Measles vaccination policy

Defining the vaccination window for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) using age-seroprevalence data for children in Kilifi, Kenya

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of lower respiratory tract disease in early life and a target for vaccine prevention. Data on the age-prevalence of RSV specific antibodies will inform on optimizing vaccine delivery.

Methods

Archived plasma samples were randomly selected within age strata from 960 children less than 145 months of age admitted to Kilifi County Hospital pediatric wards between 2007 and 2010. Samples were tested for antibodies to RSV using crude virus IgG ELISA. Seroprevalence (and 95% confidence intervals) was estimated as the proportion of children with specific antibodies above a defined cut-off level. Nested catalytic models were used to explore different assumptions on antibody dynamics and estimate the rates of decay of RSV specific maternal antibody and acquisition of infection with age, and the average age of infection.

Results

RSV specific antibody prevalence was 100% at age 0-<1month, declining rapidly over the first 6 months of life, followed by an increase in the second half of the first year of life and beyond. Seroprevalence was lowest throughout the age range 5–11 months; all children were seropositive beyond 3 years of age. The best fit model to the data yielded estimates for the rate of infection of 0.78/person/year (95% CI 0.65–0.97) and 1.69/person/year (95% CI 1.27–2.04) for ages 0-<1 year and 1-<12 years, respectively. The rate of loss of maternal antibodies was estimated as 2.54/year (95% CI 2.30–2.90), i.e. mean duration 4.7 months. The mean age at primary infection was estimated at 15 months (95% CI 13–18).

Conclusions

The rate of decay of maternal antibody prevalence and subsequent age-acquisition of infection are rapid, and the average age at primary infection early. The vaccination window is narrow, and suggests optimal targeting of vaccine to infants 5 months and above to achieve high seroconversion.

A 'post-honeymoon' measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing

Using a mathematical model with realistic demography, we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988–1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces, which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent, they must expand their target age range.

Antimeasles antibodies in preterm infants during early infancy in Turkey

AIM

To measure maternally derived measles antibodies in sera of premature infants at birth and seropositivity rates in early infancy in a rural area of central Turkey.

METHODS

65 premature and 24 full-term infants born in Erciyes University Hospital and their mothers were recruited to a longitudinal, prospective study. The infants were divided into three groups by gestational age: group A, <33 weeks; group B, 33-37 weeks; group C, >37 weeks. For specific analyses, the groups were subdivided into groups Al, B1 and C1 (infants of naturally immunised mothers) and A2, B2 and C2 (infants of vaccinated mothers). Blood samples were obtained from mothers and infants after delivery. The infants were re-evaluated at 2, 4 and 6 months of age.

RESULTS

Of 25 mothers, 20.3% were seronegative for measles antibodies. Twenty of the mothers had not been vaccinated. The percentages of seronegative infants at birth were 24.2% (n=8), 12.5% (n=4) and 0% (n=0) in groups A, B and C, respectively. No infants were seronegative at birth in Al, B1 or C1. Mean levels of antimeasles antibodies in all naturally immunised mothers were significantly higher than in vaccinated mothers. Antibody levels in all infants decreased rapidly with increasing age. Gestational age at birth [beta=0.179, t=3.359, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0001-0.0001, p<0.05], birthweight (beta=0.637, t=9.691, 95% CI 0.057-0.086, p<0.05) and maternal naturally immunised status (beta=0.168, t=2.825, 95% CI 0.002-0.014, p<0.05) were significantly associated with antibody levels after birth. In all groups of naturally immunised mothers, the percentages of seronegative infants were significantly lower than in vaccinated mothers at birth and at 2, 4 and 6 months of age.

CONCLUSION

The current recommendation to immunise all infants at 9 months of age might require revision for premature infants, especially those whose mothers have vaccination-induced immunity.

Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance.

The use of a formal sensitivity analysis on epidemic models with immune protection from maternally acquired antibodies

This paper considers the outcome of a formal sensitivity analysis on a series of epidemic model structures developed to study the population level effects of maternal antibodies. The analysis is used to compare the potential influence of maternally acquired immunity on various age and time domain observations of infection and serology, with and without seasonality. The results of the analysis indicate that time series observations are largely insensitive to variations in the average duration of this protection, and that age related empirical data are likely to be most appropriate for estimating these characteristics.

