Determining the efficiency path to universal health coverage: cost-effectiveness thresholds for 174 countries based on growth in life expectancy and health expenditures

The Cost Effectiveness of Adjunctive Treatments for Proton Pump Inhibitor-Refractory Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Half of patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) experience persistent symptoms while on proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), thus driving efforts to develop novel adjunctive therapies for PPI-refractory GERD. An economic analysis was performed to establish at what cost and efficacy such potential medications are likely to become cost effective in clinical practice.

METHODS

A Markov decision model was used to examine a hypothetical cohort of patients being evaluated for PPI-refractory GERD in the USA. The model compared 3 strategies: (1) usual care (i.e., upfront diagnostic testing with upper endoscopy ± ambulatory pH testing); (2) use of a PPI-adjunctive therapy after positive ambulatory pH testing; and (3) empiric use of a PPI-adjunctive therapy (i.e., diagnostic testing only after failing empiric treatment). The primary outcome was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (third-party payer perspective) over a 10-year time horizon using a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000/QALY.

RESULTS

In two-way sensitivity analyses varying the cost and effectiveness of the PPI-adjunctive therapy, most combinations revealed that use of the medication after positive pH testing was the most cost-effective approach. Empiric treatment was the preferred strategy only when the therapy was highly efficacious (≥ 87.5% response rate) and low cost (≤ $109/month). Use of PPI-adjunctive treatments were not cost effective when the cost exceeded $1150/month.

CONCLUSION

Use of PPI-adjunctive therapies in those with persistent GERD symptoms may become cost effective when guided by ambulatory pH tests. These data can guide investigators, industry, and payers as they develop, validate, and price new treatments for PPI-refractory GERD.

Impact of perioperative diagnostic tools on clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness in parathyroid surgery: a decision model-based analysis

OBJECTIVES

Preoperative and intraoperative diagnostic tools influence the surgical management of primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT), whereby their performance of classification varies considerably for the two common causes of PHPT: solitary adenomas and multiglandular disease. A consensus on the use of such diagnostic tools for optimal perioperative management of all PHPT patients has not been reached.

DESIGN

A decision tree model was constructed to estimate and compare the clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of preoperative imaging modalities and intraoperative parathyroid hormone (ioPTH) monitoring criteria in a 21-year time horizon with a 3% discount rate. The robustness of the model was assessed by conducting a one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

SETTING

The US healthcare system.

POPULATION

A hypothetical population consisting of 5000 patients with sporadic, symptomatic or asymptomatic PHPT.

INTERVENTIONS

Preoperative and intraoperative diagnostic modalities for parathyroidectomy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), net monetary benefits (NMBs) and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, four-dimensional (4D) CT was the least expensive strategy with US$10 276 and 15.333 QALYs. Ultrasound and 99mTc-Sestamibi single-photon-emission CT/CT were both dominated strategies while 18F-fluorocholine positron emission tomography was cost-effective with an NMB of US$416 considering a willingness to pay a threshold of US$95 958. The application of ioPTH monitoring with the Vienna criterion decreased the rate of reoperations from 10.50 to 0.58 per 1000 patients compared to not using ioPTH monitoring. Due to an increased rate of bilateral neck explorations from 257.45 to 347.45 per 1000 patients, it was not cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

4D-CT is the most cost-effective modality for the preoperative localisation of solitary parathyroid adenomas and multiglandular disease. The use of ioPTH monitoring is not cost-effective, but to minimise clinical complications, the Miami criterion should be applied for suspected solitary adenomas and the Vienna criterion for multiglandular disease.

Re-evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in 112 low-income and middle-income countries in children younger than 5 years: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae has been estimated to cause 9·18 million cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and invasive non-pneumonia non-meningitis disease and 318 000 deaths among children younger than 5 years in 2015. We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction.

METHODS

We updated our existing pseudodynamic model to estimate the impact of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 112 low-income and middle-income countries by adapting our previously published pseudodynamic model with new country-specific evidence on vaccine coverage, burden, and post-introduction vaccine impact from WHO-UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage and a global burden study. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and cases averted were estimated for children younger than 5 years born between 2000 and 2030. We used specific PCV coverage in each country and a hypothetical scenario in which coverage increased to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) levels. We conducted probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

FINDINGS

Using specific vaccine coverage in countries, we estimated that PCV13 could prevent 697 000 (95% credibility interval 359 000-1 040 000) deaths, 46·0 (24·0-68·9) million DALYs, and 131 (89·0-172) million cases in 112 countries between 2000 and 2030. PCV was estimated to prevent 5·3% of pneumococcal deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2000-30. The incremental cost of vaccination would be I$851 (510-1530) per DALY averted. If PCV coverage were increased to DTP coverage in 2020, PCV13 could prevent an additional 146 000 (75 500-219 000) deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The inclusion of real-world evidence from lower-income settings revealed that delays in PCV roll-out globally and low PCV coverage have cost many lives. Countries with delays in vaccine introduction or low vaccine coverage have experienced many PCV-preventable deaths. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly scaling up PCV to achieve high coverage and maximise vaccine impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Societal Preferences for Subsidizing Treatments Targeting Patients With Advanced Illness: A Discrete Choice Experiment

OBJECTIVES

Cost-effectiveness analyses are increasingly used to inform subvention decisions for moderately life extending treatments but apply several simplifying assumptions that may be inconsistent with public preferences. Contrary to standard assumptions, we hypothesize that societal willingness to allocate public funding toward these treatments is (1) diminishing for incremental improvements in survival and quality of life (QoL) and (2) greater for subvention policies that exclude the oldest old (>80 years).

METHODS

We tested these hypotheses using a web-based discrete choice experiment (n = 425) in Singapore. In each of 5 questions, respondents were shown 2 hypothetical treatments targeting patients with an expected prognosis of 2 months at very poor QoL and asked which treatment they wanted the government to subsidize, if any. Treatments were defined by 4 attributes: cost to the government, age of beneficiaries, expected gain in survival (2-12 months), and QoL (poor, fair, and good).

RESULTS

Latent class models were used to analyze results. Results revealed 2 classes. In the majority class (69.7% of sample), respondents value incremental gains in survival and QoL at a diminishing rate. Their willingness to allocate public funding estimates (Singapore dollars 16 825-91 027 per patient per month) were much higher than traditional cost-effectiveness thresholds. In the second class, respondents were unwilling to subsidize treatments offering less than 2 months of life extension or poor QoL. Neither class preferred subvention policies that exclude the oldest old.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the Singapore government should consider cost-effectiveness thresholds that rise with increases in life extension. Age-based restrictions should not be imposed.

Challenges around diagnosis of early onset colorectal cancer, and the case for screening

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most diagnosed cancer in the world, with an estimated 1.93 million cases diagnosed in 2020. While the overall CRC incidence in many countries is falling there has been a dramatic increase in CRC in those aged under 50 (early onset colorectal cancer, EOCRC). The reason for this increase in EOCRC is unknown. As the best predictor of survival is stage at diagnosis, early diagnosis is likely to be beneficial and population screening may facilitate this.

METHODS

A narrative review of the literature was undertaken.

RESULTS

Improving time to diagnosis in symptomatic patients is beneficial. However, by the time symptoms develop, over a third of patients already have metastatic disease. Screening asymptomatic patients (with Faecal Immunochemical test (FIT) and colonoscopy) has been proved to be effective in older patients (>60 years). In younger populations, the decreasing incidence rates of CRC previously made cost effectiveness, compliance and therefore benefit questionable. Now, with the increasing incidence of CRC in those under 50 years of age, modelling suggests screening with FIT and colonoscopy is cost effective from 40 years of age. There is evidence that some countries screening below 50 have prevented the rise in EOCRC incidence. Additionally the use of new and novel non-invasive biomarkers may also be able to improve the accuracy of screening asymptomatic patients.

CONCLUSION

Diagnosis of EOCRC once symptoms develop is often too late, and screening patients from age 40 is the best way to improve outcomes in this group.

Evaluation of the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention strategies for infants in Argentina

BACKGROUND

New interventions are available for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in young infants. We aimed to assess the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of using a long-acting monoclonal antibody (RSV mAb) or maternal RSV vaccine in the Argentine context.

