Scaling up of HIV treatment for men who have sex with men in Bangkok: a modelling and costing study

Optimising HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and testing strategies in men who have sex with men in Australia, Thailand, and China: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Asia-Pacific region have a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection compared with the general population. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV is highly effective at preventing new HIV infections, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for MSM in different countries in the Asia-Pacific region with varying PrEP coverage and HIV testing frequencies remains unstudied. We aimed to analyse the economic and health benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral PrEP in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries within the Asia-Pacific region.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up among MSM in Australia, Thailand, and China. We assumed a static cohort of 100 000 MSM aged 18 years or older who were at risk of HIV infection, with a monthly cycle length over a 40-year time period. We evaluated hypothetical scenarios with universal PrEP coverage of 80% among 100 000 suitable MSM in each country. We modelled oral PrEP and CAB-LA for MSM with diverse HIV testing frequency strategies. We adopted the health-care system's perspective with a 3% annual discount rate. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured as additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, to compare different strategies with the status quo in each country. All costs were reported in 2021 US$. We also performed one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

FINDINGS

Compared with the status quo in each country, expanding oral PrEP to 80% of suitable MSM would avert 8·1% of new HIV infections in Australia, 14·5% in Thailand, and 26·4% in China in a 40-year period. Expanding oral PrEP use with 6-monthly HIV testing for both PrEP and non-PrEP users was cost-saving for Australia. Similarly, expanding oral PrEP use remained the most cost-effective strategy in both Thailand and China, but optimal testing frequency varied, with annual testing in Thailand (ICER $4707 per QALY gained) and 3-monthly testing in China (ICER $16 926 per QALY gained) for both PrEP and non-PrEP users. We also found that replacing oral PrEP with CAB-LA for MSM could avert more new HIV infections (12·8% in Australia, 27·6% in Thailand, and 32·8% in China), but implementing CAB-LA was not cost-effective due to its high cost. The cost of CAB-LA would need to be reduced by 50-90% and be used as a complementary strategy to oral PrEP to be cost-effective in these countries.

INTERPRETATION

Expanding oral PrEP use for MSM, with country-specific testing frequency, is cost-effective in Australia, Thailand, and China. Due to the high cost, CAB-LA is currently not affordable as a single-use strategy but might be offered as an additional option to oral PrEP.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Population impact and cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence-based diabetic retinopathy screening in people living with diabetes in Australia: a cost effectiveness analysis

Background

We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an artificial intelligence-(AI) based diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening system in the primary care setting for both non-Indigenous and Indigenous people living with diabetes in Australia.

Methods

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis between January 01, 2022 and August 01, 2023. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to simulate DR progression in a population of 1,197,818 non-Indigenous and 65,160 Indigenous Australians living with diabetes aged ≥20 years over 40 years. From a healthcare provider's perspective, we compared current practice to three primary care AI-based screening scenarios-(A) substitution of current manual grading, (B) scaling up to patient acceptance level, and (C) achieving universal screening. Study results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and net monetary benefits (NMB). A Willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of AU$50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and a discount rate of 3.5% were adopted in this study.

Findings

With the status quo, the non-Indigenous diabetic population was projected to develop 96,269 blindness cases, resulting in AU$13,039.6 m spending on DR screening and treatment during 2020-2060. In comparison, all three intervention scenarios were effective and cost-saving. In particular, if a universal screening program was to be implemented (Scenario C), it would prevent 38,347 blindness cases, gain 172,090 QALYs and save AU$595.8 m, leading to a BCR of 3.96 and NMB of AU$9,200 m. Similar findings were also reported in the Indigenous population. With the status quo, 3,396 Indigenous individuals would develop blindness, which would cost the health system AU$796.0 m during 2020-2060. All three intervention scenarios were cost-saving for the Indigenous population. Notably, universal AI-based DR screening (Scenario C) would prevent 1,211 blindness cases and gain 9,800 QALYs in the Indigenous population, leading to a saving of AU$19.2 m with a BCR of 1.62 and NMB of AU$509 m.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that implementing AI-based DR screening in primary care is highly effective and cost-saving in both Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations.

Funding

This project received grant funding from the Australian Government: the National Critical Research Infrastructure Initiative, Medical Research Future Fund (MRFAI00035) and the NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP1175405). The contents of the published material are solely the responsibility of the Administering Institution, a participating institution or individual authors and do not reflect the views of the NHMRC. This work was supported by the Global STEM Professorship Scheme (P0046113), the Fundamental Research Funds of the State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Project of Investigation on Health Status of Employees in Financial Industry in Guangzhou, China (Z012014075). The Centre for Eye Research Australia receives Operational Infrastructure Support from the Victorian State Government. W.H. is supported by the Melbourne Research Scholarship established by the University of Melbourne. The funding source had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

The Moderating Role of Social Support and HIV Stigma on the Association Between Depression and ART Adherence Among Young Thai Men Who Have Sex with Men

In Thailand, antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs still have difficulties reaching and promoting adherence among a key population - young men who have sex with men (YMSM) living with HIV. As such, we sought to examine potential psychosocial barriers that may contribute to suboptimal levels of ART adherence for this population. Data were drawn from a study of 214 YMSM living with HIV from Bangkok, Thailand. Linear regression models tested the association between depression and ART adherence, and whether social support and HIV-related stigma moderated that relationship. Multivariable models demonstrated social support was significantly associated with higher levels of ART adherence, and that there was a three-way interaction between depression, social support, and HIV-related stigma on ART adherence. These results further our understanding of the role of depression, stigma, and social support in ART adherence among Thai YMSM living with HIV, and that additional supports for YMSM with depression and HIV-related stigma are needed.