Modelling the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the epidemic of HIV

Thirty years after HIV first appeared it has killed close to 30 million people but transmission continues unchecked. In 2009, an estimated 1.8 million lives were lost and 2.6 million more people were infected with HIV [1]. To cut transmission, many social, behavioural and biomedical interventions have been developed, tested and tried but have had little impact on the epidemic in most countries. One substantial success has been the development of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) that reduces viral load and restores immune function. This raises the possibility of using ART not only to treat people but also to prevent new HIV infections. Here we consider the impact of ART on the transmission of HIV and show how it could help to control the epidemic. Much needs to be known and understood concerning the impact of early treatment with ART on the prognosis for individual patients and on transmission. We review the current literature on factors associated with modelling treatment for prevention and illustrate the potential impact using existing models. We focus on generalized epidemics in sub- Saharan Africa, with an emphasis on South Africa, where transmission is mainly heterosexual and which account for an estimated 17% of all people living with HIV. We also make reference to epidemics among men who have sex with men and injection drug users where appropriate. We discuss ways in which using treatment as prevention can be taken forward knowing that this can only be the beginning of what must become an inclusive dialogue among all of those concerned to stop acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS).

Clinical prognostic value of RNA viral load and CD4 cell counts during untreated HIV-1 infection--a quantitative review

Background

The prognostic value of CD4 counts and RNA viral load for identifying treatment need in HIV-infected individuals depends on (a) variation within and among individuals, and (b) relative risks of clinical progression per unit CD4 or RNA difference.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We reviewed these measurements across (a) 30 studies, and (b) 16 cohorts of untreated seropositive adults. Median within-population interquartile ranges were 74,000 copies/mL for RNA with no significant change during the course of infection; and 330 cells/µL for CD4, with a slight proportional increase over infection. Applying measurement and physiological fluctuations observed on chronically infected patients, we estimate that 45% of population-level variation in RNA, and 25% of variation in CD4, were due to within-patient fluctuations. Comparing a patient with RNA at upper 75^th centile with a patient at median RNA, 5-year relative risks were 1.4 (95% CI 1.2–1.7) for AIDS and 1.5 (1.3–1.9) for death, without change over the course of infection. In contrast, for a patient with CD4 count at the lower 75^th centile, relative risks increased from 1.0 at seroconversion to maxima of 6.3 (4.4–8.9) for AIDS and 5.5 (2.7–10.1) for death by year 6, when the population median had fallen to 300 cells/µL. Below 300 cells/µL, prognostic power did not increase, due to a narrower CD4 range.

Conclusions

Findings support the current WHO recommendation (used with clinical criteria) to start antiretroviral treatment in low-income settings at CD4 thresholds of 200–350 cells/µL, without pre-treatment RNA monitoring – while not precluding earlier treatment based on clinical, socio-demographic or public health criteria.

Assessment of measles immunity among infants in Maputo City, Mozambique

Background

The optimum age for measles vaccination varies from country to country and thus a standardized vaccination schedule is controversial. While the increase in measles vaccination coverage has produced significant changes in the epidemiology of infection, vaccination schedules have not been adjusted. Instead, measures to cut wild-type virus transmission through mass vaccination campaigns have been instituted. This study estimates the presence of measles antibodies among six- and nine-month-old children and assesses the current vaccination seroconversion by using a non invasive method in Maputo City, Mozambique.

Methods

Six- and nine-month old children and their mothers were screened in a cross-sectional study for measles-specific antibodies in oral fluid. All vaccinated children were invited for a follow-up visit 15 days after immunization to assess seroconversion.

Results

82.4% of the children lost maternal antibodies by six months. Most children were antibody-positive post-vaccination at nine months, although 30.5 % of nine month old children had antibodies in oral fluid before vaccination. We suggest that these pre-vaccination antibodies are due to contact with wild-type of measles virus. The observed seroconversion rate after vaccination was 84.2%.

Conclusion

These data indicate a need to re-evaluate the effectiveness of the measles immunization policy in the current epidemiological scenario.

Otosclerosis and measles virus - association or causation?

