Effects of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in a temperate region of China

A systematic review of environmental covariates and methods for spatial or temporal scrub typhus distribution prediction

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is underdiagnosed and underreported but emerging as a global public health problem. To inform future burden and prediction studies we examined through a systematic review the potential effect of environmental covariates on scrub typhus occurrence and the methods which have been used for its prediction.

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and other databases, with no language and publication time restrictions, for studies that investigated environmental covariates or utilized methods to predict the spatial or temporal human. Data were manually extracted following a set of queries and systematic analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

We included 68 articles published in 1978-2024 with relevant data from 7 countries/regions. Significant environmental risk factors for scrub typhus include temperature (showing positive or inverted-U relationships), precipitation (with positive or inverted-U patterns), humidity (exhibiting complex positive, inverted-U, or W-shaped associations), sunshine duration (with positive, inverted-U associations), elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the proportion of cropland. Socioeconomic and biological factors were rarely explored. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (n = 8) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach (n = 11) were the most popular methods for predicting temporal trends and spatial distribution of scrub typhus, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings summarized the evidence on environmental covariates affecting scrub typhus occurrence and the methodologies used for predictive modelling. We review the existing knowledge gaps and outline recommendations for future studies modelling disease prediction and burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022315209.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control.

METHODS

This study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions.

RESULTS

Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.

Analysis of Differences in Characteristics of High-Risk Endemic Areas for Contracting Japanese Spotted Fever, Tsutsugamushi Disease, and Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome

Background

Tick-borne infections, including tsutsugamushi disease, Japanese spotted fever, and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), are prevalent in East Asia with varying geographic distribution and seasonality. This study aimed to investigate the differences in the characteristics among endemic areas for contracting each infection.

Methods

We conducted an ecologic study in Japan, using data from a nationwide inpatient database and publicly available geospatial data. We identified 4493 patients who were hospitalized for tick-borne infections between July 2010 and March 2021. Mixed-effects modified Poisson regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with a higher risk of contracting each tick-borne disease (Tsutsugamushi, Japanese spotted fever, and SFTS).

Results

Mixed-effects modified Poisson regression analysis revealed that environmental factors, such as temperature, sunlight duration, elevation, precipitation, and vegetation, were associated with the risk of contracting these diseases. Tsutsugamushi disease was positively associated with higher temperatures, farms, and forests, whereas Japanese spotted fever and SFTS were positively associated with higher solar radiation and forests.

Conclusions

Our findings from this ecologic study indicate that different environmental factors play a significant role in the risk of transmission of tick-borne infections. Understanding the differences can aid in identifying high-risk areas and developing public health strategies for infection prevention. Further research is needed to address causal relationships.

Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008-2021

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province.  METHODS: From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26 °C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2 h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2 m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395-10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008-1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022-4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01-1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration.

CONCLUSION

The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies.

