The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data

Low- And Middle-Income Countries Experienced Delays Accessing New Essential Medicines, 1982-2024

Little is known about how long it takes for new medicines to reach countries with different income levels. We analyzed data, sourced from IQVIA, on the timing of new drug launches in seventy-five low-, middle-, and high-income markets from 1982 to 2024. The sample captured the majority of essential medicines (as designated by the World Health Organization in the twenty-third Model List of Essential Medicines) that first came into medical use anywhere globally from 1982 onward. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to quantify delays in launches across countries. Our analysis comprised 119 medicines with 6,871 observed launches. Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of first launches occurred in just eight countries (in order of the most first launches, the US, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan). From the first launch globally, the median time to availability was 2.7 years for high-income countries, 4.5 years for upper-middle-income countries, 6.9 years for lower-middle-income countries, and 8.0 years for low-income countries. The gap between richer (high- and upper-middle-income) and poorer (lower-middle- and low-income) countries remained largely unchanged over time. Strategies to address the disparities highlighted by this analysis are urgently needed.

Serum Protein Electrophoresis Patterns in Patients with Osteoarticular Tuberculosis

CONTEXT AND AIMS

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of infectious disease deaths in India. It is also one of the most challenging diseases to diagnose and treat effectively. TB can occur both in the lungs and in extrapulmonary locations through hematogenous spread. Osteoarticular TB is a type of extrapulmonary characterized by atypical presentation. If diagnosed early, it can be treated effectively with reduced risk of mortality.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

At Nalanda medical college and hospital, an 18-month prospective research was undertaken. The study included a total of 120 patients with osteoarticular TB. Serum electrophoresis of blood samples was performed at baseline, 2 months, and 4 months following antitubercular medication administration. The fractions of albumin, α1, α2, β, and γ globulins were estimated and compared with the baseline value.

RESULTS

It was observed that as the disease progressed and became more chronic, there was a decrease in albumin and an increase in α1, α2, β, and γ globulin percentages of serum proteins. Upon follow-up, the serum electrophoresis revealed that these values observed during baseline could be reversed by the administration of antitubercular drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that analyzing serum protein fractions could be a cost-effective strategy to determine the presence of osteoarticular TB and also aid in initiating antitubercular treatment.

Ensuring universal access to quality care for persons with presumed tuberculosis reaching the private sector: lessons from Kerala

BACKGROUND

More than half of the people with Tuberculosis (TB) symptoms in India seek care from the private sector. People with TB getting treatment from private sector in India are considered to be at a higher risk for receiving suboptimal quality of care in terms of incorrect diagnosis and treatment, lack of treatment adherence support with a high loss to follow-up rate that could eventually increase their risk of drug resistance. The current study aims at documenting the approach and efforts taken by the Kerala state to partner with the private health care delivery providers for ensuring quality TB care to the people with presumed TB reaching them.

METHODS

A case study approach was adopted with review of all available literature followed by five Key Informant Interviews to understand the case through a primary descriptive exploration. Grounded theory approach was used to generating the single theory of the case itself that explains it.

RESULTS

Kerala state has taken a variety of interventions to ensure universal access to TB care for citizens reaching the private sector with documented improvement in the quality of TB care. Key learnings from these initiatives were (i) patients need to be at the centre of partnerships, (ii) good governance is essential for ensuring Universal Health Coverage in a mixed health system, (iii) data intelligence is required to guide partnerships, (iv) identification of the correct 'problems' is crucial for effective design of partnerships and (v) a platform for meaningful dialogue of key stakeholders is needed.

CONCLUSION

Kerala experience demonstrated that if governments take a proactive role in engaging the private sector, in an informed and evidence-based way, they can leverage the advantages of the private sector while protecting the public health interest.

Operational priorities for engaging with India's private healthcare sector for the control of tuberculosis: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the potential impact of expanding services offered by the Joint Effort for Elimination of Tuberculosis (JEET), the largest private sector engagement initiative for tuberculosis (TB) in India.

DESIGN

We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission dynamics, coupled with a cost model.

SETTING

Ahmedabad and New Delhi, two cities with contrasting levels of JEET coverage.

PARTICIPANTS

Estimated patients with TB in Ahmedabad and New Delhi.

INTERVENTIONS

We investigated the epidemiological impact of expanding three different public-private support agency (PPSA) services: provider recruitment, uptake of cartridge-based nucleic acid amplification tests and uptake of adherence support mechanisms (specifically government supplied fixed-dose combination drugs), all compared with a continuation of current TB services.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that in Delhi, increasing the use of adherence support mechanisms among private providers should be prioritised, having the lowest incremental cost-per-case-averted between 2020 and 2035 of US$170 000 (US$110 000-US$310 000). Likewise in Ahmedabad, increasing provider recruitment should be prioritised, having the lowest incremental cost-per-case averted of US$18 000 (US$12 000-US$29 000).

CONCLUSION

Results illustrate how intervention priorities may vary in different settings across India, depending on local conditions, and the existing degree of uptake of PPSA services. Modelling can be a useful tool for identifying these priorities for any given setting.

Exploring private sector perspectives on barriers and facilitators in availing tuberculosis care cascade services: a qualitative study from the Indian state

INTRODUCTION

The private sector plays an important role in tuberculosis (TB) elimination by providing access to quality TB care services like diagnosis and treatment, advocacy for preventive measures, innovation to address challenges in TB elimination, vaccines etc. The study aims to understand the perspectives of private practitioners on patients' TB care cascade to reinforce existing interventions by assuring the quality of care to TB patients.

METHODS

The study utilized a qualitative design through in-depth interviews of private practitioners and was conducted in Ranchi and Purbi Singhbhum District of Jharkhand State from March-August 2021. The pilot-tested, semi-structured, open-ended interview guide questionnaire collected information from private practitioners on various aspects of the TB care cascade. The data from the provider interviews were transcribed into multiple codes and themes on the TB program. An inductive analysis was carried out with a focus on content credibility to eliminate bias. Ethical approval was received from the Institutional Ethics Committee of the Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar (IIPHG), India. Written consent was taken from the private practitioners involved in the study.

RESULT

In-depth interviews of 17 private practitioners reveal various factors contributing to delays in TB care cascades, especially delay in access to TB diagnosis and TB Care, delay in providing treatment once after diagnosis and poor adherence to the TB treatment. According to the perception of private practitioners, there was an array of client, provider and system side factors affecting the TB care cascade gaps positively and negatively. Positive aspects mainly emerged from interviews: strong governance, consistent supply chain management, innovative PPP models and financial schemes reducing out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE). Various factors affecting the TB care cascade negatively include awareness among the patient, socio-economic status, approach and decision-making power of providers, adverse effects of drugs, staff capacity building, etc. CONCLUSIONS: Engaging private practitioner in TB elimination efforts is critical to achieving global targets and reducing the burden of TB. The study helps to determine geography-specific barriers and facilitators of the TB care cascade to achieve the aim of providing universal access to TB healthcare with the inclusion of private practitioners.

Improving measurement of tuberculosis care cascades to enhance people-centred care

Care cascades represent the proportion of people reaching milestones in care for a disease and are widely used to track progress towards global targets for HIV and other diseases. Despite recent progress in estimating care cascades for tuberculosis (TB) disease, they have not been routinely applied at national and subnational levels, representing a lost opportunity for public health impact. As researchers who have estimated TB care cascades in high-incidence countries (India, Madagascar, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and Zambia), we describe the utility of care cascades and identify measurement challenges, including the lack of population-based disease burden data and electronic data capture, the under-reporting of people with TB navigating fragmented and privatised health systems, the heterogeneity of TB tests, and the lack of post-treatment follow-up. We outline an agenda for rectifying these gaps and argue that improving care cascade measurement is crucial to enhancing people-centred care and achieving the End TB goals.