METHODS

We used a static proportionate outcomes model to calculate the costs and consequences of using RSV mAb or maternal RSV vaccine over a ten-year period (2025-2034) in Argentina, assuming both year-round and seasonal administration. We compared each intervention to no pharmaceutical RSV intervention. The primary outcome was the discounted cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from a societal perspective. We assumed willingness-to-pay of US$ 12,285 per DALY averted (0.9 times the national gross domestic product per capita). We used population study data on costs and disease burden and the efficacy of clinical trials of both interventions as inputs. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

FINDINGS

Either strategy (RSV mAb or maternal RSV vaccine) could prevent >25% of RSV deaths aged <5 years and ∼30% aged <6 months (the age group where most intervention impact occurs). With a dose price of $US 50, both products have a 100% probability of being cost-effective compared to no intervention (US$ 5283 [95%CI $5203-$5363] and US$ 5522 [95%CI $5427 - $5617] per DALY averted for year-round use of RSV mAb and maternal RSV vaccine, respectively). Similar health impact could be achieved by a six-month seasonal strategy, which could improve cost-effectiveness by around 45% (assuming the dose price is unchanged).

INTERPRETATION

Either RSV mAb or maternal RSV vaccine are worth consideration in Argentina when priced at ≤US$ 50 per dose. A seasonal strategy could improve cost-effectiveness.

Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination for 1-4-Year-Olds in Shanghai, China

INTRODUCTION

Varicella has not yet been included in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in China, and varicella vaccination strategies vary by region. To determine the optimal varicella vaccination strategy in Shanghai, China, the cost-effectiveness and 5-year costs of 5 immunization scenarios were analyzed.

METHODS

A static decision tree-Markov model was developed in 2022 to assess the cost-effectiveness and 5-year costs of voluntary and routine varicella vaccination programs in the 2019 birth cohort in Shanghai from a societal perspective. Parameters were collected in 2022 from the varicella surveillance system, a questionnaire survey of 414 guardians of patients with childhood varicella, and semi-structured interviews with 20 experts on varicella outbreaks from different institutions in Shanghai. The outcomes included varicella cases avoided, quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss, and incremental costs per QALY (ICER). The 5-year costs were compared with local medical expenditures.

RESULTS

Among the 5 scenarios, one dose of routine varicella vaccination was the most cost-saving (USD 70.2) and cost-effective (Dominant) with a 5-year immunization expenditure of USD 9.9 million. Two doses of routine varicella vaccination had the highest QALY (29.9), and its ICER (USD 791.9/QALY) was below the willingness-to-pay threshold (USD 5,203-23,767/QALY). The 5-year immunization expenditure was USD 19.8 million. The effectiveness and price of vaccines, vaccination coverage, and per capita income are the 4 main factors that affect ICERs.

CONCLUSIONS

In Shanghai, the 2 doses of routine varicella vaccination strategy for 1- and 4-year-olds with a 95% coverage rate was found to be the optimal varicella immunization strategy.

Efficiency of periodontal treatment to improve type 2 diabetes mellitus outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis of economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

To assess the efficiency of periodontal treatment (PT) in improving diabetes-related outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and periodontitis, providing an updated and comprehensive synthesis from economic evaluations (EE).

METHODS

Seven databases and one register were independently searched by two reviewers for articles published up to 8 May 2024. Studies that assessed the efficiency of PT versus no treatment or other dental treatments were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane RoB 2, ROBINS-I and ECOBIAS tools for the first stage of EE and the CHEERS checklist and NICE quality appraisal tool for overall EE. Qualitative and quantitative syntheses of the articles were conducted and assessed using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included. PT reduces total healthcare costs, including inpatient and outpatient, diabetes-related costs and other drug costs (low to moderate certainty). A total incremental net benefit of USD 12 348 (2022 currency, 95% CI 12 195-12 500) was estimated from three high-quality model-based cost-utility analyses (high certainty).

DISCUSSION

The inclusion of PT in the comprehensive treatment of patients with T2DM and periodontitis is cost-effective. Future research is required to ensure the transferability of these findings and inform decision makers from different countries.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42023443146.

Cost-effectiveness of treating childhood acute myeloid leukemia at a tertiary care center in North India

INTRODUCTION

Childhood cancers are a significant global health concern, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where over 80% of childhood cancer patients reside. In India, acute myeloid leukemia (AML) constitutes a significant portion of childhood cancers; however, the data on the cost-effectiveness of childhood AML treatment in India and other LMICs remain limited.

METHODS

The study focused on children (<15 years of age) diagnosed with AML at a tertiary care cancer center in North India. Data, including treatment outcome, treatment-related morbidity, mortality, and costs were retrospectively collected from the electronic medical record and hospital database. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted in relation to the country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold.

RESULTS

Among 59 AML patients, treatment-related high mortality rates, abandonment, and limited access to bone marrow transplantation were notable challenges. Intensive chemotherapy resulted in substantial sepsis-related complications, with treatment-related mortality reaching 30%. The 3-year event-free survival and overall survival of the 43 patients who received intensive therapy were 24.5% ± 7.6% and 27.9% ± 8.3%, respectively. Despite these challenges, treating childhood AML was still found to be cost-effective. The total cost per newly diagnosed patient treated with curative intent was $4454. Cost per DALY averted accounted for 24% of the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, rendering the treatment to be cost-effective with a stringent cost-effectiveness threshold utilized.

CONCLUSION

The study underscores the challenges faced while treating childhood AML in LMICs, including treatment-induced high sepsis-related mortality and abandonment. Despite these challenges, it remains cost-effective to treat childhood AML in India. Future efforts should focus on reducing treatment-related morbidity and mortality to further improve outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

Cost-effectiveness of group medical visits and microfinance interventions versus usual care to manage hypertension in Kenya: a secondary modelling analysis of data from the Bridging Income Generation with Group Integrated Care (BIGPIC) trial

BACKGROUND

The Bridging Income Generation with Group Integrated Care (BIGPIC) trial in rural Kenya showed that integrating usual care with group medical visits or microfinance interventions reduced systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular risk in participants. We aimed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of three BIGPIC interventions for a modelled cohort and by sex, as well as the cost of implementing these interventions.

METHODS

For this analysis, we used data collected during the BIGPIC trial, a four-group, cluster-randomised trial conducted in the western Kenyan catchment area of the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare. BIGPIC enrolled participants from 24 rural health facilities in rural western Kenya aged 35 years or older with either increased blood pressure or diabetes. Participants were assigned to receive either usual care, group medical visits, microfinance, or a combination of group medical visits and microfinance (GMV-MF). Our model estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of the three BIGPIC interventions via seven health states (ie, a hypertensive state, five chronic cardiovascular-disease states, and a death state) by simulating transitions between health states for a hypothetical cohort of individuals with hypertension on the basis of QRISK3 scores. In every cycle, participants accrued costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with their health state. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for the entire modelled cohort and by sex by dividing the incremental cost by the incremental effectiveness of the next most expensive intervention. The main outcome of this analysis was ICERs for each intervention evaluated. This analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02501746).

FINDINGS

Between Feb 6, 2017, and Dec 29, 2019, 2890 people were recruited to the BIGPIC trial. 2020 (69·9%) of 2890 participants were female and 870 (30·1%) were male. At baseline, mean QRISK3 score was 11·5 (95% CI 11·1-11·9) for the trial population, 11·9 (11·5-12·2) for male participants, and 11·3 (11·0-11·6) for female participants. For the population of Kenya, group medical visits were estimated to cost US$7 more per individual than usual care and result in 0·005 more DALYs averted (ICER $1455 per DALY averted). Microfinance was estimated to cost $19 more than group medical visits but was only estimated to avert 0·001 more DALYs. Relative to group medical visits, GMV-MF was estimated to cost $29 more and avert 0·009 more DALYs ($3235 per DALY averted). Relative to usual care, GMV-MF was estimated to cost $37 more and avert 0·014 more DALYs ($2601 per DALY averted). In the first year of the intervention, usual care was estimated to be the least expensive intervention to implement ($87 per participant; $10 238 per health-facility catchment area [HFCA]), then group medical visits ($99 per participant; $12 268 per HFCA), then microfinance ($120 per participant; $14 172 per HFCA), with GMV-MF estimated to be the most expensive intervention to implement ($139 per participant; $16 913 per HFCA).

