A score to predict and stratify risk of tuberculosis in adult contacts of tuberculosis index cases: a prospective derivation and external validation cohort study

Age and sex influence antibody profiles associated with tuberculosis progression

Antibody features vary with tuberculosis (TB) disease state. Whether clinical variables, such as age or sex, influence associations between Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antibody responses and disease state is not well explored. Here we profiled Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antibody responses in 140 TB-exposed South African individuals from the Adolescent Cohort Study. We identified distinct response features in individuals progressing to active TB from non-progressing, matched controls. A multivariate antibody score differentially associated with progression (SeroScore) identified progressors up to 2 years before TB diagnosis, earlier than that achieved with the RISK6 transcriptional signature of progression. We validated these antibody response features in the Grand Challenges 6-74 cohort. Both the SeroScore and RISK6 correlated better with risk of TB progression in adolescents compared with adults, and in males compared with females. This suggests that age and sex are important, underappreciated modifiers of antibody responses associated with TB progression.

Effectiveness of preventive treatment among different age groups and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status: a systematic review and individual-participant data meta-analysis of contact tracing studies

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a preventable disease. However, there is debate regarding which individuals would benefit most from tuberculosis preventive treatment and whether these benefits vary in settings with a high burden and low burden of tuberculosis. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment in exposed individuals of differing ages and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status while considering tuberculosis burden of the settings.

METHODS

In this systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis, we investigated the development of incident tuberculosis in people closely exposed to individuals with tuberculosis. We searched for studies published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 6, 2018, in MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase. We restricted our search to cohort studies; case-control studies and outbreak reports were excluded. Two reviewers evaluated titles, abstracts, and full text articles for eligibility. At each stage, two reviewers discussed discrepancies and re-evaluated articles until a consensus was reached. Individual-participant data and a pre-specified list of variables, including characteristics of the exposed contact, the index patient, and environmental characteristics, were requested from authors of all eligible studies; contacts exposed to a drug-resistant tuberculosis index patient were excluded. The primary study outcome was incident tuberculosis. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident tuberculosis with mixed-effects Cox regression models with a study-level random effect. We estimated the number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent one person developing tuberculosis. Propensity score matching procedures were used in all analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018087022).

FINDINGS

After screening 25 358 records for eligibility, 439 644 participants from 32 cohort studies were included in the individual-participant data meta-analysis. Participants were followed for 1 396 413 person-years (median of 2·7 years [IQR 1·3-4.4]), during which 2496 people were diagnosed with incident tuberculosis. Overall, effectiveness of preventive treatment was 49% (aHR 0·51 [95% CI 0·44-0·60]). Participants with a positive tuberculin-skin-test (TST) or IFNγ release assay (IGRA) result at baseline benefitted from greater protection, regardless of age (0·09 [0·05-0·17] in children younger than 5 years, 0·20 [0·15-0·28] in individuals aged 5-17 years, and 0·17 [0·13-0·22] in adults aged 18 years and older). The effectiveness of preventive treatment was greater in high-burden (0·31 [0·23-0·40]) versus low-burden (0·58 [0·47-0·72]) settings. The NNT ranged from 9 to 34 depending on age among participants with a positive TST or IGRA in both high-burden and low-burden settings; among all contacts (regardless of TST or IGRA test result), the NNT ranged from 29 to 43 in high-burden settings and 213 to 455 in low-burden settings.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that a risk-targeted strategy prioritising contacts with evidence of M tuberculosis infection might be indicated in low-burden settings, and a broad approach including all contacts should be considered in high-burden settings. Preventive treatment was similarly effective among contacts of all ages.

FUNDING

None.

Predicting stringent QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus conversions in contacts of tuberculosis patients

OBJECTIVES

To assess associations between disease severity in index TB patients and QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) results in contacts, and predictors for QFT-Plus conversion in contacts over 6-12 months.

METHODS

TB patients (n = 295) and the contacts (n = 1051) were enrolled during 2018-2021 with QFT-Plus performed at baseline and months 6 and 12. A strong CD8 response was defined as TB2 interferon gamma (IFN-γ) response minus TB1 >0.6 IU/ml and stringent conversion as change from QFT-plus negative to high-positive QFT-Plus (TB1 or TB2 IFN-γ responses >0.7 IU/ml).

RESULTS

Contacts with index TB patients with sputum smear >1+ was associated with positive QFT-Plus compared to those without (p < 0.001). Contacts with index TB patients with bilateral lung disease were more likely to have strong CD8 responses than those without (p = 0.038). QFT-Plus stringent conversion occurred in 9.7% of contacts over 6-12 months. A TB1 IFN-γ response ≥0.03 IU/ml combined with a TB2 ≥0.06 IU/ml was predictive of a 19-fold increased risk for QFT-Plus stringent conversion in contacts (odd ratio 19.565 [8.484-45.116], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Bacterial burden and bilateral lung disease of index TB patients were associated with positive QFT-Plus and strong CD8 responses in contacts. TB1 and TB2 IFN-γ responses were synergistically predictive of stringent conversion in contacts.

Latent Tuberculosis Infection and Associated Risk Factors among People Living with HIV and HIV-Uninfected Individuals in Lithuania

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV (PLHIV) with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are at increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) reactivation compared to the HIV-negative population. Lithuania belongs to the 18 high-priority TB countries in the European region. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of LTBI and LTBI-related risk factors between PLHIV and HIV-uninfected populations.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in three Lithuanian Infectious Diseases centres from August 2018 to May 2022 using the interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and tuberculin skin test (TST) in Vilnius, and IGRA only in Siauliai and Klaipeda. Cohen's kappa was used to assess IGRA and TST agreement. A structured questionnaire was completed by the study participants. LTBI-related risk factors were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

In total, 391 PLHIV and 443 HIV-uninfected individuals enrolled, with a median age of 41 (IQR 36-48) and 43 (IQR 36-50), consisting of 69.8% and 65.5% male, respectively. The prevalence of LTBI defined by positive IGRA and/or TST among PLHIV was higher compared to that in the HIV-uninfected population (20.5% vs. 15.3%; OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.02-2.03; p = 0.04). The concordance between IGRA and TST was fair: kappa = 0.23 (95% CI 0.09-0.34). In multivariable analyses, association with injecting drug use (IDU) (ORa 2.25, 95% CI 1.27-3.99, p = 0.01) and imprisonment (ORa 1.99, 95% CI 1.13-3.52, p = 0.02) in all participants, IDU (ORa 2.37, 95% CI 1.09-5.15; p = 0.029) in PLHIV and a history of contact with an active TB patient (ORa 3.33, 95% CI 1.53-7.24; p = 0.002) in HIV-uninfected individuals were significant associations evidenced by LTBI.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of LTBI among PLHIV in Lithuania is higher compared to that in the HIV-uninfected population and the European average. The association with IDU in PLHIV emphasizes the need for integrated HIV, TB and substance abuse treatment to provide patient-centred care.

Declining incidence rate of tuberculosis among close contacts in five years post-exposure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Individuals in close contact with active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients showed a high risk of recent infection and, once infected, higher risk of developing active TB in the following years post-exposure. But the peak time of active disease onset is unclear. This study aims to estimate post exposure TB incidence risk among close contacts to provide reference for clinical and public health strategies.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE for articles published until December 1, 2022. The incidence rates were quantitatively summarized by means of meta-analysis using the random-effect model.

RESULTS

Of the 5616 studies, 31 studies included in our analysis. For baseline close contacts results, the summarized prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection and active TB was found to be 46.30% (95% CI: 37.18%-55.41%) and 2.68% (95% CI: 2.02%-3.35%), respectively. During the follow-up, the 1-year, 2-year and 5-year cumulative incidence of TB in close contacts were 2.15% (95% CI: 1.51%-2.80%), 1.21% (95% CI: 0.93%-1.49%) and 1.11% (95% CI: 0.64%-1.58%), respectively. Individuals with a positive result of MTB infection testing at baseline showed significantly higher cumulative TB incidence as compared to those negatives (3.80% vs. 0.82%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with close contact to active pulmonary TB patients are bearing significant risk of developing active TB, particularly within the first-year post-exposure. Population with recent infections should be an important priority for active case finding and preventive intervention worldwide.

