Comparing indicators of disease severity among patients presenting to hospital for urinary tract infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients may have delayed seeking healthcare for urinary tract infections (UTIs). This could have resulted in more severe presentation to hospital and different antibiotic usage.

Objectives

We explored evidence for such changes through existing national indicators of prescribing, and routine clinical data collected in the electronic health record (EHR).

Methods

We carried out a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting to two UK hospitals for UTIs, comparing two indicators of disease severity on admission before and during the pandemic: intravenous (IV) antibiotic use, and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). We developed regression models to estimate the effect of the pandemic on each outcome, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation.

Results

During the pandemic, patients were less likely to present to hospital for UTI with NEWS2 of 0 or 1 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-0.85] compared with before, more likely to present with score 2 (aOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.18-1.94), whereas the likelihood of presenting with a NEWS2 of >2 remained the same (aOR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.87-1.29). We did not find evidence that this limited increase in disease severity resulted in changes to IV antibiotic use on admission (adjusted risk ratio: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.91-1.15).

Conclusions

There may have been a small increase in disease severity at hospital presentation for UTI during the pandemic, which can be detected using routine data and not through national indicators of prescribing. Further research is required to validate these findings and understand whether routine data could support a more nuanced understanding of local antimicrobial prescribing practices.

Tobacco smoking clusters in households affected by tuberculosis in an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys: Time for household-wide interventions?

Tuberculosis (TB) and non-communicable diseases (NCD) share predisposing risk factors. TB-associated NCD might cluster within households affected with TB requiring shared prevention and care strategies. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of national TB prevalence surveys to determine whether NCD cluster in members of households with TB. We identified eligible surveys that reported at least one NCD or NCD risk factor through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and searching in Medline and Embase from 1 January 2000 to 10 August 2021, which was updated on 23 March 2023. We compared the prevalence of NCD and their risk factors between people who do not have TB living in households with at least one person with TB (members of households with TB), and members of households without TB. We included 16 surveys (n = 740,815) from Asia and Africa. In a multivariable model adjusted for age and gender, the odds of smoking was higher among members of households with TB (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11-1.38), compared with members of households without TB. The analysis did not find a significant difference in the prevalence of alcohol drinking, diabetes, hypertension, or BMI between members of households with and without TB. Studies evaluating household-wide interventions for smoking to reduce its dual impact on TB and NCD may be warranted. Systematically screening for NCD using objective diagnostic methods is needed to understand the actual burden of NCD and inform comprehensive interventions.

Exploring the association between unintended pregnancies and unmet contraceptive needs among Ugandan women of reproductive age: an analysis of the 2016 Uganda demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Unintended pregnancy and unmet contraceptive needs pose significant public health challenges, particularly in developing nations, where they contribute to maternal health risks. While previous research has explored determinants of unintended pregnancies, there remains a gap in understanding the association between unplanned pregnancies and unmet contraceptive needs among Ugandan women of reproductive age. This study aimed to assess unmet contraceptive needs and their correlation with unintended pregnancies and other factors in Uganda, utilizing a nationally representative sample.

METHODS

Data was extracted from the 2016 Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS), a cross-sectional survey conducted in the latter half of 2016. The study encompassed 18,506 women aged 15-49 with a history of at least one prior pregnancy. The primary outcome variable was the planning status of the most recent pregnancy, while the principal independent variable was unmet contraceptive need. Additional variables were controlled in the analysis. Data analysis was performed using STATA version 17, involving descriptive analysis, cross-tabulation, chi-square testing, and logistic regression. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

A substantial proportion of women reported unintended pregnancies (44.5%), with approximately 21.09% experiencing an unmet need for contraception. In the adjusted model, women with unmet contraceptive needs had 3.97 times higher odds of unintended pregnancy (95% CI = 3.61-4.37) compared to those with met contraceptive needs. Significant factors linked to unintended pregnancies included women's age, place of residence, household wealth status, decision-making authority regarding contraceptive use, educational attainment, husband's occupation, and educational level.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that both the rate of unintended pregnancies and unmet contraceptive needs in Uganda exceeded the global average, warranting urgent policy attention. Addressing unmet contraceptive needs emerges as a potential strategy to curtail unintended pregnancies. Further qualitative research may be necessary to elucidate the sociocultural and behavioral determinants of unwanted pregnancies, facilitating context-specific interventions.

What type of cluster randomized trial for which setting?

The cluster randomized trial allows a randomized evaluation when it is either not possible to randomize the individual or randomizing individuals would put the trial at high risk of contamination across treatment arms. There are many variations of the cluster randomized design, including the parallel design with or without baseline measures, the cluster randomized cross-over design, the stepped-wedge cluster randomized design, and more recently-developed variants such as the batched stepped-wedge design and the staircase design. Once it has been clearly established that there is a need for cluster randomization, one ever important question is which form the cluster design should take. If a design in which time is split into multiple trial periods is to be adopted (e.g. as in a stepped-wedge), researchers must decide whether the same participants should be measured in multiple trial periods (cohort sampling); or if different participants should be measured in each period (continual recruitment or cross-sectional sampling). Here we outline the different possible options and weigh up the pros and cons of the different design choices, which revolve around statistical efficiency, study logistics and the assumptions required.

How should a cluster randomized trial be analyzed?

In cluster randomized trials, individuals from the same cluster tend to have more similar outcomes than individuals from different clusters. This correlation must be taken into account in the analysis of every cluster trial to avoid incorrect inferences. In this paper, we describe the principles guiding the analysis of cluster trials including how to correctly account for intra-cluster correlations as well as how to analyze more advanced designs such as stepped-wedge and cluster cross-over trials. We then describe how to handle specific issues such as small sample sizes and missing data.

Built Environment and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities: Cross-Sectional Survey and Data Linkage

OBJECTIVES

To describe the built environment in long-term care facilities (LTCF) and its association with introduction and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey with linkage to routine surveillance data.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

LTCFs in England caring for adults ≥65 years old, participating in the VIVALDI study (ISRCTN14447421) were eligible. Data were included from residents and staff.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey of the LTCF built environment with linkage to routinely collected asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing and vaccination data between September 1, 2020, and March 31, 2022. We used individual and LTCF level Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models to identify risk factors for 4 outcomes: incidence rate of resident infections and outbreaks, outbreak size, and duration. We considered interactions with variant transmissibility (pre vs post Omicron dominance).

RESULTS

A total of 134 of 151 (88.7%) LTCFs participated in the survey, contributing data for 13,010 residents and 17,766 staff. After adjustment and stratification, outbreak incidence (measuring infection introduction) was only associated with SARS-CoV-2 incidence in the community [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for high vs low incidence, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.85-4.36]. Characteristics of the built environment were associated with transmission outcomes and differed by variant transmissibility. For resident infection incidence, factors included number of storeys (0.64; 0.43-0.97) and bedrooms (1.04; 1.02-1.06), and purpose-built vs converted buildings (1.99; 1.08-3.69). Air quality was associated with outbreak size (dry vs just right 1.46; 1.00-2.13). Funding model (0.99; 0.99-1.00), crowding (0.98; 0.96-0.99), and bedroom temperature (1.15; 1.01-1.32) were associated with outbreak duration.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

We describe previously undocumented diversity in LTCF built environments. LTCFs have limited opportunities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 introduction, which was only driven by community incidence. However, adjusting the built environment, for example by isolating infected residents or improving airflow, may reduce transmission, although data quality was limited by subjectivity. Identifying LTCF built environment modifications that prevent infection transmission should be a research priority.

COVID-19-related mortality and hospital admissions in the VIVALDI study cohort: October 2020 to March 2023

BACKGROUND

Long-term-care facilities (LTCFs) were heavily affected by COVID-19 early in the pandemic, but the impact of the virus has reduced over time with vaccination campaigns and build-up of immunity from prior infection.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the mortality and hospital admissions associated with SARS-CoV-2 in LTCFs in England over the course of the VIVALDI study, from October 2020 to March 2023.

METHODS

We included residents aged ≥65 years from participating LTCFs who had available follow-up time within the analysis period. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) of COVID-19-linked mortality and hospital admissions per calendar quarter, along with infection fatality ratios (IFRs, within 28 days) and infection hospitalization ratios (IHRs, within 14 days) following positive SARS-CoV-2 test.

RESULTS

A total of 26,286 residents were included, with at least one positive test for SARS-CoV-2 in 8513 (32.4%). The IR of COVID-19-related mortality peaked in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021 at 0.47 per 1000 person-days (1 kpd) (around a third of all deaths), in comparison with 0.10 per 1 kpd for Q1 2023 which had a similar IR of SARS-CoV-2 infections. There was a fall in observed IFR for SARS-CoV-2 infections from 24.9% to 6.7% between these periods, with a fall in IHR from 12.1% to 8.8%. The population had high overall IRs for mortality for each quarter evaluated, corresponding to annual mortality probability of 28.8-41.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Standardized real-time monitoring of hospitalization and mortality following infection in LTCFs could inform policy on the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent transmission.

Informative cluster size in cluster-randomised trials: A case study from the TRIGGER trial

BACKGROUND

Recent work has shown that cluster-randomised trials can estimate two distinct estimands: the participant-average and cluster-average treatment effects. These can differ when participant outcomes or the treatment effect depends on the cluster size (termed informative cluster size). In this case, estimators that target one estimand (such as the analysis of unweighted cluster-level summaries, which targets the cluster-average effect) may be biased for the other. Furthermore, commonly used estimators such as mixed-effects models or generalised estimating equations with an exchangeable correlation structure can be biased for both estimands. However, there has been little empirical research into whether informative cluster size is likely to occur in practice.