Shared-care models are highly effective and cost-effective for managing chronic hepatitis B in China: reinterpreting the primary care and specialty divide

Background

We evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of shared primary-specialty chronic hepatitis B (CHB) care models in China.

Methods

We constructed a decision-tree Markov model to simulate hepatitis B virus (HBV) disease progression in a cohort of 100,000 CHB individuals aged ≥18 years over their lifetime (aged 80). We evaluated the population impacts and cost-effectiveness in three scenarios: (1) status quo; (2) shared-care model with HBV testing and routine CHB follow-ups in primary care and antiviral treatment initiation in specialty care; and (3) shared-care model with HBV testing, treatment initiation and routine CHB follow-up in primary care and treatment for predetermined conditions in specialty care. We evaluated from a healthcare provider's perspective with 3% discounting rate and a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1-time China's GDP.

Findings

Compared with status quo, scenario 2 would result in an incremental cost of US$5.79-132.43m but a net gain of 328-16,993 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and prevention of 39-1935 HBV-related deaths over cohort's lifetime. Scenario 2 was not cost-effective with a WTP of 1-time GDP per capita, but became cost-effective when treatment initiation rate increased to 70%. In contrast, compared with status quo, secnario 3 would save US$144.59-192.93m in investment and achieve a net gain of 23,814-30,476 QALYs and prevention of 3074-3802 HBV-related deaths. Improving HBV antiviral treatment initiation among eligible CHB individuals substantially improved the cost-effectiveness of the shared-care models.

Interpretation

Shared-care models with HBV testing, follow up and referring of predetermined conditions to specialty care at an appropriate time, especially antiviral treatment initiation in primary care, are highly effective and cost-effective in China.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation

Background

China, which has the largest chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) burden, may expand antiviral therapy to attain the World Health Organization (WHO)-2030 goal of 65% reduction in mortality. We evaluated health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of chronic HBV infection treatments based on alanine transaminase (ALT) antiviral treatment initiation thresholds and coverage in China to identify an optimal strategy.

Methods

A decision-tree Markov state-transition model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral treatment for chronic HBV infection by simulating 136 scenarios by ALT treatment initiation thresholds (40 U/L, 35 U/L for males and 25 U/L for females, 30 U/L for males and 19 U/L for females, and treating HBsAg+ individuals regardless of ALT values), population age groups (18-80, 30-80, and 40-80 years), implementation durations (2023, 2028, and 2033) under and treatment coverages (20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored model uncertainty.

Findings

Besides the status quo, we finally simulated 135 treatment-expanding scenarios based on the cross combination of different thresholds of ALT, treatment coverages, population's age groups and implementation time. For the status quo, a cumulative incidence of 16,038-42,691 HBV-related complications and 3116-18,428 related deaths will happened between 2030 and 2050. When the treatment threshold is expanded to 'ALT > 35 in males & ALT > 25 in females' immediately without expanding treatment coverage, it will save 2554 HBV-related complications and 348 related deaths compared to the status quo among the whole cohort by 2030, and US$ 156 million more will be costed for gaining 2962 more QALYs. If we just expand the ALT threshold to ALT > 30 in males & ALT > 19 in females, 3247 HBV-related complications and 470 related deaths will be prevented by 2030 under the current treatment coverage of 20%, which will cost US$ 242 million, US$ 583 million or US$ 606 million more by the year of 2030, 2040 or 2050, respectively. Treatment expanded to HBsAg+ will save the largest number of HBV-related complications and death. This expanding strategy also results in large complications or death reduction when it is limited to patients older than 30 years or 40 years. Under this strategy, four scenarios (Treating HBsAg+ with coverage of 60% or 80% for patients older than 18 years or 30 years) showed the effectiveness in reaching the target before the year 2030. Among all the strategies, treatment expanded to HBsAg+ would cost the most while providing the highest total QALYs compared to other strategies with similar implementation scenarios. ALT thresholds of 30 U/L and 19 U/L for males and females, respectively, with 80% coverage for 18-80 years, can attain the goal by 2043.

Interpretation

Treating HBsAg+ individuals with 80% coverage for 18-80 years is optimal; earlier implementation of expanded antiviral treatment with a modified ALT threshold could decrease HBV-related complications and deaths to support the global target of 65% reduction in viral hepatitis B deaths.

Funding

This study was funded by Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research (BMU2022XY030); Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group (BMU2022XY030); The Chinese Foundations for Hepatitis Control and Prevention (2021ZC032); National Science and Technology Project on Development Assistance for Technology, Developing China-ASEAN Public Health Research and Development Collaborating Center (KY202101004); in part by National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC2505100).

Cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence-assisted liquid-based cytology testing for cervical cancer screening in China

Background

The 2021 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for cervical cancer screening recommend human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA or mRNA testing. Artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted liquid-based cytology (LBC) systems also have the potential to facilitate rapid scale-up of cervical cancer screening. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted LBC testing, compared with the manual LBC and HPV-DNA testing, for primary cervical cancer screening in China.

Methods

We developed a Markov model for a cohort of 100,000 women aged 30 years over a lifetime to simulate the natural history of cervical cancer progression. We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of 18 screening strategies (a combination of the three screening methods with six screening frequencies) from a healthcare provider's perspective. The willingness-to-pay threshold (US$30,828) was chosen as three times the Chinese per-capita gross domestic product in 2019. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the results.