INTERPRETATION

Group medical visits and GMV-MF were estimated to be cost-effective strategies to improve blood-pressure control in rural Kenya. However, which intervention to pursue depends on resource availability. Policy makers should consider these factors, in addition to sex differences in programme effectiveness, when selecting optimal implementation strategies.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of fruquintinib in Chinese patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is a significant health concern worldwide, with metastatic CRC (mCRC) presenting a particularly challenging prognosis. The FRESCO-2 trial highlighted the potential of fruquintinib in heavily pretreated mCRC patients.

AIM

Given the recent changes in drug pricing in China and the evolving mCRC treatments, this study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fruquintinib in the context of current Chinese healthcare standards.

METHOD

This study utilized data from the FRESCO-2 trial, incorporating a partitioned-survival model to simulate three health states: Progression-Free Survival, Progressive Disease, and death. Costs and utility values were derived from published literature and the FRESCO-2 trial. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the base-case result and to understand the impact of various parameters on the ICER.

RESULTS

The base-case analysis revealed a total cost of $11,089.05 for the fruquintinib group and $5,374.48 for the placebo group. The overall QALYs were higher in the fruquintinib group (0.61 QALYs) compared to the placebo group (0.43 QALYs). The ICER was calculated to be $31,747.67 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses identified the utility of progression-free survival, the cost of fruquintinib, and the costs of best supportive care as significant determinants of ICER.

CONCLUSION

Fruquintinib emerges as a promising therapeutic option for refractory mCRC. However, its cost-effectiveness depends on selected willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. While the drug's ICER surpasses the WTP based on China's 2022 GDP per capita, it remains below the threshold set at three times the national GDP.

Direct and indirect costs of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies in adults: A systematic review

Idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) are rare disorders characterized by inflammation of skeletal muscle, which can result in fatty replacement of muscle, muscle atrophy, and subsequent weakness. Therapeutic advancements have improved clinical outcomes but impose an economic impact on healthcare systems. We aimed to summarize the direct and indirect costs associated with IIMs in a systematic review (PROSPERO Registration #CRD42023443143). Electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Scopus) were systematically searched for full-length articles (excluding case reports) reporting costs specific to patients diagnosed with an IIM, published between database inception and April 19, 2023. Direct cost categories included inpatient, outpatient, medication, home/long-term care, and durable medical equipment such as mobility and respiratory aids. Indirect costs included lost productivity. Eligibility criteria were met by 21 of the 3,193 unique titles identified. Costs are expressed in 2023 United States of America dollars, with adjustments for differences in purchasing power applied to currency conversions. As no study reported on all cost categories, annualized cost of IIM per patient was estimated by calculating the mean cost per category, and then adding the means of the different cost categories. By this method, IIM was estimated to cost $52,210 per patient per year. Proportional contributions by category were lost productivity (0.278), outpatient care (0.214), medications (0.171), inpatient care (0.161), home/long-term care (0.122), and durable medical equipment (0.053). Newer findings with intravenous immunoglobulin considered first line therapy for IIM demonstrated markedly higher annual medication costs per patient, upwards of $33,900 compared to an average of $3,908 ± $1,042 in older studies. Future cost-effectiveness studies require updated cost-of-illness studies reflecting the evolving sub-classification and treatment options for IIM, and should consider the impact of IIM on patients and their families.

Cost-effectiveness of single-pill and separate-pill administration of antihypertensive triple combination therapy: a population-based microsimulation study

BACKGROUND

Single-pill combination (SPC) of three antihypertensive drugs has been shown to improve adherence to therapy compared with free combinations, but little is known about its long-term costs and health consequences. This study aimed to evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness profile of a three-drug SPC of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, a calcium-channel blocker, and a diuretic vs the corresponding two-pill administration (a two-drug SPC plus a third drug separately) from the Italian payer perspective.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using multi-state semi-Markov modeling and microsimulation. Using the healthcare utilization database of the Lombardy Region (Italy), 30,172 and 65,817 patients aged ≥ 40 years who initiated SPC and two-pill combination, respectively, between 2015 and 2018 were identified. The observation period extended from the date of the first drug dispensation until death, emigration, or December 31, 2019. Disease and cost models were parametrized using the study cohort, and a lifetime microsimulation was applied to project costs and life expectancy for the compared strategies, assigning each of them to each cohort member. Costs and life-years gained were discounted by 3%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 1,000 samples was performed to address parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

Compared with the two-pill combination, the SPC increased life expectancy by 0.86 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61-1.14), with a mean cost differential of -€12 (95% CI -9,719-8,131), making it the dominant strategy (ICER = -14, 95% CI -€15,871-€7,113). The cost reduction associated with the SPC was primarily driven by savings in hospitalization costs, amounting to €1,850 (95% CI 17-7,813) and €2,027 (95% CI 19-8,603) for patients treated with the SPC and two-pill combination, respectively. Conversely, drug costs were higher for the SPC (€3,848, 95% CI 574-10,640 vs. €3,710, 95% CI 263-11,955). The cost-effectiveness profile did not significantly change according to age, sex, and clinical status.

CONCLUSIONS

The SPC was projected to be cost-effective compared with the two-pill combination at almost all reasonable willingness-to-pay thresholds. As it is currently prescribed to only a few patients, the widespread use of this strategy could result in benefits for both patients and the healthcare system.

Key Issues of Economic Evaluations for Health Technology Assessment in China: A Nationwide Expert Survey

OBJECTIVES

Health technology assessment (HTA) is increasingly crucial in medicine price negotiations in China, yet previous appraisals revealed national discrepancies on key economic evaluation issues: willingness-to-pay threshold, pricing models for multi-indication medicines, and comparator selection principles. This study aimed to collect expert opinions on these issues for future HTA evaluations.

METHODS

A nationwide anonymous web-based survey encompassing experts across academia, HTA, consultancy/contract research organization/industry, service provider, and payer. In 2023, a generic invitation containing a web link to the questionnaire was disseminated via WeChat using convenience and snowball sampling. Agreement rates for questionnaire views were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The relationship between participants' responses and demographics was examined using appropriate logistic models.

RESULTS

A total of 303 responses were received from experts in 34 cities. Key expert views include a suggested base willingness-to-pay threshold ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 times gross domestic product (52.1% agreement); elevated thresholds for childhood diseases, rare diseases, end-of-life diseases, and first-in-class medicines (>78.0% agreement); a single pricing model for multi-indication medicines (60.4% agreement); consideration of multiple medicines as comparators (79.9% agreement); and avoiding the use of centrally procured medicines as comparators for medicines with a time to market of less than 3 years (71.0% agreement). Participants who are service provider had lower odds of selecting higher thresholds (odds ratio 0.26; P < .01) than responders from consultancy/contract research organization/industry.

CONCLUSIONS

Expert views indicate the need for substantial changes in China's current HTA methods, highlighting the need for increased investment in HTA processes and expertise cultivation.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis in 128 countries: a meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analyses have been conducted for many interventions for HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, and tuberculosis, but they have not been conducted for all interventions that are currently recommended in all countries. To support national decision makers in the effective allocation of resources, we conducted a meta-regression analysis of published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for interventions for these causes, and predicted ICERs for 14 recommended interventions for Global Fund-eligible countries.

METHODS

In the meta-regression analysis, we used data from the Tufts University Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health (Boston, MA, USA) Cost-Effectiveness Registries (the CEA Registry beginning in 1976 and the Global Health CEA registry beginning in 1995) up to Jan 1, 2018. To create analysis files, we standardised and mapped the data, extracted additional data from published articles, and added variables from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Then we selected ratios for interventions with a minimum of two published articles and three published ICERs that mapped to one of five GBD causes (HIV/AIDS, malaria, syphilis, drug-susceptible tuberculosis, or multi-drug resistant tuberculosis), and to a GBD country; reported a currency year during or after 1990; and for which the comparator intervention was defined as no intervention, standard of care, or placebo. Our meta-regression analysis used all available data on 25 eligible interventions, and quantified the association between ICERs and factors at country level and intervention level. We used a five-stage statistical model that was developed to synthesise evidence on cost-effectiveness analyses, and we adapted it for smaller sample sizes by grouping interventions by cause and type (ie, prevention, diagnostics, and treatment). Using the meta-regression parameters we predicted country-specific median ICERs, IQRs, and 95% uncertainty intervals in 2019 US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for 14 currently recommended interventions. We report ICERs in league tables with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and country-specific thresholds.