The Prevalence of Rodents Orientia tsutsugamushi in China During Two Decades: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Orientia tsutsugamushi is a zoonotic intracellular pathogen that requires parasitism in eukaryotic cells to reproduce. In recent years, tsutsugamushi disease reported in many places nationwide has crossed the Yangtze River, continuously, spreading to the North China. Now this phenomenon has aroused people's attention. Materials and Methods: In this study, meta-analysis was used to analyze the infection of rodents (vectors) in China, to clarify the transmission rule of O. tsutsugamushi. Results: This study included literature from six databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Science Direct, Wanfang, CNKI, and VIP). A total of 55 articles were included in the study from 610 retrieved articles. The total infection rate of O. tsutsugamushi in rodents was 5.5% (1206/20,620, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0553-0.0617). The prevalence of O. tsutsugamushi in rodents before 2013 (7.73%, 95% CI: 4.11-12.37) was higher than after 2013 (2.11%, 95% CI: 0.64-4.41). O. tsutsugamushi spread among a variety of rodents, among which Rattus losea (13.3%, 95% CI: 4.33-26.26), Rattus tanezumi (5.69%, 95% CI: 1.37-12.72), and Apodemus agrarius (5.32%, 95% CI: 2.26-9.58) infection rate was higher. Kawasaki (8.32%, 95% CI: 1.42-20.17), Karp (7.36%, 95% CI: 2.62-14.22), Kato (2.54%, 95% CI: 0.08-8.28), and Gilliam (2.13%, 95% CI: 0.42-5.09) were the main prevalent genotypes in China. The prevalence of O. tsutsugamushi in rodents was seasonal, increasing gradually in summer (2.39%, 95% CI: 0.46-5.77), peaking in autumn (4.59%, 95% CI: 1.15-10.16), and then declining. The positive rate of immunofluorescence assay (25.07%, 95% CI: 8.44-46.88) was the highest among the detection methods, and it was statistically significant (p < 0.05). Based on the subgroup of geographical factors and climatic factors, the probability of O. tsutsugamushi infection in rodents was the highest when the temperature >19℃ (8.20%, 95% CI: 1.22-20.52), the altitude <100 millimeters (7.23%, 95% CI: 3.45-12.26), the precipitation >700 millimeters (12.22%, 95% CI: 6.45-19.50), and the humidity 60-70% (7.80%, 95% CI: 4.17-12.44). Conclusions: Studies have shown that rodents carrying O. tsutsugamushi are common. People should prevent and control rodents in life and monitor rodents carrying O. tsutsugamushi for a long time.

Prediction of risk factors for scrub typhus from 2006 to 2019 based on random forest model in Guangzhou, China

OBJECTIVES

Scrub typhus is an increasingly serious public health problem, which is becoming the most common vector-borne disease in Guangzhou. This study aimed to analyse the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and potential factors and rank the importance of influential factors.

METHODS

We collected monthly scrub typhus cases, meteorological variables, rodent density (RD), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use type in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2019. Correlation analysis and a random forest model were used to identify the risk factors for scrub typhus and predict the importance rank of influencing factors related to scrub typhus incidence.

RESULTS

The epidemiological results of the scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou between 2006 and 2019 showed that the incidence rate was on the rise. The results of correlation analysis revealed that a positive relationship between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (T_mean ), accumulative rainfall (RF), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours (SH), and NDVI, RD, population density, and green land coverage area (all p < 0.001). Additionally, we tested the relationship between the incidence of scrub typhus and the lagging meteorological factors through cross-correlation function, and found that incidence was positively correlated with 1-month lag T_mean , 2-month lag RF, 2-month lag RH, and 6-month lag SH (all p < 0.001). Based on the random forest model, we found that the T_mean was the most important predictor among the influential factors, followed by NDVI.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors, NDVI, RD, and land use type jointly affect the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangzhou. Our results provide a better understanding of the influential factors correlated with scrub typus, which can improve our capacity for biological monitoring and help public health authorities to formulate disease control strategies.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010-2020

This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of the scrub typhus in Anhui Province. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to explore the association between scrub typhus and environmental variables. A total of 16,568 clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases were reported from 104 counties of 16 prefecture-level cities. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.32:1. And the proportion of cases over 65 years old was the highest, accounting for 33.8% of the total cases. Two primary and five secondary high-risk clusters were detected in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of Anhui Province. The number of cases in primary and secondary high-risk clusters accounted for 60.27% and 3.00%, respectively. Scrub typhus incidence in Anhui Province was positively correlated with the population density, normalized difference vegetation index, and several meteorological variables. The mean monthly sunshine duration with 3 lags (SSD_lag3), mean monthly ground surface temperature with 1 lag (GST_lag1), and mean monthly relative humidity with 3 lags (RHU_lag3) had the most significant association with increased cases of scrub typhus. Our findings indicate that public health interventions need to be focused on the elderly farmers in north of the Huai River in Anhui Province.

Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China

BACKGROUND

Despite the increasing number of cases of scrub typhus and its expanding geographical distribution in China, its potential distribution in Fujian Province, which is endemic for the disease, has yet to be investigated.

