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Wang H, Huang S, Wang Z, Zhen H, Li Z, Fan W, Lu M, Han X, Du L, Zhao M, Yan Y, Zhang X, Zhen Q, Shui T. Association between meteorological factors and varicella incidence: a multicity study in Yunnan Province, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:117817-117828. [PMID: 37874521 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-30457-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
This multicenter study aimed to investigate the relationship between varicella incidence and meteorological factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, diurnal temperature difference, wind speed, and rainfall, as previous studies have produced varying results. Our study also sought to identify potential sources of heterogeneity. Data on reported daily varicella numbers and meteorological factors were collected for 14 cities in Yunnan Province from 2017 to 2021. A distribution-lagged nonlinear model was constructed to explore the relationship between meteorological conditions and varicella incidence in each included city. We then used multiple meta-regression to explore sources of heterogeneity using demographic economics indicators, air pollutants, and geographic location as potential modifiers. The cumulative hazard effect plot showed an inverted S-shape for the relationship between temperature and varicella, with the smallest RR (relative risk) (0.533, 95% CI: 0.401-0.708) at temperatures up to 27.2 °C. The maximum RR (1.171, 95% CI: 1.001-1.371) was obtained when the relative humidity was equal to 98.5%. The RR (1.164, 95% CI: 1.002-1.352) was greatest at a diurnal temperature range of 2 °C (1.164, 95% CI: 1.002-1.352) and least (0.913, 95% CI: 0.834-0.999) at a diurnal temperature range of 16.1 °C. The maximum RR (1.214, 95% CI: 1.089-1.354) was obtained at 0 h of sunshine, and the minimum RR (0.808, 95% CI: 0.675-0.968) was obtained at 12.4 h of sunshine. The RR (0.792, 95% CI: 0.633-0.992) was minimum at a wind velocity of 4.8 m/s. Residual heterogeneity ranged from 1 to 42.7%, with PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm), GDP (gross domestic product), and population density explaining some of this heterogeneity. The temperature has a dual effect on varicella incidence. Varicella cases are negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range, sunshine duration, and wind speed, and positively correlated with relative humidity. GDP and PM10 may have a significant role in altering the association between temperature and varicella, while PM10 and population density may alter the association between wind velocity and varicella.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory for Zoonoses Research of the Ministry of Education, Changchun, China
| | - Shanjun Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Zhaohan Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Hua Zhen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Zhuo Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Wenqi Fan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Menghan Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Xin Han
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Lanping Du
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Meifang Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Yuke Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
| | - Xinyao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Care Management, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Qing Zhen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, China.
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory for Zoonoses Research of the Ministry of Education, Changchun, China.
| | - Tiejun Shui
- Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, Yunnan, China
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Li Y, Li J, Zhu Z, Zeng W, Zhu Q, Rong Z, Hu J, Li X, He G, Zhao J, Yin L, Quan Y, Zhang Q, Li M, Zhang L, Zhou Y, Liu T, Ma W, Zeng S, Chen Q, Sun L, Xiao J. Exposure-response relationship between temperature, relative humidity, and varicella: a multicity study in South China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:7594-7604. [PMID: 36044136 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22711-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2022] [Accepted: 08/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Varicella is a rising public health issue. Several studies have tried to quantify the relationships between meteorological factors and varicella incidence but with inconsistent results. We aim to investigate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on varicella, and to further explore the effect modification of these relationships. In this study, the data of varicella and meteorological factors from 2011 to 2019 in 21 cities of Guangdong Province, China were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were constructed to explore the relationship between meteorological factors (temperature and relative humidity) and varicella in each city, controlling in school terms, holidays, seasonality, long-term trends, and day of week. Multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool the city-specific estimations. And the meta-regression was used to explore the effect modification for the spatial heterogeneity of city-specific meteorological factors and social factors (such as disposable income per capita, vaccination coverage, and so on) on varicella. The results indicated that the relationship between temperature and varicella in 21 cities appeared nonlinear with an inverted S-shaped. The relative risk peaked at 20.8 ℃ (RR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65). The relative humidity-varicella relationship was approximately L-shaped, with a peaking risk at 69.5% relative humidity (RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.50). The spatial heterogeneity of temperature-varicella relationships may be caused by income or varicella vaccination coverage. And varicella vaccination coverage may contribute to the spatial heterogeneity of the relative humidity-varicella relationship. The findings can help us deepen the understanding of the meteorological factors-varicella association and provide evidence for developing prevention strategy for varicella epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yihan Li
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Jialing Li
- Institute of Immunization Program, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Zhihua Zhu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Qi Zhu
- Institute of Immunization Program, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Zuhua Rong
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Jianguo Zhao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Lihua Yin
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Yi Quan
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Qian Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Manman Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Li Zhang
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Yan Zhou
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, Guangdong, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, Guangdong, China
| | - Siqing Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Qing Chen
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China
| | - Limei Sun
- Institute of Immunization Program, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China.