Otosclerosis is a frequent condition which occurs exclusively in the human temporal bone. This peculiar disease affects mainly Caucasians and Indians and may cause conductive, mixed conductive-sensorineural or occasionally merely sensorineural hearing loss. Morphological investigations of the otosclerotic focus show all three phases of a chronic inflammation with bone resorption, formation of new bone and finally eburnation. Various hypotheses about the cause of inflammation were proposed in the past. Immunological reactivity to collagen, the existence of otosclerosis genes (OTSC 1-5) including mutations of the collagen gene 1A1 and 1A2 or a measles virus (MV) infection were suggested. The existence of the MV proteins and RNA within the otosclerotic tissue has been shown by several authors. However, due to mainly technical problems, no further progress to elucidate the role of the virus could be made. Epidemiological studies revealed a dramatic decrease of measles and related diseases such as the subacute sclerosing panencephalitis since the introduction of MV vaccination programs in USA and Europe. Indeed, some surgeons reported decreasing numbers of stapes surgery and a shift towards elder patients. Our epidemiological survey of all patients hospitalized with otosclerosis in Germany between 1993 and 2004 demonstrates a highly significant decrease in otosclerosis among the population vaccinated against the MV. The strong correlation makes it most plausible that the MV is at least one triggering factor for the development of otosclerosis.

Silencing T cells or T-cell silencing: concepts in virus-induced immunosuppression

The ability to evade or suppress the host's immune response is a property of many viruses, indicating that this provides an advantage for the pathogen to spread efficiently or even to establish a persistent infection. The type and complexity of its genome and cell tropism but also its preferred type of host interaction are important parameters which define the strategy of a given virus to modulate the immune system in an optimal manner. Because they take a central position in any antiviral defence, the activation and function of T cells are the predominant target of many viral immunosuppressive regimens. In this review, two different strategies whereby this could be achieved are summarized. Retroviruses can infect professional antigen-presenting cells and impair their maturation and functional properties. This coincides with differentiation and expansion of silencing T cells referred to as regulatory T cells with suppressive activity, mainly to CD8+ effector T cells. The second concept, outlined for measles virus, is a direct, contact-mediated silencing of T cells which acquire a transient paralytic state.

Improved measles surveillance in Cameroon reveals two major dynamic patterns of incidence

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the province-specific incidence patterns of measles in Cameroon and determine if an increase in measles incidence during the period January 2000-June 2001 is consistent with coincident epidemics in several regions with different inter-epidemic periods.

METHOD

Periodic behavior of the monthly measles incidence time-series from each province of Cameroon was analyzed using time-series analysis and cluster techniques. Cumulative incidence in each province of Cameroon over a five-year period was associated with birth rates, and vaccination coverage.

RESULTS

Distinct patterns of measles incidence were found in two different areas of Cameroon. The three northern-most provinces experience major epidemics every year. Seven southern provinces show evidence of experiencing major epidemics every third year. In January 2000, Cameroon experienced coincident peaks in these two cycles and thus an increase in measles incidence countrywide over the previous year. Higher cumulative province-specific incidence rates were associated with higher birth rates and lower routine vaccination coverage rates.

CONCLUSION

Within one country, two dramatically different dynamic patterns of measles incidence were observed. Long-term surveillance data is crucial to the evaluation of measles immunization campaigns. The availability of a five-year record of measles incidence in Cameroon reveals an interesting dynamic pattern of measles incidence that accounts for the increase in countrywide incidence in 2000-2001.

Modelling the effect of a booster vaccination on disease epidemiology

Despite the effectiveness of vaccines in dramatically decreasing the number of new infectious cases and severity of illnesses, imperfect vaccines may not completely prevent infection. This is because the immunity afforded by these vaccines is not complete and may wane with time, leading to resurgence and epidemic outbreaks notwithstanding high levels of primary vaccination. To prevent an endemic spread of disease, and achieve eradication, several countries have introduced booster vaccination programs. The question of whether this strategy could eventually provide the conditions for global eradication is addressed here by developing a seasonally-forced mathematical model. The analysis of the model provides the threshold condition for disease control in terms of four major parameters: coverage of the primary vaccine; efficacy of the vaccine; waning rate; and the rate of booster administration. The results show that if the vaccine provides only temporary immunity, then the infection typically cannot be eradicated by a single vaccination episode. Furthermore, having a booster program does not necessarily guarantee the control of a disease, though the level of epidemicity may be reduced. In addition, these findings strongly suggest that the high coverage of primary vaccination remains crucial to the success of a booster strategy. Simulations using estimated parameters for measles illustrate model predictions.