METHODS

A negative binomial regression model for panel data mainly comprising meteorological, socioeconomic and land cover variables was used to determine the risk factors for the occurrence of scrub typhus. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify the key predictive variables of scrub typhus and their ranges, map the suitability of different environments for the disease, and estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of infection risk.

RESULTS

The final multivariate negative binomial regression model for panel data showed that the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index had the strongest correlation with the number of scrub typhus cases. With each 0.1% rise in shrubland and 1% rise in barren land there was a 75.0% and 37.0% increase in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. In contrast, each unit rise in mean wind speed in the previous 2 months and each 1% increase in water bodies corresponded to a decrease of 40.0% and 4.0% in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. The predictions of the maximum entropy model were robust, and the average area under the curve value was as high as 0.864. The best predictive variables for scrub typhus occurrence were population density, annual mean normalized difference vegetation index, and land cover types. The projected potentially most suitable areas for scrub typhus were widely distributed across the eastern coastal area of Fujian Province, with highly suitable and moderately suitable areas accounting for 16.14% and 9.42%, respectively. Of the total human population of the province, 81.63% reside in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could help deepen our understanding of the risk factors of scrub typhus, and provide information for public health authorities in Fujian Province to develop more effective surveillance and control strategies in identified high risk areas in Fujian Province.

Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study

Scrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to assess the impact of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in China. Weekly data on scrub typhus cases and meteorological factors were collected across 59 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2020. First, we divided these regions into 3 regions and analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus. We then applied the distributed lag nonlinear model, combined with multivariate meta-analysis, to examine the associations between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence at the total and regional levels. Subsequently, we identified the critical meteorological predictors of scrub typhus incidence and extracted climate risk windows. We observed distinct epidemiological characteristics across regions, featuring obvious clustering in the East and Southwest with more even distribution and longer epidemic duration in the South. The mean temperature and relative humidity had profound effects on scrub typhus with initial-elevated-descendent patterns. Weather conditions of weekly mean temperatures of 25-33°C and weekly relative humidity of 60-95% were risk windows for scrub typhus. Additionally, the heavy rainfall was associated with sharp increase in scrub typhus incidence. We identified specific climatic signals to detect the epidemic of scrub typhus, which were easily monitored to generalize. Regional heterogeneity should be considered for targeted monitoring and disease control strategies.

Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China

Scrub typhus is a climate-sensitive and life-threatening vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. Although the climate-epidemic associations of many vector-borne diseases have been studied for decades, the impacts of climate on scrub typhus remain poorly understood, especially in the context of global warming. Here we incorporate Chinese national surveillance data on scrub typhus from 2010 to 2019 into a climate-driven generalized additive mixed model to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of this disease and predict how it may be affected by climate change under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Our results demonstrate that temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity play key roles in driving the seasonal epidemic of scrub typhus in mainland China with a 2-month lag. Our findings show that the change of projected spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus will be heterogeneous and will depend on specific combinations of regional climate conditions in future climate scenarios. Our results contribute to a better understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus, which can help public health authorities refine their prevention and control measures to reduce the risks resulting from climate change.

How meteorological factors impacting on scrub typhus incidences in the main epidemic areas of 10 provinces, China, 2006-2018

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is a serious public health problem in the Asia-Pacific region, threatening the health of more than one billion people. China is one of the countries with the most serious disease burden of scrub typhus. Previous epidemiological evidence indicated that meteorological factors may affect the incidence of scrub typhus, but there was limited evidence for the correlation between local natural environment factors dominated by meteorological factors and scrub typhus. This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between monthly scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors in areas with high scrub typhus prevalence using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). The monthly data on scrub typhus cases in ten provinces from 2006 to 2018 and meteorological parameters were obtained from the Public Health Science Data Center and the National Meteorological Data Sharing Center. The results of the single-variable and multiple-variable models showed a non-linear relationship between incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (Tmean), rainfall (RF), sunshine hours (SH), and relative humidity (RH). Taking the median of meteorological factors as the reference value, the relative risks (RRs) of monthly Tmean at 0°C, RH at 46%, and RF at 800 mm were most significant, with RRs of 2.28 (95% CI: 0.95-5.43), 1.71 (95% CI: 1.39-2.09), and 3.33 (95% CI: 1.89-5.86). In conclusion, relatively high temperature, high humidity, and favorable rainfall were associated with an increased risk of scrub typhus.

