Plague metapopulation dynamics in a natural reservoir: the burrow system as the unit of study

Living with plague: Lessons from the Soviet Union's antiplague system

Zoonoses, such as plague, are primarily animal diseases that spill over into human populations. While the goal of eradicating such diseases is enticing, historical experience validates abandoning eradication in favor of ecologically based control strategies (which reduce morbidity and mortality to a locally accepted risk level). During the 20th century, one of the most extensive plague-eradication efforts in recorded history was undertaken to enable large-scale changes in land use in the former Soviet Union (including vast areas of central Asia). Despite expending tremendous resources in its attempt to eradicate plague, the Soviet antiplague response gradually abandoned the goal of eradication in favor of plague control linked with developing basic knowledge of plague ecology. Drawing from this experience, we combine new gray-literature sources, historical and recent research, and fieldwork to outline best practices for the control of spillover from zoonoses while minimally disrupting wildlife ecosystems, and we briefly compare the Soviet case with that of endemic plague in the western United States. We argue for the allocation of sufficient resources to maintain ongoing local surveillance, education, and targeted control measures; to incorporate novel technologies selectively; and to use ecological research to inform developing landscape-based models for transmission interruption. We conclude that living with emergent and reemergent zoonotic diseases-switching to control-opens wider possibilities for interrupting spillover while preserving natural ecosystems, encouraging adaptation to local conditions, and using technological tools judiciously and in a cost-effective way.

Prairie Dogs, Persistent Plague, Flocking Fleas, and Pernicious Positive Feedback

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a deadly flea-borne disease that remains a threat to public health nearly worldwide and is particularly disruptive ecologically where it has been introduced. We review hypotheses regarding maintenance and transmission of Y. pestis, emphasizing recent data from North America supporting maintenance by persistent transmission that results in sustained non-epizootic (but variable) rates of mortality in hosts. This maintenance mechanism may facilitate periodic epizootic eruptions "in place" because the need for repeated reinvasion from disjunct sources is eliminated. Resulting explosive outbreaks that spread rapidly in time and space are likely enhanced by synergistic positive feedback (PFB) cycles involving flea vectors, hosts, and the plague bacterium itself. Although PFB has been implied in plague literature for at least 50 years, we propose this mechanism, particularly with regard to flea responses, as central to epizootic plague rather than a phenomenon worthy of just peripheral mention. We also present new data on increases in flea:host ratios resulting from recreational shooting and poisoning as possible triggers for the transition from enzootic maintenance to PFB cycles and epizootic explosions. Although plague outbreaks have received much historic attention, PFB cycles that result in decimation of host populations lead to speculation that epizootic eruptions might not be part of the adaptive evolutionary strategy of Y. pestis but might instead be a tolerated intermittent cost of its modus operandi. We also speculate that there may be mammal communities where epizootics, as we define them, are rare or absent. Absence of plague epizootics might translate into reduced public health risk but does not necessarily equate to inconsequential ecologic impact.

Detecting plague-host abundance from space: Using a spectral vegetation index to identify occupancy of great gerbil burrows

In Kazakhstan, plague outbreaks occur when its main host, the great gerbil, exceeds an abundance threshold. These live in family groups in burrows, which can be mapped using remote sensing. Occupancy (percentage of burrows occupied) is a good proxy for abundance and hence the possibility of an outbreak. Here we use time series of satellite images to estimate occupancy remotely. In April and September 2013, 872 burrows were identified in the field as either occupied or empty. For satellite images acquired between April and August, 'burrow objects' were identified and matched to the field burrows. The burrow objects were represented by 25 different polygon types, then classified (using a majority vote from 10 Random Forests) as occupied or empty, using Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) calculated for all images. Throughout the season NDVI values were higher for empty than for occupied burrows. Occupancy status of individual burrows that were continuously occupied or empty, was classified with producer's and user's accuracy values of 63 and 64% for the optimum polygon. Occupancy level was predicted very well and differed 2% from the observed occupancy. This establishes firmly the principle that occupancy can be estimated using satellite images with the potential to predict plague outbreaks over extensive areas with much greater ease and accuracy than previously.