Findings

Compared with no screening, all 18 screening strategies were cost-effective, with an ICER of $622-24,482 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. If HPV testing after scaling up to population level screening costs $10.80 or more, screening once every 5 years using AI-assisted LBC would be the most cost-effective strategy with an ICER of $8790/QALY gained compared with the lower-cost non-dominated strategy on the cost-effectiveness frontier. Its probability of being cost-effective was higher (55.4%) than other strategies. Sensitivity analyses showed that the most cost-effective strategy would become AI-assisted LBC testing once every 3 years if the sensitivity (74.1%) and specificity (95.6%) of this method were both reduced by ≥10%. The most cost-effective strategy would become HPV-DNA testing once every 5 years if the cost of AI-assisted LBC was more expensive than manual LBC or if the HPV-DNA test cost is slightly reduced (from $10.8 to <$9.4).

Interpretation

AI-assisted LBC screening once every 5 years could be more cost-effective than manually-read LBC. Using AI-assisted LBC could have comparable cost-effectiveness to HPV DNA screening, but the relative pricing of HPV DNA testing is critical in this result.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key R&D Program of China.

HIV-1 drug resistance genotyping success rates and correlates of Dried-blood spots and plasma specimen genotyping failure in a resource-limited setting

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 drug resistance genotyping is critical to the monitoring of antiretroviral treatment. Data on HIV-1 genotyping success rates of different laboratory specimen types from multiple sources is still scarce.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we determined the laboratory genotyping success rates (GSR) and assessed the correlates of genotyping failure of 6837 unpaired dried blood spot (DBS) and plasma specimens. Specimens from multiple studies in a resource-constrained setting were analysed in our laboratory between 2016 and 2019.

RESULTS

We noted an overall GSR of 65.7% and specific overall GSR for DBS and plasma of 49.8% and 85.9% respectively. The correlates of genotyping failure were viral load (VL) < 10,000 copies/mL (aOR 0.3 95% CI: 0.24-0.38; p < 0.0001), lack of viral load testing prior to genotyping (OR 0.85 95% CI: 0.77-0.94; p = 0.002), use of DBS specimens (aOR 0.10 95% CI: 0.08-0.14; p < 0.0001) and specimens from routine clinical diagnosis (aOR 1.4 95% CI: 1.10-1.75; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

We report rapidly decreasing HIV-1 genotyping success rates between 2016 and 2019 with increased use of DBS specimens for genotyping and note decreasing median viral loads over the years. We recommend improvement in DBS handling, pre-genotyping viral load testing to screen samples to enhance genotyping success and the development of more sensitive assays with well-designed primers to genotype specimens with low or undetectable viral load, especially in this era where virological suppression rates are rising due to increased antiretroviral therapy roll-out.

Cost-effectiveness of universal screening for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation

Background

China has the highest prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection worldwide. Universal HBV screening might enable China to reach the WHO 2030 target of 90% diagnostics, 80% treatment, and 65% HBV-related death reduction, and eventually elimination of viral hepatitis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing universal HBV screening in China and identified optimal screening strategies.

Methods

We used a Markov cohort model, inputting parameters based on data from previous studies and public databases, to assess the cost-effectiveness of four HBV serological screening strategies in China in different screening scenarios. We simulated universal screening scenarios in 15 adult age groups between 18 and 70 years, with different years of screening implementation (2021, 2026, and 2031) and compared to the status quo (ie, no universal screening); in total, we investigated 180 different screening scenarios. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the different screening strategies and the status quo (current screening strategy). We performed probabilistic and one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

Findings

With a willingness-to-pay level of three times the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (US$30 828), all universal screening scenarios in 2021 were cost-effective compared with the status quo. The serum HBsAg/HBsAb/HBeAg/HBeAb/HBcAb (five-test) screening strategy in people aged 18–70 years was the most cost-effective strategy in 2021 (ICER $18 295/quality-adjusted life-years [QALY] gained). This strategy remained the most cost-effective, when the willingness-to-pay threshold was reduced to 2 times GDP per capita. The two-test strategy for people aged 18–70 years became more cost-effective at lower willingness-to-pay levels. The five-test strategy could prevent 3·46 million liver-related deaths in China over the lifetime of the cohort. It remained the most cost-effective strategy when implementation was delayed until 2026 (ICER $20 183/QALY) and 2031 (ICER $23 123/QALY). Screening young people (18–30 years) will no longer be cost-effective in delayed scenarios.

Interpretation

The five-test universal screening strategy in people aged 18–70 years, implemented within the next 10 years, is the optimal HBV screening strategy for China. Other screening strategies could be cost-effective alternatives, if budget is limited in rural areas. Delaying strategy implementation reduces overall cost-effectiveness. Early screening initiation will aid global efforts in achieving viral hepatitis elimination.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

The costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Around two-thirds of all new HIV infections and 90% of syphilis cases occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Testing is a key strategy for the prevention and treatment of HIV and syphilis. Decision-makers in LMICs face considerable uncertainties about the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing. This paper synthesizes economic evidence on the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing interventions in LMICs and evidence on how costs change with the scale of delivery. We systematically searched multiple databases (Medline, Econlit, Embase, EMCARE, CINAHL, Global Health and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database) for peer-reviewed studies examining the costs of scaling up HIV and syphilis testing in LMICs. Thirty-five eligible studies were identified from 4869 unique citations. Most studies were conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa (N = 17) and most explored the costs of rapid HIV in facilities targeted the general population (N = 19). Only two studies focused on syphilis testing. Seventeen studies were cost analyses, 17 were cost-effectiveness analyses and 1 was cost-benefit analysis of HIV or syphilis testing. Most studies took a modelling approach (N = 25) and assumed costs increased linearly with scale. Ten studies examined cost efficiencies associated with scale, most reporting short-run economies of scale. Important drivers of the costs of scaling up included testing uptake and the price of test kits. The 'true' cost of scaling up testing is likely to be masked by the use of short-term decision frameworks, linear unit-cost projections (i.e. multiplying an average cost by a factor reflecting activity at a larger scale) and availability of health system capacity and infrastructure to supervise and support scale up. Cost data need to be routinely collected alongside other monitoring indicators as HIV and syphilis testing continues to be scaled up in LMICs.

The continuing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men and transgender women in the ASEAN region: implications for HIV policy and service programming

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Western urban areas have seen substantive decreases in new diagnoses of HIV infection. This paper explores whether such declines are present among MSM and transgender women (TGW) in Southeast Asia and discusses implications for HIV policies and programming. A scoping review was conducted of scientific publications and selected documents regarding the spread of HIV infection among MSM and TGW in major urban centres of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. Continued high HIV prevalence and incidence among MSM are found in integrated behavioural and biological surveillance (IBBS) and research studies. HIV prevalence among MSM under IBBS decreased only in Bangkok from 28.6% in 2014 to 10.3% in 2018, whereas it was increasing in Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, Vientiane, and Phnom Penh. HIV/AIDS case reports regarding new HIV infection diagnoses among MSM have started to decrease in Singapore since 2011 and have been plateauing in Metropolitan Manila since 2017. Where data were available, it was found that HIV prevalence among TGW was high and if IBBS was conducted, it was increasing. HIV prevalence among TGW under IBBS in Jakarta had risen to 34.0% (2015) and 14.0% (2019) in Phnom Penh. These findings suggest that most ASEAN member states have so far failed to effectively implement and scale-up scientifically proven biomedical HIV prevention measures and counter stigma and discrimination that impedes access to appropriate HIV prevention and treatment services for MSM and TGW.

Predicting the diagnosis of HIV and sexually transmitted infections among men who have sex with men using machine learning approaches

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop machine learning models and evaluate their performance in predicting HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) diagnosis based on a cohort of Australian men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS

We collected clinical records of 21,273 Australian MSM during 2011-2017. We compared accuracies for predicting HIV and STIs (syphilis, gonorrhoea, chlamydia) diagnosis using four machine learning approaches against a multivariable logistic regression (MLR) model.

RESULTS

Machine learning approaches consistently outperformed MLR. Gradient boosting machine (GBM) achieved the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for HIV (76.3%) and STIs (syphilis, 85.8%; gonorrhoea, 75.5%; chlamydia, 68.0%), followed by extreme gradient boosting (71.1%, 82.2%, 70.3%, 66.4%), random forest (72.0%, 81.9%, 67.2%, 64.3%), deep learning (75.8%, 81.0%, 67.5%, 65.4%) and MLR (69.8%, 80.1%, 67.2%, 63.2%). GBM models demonstrated the ten greatest predictors collectively explained 62.7-73.6% of variations in predicting HIV/STIs. STIs symptoms, past syphilis infection, age, time living in Australia, frequency of condom use with casual male sexual partners during receptive anal sex and the number of casual male sexual partners in the past 12 months were most commonly identified predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning approaches are advantageous over multivariable logistic regression models in predicting HIV/STIs diagnosis.

Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions

BACKGROUND

Health resources are limited, which means spending should be focused on the people, places and programs that matter most. Choosing the mix of programs to maximize a health outcome is termed allocative efficiency. Here, we extend the methodology of allocative efficiency to answer the question of how resources should be distributed among different geographic regions.

METHODS

We describe a novel geographical optimization algorithm, which has been implemented as an extension to the Optima HIV model. This algorithm identifies an optimal funding of services and programs across regions, such as multiple countries or multiple districts within a country. The algorithm consists of three steps: (1) calibrating the model to each region, (2) determining the optimal allocation for each region across a range of different budget levels, and (3) finding the budget level in each region that minimizes the outcome (such as reducing new HIV infections and/or HIV-related deaths), subject to the constraint of fixed total budget across all regions. As a case study, we applied this method to determine an illustrative allocation of HIV program funding across three representative oblasts (regions) in Ukraine (Mykolayiv, Poltava, and Zhytomyr) to minimize the number of new HIV infections.

RESULTS

Geographical optimization was found to identify solutions with better outcomes than would be possible by considering region-specific allocations alone. In the case of Ukraine, prior to optimization (i.e. with status quo spending), a total of 244,000 HIV-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated to occur from 2016 to 2030 across the three oblasts. With optimization within (but not between) oblasts, this was estimated to be reduced to 181,000. With geographical optimization (i.e., allowing reallocation of funds between oblasts), this was estimated to be further reduced to 173,000.

CONCLUSIONS

With the increasing availability of region- and even facility-level data, geographical optimization is likely to play an increasingly important role in health economic decision making. Although the largest gains are typically due to reallocating resources to the most effective interventions, especially treatment, further gains can be achieved by optimally reallocating resources between regions. Finally, the methods described here are not restricted to geographical optimization, and can be applied to other problems where competing resources need to be allocated with constraints, such as between diseases.