The Prevalence of Self-Reported Tuberculosis in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India: Evidence from the NFHS-IV and V

INTRODUCTION

Since 1992, many rounds of the National Family Health Surveys have produced a significant quantity of data in India. The magnitude of the tuberculosis (TB) burden in Andaman and Nicobar Island can be better understood with this data. The household-level information on self-reported TB may provide useful information on the prevalence and distribution of TB as well as care-seeking behaviour. The primary objective is to analyse the data from the NFHS-IV and NFHS-V to understand the prevalence of self-reported TB as well as healthcare-seeking patterns for TB in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

METHODOLOGY

We performed secondary data analysis of NFHS-IV and NFHS-V data. After taking into consideration the survey's cluster design and sampling weights, the prevalence was estimated. The association of identified factors with self-reported TB was investigated using the chi-square and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The point prevalence of self-reported TB was 615 (418, 873) and 221 (122, 367) in the NFHS-IV and NFHS-V, respectively (p = 0.012). The elderly, those from rural areas, those belonging to a tribe, and those with a poor wealth index were more likely to report TB. Self-reported TB prevalence was higher in the Nicobar district. There is an increase in a significant proportion of individuals not seeking care.

CONCLUSION

The NFHS-IV and NFHS-V show a decline in self-reported TB, which is consistent with national estimates. However, the enhanced TB case detection in individuals at high risk of TB among the Nicobar districts and tribal communities could significantly contribute to the fight against tuberculosis. Improved awareness of TB could improve care seeking for TB.

Trends of Private Drugs' Sales and Costs Incurred by Patients on Anti-tuberculosis Drugs in Selected Districts of Jharkhand (2022): Results From Sub-national TB-Free Certification

BACKGROUND

The government of India is committed to eliminating tuberculosis (TB) by 2025 under the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme which provides free investigations and treatment as well as incentives for nutritional support during their treatment course. Many TB patients prefer to seek treatment from the private sector which sometimes leads to financial constraints for the patients. Our study aims to find the burden of TB patients in the private sector and the expenses borne by them for their treatment.

METHODOLOGY

Sales data of rifampicin-containing formulation drug consumption in the private sector of six districts of Jharkhand was collected from Clearing and Forwarding agencies. Based on the drug sales data, the total incurring costs of the drugs, total number of patients, and cost per patient seeking treatment from the private sector were calculated for the year 2015-2021. ANOVA and the post hoc test (Tukey honestly significant difference (HSD)) were applied for analysis.

RESULTS

 There was a marked difference amongst all the districts in relation to all the variables namely total costs, cost per patient, and total private patients seeking treatment from the private sector which was statistically significant (p < 0.001). East Singhbhum had the highest out-of-pocket expense and private patients as compared to all six districts. Lohardaga showed the sharpest decline in total private patients from 2015 to 2021. The average cost borne by private patients in 2015 was INR 1821 (95% CI 1086 - 2556) which decreased to INR 1033 (95% CI 507 - 1559) in 2021.

CONCLUSION

From the study, it was concluded that the purchase of medicines for TB treatment from the private sector is one of the essential elements in out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) borne by TB patients. Hence, newer initiatives should be explored to foresee the future OOPE borne by the patients and decrease OOPE-induced poverty.

Do private providers initiate anti-tuberculosis therapy on the basis of chest radiographs? A standardised patient study in urban India

Background

The initiation of anti-tuberculosis treatment (ATT) based on results of WHO-approved microbiological diagnostics is an important marker of quality tuberculosis (TB) care. Evidence suggests that other diagnostic processes leading to treatment initiation may be preferred in high TB incidence settings. This study examines whether private providers start anti-TB therapy on the basis of chest radiography (CXR) and clinical examinations.

Methods

This study uses the standardized patient (SP) methodology to generate accurate and unbiased estimates of private sector, primary care provider practice when a patient presents a standardized TB case scenario with an abnormal CXR. Using multivariate log-binomial and linear regressions with standard errors clustered at the provider level, we analyzed 795 SP visits conducted over three data collection waves from 2014 to 2020 in two Indian cities. Data were inverse-probability-weighted based on the study sampling strategy, resulting in city-wave-representative results.

Findings

Amongst SPs who presented to a provider with an abnormal CXR, 25% (95% CI: 21-28%) visits resulted in ideal management, defined as the provider prescribing a microbiological test and not offering a concurrent prescription for a corticosteroid or antibiotic (including anti-TB medications). In contrast, 23% (95% CI: 19-26%) of 795 visits were prescribed anti-TB medications. Of 795 visits, 13% (95% CI: 10-16%) resulted in anti-TB treatment prescriptions/dispensation and an order for confirmatory microbiological testing.

Interpretation

One in five SPs presenting with abnormal CXR were prescribed ATT by private providers. This study contributes novel insights to empiric treatment prevalence based on CXR abnormality. Further work is needed to understand how providers make trade-offs between existing diagnostic practices, new technologies, profits, clinical outcomes, and the market dynamics with laboratories.

Funding

This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant OPP1091843), and the Knowledge for Change Program at The World Bank.

Use of standardised patients to assess tuberculosis case management by private pharmacies in Patna, India: A repeat cross-sectional study

As the first point of care for many healthcare seekers, private pharmacies play an important role in tuberculosis (TB) care. However, previous studies in India have showed that private pharmacies commonly dispense symptomatic treatments and broad-spectrum antibiotics over-the-counter (OTC), rather than referring patients for TB testing. Such inappropriate management by pharmacies can delaye TB diagnosis. We assessed medical advice and OTC drug dispensing practices of pharmacists for standardized patients presenting with classic symptoms of pulmonary TB (case 1) and for those with sputum smear positive pulmonary TB (case 2), and examined how practices have changed over time in an urban Indian site. We examined how and whether private pharmacies improved practices for TB in 2019 compared to a baseline study conducted in 2015 in the city of Patna, using the same survey sampling techniques and study staff. The proportion of patient-pharmacist interactions that resulted in correct or ideal management, as well as the proportion of interactions resulting in antibiotic, quinolone, and corticosteroid are presented, with standard errors clustered at the provider level. To assess the difference in case management and the use of drugs across the two cases by round, a difference in difference (DiD) model was employed. A total of 936 SP interactions were completed over both rounds of survey. Our results indicate that across both rounds of data collection, 331 of 936 (35%; 95% CI: 32-38%) of interactions were correctly managed. At baseline, 215 of 500 (43%; 95% CI: 39-47%) of interactions were correctly managed whereas 116 of 436 (27%; 95% CI: 23-31%) were correctly managed in the second round of data collection. Ideal management, where in addition to a referral, patients were not prescribed any potentially harmful medications, was seen in 275 of 936 (29%; 95% CI: 27-32%) of interactions overall, with 194 of 500 (39%; 95% CI: 35-43%) of interactions at baseline and 81 of 436 (19%; 95% CI: 15-22%) in round 2. No private pharmacy dispensed anti-TB medications without a prescription. On average, the difference in correct case management between case 1 vs. case 2 dropped by 20 percent points from baseline to the second round of data collection. Similarly, ideal case management decreased by 26 percentage points between rounds. This is in contrast with the dispensation of medicines, which had the opposite effect between rounds; the difference in dispensation of quinolones between case 1 and case 2 increased by 14 percentage points, as did corticosteroids by 9 percentage points, antibiotics by 25 percentage points and medicines generally by 30 percentage points. Our standardised patient study provides valuable insights into how private pharmacies in an Indian city changed their management of patients with TB symptoms or with confirmed TB over a 5-year period. We saw that overall, private pharmacy performance has weakened over time. However, no OTC dispensation of anti-TB medications occurred in either survey round. As the first point of contact for many care seekers, continued and sustained efforts to engage with Indian private pharmacies should be prioritized.

Engaging the Private Health Service Delivery Sector for TB Care in India-Miles to Go!

