understanding abuse liability. Results suggest that behavioral economic demand indices of cigarette purchase task efficiently capture information on the relative reinforcing value of usual brand menthol cigarettes and plausible alternative tobacco products, similar to a 90-min in-laboratory self-administration task.

Improving Prediction of Tobacco Use Over Time: Findings from Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

First-order Markov models assume future tobacco use behavior is dependent on current tobacco use and are often used to characterize patterns of tobacco use over time. Higher-order Markov models that assume future behavior is dependent on current and prior tobacco use may better estimate patterns of tobacco use.

AIMS AND METHODS

This study compared Markov models of different orders to examine whether incorporating information about tobacco use history improves model estimation of tobacco use and estimated tobacco use transition probabilities. We used data from four waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. In each Wave, a participant was categorized into one of the following tobacco use states: never smoker, former smoker, menthol cigarette smoker, non-menthol cigarette smoker, or e-cigarette/dual user. We compared first-, second-, and third-order Markov models using multinomial logistic regression and estimated transition probabilities between tobacco use states.

`RESULTS

The third-order model was the best fit for the data. The percentage of former smokers, menthol cigarette smokers, non-menthol cigarette smokers, and e-cigarette/dual users in Wave 3 that remained in the same tobacco use state in Wave 4 ranged from 63.4% to 97.2%, 29.2% to 89.8%, 34.8% to 89.7%, and 20.5% to 80.0%, respectively, dependent on tobacco use history. Individuals who were current tobacco users, but former smokers in the prior two years, were most likely to quit.

CONCLUSIONS

Transition probabilities between tobacco use states varied widely depending on tobacco use history. Higher-order Markov models improve estimation of tobacco use over time and can inform understanding of trajectories of tobacco use behavior.

IMPLICATIONS

Findings from this study suggest that transition probabilities between tobacco use states vary widely depending on tobacco use history. Tobacco product users (cigarette or e-cigarette/dual users) who were in the same tobacco use state in the prior two years were least likely to quit. Individuals who were current tobacco users, but former smokers in the prior two years, were most likely to quit. Quitting smoking for at least two years is an important milestone in the process of cessation.

Smoking cessation prevalence by menthol cigarette use and select demographics among adults in the United States, TUS-CPS, 2003-2019

People who smoke menthol cigarettes, particularly those who are non-Hispanic Black/African American, are less likely to achieve successful smoking cessation compared with people who smoke non-menthol cigarettes. This study examined the 2003-2019 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) harmonized data to estimate cross-sectional trends in cigarette smoking cessation among U.S. adults, stratified by menthol cigarette use, race/ethnicity, sex, and age. The analytic sample included respondents who smoked for ≥ 2 years (current users and former users who reported quitting during the past year). We tested cessation trends using orthogonal polynomial contrasts for overall, menthol, and non-menthol smoking cessation prevalence and stratified by race/ethnicity, sex, and age in logistic regression models. We also analyzed the 2018-2019 non-harmonized TUS-CPS data among recent quitters to examine differences in characteristics (e.g., demographic characteristics, smoking frequency, use of smoking cessation aids, switching to other tobacco products) by menthol cigarette use. We observed significant linear changes in prevalence trends for overall cigarette smoking cessation, menthol smoking cessation, and non-menthol smoking cessation (p < 0.0001 for all linear trends), and changes in menthol cessation among non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Other race/ethnicity categories during 2003-2019. In the 2018-2019 wave, we observed differences in menthol status for sex, race/ethnicity, age, and educational attainment. We did not observe differences for other characteristics. We observed changes in overall cigarette smoking cessation, menthol, and non-menthol smoking cessation prevalence during the study period; however, gains in cigarette smoking cessation were not experienced among non-Hispanic Black/African American adults who smoke.

Machine learning application for predicting smoking cessation among US adults: An analysis of waves 1-3 of the PATH study

Identifying determinants of smoking cessation is critical for developing optimal cessation treatments and interventions. Machine learning (ML) is becoming more prevalent for smoking cessation success prediction in treatment programs. However, only individuals with an intention to quit smoking cigarettes participate in such programs, which limits the generalizability of the results. This study applies data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH), a United States longitudinal nationally representative survey, to select primary determinants of smoking cessation and to train ML classification models for predicting smoking cessation among the general population. An analytical sample of 9,281 adult current established smokers from the PATH survey wave 1 was used to develop classification models to predict smoking cessation by wave 2. Random forest and gradient boosting machines were applied for variable selection, and the SHapley Additive explanation method was used to show the effect direction of the top-ranked variables. The final model predicted wave 2 smoking cessation for current established smokers in wave 1 with an accuracy of 72% in the test dataset. The validation results showed that a similar model could predict wave 3 smoking cessation of wave 2 smokers with an accuracy of 70%. Our analysis indicated that more past 30 days e-cigarette use at the time of quitting, fewer past 30 days cigarette use before quitting, ages older than 18 at smoking initiation, fewer years of smoking, poly tobacco past 30-days use before quitting, and higher BMI resulted in higher chances of cigarette cessation for adult smokers in the US.

