Long-term global availability of food: continued abundance or new scarcity?

Assessment of long-term phosphorus budget changes influenced by anthropogenic factors in a coastal catchment of Osaka Bay

Phosphorus usage is irreplaceable in agriculture; however, its excessive use leads to wastage of invaluable resources and significant soil surplus. Agronomic soil phosphorus surplus in Asian regions has a much higher level than the global average. And with rapid urbanization and population growth in the recent decades, Asian countries have seen a rise in environmental pollution levels also. This study assessed the detailed phosphorus budget in the Yamato River catchment, an urbanized coastal catchment in Asia, from 1940s to 2010s using Soil and Water Assessment Tool, comprehensively analyzed the effect of anthropogenic factors on long-term phosphorus loading and agronomic soil phosphorus balance. The results showed the peak period of total phosphorus loading and agronomic soil phosphorus surplus occurred in 1970s, at 895 tons/year and 36.6 kg/ha, respectively. The major reasons for increased phosphorus loading and soil surplus during 1940-1970 were rapid population growth and increased fertilizer usage, respectively. Since the 1980s, the construction of wastewater treatment system and reduction in agricultural land contributed to environmental improvement. These anthropogenic factors had a much stronger impact on phosphorus budget than climate change in the study catchment. Soil phosphorus balance is affected by a combination of factors, such as soil properties, fertilizer usage and applied schedule, precipitation event, and crop types. And soil phosphorus surplus may be severely overestimated if the non-point source loss due to precipitation factor is not fully considered.

The future of farming: Who will produce our food?

Achieving SDG2 (zero hunger) in a situation of rapid global population growth requires a continued focus on food production. Farming not merely needs to sustainably produce nutritious diets, but should also provide livelihoods for farmers, while retaining natural ecosystems and services. Rather than focusing on production principles, this article explores the interrelations between farms and farming systems in the global food system. Evaluating farming systems around the world, we reveal a bewildering diversity. While family farms predominate, these range in size from less than 0.1 ha to more than 10,000 ha, and from hand hoe use to machine-based cultivation, enabling one person to plant more than 500 ha in a day. Yet, farming in different parts of the world is highly interdependent, not least because prices paid for farm produce are largely determined by global markets. Furthermore, the economic viability of farming is a problem, globally. We highlight trends in major regions of the world and explore possible trajectories for the future and ask: Who are the farmers of the future? Changing patterns of land ownership, rental and exchange mean that the concept of ‘what is a farm’ becomes increasingly fluid. Next to declining employment and rural depopulation, we also foresee more environmentally-friendly, less external input dependent, regionalised production systems. This may require the reversal of a global trend towards increasing specialisation to a recoupling of arable and livestock farming, not least for the resilience it provides. It might also require a slow-down or reversal of the widespread trend of scale enlargement in agriculture. Next to this trend of scale enlargement, small farms persist in Asia: consolidation of farms proceeds at a snail’s pace in South-east Asia and 70% of farms in India are ‘ultra-small’ – less than 0.05 ha. Also in Africa, where we find smallholder farms are much smaller than often assumed (< 1 ha), farming households are often food insecure. A raft of pro-poor policies and investments are needed to stimulate small-scale agriculture as part of a broader focus on rural development to address persistent poverty and hunger. Smallholder farms will remain an important source of food and income, and a social safety net in absence of alternative livelihood security. But with limited possibilities for smallholders to ‘step-up’, the agricultural engine of growth appears to be broken. Smallholder agriculture cannot deliver the rate of economic growth currently assumed by many policy initiatives in Africa.