Estimating the force of measles virus infection from hospitalised cases in Lusaka, Zambia

Estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection) are essential for modelling the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and can be a useful tool in evaluating mass vaccination strategies. Few estimates exist of the force of infection of measles virus in sub-Saharan Africa. A mathematical model was applied to age-specific recorded hospital admissions between September 1996 and September 1999 to estimate the force of measles virus infection in Lusaka, Zambia. The average force of infection was estimated to be 20% per year (95% confidence intervals (CI) 16.5, 23.5) which was insensitive to varying assumptions about vaccine coverage. The force of infection varied from year to year (P < 0.001) reflecting the cyclic pattern of measles incidence. The estimated probability of a case being hospitalised decreased with age, consistent with less severe disease in older children. Estimates of the force of infection using routinely available data were consistent with those based upon serological surveys in other sub-Saharan African countries.

Does antigenic overload exist? The role of multiple immunizations in infants

There is no evidence that currently recommended vaccines overload or weaken the infant immune system. Infants have an enormous capacity to respond safely and effectively to multiple vaccines. The schedule for the administration of childhood vaccines is tailored to the unique developmental pattern of the infant immune system. Childhood vaccines provide immediate protection from common childhood illness and establish the foundation for lifelong immunity that develops with subsequent vaccination or infection. Widespread vaccination of infants and children represents a public health triumph of the 20th century. This fact must be reinforced continually by health care workers and parent education to help maintain progress in the 21st century.

Estimation of the time-dependent vaccine efficacy from a measles epidemic

We present a method to estimate the time-dependent vaccine efficacy from the cohort-specific vaccination coverage and from data on the vaccination status of cases and apply it to a measles epidemic in Germany which involved 529 cases, 88 of whom were vaccinated and 370 unvaccinated (for the remaining 71 cases the vaccination status is unknown). Our epidemiological model takes into account that maternal antibodies prevent successful vaccination and that vaccine immunity may be lost over time. Model parameters are estimated from the data using maximum likelihood. Vaccination coverage, as determined in school surveys, ranged from 27.6 per cent for the cohort born in 1974 to 85 per cent for the 1986 cohort, which is far too low to prevent measles transmission. Cohorts for which no school surveys were performed are omitted from analysis. Thus, sufficient data are available for only 282 cases, 69 of whom are vaccinated. According to our estimates, measles vaccinations provided no immunity before 1978 (95 per cent CI: 0 to 47 percent), for the period 1978-1982, the estimated vaccine efficacy was 80 percent (95 percent CI: 67 to 89 percent), and for 1982-1990 it was 97 percent (95 percent CI: 93 to 99 percent). After 1990, the estimated value dropped to 89 per cent, but its confidence interval widely overlaps with that of the previous period (95 percent CI: 74 to 97 percent). Loss of immunity was estimated to be zero (95 percent CI: 0 to 0.003/year). Several sensitivity analyses were performed with respect to the model assumptions. A modified model which assumed constant efficacy at all vaccination times yielded a high estimate of 96 per cent (95 percent CI: 92 to 98 percent) for primary vaccine efficacy but also a high loss rate of immunity of 0.007/year (95 percent CI: 0.001 to 0.012) to explain the high fraction of vaccinated cases among older individuals. The likelihood score value is however significantly inferior compared to the score value of the model with time-dependent vaccine efficacy.

Neonatal and early life vaccinology

Preclinical and human vaccine studies indicate that, although neonatal immunisation does not generally lead to rapid and strong antibody responses, it may result in an efficient immunological priming, which can serve as an excellent basis for future responses. The apparent impairment of CD4 and CD8 T-cell function in early life seems to result from suboptimal antigen-presenting cells-T cell interactions, which can be overcome by use of specific adjuvants or delivery systems. Although persistence of maternal antibodies may limit infant antibody responses, induction of T-cell responses largely remain unaffected by these passively transferred antibodies. Thus, neonatal priming and early boosting with vaccine formulations optimised for sufficient early life immunogenicity and maximal safety profiles, could allow better control of the huge infectious disease burden in early life.

Maternal rubella-specific antibody prevalence in Ethiopian infants

In countries with a high transmission rate of rubella the optimal age for universal rubella vaccination of infants is critically dependent upon the rate of loss of maternal antibodies. Few studies have investigated the decay characteristics of such antibodies. Mother:infant pairs were recruited at the Ethio-Swedish Children's Hospital, Addis Ababa, in 1994/95. Rubella antibody levels, determined by radial haemolysis, were available for analysis from 1542 infants aged 0-12 months, with 942 repeat measures, and from 846 mothers. Decay in seropositivity was well described by a delayed exponential function. The proportion seropositive at age 6, 9, or 12 months was 6-13%, 1-4%, or 0-1%, respectively, dependent upon assay cutoff level. Only infant age and mother's antibody level were important predictors of seropositivity. Results suggest that the success of vaccination at age 9 months or above would be little affected by residual maternal antibodies.