METHOD

We re-analysed a cluster-randomised trial comparing two different thresholds for red blood cell transfusion in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding to explore whether estimates for the participant- and cluster-average effects differed, to provide empirical evidence for whether informative cluster size may be present. For each outcome, we first estimated a participant-average effect using independence estimating equations, which are unbiased under informative cluster size. We then compared this to two further methods: (1) a cluster-average effect estimated using either weighted independence estimating equations or unweighted cluster-level summaries, and (2) estimates from a mixed-effects model or generalised estimating equations with an exchangeable correlation structure. We then performed a small simulation study to evaluate whether observed differences between cluster- and participant-average estimates were likely to occur even if no informative cluster size was present.

RESULTS

For most outcomes, treatment effect estimates from different methods were similar. However, differences of >10% occurred between participant- and cluster-average estimates for 5 of 17 outcomes (29%). We also observed several notable differences between estimates from mixed-effects models or generalised estimating equations with an exchangeable correlation structure and those based on independence estimating equations. For example, for the EQ-5D VAS score, the independence estimating equation estimate of the participant-average difference was 4.15 (95% confidence interval: -3.37 to 11.66), compared with 2.84 (95% confidence interval: -7.37 to 13.04) for the cluster-average independence estimating equation estimate, and 3.23 (95% confidence interval: -6.70 to 13.16) from a mixed-effects model. Similarly, for thromboembolic/ischaemic events, the independence estimating equation estimate for the participant-average odds ratio was 0.43 (95% confidence interval: 0.07 to 2.48), compared with 0.33 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 1.77) from the cluster-average estimator.

CONCLUSION

In this re-analysis, we found that estimates from the various approaches could differ, which may be due to the presence of informative cluster size. Careful consideration of the estimand and the plausibility of assumptions underpinning each estimator can help ensure an appropriate analysis methods are used. Independence estimating equations and the analysis of cluster-level summaries (with appropriate weighting for each to correspond to either the participant-average or cluster-average treatment effect) are a desirable choice when informative cluster size is deemed possible, due to their unbiasedness in this setting.

Prevalence of Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in a Population-Representative Sample of Young Adults in a High HIV Incidence Area in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Recent population-representative estimates of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence in high HIV burden areas in southern Africa are limited. We estimated the prevalence and associated factors of 3 STIs among adolescents and young adults (AYA) in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Between March 2020 and May 2021, a population-representative sample of AYA aged 16 to 29 years were randomly selected from a Health and Demographic Surveillance Site in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, for a 2 × 2 factorial randomized controlled trial. Participants in 2 intervention arms were offered baseline testing for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomoniasis using GeneXpert. Prevalence estimates were weighted for participation bias, and logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with STIs.

RESULTS

Of 2323 eligible AYA, 1743 (75%) enrolled in the trial. Among 863 eligible for STI testing, 814 (94%) provided specimens (median age of 21.8 years, 52% female, and 71% residing in rural areas). Population-weighted prevalence estimates were 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.2%-5.8%) for gonorrhea, 17.9% (16.5%-19.3%) for chlamydia, 5.4% (4.6%-6.3%) for trichomoniasis, and 23.7% (22.2%-25.3%) for any STI. In multivariable models, female sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.24; 95% CI, 1.48-3.09) and urban/periurban (vs. rural) residence (aOR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.02-2.15) were associated with STIs; recent migration was associated with lower odds of STI (aOR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.15-0.89). Among those with an STI, 53 (31.0%) were treated within 7 days; median time to treatment was 11 days (interquartile range, 6-77 days).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a high prevalence of curable STIs among AYA in rural South Africa. Improved access to STI testing to enable etiologic diagnosis and rapid treatment is needed.

Shaping care home COVID-19 testing policy: a protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial of asymptomatic testing compared with standard care in care home staff (VIVALDI-CT)

INTRODUCTION

Care home residents have experienced significant morbidity, mortality and disruption following outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Regular SARS-CoV-2 testing of care home staff was introduced to reduce transmission of infection, but it is unclear whether this remains beneficial. This trial aims to investigate whether use of regular asymptomatic staff testing, alongside funding to reimburse sick pay for those who test positive and meet costs of employing agency staff, is a feasible and effective strategy to reduce COVID-19 impact in care homes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The VIVALDI-Clinical Trial is a multicentre, open-label, cluster randomised controlled, phase III/IV superiority trial in up to 280 residential and/or nursing homes in England providing care to adults aged >65 years. All regular and agency staff will be enrolled, excepting those who opt out. Homes will be randomised to the intervention arm (twice weekly asymptomatic staff testing for SARS-CoV-2) or the control arm (current national testing guidance). Staff who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 will self-isolate and receive sick pay. Care providers will be reimbursed for costs associated with employing temporary staff to backfill for absence arising directly from the trial.The trial will be delivered by a multidisciplinary research team through a series of five work packages.The primary outcome is the incidence of COVID-19-related hospital admissions in residents. Secondary outcomes include the number and duration of outbreaks and home closures. Health economic and modelling analyses will investigate the cost-effectiveness and cost consequences of the testing intervention. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews will be conducted to understand intervention roll out and identify areas for optimisation to inform future intervention scale-up, should the testing approach prove effective and cost-effective. Stakeholder engagement will be undertaken to enable the sector to plan for results and their implications and to coproduce recommendations on the use of testing for policy-makers.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the London-Bromley Research Ethics Committee (reference number 22/LO/0846) and the Health Research Authority (22/CAG/0165). The results of the trial will be disseminated regardless of the direction of effect. The publication of the results will comply with a trial-specific publication policy and will include submission to open access journals. A lay summary of the results will also be produced to disseminate the results to participants.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN13296529.

Effect of multi-level interventions on mental health outcomes among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), multiple factors contribute to the considerable burden of mental health disorders among adolescents, highlighting the need for interventions that address underlying risks at multiple levels. We reviewed evidence of the effectiveness of community or family-level interventions, with and without individual level interventions, on mental health disorders among adolescents in SSA.

DESIGN

Systematic review using the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic search was conducted on Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PSYCINFO and Web of Science up to 31 March 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies were eligible for inclusion in the review if they were randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or controlled quasi-experimental studies conducted in sub-Saharan African countries and measured the effect of an intervention on common mental disorders in adolescents aged 10-24 years.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

We included studies that assessed the effect of interventions on depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder and substance abuse. Substance abuse was only considered if it was measured alongside mental health disorders. The findings were summarised using synthesis without meta-analysis, where studies were grouped according to the type of intervention (multi-level, community-level) and participants.

RESULTS

Of 1197 studies that were identified, 30 studies (17 RCTs and 3 quasi-experimental studies) were included in the review of which 10 delivered multi-level interventions and 20 delivered community-level interventions. Synthesised findings suggest that multi-level interventions comprise economic empowerment, peer-support, cognitive behavioural therapy were effective in improving mental health among vulnerable adolescents. Majority of studies that delivered interventions to community groups reported significant positive changes in mental health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence from this review suggests that multi-level interventions can reduce mental health disorders in adolescents. Further research is needed to understand the reliability and sustainability of these promising interventions in different African contexts.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021258826.

Association of diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use with subclinical-to-symptomatic spectrum of tuberculosis in 16 countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities.

Methods

In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679).

Findings

We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%-56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27-2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34-1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17-2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55-1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70-3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59-3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0-85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB.

Funding

None.

Sexual and reproductive health in Britain during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: cross-sectional population survey (Natsal-COVID-Wave 2) and national surveillance data

OBJECTIVES

To assess sexual behaviour, and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, after 1 year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Britain.

METHODS

6658 participants aged 18-59 and resident in Britain completed a cross-sectional web-panel survey (Natsal-COVID-Wave 2, March-April 2021), 1 year after the first lockdown. Natsal-COVID-2 follows the Natsal-COVID-Wave 1 survey (July-August 2020) which captured impacts in the initial months. Quota-based sampling and weighting resulted in a quasi-representative population sample. Data were contextualised with reference to the most recent probability sample population data (Natsal-3; collected 2010-12; 15 162 participants aged 16-74) and national surveillance data on recorded sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing, conceptions, and abortions in England/Wales (2010-2020). The main outcomes were: sexual behaviour; SRH service use; pregnancy, abortion and fertility management; sexual dissatisfaction, distress and difficulties.

RESULTS

In the year from the first lockdown, over two-thirds of participants reported one or more sexual partners (women 71.8%; men 69.9%), while fewer than 20.0% reported a new partner (women 10.4%; men 16.8%). Median occasions of sex per month was two. Compared with 2010-12 (Natsal-3), we found less sexual risk behaviour (lower reporting of multiple partners, new partners, and new condomless partners), including among younger participants and those reporting same-sex behaviour. One in 10 women reported a pregnancy; pregnancies were fewer than in 2010-12 and less likely to be scored as unplanned. 19.3% of women and 22.8% of men were distressed or worried about their sex life, significantly more than in 2010-12. Compared with surveillance trends from 2010 to 2019, we found lower than expected use of STI-related services and HIV testing, lower levels of chlamydia testing, and fewer conceptions and abortions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with significant changes in sexual behaviour, SRH, and service uptake in the year following the first lockdown in Britain. These data are foundational to SRH recovery and policy planning.

Thetha Nami ngithethe nawe (Let's Talk): a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial of social mobilisation by peer navigators into community-based sexual health and HIV care, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), to reduce sexually transmissible HIV amongst young people in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) through universal test and treat (UTT) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) substantially reduces HIV-related mortality and incidence. Effective ART based prevention has not translated into population-level impact in southern Africa due to sub-optimal coverage among youth. We aim to investigate the effectiveness, implementation and cost effectiveness of peer-led social mobilisation into decentralised integrated HIV and sexual reproductive health (SRH) services amongst adolescents and young adults in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

METHODS

We are conducting a type 1a hybrid effectiveness/implementation study, with a cluster randomized stepped-wedge trial (SWT) to assess effectiveness and a realist process evaluation to assess implementation outcomes. The SWT will be conducted in 40 clusters in rural KZN over 45 months. Clusters will be randomly allocated to receive the intervention in period 1 (early) or period 2 (delayed). 1) Intervention arm: Resident peer navigators in each cluster will approach young men and women aged 15-30 years living in their cluster to conduct health, social and educational needs assessment and tailor psychosocial support and health promotion, peer mentorship, and facilitate referrals into nurse led mobile clinics that visit each cluster regularly to deliver integrated SRH and differentiated HIV prevention (HIV testing, UTT for those positive, and PrEP for those eligible and negative). Standard of Care is UTT and PrEP delivered to 15-30 year olds from control clusters through primary health clinics. There are 3 co-primary outcomes measured amongst cross sectional surveys of 15-30 year olds: 1) effectiveness of the intervention in reducing the prevalence of sexually transmissible HIV; 2) uptake of universal risk informed HIV prevention intervention; 3) cost of transmissible HIV infection averted. We will use a realist process evaluation to interrogate the extent to which the intervention components support demand, uptake, and retention in risk-differentiated biomedical HIV prevention.