Scaling Up Human Immunodeficiency Virus Screening and Antiretroviral Therapy Among Men Who Have Sex With Men to Achieve the 90-90-90 Targets in China

INTRODUCTION

The Joint United Nations Programme on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome has proposed the 90-90-90 targets by 2020. Human immunodeficiency virus epidemic is spreading rapidly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. This study investigates how the scale-up of HIV testing and treatment in achieving the targets and its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We constructed a compartmental model to forecast the HIV epidemic in Chinese MSM based on various "test-and-treat" scale-up scenarios. We assessed their cost effectiveness based on the cost for each HIV infection, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) prevented by the scale-up.

RESULTS

If the current epidemic continued, HIV prevalence among Chinese MSM would increase from 9.2% in 2016 to 12.6% (9.2-15.6%) in 2020 and 16.2% (11.3-20.0%) in 2025. By 2020, 49.2% of infected MSM would be diagnosed and 40.1% of whom on treatment, falling short of the 90-90-90 targets, so would be even by 2025. To achieve these targets by 2020, additional 850,000 HIV screening tests and 112,500 person-years of antiretroviral treatment (ART) annually are necessary. This spending is US $478 million during 2016 to 2020, which almost tripled the status quo. However, by delaying to 2025, an investment of US $1210 million over 2016 to 2025 corresponding to 52% increase to the status quo, will enable extra 340,000 HIV screening tests and 60,000 person-year on ART annually. In both scenarios, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US $733 to 960 for each DALY prevented, indicating highly cost-effective scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving the 90-90-90 targets by 2020 requires steep increase in investment, but delaying the targets to 2025 is practical and cost-effective.

Modelling the Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of PrEP for HIV Transmission in MSM in China

Risk of HIV infection is high in Chinese MSM, with an annual HIV incidence ranging from 3.41 to 13.7/100 person-years. Tenofovir-based PrEP is effective in preventing HIV transmission in MSM. This study evaluates the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing PrEP in Chinese MSM over the next two decades. A compartmental model for HIV was used to forecast the impact of PrEP on number of infections, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted. We also provide an estimate of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the cost per DALY averted of the intervention. Without PrEP, there will be 1.1-3.0 million new infections and 0.7-2.3 million HIV-related deaths in the next two decades. Moderate PrEP coverage (50%) would prevent 0.17-0.32 million new HIV infections. At Truvada's current price in China, daily oral PrEP costs $46,813-52,008 per DALY averted and is not cost-effective; on-demand Truvada reduces ICER to $25,057-27,838 per DALY averted, marginally cost-effective; daily generic tenofovir-based regimens further reduce ICER to $3675-8963, wholly cost-effective. The cost of daily oral Truvada PrEP regimen would need to be reduced by half to achieve cost-effectiveness and realize the public health good of preventing hundreds of thousands of HIV infections among MSM in China.

Cost-Utility of Access to Care, a National HIV Linkage, Re-engagement and Retention in Care Program

Linkage to HIV medical care and on-going engagement in HIV medical care are vital for ending the HIV epidemic. However, little is known about the cost-utility of HIV linkage, re-engagement and retention (LRC) in care programs. This paper presents the cost-utility analysis of Access to Care, a national HIV LRC program. Using standard methods from the US Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, we calculated the cost-utility ratio. Seven Access to Care programs were cost-effective and two were cost-saving. This study adds to a small but growing body of evidence to support the cost-effectiveness of LRC programs.

Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in two hospitals in Thailand

INTRODUCTION

In 2014, the Government of Thailand recommended pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as an additional HIV prevention programme within Thailand's National Guidelines on HIV/AIDS Treatment Prevention. However, to date implementation and uptake of PrEP programmes have been limited, and evidence on the costs and the epidemiological and economic impact is not available.

METHODS

We estimated the costs associated with PrEP provision among men having sex with men (MSM) participating in a facility-based, prospective observational cohort study: the Test, Treat and Prevent HIV Programme in Thailand. We created a suite of scenarios to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP and sensitivity of the results to the model input parameters, including PrEP programme effectiveness, PrEP uptake among high-risk and low-risk MSM, baseline and future antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, condom use, unit cost of delivering PrEP, and the discount rate.

RESULTS

Drug costs accounted for 82.5% of the total cost of providing PrEP, followed by lab testing (8.2%) and personnel costs (7.8%). The estimated costs of providing the PrEP package in accordance with the national recommendation ranges from US$223 to US$311 per person per year. Based on our modelling results, we estimate that PrEP would be cost-effective when provided to either high-risk or all MSM. However, we found that the programme would be approximately 32% more cost-effective if offered to high-risk MSM than it would be if offered to all MSM, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$4,836 per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted and US$7,089 per DALY averted respectively. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves demonstrate that 80% of scenarios would be cost-effective when PrEP is provided solely to higher-risk MSM.

CONCLUSION

We provide the first estimates on cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP in the Asia-Pacific region, and offer insights on how to deliver PrEP in combination with ART. While the high drug cost poses a budgeting challenge, incorporating PrEP delivery into an existing ART programme could be a cost-effective strategy to prevent HIV infections among MSM in Thailand.

Influence of model assumptions about HIV disease progression after initiating or stopping treatment on estimates of infections and deaths averted by scaling up antiretroviral therapy

Background

Many mathematical models have investigated the population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART), using different assumptions about HIV disease progression on ART and among ART dropouts. We evaluated the influence of these assumptions on model projections of the number of infections and deaths prevented by expanded ART.