Factors associated with prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease among adolescents and adults exposed to rifampin-resistant tuberculosis in the household

BACKGROUND

Understanding factors associated with prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and prevalent TB disease in household contacts of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) may be useful for TB program staff conducting contact investigations.

METHODS

Using data from a cross-sectional study that enrolled index participants with rifampin-resistant pulmonary TB and their household contacts (HHCs), we evaluated HHCs age ≥15 years for factors associated with two outcomes: Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and TB disease. Among HHCs who were not already diagnosed with current active TB disease by the TB program, Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection was determined by interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). TB disease was adjudicated centrally. We fitted logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Seven hundred twelve HHCs age ≥15 years enrolled from 279 households in eight high-TB burden countries were a median age of 34 years, 63% female, 22% current smokers and 8% previous smokers, 8% HIV-positive, and 11% previously treated for TB. Of 686 with determinate IGRA results, 471 tested IGRA positive (prevalence 68.8% (95% Confidence Interval: 64.6%, 72.8%)). Multivariable modeling showed IGRA positivity was more common in HHCs aged 25-49 years; reporting prior TB treatment; reporting incarceration, substance use, and/or a period of daily alcohol use in the past 12 months; sharing a sleeping room or more evenings spent with the index participant; living with smokers; or living in a home of materials typical of low socioeconomic status. Forty-six (6.5% (95% Confidence Interval: 4.6%, 9.0%)) HHCs age ≥15 years had prevalent TB disease. Multivariable modeling showed higher prevalence of TB disease among HHCs aged ≥50 years; reporting current or previous smoking; reporting a period of daily alcohol use in the past 12 months; and reporting prior TB treatment.

CONCLUSION

We identified overlapping and distinct characteristics associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and TB disease that may be useful for those conducting household TB investigations.

Predictive performance of interferon-gamma release assays and the tuberculin skin test for incident tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background

Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy.

Methods

We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667.

Findings

We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST5/15 mm]) at 2.88 (95% CI 1.69-4.90). The pooled HR for QFT-GIT was higher than for TST at 4.15 (95% CI 1.97-8.75). The difference was large in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population (HR 10.38, 95% CI 4.17-25.87 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82-7.51 for TST5/15 mm) but much of this difference was driven by a single study (HR 5.13, 95% CI 3.58-7.35 for TST5/15 mm VS. 7.18, 95% CI 4.48-11.51 for QFT-GIT, when excluding the study, in which all 19 TB cases had positive QFT-GIT results). The comparative performance was similar in the higher burden countries (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.23-2.10 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 1.72, 95% CI 0.98-3.01 for TST5/15 mm). The predictive performance of both tests was higher in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population. In the lower TB incidence countries, the specificity of TST (76% for TST5/15 mm) and QFT-GIT (74%) for predicting active TB approached the minimum World Health Organization target (≥75%), but the sensitivity was below the target of ≥75% (63% for TST5/15 mm and 65% for QFT-GIT). The absolute differences in positive and negative predictive values between TST15 mm and QFT-GIT were small (positive predictive values 2.74% VS. 2.46%; negative predictive values 99.42% VS. 99.52% in low-incidence countries). Egger's test did not show evidence of publication bias (0.74 for TST15 mm and p = 0.68 for QFT-GIT).

Interpretation

IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results.

Funding

YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_00004/07].

Predictors of tuberculosis disease in smokers: a case-control study in northeastern Malaysia

Objective

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading infectious disease. However, many TB cases remain undetected and only present symptoms at a late stage of the infection. Therefore, targeted TB screening in high-risk populations, including smokers, is crucial. This study aimed to determine the predictors of TB disease among the smoker population in northeast Malaysia from 2019 to 2020.

Methods

A case-control study was conducted involving smokers aged 18 years and older from health clinics in Bachok Kelantan, Malaysia. Data were collected via face-to-face interviews or telephone calls from 159 participants, randomly selected from outpatient TB records. Simple and multiple logistic regression, using R software, were used to identify the determinants of TB.

Results

Most participants were male (59.1%) and had a secondary education (56.0%). Active smokers constituted 35.2% of the group, and the mean (SD) duration of exposure to smoking was 23.9 (16.47) and 18.4 (12.84) years for the case and control groups, respectively. Being an ex-smoker (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 6.17; 95% CI [1.55-28.32]; p = 0.013), weight loss (AOR 13.45; 95% CI [4.58-44.46]; p < 0.005), night sweats (AOR 63.84; 95% CI [8.99-1392.75]; p < 0.005) and duration of symptoms (AOR 1.02; 95% CI [1.01-1.04]; p = 0.022) were shown to be significant predictors for TB disease.

Conclusion

Four predictors of TB disease in the population of smokers were recognised in this study and should be prioritised for early TB screening and diagnosis. This may help increase TB detection, initiate prompt treatment and reduce complications among the group at risk for TB.

Development and Validation of the Tuberculosis Risk Score for Smokers (TBRSS)

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health issue worldwide. However, the effectiveness of TB screening programmes among smokers is still questionable. There is a need for a simple, reliable, and validated screening system for this risk population. This study aimed to develop and validate the tuberculosis risk score for smokers (TBRSS) in Kelantan, Malaysia. A case–control study was conducted on 159 patients (smokers with and without TB) between January and July 2020. Simple and multiple logistic regressions were applied to determine the variables to be included in the risk score. The cut-off points to determine a score indicating low or high risk for TB disease were obtained based on the receiver operating characteristics curve. Content validation was carried out through interviews with eight experts to measure each variable′s relevancy. The face validation was conducted among 20 health clinic staff. Seven variables were selected for inclusion in the risk score. The chosen cut-off point was 16 (out of 43), with 91% and 78% sensitivity and specificity, respectively. The scale-level content validity index was 0.83, while the face validity index scores for each element ranged between 0.85 and 1.00. The TBRSS can be considered a validated screening tool for use in screening TB disease risk among smokers, which potentially may lead to an increased detection of TB disease in the community.

Challenges in the screening and treatment of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis infection

Individuals in close contact with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients are subject to an elevated risk of infection, and may develop latent MDR-TB infection. Numerous studies have described latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) as a reservoir of new TB disease. The screening and treatment of latent MDR-TB infection are challenging. Hereby, we reviewed the epidemiology, current management and prevention approach of LTBI in MDR-TB close contacts, to provide additional information for future research direction and policy design formulation to reduce the LTBI reservoir.

Usability of a mobile health application in tuberculosis screening and compliance to perform chest x-ray examination among presumptive cases detected by the app in Myanmar (Preprint)

Background

In Myanmar, the use of a mobile app for tuberculosis (TB) screening and its operational effect on seeking TB health care have not been evaluated yet.

Objective

This study aims to report the usability of a simple mobile app to screen TB and comply with chest X-ray (CXR) examination of presumptive cases detected by the app.

Methods

A new “TB-screen” app was developed from a Google Sheet based on a previously published algorithm. The app calculates a TB risk propensity score from an individual’s sociodemographic characteristics and TB clinical history and suggests whether the individual should undergo a CXR. The screening program was launched in urban slum areas soon after the COVID-19 outbreak subsided. A standard questionnaire was used to assess the app’s usability rated by presumptive cases. Compliance to undergo CXR was confirmed by scanning the referral quick response (QR) code via the app.

Results

Raters were 453 presumptive cases detected by the app. The mean usability rating score was 4.1 out of 5. Compliance to undergo CXR examination was 71.1% (n=322). Active TB case detection among CXR compliances was 7.5% (n=24). One standard deviation (SD) increase in the app usability score was significantly associated with a 59% increase in the odds to comply with CXR (β=.464) after adjusting for other variables (P<.001).

Conclusions

This simple mobile app got a high usability score rated by 453 users. The mobile app usability score successfully predicted compliance to undergo CXR examination. Eventually, 24 (7.5%) of 322 users who were suspected of having TB by the mobile app were detected as active TB cases by CXR. The system should be upscaled for a large trial.

Clinical predictors of pulmonary tuberculosis among South African adults with HIV

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) clinical prediction rules rely on presence of symptoms, however many undiagnosed cases in the community are asymptomatic. This study aimed to explore the utility of clinical factors in predicting TB among people with HIV not seeking care.