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 511430, Guangdong, China.
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Zheng H, Liu D, Zhao X, Zhao X, Liu Y, Li D, Shi T, Ren X. Influence and prediction of meteorological factors on brucellosis in a northwest region of China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:9962-9973. [PMID: 36064850 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22831-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This paper aims to study the cumulative lag effect of meteorological factors on brucellosis incidence and the prediction performance based on Random Forest model. The monthly number of brucellosis cases and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 in Yongchang of Gansu Province, northwest China, were used to build distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). The number of brucellosis cases of lag 1 month and meteorological data from 2015 to 2018 were used to build RF model to predict the brucellosis incidence in 2019. Meanwhile, SARIMA model was established to compare the prediction performance with RF model according to R2 and RMSE. The results indicated that the population had a high incidence risk at temperature between 5 and 13 °C and lag between 0 and 18 days, sunshine duration between 225 and 260 h and lag between 0 and 1 month, and atmosphere pressure between 789 and 793.5 hPa and lag between 0 and 18 days. The R2 and RMSE of train set and test set in RF model were 0.903, 1.609, 0.824, and 2.657, respectively, and the R2 and RMSE in SARIMA model were 0.530 and 7.008. This study found significant nonlinear and lag associations between meteorological factors and brucellosis incidence. The prediction performance of RF model was more accurate and practical compared with SARIMA model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongmiao Zheng
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China
| | - Dongpeng Liu
- Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu, China
| | - Xin Zhao
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China
| | - Xiangkai Zhao
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China
| | - Yanchen Liu
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China
| | - Donghua Li
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China
| | - Tianshan Shi
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China
| | - Xiaowei Ren
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Gansu, China.
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Zhang T, Qin W, Nie T, Zhang D, Wu X. Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of varicella in Lu'an, Eastern China, 2015-2020. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:10052-10062. [PMID: 36066801 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22878-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2022] [Accepted: 08/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Varicella (chickenpox) is a serious public health problem in China, with the most reported cases among childhood vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, and its reported incidence has increased over 20-fold since 2005. Few previous studies have explored the association of multiple meteorological factors with varicella and considered the potential confounding effects of air pollutants. It is the first study to investigate and analyze the effects of multiple meteorological factors on varicella incidence, controlling for the confounding effects of various air pollutants. Daily meteorological and air pollution data and varicella cases were collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Lu'an, Eastern China. A combination of the quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the meteorological factor-lag-varicella relationship, and the risk of varicella in extreme meteorological conditions. The maximum single-day lag effects of varicella were 1.288 (95%CI, 1.201-1.381, lag 16 day), 1.475 (95%CI, 1.152-1.889, lag 0 day), 1.307 (95%CI, 1.196-1.427, lag 16 day), 1.271 (95%CI, 0.981-1.647, lag 4 day), and 1.266 (95%CI, 1.162-1.378, lag 21 day), when mean temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), mean air pressure, wind speed, and sunshine hours were -5.8°C, 13.5°C, 1035.5 hPa, 6 m/s, and 0 h, respectively. At the maximum lag period, the overall effects of mean temperature and pressure on varicella showed W-shaped curves, peaked at 17.5°C (RR=2.085, 95%CI: 1.480-2.937) and 1035.5 hPa (RR=5.481, 95%CI: 1.813-16.577), while DTR showed an M-shaped curve and peaked at 4.4°C (RR=6.131, 95%CI: 1.120-33.570). Sunshine hours were positively correlated with varicella cases at the lag of 0-8 days and 0-9 days when sunshine duration exceeded 10 h. Furthermore, the lag effects of extreme meteorological factors on varicella cases were statistically significant, except for the extremely high wind speed. We found that mean temperature, mean air pressure, DTR, and sunshine hours had significant nonlinear effects on varicella incidence, which may be important predictors of varicella early warning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tingting Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Wei Qin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Department of Expanded Program on Immunization, Lu'an Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lu'an, 237000, Anhui, China
| | - Tingyue Nie
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Deyue Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Xuezhong Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, 232000, Anhui, China.