Hierarchical social networks shape gut microbial composition in wild Verreaux's sifaka

In wild primates, social behaviour influences exposure to environmentally acquired and directly transmitted microorganisms. Prior studies indicate that gut microbiota reflect pairwise social interactions among chimpanzee and baboon hosts. Here, we demonstrate that higher-order social network structure-beyond just pairwise interactions-drives gut bacterial composition in wild lemurs, which live in smaller and more cohesive groups than previously studied anthropoid species. Using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and social network analysis of grooming contacts, we estimate the relative impacts of hierarchical (i.e. multilevel) social structure, individual demographic traits, diet, scent-marking, and habitat overlap on bacteria acquisition in a wild population of Verreaux's sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi) consisting of seven social groups. We show that social group membership is clearly reflected in the microbiomes of individual sifaka, and that social groups with denser grooming networks have more homogeneous gut microbial compositions. Within social groups, adults, more gregarious individuals, and individuals that scent-mark frequently harbour the greatest microbial diversity. Thus, the community structure of wild lemurs governs symbiotic relationships by constraining transmission between hosts and partitioning environmental exposure to microorganisms. This social cultivation of mutualistic gut flora may be an evolutionary benefit of tight-knit group living.

The Perfect Burrow, but for What? Identifying Local Habitat Conditions Promoting the Presence of the Host and Vector Species in the Kazakh Plague System

INTRODUCTION

The wildlife plague system in the Pre-Balkhash desert of Kazakhstan has been a subject of study for many years. Much progress has been made in generating a method of predicting outbreaks of the disease (infection by the gram negative bacterium Yersinia pestis) but existing methods are not yet accurate enough to inform public health planning. The present study aimed to identify characteristics of individual mammalian host (Rhombomys opimus) burrows related to and potentially predictive of the presence of R.opimus and the dominant flea vectors (Xenopsylla spp.).

METHODS

Over four seasons, burrow characteristics, their current occupancy status, and flea and tick burden of the occupants were recorded in the field. A second data set was generated of long term occupancy trends by recording the occupancy status of specific burrows over multiple occasions. Generalised linear mixed models were constructed to identify potential burrow properties predictive of either occupancy or flea burden.

RESULTS

At the burrow level, it was identified that a burrow being occupied by Rhombomys, and remaining occupied, were both related to the characteristics of the sediment in which the burrow was constructed. The flea burden of Rhombomys in a burrow was found to be related to the tick burden. Further larger scale properties were also identified as being related to both Rhombomys and flea presence, including latitudinal position and the season.

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, in advancing our current predictions of plague in Kazakhstan, we must consider the landscape at this local level to increase our accuracy in predicting the dynamics of gerbil and flea populations. Furthermore this demonstrates that in other zoonotic systems, it may be useful to consider the distribution and location of suitable habitat for both host and vector species at this fine scale to accurately predict future epizootics.

Spatial distribution patterns of plague hosts: point pattern analysis of the burrows of great gerbils in Kazakhstan

AIM

The spatial structure of a population can strongly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases, yet rarely is the underlying structure quantified. A case in point is plague, an infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Plague dynamics within the Central Asian desert plague focus have been extensively modelled in recent years, but always with strong uniformity assumptions about the distribution of its primary reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). Yet, while clustering of this species' burrows due to social or ecological processes could have potentially significant effects on model outcomes, there is currently nothing known about the spatial distribution of inhabited burrows. Here, we address this knowledge gap by describing key aspects of the spatial patterns of great gerbil burrows in Kazakhstan.

LOCATION

Kazakhstan.

METHODS

Burrows were classified as either occupied or empty in 98 squares of four different sizes: 200 m (side length), 250 m, 500 m and 590-1020 m. We used Ripley's K statistic to determine whether and at what scale there was clustering of occupied burrows, and semi-variograms to quantify spatial patterns in occupied burrows at scales of 250 m to 9 km.

RESULTS

Significant spatial clustering of occupied burrows occurred in 25% and 75% of squares of 500 m and 590-1020 m, respectively, but not in smaller squares. In clustered squares, the clustering criterion peaked around 250 m. Semi-variograms showed that burrow density was auto-correlated up to a distance of 7 km and occupied density up to 2.5 km.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that there is statistically significant spatial clustering of occupied burrows and that the uniformity assumptions of previous plague models should be reconsidered to assess its significance for plague transmission. This field evidence will allow for more realistic approaches to disease ecology models for both this system and for other structured host populations.

Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus

Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

Bubonic plague, known to have marked human history by three deadly pandemics, is an infectious disease which mainly circulates in wild rodent populations and is transmitted by fleas. Although this disease can be quickly lethal to its host, it has persisted on long-term in many rodent populations around the world. The reasons for this persistence remain poorly known. Two mechanisms have been invoked, but not yet explicitly and independently tested: first, the spatial structure of rodent populations (subdivision into several subpopulations) and secondly, the presence of, not only plague-susceptible rodents, but also plague-resistant ones. To gain insight into the role of the above two factors in plague persistence, we analysed a mathematical model of plague propagation. We applied our analyses to the case of Madagascar, where plague has persisted on central highlands since the 1920s and is responsible for about 30% of the human cases worldwide. We found that the long-term persistence of plague can be explained by the presence of any of the above two factors. These results allowed us to propose scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in the Malagasy highlands, and help understand the persistence of plague in many wild foci.