METHODS

Baseline data were analysed from an observational cohort of ambulant adults with HIV in South Africa. Participants were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) sensitisation (interferon-γ release assay, IGRA) and microbiologically-confirmed prevalent pulmonary TB disease at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident TB through 15 months. Multivariable LASSO regression with post-selection inference was used to test associations with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease.

FINDINGS

Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 861 participants were enrolled; Among 851 participants included in the analysis, 94·5% were asymptomatic and 45·9% sensitised to Mtb. TB prevalence was 2·0% at baseline and incidence 2·3/100 person-years through 15 months follow-up. Study site was associated with baseline Mtb sensitisation (p < 0·001), prevalent (p < 0·001), and incident TB disease (p = 0·037). Independent of site, higher CD4 counts (per 50 cells/mm³, aOR 1·48, 95%CI 1·12-1·77, p = 0·006) were associated with increased IGRA positivity, and participants without TB disease (aOR 0·80, 95%CI 0·69-0·94, p = 0·006) had reduced IGRA positivity; no variables were independently associated with prevalent TB. Mixed ancestry (aHR 1·49, 95%CI 1·30->1000, p = 0·005) and antiretroviral initiation (aHR 1·48, 95%CI 1·01-929·93, p = 0·023) were independently associated with incident TB. Models incorporating clinical features alone performed poorly in diagnosing prevalent (AUC 0·65, 95%CI 0·44-0·85) or predicting progression to incident (0·67, 0·46-0·88) TB.

INTERPRETATION

CD4 count and antiretroviral initiation, proxies for immune status and HIV stage, were associated with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Inadequate performance of clinical prediction models may reflect predominantly subclinical disease diagnosed in this setting and unmeasured local site factors affecting transmission and progression.

FUNDING

The CORTIS-HR study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town.

Scaling up investigation and treatment of household contacts of tuberculosis patients in Brazil: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis

Background

In Brazil, investigation and treatment of tuberculosis infection (TBI) in households contacts (HHC) of TB patients is not a priority. We estimated the cost-effectiveness and budget-impact of scaling-up an enhanced HHC management in Brazil.

Methods

We conceptualized a cascade-of-care that captures how HHC of tuberculosis patients are investigated in Brazil (status quo) and two enhanced strategies for management of HHC focusing on: (1) only tuberculosis disease (TBD) detection and, (2) TBD and TBI detection and treatment. Effectiveness was the number of HHC diagnosed with TBD and completing TBI treatment. Proportions in the cascades-of-care were derived from a meta-analysis. Health-system costs (2019 US$) were based on literature and official data from Brazil. The impact of enhanced strategies was extrapolated using reported data from 2019.

Findings

With the status quo, 0 (95% uncertainty interval: 0-1) HHC are diagnosed with TBD and 2 (0-16) complete TBI treatment. With strategy(1), an additional 15 (3-45) HHC would be diagnosed with TBD at a cost of US$346 each. With strategy(2), 81 (19-226) additional HHC would complete TBI treatment at a cost of US$84 each. A combined strategy, implemented nationally to enhance TBD detection and TBI treatment would result in an additional 9,711 (845-28,693) TBD being detected, and 51,277 (12,028-143,495) more HHC completing TBI treatment each year, utilizing 10.9% and 11.6% of the annual national tuberculosis program budget, respectively.

Interpretation

Enhanced detection and treatment of TBD and TBI among HHC in Brazil can be achieved at a national level using current tools at reasonable cost.

Funding

None.

Protocol for the Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis in Nepal (ASCOT) pilot trial

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's End TB (tuberculosis) Strategy advocates social and economic support for TB-affected households but evidence from low-income settings is scarce. We will evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a locally-appropriate socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal. METHODS: We will conduct a pilot randomised-controlled trial with mixed-methods process evaluation in four TB-endemic, impoverished districts of Nepal: Pyuthan, Chitwan, Mahottari, and Morang. We will recruit 128 people with TB notified to the Nepal National TB Program (NTP) and 40 multisectoral stakeholders including NTP staff, civil-society members, policy-makers, and ASCOT (Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis) team members. People with TB will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to four study arms (n=32 each): control; social support; economic support; and combined social and economic (socioeconomic) support. Social support will be TB education and peer-led mutual-support TB Clubs providing TB education and stigma-reduction counselling. Economic support will be monthly unconditional cash transfers during TB treatment with expectations (not conditions) of meeting NTP goals. At 0, 2, and 6 months following TB treatment initiation, participants will be asked to complete a survey detailing the social determinants and consequences of TB and their feedback on ASCOT. Complementary process evaluation will use focus group discussions (FGD), key informant interviews (KII), and a workshop with multi-sectoral stakeholders to consider the challenges to ASCOT's implementation and scale-up. A sample of ~100 people with TB is recommended to estimate TB-related costs. Information power is estimated to be reached with approximately 25 FGD and 15 KII participants. CONCLUSIONS: The ASCOT pilot trial will both generate robust evidence on a locally-appropriate, socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal and inform a large-scale future ASCOT trial, which will evaluate the intervention's impact on catastrophic costs mitigation and TB outcomes. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN ( ISRCTN17025974).

Protocol for the Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis in Nepal (ASCOT) pilot trial

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's End TB (tuberculosis) Strategy advocates social and economic support for TB-affected households but evidence from low-income settings is scarce. We will evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a locally-appropriate socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal. METHODS: We will conduct a pilot randomised-controlled trial with mixed-methods process evaluation in four TB-endemic, impoverished districts of Nepal: Pyuthan, Chitwan, Mahottari, and Morang. We will recruit 128 people with TB notified to the Nepal National TB Program (NTP) and 40 multisectoral stakeholders including NTP staff, civil-society members, policy-makers, and ASCOT (Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis) team members. People with TB will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to four study arms (n=32 each): control; social support; economic support; and combined social and economic (socioeconomic) support. Social support will be TB education and peer-led mutual-support TB Clubs providing TB education and stigma-reduction counselling. Economic support will be monthly unconditional cash transfers during TB treatment with expectations (not conditions) of meeting NTP goals. At 0, 2, and 6 months following TB treatment initiation, participants will be asked to complete a survey detailing the social determinants and consequences of TB and their feedback on ASCOT. Complementary process evaluation will use focus group discussions (FGD), key informant interviews (KII), and a workshop with multi-sectoral stakeholders to consider the challenges to ASCOT's implementation and scale-up. A sample of ~100 people with TB is recommended to estimate TB-related costs. Information power is estimated to be reached with approximately 25 FGD and 15 KII participants. CONCLUSIONS: The ASCOT pilot trial will both generate robust evidence on a locally-appropriate, socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal and inform a large-scale future ASCOT trial, which will evaluate the intervention's impact on catastrophic costs mitigation and TB outcomes. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN ( ISRCTN17025974).

Protocol for the Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis in Nepal (ASCOT) pilot trial

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization's End TB (tuberculosis) Strategy advocates social and economic support for TB-affected households but evidence from low-income settings is scarce. We will evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of a locally-appropriate socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal. METHODS: We will conduct a pilot randomised-controlled trial with mixed-methods process evaluation in four TB-endemic, impoverished districts of Nepal: Pyuthan, Chitwan, Mahottari, and Morang. We will recruit 128 people with TB notified to the Nepal National TB Program (NTP) and 40 multisectoral stakeholders including NTP staff, civil-society members, policy-makers, and ASCOT (Addressing the Social Determinants and Consequences of Tuberculosis) team members. People with TB will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to four study arms (n=32 each): control; social support; economic support; and combined social and economic (socioeconomic) support. Social support will be TB education and peer-led mutual-support TB Clubs providing TB education and stigma-reduction counselling. Economic support will be monthly unconditional cash transfers during TB treatment with expectations (not conditions) of meeting NTP goals. At 0, 2, and 6 months following TB treatment initiation, participants will be asked to complete a survey detailing the social determinants and consequences of TB and their feedback on ASCOT. Complementary process evaluation will use focus group discussions (FGD), key informant interviews (KII), and a workshop with multi-sectoral stakeholders to consider the challenges to ASCOT's implementation and scale-up. A sample of ~100 people with TB is recommended to estimate TB-related costs. Information power is estimated to be reached with approximately 25 FGD and 15 KII participants. CONCLUSIONS: The ASCOT pilot trial will both generate robust evidence on a locally-appropriate, socioeconomic support intervention for TB-affected households in Nepal and inform a large-scale future ASCOT trial, which will evaluate the intervention's impact on catastrophic costs mitigation and TB outcomes. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN ( ISRCTN17025974).