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Miley KM, Downs J, Beeman SP, Unnasch TR. Impact of the Southern Oscillation Index, Temperature, and Precipitation on Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Activity in Florida. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2020; 57:1604-1613. [PMID: 32436566 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjaa084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), an Alphavirus from family Togaviridae, is a highly pathogenic arbovirus affecting the eastern United States, especially Florida. Effects of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and cooling degree days on EEEV horse case data in Florida from 2004 to 2018 were modeled using distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs). The analysis was conducted at statewide and regional scales. DLNMs were used to model potential delayed effects of the covariates on monthly counts of horse cases. Both models confirmed a seasonal trend in EEEV transmission and found that precipitation, cooling degree days, and the SOI were all predictors of monthly numbers of horse cases. EEEV activity in horses was associated with higher amounts of rainfall during the month of transmission at the statewide scale, as well as the prior 3 mo at the regional scale, fewer cooling degree days during the month of transmission and the preceding 3 mo and high SOI values during the month and the previous 2 mo, and SOI values in the prior 2 to 8 mo. Horse cases were lower during El Niño winters but higher during the following summer, while La Niña winters were associated with higher numbers of cases and fewer during the following summer. At the regional scale, extremely low levels of precipitation were associated with a suppression of EEEV cases for 3 mo. Given the periodicity and potential predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, precipitation, and temperature, these results may provide a method for predicting EEEV risk potential in Florida.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristi M Miley
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd, Suite 304, Tampa, FL
| | - Joni Downs
- School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Ave, Tampa, FL
| | - Sean P Beeman
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd, Suite 304, Tampa, FL
| | - Thomas R Unnasch
- Global Health Infectious Disease Research, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd, Suite 304, Tampa, FL
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Lu JY, Zhang ZB, He Q, Ma XW, Yang ZC. Association between climatic factors and varicella incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 728:138777. [PMID: 32330739 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2019] [Revised: 04/15/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To analyze the correlation between climatic factors and the incidence of varicella in Guangzhou, and improve the prevention measures about public health. METHODS Data for daily climatic variables and varicella incidence from 2006 to 2018 in Guangzhou were collected from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau and the National Notifiable Disease Report System. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to evaluate the association between climatic factors and varicella incidence. RESULTS The nonlinear effects of meteorological factors were observed. At lag day21,when the mean temperature was 31.8 °C, the relative risk was the highest as 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07-1.16). When the diurnal temperature range was 24.0 °C at lag day 20, the highest RR was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.05-1.17). For rainfall, the highest RR was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.19) at lag day 21,when the aggregate rainfall was 160 mm. When air pressure was 1028 hPa, the highest RR was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04-1.13) at lag day 21. When wind speed was 0.7 m/s, the highest RR was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11) at lag day 7. When the hours of sunshine were 9.0 h at lag day 21, the RR was highest as 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05). Aggregate rainfall, air pressure, and sunshine hours were positively correlated with the incidence of varicella, which was inconsistent with the wind velocity. Mean temperature showed a reverse U-shape curve relationship with varicella, while the diurnal temperature range showed a binomial distribution curve. The extreme effect of climatic factors on the varicella cases was statistically significant, apart from the extremely low effect of rainfall. CONCLUSION Our preliminary results offered fundamental knowledge which might be benefit to give an insight into epidemic trends of varicella and develop an early warning system. We could use our findings about influential factors to strengthen the intervention and prevention of varicella.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian-Yun Lu
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Zhou-Bin Zhang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Qing He
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Xiao-Wei Ma
- Department of Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China
| | - Zhi-Cong Yang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyun District Qi De Road in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510440, China.
