Can epidemiology and economics make a meaningful contribution to national animal-disease control?

Gendered asymmetry of access to knowledge for brucellosis control among pastoral communities in north-west Côte d'Ivoire

Brucellosis is an infectious zoonotic disease considered as a threat to public health and pastoralist livelihoods. Symptoms of the disease can lead to gender-specific ailments such as abortions in women and orchitis in men. Pastoralists and their families are at high risk of contracting the disease. Access to health information reinforces existing knowledge and contributes to disease prevention. However, in developing countries, interventions for knowledge sharing on zoonotic diseases predominantly target men. This study aimed to describe mechanisms of knowledge production and transfer on brucellosis according to gender, by assessing the way knowledge affects behaviours of pastoral communities. A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among a pastoral community (PC) of the Folon region in north-west Côte d’Ivoire. The study included transhumant pastoralists, sedentary livestock owners, shepherds and their wives. By using mixed methods, 26 semi-structured interviews were conducted, and 320 questionnaires were completed. Statistical analysis with chi-square (χ²) comparison tests was performed to compare variables between men and women. Findings were interpreted through the concept of specialisation of the social exclusion theory. We found that gender influences access to information on brucellosis and transfer of knowledge on brucellosis appeared gender-biased, especially from veterinarians towards men in the community. The social labour division and interventions of veterinarians through awareness reinforce the knowledge gap on brucellosis between men and women. Men and women consume raw milk, whilst only men in general handle animal discharges with bare hands. To improve the control of brucellosis, knowledge on best practice should be shared with pastoral communities using the One Health approach that encourages mutual learning. Innovative strategies based on gender daily tasks such as safe dairy processing by women and safe animal husbandry to expand their herd for men can be the entry point for the prevention of brucellosis.

Analysis of Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Four District Areas in Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important infectious animal diseases impacting livestock production in Thailand. Despite a national vaccination program, FMD outbreaks are reported every year. We studied the epidemiological impacts of FMD outbreaks in four districts of Thailand between 2015 and 2016. Epidemiological data were collected from 193 FMD-affected dairy farms, 55 FMD-affected beef farms, and 25 FMD-affected pig farms. A significant difference in morbidity rates were observed between the dairy farms in the different areas, which could be explained by the differences in FMD outbreak management in each area. The morbidity rates in dairy and beef cattle also significantly differed between each animal age category, with the lowest morbidity rate observed in calves. Remarkably, vaccination was not significantly associated with the morbidity rate. In addition, the economic impact of FMD was calculated for 60 dairy farms in Muak Lek district. The economic losses were determined as the sum of milk production loss, mortality loss, additional labor costs, and veterinary service and medical costs, which averaged 56 USD per animal on the farm (ranging from 2 to 377 USD). Milk loss had the largest economic impact, although it varied substantially between farms. The farm size and outbreak duration were significantly associated with the total economic losses per farm. These results affirm the substantial epidemiological and economic impact of FMD on farms in Thailand, emphasizing the importance of FMD control.

Reducing Antimicrobial Use and Dependence in Livestock Production Systems: A Social and Economic Sciences Perspective on an Interdisciplinary Approach

Objective: In livestock production, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is considered an externality as it is the undesired result of preventive and curative antimicrobial use. To address this biosocial issue, our objective is to present an approach based on interdisciplinary research to develop strategies and policies that aim to contain AMR.

Method: To do so, we addressed three fundamental questions on which control policies and strategies for agricultural pollution problems are centered in the light of AMR. To ensure the technical, economic, behavioral and political feasibility of the developed measures, we demonstrated the usefulness of systemic approaches to define who, what and how to target by considering the complexity in which the ultimate decision-maker is embedded. We then define how voluntary or compulsory behavioral change can be achieved via five routes, introducing a clear taxonomy for AMR Interventions. Finally, we present three criteria for ex-ante analysis and ex-post evaluation of policies and strategies.

Conclusion: Interdisciplinary systemic approaches enable the development of AMR policies and strategies that are technically, politically, economically and, last but not least, behaviorally feasible by allowing the identification of (a) all actors influencing AMU in livestock production, (b) power relations between these actors, (c) adequate regulatory and intervention bases, (d) what behavioral change strategy to use, (e) whom should implement this, as well as the cost-effective assessment of combinations of interventions. Unfortunately, AMR policies and strategies are often investigated within different disciplines and not in a holistic and systemic way, which is why we advocate for more interdisciplinary work and discuss opportunities for further research.