The Relationship Between Socio-Demographic Factors and Tuberculosis Mortality in the Republic of Korea During 2008-2017

The Republic of Korea has a high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and TB-specific mortality rate. In 2019, it had the second highest TB-specific mortality among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Understanding the factors associated with TB-specific deaths may help eradicate the disease. Therefore, we aimed to identify the general characteristics associated with TB-specific mortality among Koreans. Using Causes of Death Statistics data from Statistics Korea, we assessed the year of death, sex, age, occupation, area of residence, marital status, and education level reported between 2008 and 2017. Patient characteristics associated with TB-specific deaths were analyzed using the Chi-squared test, while influencing factors of TB-specific mortality were analyzed using logistic regression analysis to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR). Female (AOR: 0.509, 95% CI: 0.493–0.526), those with a graduate degree or higher (AOR: 0.559, 95% CI: 0.474–0.660) had lower TB-specific mortality rates than those of their counterparts. Conversely, those aged ≥70 years (AOR: 1.239, 95% CI: 1.199–1.280), single (AOR: 1.355, 95% CI: 1.315–1.396), and skilled agricultural, forestry, and fishery workers (AOR: 1.441, 95% CI: 1.359–1.529) had higher TB-specific mortality rates than those of their counterparts. In conclusion, TB-specific mortality rates differed according to the characteristics of the deceased patients. In order to establish effective TB control, multisectoral action on broader determinants should be strengthened.

Effectiveness of Preventive Therapy for Persons Exposed at Home to Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis, Karachi, Pakistan

Fluoroquinolone-based preventive therapy reduced risk for tuberculosis disease by 65%.

In Karachi, Pakistan, a South Asian megacity with a high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and low HIV prevalence, we assessed the effectiveness of fluoroquinolone-based preventive therapy for drug-resistant (DR) TB exposure. During February 2016–March 2017, high-risk household contacts of DR TB patients began a 6-month course of preventive therapy with a fluoroquinolone-based, 2-drug regimen. We assessed effectiveness in this cohort by comparing the rate and risk for TB disease over 2 years to the rates and risks reported in the literature. Of 172 participants, TB occurred in 2 persons over 336 person-years of observation. TB disease incidence rate observed in the cohort was 6.0/1,000 person-years. The incidence rate ratio ranged from 0.29 (95% CI 0.04–1.3) to 0.50 (95% CI 0.06–2.8), with a pooled estimate of 0.35 (95% CI 0.14–0.87). Overall, fluoroquinolone-based preventive therapy for DR TB exposure reduced risk for TB disease by 65%.

Association of gene polymorphisms and environmental factors in tuberculosis patients and their household contacts

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is an important public health problem in China and environmental and genetic factors have an impact on its occurrence and development. We explored the relationship between environmental factors, genetic susceptibility genes and gene-environment interactions and the incidence of TB, as well as their high-risk combination, which can provide a scientific basis for prevention of the disease.

METHODS

The 242 individuals, which included 82 TB patients, 67 family genetically related patients and 93 healthy controls, all of whom were of the Han population in Guangdong Province. The basic information of subjects was collected, including general conditions, behaviour habits, family environmental factors and blood samples. Two single nucleotides with potential functions (interleukin-10 [IL-10] rs1800896, interferon-γ [IFN-γ] rs2430561) were screened by bioinformatics tools and identified by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism.

RESULTS

We found that gender, education, TB exposure history, fitness activities, residential areas and indoor hygiene conditions were all associated with the occurrence of TB. In the dominant model, AG+GG of IL-10 and AA of IFN-γ are high-risk genotypes. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) analysis of TB-prone families shows that a combination of male sex, IL-10 AA and AG genotypes and smoking history are elements of high risk for TB infection (prediction accuracy 62.45%, cross-validation consistency 10/10). The MDR analysis of the TB patients group and the healthy control group showed that the combination of low education level, history of TB exposure, and IFN-γ AA genotype represented a higher risk of TB infection (prediction accuracy 80.34%, cross-validation consistency 10/10).

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of TB in TB-prone families in the Han population of Guangdong Province is related to environmental factors as well as cytokines IL-10 and IFN-γ. We also found high-risk combinations of genes and environmental factors, providing clues for the timely detection of high-risk groups.

Latent tuberculosis infection prevalence in rural Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Understanding latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI) prevalence is crucial for the design of TB control strategies. There are no data on LTBI in rural Madagascar.

METHODS

Tuberculin skin tests were performed in 98 adults aged >15 y in five rural villages in the Ifanadiana district, Madagascar.

RESULTS

Of adults, 78.6% were positive for LTBI, ranging between 28.6% and 95.0% among villages. The majority (65.3%) showed an induration reaction of >15 mm.

CONCLUSIONS

LTBI prevalence is high in rural Madagascar. Long-term TB control strategies including LTBI testing and treatment must account for high and heterogeneous prevalence in remote, underdeveloped areas.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Pre-Treatment Delays, Detection, and Clinical Characteristics of Tuberculosis Patients in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Background: To contain the pandemic of COVID-19, China has implemented a series of public health interventions that impacted the tuberculosis control substantially, but these impacts may vary greatly depending on the severity of the local COVID-19 epidemic. The impact of COVID-19 on TB control in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is little known. Methods: Based on the national TB Information Management System (TBIMS), this study accessed the actual impact of COVID-19 on TB by comparing TB notifications, pre-treatment delays, and clinical characteristics of TB cases between 2020 COVID-19 period and 2017-2019 baseline. The data were divided into three periods based on the response started to fight against COVID-19 in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, including the control period (10 weeks before the pandemic), intensive period (10 weeks during the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region lockdown), and regular (10 additional weeks after Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reopen). Results: TB notification dropped sharply in the first week of the intensive period but took significantly longer to return to the previous level in 2020 compared with the 2017-2019 baseline. Totally, the TB notification rates decreased by more than 60% in the intensive period of COVID-19 compared with the average level of 2017-2019. The sputum smear-positive rate of TB patients diagnosed in intensive period of COVID-19 was significantly higher than that in the corresponding periods of 2017-2019 (P < 0.001). The rate of cavity on X-ray inspection of TB cases diagnosed in the intensive period of COVID-19 was significantly higher than that in period 2 of 2017-2019 (23.5 vs. 15.4%, P = 0.004). The patients' delay in the intensive period was significantly longer than that before the pandemic (P = 0.047). Conclusions: The TB notification in Ningxia was impacted dramatically by the pandemic of COVID-19. To compensate for the large numbers of missed diagnosis as well as delayed diagnosis during the intensive period of COVID-19, an urgent restoration of normal TB services, and further emphasis on enhanced active case finding and scale-up of household contact tracing and screening for TB-related symptoms or manifestation, will be essential.

Whole Blood Mycobacterial Growth Assays for Assessing Human Tuberculosis Susceptibility: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Whole blood mycobacterial growth assays (WBMGA) quantify mycobacterial growth in fresh blood samples and may have potential for assessing tuberculosis vaccines and identifying individuals at risk of tuberculosis. We evaluated the evidence for the underlying assumption that in vitro WBMGA results can predict in vivo tuberculosis susceptibility.

Methods

A systematic search was done for studies assessing associations between WBMGA results and tuberculosis susceptibility. Meta-analyses were performed for eligible studies by calculating population-weighted averages.

Results

No studies directly assessed whether WBMGA results predicted tuberculosis susceptibility. 15 studies assessed associations between WBMGA results and proven correlates of tuberculosis susceptibility, which we divided in two categories. Firstly, WBMGA associations with factors believed to reduce tuberculosis susceptibility were statistically significant in all eight studies of: BCG vaccination; vitamin D supplementation; altitude; and HIV-negativity/therapy. Secondly, WBMGA associations with probable correlates of tuberculosis susceptibility were statistically significant in three studies of tuberculosis disease, in a parasitism study and in two of the five studies of latent tuberculosis infection. Meta-analyses for associations between WBMGA results and BCG vaccination, tuberculosis infection, tuberculosis disease and HIV infection revealed consistent effects. There was considerable methodological heterogeneity.

