Epidemiologic evidence and causal inference

Global matters of epidemiology and the ethical challenges of addressing the health of populations

PURPOSE

The American College of Epidemiology (ACE) held its 2022 Annual Meeting, September 8-11, with a conference theme of 'Pandemic of Misinformation: Building Trust in Epidemiology'. The ACE Ethics Committee hosted a symposium session in recognition of the global spotlight placed on epidemiology and public health due to the COVID-19 crisis. The ACE Ethics Committee invited previous Chairs of the Ethics Committee and current President of the International Epidemiological Association to present at the symposium session. This paper aims to highlight the ethical challenges presented during the symposium session.

METHODS

Three speakers with diverse backgrounds representing expertize from the fields of ethics, epidemiology, public health, clinical trials, pharmacoepidemiology, statistics, law, and public policy, covering perspectives from the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia were selected to present on the ethical challenges in epidemiology and public health applying a global theme. Dr. D. Weed presented on 'Causation, Epidemiology and Ethics'; Dr. C.M. Pandey presented on the 'Ethical Challenges in the Practice of Digital Epidemiology'; and Dr. J. Acquavella presented on 'Departures from Scientific Objectivity: A Cause of Eroding Trust in Epidemiology.'

RESULTS

The collective goal to improve the public's health was a mutually shared theme across the three distinct areas. We highlight the common ethical guidance and principle-based approaches that have served epidemiology and public health in framing and critical analysis of novel challenges, including autonomy, beneficence, justice, scientific integrity, duties to the profession and community, and developing and maintaining public trust; however, gaps remain in how best to address health inequalities and the novel emergence and pervasiveness of misinformation and disinformation that have impacted the health of the global community. We introduce an ethical framework of translational bioethics that places considerations of the social determinants of health at the forefront.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic required an expedited public health response and, at the same time, placed the profession of epidemiology and public health, its system, and structures, under the microscope like never before. This article illustrates that revisiting our foundations in research and practice and orienting contemporary challenges using an ethical lens can assist in identifying and furthering the health of populations globally.

Causal Criteria in Medical and Biological Disciplines: History, Essence, and Radiation Aspects. Report 4, Part 1: The Post-Hill Criteria and Ecolgoical Criteria

Part 1 of Report 4 is focused on the development and modifications of causal criteria after A.B. Hill (1965). Criteria from B. MacMahon et al. (1970-1996), regarded as the first textbook for modern epidemiology, were considered, and it was found that the named researchers did not offer anything new despite the frequent mention of this source in relation to the theme. A similar situation emerged with the criteria of M. Susser: the three obligatory points of this author, "Association" (or "Probability" of causality), "Time order," and "Direction of effect," are trivial, and two more special criteria, which are the development of "Popperian Epidemiology," i.e., "Surviability" of the hypothesis when it is tested by different methods (included in the refinement in Hill's criterion "Consistency of association") and "Predictive performance" of the hypothesis are more theoretical and hardly applicable for the practice of epidemiology and public health. The same restrictions apply to the similar "Popperian" criteria of D.L. Weed, "Predictability" and "Testability" of the causal hypothesis. Although the universal postulates of A.S. Evans for infectious and noninfectious pathologies can be considered exhaustive, they are not used either in epidemiology or in any other discipline practice, except for the field of infectious pathologies, which is probably explained by the complication of the ten-point complex. The little-known criteria of P. Cole (1997) for medical and forensic practice are the most important. The three parts of Hill's criterion-based approaches are important in that they go from a single epidemiological study through a cycle of studies (coupled with the integration of data from other biomedical disciplines) to re-base Hill's criteria for assessing the individual causality of an effect. These constructs complement the earlier guidance from R.E. Gots (1986) on establishing probabilistic personal causation. The collection of causal criteria and the guidelines for environmental disciplines (ecology of biota, human ecoepidemiology, and human ecotoxicology) were considered. The total dominance of inductive causal criteria, both initial and in modifications and with additions, was revealed for an apparently complete base of sources (1979-2020). Adaptations of all known causal schemes based on guidelines have been found, from Henle-Koch postulates to Hill and Susser, including in the international programs and practice of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Hill Criteria are used by the WHO and other organizations on chemical safety (IPCS) to assess causality in animal experiments for subsequent extrapolation to humans. Data on the assessment of the causality of effects in ecology, ecoepidemiology, and ecotoxicology, together with the use of Hill's criteria for animal experiments, are of significant relevance not only for radiation ecology, but also for radiobiology.