Local persistence and extinction of plague in a metapopulation of great gerbil burrows, Kazakhstan

Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions remain favourable for plague to persist during times where the conditions in the Prebalkhash region as a whole have become unfavourable for plague persistence. In this paper we use a metapopulation model that describes the dynamics of the great gerbil. With this model we study the minimum size of an individual hotspot and the combined size of multiple hotspots in the Prebalkhash region that would be required for Y. pestis to persist through an inter-epizootic period. We show that the combined area of hotspots required for plague persistence is so large that it would be unlikely to have been missed by existing plague surveillance. This suggests that persistence of plague in that region cannot solely be explained by the existence of hotspots, and therefore other hypotheses, such as survival in multiple host species, and persistence in fleas or in the soil should be considered as well.

Increased migration in host-pathogen metapopulations can cause host extinction

There are at least two potentially counteracting effects of migration in host-pathogen metapopulations. On the one hand increased migration leads to increased colonization of empty habitats by healthy hosts; on the other hand migrants can carry infectious diseases to susceptible populations. Earlier metapopulation models have found that the beneficial effects of increasing migration (reduced infection) are likely to dominate, and a general recommendation for managers of endangered metapopulations has been to increase connectivity between habitat patches. We extend the model framework to simultaneously allow for (1) Allee effects in host colonization rate, (2) spillover of pathogens from a second host species, and (3) differential colonization success by infected and healthy hosts. We find that the dynamics of a host-pathogen system can be highly sensitive to increased migration rates. Allee effects make host populations vulnerable to spillover of pathogens from other hosts, and metapopulation extinction can emerge from seemingly stable situations of endemic coexistence. Increasing connectivity in endangered metapopulations can be a risky management action unless the details of the biology of the host-pathogen system are known.

Transmission of flea-borne zoonotic agents

Flea-borne zoonoses such as plague (Yersinia pestis) and murine typhus (Rickettsia typhi) caused significant numbers of human cases in the past and remain a public health concern. Other flea-borne human pathogens have emerged recently (e.g., Bartonella henselae, Rickettsia felis), and their mechanisms of transmission and impact on human health are not fully understood. Our review focuses on the ecology and epidemiology of the flea-borne bacterial zoonoses mentioned above with an emphasis on recent advancements in our understanding of how these organisms are transmitted by fleas, maintained in zoonotic cycles, and transmitted to humans. Emphasis is given to plague because of the considerable number of studies generated during the first decade of the twenty-first century that arose, in part, because of renewed interest in potential agents of bioterrorism, including Y. pestis.

Divide and conquer? Persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts

Persistence of an infectious agent in a population is an important issue in epidemiology. It is assumed that spatially fragmenting a population of hosts increases the probability of persistence of an infectious agent and that movement of hosts between the patches is vital for that. The influence of migration on persistence is however often studied in mean-field models, whereas in reality the actual distance travelled can be limited and influence the movement dynamics. We use a stochastic model, where within- and between-patch dynamics are coupled and movement is modelled explicitly, to show that explicit consideration of movement distance makes the relation between persistence of infectious agents and the metapopulation structure of its hosts less straightforward than previously thought. We show that the probability of persistence is largest at an intermediate movement distance of the host and that spatially fragmenting a population of hosts is not necessarily beneficial for persistence.