Effects of Loblolly Pine Biochar and Wood Vinegar on Poultry Litter Nutrients and Microbial Abundance

Biochar, wood vinegar, and poultry litter are waste streams that can be utilized as soil amendments and fertilizers. However, poultry litter releases several pollutants through nutrient leaching and carries heavy microbial loads, including potential human pathogens. Improving nutrient retention and reducing microbial load in poultry litter may help protect environmental and human health and improve its value as a soil amendment. The objectives of this study were to determine how blending varying proportions of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) biochar, wood vinegar, and poultry litter affected nutrient profiles and microbial abundance over time. Biochar inclusion rates were 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20%, and wood vinegar was applied at 2% w/w. Samples were taken at Day 0, 57, and 112 to measure nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, pH, total fungi, and total bacteria. Nutrient levels generally decreased with increasing biochar level; however, biochar inclusion rates of 10% and 20% retained nitrogen and phosphorus and exhibited improved physical properties. Overall, adding wood vinegar decreased nutrient concentrations and showed a biocidal effect for bacteria and fungi. Bacteria and fungi showed different relationships with biochar inclusion rates, with fungi preferring higher biochar inclusion rates and bacteria flourishing at lower biochar inclusion rates.

Reduction in global habitat loss from fossil-fuel-dependent increases in cropland productivity

Terrestrial biodiversity loss and climate change, driven mainly by loss of habitat to agriculture and fossil fuel (FF) use, respectively, are considered among the world's greatest environmental threats. However, FF-dependent technologies are currently essential for manufacturing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (SNFs) and synthetic pesticides (SPs) critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which reduces habitat loss. Fossil fuel use increases CO₂ levels, further enhancing agricultural productivity. Based on estimates of global increases in yields from SNFs, SPs, and atmospheric CO₂ fertilization, I estimated that FF-dependent technologies are responsible for at least 62.5% of current global food production (GFP) from cropland. Thus, if FF use is eschewed in the future, maintaining current GFP means croplands would have to increase from 12.2% of global land area (GLA) excluding Antarctica to 32.7%. The additional 20.4% of GLA needed exceeds habitat lost currently to cropland (12.2% of GLA) and cumulative conservation areas globally (14.6% of GLA). Thus, although eliminating FF use could reduce climate change, its unintended consequences may be to significantly exacerbate biodiversity loss and indirectly increase food costs, reducing food security which, moreover, disproportionately affects the poor. Although it may be possible to replace SNFs and SPs with FF-free technologies, such substitutes have not yet been demonstrated to be sufficiently economical or efficient. In the interim, meeting global food demand and keeping food prices affordable would increase habitat conversion and food prices. These trade-offs should be considered in analyses of climate change policies.

Phosphorus mobilization from intact soil monoliths flooded under simulated summer versus spring snowmelt with intermittent freeze-thaw conditions

Enhanced phosphorus (P) release from flooded, anaerobic soils has been extensively studied under summer temperatures but not under cold temperatures with intermittent freeze-thaw events. We investigated the temperature and freeze-thaw effects during flooding on the release of P to floodwater from soil monoliths (15-cm depth) collected from eight agricultural fields in Manitoba. Soil monoliths were flooded with reverse osmosis water and incubated for 56 d under simulated summer flooding (SSF; 22 ± 1 °C) or snowmelt flooding with intermittent freeze-thaw (IFT; 4 ± 1 °C with intermittent freezing) in triplicates. Redox potential (Eh), pore water and floodwater dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentrations, pH, and concentrations of Ca, Mg, Fe, and Mn were determined weekly. In seven soils, Eh decreased rapidly with days after flooding (DAF) under SSF to values <200 mV but not under IFT. Both pore water and floodwater DRP concentrations significantly increased with DAF in all soils under SSF and in seven soils under IFT. Although DRP concentrations were consistently greater under SSF than IFT in four soils, other soils had similar concentrations at certain DAF. Significant relationships between ion concentrations and redox status that fitted both IFT and SSF data in most soils suggest that similar redox-driven mechanisms are responsible for the P release; however, less P was released under IFT than under SSF because soils were not severely reduced under IFT. Substantial P release in a few soils under IFT appeared to be unrelated to redox status, suggesting other P release mechanisms that are not redox driven.