Methods

A new dynamic model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) was developed, which incorporated each of four alternative assumptions about disease progression used in previous models: (A) ART slows disease progression; (B) ART halts disease progression; (C) ART reverses disease progression by increasing CD4 count; (D) ART reverses disease progression, but disease progresses rapidly once treatment is stopped. The model was independently calibrated to HIV prevalence and ART coverage data from the United States under each progression assumption in turn. New HIV infections and HIV-related deaths averted over 10 years were compared for fixed ART coverage increases.

Results

Little absolute difference (<7 percentage points (pp)) in HIV infections averted over 10 years was seen between progression assumptions for the same increases in ART coverage (varied between 33% and 90%) if ART dropouts reinitiated ART at the same rate as ART-naïve MSM. Larger differences in the predicted fraction of HIV-related deaths averted were observed (up to 15pp). However, if ART dropouts could only reinitiate ART at CD4<200 cells/μl, assumption C predicted substantially larger fractions of HIV infections and deaths averted than other assumptions (up to 20pp and 37pp larger, respectively).

Conclusion

Different disease progression assumptions on and post-ART interruption did not affect the fraction of HIV infections averted with expanded ART, unless ART dropouts only re-initiated ART at low CD4 counts. Different disease progression assumptions had a larger influence on the fraction of HIV-related deaths averted with expanded ART.

Optimization by Adaptive Stochastic Descent

When standard optimization methods fail to find a satisfactory solution for a parameter fitting problem, a tempting recourse is to adjust parameters manually. While tedious, this approach can be surprisingly powerful in terms of achieving optimal or near-optimal solutions. This paper outlines an optimization algorithm, Adaptive Stochastic Descent (ASD), that has been designed to replicate the essential aspects of manual parameter fitting in an automated way. Specifically, ASD uses simple principles to form probabilistic assumptions about (a) which parameters have the greatest effect on the objective function, and (b) optimal step sizes for each parameter. We show that for a certain class of optimization problems (namely, those with a moderate to large number of scalar parameter dimensions, especially if some dimensions are more important than others), ASD is capable of minimizing the objective function with far fewer function evaluations than classic optimization methods, such as the Nelder-Mead nonlinear simplex, Levenberg-Marquardt gradient descent, simulated annealing, and genetic algorithms. As a case study, we show that ASD outperforms standard algorithms when used to determine how resources should be allocated in order to minimize new HIV infections in Swaziland.

Understanding the Targeting and Uptake of HIV Testing Among Gay and Bisexual Men Attending Sexual Health Clinics

We assessed trends in HIV testing outcomes during a period of clinic-based initiatives introduced to increase HIV testing among gay and bisexual men (GBM) attending sexual health clinics (SHCs) in New South Wales (NSW). A cohort of 25,487 HIV-negative GBM attending 32 SHCs in NSW (2009-2015) was classified into six sub-groups each year based on client-type (new/existing), risk-status (low/high-risk), and any recent HIV testing. Poisson regression methods were used to assess HIV testing outcomes in sub-groups of GBM. HIV testing outcomes and the sub-groups with greatest statistically significant annual increases were: individuals attending (26% in high-risk existing clients with recent testing); testing uptake (4% in low-risk existing clients with no recent testing); testing frequency (6% in low-risk existing clients with no recent testing and 5% in high-risk existing clients with recent testing); and total tests (31% in high-risk existing clients with recent testing). High-risk existing clients with recent testing had a 13% annual increase in the proportional contribution to total tests. Our findings show improved targeting of testing to high-risk GBM at NSW SHCs. The clinic-based initiatives should be considered for translation to other similar settings.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis: awareness, acceptability and risk compensation behaviour among men who have sex with men and the transgender population

OBJECTIVES

This exploratory study examined the facilitators of and barriers to acceptance of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and potential risk compensation behaviour emerging from its use among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender individuals (TGs) in India.

METHODS

A questionnaire was administered to 400 individuals registered with a targeted intervention programme. Logistic regression models were used to identify facilitators of and barriers to PrEP acceptance.

RESULTS

The respondents consisted of 68% MSM and 32% TGs. Risk behaviour categorization identified 40% as low risk, 41% as medium risk and, 19% as high risk for HIV infection. About 93% of the respondents were unaware of PrEP, but once informed about it, 99% were willing to use PrEP. The facilitators of PrEP acceptance were some schooling [odds ratio (OR) 2.16; P = 0.51], being married or in a live-in relationship (OR 2.08; P = 0.46), having a high calculated risk (OR 3.12; P = 0.33), and having a high self-perceived risk (OR 1.8; P = 0.35). Increasing age (OR 2.12; P = 0.04) was a significant barrier. TGs had higher odds of acceptance of PrEP under conditions of additional cost (OR 2.12; P = 0.02) and once-daily pill (OR 2.85; P = 0.04). Individuals identified as low risk for HIV infection showed lower odds of potential risk compensation, defined as more sexual partners (OR 0.8; P = 0.35), unsafe sex with new partners (OR 0.71; P = 0.16), and decreased condom use with regular partners (OR 0.95; P = 0.84), as compared with medium-risk individuals. The associations, although not statistically significant, are nevertheless important for public health action given the limited scientific evidence on PrEP use among MSM and TGs in India.

CONCLUSIONS

With high acceptability and a low likelihood of risk compensation behaviour, PrEP can be considered as an effective prevention strategy for HIV infection among MSM and TGs in India.