A quantitative weight of evidence assessment of Hill's guidelines for causal inference for cosmetic talc as a cause of mesothelioma

Cosmetic talc has been suggested to cause mesothelioma. To assess a potential causal relationship between cosmetic talc and mesothelioma, a quantitative weight of evidence analysis was performed in accordance with Hill's nine original guidelines for causal inference using a published empirical model to weight each respective guideline. Various epidemiological, toxicological, and exposure studies related to cosmetic talc and risk of mesothelioma were included in an evaluation of each of Hill's guidelines. Probabilities that the guidelines were true were assigned based on expert judgment. We applied a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the variability of our probability estimates. The overall probability of causality for cosmetic talc and mesothelioma was approximately 1.29% (range: 0.73%-3.96%). This low probability of causality supports the conclusion that cosmetic talc is not related to the development of mesothelioma.

The replication crisis in epidemiology: snowball, snow job, or winter solstice?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Like a snowball rolling down a steep hill, the most recent crisis over the perceived lack of reproducibility of scientific results has outpaced the evidence of crisis. It has led to new actions and new guidelines that have been rushed to market without plans for evaluation, metrics for success, or due consideration of the potential for unintended consequences.

RECENT FINDINGS

The perception of the crisis is at least partly a snow job, heavily influenced by a small number of centers lavishly funded by a single foundation, with undue and unsupported attention to preregistration as a solution to the perceived crisis. At the same time, the perception of crisis provides an opportunity for introspection. Two studies' estimates of association may differ because of undue attention on null hypothesis statistical testing, because of differences in the distribution of effect modifiers, because of differential susceptibility to threats to validity, or for other reasons. Perhaps the expectation of what reproducible epidemiology ought to look like is more misguided than the practice of epidemiology. We advocate for the idea of "replication and advancement." Studies should not only replicate earlier work, but also improve on it in by enhancing the design or analysis.

SUMMARY

Abandoning blind reliance on null hypothesis significance testing for statistical inference, finding consensus on when pre-registration of non-randomized study protocols has merit, and focusing on replication and advance are the most certain ways to emerge from this solstice for the better.

Making valid causal inferences from observational data

The ability to make strong causal inferences, based on data derived from outside of the laboratory, is largely restricted to data arising from well-designed randomized control trials. Nonetheless, a number of methods have been developed to improve our ability to make valid causal inferences from data arising from observational studies. In this paper, I review concepts of causation as a background to counterfactual causal ideas; the latter ideas are central to much of current causal theory. Confounding greatly constrains causal inferences in all observational studies. Confounding is a biased measure of effect that results when one or more variables, that are both antecedent to the exposure and associated with the outcome, are differentially distributed between the exposed and non-exposed groups. Historically, the most common approach to control confounding has been multivariable modeling; however, the limitations of this approach are discussed. My suggestions for improving causal inferences include asking better questions (relates to counterfactual ideas and "thought" trials); improving study design through the use of forward projection; and using propensity scores to identify potential confounders and enhance exchangeability, prior to seeing the outcome data. If time-dependent confounders are present (as they are in many longitudinal studies), more-advanced methods such as marginal structural models need to be implemented. Tutorials and examples are cited where possible.

The quality of nutrition and cancer reviews: a systematic assessment

The methodological quality of published reviews of nutrition and cancer (2008-2009) and of the carcinogenicity of acrylamide (1999-2009) was systematically assessed. Each review was examined with respect to four characteristics: whether the purpose of the review was explicitly stated, whether a methods section (detailing the methods used to "weigh" the evidence) was included, whether "weight of evidence" methods were described elsewhere in the paper (e.g., in the discussion), and finally, whether references to recognized "weight of evidence" methods were included. In this study, ninety per cent of a systematically selected sample of recent reviews on nutrition and cancer published in 2008-2009 and 74% of reviews on acrylamide on cancer published in 1999-2009 were found to be methodologically troublesome or frankly unsound. Failure of peer review and editorial oversight are possible explanations, suggesting a broad lack of concern about this issue in the scientific community. If peer reviewers in the nutrition and cancer community do not require "weight of evidence" methods, then these methods may not appear in the published reviews. Similarly, if journal editors (or editorial policies) do not require methods sections in literature reviews, then these sections may not appear. The prerogative of the author(s) seems the most likely determinant of whether a systematic approach is used or not in nutrition and cancer reviews.