At the core of the socio-ecological transition: Agroecosystem energy fluxes in Austria 1830-2010

Analyses of energy efficiency in biomass production offer important insights in the context of sustainable land management and biomass production. However, much of the previous research on the topic has focused on the energy efficiency of either food or energy provision. Only recently, comprehensive analyses at the total agroecosystem level have been operationalized, studying long-term change in agroecosystem energetics in the course of the socio-ecological transition. We contribute to this line of research by offering an empirical assessment of agroecosystem energetics for the case of Austria, covering the period 1830-2010 at an annual resolution. We present a quantitative assessment of energy inputs, outputs and internal energy fluxes of Austria's agroecosystem, including crop production, livestock production and forestry, as well as energy return on investment indicators. We identify three major periods: (1) "pre-industrial land-use intensification" (1830-1914) is characterized by moderate agricultural growth based on increased biomass recirculation, declining wood harvest, and, probably, slightly declining energy returns on investments. (2) From 1918 to 1985, "industrialization of land use and the green revolution" exhibits a substitution of labor by modern energy inputs, while livestock continued to rely greatly on domestic biomass. (3) "Industrialized extensification and environmental awareness" (1986-2010) features increasing energy efficiency due to declines in livestock numbers, a shift towards forestry, and a rising amount of final products from croplands at stable energy inputs. We discuss these periods in the context of changes in both ecological impacts and social metabolism, and identify trade-offs among food and bioenergy provision.

Analyzing and modelling the effect of long-term fertilizer management on crop yield and soil organic carbon in China

This study analyzes the influence of various fertilizer management practices on crop yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) based on the long-term field observations and modelling. Data covering 11 years from 8 long-term field trials were included, representing a range of typical soil, climate, and agro-ecosystems in China. The process-based model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) was used to simulate the response of crop yield and SOC to various fertilization regimes. The results showed that the yield and SOC under additional manure application treatment were the highest while the yield under control treatment was the lowest (30%-50% of NPK yield) at all sites. The SOC in northern sites appeared more dynamic than that in southern sites. The variance partitioning analysis (VPA) showed more variance of crop yield could be explained by the fertilization factor (42%), including synthetic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) fertilizers, and fertilizer NPK combined with manure. The interactive influence of soil (total N, P, K, and available N, P, K) and climate factors (mean annual temperature and precipitation) determine the largest part of the SOC variance (32%). EPIC performs well in simulating both the dynamics of crop yield (NRMSE = 32% and 31% for yield calibration and validation) and SOC (NRMSE = 13% and 19% for SOC calibration and validation) under diverse fertilization practices in China. EPIC can assist in predicting the impacts of different fertilization regimes on crop growth and soil carbon dynamics, and contribute to the optimization of fertilizer management for different areas in China.

Excess Lead-210 and Plutonium-239+240: Two suitable radiogenic soil erosion tracers for mountain grassland sites