Conclusions

The study results generally showed significant associations between WBMGA results and correlates of tuberculosis susceptibility. However, no study directly assessed whether WBMGA results predicted actual susceptibility to tuberculosis infection or disease. We recommend optimization and standardization of WBMGA methodology and prospective studies to determine whether WBMGA predict susceptibility to tuberculosis disease.

Quantified TB Exposure Can Predict Prevalent TB Disease in Child Contacts

In a matched case-control study in Pakistan, we found that quantified tuberculosis (TB) exposure using a 10-point score is associated with prevalent TB disease in pediatric household contacts. A 1 unit increase in TB exposure score increased the odds of TB disease by 44% (conditional odds ratio: 1.44, 95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.56). Collecting well-documented exposure history can help TB diagnosis in resource-limited settings.

Sensitivity and specificity of tuberculosis signs and symptoms screening and adjunct role of social pathology characteristics in predicting bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis in Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Globally, using tuberculosis signs and symptoms (TB-SS) as a screening tool has become less important due to its low sensitivity and specificity. We analyzed data from the Myanmar National Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence survey in 2010. The various TB screening models were developed to predict TB by using logistic regression analysis, and their performance on TB prediction was compared by the measures of overall performance, calibration and discrimination ability, and sensitivity and specificity to determine whether social pathology characteristics could be used as a TB screening tool.

RESULTS

Among 51,367 participants, 311 (0.6%) had bacteriologically confirmed TB, of which 37.2% were asymptomatic and 2% had a normal chest X-ray. Out of 32 various combinations of signs and symptoms, having any signs and symptoms gave the best sensitivity of 59.8% and specificity of 67.2%, but chest X-ray (CXR) alone gave the highest sensitivity (95.1%) and specificity (86.3%). The next best combination was cough only with a sensitivity of 24.4% and specificity of 85%. Other combinations had poor sensitivity (< 10%). Among various TB screening models, the overall performance R2 was higher in the combined models of social pathology and TB signs and symptoms as well as the social pathology model, compared to TB-SS models (> 10% versus < 3%), although all TB screening models were perfect to predict TB (Brier score = 0). The social pathology model shows a better calibration, more closer to 45° line of calibration plot with Hosmer-Lemeshow test p value = 0.787, than the combined models while it had a better discrimination ability in area under the curve, AUC = 80.4%, compared to TB-SS models with any signs and symptoms, AUC = 63.5% and with any cough, AUC = 57.1% (DeLong p value = 0.0001). Moreover, at the propensity score cutoff value ≥ 0.0053, the combined and social pathology models had sensitivity of ~ 80% and specificity of ~ 70%. The highest population attributable fraction to predict TB by social pathology characteristics was male gender (42.6%), age ≥ 55 years (31.0%), and underweight (30.4%).

CONCLUSION

Over one-third of bacteriologically confirmed TB was asymptomatic. The conventional TB-SS screening tool using any TB signs and symptoms had a lower sensitivity and specificity compared to CXR and social pathology screening tools. The social pathology characteristics as TB screening tool had good calibration and can improve the discrimination ability to predict TB than TB-SS screenings and should be encouraged.

Tuberculosis and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) from A Clinical Perspective: A Systematic Review

The aim of this review is to examine the effects of COVID-19 on Tuberculosis (TB) management and to highlight evidence of the extent of TB and COVID-19 co-infection. Current findings on TB and COVID-19 have been identified using six databases: Pubmed, Science Direct, Pubmed Central, MedXRiv, Wiley, and Google Scholar. This search in literature was conducted up to 8 May 2020. We included five studies that met the selection criteria. These selected studies have been performed in regions having various demographic characteristics including developed and developing countries, mainly China. The total number of participants in each study ranged from 24 to 203. The case fatality rate of patients with TB and COVID-19 co-infection was found to be high (6/49; 12.3 percent) while a combined diagnosis of TB and COVID-19 was found in 9/49 patients. This condition is linked to several complications, manifested as the need for ex novo oxygen supply, pneumothorax, and extreme hypoxia. Researches on BCG vaccination have shown that countries without vaccination policy are more likely to be seriously affected than those with BCG vaccination programs. COVID-19 infection in patients with TB or the lack of sufficient BCG vaccination may be associated with higher detrimental consequences, including mortality.

Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.

Two Clinical Prediction Tools to Improve Tuberculosis Contact Investigation

BACKGROUND

Efficient contact investigation strategies are needed for the early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) disease and treatment of latent TB infections.

METHODS

Between September 2009 and August 2012, we conducted a prospective cohort study in Lima, Peru, in which we enrolled and followed 14 044 household contacts of adults with pulmonary TB. We used information from a subset of this cohort to derive 2 clinical prediction tools that identify contacts of TB patients at elevated risk of progressing to active disease by training multivariable models that predict (1) coprevalent TB among all household contacts and (2) 1-year incident TB among adult contacts. We validated the models in a geographically distinct subcohort and compared the relative utilities of clinical decisions based on these tools to existing strategies.

RESULTS

In our cohort, 296 (2.1%) household contacts had coprevalent TB and 145 (1.9%) adult contacts developed incident TB within 1 year of index patient diagnosis. We predicted coprevalent disease using information that could be readily obtained at the time an index patient was diagnosed and predicted 1-year incident TB by including additional contact-specific characteristics. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for coprevalent TB and incident TB were 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], .83-.89]) and 0.72 (95% CI, .67-.77), respectively. These clinical tools give 5%-10% higher relative utilities than existing methods.

CONCLUSIONS

We present 2 tools that identify household contacts at high risk for TB disease based on reportable information from patient and contacts alone. The performance of these tools is comparable to biomarkers that are both more costly and less feasible than this approach.

A clinical score for identifying active tuberculosis while awaiting microbiological results: Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

In highly resource-limited settings, many clinics lack same-day microbiological testing for active tuberculosis (TB). In these contexts, risk of pretreatment loss to follow-up is high, and a simple, easy-to-use clinical risk score could be useful.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed data from adults tested for TB with Xpert MTB/RIF across 28 primary health clinics in rural South Africa (between July 2016 and January 2018). We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify characteristics associated with Xpert-confirmed TB and converted coefficients into a simple score. We assessed discrimination using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration using Cox linear logistic regression, and clinical utility using decision curves. We validated the score externally in a population of adults tested for TB across 4 primary health clinics in urban Uganda (between May 2018 and December 2019). Model development was repeated de novo with the Ugandan population to compare clinical scores. The South African and Ugandan cohorts included 701 and 106 individuals who tested positive for TB, respectively, and 686 and 281 randomly selected individuals who tested negative. Compared to the Ugandan cohort, the South African cohort was older (41% versus 19% aged 45 years or older), had similar breakdown of biological sex (48% versus 50% female), and had higher HIV prevalence (45% versus 34%). The final prediction model, scored from 0 to 10, included 6 characteristics: age, sex, HIV (2 points), diabetes, number of classical TB symptoms (cough, fever, weight loss, and night sweats; 1 point each), and >14-day symptom duration. Discrimination was moderate in the derivation (c-statistic = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.81 to 0.82) and validation (c-statistic = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.80) populations. A patient with 10% pretest probability of TB would have a posttest probability of 4% with a score of 3/10 versus 43% with a score of 7/10. The de novo Ugandan model contained similar characteristics and performed equally well. Our study may be subject to spectrum bias as we only included a random sample of people without TB from each cohort. This score is only meant to guide management while awaiting microbiological results, not intended as a community-based triage test (i.e., to identify individuals who should receive further testing).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that a simple clinical risk score reasonably distinguished individuals with and without TB among those submitting sputum for diagnosis. Subject to prospective validation, this score might be useful in settings with constrained diagnostic resources where concern for pretreatment loss to follow-up is high.

Preventing tuberculosis in children: A global health emergency

It is estimated that 20 million children are exposed to tuberculosis (TB) each year, making TB a global paediatric health emergency. TB preventative efforts have long been overlooked. With the view of achieving "TB elimination" in "our lifetime", this paper explores challenges and potential solutions in the TB prevention cascade, including identifying children who have been exposed to TB; detecting TB infection in these children; identifying those at highest risk of progressing to disease; implementing treatment of TB infection; and mobilizing multiple stakeholders support to successfully prevent TB.