Measles immunity and vaccination policy in Catalonia

The prevalence of antibodies against measles in a representative sample of the school population in Catalonia was established and the results compared with previous studies. The study was carried out in 1996 using blood samples obtained from schoolchildren aged 6-7 years, 10-11 years, 13 14 years and 15-16 years. 1231 schoolchildren were studied. The global prevalence of antibodies was 96.3%, and a considerable increase was observed with respect to the prevalence in 1986 (89.4%). The level of antibodies was 94% at 6-7 years and 10-11 years, 99.7% at 13-14 years and 98.3% at 15 16 years. These data would suggest the advancement of the administration of the second dose of measles-mumps rubella vaccine to 4 6 years instead of at 11 years.

A comparison of alternate immunization regimes for measles in vaccinated populations

Infants today lose maternal measles antibody sooner than in the past. This is related to demographic changes in maternal immunization. Data for rates of decay of maternal antibody and seroconversion after measles vaccination for infants born to naturally immune (Group 1) or vaccinated (Group 2) mothers have been used to evaluate two vaccination schedules: Regime 1, measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) at 1 year of age and Regime 2, monovalent measles at 6 months followed by MMR at 15 months of age. Regime 2 costs less because MMR can be administered at 15 months with the last pentavalent booster. Months of protection/1000 children aged 0-15 months (child-months of protection) were estimated for infant populations ranging from 0 to 100% Group 1 for Regimes 1 and 2. Regime 1 provides more child-months of protection only for 100% Group 1 populations. For the study population Regime 2 provided at least 17% more child-months of protection than Regime 1. Regime 2 provides increased medical and financial benefits in proportion to the number of Group 2 infants in the population and thus is ever more advantageous for today's increasingly vaccinated populations.

Measles vaccine effectiveness in standard and early immunization strategies, Niger, 1995

BACKGROUND

An Expanded Programme on Immunization was started in late 1987 in Niger, including vaccination against measles with one dose of standard titer Schwarz vaccine given to infants after 9 months of age. During epidemics an early two-dose strategy was implemented (one dose between 6 and 8 months and one dose after 9 months). From January 1, 1995, until May 7, 1995, 13 892 measles cases were reported in Niamey, Niger.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a crowded area of Niamey at the end of the outbreak to assess the effectiveness of measles vaccine in standard (after 9 months) and early (before 9 months) immunization strategies under field conditions.

RESULTS

Highest measles incidence rates were observed among children <1 year of age. Vaccine effectiveness estimates increased with age at vaccination from 78% with a single dose administered at 6 months of age to 95% at 9 months. Vaccine effectiveness with the early two dose strategy was 93%.

CONCLUSIONS

Immunization with a single dose of standard titer Schwarz vaccine before 9 months of age provided higher clinical protection than expected from seropositivity studies. The early two dose strategy is justified in contexts where measles incidence is high before 9 months of age. Our results raise the issue of lowering the recommended age for measles vaccination in developing countries.

[Measles, mumps and rubella vaccination status of school beginners in Munich]

A cross-sectional study was performed on all of 10029 school-beginners in Munich in 1994 to investigate the vaccination status of measles, mumps and rubella immunisation. The objective of the study was to determine socio-demographic and psychological factors affecting the MMR vaccination rate. Data were received from 81.8% of all 10029 school-beginners. The vaccination rate was 86.1% for measles, 84.5% for mumps and 72.9% for rubella (missing values not included). Low overall vaccination rate was found in not first-born children, children of parents with non-german nationality, in children of parents with a low socio-economic status, in children accompanied by a working parent, and in children accompanied by a smoking parent. Children without any denomination also showed a lower vaccination rate. Girls had a higher vaccination rate for rubella than boys. A higher overall vaccination rate for MMR was associated with parents considering these infections to have a high impact for people's health. Vice versa children of parents considering adverse effects of vaccination against MMR as an important impact on health had significant lower vaccination rate. The results of a multiple logistic regression model showed two factors significantly affecting the MMR vaccination rate: Physician's recommendation and individual attitude towards medicine seem to have the most important influence on decision making for or against vaccination. In conclusion MMR vaccination strategies have to be improved. New ways such as, no vaccination--no school's should be considered for Germany.