Coronavirus conspiracy beliefs in the German-speaking general population: endorsement rates and links to reasoning biases and paranoia

Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty

Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations.

Differentiating paranoia and conspiracy mentality using a network approach

Although mostly considered distinct, conspiracy mentality and paranoia share conceptual similarities (e.g., persecutory content, resistance to disconfirming evidence). Using self-report data from a large and multinational online sample (N = 2510; from the UK, the US, Hong Kong, Germany, and Australia), we examined whether paranoia and conspiracy mentality represent distinct latent constructs in exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Utilising network analysis, we then explored common and unique correlates of paranoia and conspiracy mentality while accounting for their shared variance. Across sites, paranoia and conspiracy mentality presented distinct, yet weakly correlated (r = 0.26), constructs. Both were associated with past traumatic experiences, holding negative beliefs about the self and other people, sleep problems, and a tendency to worry. However, paranoia was related to increased negative affect (i.e., anxiety) and decreased social support, whereas the opposite pattern was observed for conspiracy mentality (i.e., decreased anxiety and depression, increased social support). Paranoia and conspiracy mentality are related but not the same constructs. Their similar and distinct correlates point to common and unique risk factors and underlying mechanisms.

Resolving the Delusion Paradox

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

The neurocomputational framework of predictive processing (PP) provides a promising approach to explaining delusions, a key symptom of psychotic disorders. According to PP, the brain makes inferences about the world by weighing prior beliefs against the available sensory data. Mismatches between prior beliefs and sensory data result in prediction errors that may update the brain's model of the world. Psychosis has been associated with reduced weighting of priors relative to the sensory data. However, delusional beliefs are highly resistant to change, suggesting increased rather than decreased weighting of priors. We propose that this "delusion paradox" can be resolved within a hierarchical PP model: Reduced weighting of prior beliefs at low hierarchical levels may be compensated by an increased influence of higher-order beliefs represented at high hierarchical levels, including delusional beliefs. This may sculpt perceptual processing into conformity with delusions and foster their resistance to contradictory evidence.

STUDY DESIGN

We review several lines of experimental evidence on low- and high-level processes, and their neurocognitive underpinnings in delusion-related phenotypes and link them to predicted processing.

STUDY RESULTS

The reviewed evidence supports the notion of decreased weighting of low-level priors and increased weighting of high-level priors, in both delusional and delusion-prone individuals. Moreover, we highlight the role of prefrontal cortex as a neural basis for the increased weighting of high-level prior beliefs and discuss possible clinical implications of the proposed hierarchical predictive-processing model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review suggests the delusion paradox can be resolved within a hierarchical PP model.

Pandemic paranoia in the general population: international prevalence and sociodemographic profile

BACKGROUND

The term 'pandemic paranoia' has been coined to refer to heightened levels of mistrust and suspicion towards other people specifically due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we examine the international prevalence of pandemic paranoia in the general population and its associated sociodemographic profile.

METHODS

A representative international sample of general population adults (N = 2510) from five sites (USA N = 535, Germany N = 516, UK N = 512, Australia N = 502 and Hong Kong N = 445) were recruited using stratified quota sampling (for age, sex, educational attainment) and completed the Pandemic Paranoia Scale (PPS).

RESULTS

The overall prevalence rate of pandemic paranoia was 19%, and was highest in Australia and lowest in Germany. On the subscales of the PPS, prevalence was 11% for persecutory threat, 29% for paranoid conspiracy and 37% for interpersonal mistrust. Site and general paranoia significantly predicted pandemic paranoia. Sociodemographic variables (lower age, higher population size and income, being male, employed and no migrant status) explained additional variance and significantly improved prediction of pandemic paranoia.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic paranoia was relatively common in a representative sample of the general population across five international sites. Sociodemographic variables explained a small but significant amount of the variance in pandemic paranoia.