The expected growing population and challenges associated with globalisation will increase local food and feed demands and enhance the pressure on local and regional upland soil resources. In light of these potential future developments it is necessary to define sustainable land use and tolerable soil loss rates with methods applicable and adapted to mountainous areas. Fallout-radionuclides (FRNs) are proven techniques to increase our knowledge about the status and resilience of agro-ecosystems. However, the use of the Caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) method is complicated in the European Alps due to its heterogeneous input and the timing of the Chernobyl fallout, which occurred during a few single rain events on partly snow covered ground. Other radioisotopic techniques have been proposed to overcome these limitations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the suitability of excess Lead-210 (²¹⁰Pb_ex) and Plutonium-239+240 (^239+240Pu) as soil erosion tracers for three different grassland management types at the steep slopes (slope angles between 35 and 38°) located in the Central Swiss Alps. All three FRNs identified pastures as having the highest mean (± standard deviation) net soil loss of -6.7 ± 1.1, -9.8 ± 6.8 and -7.0 ± 5.2 Mg ha^-1 yr^-1 for ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb_ex and ^239+240Pu, respectively. A mean soil loss of -5.7 ± 1.5, -5.2 ± 1.5 and-5.6 ± 2.1 was assessed for hayfields and the lowest rates were established for pastures with dwarf-shrubs (-5.2 ± 2.5, -4.5 ± 2.5 and -3.3 ± 2.4 Mg ha^-1 yr^-1 for ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb_ex and ^239+240Pu, respectively). These rates, evaluated at sites with an elevated soil erosion risk exceed the respective soil production rates. Among the three FRN methods used, ^239+240Pu appears as the most promising tracer in terms of measurement uncertainty and reduced small scale variability (CV of 13%). Despite a higher level of uncertainty, ²¹⁰Pb_ex produced comparable results, with a wide range of erosion rates sensitive to changes in grassland management. ²¹⁰Pb_ex can then be as well considered as a suitable soil tracer to investigate alpine agroecosystems.

Enhancing genetic gain in the era of molecular breeding

As one of the important concepts in conventional quantitative genetics and breeding, genetic gain can be defined as the amount of increase in performance that is achieved annually through artificial selection. To develop pro ducts that meet the increasing demand of mankind, especially for food and feed, in addition to various industrial uses, breeders are challenged to enhance the potential of genetic gain continuously, at ever higher rates, while they close the gaps that remain between the yield potential in breeders' demonstration trials and the actual yield in farmers' fields. Factors affecting genetic gain include genetic variation available in breeding materials, heritability for traits of interest, selection intensity, and the time required to complete a breeding cycle. Genetic gain can be improved through enhancing the potential and closing the gaps, which has been evolving and complemented with modern breeding techniques and platforms, mainly driven by molecular and genomic tools, combined with improved agronomic practice. Several key strategies are reviewed in this article. Favorable genetic variation can be unlocked and created through molecular and genomic approaches including mutation, gene mapping and discovery, and transgene and genome editing. Estimation of heritability can be improved by refining field experiments through well-controlled and precisely assayed environmental factors or envirotyping, particularly for understanding and controlling spatial heterogeneity at the field level. Selection intensity can be significantly heightened through improvements in the scale and precision of genotyping and phenotyping. The breeding cycle time can be shortened by accelerating breeding procedures through integrated breeding approaches such as marker-assisted selection and doubled haploid development. All the strategies can be integrated with other widely used conventional approaches in breeding programs to enhance genetic gain. More transdisciplinary approaches, team breeding, will be required to address the challenge of maintaining a plentiful and safe food supply for future generations. New opportunities for enhancing genetic gain, a high efficiency breeding pipeline, and broad-sense genetic gain are also discussed prospectively.

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

Physiological Mechanisms Underlying the High-Grain Yield and High-Nitrogen Use Efficiency of Elite Rice Varieties under a Low Rate of Nitrogen Application in China

Selecting rice varieties with a high nitrogen (N) use efficiency (NUE) is the best approach to reduce N fertilizer application in rice production and is one of the objectives of the Green Super Rice (GSR) Project in China. However, the performance of elite candidate GSR varieties under low N supply remains unclear. In the present study, differences in the grain yield and NUE of 13 and 14 candidate varieties with two controls were determined at a N rate of 100 kg ha(-1) in field experiments in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The grain yield for all of the rice varieties ranged from 8.67 to 11.09 t ha(-1), except for a japonica rice variety YG29, which had a grain yield of 6.42 t ha(-1). HY549 and YY4949 produced the highest grain yield, reflecting a higher biomass production and harvest index in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Total N uptake at maturity (TNPM) ranged from 144 to 210 kg ha(-1), while the nitrogen use efficiency for grain production (NUEg) ranged from 35.2 to 62.0 kg kg(-1). Both TNPM and NUEg showed a significant quadratic correlation with grain yield, indicating that it is possible to obtain high grain yield and NUEg with the reduction of TNPM. The correlation between N-related parameters and yield-related traits suggests that promoting pre-heading growth could increase TNPM, while high biomass accumulation during the grain filling period and large panicles are important for a higher NUEg. In addition, there were significant and negative correlations between the NUEg and N concentrations in leaf, stem, and grain tissues at maturity. Further improvements in NUEg require a reduction in the stem N concentration but not the leaf N concentration. The daily grain yield was the only parameter that significantly and positively correlated with both TNPMand NUEg. This study determined variations in the grain yield and NUE of elite candidate GSR rice varieties and provided plant traits that could be used as selection criteria in breeding N-efficient rice varieties.