R, Suryavanshi N, B. M. S, Cox SR, Selvaraju S, Gupte N, Mave V, Gupta A, Bollinger RC. Tuberculosis preventive treatment should be considered for all household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in India

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently changed its guidance for tuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) recommending TPT for all pulmonary TB (PTB) exposed household contacts (HHC) to prevent incident TB disease (iTBD), regardless of TB infection (TBI) status. However, this recommendation was conditional as the strength of evidence was not strong. We assessed risk factors for iTBD in recently-exposed adult and pediatric Indian HHC, to determine which HHC subgroups might benefit most from TPT. We prospectively enrolled consenting HHC of adult PTB patients in Pune and Chennai, India. They underwent clinical, microbiologic and radiologic screening for TB disease (TBD) and TBI, at enrollment, 4–6, 12 and 24 months. TBI testing was performed by tuberculin skin test (TST) and Quantiferon®- Gold-in-Tube (QGIT) assay. HHC without baseline TBD were followed for development of iTBI and iTBD. Using mixed-effect Poisson regression, we assessed baseline characteristics including TBI status, and incident TBI (iTBI) using several TST and/or QGIT cut-offs, as potential risk factors for iTBD. Of 1051 HHC enrolled, 42 (4%) with baseline TBD and 12 (1%) with no baseline TBI test available, were excluded. Of the remaining 997 HHC, 707 (71%) had baseline TBI (TST ≥ 5 mm or QGIT ≥ 0.35 IU/ml). Overall, 20 HHC (2%) developed iTBD (12 cases/1000 person-years, 95%CI: 8–19). HIV infection (aIRR = 29.08, 95% CI: 2.38–355.77, p = 0.01) and undernutrition (aIRR = 6.16, 95% CI: 1.89–20.03, p = 0.003) were independently associated with iTBD. iTBD was not associated with age, diabetes mellitus, smoking, alcohol, and baseline TBI, or iTBI, regardless of TST (≥ 5 mm, ≥ 10 mm, ≥ 6 mm increase) or QGIT (≥ 0.35 IU/ml, ≥ 0.7 IU/ml) cut-offs. Given the high overall risk of iTBD among recently exposed HHCs, and the lack of association between TBI status and iTBD, our findings support the new WHO recommendation to offer TPT to all HHC of PTB patients residing in a high TB burden country such as India, and do not suggest any benefit of TBI testing at baseline or during follow-up to risk stratify recently-exposed HHC for TPT.

COVID-19, tuberculosis and poverty: preventing a perfect storm

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is likely to be the defining global health crisis of our generation. As the United Nations Development Programme highlighted in their recent call to action, the impact of this pandemic will extend beyond the immediate medical consequences to have far-reaching and long-lasting social and economic impacts, threatening to disproportionately affect poorer people in poorer countries [1]. Income losses are anticipated to exceed USD 220 billion in developing countries, where many people live day-to-day without access to social protection, and food security is precarious [1]. Strikingly, a recent United Nations study suggested that the social and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic could increase the number of people living in poverty by as much as half a billion, with the majority of these newly poor people living in Africa, South-East Asia, and Central and South America [2].

The global health community must learn from COVID-19 and take action now on tuberculosis and its social determinants, potentially saving millions from a preventable and curable diseasehttps://bit.ly/2LLgLgA

Developing Feasible, Locally Appropriate Socioeconomic Support for TB-Affected Households in Nepal

Tuberculosis (TB), the leading single infectious diseases killer globally, is driven by poverty. Conversely, having TB worsens impoverishment. During TB illness, lost income and out-of-pocket costs can become “catastrophic”, leading patients to abandon treatment, develop drug-resistance, and die. WHO’s 2015 End TB Strategy recommends eliminating catastrophic costs and providing socioeconomic support for TB-affected people. However, there is negligible evidence to guide the design and implementation of such socioeconomic support, especially in low-income, TB-endemic countries. A national, multi-sectoral workshop was held in Kathmandu, Nepal, on the 11th and 12th September 2019, to develop a shortlist of feasible, locally appropriate socioeconomic support interventions for TB-affected households in Nepal, a low-income country with significant TB burden. The workshop brought together key stakeholders in Nepal including from the Ministry of Health and Population, Department of Health Services, Provincial Health Directorate, Health Offices, National TB Program (NTP); and TB/Leprosy Officers, healthcare workers, community health volunteers, TB-affected people, and external development partners (EDP). During the workshop, participants reviewed current Nepal NTP data and strategy, discussed the preliminary results of a mixed-methods study of the socioeconomic determinants and consequences of TB in Nepal, described existing and potential socioeconomic interventions for TB-affected households in Nepal, and selected the most promising interventions for future randomized controlled trial evaluations in Nepal. This report describes the activities, outcomes, and recommendations from the workshop.

A blood RNA transcript signature for TB exposure in household contacts

Background

Current tools for diagnosing latent TB infection (LTBI) detect immunological memory of past exposure but are unable to determine whether exposure is recent. We sought to identify a whole-blood transcriptome signature of recent TB exposure.

Methods

We studied household contacts of TB patients; healthy volunteers without recent history of TB exposure; and patients with active TB. We performed whole-blood RNA sequencing (in all), an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA; in contacts and healthy controls) and PET/MRI lung scans (in contacts only). We evaluated differentially-expressed genes in household contacts (log2 fold change ≥1 versus healthy controls; false-discovery rate < 0.05); compared these to differentially-expressed genes seen in the active TB group; and assessed the association of a composite gene expression score to independent exposure/treatment/immunological variables.

Results

There were 186 differentially-expressed genes in household contacts (n = 26, age 22–66, 46% male) compared with healthy controls (n = 5, age 29–38, 100% male). Of these genes, 141 (76%) were also differentially expressed in active TB (n = 14, age 27–69, 71% male). The exposure signature included genes from inflammatory response, type I interferon signalling and neutrophil-mediated immunity pathways; and genes such as BATF2 and SCARF1 known to be associated with incipient TB. The composite gene-expression score was higher in IGRA-positive contacts (P = 0.04) but not related to time from exposure, isoniazid prophylaxis, or abnormalities on PET/MRI (all P > 0.19).

Conclusions

Transcriptomics can detect TB exposure and, with further development, may be an approach of value for epidemiological research and targeting public health interventions.

Risk-benefit analysis of tuberculosis infection testing for household contact management in high-burden countries: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Preventive therapy for tuberculosis reduces the risk of disease in people who have been infected but who are not sick. Countries with a high burden of tuberculosis that are expanding preventive therapy use must decide how tuberculosis infection testing should be used for risk stratification among household contacts of patients with tuberculosis.

METHODS

We modelled the risks of tuberculosis disease and severe adverse events, comparing the following two preventive therapy strategies: preventive therapy for all household contacts, or preventive therapy for only household contacts with a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) result. We used data from clinical trials and literature on tuberculosis natural history to model outcomes, assuming different preventive therapy regimens, ages, and TST positivity prevalence.

FINDINGS

Assuming 25% prevalence of TST positivity among 1000 household contacts aged 0-17 years, a treat-all approach with isoniazid and rifapentine compared with a treat-TST-only approach led to 13 fewer incident tuberculosis cases (IQR -5 to -18) and four additional severe adverse events (2 to 6). With rifampicin, the difference was 11 fewer incident tuberculosis cases (-3 to -17) and two additional severe adverse events (1 to 3). For adults, a treat-all approach led to fewer incident tuberculosis cases, and additional adverse events increased with age. Assuming 25% prevalence of TST positivity among adult contacts, a treat-all approach would lead to around two fewer tuberculosis cases per 1000 contacts for all regimens; the number of additional severe adverse events ranged from seven (IQR 5 to 8) for 18 to 34-year-olds treated with rifampicin to 63 (50 to 74) for people older than 64 years treated with isoniazid and rifapentine. A rifampicin-only regimen was associated with the fewest additional severe adverse events (seven [IQR 5 to 8] per 1000 adults aged 18-34 years and 35-64 years, and 17 [9 to 23] per 1000 adults older than 64 years).

INTERPRETATION

Based on the available data, giving preventive therapy to all household contacts would probably reduce the incidence of tuberculosis cases in high-burden settings. Adverse events could be minimised by using non-isoniazid regimens and, in adults older than 18 years, focusing treatment on individuals with a positive infection test.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and UK Department for International Development.