FINDINGS

The sample for the analysis was 1273 ratios from 144 articles, of which we included 612 ICERs from 106 articles in our meta-regression analysis. We predicted ICERs for antiretroviral therapy for prevention for two age groups and pregnant women, pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV for two risk groups, four malaria prevention interventions, antenatal syphilis screening, two tuberculosis prevention interventions, the Xpert tuberculosis test, and chemotherapy for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. At the country level, ranking of interventions and number of interventions with a predicted median ICER below the country-specific threshold varied greatly. For instance, median ICERs for six of 14 interventions were below the country-specific threshold in Sudan, whereas 12 of 14 were below the country-specific threshold in Peru. Antenatal syphilis screening had the lowest median ICER among all 14 interventions in 81 (63%) of 128 countries, ranging from $3 (IQR 2-4) per DALY averted in Equatorial Guinea to $3473 (2244-5222) in Ukraine. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV/AIDS for men who have sex with men had the highest median ICER among all interventions in 116 (91%) countries, ranging from $2326 (1077-4567) per DALY averted in Lesotho to $53 559 (23 841-108 534) in Maldives.

INTERPRETATION

Country-specific league tables highlight the interventions that offer better value per DALY averted, and can support decision making at a country level that is more tailored to available resources than GDP per capita and country-specific thresholds. Meta-regression is a promising method to synthesise cost-effectiveness analysis results and transfer them across settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Clinical Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Collaborative Dementia Care: A Secondary Analysis of a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Long-term evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of collaborative dementia care management (CDCM) is lacking.

Objective

To evaluate whether 6 months of CDCM is associated with improved patient clinical outcomes and caregiver burden and is cost-effective compared with usual care over 36 months.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a prespecified secondary analysis of a general practitioner (GP)-based, cluster randomized, 2-arm clinical trial conducted in Germany from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014, with follow-up until March 31, 2018. Participants were aged 70 years or older, lived at home, and screened positive for dementia. Data were analyzed from March 2011 to March 2018.

Intervention

The intervention group received CDCM, comprising a comprehensive needs assessment and individualized interventions by nurses specifically qualified for dementia care collaborating with GPs and health care stakeholders over 6 months. The control group received usual care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Main outcomes were neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory [NPI]), caregiver burden (Berlin Inventory of Caregivers' Burden in Dementia [BIZA-D]), health-related quality of life (HRQOL, measured by the Quality of Life in Alzheimer Disease scale and 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey [SF-12]), antidementia drug treatment, potentially inappropriate medication, and cost-effectiveness (incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) over 36 months. Outcomes between groups were compared using multivariate regression models adjusted for baseline scores.

Results

A total of 308 patients, of whom 221 (71.8%) received CDCM (mean [SD] age, 80.1 [5.3] years; 142 [64.3%] women) and 87 (28.2%) received usual care (mean [SD] age, 79.2 [4.5] years; 50 [57.5%] women), were included in the clinical effectiveness analyses, and 428 (303 [70.8%] CDCM, 125 [29.2%] usual care) were included in the cost-effectiveness analysis (which included 120 patients who had died). Participants receiving CDCM showed significantly fewer behavioral and psychological symptoms (adjusted mean difference [AMD] in NPI score, -10.26 [95% CI, -16.95 to -3.58]; P = .003; Cohen d, -0.78 [95% CI, -1.09 to -0.46]), better mental health (AMD in SF-12 Mental Component Summary score, 2.26 [95% CI, 0.31-4.21]; P = .02; Cohen d, 0.26 [95% CI, -0.11 to 0.51]), and lower caregiver burden (AMD in BIZA-D score, -0.59 [95% CI, -0.81 to -0.37]; P < .001; Cohen d, -0.71 [95% CI, -1.03 to -0.40]). There was no difference between the CDCM group and usual care group in use of antidementia drugs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.91 [95% CI, 0.96-3.77]; P = .07; Cramér V, 0.12) after 36 months. There was no association with overall HRQOL, physical health, or use of potentially inappropriate medication. The CDCM group gained QALYs (0.137 [95% CI, 0.000 to 0.274]; P = .049; Cohen d, 0.20 [95% CI, -0.09 to 0.40]) but had no significant increase in costs (437€ [-5438€ to 6313€] [US $476 (95% CI, -$5927 to $6881)]; P = .87; Cohen d, 0.07 [95% CI, -0.14 to 0.28]), resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of 3186€ (US $3472) per QALY. Cost-effectiveness was significantly better for patients living alone (CDCM dominated, with lower costs and more QALYs gained) than for those living with a caregiver (47 538€ [US $51 816] per QALY).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this secondary analysis of a cluster randomized clinical trial, CDCM was associated with improved patient, caregiver, and health system-relevant outcomes over 36 months beyond the intervention period. Therefore, it should become a health policy priority to initiate translation of CDCM into routine care.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01401582.

The cost-effectiveness of integrating simplified HCV testing into HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment services among men who have sex with men in Taiwan

Background

Simplified hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing integrated into existing HIV services has the potential to improve HCV diagnoses and treatment. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of integrating different simplified HCV testing strategies into existing HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment services among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Taiwan.

Methods

Mathematical modeling was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of integrating simplified HCV tests (point-of-care antibody, reflex RNA, or immediate point-of-care RNA) with HCV treatment into existing HIV prevention and care for MSM from a healthcare perspective. The impact of increasing PrEP and HIV treatment coverage among MSM in combination with these HCV testing strategies was also considered. We reported lifetime costs (2022 US dollars) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with a 3% annual discounting rate.

Findings

Point-of-care HCV antibody and reflex RNA testing are cost-effective compared to current HCV testing in all PrEP and HIV treatment coverage scenarios (ICERs <$32,811/QALY gained). Immediate point-of-care RNA testing would be only cost-effective compared to the current HCV testing if coverage of HIV services remained unchanged. Point-of-care antibody testing in an unchanged HIV services coverage scenario and all simplified HCV testing strategies in scenarios that increased both HIV PrEP and treatment coverage form an efficient frontier, indicating best value for money strategies.

Interpretation

Our findings support the integration of simplified HCV testing and people-centered services for MSM and highlight the economic benefits of integrating simplified HCV testing into existing services for MSM alongside HIV PrEP and treatment.

Funding

This study was made possible as part of a research-funded PhD being undertaken by HJW under the UNSW Sydney Scientia scholarship and was associated with the Rapid Point of Care Research Consortium for infectious disease in the Asia Pacific (RAPID), which is funded by an NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence. JG is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant (1176131).

Cost effectiveness analysis of a fixed dose combination pill for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease from an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impart a large burden on the global population, especially in lower income countries where affordability limits the use of cardiovascular medicines. A fixed dose combination strategy of at least 2 blood pressure lowering medications and a statin with aspirin in a single pill has been shown to reduce the risk of incident CVD by 38% in primary prevention in a recent meta-analysis. We report the in-trial (median follow-up: 5 years) cost-effectiveness of a fixed dose combination (FDC) pill in different income groups based on data from that meta-analysis.

Methods

Countries were categorized using World Bank economic groups: Lower Middle Income Countries (LMIC), Upper Middle Income Countries (UMIC) and High Income Countries (HIC). Country specific costs were obtained for hospitalized events, procedures, and non-study medications (2020 USD). FDC price was based on the cheapest equivalent substitute (CES) for each component.

Findings

For the CES-FDC pill versus control the difference in cost was $346 (95% CI: $294-$398) per participant in Lower Middle Income Countries, $838 (95% CI: $781-$895) in Upper Middle Income Countries and $42 (95% CI: -$155 to $239) (cost-neutral) in High Income Countries. During the study period the CES-FDC pill was associated with incremental gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.08) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $5767 (95% CI: 5735-$5799), $13,937 (95% CI: $13,893-$14,041) and $700 (95% CI: $662-$738) respectively. In subgroups analyses, the highest 10 years CVD risk subgroup had ICERs of $2033, $7322 and -$6000/QALY.

Interpretation

A FDC pill produced at CES costs is cost-neutral in HIC. Governments of LMI and UMI countries should assess these results based on the ICER threshold accepted in their own country and own specific health care priorities but should consider prioritizing this strategy for patients with high 10 years CVD risk as a first step.