More than half of the people with TB in India seek care from the private sector, where suboptimal quality of care is a concern. Significant progress has been made over the last five years to expand the coverage and to involve more private sector providers in TB care under the National TB Elimination Program (NTEP) in India. The objective of this review is to describe the major efforts and the progress made with regard to the engagement of the 'for-profit' private health service delivery sector for TB care in India, to critically discuss this, and to suggest the way forward. We described the recent efforts by the NTEP for private sector engagement based on the literature, including strategy documents, guidelines, annual reports, evaluation studies, and critically looked at the strategies against the vision of partnership. The NTEP has taken a variety of approaches, including education, regulation, provision of cost-free TB services, incentives, and partnership schemes to engage the private sector. As a result of all these interventions, private sector contribution has increased substantially, including TB notification, follow-up, and treatment success. However, these still fall short of achieving the set targets. Strategies were focused more towards the purchase of services rather than creating sustainable partnerships. There are no major strategies to engage the diverse set of providers, including informal health care providers and chemists, who are the first point of contact for a significant number of people with TB. India needs an integrated private sector engagement policy focusing on ensuring standards of TB care for every citizen. The NTEP should adopt an approach specifically tailored to the various categories of providers. For meaningful inclusion of the private sector, it is also essential to build understanding and generate data intelligence for better decision making, strengthen the platforms for engagement, and expand the social insurance coverage.

Estimating the Burden of Tuberculosis in India: A Modelling Study

Background

Measurements TB incidence and mortality are crucial for monitoring progress towards SDG goals for TB. Until recently, WHO estimated TB burden in India with applied simple, transparent equilibrium models to data from Gujarat, an Indian state where the first state-level prevalence survey was conducted in 2011. However, since then there has been several interventions in India including national TB prevalence survey, infection survey, sub-national survey & certification which gives opportunity for national and sub-national estimates for TB incidence and mortality.

Methods

We developed a model is a compartmental, deterministic framework, taking account of TB natural history, as well as India's healthcare system including health care seeking from public and private sector. To address changes in TB burden owing to COVID disruptions, we followed same model that used by WHO in the global TB Report 2022 with additional impact of delta wave in 2021. Major sources of data included National TB Prevalence survey, trends in caseloads in public and private sector including their contribution and mortality information.

Results

We estimated total TB incidence of 2.77 million in the year 2022 as against 2.97 in the year 2015 and corresponding TB mortality of 0.32 and 0.36 million respectively. In terms of rate per 1,00,000 TB incidence in 2022 was 196 as compared to 225 in the year 2015 and mortality was 23 and 27 respectively. TB incidence estimates are similar to what was estimated by WHO, while mortality estimates appear different in our estimates due to different calibration targets depending on in-country published data.

Conclusion

Even if TB burden is infeasible to measure directly, a range of data can nonetheless offer indirect evidence for its estimation: mathematical modelling can be a helpful tool for bringing together these diverse sources of evidence, and deriving estimates that are consistent with them all. While the RGI reported mortality is an important source of information, its quality and coverage for medically certified cause of deaths requires improvement in India.

Implementation of a tuberculosis elimination project, India 2018-2019

Objective

To describe the changes in tuberculosis case notifications by the private sector after implementation of the Joint Effort for Elimination of Tuberculosis project in India in 2018.

Methods

We retrieved data from the project recorded in India's national tuberculosis surveillance system. We analysed data on 95 project districts in six states (Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab including Chandigarh, Telangana and West Bengal) to assess changes in the number of tuberculosis notifications, private provider notifiers and microbiological confirmations of cases from 2017 (baseline) to 2019. We compared case notification rates in districts where the project was implemented with the rates in districts where it was not.

Findings

From 2017 to 2019, tuberculosis notifications increased by 138.1% (from 44 695 to 106 404), and case notification rates more than doubled from 20 to 44 per 100 000 population. The number of private notifiers increased by over threefold, from 2912 to 9525, during this period. The number of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis cases notified increased by more than two times (from 10 780 to 25 384) and nearly three times (from 1477 to 4096), respectively. The districts where the project was implemented showed a 150.3% increase in case notification rates per 100 000 population from 2017 to 2019 (from 16.8 to 41.9) while in non-project districts, this increase was only 89.8% (from 6.1 to 11.6).

Conclusion

The substantial increase in tuberculosis notifications demonstrate the value of the project in engaging the private sector. Scaling up these interventions is important to consolidate and extend these gains towards tuberculosis elimination.

Is bovine density and ownership associated with human tuberculosis in India?

Zoonotic tuberculosis in humans is caused by infection with bacteria of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex acquired from animals, most commonly cattle. India has the highest burden of human tuberculosis in the world and any zoonotic risk posed by tuberculosis in bovines needs to be managed at the source of infection as a part of efforts to end human tuberculosis. Zoonotic tuberculosis in humans can be severe and is clinically indistinguishable from non-zoonotic tuberculosis. As a consequence, zoonotic tuberculosis remains under-recognised and the significance of its contribution to human tuberculosis is poorly understood. This study aimed to explore any association between bovine density, bovine ownership, and human tuberculosis reporting in India using self-reported tuberculosis data in households and officially reported tuberculosis cases while controlling for common confounders for human tuberculosis. We find an association between human tuberculosis reporting, bovine density and bovine ownership in India. Buffalo density was significantly associated with an increased risk of self-reported tuberculosis in households (odds ratio (OR) = 1.23 (95% credible interval (CI): 1.10-1.39) at household level; incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.04-1.33) at district level), while cattle density (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.71-0.89; IRR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.70-0.87) and ownership of bovines in households (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.9-0.99; IRR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.57-0.79) had a protective association with tuberculosis reporting. It is unclear whether this relates to differences in tuberculosis transmission dynamics, or perhaps an association between bovines and other unexplored confounders for tuberculosis reporting in humans. Our study highlights a need for structured surveillance to estimate the prevalence of tuberculosis in cattle and buffaloes, characterisation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex species present in bovines and transmission analyses at the human-animal interface to better assess the burden and risk pathways of zoonotic tuberculosis in India.

Quantifying antibiotic use in typhoid fever in India: a cross-sectional analysis of private sector medical audit data, 2013-2015

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the antibiotic prescription rates for typhoid in India.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Private sector primary care clinicians in India.

PARTICIPANTS

The data came from prescriptions of a panel of 4600 private sector primary care clinicians selected through a multistage stratified random sampling accounting for the region, specialty type and patient turnover. The data had 671 million prescriptions for antibiotics extracted from the IQVIA database for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Mean annual antibiotic prescription rates; sex-specific and age-specific prescription rates; distribution of antibiotic class.

RESULTS

There were 8.98 million antibiotic prescriptions per year for typhoid, accounting for 714 prescriptions per 100 000 population. Children 10-19 years of age represented 18.6% of the total burden in the country in absolute numbers, 20-29 year age group had the highest age-specific rate, and males had a higher average rate (844/100 000) compared with females (627/100 000). Ten different antibiotics accounted for 72.4% of all prescriptions. Cefixime-ofloxacin combination was the preferred drug of choice for typhoid across all regions except the south. Combination antibiotics are the preferred choice of prescribers for adult patients, while cephalosporins are the preferred choice for children and young age. Quinolones were prescribed as monotherapy in 23.0% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationally representative private sector antibiotic prescription data during 2013-2015 indicate a higher disease burden of typhoid in India than previously estimated. The total prescription rate shows a declining trend. Young adult patients account for close to one-third of the cases and children less than 10 years account for more than a million cases annually.

Estimation of tuberculosis incidence at subnational level using three methods to monitor progress towards ending TB in India, 2015-2020

OBJECTIVES

We verified subnational (state/union territory (UT)/district) claims of achievements in reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence in 2020 compared with 2015, in India.

DESIGN

A community-based survey, analysis of programme data and anti-TB drug sales and utilisation data.

SETTING

National TB Elimination Program and private TB treatment settings in 73 districts that had filed a claim to the Central TB Division of India for progress towards TB-free status.