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Goh AEN, Choi EH, Chokephaibulkit K, Choudhury J, Kuter B, Lee PI, Marshall H, Kim JO, Wolfson LJ. Burden of varicella in the Asia-Pacific region: a systematic literature review. Expert Rev Vaccines 2019; 18:475-493. [PMID: 30869552 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2019.1594781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Varicella is a highly contagious infection that can lead to serious complications, particularly in high-risk groups; however, it is vaccine preventable. Disease awareness and understanding of the disease burden can strongly influence vaccine coverage. This review provides insight into the current epidemiology and the importance of varicella from both public health and economic perspectives across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. Areas covered: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify studies on the incidence, seroprevalence, fatality rate and complication rate of varicella. Economic burden studies were also captured. Altogether, 125 studies were identified across the region; these were supplemented by government reports (gray data). Reported vaccine coverage varied from 2.8% to 97%; a key influencing factor was inclusion of the varicella vaccine in national immunization programs. In general, varicella incidence in the unvaccinated population was highest in children ≤5 years old and seroprevalence increased with age. Economic analyses highlighted the cost-saving potential of vaccination programs, especially from a societal perspective. Expert opinion: Varicella-related data varied greatly across the APAC region, highlighting the need to better understand the burden of varicella in this area, and particularly identified the need for better surveillance and reporting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne Eng Neo Goh
- a Department of Paediatrics , KK Women's and Children's Hospital , Singapore
| | - Eun Hwa Choi
- b Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases , Seoul National University Hospital , Seoul , South Korea
| | | | - Jaydeep Choudhury
- d Department of Pediatrics , Institute of Child Health , Kolkata , India
| | - Barbara Kuter
- e Global Vaccine Medical Affairs, Merck Research Laboratories, Merck & Co., Inc , Kenilworth , NJ , USA
| | - Ping-Ing Lee
- f Department of Pediatrics , National Taiwan University Children's Hospital , Taipei City , Taiwan
| | - Helen Marshall
- g Women's and Children's Health Network and Robinson Research Institute and Adelaide Medical School , The University of Adelaide , Adelaide , Australia
| | - Jin Oh Kim
- e Global Vaccine Medical Affairs, Merck Research Laboratories, Merck & Co., Inc , Kenilworth , NJ , USA
| | - Lara J Wolfson
- h Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence , Merck & Co., Inc ., Kenilworth , NJ , USA
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Chen B, Sumi A, Wang L, Zhou W, Kobayashi N. Role of meteorological conditions in reported chickenpox cases in Wuhan and Hong Kong, China. BMC Infect Dis 2017; 17:538. [PMID: 28774264 PMCID: PMC5541728 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2640-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2016] [Accepted: 07/26/2017] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chickenpox is a common contagious disease that remains an important public health issue worldwide. Over 90% of unvaccinated individuals become infected, but infection occurs at different ages in different parts of the world. Many people have been infected by 20 to 30 years of age in China, and adults and pregnant women who become infected often develop severe infection. Furthermore, a mortality rate of 2-3 per 100,000 infected persons has been reported. In this study, we explore the temperature-dependent transition of patterns of reported chickenpox cases in two large subtropical climate cities, Wuhan and Hong Kong, China, to aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effects of climatic changes on epidemiology of chickenpox in China. METHODS We used a time series analysis comprising a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Specifically, the following time series data were analyzed: data of reported chickenpox cases and meteorological data, including the mean temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall in Wuhan and Hong Kong from January 2008 to June 2015. RESULTS The time series data of chickenpox for both Wuhan and Hong Kong have two peaks per year, one in winter and another in spring, indicating a bimodal cycle. To investigate the source of the bimodal cycle of the chickenpox data, we defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q 1, and the 6-month cycle, Q 2, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle and a 6-month cycle, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time-series data. The Q 1 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were positively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of each city. Conversely, the Q 2 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of Wuhan and Hong Kong. CONCLUSION Our results showed that the mean temperature and rainfall have a significant influence on the incidence of chickenpox, and might be important predictors of chickenpox incidence in Wuhan and Hong Kong.
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Affiliation(s)
- Banghua Chen
- Department of Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei China
| | - Ayako Sumi
- Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, S-1, W-17, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8556 Japan
| | - Lei Wang
- Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Wang Zhou
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 24 Jianghanbei Road, Wuhan, Hubei 430000 China
| | - Nobumichi Kobayashi
- Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, S-1, W-17, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8556 Japan
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Li R, Lin H, Liang Y, Zhang T, Luo C, Jiang Z, Xu Q, Xue F, Liu Y, Li X. The short-term association between meteorological factors and mumps in Jining, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2016; 568:1069-1075. [PMID: 27353959 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2016] [Revised: 06/20/2016] [Accepted: 06/20/2016] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND An increasing trend of the incidence of mumps has been observed in a few developing countries in recent years, presenting a major threat to children's health. A few studies have examined the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps with inconsistent findings. METHODS The daily data of meteorological variables and mumps from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from Jining, a temperate inland city of China. A generalized additive model was used to quantify the association between meteorological factors and mumps based on the exposure-response relationship. RESULTS A total of 8520 mumps cases were included in this study. We found a nonlinear relationship of daily mean temperature, sunshine duration and relative humidity with mumps, with an approximately linear association for mean temperature above 4°C (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase was 2.72%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.38%, 3.05% on the current day), for relative humidity above 54%, the ER for 1% increase was -1.86% (95% CI: -2.06%, -1.65%) at lag day 14; and for sunshine duration higher than 5h/d, the ER for per 1h/d increase was12.91% (95% CI: 11.38%, 14.47%) at lag day 1. While we found linear effects for daily wind speed (ER: 2.98%, 95% CI: 2.71%, 3.26% at lag day 13). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that meteorological factors might be important predictors of incidence of mumps, and should be considered in its control and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Runzi Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Hualiang Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yumin Liang