Why the term neonatal encephalopathy should be preferred over neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

The unresponsiveness of the full-term newborn is sometimes attributed to asphyxia, even when no severe physiologic disturbance occurred during labor and delivery. The controversy about whether to use the name "hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy" or "newborn encephalopathy" has recently flared in publications directed toward pediatricians and neurologists. In this clinic opinion piece, I discuss the importance to obstetricians of this decision and explain why "newborn encephalopathy" should be the default term.

The role of causal criteria in causal inferences: Bradford Hill's "aspects of association"

As noted by Wesley Salmon and many others, causal concepts are ubiquitous in every branch of theoretical science, in the practical disciplines and in everyday life. In the theoretical and practical sciences especially, people often base claims about causal relations on applications of statistical methods to data. However, the source and type of data place important constraints on the choice of statistical methods as well as on the warrant attributed to the causal claims based on the use of such methods. For example, much of the data used by people interested in making causal claims come from non-experimental, observational studies in which random allocations to treatment and control groups are not present. Thus, one of the most important problems in the social and health sciences concerns making justified causal inferences using non-experimental, observational data. In this paper, I examine one method of justifying such inferences that is especially widespread in epidemiology and the health sciences generally - the use of causal criteria. I argue that while the use of causal criteria is not appropriate for either deductive or inductive inferences, they do have an important role to play in inferences to the best explanation. As such, causal criteria, exemplified by what Bradford Hill referred to as "aspects of [statistical] associations", have an indispensible part to play in the goal of making justified causal claims.

How strong is the evidence that solar ultraviolet B and vitamin D reduce the risk of cancer?: An examination using Hill's criteria for causality

The ultraviolet-B (UVB)-vitamin D-cancer hypothesis was proposed in 1980. Since then, several ecological and observational studies have examined the hypothesis, in addition to one good randomized, controlled trial. Also, the mechanisms whereby vitamin D reduces the risk of cancer have been elucidated. This report aims to examine the evidence to date with respect to the criteria for causality in a biological system first proposed by Robert Koch and later systematized by A. Bradford Hill. The criteria of most relevance are strength of association, consistency, biological gradient, plausibility/mechanisms and experimental verification. Results for several cancers generally satisfy these criteria. Results for breast and colorectal cancer satisfy the criteria best, but there is also good evidence that other cancers do as well, including bladder, esophageal, gallbladder, gastric, ovarian, rectal, renal and uterine corpus cancer, as well as Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Several cancers have mixed findings with respect to UVB and/or vitamin D, including pancreatic and prostate cancer and melanoma. Even for these, the benefit of vitamin D seems reasonably strong. Although ecological and observational studies are not generally regarded as able to provide convincing evidence of causality, the fact that humanity has always existed with vitamin D from solar UVB irradiance means that there is a wealth of evidence to be harvested using the ecological and observational approaches. Nonetheless, additional randomized, controlled trials are warranted to further examine the link between vitamin D and cancer incidence, survival and mortality.

Role and limitations of epidemiology in establishing a causal association

Cancer risk assessment is one of the most visible and controversial endeavors of epidemiology. Epidemiologic approaches are among the most influential of all disciplines that inform policy decisions to reduce cancer risk. The adoption of epidemiologic reasoning to define causal criteria beyond the realm of mechanistic concepts of cause-effect relationships in disease etiology has placed greater reliance on controlled observations of cancer risk as a function of putative exposures in populations. The advent of molecular epidemiology further expanded the field to allow more accurate exposure assessment, improved understanding of intermediate endpoints, and enhanced risk prediction by incorporating the knowledge on genetic susceptibility. We examine herein the role and limitations of epidemiology as a discipline concerned with the identification of carcinogens in the physical, chemical, and biological environment. We reviewed two examples of the application of epidemiologic approaches to aid in the discovery of the causative factors of two very important malignant diseases worldwide, stomach and cervical cancers. Both examples serve as paradigms of successful cooperation between epidemiologists and laboratory scientists in the pursuit of the understanding of cancer etiology.

Older women and breast cancer screening: research synthesis

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES

To identify the most beneficial ways to support older women as they make screening decisions using a systematic, epidemiologic, narrative review of research regarding benefits and burdens of breast cancer screening and treatment.