Funding

Population Health Research Institute.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of community-led HIV self-testing among key populations in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal

INTRODUCTION

HIV self-testing (HIVST) is a promising strategy to improve diagnosis coverage among key populations (KP). The ATLAS (Auto Test VIH, Libre d'Accéder à la connaissance de son Statut) programme implemented HIVST in three West African countries, distributing over 380,000 kits up between 2019 and 2021, focussing on community-led distribution by KP to their peers and subsequent secondary distribution to their partners and clients. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of community-led HIVST in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.

METHODS

An HIV transmission dynamics model was adapted and calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data and used to predict the impact of HIVST. We considered the distribution of HIVST among two KP-female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM)-and their sexual partners and clients. We compared the cost-effectiveness of two scenarios against a counterfactual without HIVST over a 20-year horizon (2019-2039). The ATLAS-only scenario mimicked the 2-year implemented ATLAS programme, whereas the ATLAS-scale-up scenario achieved 95% coverage of HIVST distribution among FSW and MSM by 2025 onwards. The primary outcome is the number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted. Scenarios were compared using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Costing was performed using a healthcare provider's perspective. Costs were discounted at 4%, converted to $USD 2022 and estimated using a cost-function to accommodate economies of scale.

RESULTS

The ATLAS-only scenario was highly cost-effective over 20 years, even at low willingness-to-pay thresholds. The median ICERs were $126 ($88-$210) per DALY averted in Côte d'Ivoire, $92 ($88-$210) in Mali and 27$ ($88-$210) in Senegal. Scaling-up the ATLAS programme would also be cost-effective, and substantial epidemiological impacts would be achieved. The ICERs for the scale-up scenario were $199 ($122-$338) per DALY averted in Côte d'Ivoire, $224 ($118-$415) in Mali and $61 ($18-$128) in Senegal.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the implemented and the potential scale-up of community-led HIVST programmes in West Africa, where KP are important to overall transmission dynamics, have the potential to be highly cost-effective, as compared to a scenario without HIVST. These findings support the scale-up of community-led HIVST to reach populations that otherwise may not access conventional testing services.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Home Telemonitoring System for Asian Adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background: Telemonitoring programs have been found to be effective in improving diabetic control by promoting patients' self-management of diabetes through medication adherence, dietary modifications, and exercise. Nonetheless, few studies have assessed the cost-effectiveness of telemonitoring for the self-management of diabetes based on real-world data. Methods: A randomized controlled trial entitled Optimizing care of Patients via Telehealth In Monitoring and Augmenting their control of Diabetes Mellitus was conducted among adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Singapore. Individuals in the intervention group (n = 159) underwent a telemonitoring program comprising of remote patient monitoring, education, individualized health coaching, and teleconsultations, whereas individuals in the control group (n = 160) received regular care. Economic evaluation was conducted from health care system and societal perspectives in 2020 in Singapore dollars, using health outcomes and costs documented at baseline and at 6 month follow-up. One-way sensitivity analyses and bootstrapping to generate scatter plot on cost-effectiveness planes were done. Results: The adjusted reduction in HbA1c scores was greater in the intervention group by -0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.65 to -0.17), while the change in utility scores was higher in the intervention group by 0.011 (95% CI, -0.016 to 0.0378). From a health care perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the telemonitoring program per unit improvement in HbA1c, per additional case of well-controlled diabetes, and per unit improvement in quality adjusted life years was SGD 580.44, SGD 9100.15, and SGD 21,476.36, respectively. From a societal perspective, the ICERs were SGD 817.20, SGD 12,812.02, and SGD 30,236.36, respectively. Conclusions: The Optimizing care of Patients via Telehealth In Monitoring and Augmenting their control of Diabetes Mellitus telemonitoring program was effective and potentially cost-effective for the management and control of diabetes among patients in primary care.

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke with established large infarct in Germany: a decision tree and Markov model

BACKGROUND

Recent studies, including the TENSION trial, support the use of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke with large infarct (Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS) 3-5).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of EVT compared with best medical care (BMC) alone in this population from a German healthcare payer perspective.

METHODS

A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model (lifetime horizon) were used to compare healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) between EVT and BMC. The effectiveness of EVT was reflected by the 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) outcome from the TENSION trial. QALYs were based on published mRS-specific health utilities (EQ-5D-3L indices). Long-term healthcare costs were calculated based on insurance data. Costs (reported in 2022 euros) and QALYs were discounted by 3% annually. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to account for parameter uncertainties.

RESULTS

Compared with BMC, EVT yielded higher lifetime incremental costs (€24 257) and effects (1.41 QALYs), resulting in an ICER of €17 158/QALY. The results were robust to parameter variation in sensitivity analyses (eg, 95% probability of cost-effectiveness was achieved at a willingness to pay of >€22 000/QALY). Subgroup analyses indicated that EVT was cost-effective for all ASPECTS subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

EVT for acute ischemic stroke with established large infarct is likely to be cost-effective compared with BMC, assuming that an additional investment of €17 158/QALY is deemed acceptable by the healthcare payer.

A resuscitation systems analysis for South Africa: A narrative review

With a growing incidence in cardiovascular diseases in Africa, including South Africa, and with it a greater incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) there is a need to understand the readiness of these emergency care systems to support a response. Yet, OHCA is expensive and requires comprehensive development across an entire chain of survival in order to gain any benefit in mortality or morbidity. In this narrative review, we provide a resuscitation systems analysis using the Global Resuscitation Alliance's Frame of Survival. We provide evidence or commentary on the elements of the outer frame and inner frame, and make an assessment of the South African system's readiness to support OHCA care, and provide suggestions for priority areas that need to be developed. The South African resuscitation system demonstrates reasonable readiness to respond to OHCA but is characterised by considerable variation and fragmentation. Given the cost ineffectiveness of many interventions and the anticipated rise in OHCA incidence, there is a pressing need for context-specific strategies in South Africa. These strategies should focus on enhancing both outcomes and resource efficiency, while respecting community ethics and sociocultural dynamics.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Sleep Apnea Management: A Critical Evaluation of the Impact of Therapy on Health Care Costs

TOPIC IMPORTANCE

OSA is a widespread condition that significantly affects both health and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). If left untreated, OSA can lead to accidents, decreased productivity, and medical complications, resulting in significant economic burdens including the direct costs of managing the disorder. Given the constraints on health care resources, understanding the cost-effectiveness of OSA management is crucial. A key factor in cost-effectiveness is whether OSA therapies reduce medical costs associated with OSA-related complications.

REVIEW FINDINGS

Treatments for OSA have been shown to enhance HRQoL, particularly for symptomatic patients with moderate or severe disease. Economic studies also have demonstrated that these treatments are highly cost-effective. However, although substantial empirical evidence shows that untreated OSA is associated with increased medical costs, uncertainty remains about the impact of OSA treatment on these costs. Randomized controlled trials of positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy have failed to demonstrate cost reductions, but the studies have had important limitations. Observational studies suggest that PAP therapy may temper increases in costs, but only among patients who are highly adherent to treatment. However, the healthy adherer effect is an important potential source of bias in these studies.

SUMMARY

OSA management is cost-effective, although uncertainties persist regarding the therapy's impact on medical costs. Future studies should focus on reducing bias, particularly the healthy adherer effect, and addressing other confounding factors to clarify potential medical cost savings. Promising avenues to further understanding include using quasiexperimental designs, incorporating more sophisticated characterization of OSA severity and symptoms, and leveraging newer technologies (eg, big data, wearables, and artificial intelligence).

Estimating Taiwan's QALY league table for catastrophic illnesses: Providing real-world evidence to integrate prevention with treatment for resources allocation

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Curative technologies improve patient's survival and/or quality of life but increase financial burdens. Effective prevention benefits all three. We summarize estimation methods and provide examples of how much money is spent per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or life year (LY) on treating a catastrophic illness under a lifetime horizon and how many QALYs/LYs and lifetime medical costs (LMC) could be potentially saved by prevention.

METHODS

We established cohorts by interlinkages of Taiwan's nation-wide databases including National Health Insurance. We developed methods to estimate lifetime survival functions, which were multiplied with the medical costs and/or quality of life and summed up to estimate LMC, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and lifetime average cost per QALY/LY for catastrophic illnesses. By comparing with the age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched referents simulated from vital statistics, we obtained the loss-of-QALE and loss-of-life expectancy (LE).