PARTICIPANTS

Each district was divided into survey units (SU) and one village/ward was randomly selected from each SU. All household members in the selected village were interviewed. Sputum from participants with a history of anti-TB therapy (ATT), those currently experiencing chest symptoms or on ATT were tested using Xpert/Rif/TrueNat. The survey continued until 30 Mycobacterium tuberculosis cases were identified in a district.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We calculated a direct estimate of TB incidence based on incident cases identified in the survey. We calculated an under-reporting factor by matching these cases within the TB notification system. The TB notification adjusted for this factor was the estimate by the indirect method. We also calculated TB incidence from drug sale data in the private sector and drug utilisation data in the public sector. We compared the three estimates of TB incidence in 2020 with TB incidence in 2015.

RESULTS

The estimated direct incidence ranged from 19 (Purba Medinipur, West Bengal) to 1457 (Jaintia Hills, Meghalaya) per 100 000 population. Indirect estimates of incidence ranged between 19 (Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli) and 788 (Dumka, Jharkhand) per 100 000 population. The incidence using drug sale data ranged from 19 per 100 000 population in Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli to 651 per 100 000 population in Centenary, Maharashtra.

CONCLUSION

TB incidence in 1 state, 2 UTs and 35 districts had declined by at least 20% since 2015. Two districts in India were declared TB free in 2020.

Gaps and Interventions across the Diagnostic Care Cascade of TB Patients at the Level of Patient, Community and Health System: A Qualitative Review of the Literature

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be one of the important public health concerns globally, and India is among the seven countries with the largest burden of TB. There has been a consistent increase in the notifications of TB cases across the globe. However, the 2018 estimates envisage a gap of about 30% between the incident and notified cases of TB, indicating a significant number of patients who remain undiagnosed or ‘missed’. It is important to understand who is ‘missed’, find this population, and provide quality care. Given these complexities, we reviewed the diagnostic gaps in the care cascade for TB. We searched Medline via PubMed and CENTRAL databases via the Cochrane Library. The search strategy for PubMed was tailored to individual databases and was as: ((((((tuberculosis[Title/Abstract]) OR (TB[Title/Abstract])) OR (koch *[Title/Abstract])) OR (“tuberculosis”[MeSH Terms]))) AND (((diagnos *) AND (“diagnosis”[MeSH Terms])))). Furthermore, we screened the references list of the potentially relevant studies to seek additional studies. Studies retrieved from these electronic searches and relevant references included in the bibliography of those studies were reviewed. Original studies in English that assessed the causes of diagnostic gaps and interventions used to address them were included. Delays in diagnosis were found to be attributable to both the individuals’ and the health system’s capacity to diagnose and promptly commence treatment. This review provides insights into the diagnostic gaps in a cascade of care for TB and different interventions adopted in studies to close this gap. The major diagnostic gaps identified in this review are as follows: people may not have access to TB diagnostic tests, individuals are at a higher risk of missed diagnosis, services are available but people may not seek care with a diagnostic facility, and patients are not diagnosed despite reaching health facilities. Therefore, reaching the goal to End TB requires putting in place models and methods to provide prompt and quality assured diagnosis to populations at par.

Design of Drug Sales Forecasting Model Using Particle Swarm Optimization Neural Networks Model

The establishment of enterprise target inventory is directly related to the forecast of drug sales volume. Accurate sales forecasting can help businesses not only set accurate target inventory but also avoid inventory backlogs and shortages. In this paper, NN technology is used to forecast sales and is optimized using the PSO algorithm, resulting in the creation of a drug sale forecast model. The model optimizes the weights and thresholds of NN using the improved PSO optimization algorithm and predicts the periodic components based on time correlation characteristics, effectively describing the trend growth and seasonal fluctuations of sales forecast data. Furthermore, the model in this paper has been creatively improved according to the needs of practical application, which has improved the shortcomings of traditional NN, such as long training time, slow convergence speed, and ease to fall into local minima, to improve performance and quality, and has received positive results in application. The experimental results show that this model has a prediction accuracy of 96.14 percent, which is 12.78 percent higher than the traditional BP model. The optimized model can be used to forecast drug sales in a practical and feasible way.

Initiating a district-based public-private mix to overcome tuberculosis missing cases in Indonesia: readiness to engage

Background

District-based public–private mix (DPPM) is a variant of a relatively new PPM strategy of addressing missing cases in the tuberculosis (TB) care cascade in Indonesia. We aimed to determine the readiness of various stakeholders to engage in implementing the DPPM strategy.

Methods

The research design was sequential exploratory mixed methods. A qualitative study in the first stage was carried out through in-depth interviews, FGD and study documents. Data were analyzed through coding, categorizing, pattern matching and theorizing. The second stage was a survey conducted using instruments built in the first stage. Data were analyzed using Rasch modeling and logistic regression.

Results

District TB case detection rate (CDR) has improved from 35% (2018) to 104% (2019). The contribution of private hospitals has increased considerably. However, there were almost none from the private primary healthcare facilities. The substantive theory generated indicates that awareness and concern of the TB problem, TB program comprehension and involvement, and institutional support are behind the readiness of facilities to engage the TB program (the readiness to engage). The measurement results indicate the significant correlation of all dimensions on readiness to engage. Concern of the TB problem and institutional support are variables that influence readiness to engage (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Engaging private and public facility stakeholders is a challenge for local government. Intervention is through a personalized approach, encourages institutional support of health facilities for the TB program and system approach.

Tuberculosis and Diabetes in India: Stakeholder Perspectives on Health System Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Care

Background

India has a dual burden of tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Integrated care for TB/DM is still in the early phase in the country and can be considerably enhanced by understanding and addressing the challenges identified from stakeholders’ perspectives. This study explored the challenges and opportunities at individual, health system and policy level for integrated care of TB/DM comorbidities in India.

Methods

We used an outlier case study approach and conducted stakeholder interviews and focus group discussions with relevant program personnel including field staff and program managers of TB and DM control programs as well as officials of partners in Indian states, Kerala and Bihar.

Results

The integrated management requires strengthening the laboratory diagnosis and drug management components of the two individual programs for TB and DM. Focused training and sensitization of healthcare workers in public and private sector across all levels is essential. A district level management unit that coordinates the two vertical programs with a horizontal integration at the primary care level is the way forward. Substantial improvement in data infrastructure is essential to improve decision-making process.

Conclusion

Bi-directional screening and management of TB/DM comorbidities in India requires substantial investment in human resources, infrastructure, drug availability, and data infrastructure.

STEPS - a patient centric and low-cost solution to ensure standards of TB care to patients reaching private sector in India

BACKGROUND

More than half of the TB patients in India seek care from the private sector. Two decades of attempts by the National TB Program to improve collaboration between the public and private sectors have not worked except in a few innovative pilots. The System for TB Elimination in Private Sector (STEPS) evolved in 2019 as a solution to ensure standards of TB care to every patient reaching the private sector. We formally evaluated the STEPS to judge the success of the model in achieving its outcomes and to inform decisions about scaling up of the model to other parts of the country.

METHODS

An evaluation team was constituted involving all relevant stakeholders. A logic framework for the STEPS model was developed. The evaluation focused on (i) processes - whether the activities are taking place as intended and (ii) proximal outcomes - improvements in quality of care and strengthening of TB surveillance system. We (i) visited 30 randomly selected STEPS centres for assessing infrastructure and process using a checklist, (ii) validated the patient data with management information system of National TB Elimination Program (NTEP) by telephonic interview of 57 TB patients (iii) analysed the quality of patient care indicators over 3 years from the management information system (iv) conducted in-depth interviews (IDI) with 33 beneficiaries and stakeholders to understand their satisfaction and perceived benefits of STEPS and (v) performed cost analysis for the intervention from the perspective of NTEP, private hospital and patients.

RESULTS

Evaluation revealed that STEPS is an acceptable model to all stakeholders. IDIs revealed that all patients were satisfied about the services received. Data in management information system of NTEP were consistent with the hospital records and with the information provided by the patient. Quality of TB care indicators for patients diagnosed in private hospitals showed improvements over years as proportion of TB patients notified from private sector with a microbiological confirmation of diagnosis improved from 25% in 2018 to 38% in 2020 and the documented treatment success rate increased from 33% (2018 cohort) to 88% (2019 cohort). Total additional programmatic cost (deducting cost for patient entitlements) per additional patient with successful treatment outcome was estimated to be 67 USD. Total additional expense/business loss for implementing STEPS for the hospital diagnosing 100 TB patients in a year was estimated to be 573 USD while additional minimum returns for the hospital was estimated to be 1145 USD.