"They've got to be testing and doing something about it": Farmer and veterinarian views on drivers for Johne's disease control in dairy herds in England

There needs to be an understanding of the reasons why key stakeholders engage in disease control efforts if disease is to be successfully and sustainably controlled. It is increasingly recognised within veterinary epidemiology and policy making in animal health that these 'people factors' are important influences on the success or otherwise of animal disease control programmes. Research methodologies adopted from the social sciences offer ways to understand this important dimension through investigating the attitudes and opinions of the key actors involved. The study reported in this paper, based on qualitative interview research, investigates the views of dairy farmers and cattle veterinarians on the drivers and incentives for controlling Johne's disease in English dairy herds. Twenty semi-structured interviews involving 17 dairy farmers and seven veterinarians were conducted in two dairy-intensive regions of England. The findings demonstrate the varied influences of veterinary advice and encouragement; appreciation of the economic cost of the disease at herd level; a voluntary national control plan; and fear of a future consumer food scare as the main reasons to engage in Johne's disease control on dairy farms. The study demonstrates how a combination of a voluntary industry-led control scheme, compulsory participation through retailer and processor contractual requirements, and threats of reputational harm and market loss have strongly influenced farmer and veterinary behaviour in relation to Johne's control without statutory involvement. The findings illustrate the importance of considering the political economy and societal impact of animal disease.

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe

The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

Economic losses due to Vernonia rubricaulis poisoning in cattle

ABSTRACT: Vernonia rubricaulis is a hepatotoxic plant found in the Pantanal biome. Under natural conditions, it is responsible for highly fatal poisonings in cattle. From January 1999 to December 2016, 33 outbreaks of V. rubricaulis poisoning were recorded, resulting in 1509 bovine deaths, of which 719 (47.6%) were adult females, 413 (27.4%) were adult males, 244 (16.2%) adult cattle with no information about sex and 133 (8.8%) calves. The coefficients of morbidity, mortality and lethality were respectively 2.79%, 2.77% and 99.24%. Most outbreaks occurred in properties containing up to 1,000 cattle, where the most significant economic impacts were also observed. Among the total recorded deaths, the total direct monetary loss was estimated at US$764,893.33, which represents an average of 3.05% of the total assets (US$25,090,683.51) of the herds involved in the outbreaks. The plant can cause more severe damage to properties with less than 500 cattle, and can reach 50% of the total value of the herd. In comparison to other methods, the methodology used in this study has an economic impact consistent with reality, not overestimating the losses. Toxic plants, such as V. rubricaulis, can cause significant economic losses in the extensive systemic livestock, and it is important decision-making and prophylactic management to avoid the occurrence of poisoning in the herds.

Closing yield gaps in smallholder goat production systems in Ethiopia and India

Small ruminants such as goats are an important source of income for smallholder farmers in South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa: they may be kept as a stepping stone to owning larger and higher-value animals such as cattle or buffalo, or provide a more-profitable and less-risky alternative in marginal or densely populated areas where access to feed resources are limited. However, smallholder goat production in these areas is often low due to low growth and reproduction rates and high animal mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential for different intervention packages to increase yields and profitability of goat meat production in Ethiopia and India. Packages were based on improved nutrition, reduced flock mortality from improved control of health and diseases, and replacing indigenous livestock with improved goat breeds. Household modelling was used to simulate the effects of interventions on goat production and household income in the extensive lowland grazing zone and highland mixed crop-livestock zones of Ethiopia, and the extensive arid zone of India. Our analysis showed that there are opportunities to increase goat meat production in both countries. Reproduction, liveweight gain and survival rates can be increased through better nutrition, genetics and healthcare, but the biggest increase in production and profits occurred when multiple interventions were combined. Importantly, interventions resulting in the biggest increases in goat meat production or number of animals sold did not always give the highest profits.

Use of Multicriteria Risk Ranking of Zoonotic Diseases in a Developing Country: Case Study of Mongolia

Many developing countries face significant health burdens associated with a high incidence of endemic zoonoses and difficulties in integrated control measures for both the human and animal populations. The objective of this study was to develop and apply a multicriteria ranking model for zoonoses in Mongolia, a country highly affected by zoonotic disease, to inform optimal resource allocation at the national level. Diseases were evaluated based on their impact on human health, livestock sector health and the wider society through affects on the economic value of livestock, as well as the feasibility of control in both the human and livestock population. Data on disease in Mongolia were collected from various government departments including the Mongolian State Central Laboratory, the Mongolian Department of Veterinary and Animal Breeding, the Mongolian Ministry of Health, Mongolian National Center for Communicable Diseases, the National Center for Zoonotic Disease and expert opinion from a workshop with a number of Mongolian Government officials and researchers. A combined score for both impact of the disease and feasibility of its control was calculated. Five zoonotic diseases were determined to be of high priority from this assessment (i.e. ovine brucellosis, echinococcosis (hydatids), rabies, anthrax and bovine brucellosis). The results supported some of the findings for high-priority diseases (namely brucellosis, rabies and anthrax) from a previous priority setting exercise carried out in Mongolia in 2011, but also identified and ranked additional animal diseases of public health importance. While the process of model development was largely Mongolian specific, the experience of developing and parameterizing this multicriteria ranking model could be replicated by other countries where zoonoses have substantive impacts on both animal and human health.