RESULTS

The lifetime cost-effectiveness ratios of ventilator-dependent comatose patients, dialysis, spinal cord injury, major trauma, and cancers were US$ 96,800, 16,200-20,000, 5500-5,900, 3400-3,600, and 2900-11,900 per QALY or LY, respectively. The successful prevention of lung, liver, oral, esophagus, stomach, nasopharynx, or ovary cancer would potentially save US$ 28,000-97,000 and > 10 QALYs; whereas those for end-stage kidney disease, stroke, spinal injury, or major trauma would be US$ 55,000-300,000 and 10-14 QALYs. Loss-of-QALE and loss-of-LE were less confounded indicators for comparing the lifetime health benefits of different technologies estimated from real-world data.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of prevention with treatment for resources allocation seems feasible and would improve equity and efficiency.

Cost-effectiveness of Prefusion F Protein-based Vaccines Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease for Older Adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration for protecting older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract illness. We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines.

METHODS

We developed a discrete-event simulation model, parameterized with the burden of RSV disease including outpatient care, hospitalization, and death for adults aged 60 years or older in the United States. Taking into account the costs associated with these RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained as a measure of effectiveness and determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for Arexvy and Abrysvo vaccination programs to be cost-effective from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Using a willingness-to-pay of $95 000 per QALY gained, we found that vaccination programs could be cost-effective for a PPD up to $127 with Arexvy and $118 with Abrysvo over the first RSV season. Achieving an influenza-like vaccination coverage of 66% for the population of older adults in the United States, the budget impact of these programs at the maximum PPD ranged from $6.48 to $6.78 billion. If the benefits of vaccination extend to a second RSV season as reported in clinical trials, we estimated a maximum PPD of $235 for Arexvy and $245 for Abrysvo, with 2-year budget impacts of $11.78 and $12.25 billion, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination of older adults would provide substantial direct health benefits by reducing outcomes associated with RSV-related illness in this population.

Exploratory analysis of the economically justifiable price of nirsevimab for healthy late-preterm and term infants in Colombia

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus infection is the leading cause of lower respiratory infection globally. Recently, nirsevimab has been approved to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. This study explores the economically justifiable price of nirsevimab for preventing RSV infection in Colombia's children under 1 year of age.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A static model was developed using the decision tree microsimulation to estimate the quality-adjusted costs and life years of two interventions: a single intramuscular dose of nirsevimab versus not applying nirsevimab. This analysis was made during a time horizon of 1 year and from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

The annual savings in Colombia associated with this cost per dose ranged from U$ 2.5 to 4.1 million. Based on thresholds of U$ 4828, U$ 5128, and U$ 19 992 per QALY evaluated in this study, we established economically justifiable drug acquisition prices of U$ 21.88, U$ 25.04, and U$ 44.02 per dose of nirsevimab.

CONCLUSION

the economically justifiable cost for nirsevimab in Colombia is between U$ 21 to U$ 44 per dose, depending on the willingness to pay used to decide its implementation. This result should encourage more studies in the region that optimize decision-making processes when incorporating this drug into the health plans of each country.

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis

INTRODUCTION

Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown.

METHODS

The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

Cost-effectiveness of weekly adaptive radiotherapy versus standard IMRT in head and neck cancer alongside the ARTIX trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) comparing an adaptive radiotherapy (ART) strategy, based on weekly replanning, aiming to correct the parotid gland overdose during treatment and expecting therefore to decrease xerostomia, when compared to a standard IMRT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted the ARTIX trial, a randomized, parallel-group, multicentric study comparing a systematic weekly replanning ART to a standard IMRT. The primary endpoint was the frequency of xerostomia at 12 months, measured by stimulating salivary flow with paraffin. The CEA was designed alongside the ARTIX trial which was linked to the French national health data system (SNDS). For each patient, healthcare consumptions and costs were provided by the SNDS. The reference case analysis was based on the primary endpoint of the trial. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Of the 129 patients randomly assigned between 2013 and 2018, only 2 records were not linked to the SNDS, which provides a linkage proportion of 98.4%. All of the other 127 records were linked with good to very good robustness. On the intent-to-treat population at 12 months, mean total costs per patient were €41,564 (SD 23,624) and €33,063 (SD 16,886) for ART and standard IMRT arms, respectively (p = 0.033). Incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €162,444 per xerostomia avoided. At 24 months, ICER was €194,521 per xerostomia avoided. For both progression-free and overall survival, ART was dominated by standard IMRT.

CONCLUSION

The ART strategy was deemed to be not cost-effective compared with standard IMRT for patients with locally advanced oropharyngeal cancer.

Time to bring female genital schistosomiasis out of neglect

BACKGROUND

Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) is a chronic gynaecological disease affecting girls and women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), caused by the parasite Schistosoma (S.) haematobium. FGS is associated with sexual dysfunction, reproductive tract morbidity and increased prevalence of HIV and cervical precancer lesions.

SOURCE OF DATA

Key peer-reviewed published literature.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

FGS screening and diagnosis require costly equipment and specialized training, seldom available in resource-limited settings. FGS surveillance is not included in wider schistosomiasis control strategies. The interplay of FGS with other SRH infections is not fully understood. Integration of FGS within sexual and reproductive health (SRH) control programmes needs to be explored.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

There are no standardized methods for individual or population-based FGS screening and diagnosis, hindering accurate disease burden estimates and targeted resource allocation. Treatment recommendations rely on public health guidelines, without rigorous clinical evidence on efficacy.

GROWING POINTS

Integrating FGS screening with SRH programmes offers an opportunity to reach at-risk women with limited access to healthcare services. Home-based self-sampling coupled with handheld colposcopes operated by primary healthcare workers show promise for FGS diagnosis and surveillance at scale.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

There is growing interest in decentralizing strategies for FGS screening and diagnosis. The accurate predictions on the 'cost-effectiveness' of these approaches will determine their affordability and feasibility within the overburdened health systems in SSA. Clinical trials are needed to optimize FGS treatment. Longitudinal studies can expand on the epidemiological knowledge on co-morbidities and integration within other SRH interventions.

Impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccination for prevention of respiratory syncytial virus disease among older adults in Ontario: A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study

BACKGROUND

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been approved by Health Canada for protecting older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract disease. We estimated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines under a publicly funded single-dose vaccination program in Ontario that targets residents of long-term care homes (LTCHs). Additionally, we evaluated an extended program that broadens vaccination to include community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

A discrete-event simulation model was parameterised with the burden of RSV disease including outpatient care, hospitalisation, and death among adults aged 60 years or older in Ontario, Canada. Accounting for direct and indirect costs (in 2023 Canadian dollars) associated with RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for vaccination programs to be cost-effective from both healthcare and societal perspectives over two RSV seasons. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to estimate the additional costs required to gain one QALY.

RESULTS

Using a willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per QALY gained, we found that vaccinating 90% of residents in LTCHs with Arexvy would be cost-effective from a societal perspective for a PPD up to $163, producing a mean ICER value of $49,984 (95% CI: $47,539 to $52,704) per QALY gained with a two-year budget impact of $463,468 per 100,000 older adults. The reduction of hospitalizations was estimated at 7.0% compared to the no-vaccination scenario. Extending the program to include community-dwelling older adults with a 74% coverage akin to influenza vaccination, Arexvy remains cost-effective for a PPD up to $139, with a mean ICER value of $49,698 (95% CI: 48,022 to 51,388) per QALY gained and a two-year budget impact of $8.63 million. Compared to the no-vaccination scenario, the extended program resulted in a 57.3% reduction in RSV-related hospitalisations.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating residents of LTCHs against RSV disease would be cost-effective depending on PPD; extending the program to community-dwelling older adults would provide substantial health benefits, averting significant direct healthcare costs and productivity losses.