CONCLUSION

Evaluation confirmed that STEPS is a low cost and patient-centric strategy. STEPS successfully addressed the gaps in the quality of care for patients seeking care in the private sector and ensured that services are aligned with the standards of TB care. STEPS could be scaled up to similar settings.

Using a Pharmacy-Based Surveillance System to Improve Standards for TB Care in Kerala, India

A pharmacy-based surveillance system in Kerala, India, has helped to improve TB patient notifications from the private sector, build better public-private partnerships, and improve the quality of TB diagnosis. Pharmacy-based surveillance has the potential to strengthen TB surveillance and facilitate standards of TB care.

Introduction:

Eleven anti-TB drugs were included in the Government of India's Schedule H1 drug regulations in 2014. The National Strategic Plan for TB Elimination in India 2017–2025 recognized the opportunity to strengthen the TB surveillance system and improve the quality of TB care by implementing the Schedule H1 regulation. However, there were no documented systematic large-scale efforts to use Schedule H1 regulation to support TB surveillance or improve the quality of care. We aimed to document the process of implementation of the Schedule H1 regulation to enhance the quality of TB care and strengthen the TB surveillance system in Kerala, India.

Methods:

We conducted 33 in-depth interviews of the drugs control department enforcement officers, chemist shop owners, private-sector doctors, leaders of professional medical associations, and program managers and key staff of the TB Elimination Program in Kerala. Major themes identified were the process of implementation of Schedule H1 and how the National TB Elimination Program used the information. Findings from the qualitative interviews were corroborated with the quantitative information from the annual program performance reports and anti-TB drug sales data.

Results:

The TB Elimination Program of Kerala used the information from the Schedule H1 drug register to identify the missing TB cases and strengthen TB notification, identify providers for engagement and extend support to them for ensuring standards of TB care, and provide feedback to providers regarding prescription practices. Stakeholders felt that implementation of Schedule H1 surveillance has helped to improve TB patient notifications from the private sector, build better public-private partnerships, and improve the quality of TB diagnosis and treatment in Kerala.

Conclusion:

Pharmacy-based drug sales data collected either through regulatory or non-regulatory methods have immense potential to support TB elimination programs.

Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Background

Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model.

Results

During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.

Conclusion

Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01740-y.

Engaging with the private healthcare sector for the control of tuberculosis in India: cost and cost-effectiveness

Background

The control of tuberculosis (TB) in India is complicated by the presence of a large, disorganised private sector where most patients first seek care. Following pilots in Mumbai and Patna (two major cities in India), an initiative known as the ‘Public–Private Interface Agency’ (PPIA) is now being expanded across the country. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up PPIA operations, in line with India’s National Strategic Plan for TB control.

Methods

Focusing on Mumbai and Patna, we collected cost data from implementing organisations in both cities and combined this data with models of TB transmission dynamics. Estimating the cost per disability adjusted life years (DALY) averted between 2014 (the start of PPIA scale-up) and 2025, we assessed cost-effectiveness using two willingness-to-pay approaches: a WHO-CHOICE threshold based on per-capita economic productivity, and a more stringent threshold incorporating opportunity costs in the health system.

Findings

A PPIA scaled up to ultimately reach 50% of privately treated TB patients in Mumbai and Patna would cost, respectively, US$228 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 159 to 320) per DALY averted and US$564 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 409 to 775) per DALY averted. In Mumbai, the PPIA would be cost-effective relative to all thresholds considered. In Patna, if focusing on adherence support, rather than on improved diagnosis, the PPIA would be cost-effective relative to all thresholds considered. These differences between sites arise from variations in the burden of drug resistance: among the services of a PPIA, improved diagnosis (including rapid tests with genotypic drug sensitivity testing) has greatest value in settings such as Mumbai, with a high burden of drug-resistant TB.

Conclusions

To accelerate decline in TB incidence, it is critical first to engage effectively with the private sector in India. Mechanisms such as the PPIA offer cost-effective ways of doing so, particularly when tailored to local settings.

Barriers and facilitators to accessing tuberculosis care in Nepal: a qualitative study to inform the design of a socioeconomic support intervention

OBJECTIVE

Psychosocial and economic (socioeconomic) barriers, including poverty, stigma and catastrophic costs, impede access to tuberculosis (TB) services in low-income countries. We aimed to characterise the socioeconomic barriers and facilitators of accessing TB services in Nepal to inform the design of a locally appropriate socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households.

DESIGN

From August 2018 to July 2019, we conducted an exploratory qualitative study consisting of semistructured focus group discussions (FGDs) with purposively selected multisectoral stakeholders. The data were managed in NVivo V.12, coded by consensus and analysed thematically.

SETTING

The study was conducted in four districts, Makwanpur, Chitwan, Dhanusha and Mahottari, which have a high prevalence of poverty and TB.

PARTICIPANTS

Seven FGDs were conducted with 54 in-country stakeholders, grouped by stakeholders, including people with TB (n=21), community stakeholders (n=13) and multidisciplinary TB healthcare professionals (n=20) from the National TB Programme.

RESULTS

The perceived socioeconomic barriers to accessing TB services were: inadequate TB knowledge and advocacy; high food and transportation costs; income loss and stigma. The perceived facilitators to accessing TB care and services were: enhanced championing and awareness-raising about TB and TB services; social protection including health insurance; cash, vouchers and/or nutritional allowance to cover food and travel costs; and psychosocial support and counselling integrated with existing adherence counselling from the National TB Programme.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that support interventions that integrate TB education, psychosocial counselling and expand on existing cash transfer schemes would be locally appropriate and could address the socioeconomic barriers to accessing and engaging with TB services faced by TB-affected households in Nepal. The findings have been used to inform the design of a socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households. The acceptability, feasibility and impact of this intervention on TB-related costs, stigma and TB treatment outcomes, is now being evaluated in a pilot implementation study in Nepal.

Air pollution and meteorological conditions significantly contribute to the worsening of allergic conjunctivitis: a regional 20-city, 5-year study in Northeast China

This study is the first to explore the potential associations among allergic conjunctivitis (AC), air pollution, and meteorological conditions in Northeast China. Data of meteorology, ambient atmospheric pollutants, and the incidence of allergic conjunctivitis (IAC) in prefecture-level cities between the years 2014 and 2018 are analyzed. The results show an increasing trend in the AC of average growth rate per annum 7.6%, with the highest incidence in the provincial capitals. The IAC is positively correlated with atmospheric pollutants (i.e., PM_2.5, PM₁₀, CO, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃) and meteorological factors (i.e., air temperature and wind speed), but negatively correlated with relative humidity. These results suggest that the IAC is directly proportional to pollution level and climatic conditions, and also the precedence of air pollution. We have further obtained the threshold values of atmospheric pollutants concentration and meteorological factors, a turning point above which more AC may be induced. Compared with the air quality standard advised by China and the World Health Organization (WHO), both thresholds of PM₁₀ (70 μg m^-3) and PM_2.5 (45 μg m^-3) are higher than current standards and pose a less environmental risk for the IAC. SO₂ threshold (23 μg m^-3) is comparable to the WHO standard and significantly lower than that of China's, indicating greater environmental risks in China. Both thresholds of NO₂ (27 μg m^-3) and O₃ (88 μg m^-3) are below current standards, indicating that they are major environmental risk factors for the IAC. Our findings highlight the importance of atmospheric environmental protection and reference for health-based amendment.