Intermediate levels of scientific knowledge are associated with overconfidence and negative attitudes towards science

Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and it is particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one's own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. However, it is not clear how confidence varies with knowledge. Here, we examine four large surveys, spanning 30 years in Europe and the United States and propose a new confidence metric. This metric does not rely on self-reporting or peer comparison, operationalizing (over)confidence as the tendency to give incorrect answers rather than 'don't know' responses to questions on scientific facts. We find a nonlinear relationship between knowledge and confidence, with overconfidence (the confidence gap) peaking at intermediate levels of actual scientific knowledge. These high-confidence/intermediate-knowledge groups also display the least positive attitudes towards science. These results differ from current models and, by identifying specific audiences, can help inform science communication strategies.

How Media Reports on COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Impact Consensus Beliefs and Protective Action: A Randomized Controlled Online Trial

This study examines the influence of news coverage on coronavirus disease (COVID)-related conspiracy theories on consensus perceptions regarding the seriousness of COVID-19 and its impact on attitudes and behaviors. In an online experiment, 395 participants either watched a report containing conspiracy theories, scientific facts, or information about a political summit, and they subsequently completed a questionnaire. Viewing reports on conspiracy theories lead to higher assessments of consensus compared with other reports. Perceived consensus correlated positively with attitudes toward COVID, which further correlated positively with behavior. The study shows that news reports can bias assessments of consensus, which has implications for public communication.

Are informal caregivers more likely to believe in conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic?: Findings of a representative study from Germany

OBJECTIVES

This study analyzed the conspiracy mentality of informal caregivers for older persons compared to non-caregivers and whether this association was dependent on age.

METHODS

The sample was collected randomly from a population-based online panel (forsa.omninet) and represents individuals aged ≥40 years from Germany. In total, 3022 participants were questioned about conspiracy mentality (Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire), informal care provision (N = 489 informal caregivers of older adults), and sociodemographic background. Data assessment took place between 4^th and 19^th March 2021 and the questions referred to the time between December 2020 and March 2021.

RESULTS

No significant differences were found between informal caregivers and non-caregivers. A significant interaction effect was found, indicating a decrease of conspiracy mentality among non-caregivers and an increase among informal caregivers with higher age. After stratifying by gender, this effect was found only among female informal caregivers.

CONCLUSION

Middle-aged informal caregivers had a lower, and older-aged a higher, susceptibility to conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to non-caregivers. The results indicate that providing care could be protective among middle-aged individuals, whereas older informal caregivers may benefit from interventions to reduce susceptibility to conspiracy theories and the associated risks for health and wellbeing.

Contemporary trends in psychological research on conspiracy beliefs. A systematic review

Background

The number of psychological studies on conspiracy beliefs has been systematically growing for about a dozen years, but in recent years, the trend has intensified. We provided a review covering the psychological literature on conspiracy beliefs from 2018 to 2021. Halfway through this period, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, accompanied by an explosion of movements based on conspiracy theories, intensifying researchers' interest in this issue.

Methods

Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, the review systematically searched for relevant journal articles published between 2018 and 2021. A search was done on Scopus and Web of Science (only peer-reviewed journals). A study was included if it contained primary empirical data, if specific or general conspiracy belief(s) were measured and if its correlation with at least one other psychological variable was reported. All the studies were grouped for the descriptive analysis according to the methodology used, the participants' characteristics, the continent of origin, the sample size, and the conspiracy beliefs measurement tools. Due to substantial methodological heterogeneity of the studies, narrative synthesis was performed. The five researchers were assigned specific roles at each stage of the analysis to ensure the highest quality of the research.

Results

Following the proposed methodology, 308 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility and 274 articles (417 studies) meeting the inclusion criteria were identified and included in the review. Almost half of the studies (49.6%) were conducted in European countries. The vast majority of the studies (85.7%) were carried out on samples of adult respondents. The research presents antecedents as well as (potential) consequences of conspiracy beliefs. We grouped the antecedents of conspiracy beliefs into six categories: cognitive (e.g., thinking style) motivational (e.g., uncertainty avoidance), personality (e.g., collective narcissism), psychopathology (e.g., Dark Triad traits), political (e.g., ideological orientation), and sociocultural factors (e.g., collectivism).

Conclusion and limitations

The research presents evidence on the links between conspiracy beliefs and a range of attitudes and behaviors considered unfavorable from the point of view of individuals and of the society at large. It turned out that different constructs of conspiracy thinking interact with each other. The limitations of the study are discussed in the last part of the article.

Conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 guideline adherence in adolescent psychiatric outpatients: the predictive role of adverse childhood experiences

BACKGROUND

Conspiracy beliefs have become widespread throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies have shown that endorsing conspiracy beliefs leads to lower protective guideline adherence (i.e., wearing face masks), posing a threat to public health measures. The current study expands this research across the lifespan, i.e., in a sample of adolescents with mental health problems. Here, we investigated the association between conspiracy beliefs and guideline adherence while also exploring the predictors of conspiracy beliefs.

METHODS

N = 93 adolescent psychiatric outpatients (57% female, mean age: 15.8) were assessed using anonymous paper-pencil questionnaires. Endorsement of generic and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs was assessed, in addition to items measuring adherence to protective guidelines and mental health (stress, depressive symptoms, emotional/behavioral problems, and adverse childhood experiences). Multiple regressions and supervised machine learning (conditional random forests) were used for analyses.

RESULTS

Fourteen percent of our sample fully endorsed at least one COVID-19 conspiracy theory, while protective guidelines adherence was relatively high (M = 4.92, on a scale from 1 to 7). The endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs-but not of generic conspiracy beliefs-was associated with lower guideline adherence (β = - 0.32, 95% CI - 0.53 to - 0.11, p < .001). Conditional random forests suggested that adverse childhood experiences and peer and conduct problems were relevant predictors of both conspiracy belief categories.

CONCLUSION

While a significant proportion of our sample of adolescents in psychiatric treatment endorsed conspiracy beliefs, the majority did not. Furthermore, and to some degree, contrary to public perception, we found that adolescents show relatively good adherence to public health measures-even while experiencing a high degree of mental distress. The predictive value of adverse childhood experiences and peer/conduct problems for conspiracy beliefs might be explained by compensatory mechanisms to ensure the safety, structure, and inclusion that conspiracies provide.

Who falls for fake news? Psychological and clinical profiling evidence of fake news consumers

Awareness of the potential psychological significance of false news increased during the coronavirus pandemic, however, its impact on psychopathology and individual differences remains unclear. Acknowledging this, the authors investigated the psychological and psychopathological profiles that characterize fake news consumption. A total of 1452 volunteers from the general population with no previous psychiatric history participated. They responded to clinical psychopathology assessment tests. Respondents solved a fake news screening test, which allowed them to be allocated to a quasi-experimental condition: group 1 (non-fake news consumers) or group 2 (fake news consumers). Mean comparison, Bayesian inference, and multiple regression analyses were applied. Participants with a schizotypal, paranoid, and histrionic personality were ineffective at detecting fake news. They were also more vulnerable to suffer its negative effects. Specifically, they displayed higher levels of anxiety and committed more cognitive biases based on suggestibility and the Barnum Effect. No significant effects on psychotic symptomatology or affective mood states were observed. Corresponding to these outcomes, two clinical and therapeutic recommendations related to the reduction of the Barnum Effect and the reinterpretation of digital media sensationalism were made. The impact of fake news and possible ways of prevention are discussed.

Psychotic-like experiences in the lonely predict conspiratorial beliefs and are associated with the diet during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the occurrence of conspiracy theories. It has been suggested that a greater endorsement of these theories may be associated with psychotic-like experiences (PLEs), as well as with social isolation. In this preregistered study, we investigated whether both PLEs and measures of social isolation (e.g., loneliness) can predict conspiratorial beliefs and, if so, which of these variables can mediate the association with conspiratorial beliefs. Furthermore, based on previous studies on schizophrenia, we explored whether the diet is associated with PLEs and conspiratorial beliefs. Participants (N = 142) completed online questionnaires measuring PLEs, social isolation, mental well-being, and conspiratorial beliefs. They also submitted their daily food intake for a week using a smartphone app. We found that loneliness predicted the endorsement of conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 lockdown. Strikingly, the proneness to experience subclinical psychotic symptoms played an underlying mediating role. In addition, these subclinical symptoms were associated with lower fruit, carbohydrate, and iron intakes, as well as with higher fat intake. Our results add insights into how conspiratorial beliefs can affect individuals’ mental health and relationships. Moreover, these results open the avenue for potential novel intervention strategies to optimize food intake in individuals with PLEs.