DISCUSSION

The findings of this trial will be used by policy makers to optimize delivery of universal differentiated HIV prevention, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis through peer-led mobilisation into community-based integrated adolescent and youth friendly HIV and sexual and reproductive health care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier-NCT05405582. Registered: 6th June 2022.

An observer-blinded, cluster randomised trial of a typhoid conjugate vaccine in an urban South Indian cohort

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever causes nearly 110,000 deaths among 9.24 million cases globally and disproportionately affects developing countries. As a control measure in such regions, typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We present here the protocol of a cluster randomised vaccine trial to assess the impact of introducing TyphiBEV® vaccine to those between 1 and 30 years of age in a high-burden setting.

METHODS

The primary objective is to determine the relative and absolute rate reduction of symptomatic, blood-culture-confirmed S. Typhi infection among participants vaccinated with TyphiBEV® in vaccine clusters compared with the unvaccinated participants in non-vaccine clusters. The study population is residents of 30 wards of Vellore (a South Indian city) with participants between the ages of 1 and 30 years who provide informed consent. The wards will be divided into 60 contiguous clusters and 30 will be randomly selected for its participants to receive TyphiBEV® at the start of the study. No placebo/control is planned for the non-intervention clusters, which will receive the vaccine at the end of the trial. Participants will not be blinded to their intervention. Episodes of typhoid fever among participants will be captured via stimulated, passive fever surveillance in the area for 2 years after vaccination, which will include the most utilised healthcare facilities. Observers blinded to the participants' intervention statuses will record illness details. Relative and absolute rate reductions will be calculated at the end of this surveillance and used to estimate vaccine effectiveness.

DISCUSSION

The results from our trial will allow countries to make better-informed decisions regarding the TCV that they will roll-out and may improve the global supplies and affordability of the vaccines.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI) CTRI/2022/03/041314. Prospectively registered on 23 March 2022 ( https://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pmaindet2.php?trialid=62548&EncHid=&userName=vellore%20typhoid ). CTRI collects the full WHO Trial Registration Data Set.

Effectiveness of successive booster vaccine doses against SARS-CoV-2 related mortality in residents of long-term care facilities in the VIVALDI study

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused severe disease in unvaccinated long-term care facility (LTCF) residents. Initial booster vaccination following primary vaccination is known to provide strong short-term protection, but data are limited on duration of protection and the protective effect of further booster vaccinations.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of third, fourth and fifth dose booster vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 related mortality amongst older residents of LTCFs.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

LTCFs for older people in England participating in the VIVALDI study.

METHODS

Residents aged >65 years at participating LTCFs were eligible for inclusion if they had at least one polymerase chain reaction or lateral flow device result within the analysis period 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022. We excluded individuals who had not received at least two vaccine doses before the analysis period. Cox regression was used to estimate relative hazards of SARS-CoV-2 related mortality following 1-3 booster vaccinations compared with primary vaccination, stratified by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and adjusting for age, sex and LTCF size (total beds).

RESULTS

A total of 13,407 residents were included. Our results indicate that third, fourth and fifth dose booster vaccination provide additional short-term protection against SARS-CoV-2 related mortality relative to primary vaccination, with consistent stabilisation beyond 112 days to 45-75% reduction in risk relative to primary vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Successive booster vaccination doses provide additional short-term protection against SARS-CoV-2 related mortality amongst older LTCF residents. However, we did not find evidence of a longer-term reduction in risk beyond that provided by initial booster vaccination.

Contextual factors affecting the implementation of an anemia focused virtual counseling intervention for pregnant women in plains Nepal: a mixed methods process evaluation

BACKGROUND

Anemia is estimated to cause 115,000 maternal deaths each year. In Nepal, 46% of pregnant women have anemia. As part of an integrated anemia-prevention strategy, family engagement and counseling of pregnant women can increase compliance to iron folic acid tablets, but marginalized women often have lower access to these interventions. We implemented the VALID (Virtual antenatal intervention for improved diet and iron intake) randomized controlled trial to test a family-focused virtual counseling mHealth intervention designed to inclusively increase iron folic acid compliance in rural Nepal; here we report findings from our process evaluation research.

METHODS

We conducted semi structured interviews with 20 pregnant women who had received the intervention, eight husbands, seven mothers-in-laws and four health workers. We did four focus groups discussions with intervention implementers, 39 observations of counseling, and used routine monitoring data in our evaluation. We used inductive and deductive analysis of qualitative data, and descriptive statistics of monitoring data.

RESULTS

We were able to implement the intervention largely as planned and all participants liked the dialogical counseling approach and use of story-telling to trigger conversation. However, an unreliable and inaccessible mobile network impeded training families about how to use the mobile device, arrange the counseling time, and conduct the counseling. Women were not equally confident using mobile devices, and the need to frequently visit households to troubleshoot negated the virtual nature of the intervention for some. Women's lack of agency restricted both their ability to speak freely and their mobility, which meant that some women were unable to move to areas with better mobile reception. It was difficult for some women to schedule the counseling, as there were competing demands on their time. Family members were difficult to engage because they were often working outside the home; the small screen made it difficult to interact, and some women were uncomfortable speaking in front of family members.

CONCLUSIONS

It is important to understand gender norms, mobile access, and mobile literacy before implementing an mHealth intervention. The contextual barriers to implementation meant that we were not able to engage family members as much as we had hoped, and we were not able to minimize in-person contact with families. We recommend a flexible approach to mHealth interventions which can be responsive to local context and the situation of participants. Home visits may be more effective for those women who are most marginalized, lack confidence in using a mobile device, and where internet access is poor.

Economic evaluation of participatory women's groups scaled up by the public health system to improve birth outcomes in Jharkhand, eastern India

An estimated 2.4 million newborn infants died in 2020, 80% of them in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. To achieve the Sustainable Development Target for neonatal mortality reduction, countries with high mortality need to implement evidence-based, cost-effective interventions at scale. Our study aimed to estimate the cost, cost-effectiveness, and benefit-cost ratio of a participatory women's groups intervention scaled up by the public health system in Jharkhand, eastern India. The intervention was evaluated through a pragmatic cluster non-randomised controlled trial in six districts. We estimated the cost of the intervention at scale from a provider perspective, with a 42-month time horizon for 20 districts. We estimated costs using a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches. All costs were adjusted for inflation, discounted at 3% per year, and converted to 2020 International Dollars (INT$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated using extrapolated effect sizes for the impact of the intervention in 20 districts, in terms of cost per neonatal deaths averted and cost per life year saved. We assessed the impact of uncertainty on results through one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We also estimated benefit-cost ratio using a benefit transfer approach. Total intervention costs for 20 districts were INT$ 15,017,396. The intervention covered an estimated 1.6 million livebirths across 20 districts, translating to INT$ 9.4 per livebirth covered. ICERs were estimated at INT$ 1,272 per neonatal death averted or INT$ 41 per life year saved. Net benefit estimates ranged from INT$ 1,046 million to INT$ 3,254 million, and benefit-cost ratios from 71 to 218. Our study suggests that participatory women's groups scaled up by the Indian public health system were highly cost-effective in improving neonatal survival and had a very favourable return on investment. The intervention can be scaled up in similar settings within India and other countries.

Antenatal detection of large-for-gestational-age fetuses following implementation of the Growth Assessment Protocol: secondary analysis of a randomised control trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP) affects the antenatal detection of large for gestational age (LGA) or maternal and perinatal outcomes amongst LGA babies.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a pragmatic open randomised cluster control trial comparing the GAP with standard care.

SETTING

Eleven UK maternity units.

POPULATION

Pregnant women and their LGA babies born at ≥36⁺⁰  weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Clusters were randomly allocated to GAP implementation or standard care. Data were collected from electronic patient records. Trial arms were compared using summary statistics, with unadjusted and adjusted (two-stage cluster summary approach) differences.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rate of detection of LGA (estimated fetal weight on ultrasound scan above the 90th centile after 34⁺⁰  weeks of gestation, defined by either population or customised growth charts), maternal and perinatal outcomes (e.g. mode of birth, postpartum haemorrhage, severe perineal tears, birthweight and gestational age, neonatal unit admission, perinatal mortality, and neonatal morbidity and mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 506 LGA babies were exposed to GAP and 618 babies received standard care. There were no significant differences in the rate of LGA detection (GAP 38.0% vs standard care 48.0%; adjusted effect size -4.9%; 95% CI -20.5, 10.7; p = 0.54), nor in any of the maternal or perinatal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of GAP did not change the rate of antenatal ultrasound detection of LGA when compared with standard care.