Role of informal healthcare providers in tuberculosis care in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic scoping review

Achieving targets set in the End TB Strategy is still a distant goal for many Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). The importance of strengthening public-private partnership by engaging all identified providers in Tuberculosis (TB) care has long been advocated in global TB policies and strategies. However, Informal Healthcare Providers (IPs) are not yet prioritised and engaged in National Tuberculosis Programs (NTPs) globally. There exists a substantial body of evidence that confirms an important contribution of IPs in TB care. A systematic understanding of their role is necessary to ascertain their potential in improving TB care in LMICs. The purpose of this review is to scope the role of IPs in TB care. The scoping review was guided by a framework developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. An electronic search of literature was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Global Health, CINAHL, and Web of Science. Of a total 5234 records identified and retrieved, 92 full-text articles were screened, of which 13 were included in the final review. An increasing trend was observed in publication over time, with most published between 2010–2019. In 60% of the articles, NTPs were mentioned as a collaborator in the study. For detection and diagnosis, IPs were primarily involved in identifying and referring patients. Administering DOT (Directly Observed Treatment) to the patient was the major task assigned to IPs for treatment and support. There is a paucity of evidence on prevention, as only one study involved IPs to perform this role. Traditional health providers were the most commonly featured, but there was not much variation in the role by provider type. All studies reported a positive role of IPs in improving TB care outcomes. This review demonstrates that IPs can be successfully engaged in various roles in TB care with appropriate support and training. Their contribution can support countries to achieve their national and global targets if prioritized in National TB Programs.

TB case fatality and recurrence in a private sector cohort in Mumbai, India

BACKGROUND: Half of India´s three million TB patients are treated in the largely unregulated private sector, where quality of care is often poor. Private provider interface agencies (PPIAs) seek to improve private sector quality of care, which can be measured in terms of case fatality and recurrence rates.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort survey of 4,000 private sector patients managed by the PATH PPIA between 2014 and 2017. We estimated treatment and post-treatment case-fatality ratios (CFRs) and recurrence rates. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify predictors of fatality and recurrence. Patient loss to follow-up was adjusted for using selection weighting.RESULTS: The treatment CFR was 7.1% (95% CI 6.0-8.2). At 24 months post-treatment, the CFR was 2.4% (95% CI 1.7-3.0) and the recurrence rate was 1.9% (95% CI 1.3-2.5). Treatment fatality was associated with age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02-1.03), clinical diagnosis (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45-0.84), treatment duration (HR 0.09, 95% CI 0.06-0.10) and adherence. Post-treatment fatality was associated with treatment duration (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.79-0.91) and adherence.CONCLUSIONS: We found a moderate treatment phase CFR among PPIA-managed private sector patient with low rates of post-treatment fatality and recurrence. Routine monitoring of patient outcomes after treatment would strengthen PPIAs and inform future post TB interventions.

Patient treatment pathways of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis cases in coastal South India: Road to a drug resistant tuberculosis center

Background: Delays in initiating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) treatment adds risk to individual patients and the community due to disease progression, and on-going transmission. The Government of India offers free TB diagnosis and treatment, however many presumptive MDR TB patients wander within the Indian healthcare system and delay accessing the programme. To improve access to care, it is imperative to understand the treatment pathways taken by MDR TB patients. We aimed to describe the diagnostic and treatment pathway taken by presumptive MDR TB patients registered under Programmatic Management of Drug-resistant TB Program.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study amongst patients registered during August 2016 – April 2017 at one District Drug Resistance Tuberculosis centre of Dakshina Kannada district in Karnataka, India. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the number, type (private and public sector), and dates of healthcare facilities (HCFs) visits prior to the initiation of MDR TB treatment. Delays in pathway were measured in days and summarised as median and interquartile range (IQR), from the date of onset of illness until the initiation of MDR TB treatment.

Results: We found that patients preferred private HCFs; however, due to lack of treatment and unaffordability they shifted to public HCFs. Median delay to register under the program was more in private HCFs (180 days) in comparison with public HCFs (120 days). We also found that the detection rates were much higher in public HCFs (80%).

Conclusion: The present study found that there was substantial patient delay and total delay in diagnosis and treatment of MDR TB patients. Private HCF was first point of contact for most of the patients; however those visited public HCF diagnosed earlier as compared to others. The government should involve private HCFs to provide standard diagnostics and treatment to the patients seeking a private facility.

STEPS: A Solution for Ensuring Standards of TB Care for Patients Reaching Private Hospitals in India

A low-cost model for engaging the private sector to address gaps in TB care and ensuring that patients in the private sector receive the standards of care in India was feasible. The pilot project showed improvements in standards of care, which benefits the patient, government, private hospitals, and society.

Background:

In India, the private sector diagnoses and treats more patients with TB than the public sector. Gaps in the TB care cascade were observed more among the patients diagnosed in the private sector.

Concept:

The System for TB Elimination in Private Sector (STEPS) model evolved as a solution to address gaps in the quality of care for patients in the private sector by ensuring standards of TB care. STEPS has 3 components: a consortium of private hospitals, a coalition of all professional medical associations, and a STEPS center in each private hospital. STEPS centers act as a single window for notification, linkage for social welfare measures, contact investigation, chemoprophylaxis, direct benefit transfers, and treatment adherence support.

Intervention:

STEPS was piloted in 14 districts in the state of Kerala. All 14 districts formed consortiums of private hospital management for policy support and a coalition of professional medical associations for advocacy with doctors. STEPS centers were established in 318 private hospitals.

Results:

Notification to National TB Elimination Program from the private sector improved by 26% when compared to the previous year. Among the patients notified from the private sector, microbiologically confirmed cases increased by 81%, rifampicin resistance testing at baseline increased by 56%, and the percentage of those informed of their HIV status increased by 95%. The percentage of patients notified from the private sector with their treatment outcome reported improved from 39% (2018) to 99% (2019).

Conclusion:

The STEPS model demonstrated that a low-cost locally customized private sector engagement model is feasible and is beneficial to society. STEPS could be one of the major solutions for supporting patients reaching the private sector.

Controlling the drug-resistant tuberculosis epidemic in India: challenges and implications

India has a higher tuberculosis (TB) burden than any other country, accounting for an estimated one-fourth of the global burden. Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) presents a major public health problem in India. Patients with DR-TB often require profound changes in their drug regimens, which are invariably linked to poor treatment adherence and sub-optimal treatment outcomes compared to drug-sensitive TB. The challenge of addressing DR-TB is critical for India, as India contributes over 27% of global DR-TB cases. In recent decades, India has been proactive in its battle against TB, even implementing a revised National Strategic Plan to eliminate TB by 2025. However, to achieve this ambitious goal, the country will need to take a multifaceted approach with respect to its management of DR-TB. Despite concerted efforts made by the National TB Elimination Program, India faces substantial challenges with regard to DR-TB care, especially in peripheral and resource-limited endemic zones. This article describes some of the major challenges associated with mitigating the growing DR-TB epidemic in India and their implications.

Case fatality and recurrent tuberculosis among patients managed in the private sector: A cohort study in Patna, India

BACKGROUND

A key component of the WHO End TB Strategy is quality of care, for which case fatality is a critical marker. Half of India's nearly 3 million TB patients are treated in the highly unregulated private sector, yet little is known about the outcomes of these patients. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the case fatality ratio (CFR) and rate of recurrent TB among patients managed in the private healthcare sector in Patna, India.

METHODS

World Health Partners' Private Provider Interface Agencies (PPIA) pilot project in Patna has treated 89,906 private sector TB patients since 2013. A random sample of 4,000 patients treated from 2014 to 2016 were surveyed in 2018 for case fatality and recurrent TB. CFR is defined as the proportion of patients who die during the period of interest. Treatment CFRs, post-treatment CFRs and rates of recurrent TB were estimated. Predictors for fatality and recurrence were identified using Cox proportional hazards modelling. Survey non-response was adjusted for using inverse probability selection weighting.