Depression, reduced education, and bias perceptions as risk factors of beliefs in misinformation

The spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories related to COVID‐19 has represented one of the several undesirable effects of the current pandemic. In understanding why people can be more or less at risk to believe in misinformation, emotional distress and education could play a crucial role. The present study aims to analyze the relationship among depressive symptoms, education, and beliefs in misinformation about COVID-19 during the early phase of the pandemic. We do this through a cross-sectional study carried out on a random and representative sample of the Italian population that allows us to go and verify the co-evolution of many factors: i.e., beliefs in misinformation, symptoms of depression, perceptions about COVID-19, ways in which citizens got informed about the pandemic, and sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, education). The results show that the relationship between depression and beliefs in misinformation exists and is more complex than hypothesized because it is mediated by individual perceptions. In particular, the most at-risk people to believe in misinformation show higher bias perceptions, higher depression, and lower education. Practical implications are discussed suggesting a supportive intervention at both individual and social levels.

Reflective thinking predicts lower conspiracy beliefs: A meta-analysis

One of the many established predictors of conspiracy beliefs is reflective thinking, but no meta-analysis so far has examined this relationship. In the current meta-analysis of published and unpublished correlational data (145 samples, 181 effect sizes), we found a significant negative association between reflective thinking and conspiracy beliefs with a medium-level effect size (r = –.189) . Similar levels of correlations were found across different types of measures (self-report vs. performance-based) and conspiracy beliefs (generic vs. specific). Further, no evidence suggested publication bias in this body of work. Suggestions for future research are discussed.

COVID-19 conspiracy ideation is associated with the delusion proneness trait and resistance to update of beliefs

The rapid spread of conspiracy ideas associated with the recent COVID-19 pandemic represents a major threat to the ongoing and coming vaccination programs. Yet, the cognitive factors underlying the pandemic-related conspiracy beliefs are not well described. We hypothesized that such cognitive style is driven by delusion proneness, a trait phenotype associated with formation of delusion-like beliefs that exists on a continuum in the normal population. To probe this hypothesis, we developed a COVID-19 conspiracy questionnaire (CCQ) and assessed 577 subjects online. Their responses clustered into three factors that included Conspiracy, Distrust and Fear/Action as identified using principal component analysis. We then showed that CCQ (in particular the Conspiracy and Distrust factors) related both to general delusion proneness assessed with Peter's Delusion Inventory (PDI) as well as resistance to belief update using a Bias Against Disconfirmatory Evidence (BADE) task. Further, linear regression and pathway analyses suggested a specific contribution of BADE to CCQ not directly explained by PDI. Importantly, the main results remained significant when using a truncated version of the PDI where questions on paranoia were removed (in order to avoid circular evidence), and when adjusting for ADHD- and autistic traits (that are known to be substantially related to delusion proneness). Altogether, our results strongly suggest that pandemic-related conspiracy ideation is associated with delusion proneness trait phenotype.

Antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: A systematic review

RATIONALE

Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories can have severe consequences; it is therefore crucial to understand this phenomenon, in its similarities with general conspiracy belief, but also in how it is context-dependent.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive overview of the available research on COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and to synthesise this research to make it widely accessible.

METHODS

We present a synthesis of COVID-19 conspiracy belief research from 85 international articles, identified and appraised through a systematic review, in line with contemporary protocols and guidelines for systematic reviews.

RESULTS

We identify a number of potential antecedents of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs (individual differences, personality traits, demographic variables, attitudes, thinking styles and biases, group identity, trust in authorities, and social media use), their consequences (protective behaviours, self-centred and misguided behaviours such as hoarding and pseudoscientific health practices, vaccination intentions, psychological wellbeing, and other negative social consequences such as discrimination and violence), and the effect sizes of their relations with the conspiracy beliefs.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that understanding both the potential antecedents and consequences of conspiracy beliefs and how they are context-dependent is highly important to tackle them, whether in the COVID-19 pandemic or future threats, such as that of climate change.