Community participatory learning and action cycle groups to reduce type 2 diabetes in Bangladesh (D:Clare): an updated study protocol for a parallel arm cluster randomised controlled trial

The "Diabetes: Community-led Awareness, Response and Evaluation" (D:Clare) trial aims to scale up and replicate an evidence-based participatory learning and action cycle intervention in Bangladesh, to inform policy on population-level T2DM prevention and control.The trial was originally designed as a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial, with the interventions running from March 2020 to September 2022. Twelve clusters were randomly allocated (1:1) to implement the intervention at months 1 or 12 in two steps, and evaluated through three cross-sectional surveys at months 1, 12 and 24. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we suspended project activities on the 20th of March 2020. As a result of the changed risk landscape and the delays introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, we changed from the stepped-wedge design to a wait-list parallel arm cluster RCT (cRCT) with baseline data. We had four key reasons for eventually agreeing to change designs: equipoise, temporal bias in exposure and outcomes, loss of power and time and funding considerations.Trial registration ISRCTN42219712 . Registered on 31 October 2019.

Characteristics associated with antenatally unidentified small-for-gestational-age fetuses: prospective cohort study nested within DESiGN randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To identify the clinical characteristics and patterns of ultrasound use amongst pregnancies with an antenatally unidentified small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetus, compared with those in which SGA is identified, to understand how to design interventions that improve antenatal SGA identification.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of singleton, non-anomalous SGA (birth weight < 10th centile) neonates born after 24 + 0 gestational weeks at 13 UK sites, recruited for the baseline period and control arm of the DESiGN trial. Pregnancy with antenatally unidentified SGA was defined if there was no scan or if the final scan showed estimated fetal weight (EFW) at the 10th centile or above. Identified SGA was defined if EFW was below the 10th centile at the last scan. Maternal and fetal sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were studied for associations with unidentified SGA using unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models. Ultrasound parameters (gestational age at first growth scan, number and frequency of ultrasound scans) were described, stratified by presence of indication for serial ultrasound. Associations of unidentified SGA with absolute centile and percentage weight difference between the last scan and birth were also studied on unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression, according to time between the last scan and birth.

RESULTS

Of the 15 784 SGA babies included, SGA was not identified antenatally in 78.7% of cases. Of pregnancies with unidentified SGA, 47.1% had no recorded growth scan. Amongst 9410 pregnancies with complete data on key maternal comorbidities and antenatal complications, the risk of unidentified SGA was lower for women with any indication for serial scans (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.56 (95% CI, 0.49-0.64)), for Asian compared with white women (aOR, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69-0.93)) and for those with non-cephalic presentation at birth (aOR, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.46-0.73)). The risk of unidentified SGA was highest among women with a body mass index (BMI) of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 (aOR, 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.32)) and lowest in those with underweight BMI (aOR, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.48-0.76)) compared to women with BMI of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 . Compared to women with identified SGA, those with unidentified SGA had fetuses of higher SGA birth-weight centile (adjusted odds for unidentified SGA increased by 1.21 (95% CI, 1.18-1.23) per one-centile increase between the 0th and 10th centiles). Duration between the last scan and birth increased with advancing gestation in pregnancies with unidentified SGA. SGA babies born within a week of the last growth scan had a mean difference between EFW and birth-weight centiles of 19.5 (SD, 13.8) centiles for the unidentified-SGA group and 0.2 (SD, 3.3) centiles for the identified-SGA group (adjusted mean difference between groups, 19.0 (95% CI, 17.8-20.1) centiles).

CONCLUSIONS

Unidentified SGA was more common amongst women without an indication for serial ultrasound, and in those with cephalic presentation at birth, BMI of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 and less severe SGA. Ultrasound EFW was overestimated in women with unidentified SGA. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of SGA screening strategies in low-risk populations and continuing performance of ultrasound scans for term pregnancies. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a virtual antenatal intervention for improved diet and iron intake in Kapilvastu district, Nepal: VALID

INTRODUCTION

Despite evidence that iron and folic acid (IFA) supplements can improve anaemia in pregnant women, uptake in Nepal is suboptimal. We hypothesised that providing virtual counselling twice in mid-pregnancy, would increase compliance to IFA tablets during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with antenatal care (ANC alone.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This non-blinded individually randomised controlled trial in the plains of Nepal has two study arms: (1) control: routine ANC; and (2) 'Virtual' antenatal counselling plus routine ANC. Pregnant women are eligible to enrol if they are married, aged 13-49 years, able to respond to questions, 12-28 weeks' gestation, and plan to reside in Nepal for the next 5 weeks. The intervention comprises two virtual counselling sessions facilitated by auxiliary nurse midwives at least 2 weeks apart in mid-pregnancy. Virtual counselling uses a dialogical problem-solving approach with pregnant women and their families. We randomised 150 pregnant women to each arm, stratifying by primigravida/multigravida and IFA consumption at baseline, providing 80% power to detect a 15% absolute difference in primary outcome assuming 67% prevalence in control arm and 10% loss-to-follow-up. Outcomes are measured 49-70 days after enrolment, or up to delivery otherwise.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

consumption of IFA on at least 80% of the previous 14 days.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

dietary diversity, consumption of intervention-promoted foods, practicing ways to enhance bioavailability and knowledge of iron-rich foods. Our mixed-methods process evaluation explores acceptability, fidelity, feasibility, coverage (equity and reach), sustainability and pathways to impact. We estimate costs and cost-effectiveness of the intervention from a provider perspective. Primary analysis is by intention-to-treat, using logistic regression.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We obtained ethical approval from Nepal Health Research Council (570/2021) and UCL ethics committee (14301/001). We will disseminate findings in peer-reviewed journal articles and by engaging policymakers in Nepal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN17842200.

Strong peak immunogenicity but rapid antibody waning following third vaccine dose in older residents of care homes

Third-dose coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines are being deployed widely but their efficacy has not been assessed adequately in vulnerable older people who exhibit suboptimal responses after primary vaccination series. This observational study, which was carried out by the VIVALDI study based in England, looked at spike-specific immune responses in 341 staff and residents in long-term care facilities who received an mRNA vaccine following dual primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Third-dose vaccination strongly increased antibody responses with preferential relative enhancement in older people and was required to elicit neutralization of Omicron. Cellular immune responses were also enhanced with strong cross-reactive recognition of Omicron. However, antibody titers fell 21-78% within 100 d after vaccine and 27% of participants developed a breakthrough Omicron infection. These findings reveal strong immunogenicity of a third vaccine in one of the most vulnerable population groups and endorse an approach for widespread delivery across this population. Ongoing assessment will be required to determine the stability of immune protection.

Clinical Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccine Against Omicron Infection in Residents and Staff of Long-term Care Facilities: A Prospective Cohort Study (VIVALDI)

Background

Successive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have caused severe disease in long-term care facility (LTCF) residents. Primary vaccination provides strong short-term protection, but data are limited on duration of protection following booster vaccines, particularly against the Omicron variant. We investigated the effectiveness of booster vaccination against infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among LTCF residents and staff in England.

Methods

We included residents and staff of LTCFs within the VIVALDI study (ISRCTN 14447421) who underwent routine, asymptomatic testing (December 12, 2021-March 31, 2022). Cox regression was used to estimate relative hazards of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and associated hospitalization and death at 0-13, 14-48, 49-83, 84-111, 112-139, and 140+ days after dose 3 of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination compared with 2 doses (after 84+ days), stratified by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and adjusting for age, sex, LTCF capacity, and local SARS-CoV-2 incidence.

Results

A total of 14 175 residents and 19 793 staff were included. In residents without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, infection risk was reduced 0-111 days after the first booster, but no protection was apparent after 112 days. Additional protection following booster vaccination waned but was still present at 140+ days for COVID-associated hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.20; 95% CI, 0.06-0.63) and death (aHR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.20-1.27). Most residents (64.4%) had received primary course vaccine of AstraZeneca, but this did not impact pre- or postbooster risk. Staff showed a similar pattern of waning booster effectiveness against infection, with few hospitalizations and no deaths.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that booster vaccination provided sustained protection against severe outcomes following infection with the Omicron variant, but no protection against infection from 4 months onwards. Ongoing surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in LTCFs is crucial.

Effects of community youth teams facilitating participatory adolescent groups, youth leadership activities and livelihood promotion to improve school attendance, dietary diversity and mental health among adolescent girls in rural eastern India (JIAH trial): A cluster-randomised controlled trial

Objectives

To evaluate whether and how community youth teams facilitating participatory adolescent groups, youth leadership and livelihood promotion improved school attendance, dietary diversity, and mental health among adolescent girls in rural India.

Design

A parallel group, two-arm, superiority, cluster-randomised controlled trial with an embedded process evaluation.

Setting intervention and participants

38 clusters (19 intervention, 19 control) in West Singhbhum district in Jharkhand, India. The intervention included participatory adolescent groups and youth leadership for boys and girls aged 10-19 (intervention clusters only), and family-based livelihood promotion (intervention and control clusters) between June 2017 and March 2020. We surveyed 3324 adolescent girls aged 10-19 in 38 clusters at baseline, and 1478 in 29 clusters at endline. Four intervention and five control clusters were lost to follow up when the trial was suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Adolescent boys were included in the process evaluation only.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

Primary: school attendance, dietary diversity, and mental health; 12 secondary outcomes related to education, empowerment, experiences of violence, and sexual and reproductive health.

Results

In intervention vs control clusters, mean dietary diversity score was 4·0 (SD 1·5) vs 3·6 (SD 1·2) (adjDiff 0·34; 95%CI -0·23, 0·93, p = 0·242); mean Brief Problem Monitor-Youth (mental health) score was 12·5 (SD 6·0) vs 11·9 (SD 5·9) (adjDiff 0·02, 95%CI -0·06, 0·13, p = 0·610); and school enrolment rates were 70% vs 63% (adjOR 1·39, 95%CI 0·89, 2·16, p = 0·142). Uptake of school-based entitlements was higher in intervention clusters (adjOR 2·01; 95%CI 1·11, 3·64, p = 0·020). Qualitative data showed that the community youth team had helped adolescents and their parents navigate school bureaucracy, facilitated re-enrolments, and supported access to entitlements. Overall intervention delivery was feasible, but positive impacts were likely undermined by household poverty.