RESULTS

The survey response rate was 56.0%. The weighted average follow-up times were 8.7 months in the treatment phase and 26.4 months in the post-treatment phase. Unobserved patients were more likely to have less than one month of treatment adherence (32.0% vs. 13.5%) and were more likely to live in rural Patna (21.9% vs. 15.0%). The adjusted treatment phase CFR was 7.27% (5.97%, 8.49%) and at 24 months post-treatment was 3.32% (2.36%, 4.42%). The adjusted 24 month post-treatment phase recurrent TB rate was 3.56% (2.54%, 4.79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our cohort study provides critical estimates of TB patient outcomes in the Indian private sector, and accounts for selection bias. Patients in the private sector in Patna experienced a moderate treatment CFR but rates of recurrent TB and post-treatment fatality were low.

TB notification rates across parliamentary constituencies in India: a step towards data-driven political engagement

OBJECTIVE

National averages obscure geographic variation in program performance. We determined Parliamentary Constituency (PC)-wise estimates of TB notification to guide political engagement.

METHODS

We extracted district-level TB notification data from the 2018 annual TB report. We derived PC-level estimates by building a 'cross-walk' between districts and PCs using boundary shapefiles. We described the spatial distribution of the PC-wise estimates of Total Notification Rate and percentage of Private Sector Notification.

RESULTS

The median PC-wise Total Notification Rate was 126.24/100 000 (IQR: 94.86/100 000, 162.22/100 000). The median PC-wise Percentage Private Sector Notification was 18.03% (IQR: 9.56%, 26.84%). Only 16 (2.94%) PCs met the target of 50% private sector notification. Most of high notification rates in PCs were driven by high notification in public sector. There was geographic - both interstate and within state inter-PC - variation in the estimates of these indicators. The study identified some geographic patterns of notification - high positive outlier PCs with adjoining PCs in lower deciles of notification rates, intra-state differences in PC performance, and similarities in notification rates of adjoining PCs in different states.

CONCLUSION

In addition to regional inequality, the study identified geospatial patterns that can aid in the formulation of suitable interventions. These include decongestion of overburdened facilities by strengthening poorly performing units. The PCs with a high percentage Private Sector Notification can act as role models for neighbouring PCs to improve private sector engagement. MPs can play a crucial role in mobilising additional resources, creating awareness, and establishing inter-PC and inter-state collaboration to improve TB program performance.

Pharmacy based surveillance for identifying missing tuberculosis cases: A mixed methods study from South India

BACKGROUND

No Indian studies have assessed the implementation of recent policy on pharmacy based surveillance and its contribution in TB notification. So, this study was conducted with objectives to describe: a) pharmacy based TB surveillance and TB notification, and b) experiences of pharmacy based surveillance implementation from the programme managers and pharmacists perspective.

METHODS

A mixed methods study-quantitative (cross-sectional) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) in two selected districts Dharmapuri and Salem districts of Tamil Nadu State, India.

RESULTS

In 2018, 45 (11%) of 397 pharmacies in Dharmapuri and 90 (6%) of 1457 pharmacies in Salem districts reported sale of anti-TB drugs to 1307 and 1673 persons respectively. Upon validation through direct patient contact 942 (72%) persons in Dharmapuri and 863 (52%) persons were identified as previously 'un-notified' TB patients. These patients constituted 20% and 29% of the total TB cases notified in Dharmapuri and Salem respectively. The enablers for implementing this activity were: understanding the importance of notification, availability of resources (manpower, computers) to record, report and validate the patient data, repeated trainings and partnerships. The barriers were: patients' hesitancy to share their details to pharmacists (confidentiality), cumbersome recording and reporting process, difficulties in recording patient details during high workload busy business hours.

CONCLUSION

This process contributed about one-fourth of the TB patients notified in these districts. Its implementation needs to be strengthened and should be scaled up in other parts of the country.

The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in India and China

BACKGROUND

Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India.

METHODS

We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027-2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses.

RESULTS

By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69-72) and 72% (UI: 70-74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30-32) and 44% (UI: 42-47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8-1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9-1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.

Integrating Xpert MTB/RIF for TB diagnosis in the private sector: evidence from large-scale pilots in Patna and Mumbai, India

Background

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) has been recommended by WHO as the initial diagnostic test for TB and rifampicin-resistance detection. Existing evidence regarding its uptake is limited to public health systems and corresponding resource and infrastructure challenges. It cannot be readily extended to private providers, who treat more than half of India’s TB cases and demonstrate complex diagnostic behavior.

Methods

We used routine program data collected from November 2014 to April 2017 from large-scale private sector engagement pilots in Mumbai and Patna. It included diagnostic vouchers issued to approximately 150,000 patients by about 1400 providers, aggregated to 18,890 provider-month observations. We constructed three metrics to capture provider behavior with regards to adoption of Xpert and studied their longitudinal variation: (i) Uptake (ordering of test), (ii) Utilization for TB diagnosis, and (iii) Non-adherence to negative results. We estimated multivariate linear regression models to assess heterogeneity in provider behavior based on providers’ prior experience and Xpert testing volumes.

Results

Uptake of Xpert increased considerably in both Mumbai (from 36 to 60.4%) and Patna (from 12.2 to 45.1%). However, utilization of Xpert for TB diagnosis and non-adherence to negative Xpert results did not show systematic trends over time. In regression models, cumulative number of Xpert tests ordered was significantly associated with Xpert uptake in Patna and utilization for diagnosis in Mumbai (p-value< 0.01). Uptake of Xpert and its utilization for diagnosis was predicted to be higher in high-volume providers compared to low-volume providers and this gap was predicted to widen over time.

Conclusions

Private sector engagement led to substantial increase in uptake of Xpert, especially among high-volume providers, but did not show strong evidence of Xpert results being integrated with TB diagnosis. Increasing availability and affordability of a technically superior diagnostic tool may not be sufficient to fundamentally change diagnosis and treatment of TB in the private sector. Behavioral interventions, specifically aimed at, integrating Xpert results into clinical decision making of private providers may be required to impact patient-level outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-05817-1.

Current incidence, treatment costs and seasonality of pinkeye in Australian cattle estimated from sales of three popular medications

Pinkeye is an economically important ocular disease occurring in all cattle producing areas of Australia. This study was undertaken to estimate the frequency of occurrence of the disease in Australia and treatment costs of the disease to the cattle industry using the sales of popular pinkeye medications as a surrogate indicator. Monthly sales data for Orbenin® Eye Ointment, Opticlox® Eye Ointment and Terramycin® Pinkeye Aerosol were analysed. We first estimated the number of cattle that can be treated with a syringe or a can and then using the data of sales of these pinkeye medications and the total cattle population of Australia, estimated the incidence of pinkeye. Probability distributions were used to include uncertainty around the estimates. Costs to producers were estimated based on retail prices of these medications. The results indicated that 732,864 syringes of Orbenin® Eye Ointment, 134,800 syringes of Opticlox® Eye Ointment and 27,755 cans of Terramycin® Pinkeye Aerosol are sold in Australia per year. Based on some assumptions of the number of cases treated by these drugs and number of cases left untreated, the number of cattle affected by pinkeye each year in Australia was estimated to be 2.80 million (95 % PI: 1.76, 4.65) or 10.25 % (95 % PI: 6.43, 16.97) of the entire Australian cattle herd. The cattle industry is expected to lose AU$ 9.67 million (95 % PI: 8.56, 13.11) each year just considering the cost of these three drugs. The results suggest that losses due to pinkeye in the Australian cattle industry are considerably higher than previously thought and should be used to inform the development of disease prevention and control policies.

Trade-offs between cost and accuracy in active case finding for tuberculosis: A dynamic modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Active case finding (ACF) may be valuable in tuberculosis (TB) control, but questions remain about its optimum implementation in different settings. For example, smear microscopy misses up to half of TB cases, yet is cheap and detects the most infectious TB cases. What, then, is the incremental value of using more sensitive and specific, yet more costly, tests such as Xpert MTB/RIF in ACF in a high-burden setting?