Willingness to vaccinate against SARS-CoV-2: The role of reasoning biases and conspiracist ideation

BACKGR1OUND: Widespread vaccine hesitancy and refusal complicate containment of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Extant research indicates that biased reasoning and conspiracist ideation discourage vaccination. However, causal pathways from these constructs to vaccine hesitancy and refusal remain underspecified, impeding efforts to intervene and increase vaccine uptake.

METHOD

554 participants who denied prior SARS-CoV-2 vaccination completed self-report measures of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intentions, conspiracist ideation, and constructs from the Health Belief Model of medical decision-making (such as perceived vaccine dangerousness) along with tasks measuring reasoning biases (such as those concerning data gathering behavior). Cutting-edge machine learning algorithms (Greedy Fast Causal Inference) and psychometric network analysis were used to elucidate causal pathways to (and from) vaccine intentions.

RESULTS

Results indicated that a bias toward reduced data gathering during reasoning may cause paranoia, increasing the perceived dangerousness of vaccines and thereby reducing willingness to vaccinate. Existing interventions that target data gathering and paranoia therefore hold promise for encouraging vaccination. Additionally, reduced willingness to vaccinate was identified as a likely cause of belief in conspiracy theories, subverting the common assumption that the opposite causal relation exists. Finally, perceived severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and perceived vaccine dangerousness (but not effectiveness) were potential direct causes of willingness to vaccinate, providing partial support for the Health Belief Model's applicability to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

These insights significantly advance our understanding of the underpinnings of vaccine intentions and should scaffold efforts to prepare more effective interventions on hesitancy for deployment during future pandemics.

A Global Map of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Rates per Country: An Updated Concise Narrative Review

The delay or refusal of vaccination, which defines vaccine hesitancy, is a major challenge to successful control of COVID-19 epidemic. The huge number of publications addressing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy necessitates periodic review to provide a concise summary of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates worldwide. In the current narrative review, data on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates were retrieved from surveys in 114 countries/territories. In East and Southern Africa (n = 9), the highest COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate was reported in Ethiopia (92%), while the lowest rate was reported in Zimbabwe (50%). In West/Central Africa (n = 13), the highest rate was reported in Niger (93%), while the lowest rate was reported in Cameroon (15%). In Asia and the Pacific (n = 16), the highest rates were reported in Nepal and Vietnam (97%), while the lowest rate was reported in Hong Kong (42%). In Eastern Europe/Central Asia (n = 7), the highest rates were reported in Montenegro (69%) and Kazakhstan (64%), while the lowest rate was reported in Russia (30%). In Latin America and the Caribbean (n = 20), the highest rate was reported in Mexico (88%), while the lowest rate was reported in Haiti (43%). In the Middle East/North Africa (MENA, n = 22), the highest rate was reported in Tunisia (92%), while the lowest rate was reported in Iraq (13%). In Western/Central Europe and North America (n = 27), the highest rates were reported in Canada (91%) and Norway (89%), while the lowest rates were reported in Cyprus and Portugal (35%). COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates ≥60% were seen in 72/114 countries/territories, compared to 42 countries/territories with rates between 13% and 59%. The phenomenon of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy appeared more pronounced in the MENA, Europe and Central Asia, and Western/Central Africa. More studies are recommended in Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia to address intentions of the general public to get COVID-19 vaccination.

How Social Exclusion, Embitterment, and Conspiracy Beliefs Mediate Individual's Intention to Vaccination against COVID-19: Results from a Moderated Serial Mediation Analysis

INTRODUCTION

As Switzerland faced the "second wave" of COVID-19 incidences, a discussion of a potential vaccine against the virus emerged. While some individuals accept vaccines, others challenge or refuse to be vaccinated, a phenomena called vaccine hesitancy. Here, trust plays a vital role in vaccination intention. Embitterment not only goes along with the sense of being treated unjust but also innates a distrust in others. Thus, embitterment may influence individuals' vaccination intention against COVID-19. In the present study, we investigate how feelings of being socially excluded and the perceived negative impact of the pandemic are associated with embitterment and in turn, how embitterment is related to individuals' vaccination intention and the tendency to hold COVID-19-related conspiracy beliefs (CCBs). This is in regard of the perceived communication style by the government.

