High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries

Health Effects of Cyclones: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Studies

BACKGROUND

More intense cyclones are expected in the future as a result of climate change. A comprehensive review is urgently needed to summarize and update the evidence on the health effects of cyclones.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to provide a systematic review with meta-analysis of current evidence on the risks of all reported health outcomes related to cyclones and to identify research gaps and make recommendations for further research.

METHODS

We systematically searched five electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) for relevant studies in English published before 21 December 2022. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, we developed inclusion criteria, screened the literature, and included epidemiological studies with a quantitative risk assessment of any mortality or morbidity-related outcomes associated with cyclone exposures. We extracted key data and assessed study quality for these studies and applied meta-analyses to quantify the overall effect estimate and the heterogeneity of comparable studies.

RESULTS

In total, 71 studies from eight countries (the United States, China, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia, Brazil), mostly the United States, were included in the review. These studies investigated the all-cause and cause-specific mortality, as well as morbidity related to injury, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), respiratory diseases, infectious diseases, mental disorders, adverse birth outcomes, cancer, diabetes, and other outcomes (e.g., suicide rates, gender-based violence). Studies mostly included only one high-amplitude cyclone (cyclones with a Saffir-Simpson category of 4 or 5, i.e., Hurricanes Katrina or Sandy) and focused on mental disorders morbidity and all-cause mortality and hospitalizations. Consistently elevated risks of overall mental health morbidity, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), as well as all-cause mortality or hospitalizations, were found to be associated with cyclones. However, the results for other outcomes were generally mixed or limited. A statistically significant overall relative risk of 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.13], 1.18 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.25), 1.15 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.18), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.50) was observed for all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalizations, respiratory disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations, respectively, after cyclone exposures, whereas no statistically significant risks were identified for diabetes mortality, heart disease mortality, and preterm birth. High between-study heterogeneity was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

There is generally consistent evidence supporting the notion that high-amplitude cyclones could significantly increase risks of mental disorders, especially for PTSD, as well as mortality and hospitalizations, but the evidence for other health outcomes, such as chronic diseases (e.g., CVDs, cancer, diabetes), and adverse birth outcomes remains limited or inconsistent. More studies with rigorous exposure assessment, of larger spatial and temporal scales, and using advanced modeling strategy are warranted in the future, especially for those small cyclone-prone countries or regions with low and middle incomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12158.

Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study

BACKGROUND

The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019.

METHODS

The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5° × 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects.

FINDINGS

Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Health disparities among older adults following tropical cyclone exposure in Florida

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant threat to human health, and research is needed to identify high-risk subpopulations. We investigated whether hospitalization risks from TCs in Florida (FL), United States, varied across individuals and communities. We modeled the associations between all storms in FL from 1999 to 2016 and over 3.5 million Medicare hospitalizations for respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We estimated the relative risk (RR), comparing hospitalizations during TC-periods (2 days before to 7 days after) to matched non-TC-periods. We then separately modeled the associations in relation to individual and community characteristics. TCs were associated with elevated risk of RD hospitalizations (RR: 4.37, 95% CI: 3.08, 6.19), but not CVD (RR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.24). There was limited evidence of modification by individual characteristics (age, sex, or Medicaid eligibility); however, risks were elevated in communities with higher poverty or lower homeownership (for CVD hospitalizations) and in denser or more urban communities (for RD hospitalizations). More research is needed to understand the potential mechanisms and causal pathways that might account for the observed differences in the association between tropical cyclones and hospitalizations across communities.

Perspectives on the Health Effects of Hurricanes: A Review and Challenges

Hurricanes are devastating natural disasters which dramatically modify the physical landscape and alter the socio-physical and biochemical characteristics of the environment, thus exposing the affected communities to new environmental stressors, which persist for weeks to months after the hurricane. This paper has three aims. First, it conceptualizes potential direct and indirect health effects of hurricanes and provides an overview of factors that exacerbate the health effects of hurricanes. Second, it summarizes the literature on the health impact of hurricanes. Finally, it examines the time lag between the hurricane (landfall) and the occurrence of diseases. Two major findings emerge from this paper. Hurricanes are shown to cause and exacerbate multiple diseases, and most adverse health impacts peak within six months following hurricanes. However, chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and mental disorders, continue to occur for years following the hurricane impact.

Human Vulnerability to Landslides

Landslides pose a devastating threat to human health, killing thousands of people annually. Human vulnerability is a crucial element of landslide risk reduction, yet up until now, all methods for estimating the human consequences of landslides rely on subjective, expert judgment. Furthermore, these methods do not explore the underlying causes of mortality or inform strategies to reduce landslide risk. In light of these issues, we develop a data-driven tool to estimate an individual's probability of death based on landslide intensity, which can be used directly in landslide risk assessment. We find that between inundation depths of approximately 1-6 m, human behavior is the primary driver of mortality. Landslide vulnerability is strongly correlated with the economic development of a region, but landslide losses are not stratified by gender and age to the degree of other natural hazards. We observe that relatively simple actions, such as moving to an upper floor or a prepared refuge space, increase the odds of survival by up to a factor of 12. Additionally, community-scale hazard awareness programs and training for citizen first responders offer a potent means to maximize survival rates in landslides.

Environmental health effects attributed to toxic and infectious agents following hurricanes, cyclones, flash floods and major hydrometeorological events

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as hurricanes and cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and often associated with flash floods in coastal, urbanized and industrial areas. Preparedness and response measures need to concentrate on toxicological and infectious hazards, the potential impact on environmental health, and threat to human lives. The recognition of the danger of flood water after hurricanes is critical. Effective health management needs to consider the likelihood and specific risks of toxic agents present in waters contaminated by chemical spills, bio-toxins, waste, sewage, and water-borne pathogens. Despite significant progress in the ability to rapidly detect and test water for a wide range of chemicals and pathogens, there has been a lack of implementation to adapt toxicity measurements in the context of flash and hurricane-induced flooding. The aim of this review was to highlight the need to collect and analyze data on toxicity of flood waters to understand the risks and prepare vulnerable communities and first responders. It is proposed that new and routinely used technologies be employed during disaster response to rapidly assess toxicity and infectious disease threats, and subsequently take necessary remedial actions.