Demanding an end to tuberculosis: treatment of tuberculosis infection among persons living with and without HIV

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

More than two billion people are infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and few of them are ever offered therapy in spite of such treatment being associated with reduced rates of morbidity and mortality. This article reviews the current recommendations on the diagnosis and treatment of TB infection (or what is commonly referred to as 'prophylaxis' or 'preventive therapy' of latent TB) and discusses barriers to implementation that have led to low demand for this life-saving therapeutic intervention.

RECENT FINDINGS

Treatment of infection for both TB and drug-resistant TB is well tolerated and effective, and several new, shorter regimens - including rfiapenitine-based regimens of 1 month and 12 weeks duration - have been shown to be effective. Not all persons infected with TB go on to develop disease and the risk is the highest in the first 2 years after infection. Given this, additional work is needed to better identify those at the highest risk of developing active TB.

SUMMARY

Practitioners should offer newer, shorter regimens to persons who are infected with TB and at high risk of developing disease, including people living with HIV and household contacts of people living with TB who are age 5 years and under. This includes individuals who have been exposed to drug-resistant forms of disease. Socioeconomic risk factors may play a key role in the development of TB disease and should also be addressed.

Identification of subclinical tuberculosis in household contacts using exposure scores and contact investigations

Background

The goal of tuberculosis elimination put forward in the End TB Strategy prioritizes diagnosis and treatment of incipient and subclinical TB, recently defined by key stakeholders as “asymptomatic, early pre-clinical disease during which pathology evolves”. Regarded as indicative of a high risk of TB progression, considerable efforts have been made to identify these cases through exploration of biomarkers. The present study aimed to evaluate simple scoring systems for TB exposure as screening tools for subclinical TB, the only identifiable of the incipient and subclinical disease states, in a contact investigation (CI) setting of low HIV-prevalence.

Methods

Nested within a large prospective study in household contacts (HHCs) of smear positive pulmonary TB cases in South-India conducted 2010–2012, we assessed 1) the association between the Tuberculosis Contact Score (TCS) and the Infectivity Score, with established tools for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, corrected for established TB risk factors, and 2) the capability of the TB exposure scores to identify subclinical TB defined by Mtb-culture positivity in sputum or gastric aspirate (subjects < 5 years) specimen.

Results

Of 525 HHCs, 29 were Mtb-culture positive and 96.6% of these asymptomatic. The TCS and the Infectivity Score associated with positive Tuberculin Skin Test and QuantiFeron TB-Gold In-tube assay (QFT) results in multivariate analyses (TCS: OR_TST 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.33; OR_QFT 1.33 95% CI: 1.16, 1.51. Infectivity Score: OR_TST 1.39, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.76; OR_QFT 1.41 95% CI: 1.16, 1.71). The Infectivity Score showed a moderate capability to identify subclinical TB (AUC of 0.61, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.70).

Conclusions

Although our results did not identify an easily applicable screening tool for subclinical TB, the present study indicates that focusing on TB-related symptoms in CI settings may be of limited value for early identification of HHCs with high risk for TB progression.

Contacts of underserved tuberculosis patients have higher odds of TB disease in North West England: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between patients' social risk factors and the risk of tuberculous infection and TB disease among their contacts in England.

DESIGN

This was a cohort study of all TB cases from North West England diagnosed between 27 March 2012 and 28 June 2016. The social risk factors of TB cases were evaluated to estimate their need for enhanced case management (ECM), from 0 (standard of care) to 3 (intensive social support).

RESULTS

A total of 2139 cases and their 10 019 contacts met the eligibility criteria. Being a contact of a patient with smear-positive TB with high ECM or being of Black Caribbean ethnicity was independently associated with greater odds of active TB disease (smear-positive vs. smear-negative, OR 5.3, 95%CI 3.2-8.7; ECM-3 vs. ECM-0, OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.01-5.0; Black Caribbean vs. White, OR 7.4, 95%CI 2.1-25). Being a contact of a patient with smear-positive TB or of Black Caribbean ethnicity was also independently associated with greater odds of tuberculous infection (smear-positive vs. smear-negative, OR 5.3, 95%CI 3.8-7.3; and Black Caribbean vs. White, OR 6.7, 95%CI 2.0-25).

CONCLUSIONS

The social complexity and ethnicity of patients were associated with tuberculous infection and TB disease in their contacts.

A household-level score to predict the risk of tuberculosis among contacts of patients with tuberculosis: a derivation and external validation prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of social protection and biomedical interventions for tuberculosis-affected households might be improved by risk stratification. We therefore derived and externally validated a household-level risk score to predict tuberculosis among contacts of patients with tuberculosis.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we recruited tuberculosis-affected households from 15 desert shanty towns in Ventanilla and 17 urban communities in Callao, Lima, Peru. Tuberculosis-affected households included index patients with a new diagnosis of tuberculosis and their contacts who reported being in the same house as the index patient for more than 6 h per week in the 2 weeks preceding index patient diagnosis. Tuberculosis-affected households were not included if the index patient had no eligible contacts or lived alone. We followed contacts until 2018 and defined household tuberculosis, the primary outcome, as any contact having any form of tuberculosis within 3 years. We used logistic regression to identify characteristics of index patients, contacts, and households that were predictive of household tuberculosis, and used these to derive and externally validate a household-level score.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 12, 2007, and Dec 31, 2015, 16 505 contacts from 3 301 households in Ventanilla were included in a derivation cohort. During the 3-year follow-up, tuberculosis occurred in contacts of index patients in 430 (13%, 95% CI 12-14) households. Index patient predictors were pulmonary tuberculosis and sputum smear grade, age, and the maximum number of hours any contact had spent with the index patient while they had any cough. Household predictors were drug use, schooling of the female head of a household, and lower food spending. Contact predictors were if any of the contacts were children, number of lower-weight (body-mass index [BMI] <20·0 kg/m2) adult contacts, number of normal-weight (BMI 20·0-24·9 kg/m2) adult contacts, and number of past or present household members who previously had tuberculosis. In this derivation cohort, the score c statistic was 0·77 and the risk of household tuberculosis in the highest scoring quintile was 31% (95% CI 25-38; 65 of 211) versus 2% (95% CI 0-4; four of 231) in the lowest scoring quintile. We externally validated the risk score in a cohort of 4248 contacts from 924 households in Callao recruited between April 23, 2014, and Dec 31, 2015. During follow-up, tuberculosis occurred in contacts of index patients in 120 (13%, 95% CI 11-15) households. The score c statistic in this cohort was 0·75 and the risk of household tuberculosis in the highest scoring quintile was 28% (95% CI 21-36; 43 of 154) versus 1% (95% CI 0-5; two of 148) in the lowest scoring quintile. The highest-scoring third of households captured around 70% of all tuberculosis among contacts. A simplified risk score including only five variables performed similarly, with only a small reduction in performance.

INTERPRETATION

This externally validated score will enable comprehensive biosocial, household-level interventions to be targeted to tuberculosis-affected households that are most likely to benefit.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care, Department for International Development, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Innovation for Health and Development.

Tuberculosis: a focused review for the emergency medicine clinician

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) is a common disease worldwide, affecting nearly one-third of the world's population. While TB has decreased in frequency in the United States, it remains an important infection to diagnose and treat.

OBJECTIVE

This narrative review discusses the evaluation and management of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on those factors most relevant for the emergency clinician.

DISCUSSION

TB is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis and is highly communicable through aerosolized particles. A minority of patients will develop symptomatic, primary disease. Most patients will overcome the initial infection or develop a latent infection, which can reactivate. Immunocompromised states increase the risk of primary and reactivation TB. Symptoms include fever, prolonged cough, weight loss, and hemoptysis. Initial diagnosis often includes a chest X-ray, followed by serial sputum cultures. If the patient has a normal immune system and a normal X-ray, active TB can be excluded. Newer tests, including nucleic acid amplification testing, can rapidly diagnose active TB with high sensitivity. Treatment for primary and reactivation TB differs from latent TB. Extrapulmonary forms can occur in a significant proportion of patients and involve a range of different organ systems. Patients with human immunodeficiency virus are high-risk and require specific considerations.