METHOD

A convenience sample of 281 individuals completed an online survey developed on Qualtrics. In this cross-sectional, nonexperimental designed study, indirect effects of a moderated serial mediation were analyzed using Jamm (Jamovi, Version 0.9; 2019).

RESULTS

Results indicated that embitterment went along with increased feelings of social exclusion (β = 0.45, p < 0.001). Further, individuals high in embitterment generally indicated a higher vaccination intention against COVID-19 (β = 0.15, p < 0.01). However, embittered individuals holding CCBs had a decreased vaccination intention against COVID-19 (β = -0.71, p < 0.001). Thus, whether or not embittered individuals develop CCBs might be a crucial determinant for their vaccination intention. Noteworthy, the relationship between embitterment and the tendency to hold CCBs was reinforced by the notion of an unsatisfactory style of communication by the government.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, results suggest that embitterment not only plays a relevant role in vaccination intention against COVID-19 but also for the susceptibility to engage in conspiracy beliefs.

What drives beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories? The role of psychotic-like experiences and confinement-related factors

Rationale

The COVID-19 pandemic is a worldwide threat to public health and the global economy. The climate of fear and uncertainty associated with the pandemic has fostered the emergence of a wide range of COVID-19 conspiracy theories that have the potential to shape public opinion and hinder the effective dissemination of valid information. Beliefs in conspiracy theories have been associated with maladaptive personality traits such as schizotypy and paranoia, as well as other non-psychotic psychological characteristics (e.g., social isolation, stress).

Methods

An online survey was conducted to examine the associations between beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and psychotic-like experiences in a Portuguese community sample (N = 438), while also addressing the role of sociodemographic variables, psychological outcomes (e.g., stress, affective states), confinement-related factors (e.g., confinement conditions/behaviors), and pandemic-related factors (e.g., health concerns, financial issues).

Results

Findings suggest that psychotic-like experiences are associated with beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories, particularly perceptual abnormalities and persecutory ideation. Moreover, increased health-related concerns and reduced education levels also seem to be liability factors for these conspiracy beliefs.

Conclusion

These results add important insights into how the adherence to illogical and erroneous disease-related arguments can be related to psychotic-like experiences. COVID-19 conspiracy theories are yet another major challenge that governments and policymakers must contemplate when defining strategic directions to manage the current and future pandemics.

Conspiratorial Beliefs and Cognitive Styles: An Integrated Look on Analytic Thinking, Critical Thinking, and Scientific Reasoning in Relation to (Dis)trust in Conspiracy Theories

The tendency to believe in conspiracy theories (implying secret and malevolent plots by scheming groups or individuals), incites growing decennial interest among psychological researchers (exploring the associated personality traits, worldviews and cognitive styles of people). The link between the conspiratorial beliefs and the cognitive styles remains of particular interest to scholars, requiring integrated theoretical considerations. This perspective article will focus on the relationship between the propensity to (dis)trust conspiracy theories and three cognitive styles: analytic thinking, critical thinking, and scientific reasoning. Analytic thinking (inclination toward slow and deliberate processing of information in a conscious effort to mitigate biases and reach objective understanding of facts), is a well-studied concept in the context of conspiratorial beliefs, while the negative mutual relationship seems well-evidenced. On the other hand, the evidence on the link with the critical thinking (readiness to consider, reason, appraise, review, and interpret facts to update existing beliefs) has only started to emerge in the last years. Finally, scientific reasoning (ability to apply principles of scientific inquiry to formulate, test, revise and update knowledge in accordance with new evidence), is the least studied of the three cognitive styles in relation to conspiracy theories. The present article will: (a) revise the (lack of) scientific consensus on the definitional and conceptual aspects (by providing theoretical framework); (b) summarize the state of the art on the subject (by providing overview of empirical evidence); (c) discuss directions for future research (especially in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic). An integrated perspective on the relationship between conspiratorial beliefs and cognitive styles of people, may serve to inspire future behavioral interventions.