- Jining Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jining, Shandong, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Cheng Luo
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Zheng Jiang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Qinqin Xu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Fuzhong Xue
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yanxun Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Xiujun Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
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Yang Y, Geng X, Liu X, Wang W, Zhang J. Association between the incidence of varicella and meteorological conditions in Jinan, Eastern China, 2012-2014. BMC Infect Dis 2016; 16:179. [PMID: 27102884 PMCID: PMC4840874 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1507-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2015] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Varicella remains an important public health issue in China. In this study we explored the effect of weather conditions on the incidence of varicella in the temperate city of Jinan, Eastern China during 2012-2014 to inform public health prevention and control measures. METHODS Data on reported cases of varicella were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System. Meteorological data for the same time period were obtained from the Jinan Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationships between meteorological variables and the incidence of varicella. Given collinearity between average temperature and atmospheric pressure, separate models were constructed: one including average temperature without atmospheric pressure, the other including atmospheric pressure but without average temperature. Both models included relative humidity, wind velocity, rainfall, sunshine, and year as independent variables. RESULTS Annual incidence rates of varicella were 44.47, 53.69, and 46.81 per 100,000 for 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. Each increase of 100 Pa (hPa) in atmospheric pressure was estimated to be associated with an increase in weekly incidence of 3.35 % (95 % CI = 2.94-3.67 %), while a 1 °C rise in temperature was associated with a decrease of 3.44 % (95 % CI = -3.73-3.15 %) in the weekly incidence of varicella. Similarly, a 1 % rise in relative humidity corresponded to a decrease of 0.50 % or 1.00 %, a 1 h rise in sunshine corresponded to an increase of 1.10 % or 0.50 %, and a 1 mm rise in rainfall corresponded to an increase of 0.20 % or 0.30 %, in the weekly incidence of varicella cases, depending on the variable considered in the model. CONCLUSION Our findings show that weather factors have a significant influence on the incidence of varicella. Meteorological conditions should be considered as important predictors of varicella incidence in Jinan, Eastern China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunqing Yang
- />Faculty of Public Health, Shandong University, Shandong Province, 250100 P. R. China
| | - Xingyi Geng
- />Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Province, 250021 P. R. China
| | - Xiaoxue Liu
- />Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Province, 250021 P. R. China
| | - Weiru Wang
- />Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Province, 250021 P. R. China
| | - Ji Zhang
- />Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Province, 250021 P. R. China
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Andersen LK, Davis MDP. The effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on skin and skin-related diseases: a message from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Task Force. Int J Dermatol 2015; 54:1343-51. [PMID: 26471012 DOI: 10.1111/ijd.12941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2014] [Revised: 10/13/2014] [Accepted: 12/03/2014] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex climate phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean at intervals of 2-7 years. The term refers to fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (El Niño [the warm phase of ENSO] and La Niña [the cool phase of ENSO]) and in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific basin (Southern Oscillation). This weather pattern is attributed with causing climate change in certain parts of the world and is associated with disease outbreaks. The question of how ENSO affects skin and skin-related disease is relatively unanswered. We aimed to review the literature describing the effects of this complex weather pattern on skin. El Niño has been associated with increases in the occurrence of actinic keratosis, tinea, pityriasis versicolor, miliaria, folliculitis, rosacea, dermatitis by Paederus irritans and Paederus sabaeus, and certain vector-borne and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, leishmaniasis, Chagas' disease, Barmah Forest virus, and leptospirosis, and with decreases in the occurrence of dermatitis, scabies, psoriasis, and papular urticaria. La Niña has been associated with increases in the occurrence of varicella, hand, foot, and mouth disease, and Ross River virus (in certain areas), and decreases in viral warts and leishmaniasis. Reports on the effects of ENSO on skin and skin-related disease are limited, and more studies could be helpful in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise K Andersen
- Department of Dermato-Venereology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Mark D P Davis
- Division of Clinical Dermatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
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The effects of ambient temperature on outpatient visits for varicella and herpes zoster in Shanghai, China: A time-series study. J Am Acad Dermatol 2015; 73:660-5. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jaad.2015.07.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2015] [Revised: 07/03/2015] [Accepted: 07/11/2015] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Guo B, Naish S, Hu W, Tong S. The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and immunization service delivery system. Expert Rev Vaccines 2014; 14:561-77. [PMID: 25493706 DOI: 10.1586/14760584.2014.990387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Biao Guo
- Queensland University of Technology, School of Public Health and Social Work, D Wing, O Block, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane, 4059, Australia
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