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We constructed a dynamic transmission model of TB, calibrated to be consistent with an urban slum population in India. We applied this model to compare the potential cost and impact of 2 hypothetical approaches following initial symptom screening: (i) 'moderate accuracy' testing employing a microscopy-like test (i.e., lower cost but also lower accuracy) for bacteriological confirmation and (ii) 'high accuracy' testing employing an Xpert-like test (higher cost but also higher accuracy, while also detecting rifampicin resistance). Results suggest that ACF using a moderate-accuracy test could in fact cost more overall than using a high-accuracy test. Under an illustrative budget of US$20 million in a slum population of 2 million, high-accuracy testing would avert 1.14 (95% credible interval 0.75-1.99, with p = 0.28) cases relative to each case averted by moderate-accuracy testing. Test specificity is a key driver: High-accuracy testing would be significantly more impactful at the 5% significance level, as long as the high-accuracy test has specificity at least 3 percentage points greater than the moderate-accuracy test. Additional factors promoting the impact of high-accuracy testing are that (i) its ability to detect rifampicin resistance can lead to long-term cost savings in second-line treatment and (ii) its higher sensitivity contributes to the overall cases averted by ACF. Amongst the limitations of this study, our cost model has a narrow focus on the commodity costs of testing and treatment; our estimates should not be taken as indicative of the overall cost of ACF. There remains uncertainty about the true specificity of tests such as smear and Xpert-like tests in ACF, relating to the accuracy of the reference standard under such conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that cheaper diagnostics do not necessarily translate to less costly ACF, as any savings from the test cost can be strongly outweighed by factors including false-positive TB treatment, reduced sensitivity, and foregone savings in second-line treatment. In resource-limited settings, it is therefore important to take all of these factors into account when designing cost-effective strategies for ACF.

Field sales force model to increase adoption of a novel tuberculosis diagnostic test among private providers: evidence from India

BACKGROUND

Impact of novel high-quality tuberculosis (TB) tests such as Xpert MTB/RIF has been limited due to low uptake among private providers in high-burden countries including India. Our objective was to assess the impact of a demand generation intervention comprising field sales force on the uptake of high-quality TB tests by providers and its financial sustainability for private labs in the long run.

METHODS

We implemented a demand generation intervention across five Indian cities between October 2014 and June 2016 and compared the change in the quantity of Xpert cartridges ordered by labs in these cities from before (February 2013-September 2014) to after intervention (October 2014-December 2015) to corresponding change in labs in comparable non-intervention cities. We embedded this difference-in-differences estimate within a financial model to calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) if the labs were to invest in an Xpert machine with or without the demand generation intervention.

RESULTS

The intervention resulted in an estimated 60 additional Xpert cartridges ordered per lab-month in the intervention group, which yielded an estimated increase of 11 500 tests over the post-intervention period, at an additional cost of US$13.3-US$17.63 per test. Further, we found that investing in this intervention would increase the IRR from 4.8% to 5.5% for hospital labs but yield a negative IRR for standalone labs.

CONCLUSIONS

Field sales force model can generate additional demand for Xpert at private labs, but additional strategies may be needed to ensure its financial sustainability.

Social Enterprise Model (SEM) for private sector tuberculosis screening and care in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

In Bangladesh, about 80% of healthcare is provided by the private sector. Although free diagnosis and care is offered in the public sector, only half of the estimated number of people with tuberculosis are diagnosed, treated, and notified to the national program. Private sector engagement strategies often have been small scale and time limited. We evaluated a Social Enterprise Model combining external funding and income generation at three tuberculosis screening centres across the Dhaka Metropolitan Area for diagnosing and treating tuberculosis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The model established three tuberculosis screening centres across Dhaka Metropolitan Area that carried the icddr,b brand and offered free Xpert MTB/RIF tests to patients visiting the screening centres for subsidized, digital chest radiographs from April 2014 to December 2017. A network of private and public health care providers, and community recommendation was formed for patient referral. No financial incentives were offered to physicians for referrals. Revenues from radiography were used to support screening centres' operation. Tuberculosis patients could choose to receive treatment from the private or public sector. Between 2014 and 2017, 1,032 private facilities networked with 8,466 private providers were mapped within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. 64, 031 patients with TB symptoms were referred by the private providers, public sector and community residents to the three screening centres with 80% coming from private providers. 4,270 private providers made at least one referral. Overall, 10,288 pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis cases were detected and 7,695 were bacteriologically positive by Xpert, corresponding to 28% of the total notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area.

CONCLUSION

The model established a network of private providers who referred individuals with presumptive tuberculosis without financial incentives to icddr,b's screening centres, facilitating a quarter of total tuberculosis notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area. Scaling up this approach may enhance national and international tuberculosis response.

The impact of chest radiography and Xpert MTB/RIF testing among household contacts in Chennai, India

Tuberculosis prevalence surveys have demonstrated the benefit of screening with chest x-ray (CXR) and sensitive diagnostic tests compared to symptoms and smear microscopy. However, in programmatic practice there is little evidence on the yield of different algorithms. We implemented contact tracing in Chennai, India for adult sputum-positive TB patients registered from January 2015 to March 2016. Patients with symptoms or abnormal X-ray findings further underwent testing using Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) and smear microscopy. A retrospective cohort study was done to summarize the key findings. We verbally screened 5553 contacts for symptoms, CXR through private sector collaboration, Xpert, and smear microscopy. Overall, 1312 (23.6%) contacts screened positive. CXR alone identified 531 (40.5%) of them, 679 (51.8%) were symptom-positive only, while 102 (7.8%) were positive on both the symptom and CXR screen. Overall, 35 bacteriologically positive cases were identified (0.7%). A standard approach of symptoms screening followed by microscopy identified only 9 (25.7%) of the total number of bacteriologically positive cases, whereas the combination of a CRX screening followed by microscopy identified 13 (37.1%) of the cases. The algorithm of symptoms screening followed by Xpert testing, detected 20 cases, whereas the combination of symptoms and CXR followed by Xpert increased this number to 35 (75% increase compared to symptoms and Xpert). Optimal use of more sensitive screening tests, better diagnostic tests, and novel private sector engagement can improve diagnostic yield in a programmatic setting.

The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated.

METHODS

We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact.

FINDINGS

Even temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06-1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333-394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100-44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8-17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826-6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815-1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary "catch-up" TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased.

INTERPRETATION

Lockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted.

FUNDING

USAID and Stop TB Partnership.

The TB REACH Initiative: Supporting TB Elimination Efforts in the Asia-Pacific

After many years of TB 'control' and incremental progress, the TB community is talking about ending the disease, yet this will only be possible with a shift in the way we approach the TB response. While the Asia-Pacific region has the highest TB burden worldwide, it also has the opportunity to lead the quest to end TB by embracing the four areas laid out in this series: using data to target hotspots, initiating active case finding, provisioning preventive TB treatment, and employing a biosocial approach. The Stop TB Partnership's TB REACH initiative provides a platform to support partners in the development, evaluation and scale-up of new and innovative technologies and approaches to advance TB programs. We present several approaches TB REACH is taking to support its partners in the Asia-Pacific and globally to advance our collective response to end TB.

Quality of tuberculosis care in the private health sector

As countries move towards achieving universal health coverage, efforts to engage all care providers have gained more significance. Over a third of people estimated to have developed TB in 2018 were not detected and notified by national TB programs (NTPs). This gap is more pronounced in countries with large private sectors, especially those with a high burden of TB. Health care providers outside the scope of NTPs, including the private and informal sector, are often the first point of care for TB patients. However, these providers are not fully engaged despite evidence from country experiences and projects that demonstrate increased detection and good treatment outcomes through publicprivate mix (PPM) approaches. While there are often concerns about quality of care in public facilities, there is also increasing evidence that quality of TB care in the private sector falls short of international standards in many places and urgently needs improvement. Failure to engage the full range of health care providers for TB has serious consequences in terms of access to quality care, resulting in increased transmission as a result of delayed diagnosis and treatment; excess mortality and morbidity as a result of inappropriate treatment; and increased drug resistance as a result of incomplete treatment. Recent attention to this issue has led to significant increases in private TB notifications, especially in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, but the gap between notification and the extension of quality program services for provision of treatment and care appears to be growing.