The Yersinia pestis chromosome encodes active addiction toxins

Toxin-antitoxin (TA) loci consist of two genes in an operon, encoding a stable toxin and an unstable antitoxin. The expression of toxin leads to cell growth arrest and sometimes bacterial death, while the antitoxin prevents the cytotoxic activity of the toxin. In this study, we show that the chromosome of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, carries 10 putative TA modules and two solitary antitoxins that belong to five different TA families (HigBA, HicAB, RelEB, Phd/Doc, and MqsRA). Two of these toxin genes (higB2 and hicA1) could not be cloned in Escherichia coli unless they were coexpressed with their cognate antitoxin gene, indicating that they are highly toxic for this species. One of these toxin genes (higB2) could, however, be cloned directly and expressed in Y. pestis, where it was highly toxic, while the other one (hicA1) could not, probably because of its extreme toxicity. All eight other toxin genes were successfully cloned into the expression vector pBAD-TOPO. For five of them (higB1, higB3, higB5, hicA2, and tox), no toxic activity was detected in either E. coli or Y. pestis despite their overexpression. The three remaining toxin genes (relE1, higB4, and doc) were toxic for E. coli, and this toxic activity was abolished when the cognate antitoxin was coexpressed, showing that these three TA modules are functional in E. coli. Curiously, only one of these three toxins (RelE1) was active in Y. pestis. Cross-interaction between modules of the same family was observed but occurred only when the antitoxins were almost identical. Therefore, our study demonstrates that of the 10 predicted TA modules encoded by the Y. pestis chromosome, at least 5 are functional in E. coli and/or in Y. pestis. This is the first demonstration of active addiction toxins produced by the plague agent.

Modeling susceptible infective recovered dynamics and plague persistence in California rodent-flea communities

Plague persists as an enzootic in several very different rodent-flea communities around the world. In California, a diversity of rodent-flea communities maintains the disease, and a single-host reservoir seems unlikely. Logistic regression of plague presence on climate and topographic variables predicts plague in many localities where it is absent. Thus, a dynamic community-based analysis was needed. Deterministic Susceptible Infective Recovered (SIR) models were adapted for plague and analyzed with an eye for insights concerning disease persistence. An R simulation program, Plaguesirs, was developed incorporating multihost and multivector SIR dynamics, demographic and environmental stochasticity, density dependence, and seasonal variation in birth and death. Flea-rodent utilization matrices allowed us to get transmission rates as well as flea carrying capacities. Rodent densities allowed us to estimate host carrying capacities, while maximum birth rates were mainly approximated through an examination of litter phenology and demography. We ran a set of simulations to assess the role of community structure in maintaining plague in a simulated version of Chuchupate campground in Ventura County. Although the actual campground comprises 10 rodent and 19 flea species, we focused on a subset suspected to act as a reservoir community. This included the vole Microtus californicus, the deer mouse Peromyscus maniculatus, the Ceratophyllid fleas Aetheca wagneri and Malareus telchinum, and the Leptopsyllid flea Peromyscopsylla hesperomys. The dynamics of 21 subsets of this community were simulated for 20 years. Single-rodent communities showed much lower disease persistence than two-rodent communities. However, so long as Malareus was present, endemicity was enhanced; removal of the other two fleas slightly increased disease persistence. Two critical features improved disease persistence: (1) host breeding season heterogeneity and (2) host population augmentation (due to two similar host species instead of one). Voles are winter-spring breeders compared to the spring-summer deer mice. While host synchronicity may enhance epidemics, host asynchronicity favors endemics.

Metapopulation structure for perpetuation of Francisella tularensis tularensis

Background

Outbreaks of Type A tularemia due to Francisella tularensis tularensis are typically sporadic and unstable, greatly hindering identification of the determinants of perpetuation and human risk. Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts has experienced an outbreak of Type A tularemia which has persisted for 9 years. This unique situation has allowed us to conduct long-term eco-epidemiologic studies there. Our hypothesis is that the agent of Type A tularemia is perpetuated as a metapopulation, with many small isolated natural foci of transmission. During times of increased transmission, the foci would merge and a larger scale epizootic would occur, with greater likelihood that humans become exposed.

Methods

We sampled questing dog ticks from two natural foci on the island and tested them for tularemia DNA. We determined whether the force of transmission differed between the two foci. In addition, we examined the population structure of F. tularensis from ticks by variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis, which allowed estimates of diversity, linkage disequilibrium, and eBURST analysis.

Results

The prevalence of tularemia DNA in ticks from our two field sites was markedly different: one site was stable over the course of the study yielding as many as 5.6% positive ticks. In contrast, infected ticks from the comparison site markedly increased in prevalence, from 0.4% in 2003 to 3.9% in 2006. Using 4 VNTR loci, we documented 75 different haplotypes (diversity = 0.91). eBURST analysis indicates that the stable site was essentially clonal, but the comparison site contained multiple unrelated lineages. The general bacterial population is evolving clonally (multilocus disequilibrium) and the bacteria in the two sites are reproductively isolated.

Conclusion

Even within an isolated island, tularemia natural foci that are no more than 15 km apart are uniquely segregated. One of our sites has stable transmission and the other is emergent. The population structure at the stable site is that of a clonal complex of circulating bacteria, whereas the emerging focus is likely to be derived from multiple founders. We conclude that the agent of tularemia may perpetuate in small stable natural foci and that new foci emerge as a result of spillover from such stable sites.