Conclusions

Participatory adolescent groups, leadership training and livelihood promotion delivered by a community youth team did not improve adolescent girls' mental health, dietary diversity, or school attendance in rural India, but may have increased uptake of education-related entitlements.

Trial registration

ISRCTN17206016.

Assessing the impact of online postal self-sampling for sexually transmitted infections on health inequalities, access to care and clinical outcomes in the UK: protocol for ASSIST, a realist evaluation

INTRODUCTION

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in the volume and proportion of testing for sexually transmitted infections that are accessed via online postal self-sampling services in the UK. ASSIST (Assessing the impact of online postal self-sampling for sexually transmitted infections on health inequalities, access to care and clinical outcomes in the UK) aims to assess the impact of these services on health inequalities, access to care, and clinical and economic outcomes, and to identify the factors that influence the implementation and sustainability of these services.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

ASSIST is a mixed-methods, realist evaluated, national study with an in-depth focus of three case study areas (Birmingham, London and Sheffield). An impact evaluation, economic evaluation and implementation evaluation will be conducted. Findings from these evaluations will be analysed together to develop programme theories that explain the outcomes. Data collection includes quantitative data (using national, clinic based and online datasets); qualitative interviews with service users, healthcare professionals and key stakeholders; contextual observations and documentary analysis. STATA 17 and NVivo will be used to conduct the quantitative and qualitative analysis, respectively.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by South Central - Berkshire Research Ethics Committee (ref: 21/SC/0223). All quantitative data accessed and collected will be anonymous. Participants involved with qualitative interviews will be asked for informed consent, and data collected will be anonymised.Our dissemination strategy has been developed to access and engage key audiences in a timely manner and findings will be disseminated via the study website, social media, in peer-reviewed scientific journals, at research conferences, local meetings and seminars and at a concluding dissemination and networking event for stakeholders.

Improving antenatal detection of small-for-gestational-age fetus: economic evaluation of Growth Assessment Protocol

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP), as implemented in the DESiGN trial, is cost-effective in terms of antenatal detection of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, when compared with standard care.

METHODS

This was an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis undertaken from the perspective of a UK National Health Service hospital provider. Thirteen maternity units from England, UK, were recruited to the DESiGN (DEtection of Small for GestatioNal age fetus) trial, a cluster randomized controlled trial. Singleton, non-anomalous pregnancies which delivered after 24 + 0 gestational weeks between November 2015 and February 2019 were analyzed. Probabilistic decision modeling using clinical trial data was undertaken. The main outcomes of the study were the expected incremental cost, the additional number of SGA neonates identified antenatally and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (cost per additional SGA neonate identified) of implementing GAP. Secondary analysis focused on the ICER per infant quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

The expected incremental cost (including hospital care and implementation costs) of GAP over standard care was £34 559 per 1000 births, with a 68% probability that implementation of GAP would be associated with increased costs to sustain program delivery. GAP identified an additional 1.77 SGA neonates per 1000 births (55% probability of it being more clinically effective). The ICER for GAP was £19 525 per additional SGA neonate identified, with a 44% probability that GAP would both increase cost and identify more SGA neonates compared with standard care. The probability of GAP being the dominant clinical strategy was low (11%). The expected incremental cost per infant QALY gained ranged from £68 242 to £545 940, depending on assumptions regarding the QALY value of detection of SGA.

CONCLUSION

The economic case for replacing standard care with GAP is weak based on the analysis reported in our study. However, this conclusion should be viewed taking into account that cost-effectiveness analyses are always limited by the assumptions made. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Implementation of the Afya conditional cash transfer intervention to retain women in the continuum of care: a mixed-methods process evaluation

OBJECTIVES

We report the results of a mixed-methods process evaluation that aimed to provide insight on the Afya conditional cash transfer (CCT) intervention fidelity and acceptability.

INTERVENTION, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The Afya CCT intervention aimed to retain women in the continuum of maternal healthcare including antenatal care (ANC), delivery at facility and postnatal care (PNC) in Siaya County, Kenya. The cash transfers were delivered using an electronic card reader system at health facilities. It was evaluated in a trial that randomised 48 health facilities to intervention or control, and which found modest increases in attendance for ANC and immunisation appointments, but little effect on delivery at facility and PNC visits.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods process evaluation was conducted. We used the Afya electronic portal with recorded visits and payments, and reports on use of the electronic card reader system from each healthcare facility to assess fidelity. Focus group interviews with participants (N=5) and one-on-one interviews with participants (N=10) and healthcare staff (N=15) were conducted to assess the acceptability of the intervention. Data analyses were conducted using descriptive statistics and qualitative content analysis, as appropriate.

RESULTS

Delivery of the Afya CCT intervention was negatively affected by problems with the electronic card reader system and a decrease in adherence to its use over the intervention period by healthcare staff, resulting in low implementation fidelity. Acceptability of cash transfers in the form of mobile transfers was high for participants. Initially, the intervention was acceptable to healthcare staff, especially with respect to improvements in attaining facility targets for ANC visits. However, acceptability was negatively affected by significant delays linked to the card reader system.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight operational challenges in delivering the Afya CCT intervention using the Afya electronic card reader system, and the need for greater technology readiness before further scale-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03021070.

Effectiveness of rapid SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing in supporting infection control for hospital-onset COVID-19 infection: multicenter, prospective study

Background: Viral sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been used for outbreak investigation, but there is limited evidence supporting routine use for infection prevention and control (IPC) within hospital settings.

Methods: We conducted a prospective non-randomised trial of sequencing at 14 acute UK hospital trusts. Sites each had a 4-week baseline data-collection period, followed by intervention periods comprising 8 weeks of 'rapid' (<48h) and 4 weeks of 'longer-turnaround' (5-10 day) sequencing using a sequence reporting tool (SRT). Data were collected on all hospital onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs; detected ≥48h from admission). The impact of the sequencing intervention on IPC knowledge and actions, and on incidence of probable/definite hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) was evaluated.

Results: A total of 2170 HOCI cases were recorded from October 2020-April 2021, corresponding to a period of extreme strain on the health service, with sequence reports returned for 650/1320 (49.2%) during intervention phases. We did not detect a statistically significant change in weekly incidence of HAIs in longer-turnaround (incidence rate ratio 1.60, 95%CI 0.85-3.01; P=0.14) or rapid (0.85, 0.48-1.50; P=0.54) intervention phases compared to baseline phase. However, IPC practice was changed in 7.8% and 7.4% of all HOCI cases in rapid and longer-turnaround phases, respectively, and 17.2% and 11.6% of cases where the report was returned. In a 'per-protocol' sensitivity analysis there was an impact on IPC actions in 20.7% of HOCI cases when the SRT report was returned within 5 days. Capacity to respond effectively to insights from sequencing was breached in most sites by the volume of cases and limited resources.

Conclusion: While we did not demonstrate a direct impact of sequencing on the incidence of nosocomial transmission, our results suggest that sequencing can inform IPC response to HOCIs, particularly when returned within 5 days.

Funding: COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) [grant code: MC_PC_19027], and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

Clinical trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04405934.

Effect of the Growth Assessment Protocol on the DEtection of Small for GestatioNal age fetus: process evaluation from the DESiGN cluster randomised trial

Background

Reducing the rate of stillbirth is an international priority. At least half of babies stillborn in high-income countries are small for gestational-age (SGA). The Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP), a complex antenatal intervention that aims to increase the rate of antenatal detection of SGA, was evaluated in the DESiGN type 2 hybrid effectiveness-implementation cluster randomised trial (n = 13 clusters). In this paper, we present the trial process evaluation.

Methods

A mixed-methods process evaluation was conducted. Clinical leads and frontline healthcare professionals were interviewed to inform understanding of context (implementing and standard care sites) and GAP implementation (implementing sites). Thematic analysis of interview text used the context and implementation of complex interventions framework to understand acceptability, feasibility, and the impact of context. A review of implementing cluster clinical guidelines, training and maternity records was conducted to assess fidelity, dose and reach.

Results

Interviews were conducted with 28 clinical leads and 27 frontline healthcare professionals across 11 sites. Staff at implementing sites generally found GAP to be acceptable but raised issues of feasibility, caused by conflicting demands on resource, and variable beliefs among clinical leaders regarding the intervention value. GAP was implemented with variable fidelity (concordance of local guidelines to GAP was high at two sites, moderate at two and low at one site), all sites achieved the target to train > 75% staff using face-to-face methods, but only one site trained > 75% staff using e-learning methods; a median of 84% (range 78–87%) of women were correctly risk stratified at the five implementing sites. Most sites achieved high scores for reach (median 94%, range 62–98% of women had a customised growth chart), but generally, low scores for dose (median 31%, range 8–53% of low-risk women and median 5%, range 0–17% of high-risk women) were monitored for SGA as recommended.

Conclusions

Implementation of GAP was generally acceptable to staff but with issues of feasibility that are likely to have contributed to variation in implementation strength. Leadership and resourcing are fundamental to effective implementation of clinical service changes, even when such changes are well aligned to policy mandated service-change priorities.

Trial registration

Primary registry and trial identifying number: ISRCTN 67698474. Registered 02/11/16. 10.1186/ISRCTN67698474.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13012-022-01228-1.

Antibody and cellular immune responses following dual COVID-19 vaccination within infection-naive residents of long-term care facilities: an observational cohort study

Background

Older age and frailty are risk factors for poor clinical outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection. As such, COVID-19 vaccination has been prioritised for individuals with these factors, but there is concern that immune responses might be impaired due to age-related immune dysregulation and comorbidity. We aimed to study humoral and cellular responses to COVID-19 vaccines in residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs).