CONCLUSIONS

TB is a disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The emergency clinician must consider TB in the appropriate setting, based on history and examination. Accurate diagnosis and rapid therapy can improve patient outcomes and reduce the spread of this communicable disease.

Clinical predictors of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Mexico

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) remains a major global health problem. Early treatment of TB is critical; in the absence of rapid- susceptibility testing, the empiric selection of drugs should be guided by clinical data. This study aimed to determine the clinical predictors of DR-TB. From September 2010 to August 2017, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were collected from 144 patients with tuberculosis at the Hospital Civil de Guadalajara, Mexico. Isolates were subjected to drug-susceptibility testing. Clinical predictors of DR-TB were determined using univariate and multivariate analysis. Any drug, isoniazid, and rifampin resistance rates were 47.7, 23.0, and 11.6%, respectively. The visualization of cavities and nodules through either chest radiography or computed tomography were independent predictors of DR-TB. In conclusion, early detection of DR-TB in this population could be based on multiple cavities being observed using chest imaging. This study’s results can be applied to future patients with TB in our community to optimize the DR-TB diagnostic process.

T-SPOT®.TB test and clinical risk scoring for diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection among Thai healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

Screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is important to identify healthcare workers (HCWs) benefiting from preventive therapy. Interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) are sensitive and specific tests for LTBI diagnosis. However, in settings where IGRAs are not available, clinical risk assessment may be used as an alternative to diagnose LTBI.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among HCWs of a tertiary-care university hospital in Thailand. All HCWs underwent T-SPOT®.TB test (T-SPOT) and assessment of LTBI clinical risks. Clinical risks associated with T-SPOT positivity were determined by multivariable logistic regression analysis and were given scores accordingly. The performance of the clinical risk scoring was evaluated in comparison to T-SPOT.

RESULTS

Among 140 enrolled HCWs, 125 (89%) were females, the median age was 27 years and 23 (16%) had T-SPOT positivity. Independent factors associated with T-SPOT positivity were age ≥30 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.95; P = 0.002), working duration ≥60 months (aOR 3.75, P = 0.004) and frequency of TB contact ≥6 times (aOR 8.83, P = 0.005). The study's clinical risk scoring had the area under the curve by receiver operating curve analysis of 0.76 (P < 0.001) using T-SPOT positivity as a reference standard. The score of ≥3 had the best performance in diagnosing LTBI with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 70%, 71%, 32% and 92%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this setting where LTBI was prevalent among HCWs but IGRAs are not widely available, the clinical risk scoring may be used as an alternative to diagnose LTBI in HCWs.

Active and passive case-finding in tuberculosis-affected households in Peru: a 10-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Active case-finding among contacts of patients with tuberculosis is a global health priority, but the effects of active versus passive case-finding are poorly characterised. We assessed the contribution of active versus passive case-finding to tuberculosis detection among contacts and compared sex and disease characteristics between contacts diagnosed through these strategies.

METHODS

In shanty towns in Callao, Peru, we identified index patients with tuberculosis and followed up contacts aged 15 years or older for tuberculosis. All patients and contacts were offered free programmatic active case-finding entailing sputum smear microscopy and clinical assessment. Additionally, all contacts were offered intensified active case-finding with sputum smear and culture testing monthly for 6 months and then once every 4 years. Passive case-finding at local health facilities was ongoing throughout follow-up.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 23, 2002, and May 26, 2006, we identified 2666 contacts, who were followed up until March 1, 2016. Median follow-up was 10·0 years (IQR 7·5-11·0). 232 (9%) of 2666 contacts were diagnosed with tuberculosis. The 2-year cumulative risk of tuberculosis was 4·6% (95% CI 3·5-5·5), and overall incidence was 0·98 cases (95% CI 0·86-1·10) per 100 person-years. 53 (23%) of 232 contacts with tuberculosis were diagnosed through active case-finding and 179 (77%) were identified through passive case-finding. During the first 6 months of the study, 23 (45%) of 51 contacts were diagnosed through active case-finding and 28 (55%) were identified through passive case-finding. Contacts diagnosed through active versus passive case-finding were more frequently female (36 [68%] of 53 vs 85 [47%] of 179; p=0·009), had a symptom duration of less than 15 days (nine [25%] of 36 vs ten [8%] of 127; p=0·03), and were more likely to be sputum smear-negative (33 [62%] of 53 vs 62 [35%] of 179; p=0·0003).

INTERPRETATION

Although active case-finding made an important contribution to tuberculosis detection among contacts, passive case-finding detected most of the tuberculosis burden. Compared with passive case-finding, active case-finding was equitable, helped to diagnose tuberculosis earlier and usually before a positive result on sputum smear microscopy, and showed a high burden of undetected tuberculosis among women.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development Civil Society Challenge Fund, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College National Institutes of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Sir Halley Stewart Trust, WHO, TB REACH, and IFHAD: Innovation for Health and Development.

Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis remains the leading cause of death from an infectious disease among adults worldwide, with more than 10 million people becoming newly sick from tuberculosis each year. Advances in diagnosis, including the use of rapid molecular testing and whole-genome sequencing in both sputum and non-sputum samples, could change this situation. Although little has changed in the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis, data on increased efficacy with new and repurposed drugs have led WHO to recommend all-oral therapy for drug-resistant tuberculosis for the first time ever in 2018. Studies have shown that shorter latent tuberculosis prevention regimens containing rifampicin or rifapentine are as effective as longer, isoniazid-based regimens, and there is a promising vaccine candidate to prevent the progression of infection to the disease. But new tools alone are not sufficient. Advances must be made in providing high-quality, people-centred care for tuberculosis. Renewed political will, coupled with improved access to quality care, could relegate the morbidity, mortality, and stigma long associated with tuberculosis, to the past.

Risk score for predicting mortality including urine lipoarabinomannan detection in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: Derivation and external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of and mortality from HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB) in hospital inpatients in Africa remains unacceptably high. Currently, there is a lack of tools to identify those at high risk of early mortality who may benefit from adjunctive interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical risk score to predict mortality in high-burden, low-resource settings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A cohort of HIV-positive adults with laboratory-confirmed TB from the STAMP TB screening trial (Malawi and South Africa) was used to derive a clinical risk score using multivariable predictive modelling, considering factors at hospital admission (including urine lipoarabinomannan [LAM] detection) thought to be associated with 2-month mortality. Performance was evaluated internally and then externally validated using independent cohorts from 2 other studies (LAM-RCT and a Médecins Sans Frontières [MSF] cohort) from South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Kenya. The derivation cohort included 315 patients enrolled from October 2015 and September 2017. Their median age was 36 years (IQR 30-43), 45.4% were female, median CD4 cell count at admission was 76 cells/μl (IQR 23-206), and 80.2% (210/262) of those who knew they were HIV-positive at hospital admission were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Two-month mortality was 30% (94/315), and mortality was associated with the following factors included in the score: age 55 years or older, male sex, being ART experienced, having severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 80 g/l), being unable to walk unaided, and having a positive urinary Determine TB LAM Ag test (Alere). The score identified patients with a 46.4% (95% CI 37.8%-55.2%) mortality risk in the high-risk group compared to 12.5% (95% CI 5.7%-25.4%) in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). The odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-15.2) in high-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (p < 0.001). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.63-0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, p = 0.78) were good in the derivation cohort, and similar in the external validation cohort (complete cases n = 372, c-statistic 0.68 [95% CI 0.61-0.74]). The validation cohort included 644 patients between January 2013 and August 2015. Median age was 36 years, 48.9% were female, and median CD4 count at admission was 61 (IQR 21-145). OR for mortality was 5.3 (95% CI 2.2-9.5) for high compared to low-risk patients (complete cases n = 372, p < 0.001). The score also predicted patients at higher risk of death both pre- and post-discharge. A simplified score (any 3 or more of the predictors) performed equally well. The main limitations of the scores were their imperfect accuracy, the need for access to urine LAM testing, modest study size, and not measuring all potential predictors of mortality (e.g., tuberculosis drug resistance).

CONCLUSIONS

This risk score is capable of identifying patients who could benefit from enhanced clinical care, follow-up, and/or adjunctive interventions, although further prospective validation studies are necessary. Given the scale of HIV/TB morbidity and mortality in African hospitals, better prognostic tools along with interventions could contribute towards global targets to reduce tuberculosis mortality.