Adaptive strategies of Yersinia pestis to persist during inter-epizootic and epizootic periods

Plague is a flea-borne zoonotic bacterial disease caused by Yersinia pestis. It has caused three historical pandemics, including the Black Death which killed nearly a third of Europe's population in the 14th century. In modern times, plague epizootics can extirpate entire susceptible wildlife populations and then disappear for long time periods. Understanding how Y. pestis is maintained during inter-epizootic periods and the factors responsible for transitioning to epizootics is important for preventing and controlling pathogen transmission and ultimately reducing the burden of human disease. In this review, we focus primarily on plague in North American foci and discuss the potential adaptive strategies Y. pestis might employ to ensure not only its survival during inter-epizootic periods but also the rapid epizootic spread and invasion of new territories that are so characteristic of plague and have resulted in major pandemics and establishment of plague foci throughout much of the world.

Unpacking β: Within-Host Dynamics and the Evolutionary Ecology of Pathogen Transmission

Rather than being fixed, pathogen transmission varies and is thus an object of natural selection. I examine how opportunities for selection on pathogen transmission depend on (a) pathogen fitness, (b) genetic variability, and (c) forces acting at within- and between-host levels. The transmission rate, β, influences processes such as epidemic spread, postepidemic fade-outs, and low-level persistence. Complexity of infection processes within hosts leads to different transmission rates among hosts and between types of pathogens (viruses, bacteria, eukaryotic Protozoa). Generality emerges, however, by “unpacking” β into within- and between-host opportunities for selection. This is illustrated by evolutionary biology of the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which causes plague in mammals, remains highly virulent and is transmitted by multiple routes, including fleas and direct contacts with infected hosts. The strength of within-host selection is manifested through infectivity, replication, pathogenicity, and dissemination from hosts. At the between-host level, responses to selection are less predictable because of environmental variation, whereas vector-borne transmission (usually by arthropods) provides additional opportunities for selection and trade-offs between vectors and hosts. In subdivided host populations, selection favors transmission before local pathogen extinction occurs, but key components (e.g. infectious periods of hosts) are determined by within-host dynamics. Pathogen transmission is often viewed in the context of transmission-virulence trade-offs, but within-host dynamics may cause host damage unrelated to transmission, and thus transmission-virulence trade-offs are not universal.

The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon

Percolation theory is most commonly associated with the slow flow of liquid through a porous medium, with applications to the physical sciences. Epidemiological applications have been anticipated for disease systems where the host is a plant or volume of soil, and hence is fixed in space. However, no natural examples have been reported. The central question of interest in percolation theory, the possibility of an infinite connected cluster, corresponds in infectious disease to a positive probability of an epidemic. Archived records of plague (infection with Yersinia pestis) in populations of great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Kazakhstan have been used to show that epizootics only occur when more than about 0.33 of the burrow systems built by the host are occupied by family groups. The underlying mechanism for this abundance threshold is unknown. Here we present evidence that it is a percolation threshold, which arises from the difference in scale between the movements that transport infectious fleas between family groups and the vast size of contiguous landscapes colonized by gerbils. Conventional theory predicts that abundance thresholds for the spread of infectious disease arise when transmission between hosts is density dependent such that the basic reproduction number (R(0)) increases with abundance, attaining 1 at the threshold. Percolation thresholds, however, are separate, spatially explicit thresholds that indicate long-range connectivity in a system and do not coincide with R(0) = 1. Abundance thresholds are the theoretical basis for attempts to manage infectious disease by reducing the abundance of susceptibles, including vaccination and the culling of wildlife. This first natural example of a percolation threshold in a disease system invites a re-appraisal of other invasion thresholds, such as those for epidemic viral infections in African lions (Panthera leo), and of other disease systems such as bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in badgers (Meles meles).

Climatically driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks

In central Asia, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the main host for the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the cause of bubonic plague. In order to prevent plague outbreaks, monitoring of the great gerbil has been carried out in Kazakhstan since the late 1940s. We use the resulting data to demonstrate that climate forcing synchronizes the dynamics of gerbils over large geographical areas. As it is known that gerbil densities need to exceed a threshold level for plague to persist, synchrony in gerbil abundance across large geographical areas is likely to be a condition for plague outbreaks at similar large scales. Here, we substantiate this proposition through autoregressive modelling involving the normalized differentiated vegetation index as a forcing covariate. Based upon predicted climate changes, our study suggests that during the next century, plague epizootics may become more frequent in central Asia.

Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague

Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.