Methods

In this observational cohort study, we assessed antibody and cellular immune responses following COVID-19 vaccination in members of staff and residents at 74 LTCFs across the UK. Staff and residents were eligible for inclusion if it was possible to link them to a pseudo-identifier in the COVID-19 datastore, if they had received two vaccine doses, and if they had given a blood sample 6 days after vaccination at the earliest. There were no comorbidity exclusion criteria. Participants were stratified by age (<65 years or ≥65 years) and infection status (previous SARS-CoV-2 infection [infection-primed group] or SARS-CoV-2 naive [infection-naive group]). Anticoagulated edetic acid (EDTA) blood samples were assessed and humoral and cellular responses were quantified.

Findings

Between Dec 11, 2020, and June 27, 2021, blood samples were taken from 220 people younger than 65 years (median age 51 years [IQR 39-61]; 103 [47%] had previously had a SARS-CoV-2 infection) and 268 people aged 65 years or older of LTCFs (median age 87 years [80-92]; 144 [43%] had a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection). Samples were taken a median of 82 days (IQR 72-100) after the second vaccination. Antibody responses following dual vaccination were strong and equivalent between participants younger then 65 years and those aged 65 years and older in the infection-primed group (median 125 285 Au/mL [1128 BAU/mL] for <65 year olds vs 157 979 Au/mL [1423 BAU/mL] for ≥65 year olds; p=0·47). The antibody response was reduced by 2·4-times (467 BAU/mL; p≤0·0001) in infection-naive people younger than 65 years and 8·1-times (174 BAU/mL; p≤0·0001) in infection-naive residents compared with their infection-primed counterparts. Antibody response was 2·6-times lower in infection-naive residents than in infection-naive people younger than 65 years (p=0·0006). Impaired neutralisation of delta (1.617.2) variant spike binding was also apparent in infection-naive people younger than 65 years and in those aged 65 years and older. Spike-specific T-cell responses were also significantly enhanced in the infection-primed group. Infection-naive people aged 65 years and older (203 SFU per million [IQR 89-374]) had a 52% lower T-cell response compared with infection-naive people younger than 65 years (85 SFU per million [30-206]; p≤0·0001). Post-vaccine spike-specific CD4 T-cell responses displayed single or dual production of IFN-γ and IL-2 were similar across infection status groups, whereas the infection-primed group had an extended functional profile with TNFα and CXCL10 production.

Interpretation

These data reveal suboptimal post-vaccine immune responses within infection-naive residents of LTCFs, and they suggest the need for optimisation of immune protection through the use of booster vaccination.

Funding

UK Government Department of Health and Social Care.

Evaluation of the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP) for antenatal detection of small for gestational age: The DESiGN cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Antenatal detection and management of small for gestational age (SGA) is a strategy to reduce stillbirth. Large observational studies provide conflicting results on the effect of the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP) in relation to detection of SGA and reduction of stillbirth; to the best of our knowledge, there are no reported randomised control trials. Our aim was to determine if GAP improves antenatal detection of SGA compared to standard care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This was a pragmatic, superiority, 2-arm, parallel group, open, cluster randomised control trial. Maternity units in England were eligible to participate in the study, except if they had already implemented GAP. All women who gave birth in participating clusters (maternity units) during the year prior to randomisation and during the trial (November 2016 to February 2019) were included. Multiple pregnancies, fetal abnormalities or births before 24+1 weeks were excluded. Clusters were randomised to immediate implementation of GAP, an antenatal care package aimed at improving detection of SGA as a means to reduce the rate of stillbirth, or to standard care. Randomisation by random permutation was stratified by time of study inclusion and cluster size. Data were obtained from hospital electronic records for 12 months prerandomisation, the washout period (interval between randomisation and data collection of outcomes), and the outcome period (last 6 months of the study). The primary outcome was ultrasound detection of SGA (estimated fetal weight <10th centile using customised centiles (intervention) or Hadlock centiles (standard care)) confirmed at birth (birthweight <10th centile by both customised and population centiles). Secondary outcomes were maternal and neonatal outcomes, including induction of labour, gestational age at delivery, mode of birth, neonatal morbidity, and stillbirth/perinatal mortality. A 2-stage cluster-summary statistical approach calculated the absolute difference (intervention minus standard care arm) adjusted using the prerandomisation estimate, maternal age, ethnicity, parity, and randomisation strata. Intervention arm clusters that made no attempt to implement GAP were excluded in modified intention to treat (mITT) analysis; full ITT was also reported. Process evaluation assessed implementation fidelity, reach, dose, acceptability, and feasibility. Seven clusters were randomised to GAP and 6 to standard care. Following exclusions, there were 11,096 births exposed to the intervention (5 clusters) and 13,810 exposed to standard care (6 clusters) during the outcome period (mITT analysis). Age, height, and weight were broadly similar between arms, but there were fewer women: of white ethnicity (56.2% versus 62.7%), and in the least deprived quintile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (7.5% versus 16.5%) in the intervention arm during the outcome period. Antenatal detection of SGA was 25.9% in the intervention and 27.7% in the standard care arm (adjusted difference 2.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -6.4% to 10.7%; p = 0.62). Findings were consistent in full ITT analysis. Fidelity and dose of GAP implementation were variable, while a high proportion (88.7%) of women were reached. Use of routinely collected data is both a strength (cost-efficient) and a limitation (occurrence of missing data); the modest number of clusters limits our ability to study small effect sizes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed no effect of GAP on antenatal detection of SGA compared to standard care. Given variable implementation observed, future studies should incorporate standardised implementation outcomes such as those reported here to determine generalisability of our findings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN67698474.

Robust SARS-CoV-2-specific and heterologous immune responses in vaccine-naïve residents of long-term care facilities who survive natural infection

We studied humoral and cellular immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in 152 long-term care facility staff and 124 residents over a prospective 4-month period shortly after the first wave of infection in England. We show that residents of long-term care facilities developed high and stable levels of antibodies against spike protein and receptor-binding domain. Nucleocapsid-specific responses were also elevated but waned over time. Antibodies showed stable and equivalent levels of functional inhibition against spike-angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 binding in all age groups with comparable activity against viral variants of concern. SARS-CoV-2 seropositive donors showed high levels of antibodies to other beta-coronaviruses but serostatus did not impact humoral immunity to influenza or other respiratory syncytial viruses. SARS-CoV-2-specific cellular responses were similar across all ages but virus-specific populations showed elevated levels of activation in older donors. Thus, survivors of SARS-CoV-2 infection show a robust and stable immunity against the virus that does not negatively impact responses to other seasonal viruses.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx-1 vaccines in residents of long-term care facilities in England using a time-varying proportional hazards model

Introduction

residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are at high risk of adverse outcomes from SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of one and two doses of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx-1 against SARS CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related death in residents of LTCFs.

Methods

this observational study used testing, vaccination and mortality data for LTCF residents aged ≥ 65 years who were regularly tested regardless of symptoms from 8 December 2020 to 30 September 2021 in England. Adjusted VE, calculated as one minus adjusted hazard ratio, was estimated using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models for infection and death within 28 days of positive test result. Vaccine status was defined by receipt of one or two doses of vaccine and assessed over a range of intervals.

Results

of 197,885 LTCF residents, 47,087 (23.8%) had a positive test and 11,329 (5.8%) died within 28 days of a positive test during the study period. Relative to unvaccinated individuals, VE for infection was highest for ChAdOx-1 at 61% (40–74%) at 1–4 weeks and for BNT162b2 at 69% (52–80%) at 11–15 weeks following the second dose. Against death, VE was highest for ChAdOx-1 at 83% (58–94%) at 1–4 weeks and for BNT162b2 at 91% (75–97%) at 11–15 weeks following second dose.

Conclusions

compared with unvaccinated residents, vaccination with one dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx-1 provided moderate protection against infection and death in residents of LTCFs. Protection against death improved after two doses. However, some waning of protection over time was noted.

Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 omicron infection in residents of long-term care facilities in England (VIVALDI): a prospective, cohort study

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is highly transmissible, but disease severity appears to be reduced compared with previous variants such as alpha and delta. We investigated the risk of severe outcomes following infection in residents of long-term care facilities.

Methods

We did a prospective cohort study in residents of long-term care facilities in England who were tested regularly for SARS-CoV-2 between Sept 1, 2021, and Feb 1, 2022, and who were participants of the VIVALDI study. Residents were eligible for inclusion if they had a positive PCR or lateral flow device test during the study period, which could be linked to a National Health Service (NHS) number, enabling linkage to hospital admissions and mortality datasets. PCR or lateral flow device test results were linked to national hospital admission and mortality records using the NHS-number-based pseudo-identifier. We compared the risk of hospital admission (within 14 days following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test) or death (within 28 days) in residents who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the period shortly before omicron emerged (delta-dominant) and in the omicron-dominant period, adjusting for age, sex, primary vaccine course, past infection, and booster vaccination. Variants were confirmed by sequencing or spike-gene status in a subset of samples.

Results

795 233 tests were done in 333 long-term care facilities, of which 159 084 (20·0%) could not be linked to a pseudo-identifier and 138 012 (17·4%) were done in residents. Eight residents had two episodes of infection (>28 days apart) and in these cases the second episode was excluded from the analysis. 2264 residents in 259 long-term care facilities (median age 84·5 years, IQR 77·9-90·0) were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2, of whom 253 (11·2%) had a previous infection and 1468 (64·8%) had received a booster vaccination. About a third of participants were male. Risk of hospital admissions was markedly lower in the 1864 residents infected in the omicron-period (4·51%, 95% CI 3·65-5·55) than in the 400 residents infected in the pre-omicron period (10·50%, 7·87-13·94), as was risk of death (5·48% [4·52-6·64] vs 10·75% [8·09-14·22]). Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) also indicated a reduction in hospital admissions (0·64, 95% CI 0·41-1·00; p=0·051) and mortality (aHR 0·68, 0·44-1·04; p=0·076) in the omicron versus the pre-omicron period. Findings were similar in residents with a confirmed variant.

Interpretation

Observed reduced severity of the omicron variant compared with previous variants suggests that the wave of omicron infections is unlikely to lead to a major surge in severe disease in long-term care facility populations with high levels of vaccine coverage or natural immunity. Continued surveillance in this vulnerable population is important to protect residents from infection and monitor the public health effect of emerging variants.