An overview of childhood cancer care and outcomes in Egypt: a narrative review

Childhood cancer is an urgent priority in Egypt, owing to a large number of children with cancer, the great need and demand for paediatric oncology services, limited resources/funds and inferior survival outcomes. Therefore, an overview of the status of childhood cancer care in Egypt and an evidence-based approach towards optimal utilisation of resources/funds to improve this care are needed. This paper summarises key evidence about childhood cancer care and outcomes in Egypt. We conducted a narrative literature review using a structured search strategy of the MEDLINE database through the PubMed interface. All relevant evidence was summarised under five main sub-topics: (1) burden of childhood cancer in Egypt; (2) treatment approaches; (3) health outcomes; (4) costs and cost-effectiveness of treatment; and (5) barriers and facilitators to optimal childhood cancer care. We found high estimates of disease burden of childhood cancer in Egypt. Furthermore, childhood cancer treatment in Egypt is based on either implementing intensity-regulated protocols or adopting international protocols with or without adaptations to local contexts, leading to varying standards of care among the different treating centres. Limited data about the survival outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of treatment exist, although high-quality data from retrospective cohort studies were published from a large paediatric oncology centre (Children's Cancer Hospital Egypt-57357). As Egypt joins the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancers as a focus country, it is prepared to move towards streamlining national efforts to implement a national childhood cancer plan to advance care, improve health outcomes and optimise resource use. Through these efforts, Egypt could become a beacon of hope and a role model to other low- and middle-income countries seeking to improve their childhood cancer care.

A systematic review on the direct approach to elicit the demand-side cost-effectiveness threshold: Implications for low- and middle-income countries

Several literature review studies have been conducted on cost-effectiveness threshold values. However, only a few are systematic literature reviews, and most did not investigate the different methods, especially in-depth reviews of directly eliciting WTP per QALY. Our study aimed to 1) describe the different direct approach methods to elicit WTP/QALY; 2) investigate factors that contribute the most to the level of WTP/QALY value; and 3) investigate the relation between the value of WTP/QALY and GDP per capita and give some recommendations on feasible methods for eliciting WTP/QALY in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A systematic review concerning select studies estimating WTP/QALY from a direct approach was carried out in seven databases, with a cut off date of 03/2022. The conversion of monetary values into 2021 international dollars (i$) was performed via CPI and PPP indexes. The influential factors were evaluated with Bayesian model averaging. Criteria for recommendation for feasible methods in LMICs are made based on empirical evidence from the systematic review and given the resource limitation in LMICs. A total of 12,196 records were identified; 64 articles were included for full-text review. The WTP/QALY method and values varied widely across countries with a median WTP/QALY value of i$16,647.6 and WTP/QALY per GDP per capita of 0.53. A total of 11 factors were most influential, in which the discrete-choice experiment method had a posterior probability of 100%. Methods for deriving WTP/QALY vary largely across studies. Eleven influential factors contribute most to the level of values of WTP/QALY, in which the discrete-choice experiment method was the greatest affected. We also found that in most countries, values for WTP/QALY were below 1 x GDP per capita. Some important principles are addressed related to what LMICs may be concerned with when conducting studies to estimate WTP/QALY.

Systematic review of the impact of health care expenditure on health outcome measures: implications for cost-effectiveness thresholds

OBJECTIVE

Empirical estimates of the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures may inform the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) for guiding funding decisions. This study aims to systematically review studies that estimated this, summarize and compare the estimates by country income level.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, York Research database, and [anonymized] for Reviews and Dissemination database from inception to 1 August 2023. For inclusion, a study had to be an original article, estimating the impact of healthcare expenditure on health outcome measures at a country level, and presented estimates, in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or disability-adjusted life year (DALY).

RESULTS

We included 18 studies with 385 estimates. The median (range) estimates were PPP$ 11,224 (PPP$ 223 - PPP$ 288,816) per QALY gained and PPP$ 5,963 (PPP$ 71 - PPP$ 165,629) per DALY averted. As ratios of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPPC), these estimates were 0.376 (0.041-182.840) and 0.318 (0.004-37.315) times of GDPPC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The commonly used CET of GDPPC seems to be too high for all countries, but especially low-to-middle-income countries where the potential health losses from misallocation of the same money are greater.

REGISTRATION

The review protocol was published and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020147276).

Optimising HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and testing strategies in men who have sex with men in Australia, Thailand, and China: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Asia-Pacific region have a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection compared with the general population. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV is highly effective at preventing new HIV infections, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for MSM in different countries in the Asia-Pacific region with varying PrEP coverage and HIV testing frequencies remains unstudied. We aimed to analyse the economic and health benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral PrEP in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries within the Asia-Pacific region.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up among MSM in Australia, Thailand, and China. We assumed a static cohort of 100 000 MSM aged 18 years or older who were at risk of HIV infection, with a monthly cycle length over a 40-year time period. We evaluated hypothetical scenarios with universal PrEP coverage of 80% among 100 000 suitable MSM in each country. We modelled oral PrEP and CAB-LA for MSM with diverse HIV testing frequency strategies. We adopted the health-care system's perspective with a 3% annual discount rate. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured as additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, to compare different strategies with the status quo in each country. All costs were reported in 2021 US$. We also performed one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

FINDINGS

Compared with the status quo in each country, expanding oral PrEP to 80% of suitable MSM would avert 8·1% of new HIV infections in Australia, 14·5% in Thailand, and 26·4% in China in a 40-year period. Expanding oral PrEP use with 6-monthly HIV testing for both PrEP and non-PrEP users was cost-saving for Australia. Similarly, expanding oral PrEP use remained the most cost-effective strategy in both Thailand and China, but optimal testing frequency varied, with annual testing in Thailand (ICER $4707 per QALY gained) and 3-monthly testing in China (ICER $16 926 per QALY gained) for both PrEP and non-PrEP users. We also found that replacing oral PrEP with CAB-LA for MSM could avert more new HIV infections (12·8% in Australia, 27·6% in Thailand, and 32·8% in China), but implementing CAB-LA was not cost-effective due to its high cost. The cost of CAB-LA would need to be reduced by 50-90% and be used as a complementary strategy to oral PrEP to be cost-effective in these countries.

INTERPRETATION

Expanding oral PrEP use for MSM, with country-specific testing frequency, is cost-effective in Australia, Thailand, and China. Due to the high cost, CAB-LA is currently not affordable as a single-use strategy but might be offered as an additional option to oral PrEP.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Immunotherapy Guided by Immunohistochemistry PD-L1 Testing for Patients with NSCLC: A Microsimulation Model-Based Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

On the basis of immunohistochemistry PD-L1 testing results, patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are treated differently. Theoretically, patients with high PD-L1 expression (50% or 1%) should receive PD-1 monotherapy for fewer adverse reactions and cost savings from avoiding chemotherapy; however, there is controversy surrounding the cut-off criteria (1% or 50%) for immunohistochemistry testing and threshold for PD-1 monotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to predict the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different immunotherapy strategies for patients with NSCLC in China from the healthcare system perspective.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A microsimulation model was developed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three treatment strategies: PD-L1 testing (1%) (PD-1 monotherapy for those with PD-L1 expression at 1% threshold, and combination with chemotherapy for others with immunohistochemistry testing), PD-L1 testing (50%) (PD-1 monotherapy for those with PD-L1 expression at 50% threshold, and combination with chemotherapy for others with immunohistochemistry testing), and No PD-L1 testing (PD-1 combined with chemotherapy without immunohistochemistry testing). The model assumed 1000 patients per strategy, with each patient entering a unique clinical path prior to receiving treatment on the basis of PD-L1 test results. Clinical inputs were derived from clinical trials. Cost and utility parameters were obtained from the database and literature. One-way probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) and six scenario analyses were used to test the model's robustness.