DATA SOURCES

Medical and nursing research databases emphasizing women aged 60 and older.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Older women can tolerate screening and treatment, yet they are underserved. The most frequently cited reason to explain this phenomenon is declining health status associated with aging. Research evidence does not support this claim. No evidence clearly describes relationships among health status, aging, and less screening or less aggressive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Older women experience varied health problems. However, indications that they are less able than their younger counterparts to tolerate screening or treatment for breast cancer do not exist.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING

Further research in all aspects of breast cancer care in older women is required to define and describe risks and benefits of screening within a context of aging and changing health. Nurses should discuss the risks and benefits of screening with older women.

The influence of CCL3L1 gene-containing segmental duplications on HIV-1/AIDS susceptibility

Segmental duplications in the human genome are selectively enriched for genes involved in immunity, although the phenotypic consequences for host defense are unknown. We show that there are significant interindividual and interpopulation differences in the copy number of a segmental duplication encompassing the gene encoding CCL3L1 (MIP-1alphaP), a potent human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1)-suppressive chemokine and ligand for the HIV coreceptor CCR5. Possession of a CCL3L1 copy number lower than the population average is associated with markedly enhanced HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) susceptibility. This susceptibility is even greater in individuals who also possess disease-accelerating CCR5 genotypes. This relationship between CCL3L1 dose and altered HIV/AIDS susceptibility points to a central role for CCL3L1 in HIV/AIDS pathogenesis and indicates that differences in the dose of immune response genes may constitute a genetic basis for variable responses to infectious diseases.

Environmental exposure to carcinogens causing lung cancer: epidemiological evidence from the medical literature

OBJECTIVE

In 2000 there were 1.1 million lung or bronchial cancer deaths worldwide, with relatively limited evidence of causation other than for smoking. We aimed to search and appraise the literature regarding evidence for a causal relationship between air pollution and lung cancer according to the 10 Bradford Hill criteria for causality.

METHODOLOGY

A MEDLINE search was performed using the following key words: 'lung neoplasm', 'epidemiology', 'human', 'air pollution'and 'not molec*'. The criteria for inclusion was: cited original research that described the study population, measured environmental factors, was of case control or cohort design, and was undertaken after 1982.

RESULTS

Fourteen papers (10 case control, four cohort studies) fulfilled the search criteria, with a sample size ranging from 101 cases and 89 controls, to a cohort of 552 cases and 138 controls. Of the 14 papers that fulfilled the search criteria the number of papers addressing each of the Bradford Hill criteria were as follows: Strength of association: eight studies demonstrated significant positive associations between environmental exposure and lung cancer with a relative risk range of 1.14-5.2. One study found a negative association with relative risk 0.28. Consistency: eight of 14 studies found significant positive associations and one of 14 a significant negative association. Specificity: tobacco smoking and occupational exposure were addressed in all studies (often crudely with misclassification). Temporality: exposure prior to diagnosis was demonstrated in nine studies. Dose-response relationship: evident in three studies. Coherence, analogy: not addressed in any study.

CONCLUSION

Evidence for causality is modest, with intermediate consistency of findings, limited dose-response evidence and crude adjustment for important potential confounders. Large studies with comprehensive risk factor quantification are required to clarify the potentially small effect of air pollution given the relatively large effects of tobacco smoking and occupational carcinogen exposure.

Reviews: A Critical Review of Studies on Vitamin D in Relation to Colorectal Cancer

Vitamin D intake has been hypothesized to reduce the risk of several types of cancer. Vitamin D and its analogues have demonstrated anticancer activity in vitro and in animal models. However, the risk of colorectal cancer in relation to dietary vitamin D remains controversial. A literature search was performed for articles on epidemiologic studies of vitamin D and colorectal cancer and the mechanisms involved. Studies that combine multiple sources of vitamin D or examine serum 25(OH)D3 usually find that above-average vitamin D intake and serum metabolite concentrations are associated with significantly reduced incidence of colorectal cancer. A number of mechanisms have been identified through which vitamin D may reduce the risk of colorectal and several other types of cancer. Although studies that include vitamin D from all sources or serum 25(OH)D3 usually show significantly reduced incidence of colorectal cancer in association with vitamin D, analyses limited to dietary vitamin D tend to have mixed results. The likely reason that dietary vitamin D is not a significant risk reduction factor for colorectal cancer in many studies is that dietary sources provide only a portion of total vitamin D, with supplements and synthesis of vitamin D in the skin in association with solar UV-B radiation providing the balance. There is strong evidence from several different lines of investigation supporting the hypothesis that vitamin D may reduce the risk of colorectal cancer. Further study is required to elucidate the mechanisms and develop guidelines for optimal vitamin D sources and serum levels of vitamin D metabolites.