Funding

UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Protocol for the COG-UK hospital-onset COVID-19 infection (HOCI) multicentre interventional clinical study: evaluating the efficacy of rapid genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in limiting the spread of COVID-19 in UK NHS hospitals

OBJECTIVES

Nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been a significant cause of mortality in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COG-UK Consortium Hospital-Onset COVID-19 Infections (COG-UK HOCI) study aims to evaluate whether the use of rapid whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, supported by a novel probabilistic reporting methodology, can inform infection prevention and control (IPC) practice within NHS hospital settings.

DESIGN

Multicentre, prospective, interventional, superiority study.

SETTING

14 participating NHS hospitals over winter-spring 2020/2021 in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible patients must be admitted to hospital with first-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive test result >48 hour from time of admission, where COVID-19 diagnosis not suspected on admission. The projected sample size is 2380 patients.

INTERVENTION

The intervention is the return of a sequence report, within 48 hours in one phase (rapid local lab processing) and within 5-10 days in a second phase (mimicking central lab), comparing the viral genome from an eligible study participant with others within and outside the hospital site.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes are incidence of Public Health England (PHE)/IPC-defined SARS-CoV-2 hospital-acquired infection during the baseline and two interventional phases, and proportion of hospital-onset cases with genomic evidence of transmission linkage following implementation of the intervention where such linkage was not suspected by initial IPC investigation. Secondary outcomes include incidence of hospital outbreaks, with and without sequencing data; actual and desirable changes to IPC actions; periods of healthcare worker (HCW) absence. Health economic analysis will be conducted to determine cost benefit of the intervention. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews with HCWs will be conducted alongside the study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN50212645. Pre-results stage. This manuscript is based on protocol V.6.0. 2 September 2021.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Anti-Spike Antibody Levels Following Second Dose of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BNT162b2 Vaccine in Residents of Long-term Care Facilities in England (VIVALDI)

General population studies have shown strong humoral response following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination with subsequent waning of anti-spike antibody levels. Vaccine-induced immune responses are often attenuated in frail and older populations, but published data are scarce. We measured SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike antibody levels in long-term care facility residents and staff following a second vaccination dose with Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech. Vaccination elicited robust antibody responses in older residents, suggesting comparable levels of vaccine-induced immunity to that in the general population. Antibody levels are higher after Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination but fall more rapidly compared to Oxford-AstraZeneca recipients and are enhanced by prior infection in both groups.

A feasibility study evaluating the uptake, effectiveness and acceptability of routine screening of pregnant migrants for latent tuberculosis infection in antenatal care: a research protocol

INTRODUCTION

Globally, tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in women of reproductive age and there is high risk of reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in pregnancy. The uptake of routine screening of migrants for LTBI in the UK in primary care is low. Antenatal care is a novel setting which could improve uptake and can lend insight into the feasibility and acceptability of offering opt-out screening for LTBI.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an observational feasibility study with a nested qualitative component. The setting will be the antenatal clinics in three hospitals in East London, UK . Inclusion criteria are pregnant migrant women aged 16-35 years attending antenatal clinics who are from countries with a TB incidence of greater than 150/100 000 including sub-Saharan Africa, and who have been in the UK for less than 5 years. Participants will be offered LTBI screening with an opt-out interferon gamma release assay blood test, and be invited to complete a questionnaire. Both participants and healthcare providers will be invited to participate in semistructured interviews or focus groups to evaluate understanding, feasibility and acceptability of routine opt-out LTBI screening. The primary analysis will focus on estimating the uptake of the screening programme along with the corresponding 95% CI. Secondary analysis will focus on estimating the test positivity. Qualitative analysis will evaluate the acceptability of offering routine opt-out LTBI screening to participants and healthcare providers.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received the following approvals: Health Research Authority (IRAS 247388) and National Health Service Ethics Committee (19/LO/0557). The results will be made available locally to antenatal clinics and primary care physicians, nationally to NHS England and Public Health England and internationally through conferences and journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04098341.

Isisekelo Sempilo study protocol for the effectiveness of HIV prevention embedded in sexual health with or without peer navigator support (Thetha Nami) to reduce prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst adolescents and young adults in rural KwaZulu-Natal: a 2 × 2 factorial randomised controlled trial

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) through universal test and treat (UTT) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) substantially reduces HIV-related mortality, morbidity and incidence. Effective individual-level prevention modalities have not translated into population-level impact in southern Africa due to sub-optimal coverage among adolescents and youth who are hard to engage. We aim to investigate the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary population level effectiveness of HIV prevention services with or without peer support to reduce prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst adolescents and young adults in KwaZulu-Natal.

Methods

We are conducting a 2 × 2 factorial trial among young men and women aged 16–29 years, randomly selected from the Africa Health Research Institute demographic surveillance area. Participants are randomly allocated to one of four intervention combinations: 1) Standard of Care (SOC): nurse-led services for HIV testing plus ART if positive or PrEP for those eligible and negative; 2) Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH): Baseline self-collected vaginal and urine samples with study-organized clinic appointments for results, treatment and delivery of HIV testing, ART and PrEP integrated with SRH services; 3) Peer-support: Study referral of participants to a peer navigator to assess their health, social and educational needs and provide risk-informed HIV prevention, including facilitating clinic attendance; or 4) SRH + peer-support.

The primary outcomes for effectiveness are: (1) the proportion of individuals with infectious HIV at 12 months and (2) uptake of risk-informed comprehensive HIV prevention services within 60 days of enrolment. At 12 months, all participants will be contacted at home and the study team will collect a dried blood spot for HIV ELISA and HIV viral load testing.

Discussion

This trial will enable us to understand the relative importance of SRH and peer support in creating demand for effective and risk informed biomedical HIV prevention and preliminary data on their effectiveness on reducing the prevalence of transmissible HIV amongst all adolescents and youth.

Trial registration

Trial Registry: clincialtrials.gov. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04532307. Registered: March 2020.

Comprehensive Anaemia Programme and Personalized Therapies (CAPPT): protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial testing the effect women's groups, home counselling and iron supplementation on haemoglobin in pregnancy in southern Nepal

BACKGROUND

Anaemia in pregnancy remains prevalent in Nepal and causes severe adverse health outcomes.

METHODS

This non-blinded cluster-randomised controlled trial in the plains of Nepal has two study arms: (1) Control: routine antenatal care (ANC); (2) Home visiting, iron supplementation, Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) groups, plus routine ANC. Participants, including women in 54 non-contiguous clusters (mean 2582; range 1299-4865 population) in Southern Kapilbastu district, are eligible if they consent to menstrual monitoring, are resident, married, aged 13-49 years and able to respond to questions. After 1-2 missed menses and a positive pregnancy test, consenting women < 20 weeks' gestation, who plan to reside locally for most of the pregnancy, enrol into trial follow-up. Interventions comprise two home-counselling visits (at 12-21 and 22-26 weeks' gestation) with iron folic acid (IFA) supplement dosage tailored to women's haemoglobin concentration, plus monthly PLA women's group meetings using a dialogical problem-solving approach to engage pregnant women and their families. Home visits and PLA meetings will be facilitated by auxiliary nurse midwives. The hypothesis is as follows: Haemoglobin of women at 30 ± 2 weeks' gestation is ≥ 0.4 g/dL higher in the intervention arm than in the control. A sample of 842 women (421 per arm, average 15.6 per cluster) will provide 88% power, assuming SD 1.2, ICC 0.09 and CV of cluster size 0.27. Outcomes are captured at 30 ± 2 weeks gestation. Primary outcome is haemoglobin concentration (g/dL). Secondary outcomes are as follows: anaemia prevalence (%), mid-upper arm circumference (cm), mean probability of micronutrient adequacy (MPA) and number of ANC visits at a health facility. Indicators to assess pathways to impact include number of IFA tablets consumed during pregnancy, intake of energy (kcal/day) and dietary iron (mg/day), a score of bioavailability-enhancing behaviours and recall of one nutrition knowledge indicator. Costs and cost-effectiveness of the intervention will be estimated from a provider perspective. Using constrained randomisation, we allocated clusters to study arms, ensuring similarity with respect to cluster size, ethnicity, religion and distance to a health facility. Analysis is by intention-to-treat at the individual level, using mixed-effects regression.

DISCUSSION

Findings will inform Nepal government policy on approaches to increase adherence to IFA, improve diets and reduce anaemia in pregnancy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 12272130 .

Intimate physical contact between people from different households during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods study from a large, quasi-representative survey (Natsal-COVID)

OBJECTIVES

Physical distancing as a non-pharmaceutical intervention aims to reduce interactions between people to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Intimate physical contact outside the household (IPCOH) may expand transmission networks by connecting households. We aimed to explore whether intimacy needs impacted adherence to physical distancing following lockdown in Britain in March 2020.

METHODS

The Natsal-COVID web-panel survey (July-August 2020) used quota-sampling and weighting to achieve a quasi-representative population sample. We estimate reporting of IPCOH with a romantic/sexual partner in the 4 weeks prior to interview, describe the type of contact, identify demographic and behavioural factors associated with IPCOH and present age-adjusted ORs (aORs). Qualitative interviews (n=18) were conducted to understand the context, reasons and decision making around IPCOH.

RESULTS

Of 6654 participants aged 18-59 years, 9.9% (95% CI 9.1% to 10.6%) reported IPCOH. IPCOH was highest in those aged 18-24 (17.7%), identifying as gay or lesbian (19.5%), and in steady non-cohabiting relationships (56.3%). IPCOH was associated with reporting risk behaviours (eg, condomless sex, higher alcohol consumption). IPCOH was less likely among those reporting bad/very bad health (aOR 0.54; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.93) but more likely among those with COVID-19 symptoms and/or diagnosis (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.65). Two-thirds (64.4%) of IPCOH was reported as being within a support bubble. Qualitative interviews found that people reporting IPCOH deliberated over, and made efforts to mitigate, the risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Given 90% of people did not report IPCOH, this contact may not be a large additional contributor to SARS-CoV-2 transmission, although heterogeneity exists within the population. Public health messages need to recognise how single people and partners living apart balance sexual intimacy and relationship needs with adherence to control measures.