A qualitative study of Thai HIV-positive young men who have sex with men and transgender women demonstrates the need for eHealth interventions to optimize the HIV care continuum

In Thailand, young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and transgender women (TG) are disproportionately affected by HIV and have suboptimal care continuum outcomes. Although Thai YMSM and young TG are early adopters of emerging technologies and have high Internet and technology access and utilization, the potential of technology has not been harnessed to optimize the HIV treatment cascade. We interviewed 18 behaviorally HIV-infected YMSM and young TG regarding care challenges, identified how eHealth could address care needs, and elicited preferences for eHealth interventions. Participants reported struggling with individual and societal-level stigma which negatively impacted linkage to and retention in care, and antiretroviral therapy adherence. YMSM and young TG described inadequate in-person support services and heavily relied on random online resources to fill information and support gaps, but sometimes viewed them as untrustworthy or inconsistent. Participants universally endorsed the development of eHealth resources and proposed how they could ameliorate individual-level fears over stigma and improve public perceptions about HIV. Personalized and integrated eHealth interventions with interactive, user-driven structures, credible content, rewards for engagement, real-time counseling and reminder support could help overcome barriers YMSM and young TG face in traditional HIV healthcare systems and have the potential to improve care outcomes.

Psychosocial and Behavioral Characteristics of High-Risk Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM) of Unknown HIV Positive Serostatus in Bangkok, Thailand

HIV prevalence remains high in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok. Even though resources for HIV testing and treatment are available for all, a large proportion of MSM still do not get HIV tested. We studied high risk MSM who are unaware of their HIV status to help maximize effectiveness of our resources. Convenience sampling was conducted among MSM who came for HIV testing at the Thai Red Cross Anonymous Clinic and two popular drop-in centers in Bangkok. Inclusion criteria were MSM aged >18 years, have not been tested positive for HIV, who reported ≥1 of the following in the previous 6 months: condomless sex with a male, being a sex worker, or having a sexual transmitted infection diagnosis. Audio-Computer-Assisted Self-Interview was used to assess psychosocial profile, sexual risks, and HIV testing patterns prior to being informed of their HIV positive status. Among 499 high-risk MSM enrolled, the median age was 24.8 years and 112 (22 %) tested HIV-positive. Among the HIV-positive participants, 92 % self-identified as gay (versus bisexual), 39 % attained a bachelors degree or higher, 65 % had monthly income 10,000-29,999 baht ($280-830 USD), 10 % had vaginal or anal sex with a woman in the past 12 months, 39 % had condomless receptive sex with men and 21 % went to Lat Phrao to find a sexual partner. Compared to HIV negative MSM, HIV-positive MSM had less HIV testing: 31 % had ever been tested for HIV, 12 % had been tested in the past 6 months; but were more likely to guess correctly their positive status (31 %). Regarding psychosocial variables among HIV-positive MSM, 7 % had regular methamphetamine use in the past 3 months, 10 % had >2 sources of discrimination, and 8 % had >2 sources of discrimination due to being MSM. In multivariable model, age<30 year old, self-identified as gay, had monthly income <50,000 baht ($1400 USD), had anal sex with men in past 12 months, had >2 sources of discrimination because of being MSM, did not get HIV test in past 6 months, and guess of positive HIV were significantly associated with HIV positive status. Young MSM with lower socioeconomic status (SES) should be prioritized for innovative approaches to promoting awareness and uptake of HIV testing. Societal stigmatization of MSM should be addressed as a potential barrier to uptake of voluntary HIV testing. Resilience factors among these marginalized MSM who still test frequently and remain HIV-negative despite residing in a context with community viral loads and discrimination should also be studied in order to curb the HIV epidemic in Bangkok.

Differences Between Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM) with Low CD4 Cell Counts at Their First HIV Test and MSM with Higher CD4 Counts in Bangkok, Thailand

Although HIV prevalence remains high among Bangkok's MSM early HIV testing as an entry point to ART has not been successfully implemented among in this population. Men who present late for initial HIV testing are a particular concern in the context of the Bangkok HIV epidemic, in that if long-term positives have had condomless sex during the time that they remained untreated they are likely to have been efficient transmitters of infection, to say nothing of the implications for their own health. A sequential sample of MSM who tested HIV positive, and CD4 counts, was taken at the Thai Red Cross Anonymous Clinic and two drop-in centers in Bangkok. Inclusion criteria were MSM aged >18 years, having not tested HIV positive earlier, who reported ≥1 of the following in the previous 6 months: condomless sex with a male, being a sex worker, or having a sexual transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis. Analysis was conducted by distinguishing between three groups of CD4 counts: <200, 200-500, >500 cells/μ to identify the social and behavioral characteristics of the men who presented late for HIV testing. Median CD4 was 325 cells/μ(n = 95). MSM with initial CD4< 200 cells/μ were significantly more likely to report problematic alcohol use. They were also more likely to report receptive anal sex and more likely to be engaged in sex work. MSM with CD4< 200 cells/μ were less likely to report recent HIV testing. Main barriers to HIV testing included being afraid of finding out that they were HIV positive and concerns about efficacy and side effects of HIV treatment. HIV stigma and concerns about treatment are still widespread and are potential barriers to HIV care among MSM in Bangkok. These barriers may work to keep men from finding out their positive HIV status in a timely manner. Thai MSM need to be made aware of the current availability of friendly HIV testing and ART services, and public health programs need to work to change their perceptions regarding ART itself. These same types of strategies might also work to destigmatize HIV and MSM within Thai society as a whole.