Epidemiology and Economics Support Decisions about Freedom from Aquatic Animal Disease

In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at improving the underpinning evidence base.

Expected utility of voluntary vaccination in the middle of an emergent Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic: a decision analysis parameterized for Dutch circumstances

In order to put a halt to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in 2008, the European Commission promoted vaccination at a transnational level as a new measure to combat BTV-8. Most European member states opted for a mandatory vaccination campaign, whereas the Netherlands, amongst others, opted for a voluntary campaign. For the latter to be effective, the farmer's willingness to vaccinate should be high enough to reach satisfactory vaccination coverage to stop the spread of the disease. This study looked at a farmer's expected utility of vaccination, which is expected to have a positive impact on the willingness to vaccinate. Decision analysis was used to structure the vaccination decision problem into decisions, events and payoffs, and to define the relationships among these elements. Two scenarios were formulated to distinguish farmers' mindsets, based on differences in dairy heifer management. For each of the scenarios, a decision tree was run for two years to study vaccination behaviour over time. The analysis was done based on the expected utility criterion. This allows to account for the effect of a farmer's risk preference on the vaccination decision. Probabilities were estimated by experts, payoffs were based on an earlier published study. According to the results of the simulation, the farmer decided initially to vaccinate against BTV-8 as the net expected utility of vaccination was positive. Re-vaccination was uncertain due to less expected costs of a continued outbreak. A risk averse farmer in this respect is more likely to re-vaccinate. When heifers were retained for export on the farm, the net expected utility of vaccination was found to be generally larger and thus was re-vaccination more likely to happen. For future animal health programmes that rely on a voluntary approach, results show that the provision of financial incentives can be adjusted to the farmers' willingness to vaccinate over time. Important in this respect are the decision moment and the characteristics of the disease. Farmers' perceptions of the disease risk and about the efficacy of available control options cannot be neglected.

A framework for assessing the intangible impacts of emergency animal disease

We present a novel framework for addressing the intangible impacts of emergency animal diseases (EADs). Intangible elements can have great impact on the response, control and prevention strategies that are ultimately used to address these EADs. These intangible elements have value and worth, although these are difficult express in dollar terms. Consequently, these elements are often lost in the scope of traditional economic analysis. Without the inclusion of these intangibles, the bottom-line for decision-making related to animal-health emergencies would be based only on financial measures. This does not reflect the reality of the consultative policy-making process. The framework we present allows a measurement of the trade-offs that stakeholders are willing to accept under different EAD control scenarios. The key attributes of the framework include both the consultative processes involving different stakeholders and the process of identification of intangibles and their personal value to these stakeholders. This consultation will ensure that the resulting analysis includes the full impacts of EADs, rather than only a narrow comparison of financial costs and benefits.

Evaluating the efficiency of participatory epidemiology to estimate the incidence and impacts of foot-and-mouth disease among livestock owners in Cambodia

The economic and social impacts of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) for livestock owners of developed countries have been extensively documented over the past few years. In developing countries such as Cambodia, this evaluation is often lacking due to the scarcity of accurate data. In the present study, we used a range of participatory tools to infer farmers' knowledge and perception, and the relative incidence of FMD from January 2009 to June 2010 in fifty-one villages of Svay Rieng province, Cambodia. In addition, the detection of non-structural protein at village level was used to cross-validate the results from the participatory epidemiology (PE) study. A quantitative assessment using Bayesian modeling was carried out to assess the ability of PE to retrospectively determine the FMD-infected status of a village in Cambodia. Our study shows that even if FMD is ranked second in the list of priority diseases, livestock owners did not see any benefit in reporting it since the disease entailed low direct losses. The average clinical incidence rates at individual level for cattle-buffaloes and pigs in infected villages were assessed by proportional piling at 18% and 11%, respectively for the year 2009. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of PE study were estimated at 87%, 30%, 51% and 74%, respectively. This approach seems to largely overestimate the presence of the disease but proves useful in evaluating the impact of FMD at household level and in understanding the reasons for not reporting it. This information may be important in establishing well-adapted disease prevention and control strategies in Cambodia.

The economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases in developing countries: new roles, new demands for economics and epidemiology

Animal disease outbreaks pose significant threats to livestock sectors throughout the world, both from the standpoint of the economic impacts of the disease itself and the measures taken to mitigate the risk of disease introduction. These impacts are multidimensional and not always well understood, complicating effective policy response. In the developing world, livestock diseases have broader, more nuanced effects on markets, poverty, and livelihoods, given the diversity of uses of livestock and complexity of livestock value chains. In both settings, disease control strategies, particularly those informed by ex ante modeling platforms, often fail to recognize the constraints inherent among farmers, veterinary services, and other value chain actors. In short, context matters. Correspondingly, an important gap in the animal health economics literature is the explicit incorporation of behavior and incentives in impact analyses that highlight the interactions of disease with its socio-economic and institutional setting. In this paper, we examine new approaches and frameworks for the analysis of economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases. We propose greater utilization of "bottom-up" analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of value chain and information economics approaches in impact analyses and stressing the importance of improved integration between the epidemiology of disease and its relationships with economic behavior.

Invited review: Role of livestock in human nutrition and health for poverty reduction in developing countries

Livestock keeping is critical for many of the poor in the developing world, often contributing to multiple livelihood objectives and offering pathways out of poverty. Livestock keeping also affects an indispensable asset of the poor, their human capital, through its impact on their own nutrition and health. This paper outlines the linkages between livestock keeping and the physical well-being of the poor, and examines a number of commonly held beliefs that misrepresent livestock development issues related to these linkages. These beliefs limit the scope of intervention programs to promote livestock and limit their potential contribution to poverty reduction. Recognition of the complexity of the role livestock play in household decision-making and of the opportunities foregone due to these misconceptions can enhance the ability of livestock to contribute to human well-being in the developing world.

Reverse genetics for peste-des-petits-ruminants virus (PPRV): Promoter and protein specificities

Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus (PPRV) (family Paramyxoviridae, genus Morbillivirus) causes an acute febrile illness in sheep and goats resulting in significant morbidity and mortality in infected herds. The paramyxoviruses all have negative sense, non-segmented RNA genomes and their host range and pathogenic determinants have been extensively studied using reverse genetics. This technology also enables a more rational approach to be taken with respect to vaccine design. In order to initiate this type of work for PPRV we constructed a PPRV minigenome and studied its expression in transfected cells. As for other morbilliviruses, the minimum requirements for minigenome rescue were shown to be the cis-acting elements of the genome (GP) and antigenome (AGP) promoters as well as the three trans-acting helper proteins N (nucleocapsid), P (phosphoprotein) and L (large polymerase). Homologous PPRV helper proteins were compared to their heterologous analogues from the closely related rinderpest virus (RPV) and heterologous minigenome rescue was found to be a much less efficient process. By engineering two GP/AGP chimeric minigenomes we also identified differences between the two viruses in the specific interactions between the promoters and the transcriptase/replicase complexes. The PPRV minigenome was also shown not to strictly comply with the "rule of six"in vitro.

The tuberculosis eradication programme in Ireland: a review of scientific and policy advances since 1988

A national programme to eradicate bovine tuberculosis commenced in Ireland in 1954. During the last 15-20 years, research has been conducted to address gaps in knowledge of disease epidemiology, to objectively evaluate alternative strategy options, and to critically assess the implementation of disease control strategies. This paper provides a review of scientific and policy advances in Ireland since 1988, relevant to the tuberculosis eradication programme in Ireland. There have been substantial advances in knowledge of aspects of disease epidemiology, relating to cattle-to-cattle transmission, the role of wildlife, transmission of infection from wildlife and methods to minimise wildlife-to-cattle transmission. Further, scientific advances have been made both in the detection and management of infected herds. With respect to policy, the paper describes current policy and policy advances in both the detection and management of infected herds, as well as current strategies to prevent herd breakdowns. The Irish programme is a useful example of science-informed policy in a national context.

Brucellosis in sub-Saharan Africa: epidemiology, control and impact

Brucellosis is an important disease among livestock and people in sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the incidence is the highest in pastoral production systems and decreases as herd size and size of landholding decreases. The prevalence of risk factors for infections are best understood for bovine brucellosis and to a lesser extent for ovine and caprine brucellosis. The occurrence and epidemiology of brucellosis in pigs is poorly understood. This species bias is also reflected in control activities. As with other public-sector animal health services, the surveillance and control of brucellosis in sub-Saharan Africa is rarely implemented outside southern Africa. Brucellosis is even more ignored in humans and most cases go undiagnosed and untreated, leading to considerable suffering for those affected. Decision-making to determine the importance of brucellosis control relative to other public concerns and what brucellosis control strategies should be applied is urgently required. A strategy for how brucellosis decision-making might be considered and applied in future is outlined.