Effectiveness of conditional cash transfers (Afya credits incentive) to retain women in the continuum of care during pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period in Kenya: a cluster-randomised trial

OBJECTIVES

Given high maternal and child mortality rates, we assessed the impact of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to retain women in the continuum of care (antenatal care (ANC), delivery at facility, postnatal care (PNC) and child immunisation).

DESIGN

We conducted an unblinded 1:1 cluster-randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

48 health facilities in Siaya County, Kenya were randomised. The trial ran from May 2017 to December 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

2922 women were recruited to the control and 2522 to the intervention arm.

INTERVENTIONS

An electronic system recorded attendance and triggered payments to the participant's mobile for the intervention arm (US$4.5), and phone credit for the control arm (US$0.5). Eligibility criteria were resident in the catchment area and access to a mobile phone.

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

Primary outcomes were any ANC, delivery, any PNC between 4 and 12 months after delivery, childhood immunisation and referral attendance to other facilities for ANC or PNC. Given problems with the electronic system, primary outcomes were obtained from maternal clinic books if participants brought them to data extraction meetings (1257 (50%) of intervention and 1053 (36%) control arm participants). Attendance at referrals to other facilities is not reported because of limited data.

RESULTS

We found a significantly higher proportion of appointments attended for ANC (67% vs 60%, adjusted OR (aOR) 1.90; 95% CI 1.36 to 2.66) and child immunisation (88% vs 85%; aOR 1.74; 95% CI 1.10 to 2.77) in intervention than control arm. No intervention effect was seen considering delivery at the facility (90% vs 92%; aOR 0.58; 95% CI 0.25 to 1.33) and any PNC attendance (82% vs 81%; aOR 1.25; 95% CI 0.74 to 2.10) separately. The pooled OR across all attendance types was 1.64 (1.28 to 2.10).

CONCLUSIONS

Demand-side financing incentives, such as CCTs, can improve attendance for appointments. However, attention needs to be paid to the technology, the barriers that remain for delivery at facility and PNC visits and encouraging women to attend ANC visits within the recommended WHO timeframe.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03021070.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in four states of Nigeria in October 2020: A population-based household survey

The observed epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa has varied greatly from that in Europe and the United States, with much lower reported incidence. Population-based studies are needed to estimate true cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 to inform public health interventions. This study estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in four selected states in Nigeria in October 2020. We implemented a two-stage cluster sample household survey in four Nigerian states (Enugu, Gombe, Lagos, and Nasarawa) to estimate age-stratified prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. All individuals in sampled households were eligible for interview, blood draw, and nasal/oropharyngeal swab collection. We additionally tested participants for current/recent malaria infection. Seroprevalence estimates were calculated accounting for the complex survey design. Across all four states, 10,629 (96·5%) of 11,015 interviewed individuals provided blood samples. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 25·2% (95% CI 21·8-28·6) in Enugu State, 9·3% (95% CI 7·0-11·5) in Gombe State, 23·3% (95% CI 20·5-26·4) in Lagos State, and 18·0% (95% CI 14·4-21·6) in Nasarawa State. Prevalence of current/recent malaria infection ranged from 2·8% in Lagos to 45·8% in Gombe and was not significantly related to SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. The prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection in the four states during the survey period was 0·2% (95% CI 0·1-0·4). Approximately eight months after the first reported COVID-19 case in Nigeria, seroprevalence indicated infection levels 194 times higher than the 24,198 officially reported COVID-19 cases across the four states; however, most of the population remained susceptible to COVID-19 in October 2020.

Economic evaluation of a conditional cash transfer to retain women in the continuum of care during pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period in Kenya

There is limited evidence on the cost and cost-effectiveness of cash transfer programmes to improve maternal and child health in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries. This article presents the economic evaluation results of the Afya trial, assessing the costs, cost-effectiveness and equity impact of a demand-side financing intervention that promotes utilisation of maternal health services in rural Kenya. The cost of implementing the Afya intervention was estimated from a provider perspective. Cost data were collected prospectively from all implementing and non-implementing partners, and from health service providers. Cost-efficiency was analysed using cost-transfer ratios and cost per mother enrolled into the intervention. Cost-effectiveness was assessed as cost per additional eligible antenatal care visit as a result of the intervention, when compared with standard care. The equity impact of the intervention was also assessed using a multidimensional poverty index (MPI). Programme cost per mother enrolled was International (INT)$313 of which INT$ 92 consisted of direct transfer payments, suggesting a cost transfer ratio of 2.4. Direct healthcare utilisation costs reflected a small proportion of total provider costs, amounting to INT$ 21,756. The total provider cost of the Afya intervention was INT$808,942. The provider cost per additional eligible ANC visit was INT$1,035. This is substantially higher than estimated annual health expenditure per capita at the county level of $INT61. MPI estimates suggest around 27.4% of participant households were multidimensionally poor. MPI quintiles did not significantly modify the intervention effect, suggesting the impact of the intervention did not differ by socioeconomic status. Based on the available evidence, it is not possible to conclude whether the Afya intervention was cost-effective. A simple comparison with current health expenditure in Siaya county suggests that the intervention as implemented is likely to be unaffordable. Consideration needs to be given to strengthening the supply-side of the cash transfer intervention before replication or uptake at scale.

Prevalence and duration of detectable SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies in staff and residents of long-term care facilities over the first year of the pandemic (VIVALDI study): prospective cohort study in England

Background

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) have reported high SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and related mortality, but the proportion of infected people among those who have survived, and duration of the antibody response to natural infection, is unknown. We determined the prevalence and stability of nucleocapsid antibodies (the standard assay for detection of previous infection) in staff and residents in LTCFs in England.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort study of residents 65 years or older and of staff 65 years or younger in 201 LTCFs in England between March 1, 2020, and May 7, 2021. Participants were linked to a unique pseudo-identifier based on their UK National Health Service identification number. Serial blood samples were tested for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein using the Abbott ARCHITECT i-system (Abbott, Maidenhead, UK) immunoassay. Primary endpoints were prevalence and cumulative incidence of antibody positivity, which were weighted to the LTCF population. Incidence rate of loss of antibodies (seroreversion) was estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves.

Findings

9488 samples were included, 8636 (91·0%) of which could be individually linked to 1434 residents and 3288 staff members. The cumulative incidence of nucleocapsid seropositivity was 34·6% (29·6–40·0) in residents and 26·1% (23·0–29·5) in staff over 11 months. 239 (38·6%) residents and 503 women (81·3%) were included in the antibody-waning analysis, and median follow-up was 149 days (IQR 107–169). The incidence rate of seroreversion was 2·1 per 1000 person-days at risk, and median time to reversion was 242·5 days.

Interpretation

At least a quarter of staff and a third of surviving residents were infected with SAR-CoV-2 during the first two waves of the pandemic in England. Nucleocapsid-specific antibodies often become undetectable within the first year following infection, which is likely to lead to marked underestimation of the true proportion of people with previous infection. Given that natural infection might act to boost vaccine responses, better assays to identify natural infection should be developed.

Funding

UK Government Department of Health and Social Care.

Changes in COVID-19 outbreak severity and duration in long-term care facilities following vaccine introduction, England, November 2020 to June 2021

We describe the impact of changing epidemiology and vaccine introduction on characteristics of COVID-19 outbreaks in 330 long-term care facilities (LTCF) in England between November 2020 and June 2021. As vaccine coverage in LTCF increased and national incidence declined, the total number of outbreaks and outbreak severity decreased across the LTCF. The number of infected cases per outbreak decreased by 80.6%, while the proportion of outbreaks affecting staff only increased. Our study supports findings of vaccine effectiveness in LTCF.

Effectiveness of participatory women's groups scaled up by the public health system to improve birth outcomes in Jharkhand, eastern India: a pragmatic cluster non-randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

The WHO recommends community mobilisation with women's groups practising participatory learning and action (PLA) to improve neonatal survival in high-mortality settings. This intervention has not been evaluated at scale with government frontline workers.

METHODS

We did a pragmatic cluster non-randomised controlled trial of women's groups practising PLA scaled up by government front-line workers in Jharkhand, eastern India. Groups prioritised maternal and newborn health problems, identified strategies to address them, implemented the strategies and evaluated progress. Intervention coverage and quality were tracked state-wide. Births and deaths to women of reproductive age were monitored in six of Jharkhand's 24 districts: three purposively allocated to an early intervention start (2017) and three to a delayed start (2019). We monitored vital events prospectively in 100 purposively selected units of 10 000 population each, during baseline (1 March 2017-31 August 2017) and evaluation periods (1 September 2017-31 August 2019). The primary outcome was neonatal mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 51 949 deliveries and conducted interviews for 48 589 (93.5%). At baseline, neonatal mortality rates (NMR) were 36.9 per 1000 livebirths in the early arm and 39.2 in the delayed arm. Over 24 months of intervention, the NMR was 29.1 in the early arm and 39.2 in the delayed arm, corresponding to a 24% reduction in neonatal mortality (adjusted OR (AOR) 0.76, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.98), including 26% among the most deprived (AOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.95). Twenty of Jharkhand's 24 districts achieved adequate meeting coverage and quality. In these 20 districts, the intervention saved an estimated 11 803 newborn lives (min: 1026-max: 20 527) over 42 months, and cost 41 international dollars per life year saved.

CONCLUSION

Participatory women's groups scaled up by the Indian public health system reduced neonatal mortality equitably in a largely rural state and were highly cost-effective, warranting scale-up in other high-mortality rural settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN99422435.