Recent HIV Testing Among Young Men Who Have Sex with Men in Bangkok and Chiang Mai: HIV Testing and Prevention Strategies Must Be Enhanced in Thailand

HIV infection among men who have sex with men, particularly in Thai urban settings and among younger cohorts, is escalating. HIV testing and counseling (HTC) are important for prevention and obtaining treatment and care. We examine data from a 2013 survey of males, 15-24 years, reporting past-year sex with a male and living in Bangkok or Chiang Mai. Almost three quarters of young MSM (YMSM) in Bangkok and only 27 % in Chiang Mai had an HIV test in the previous year. Associations for HIV testing varied between cities, although having employment increased the odds of HIV testing for both cities. In Bangkok, family knowledge of same sex attraction and talking to parents/guardians about HIV/AIDS had higher odds of HIV testing. Expanded HTC coverage is needed for YMSM in Chiang Mai. All health centers providing HTC, including those targeting MSM, need to address the specific needs of younger cohorts.

Incidence of and temporal relationships between HIV, herpes simplex II virus, and syphilis among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand: an observational cohort

Background

High HIV incidence has been detected among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Thailand, but the relationship and timing of HIV, herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2), and syphilis is unknown. This analysis measures incidence, temporal relationships, and risk factors for HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis among at-risk MSM in the Bangkok MSM Cohort Study.

Methods

Between April 2006 and December 2010, 960 men negative for HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis at entry enrolled and contributed 12–60 months of follow-up data. Behavioral questionnaires were administered at each visit; testing for HIV antibody was performed at each visit, while testing for syphilis and HSV-2 were performed at 12 month intervals. We calculated HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis incidence, assessed risk factors with complementary log-log regression, and among co-infected men, measured temporal relationships between infections with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and paired t-test.

Results

The total number of infections and incidence density for HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis were 159 infections and 4.7 cases/100 PY (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 4.0–5.4), 128 infections and 4.5/100 PY (95 % CI: 3.9–5.5), and 65 infections and 1.9/100 PY (95 % CI: 1.5–2.5), respectively. Among men acquiring >1 infection during the cohort period, mean time to HIV and HSV-2 infection was similar (2.5 vs. 2.9 years; p = 0.24), while syphilis occurred significantly later following HIV (4.0 vs. 2.8 years, p < 0.01) or HSV-2 (3.8 vs. 2.8 years, p = 0.04) infection. The strongest independent predictor of any single infection in adjusted analysis was acquisition of another infection; risk of syphilis (Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) = 3.49, 95 % CI: 1.89–6.42) or HIV (AHR = 2.26, 95 % CI: 1.47–3.48) acquisition during the cohort was significantly higher among men with incident HSV-2 infection. No single independent behavioral factor was common to HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis acquisition.

Conclusion

HIV and HSV-2 incidence was high among this Thai MSM cohort. However, acquisition of HIV and co-infection with either HSV-2 or syphilis was low during the time frame men were in the cohort. Evaluation of behavioral risk factors for these infections suggests different risks and possible different networks.

Correlates of HIV Testing Experience among Migrant Workers from Myanmar Residing in Thailand: A Secondary Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

Thailand continues to attract an increasing number of migrant workers (MW) from neighboring countries including mainly Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos; however, little is known about the extent to which MWs from these countries have access to HIV prevention, treatment, and care services. We used data from the baseline survey of the Prevention of HIV/AIDS among MWs in Thailand (PHAMIT-2) project to document the prevalence of, and factors associated with, HIV testing among MWs from Myanmar, the largest group of MWs in Thailand.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The baseline survey of PHAMIT-2 was conducted in 2010 among MWs from Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos in 10 purposely-selected provinces of Thailand. Of the 1,034 participants who qualified for the analysis to identify correlates of HIV testing, only 5.3% reported ever having been tested for HIV. Factors associated with HIV testing included having a secondary or higher education level (AOR, 2.58; CI, 1.36-4.90; P = 0.004), being female (AOR, 1.96; CI, 1.05-3.66; P = 0.033), knowing someone who died of AIDS (AOR, 1.81; CI, 1.00-3.27; P = 0.048), working in the fishery sector (AOR, 2.51; CI, 1.28-4.92; P = 0.007), and not having a work permit (AOR, 3.71; CI, 1.36-10.13; P = 0.010).

CONCLUSION

Our study, in addition to revealing significantly low HIV testing among MWs from Myanmar, identifies important barriers to HIV testing which could be addressed through interventions that promote migrants' culturally-sensitive and friendly service, for example by facilitating flow of information about places for HIV testing, availability of language assistance, and ensuring confidentiality of HIV testing.

Factors Influencing Access to Sexual Health Care Among Behaviorally Bisexual Men in Vientiane, Laos: A Qualitative Exploration

In Laos, men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV, and bisexual behavior among men is common. We conducted a qualitative study to explore access and influences on sexual health care seeking among bisexual men in Vientiane. In 2013, behaviorally bisexual men were recruited from bars, clubs and dormitories for 5 focus group discussions and 11 in-depth interviews. Participants (aged 18-35 years) commonly reported high-risk sexual behaviors, yet most had never been tested for HIV, and none reported testing for sexually transmitted infections. Common barriers to testing were low perception of risk, expectation of symptoms, fear of HIV, shyness, perceived stigma, confidentiality concerns, and waiting times. Many men were unaware of available services. Most clinics cannot provide comprehensive HIV and sexually transmitted infection services. Strategies are needed to generate demand for testing, improve the capacity of sexual health care providers, and promote available services among behaviorally bisexual men in Vientiane.