Co-effects of global climatic dynamics and local climatic factors on scrub typhus in mainland China based on a nine-year time-frequency analysis

Background

Scrub Typhus (ST) is a rickettsial disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. The number of ST cases has been increasing in China during the past decades, which attracts great concerns of the public health.

Methods

We obtained monthly documented ST cases greater than 54 cases in 434 counties of China during 2012-2020. Spatiotemporal wavelet analysis was conducted to identify the ST clusters with similar pattern of the temporal variation and explore the association between ST variation and El Niño and La Niña events. Wavelet coherency analysis and partial wavelet coherency analysis was employed to further explore the co-effects of global and local climatic factors on ST.

Results

Wavelet cluster analysis detected seven clusters in China, three of which are mainly distributed in Eastern China, while the other four clusters are located in the Southern China. Among the seven clusters, summer and autumn-winter peak of ST are the two main outbreak periods; while stable and fluctuated periodic feature of ST series was found at 12-month and 4-(or 6-) month according to the wavelet power spectra. Similarly, the three-character bands were also found in the associations between ST and El Niño and La Niña events, among which the 12-month period band showed weakest climate-ST association and the other two bands owned stronger association, indicating that the global climate dynamics may have short-term effects on the ST variations. Meanwhile, 12-month period band with strong association was found between the four local climatic factors (precipitation, pressure, relative humidity and temperature) and the ST variations. Further, partial wavelet coherency analysis suggested that global climatic dynamics dominate annual ST variations, while local climatic factors dominate the small periods.

Conclusion

The ST variations are not directly attributable to the change in large-scale climate. The existence of these plausible climatic determinants stimulates the interests for more insights into the epidemiology of ST, which is important for devising prevention and early warning strategies.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus in Fujian province during 2012–2020

Background

Scrub typhus has become a serious public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region including China. There were new natural foci continuously recognized and dramatically increased reported cases in mainland China. However, the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus in Fujian province have yet to be investigated.

Objective

This study proposes to explore demographic characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus cases in Fujian province, and to detect high-risk regions between January 2012 and December 2020 at county/district scale and thereby help in devising public health strategies to improve scrub typhus prevention and control measures.

Method

Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level in Fujian province during 2012–2020 were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Time-series analyses, spatial autocorrelation analyses and space-time scan statistics were applied to identify and visualize the spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus cases in Fujian province. The demographic differences of scrub typhus cases from high-risk and low-risk counties in Fujian province were also compared.

Results

A total of 11,859 scrub typhus cases reported in 87 counties from Fujian province were analyzed and the incidence showed an increasing trend from 2012 (2.31 per 100,000) to 2020 (3.20 per 100,000) with a peak in 2018 (4.59 per 100,000). There existed two seasonal peaks in June-July and September-October every year in Fujian province. A significant positive spatial autocorrelation of scrub typhus incidence in Fujian province was observed with Moran’s I values ranging from 0.258 to 0.471 (P<0.001). Several distinct spatiotemporal clusters mainly concentrated in north and southern parts of Fujian province. Compared to low-risk regions, a greater proportion of cases were female, farmer, and older residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate a clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus cases in Fujian province, and provide the evidence in directing future researches on risk factors and effectively assist local health authorities in the refinement of public health interventions against scrub typhus transmission in the high risk regions.