Associations Between E-cigarette Use and E-cigarette Flavors With Cigarette Smoking Quit Attempts and Quit Success: Evidence From a U.S. Large, Nationally Representative 2018-2019 Survey

INTRODUCTION

Although many studies have examined the association between e-cigarette use and smoking cessation, fewer have considered the impact of e-cigarette flavors on cessation outcomes. This study extends previous studies by examining the effects of e-cigarette use and e-cigarette flavors on quit attempts and quit success of smoking.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used data from the 2018-2019 Tobacco Use Supplement-Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the associations between flavored e-cigarette use with quit attempts and quit success of smoking among individuals who smoked 12 months ago. Two current e-cigarette use definitions were used in these logistic regression analyses; currently use every day or some days versus 20+ days in the past 30 days.

RESULTS

Compared to those not using e-cigarettes, current every day or someday e-cigarette use with all nontobacco flavors had an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 2.9 (95% CI: 2.4 to 3.5) for quit attempts and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3 to 2.2) for quit success. 20+ days e-cigarette use with flavors had stronger associations with quit attempts (AOR = 4.2, 95% CI: 3.1 to 5.5) and quit success (AOR = 4.0, 95% CI: 2.9 to 5.4). E-cigarette users with nontobacco flavors were more likely to succeed in quitting compared to those exclusively using non-flavored or tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes. Menthol or mint flavor users had slightly higher odds of quit attempts and success than users of other nontobacco flavors.

CONCLUSIONS

E-cigarette use is positively associated with both making smoking quit attempts and quit success. Those using flavored e-cigarettes, particularly menthol or mint, are more likely to quit successfully.

IMPLICATIONS

E-cigarette use is positively associated with both making a quit attempt and quit success, and those using flavored e-cigarettes are more likely to successfully quit smoking, with no statistically significant differences between the use of menthol or mint-flavored e-cigarettes versus the use of other nontobacco flavored products. This suggests that the potential for e-cigarettes to help people who currently smoke quit could be maintained with the availability of menthol or mint-flavored e-cigarettes, even if other nontobacco flavored products, which are associated with e-cigarette use among youth, were removed from the market.

Characterizing tobacco and marijuana use among youth combustible tobacco users experiencing homelessness - considering product type, brand, flavor, frequency, and higher-risk use patterns and predictors

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is three times more prevalent among youth experiencing homelessness compared with the general population. Co-use of tobacco and marijuana is also common. The aim of this study is to characterize tobacco and marijuana use among youth experiencing homelessness who use combustible tobacco in a Midwestern city to inform smoking cessation intervention.

METHODS

This study included 96 youth (ages 14-24 years; 52% male, 39% female, 5% transgender/non-binary) attending a homeless drop-in center who had used at least one combustible tobacco product in the past week. We assessed past-month use of tobacco products and marijuana, other product use characteristics (e.g., frequency, brand and flavor), and psychosocial predictors of more frequent (i.e., daily) use of combustible tobacco and marijuana.

RESULTS

Most youth experiencing homelessness with past-week combustible tobacco use had used cigarettes (n = 85, 88.5%), cigars (n = 89, 92.7%), and marijuana (n = 82, 85.4%) in the past month. One-third (n = 34) used electronic vapor products (EVPs), 19.8% (n = 19) smoked hookah, and 11.5% (n = 11) used smokeless tobacco (ST). Most marijuana users co-administered with tobacco (n = 67, 69.8%). Daily combustible tobacco smoking was associated with having a child and smoking out of boredom/habit. Daily marijuana use was associated with using substances to cope with one's housing situation. Newport (n = 66, 72.5%) and Black & Mild (n = 48, 51.1%) were the most popular brands of cigarettes and cigars among ever users. Most non-combustible tobacco ever users reported not having a usual brand (EVPs: n = 51, 73.9%; ST: n = 16, 57.1%). Cigar smokers reported the most varied selection of flavors.

CONCLUSIONS

Young combustible tobacco users experiencing homelessness engage in high-risk use patterns, including poly-tobacco use, co-use of tobacco with marijuana, and frequent combustible product use. Interventions that consider the full context of tobacco and marijuana use are needed to support smoking cessation in this population.