RESULTS

The study revealed a hierarchy of survival benefits across three strategies, with No PD-L1 testing demonstrating the most survival advantage, followed by PD-L1 testing (50%), and finally, PD-L1 testing (1%). The comparative analysis demonstrated that No PD-L1 testing significantly enhanced overall survival (OS) (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78-0.93), progression-free survival (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.90), and progression-free2 survival (PFS2) (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-0.99) when juxtaposed against PD-L1 testing (1%). However, these improvements were not as pronounced when compared with PD-L1 testing (50%), particularly in relation to PFS, PFS2, and OS. The cost-effectiveness analysis further unveiled incremental cost-utility ratios (ICUR), with No PD-L1 testing versus PD-L1 testing (50%) at $34,003 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and No PD-L1 testing versus PD-L1 testing (1%) at $34,804 per QALY. In parallel, the ICUR for PD-L1 testing (50%) versus PD-L1 testing (1%) stood at $35,713 per QALY. Remarkably, the PSA result under a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $10,144 per QALY, with a 100% probability, demonstrated PD-L1 testing (1%) as the most cost-effective option.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival benefits of PD-1 monotherapy for high expression with PD-L1 immunohistochemistry testing are inferior to those of PD-1 combined with chemotherapy without testing, but it is found to be more cost-effective at the WTP thresholds in China and holds great potential in increasing affordability and reducing the economic burden.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of nirsevimab and maternal RSVpreF vaccine strategies for prevention of Respiratory Syncytial Virus disease among infants in Canada: a simulation study

Background

The cost-effectiveness of immunisation strategies with a long-acting monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab) and/or a protein-based maternal vaccine (RSVpreF) for protecting infants from Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-associated illness has not been previously determined for Canada. We estimated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of nirsevimab for immunising the entire birth cohort, regardless of gestational age or other risk factors. Additionally, we evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a combined strategy of year-round vaccination of pregnant women with RSVpreF and immunisation of infants at high risk, including those born preterm or with chronic conditions, with nirsevimab during the RSV season.

Methods

We developed a discrete-event simulation model, parameterized with the data on medically-attended RSV infections among infants under one year of age from 2010 to 2019, including outpatient care, hospitalisations, and deaths. Intervention scenarios targeting twelve monthly birth cohorts and pregnant women, reflecting the 2021 census data for Ontario, Canada were evaluated over a follow-up time horizon of one year from birth. Taking into account the costs (in 2023 Canadian dollars) associated with RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Further, we determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for nirsevimab and RSVpreF within which the program was cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from both healthcare and societal perspectives.

Findings

Using a willingness-to-pay of CAD$50,000 per QALY gained, we found that immunising the entire birth cohort with nirsevimab would be cost-effective from a societal perspective for a PPD of up to $290, with an annual budget impact of $83,978 for 1113 infants per 100,000 population. An alternative, combined strategy of vaccinating pregnant women and immunising only infants at high risk of severe disease would lead to a lower budget impact of $49,473 per 100,000 population with a PPD of $290 and $195 for nirsevimab and RSVpreF vaccine, respectively. This combined strategy would reduce infant mortality by 76%-85%, comparable to a 78% reduction achieved through a nirsevimab-only program of the entire birth cohort. The PPD for cost-effective programs with nirsevimab was sensitive to the target population among infants.

Interpretation

Passive immunisation of infants under 6 months of age with nirsevimab and vaccination of pregnant women with RSVpreF could be a cost-effective strategy for protecting infants during their first RSV season.

Funding

This study was supported by the Canadian Immunisation Research Network (CIRN) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR). Seyed M. Moghadas acknowledges support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (MfPH and Discovery grants). Alison P. Galvani acknowledges support from the The Notsew Orm Sands Foundation.

A randomised controlled trial of clinical and cost-effectiveness of the PASS Plus intervention for young children with autism spectrum disorder in New Delhi, India: study protocol for the COMPASS trial

BACKGROUND

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disability affecting at least 5 million children in South Asia. Majority of these children are without access to evidence-based care. The UK Pre-school Autism Communication Therapy (PACT) is the only intervention to have shown sustained impact on autism symptoms. It was systematically adapted for non-specialist community delivery in South Asia, as the 'Parent-mediated Autism Social Communication Intervention for non-Specialists (PASS)' and extended 'PASS Plus' interventions. RCTs of both showed feasibility, acceptability and positive effect on parent and child dyadic outcomes.

METHODS

The Communication-centred Parent-mediated treatment for Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Asia (COMPASS) trial is now a scale-up two-centre, two-arm single (rater) blinded random allocation parallel group study of the PASS Plus intervention in addition to treatment as usual (TAU) compared to TAU alone, plus health economic evaluation embedded in the India health system. Two hundred forty children (approximately 120 intervention/120 TAU) with ASD aged 2-9 years will be recruited from two tertiary care government hospitals in New Delhi, India. Accredited Social Health Activists will be one of the intervention delivery agents. Families will undertake up to 12 communication sessions over 8 months and will be offered the Plus modules which address coexisting problems. The trial's primary endpoint is at 9 months from randomisation, with follow-up at 15 months. The primary outcome is autism symptom severity; secondary outcomes include parent-child communication, child adaptation, quality of life and parental wellbeing. Primary analysis will follow intention-to-treat principles using linear mixed model regressions with group allocation and repeated measures as random effects. The cost-effectiveness analysis will use a societal perspective over the 15-month period of intervention and follow-up.

DISCUSSION

If clinically and cost-effective, this programme will fill an important gap of scalable interventions delivered by non-specialist health workers within the current care pathways for autistic children and their families in low-resource contexts. The programme has been implemented through the COVID-19 pandemic when restrictions were in place; intervention delivery and evaluation processes have been adapted to address these conditions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN; ISRCTN21454676 ; Registered 22 June 2018.

Cost-Effectiveness of Prefusion F Protein-Based Vaccines Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease for Older Adults in the United States

Background

Two prefusion F protein-based vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, have been authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration for protecting older adults against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract illness. We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of these vaccines.

Methods

We developed a discrete-event simulation model, parameterized with the burden of RSV disease including outpatient care, hospitalization, and death for adults aged 60 years or older in the US. Taking into account the costs associated with these RSV-related outcomes, we calculated the net monetary benefit using quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained as a measure of effectiveness, and determined the range of price-per-dose (PPD) for Arexvy and Abrysvo vaccination programs to be cost-effective from a societal perspective.

Results

Using a willingness-to-pay of $95,000 per QALY gained, we found that vaccination programs could be cost-effective for a PPD under $120 with Arexvy and $111 with Abrysvo over the first RSV season. Achieving an influenza-like vaccination coverage of 66% for the population of older adults in the US, the budget impact of these programs at the maximum PPD ranged from $5.74 to $6.10 billion. If the benefits of vaccination extend to a second RSV season as reported in clinical trials, we estimated a maximum PPD of $250 for Arexvy and $233 for Abrysvo, with two-year budget impacts of $11.59 and $10.89 billion, respectively.

Conclusions

Vaccination of older adults would provide substantial direct health benefits by reducing outcomes associated with RSV-related illness in this population.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

INTRODUCTION

Maharashtra, India, remained a hotspot during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial complete lockdown, the state slowly relaxed restrictions. We aim to estimate the lockdown's impact on COVID-19 cases and associated healthcare costs.

METHODS

Using daily case data for 84 days (9 March-31 May 2020), we modeled the epidemic's trajectory and predicted new cases for different phases of lockdown. We fitted log-linear models to estimate the growth rate, basic (R₀), daily reproduction number (R_e), and case doubling time. Based on pre-restriction and Phase 1 R₀, we predicted new cases for the rest of the restriction phases, and we compared them with the actual number of cases during each phase. Furthermore, using the published and gray literature, we estimated the costs and savings of implementing these restrictions for the projected period, and we performed a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The estimated median R₀ during the different phases was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.45) for pre-lockdown, 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.82) for phase 1 (strict mobility restrictions), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.35) for phase 2 (extension of phase 1 with no restrictions on agricultural and essential services), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23) for phase 3 (extension of phase 2 with mobility relaxations in areas with few infections), and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.123) for phase 4 (implementation of localized lockdowns in high-case-load areas with fewer restrictions on other areas), respectively. The corresponding doubling time rate for cases (in days) was 17.78 (95% CI: 5.61, -15.19), 3.87 (95% CI: 3.15, 5.00), 10.37 (95% CI: 7.10, 19.30), 20.31 (95% CI: 10.70, 212.50), and 45.56 (95% CI: 20.50, -204.52). For the projected period, the cases could have reached 631,819 without the lockdown, as the actual reported number of cases was 64,975. From a healthcare perspective, the estimated total value of averted cases was INR 194.73 billion (USD 2.60 billion), resulting in net cost savings of 84.05%. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) for implementing the lockdown, rather than observing the natural course of the pandemic, was INR 33,812.15 (USD 450.83).

CONCLUSION

Maharashtra's early public health response delayed the pandemic and averted new cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic. However, we recommend that such restrictions be carefully used while considering the local socio-economic realities in countries like India.