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi and is popular in the Asia-Pacific area. Nowadays scrub typhus has been recognized as a considerable burden on public health in Fujian province. We explored the epidemiological characteristics, spatiotemporal patterns and diffusion characteristics of scrub typhus, and detected high-risk regions at the county level in Fujian province between January 2012 and December 2020. Our results indicated that the majority of cases were reported in June-July and September-October and that that middle aged and elderly people were more prone to infection every year in Fujian province. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed clustering in geographic distribution of cases and several distinct spatiotemporal clusters were identified in north and southern parts of Fujian province. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were female, farmer, and older residents in high-risk counties.

The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China

Background:

Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks.

Methods

We extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus.

Results

There were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association.

Conclusions

The results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus.

Molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of Orientia tsutsugamushi in eastern Indian population

Scrub typhus is a bacterial zoonotic acute febrile illness (AFI) caused by the obligate intracellular bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is an antigenically diverse strain frequently observed in the tropical region of Southeast Asian countries. The recent investigation was conducted to delineate the genotype identification of Orientia tsutsugamushi predominating in the eastern zone of India such as Odisha to decipher its strain type, and evaluate its diversity as well as evolutionary pattern based on the nucleotide analysis of the immune dominant 56 KDa gene. During this study, we have investigated 100 clinical samples (2014-2018), out of which 28 were positive for scrub typhus followed by its molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis utilizing 56 KDa partial genes. Population genetic parameters showed the presence of 287 polymorphic sites within the analyzed 56 KDa gene. The gene diversity (Hd) and sequence diversity (π) was estimated 0.638 and 0.280, respectively. Selection pressure analysis (θ = dN/dS) having the value 0.222 suggests that the gene lied under purifying selection. The present study suggested a high rate of genetic diversity within the isolates. This research study sheds light on the hereditary and evolutionary relationships of Orientia strains found in the eastern Indian population. Understanding regional genetic variation is critical for vaccine development and sero-diagnostics methods. A significant level of genetic variability was observed during this study. This information has a way to understand more about antigen diversity that leads to develop an effective vaccine candidate for this pathogen.

Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management

Simple Summary

Vector-borne diseases are among the most rapidly spreading infectious diseases and are widespread all around the world. In China, many types of vector-borne diseases have been prevalent in different regions, which is a serious public health problem with significant association with meteorological factors and weather events. Under the background of current severe climate change, the outbreaks and transmission of vector-borne diseases have been proven to be impacted greatly due to rapidly changing weather conditions. This study summarizes research progress on the association between climate conditions and all types of vector-borne diseases in China. A total of seven insect-borne diseases, two rodent-borne diseases, and a snail-borne disease were included, among which dengue fever is the most concerning mosquito-borne disease. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity have the most significant effect on vector-borne disease transmission, while the association between weather conditions and vector-borne diseases shows vast differences in China. We also make suggestions about future research based on a review of current studies.

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases have posed a heavy threat to public health, especially in the context of climate change. Currently, there is no comprehensive review of the impact of meteorological factors on all types of vector-borne diseases in China. Through a systematic review of literature between 2000 and 2021, this study summarizes the relationship between climate factors and vector-borne diseases and potential mechanisms of climate change affecting vector-borne diseases. It further examines the regional differences of climate impact. A total of 131 studies in both Chinese and English on 10 vector-borne diseases were included. The number of publications on mosquito-borne diseases is the largest and is increasing, while the number of studies on rodent-borne diseases has been decreasing in the past two decades. Temperature, precipitation, and humidity are the main parameters contributing to the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Both the association and mechanism show vast differences between northern and southern China resulting from nature and social factors. We recommend that more future research should focus on the effect of meteorological factors on mosquito-borne diseases in the era of climate change. Such information will be crucial in facilitating a multi-sectorial response to climate-sensitive diseases in China.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of scrub typhus in Yunnan Province from 2006 to 2017