To get vaccinated or not? Social psychological factors associated with vaccination intent for COVID-19

Pandemic control not only requires effective COVID-19 vaccines but also that they are accepted by at least 80% of the population. For this reason, understanding the social psychological variables associated with vaccination intent is essential to achieve herd immunity. Drawing on the theory of reasoned action, this study seeks to analyze vaccination intent using the beliefs about vaccine effectiveness, conspiracy theories, and injunctive norms as predictors. A non-probabilistic national online survey was conducted during December 2020. A sample of 1,033 people in Chile answered a questionnaire with the study variables. Using structural equation models, it was found that vaccination intent was explained in 62.1% by beliefs about vaccine effectiveness and injunctive norms, controlling for age, political orientation, socioeconomic status, educational level, and gender. Specifically, beliefs about vaccine effectiveness are based on people's experience with previous immunization processes, which predict vaccination intent. Regarding injunctive norms, they act by influencing and encouraging vaccination by seeking the approval of significant others. Contrary to expected, conspiracy beliefs were not directly associated with the intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine but were highly related to lower beliefs about vaccine effectiveness. This study suggests that to enhance the vaccination intent, socio-psychological and structural variables need to be considered.

"COVID-19 spreads round the planet, and so do paranoid thoughts". A qualitative investigation into personal experiences of psychosis during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect people who have had previous experiences of psychosis - either positively or negatively. A research gap exists in looking at qualitative experiences of the pandemic. In the present study, we address the research gap in those who self-identified as having psychosis via Reddit discussion forum posts, collecting data from a popular online community. Sixty-five posts were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Five overarching themes were identifie; declining mental health, changed psychosis experiences, personal coping experiences, social connectedness and disconnectedness, and COVID-19 as a metaphor. The data show that there are varied experiences associated with the pandemic. People who have experiences of psychosis do not only have vulnerabilities but may also perceive themselves as having strengths that allow them to cope better.

Stakes of Knowing the Truth: A Motivational Perspective on the Popularity of a Controversial Scientific Theory

The aim of this article is to provide a different perspective on people's beliefs regarding controversial scientific information. We emphasize that, although people generally aim at getting a fair representation of reality, accuracy about scientific issues only matters to the extent that individuals perceive it as useful to achieve their own goals. This has important consequences in terms of how anti-science attitudes as well as epistemically questionable beliefs must be interpreted, which has consequences for addressing misinformation. We argue that most people who endorse scientific misinformation are not truly interested in its accuracy, and rather that plausibility at face value often suffices when it is meant to be used for social purposes only. We illustrate this view with the example of hydroxychloroquine, which was considered as potential treatment for Covid-19, and which has been the subject of much media hype and public concern, particularly in France.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the search for structure: Social media and conspiracy theories

The study outlines a model for how the COVID-19 pandemic has uniquely exacerbated the propagation of conspiracy beliefs and subsequent harmful behaviors. The pandemic has led to widespread disruption of cognitive and social structures. As people face these disruptions they turn online seeking alternative cognitive and social structures. Once there, social media radicalizes beliefs, increasing contagion (rapid spread) and stickiness (resistance to change) of conspiracy theories. As conspiracy theories are reinforced in online communities, social norms develop, translating conspiracy beliefs into real-world action. These real-world exchanges are then posted back on social media, where they are further reinforced and amplified, and the cycle continues. In the broader population, this process draws attention to conspiracy theories and those who confidently espouse them. This attention can drive perceptions that conspiracy beliefs are less fringe and more popular, potentially normalizing such beliefs for the mainstream. We conclude by considering interventions and future research to address this seemingly intractable problem.

COVID-19 Scientific Facts vs. Conspiracy Theories: Is Science Failing to Pass Its Message?

Science may be failing to convince a significant number of people about COVID-19 scientific facts and needed public health measures. Individual and social factors are behind believing conspiracy theories. Adults (N = 1001) were asked to rate their beliefs in various conspiracy theories circulating in social media, rate their psychological distress relating to COVID-19, rate their trust in science to solve COVID-19 problems, and rate their willingness to adhere to measures regarding social distancing and quarantine. The findings showed conspiracy theories are widely believed and related to lower age, lower education, living in less densely populated areas, and lower income. Stronger conspiracy theory beliefs predicted science mistrust and unwillingness to adhere to public health measures. Psychological state was a strong predictor of conspiracy beliefs. Recommendations, stemming from the findings, for reducing such beliefs and better serving public health are discussed.