Global hunger: a challenge to agricultural, food, and nutritional sciences

Hunger has been a concern for generations and has continued to plague hundreds of millions of people around the world. Although many efforts have been devoted to reduce hunger, challenges such as growing competitions for natural resources, emerging climate changes and natural disasters, poverty, illiteracy, and diseases are posing threats to food security and intensifying the hunger crisis. Concerted efforts of scientists to improve agricultural and food productivity, technology, nutrition, and education are imperative to facilitate appropriate strategies for defeating hunger and malnutrition. This paper provides some aspects of world hunger issues and summarizes the efforts and measures aimed to alleviate food problems from the food and nutritional sciences perspectives. The prospects and constraints of some implemented strategies for alleviating hunger and achieving sustainable food security are also discussed. This comprehensive information source could provide insights into the development of a complementary framework for dealing with the global hunger issue.

From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability

Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965–2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (<2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52% to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.

Assessing the impacts of livestock production on biodiversity in rangeland ecosystems

Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss.

Optimal management of fertiliser and stocking rate in temperate grazing systems

Phosphorus (P) fertilisers are one of the key tools available for increasing pasture production and the profitability of grazing enterprises. However, recent rapid changes in fertiliser price have increased the importance of developing optimal management strategies for applying P fertiliser and setting stocking rates. We applied a novel combination of process-based grazing systems modelling and randomised cash flow analyses to examine how changes in fertiliser price affect optimal fertiliser application rates and stocking rates for sheep grazing systems in south-eastern Australia, simultaneously taking into account long-term economic viability and environmental sustainability. We used ‘GrassGro’, a grazing systems decision support tool, to simulate three sheep enterprise types (Merino wethers, Merino ewes, crossbred ewes) at two locations (Hamilton, Victoria; Bookham, New South Wales). Gross margins from each year simulated in GrassGro (1966–2007) were randomised 500 times and input to a cash flow analysis that identified the financially optimal stocking rate for a range of fertiliser applications and the financial risk frontiers (combinations of stocking rate and fertiliser input for which the enterprise becomes financially unviable). For all enterprises examined at both locations, the optimal combinations of stocking rate and fertiliser application rate did not vary markedly as fertiliser price changed. Regardless of enterprise type or location, the fertiliser application rate at which the highest gross margins were achieved provided the greatest range of stocking rates that were both financially viable and environmentally sustainable. Increases in fertiliser price reduced the combinations of stocking rate and fertiliser application rate that were viable in the long term, emphasising the importance of well informed grazing management decisions.

Integrated farming: why organic farmers should use transgenic crops

The concept of organic farming is summarised and compared as an example to farming with biotechnology-derived crops. If done within an ecological concept, both methods can be seen as environmentally acceptable. Organic farming does not offer consistent arguments for the rejection of transgenic crops. Some arguments (from genomics to biodiversity) are discussed in order to demonstrate that the contrast between both farming systems is rated too high and that it is possible to overcome the divide. In this way the ground is prepared for a proposal on how to merge those otherwise incompatible agricultural management systems, a proposal that also will have to build on a new concept of sustainability. It will be dealt with in the second part of the article in the next issue of New Biotechnology.