Scrub typhus is an acute infectious disease in humans. A temporal, spatial and epidemiologic study was conducted to understand the characteristics of scrub typhus in Yunnan, to assist public health prevention and control measures. Based on the data on all cases reported in Yunnan during 2006–2017, we characterized the epidemiological features. Spatio-temporal patterns and Q-type cluster method were adopted to analyze the incidence of scrub typhus in Yunnan. In total, 27,838 scrub typhus cases were reported in Yunnan during 2006–2017. Of these, 49.53% (13,787) were male and 50.47% (14,051) were female (P > 0.05). Most patients were farmers (71.70%) (P < 0.05) and children aged 0–5 years (13.16%) (P < 0.01), which accounted for 84.86% of the total cases. An almost 20-fold increase in the number of patients was observed in 2017 (6,337 cases) compared to 2006 (307 cases). Baoshan and Lincang had the most cases accounting for 41.94%, while Diqing had the lowest incidence (only 3 cases). Sixteen municipalities infected were classified into three groups numbered in sequence. The incidence of scrub typhus in Yunnan is high and the annual incidence increased noticeably over time. Our results also indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on Baoshan, Lincang and Dehong.

Impact of Meteorological Factors and Southern Oscillation Index on Scrub Typhus Incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018

Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02–1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01–1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant.

Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.

Epidemiology and risk factors of scrub typhus in Taiwan: A nationwide database study from 1996 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus (ST) is one of the most underdiagnosed, potentially fatal febrile diseases in the Asia-Pacific region. We conducted a comprehensive review of the risk factors of ST over 19 years using data from a nationwide database.

METHODS

We used data on ST from the nationwide database of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control from 1996 to 2014 to analyse the incidence rates and relative risks of ST according to different regions. The trends of incidence rates over the study period were also evaluated. The distribution of confirmed ST cases was mapped using geographic information system software. The characteristics of confirmed ST cases and non-ST cases (cases with suspected ST but negative test findings) were compared.

RESULTS

Among the 38,127 reported cases, there were 6,791 (17.8%) confirmed ST cases. The overall incidence rate of ST in Taiwan was 1.49 per 100,000 residents per year. The trend of incidence rates increased over time. The Island region had the highest incidence rate (56.55 per 100,000 residents per year), followed by the Eastern region (15.13 per 100,000 residents per year). More confirmed ST cases were distributed in mountainous areas of Taiwan Main Island and Island region. Compared to non-ST cases, individuals with confirmed ST were younger (median [interquartile range] age: 44 [26-57] years versus 45 [30-60] years, p < .001) and more likely to engage in at-risk occupations (29.4% versus 13.3%, p < .001), including farming and animal husbandry (16.6% versus 9.0%, p < .001) and the armed forces (12.3% versus 3.5%, p < .001); however, they had a lower rate of animal contact (12.8% versus 20.1%, p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

ST is an endemic disease in Taiwan, particularly in the Island region, Eastern region and mountainous areas. Patients engaged in at-risk occupations and presenting with acute febrile diseases should undergo investigations for ST.

Epidemiologic Changes of Scrub Typhus in China, 1952-2016

Scrub typhus, a miteborne rickettsiosis, has emerged in many areas globally. We analyzed the incidence and spatial–temporal distribution of scrub typhus in China during 1952–1989 and 2006–2016 using national disease surveillance data. A total of 133,623 cases and 174 deaths were recorded. The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100,000 population during 1952–1989; incidence increased sharply from 0.09/100,000 population in 2006 to 1.60/100,000 population in 2016. The disease, historically endemic to southern China, has expanded to all the provinces across both rural and urban areas. We identified 3 distinct seasonal patterns nationwide; infections peaked in summer in the southwest, summer-autumn in the southeast, and autumn in the middle-east. Persons >40 years of age and in nonfarming occupations had a higher risk for death. The changing epidemiology of scrub typhus in China warrants an enhanced disease control and prevention program.

The epidemiology, diagnosis and management of scrub typhus disease in China

Thirty-nine years ago, scrub typhus (ST), a disease, was not among the China's notifiable diseases. However, ST has reemerged to become a growing public health issue in the southwest part of China. The major factors contributing to an increased incidence and prevalence of this disease include rapid globalization, urbanization, expansion of humans into previously uninhabited areas, and climate change. The clinical manifestation of ST also consists of high fever, headache, weakness, myalgia, rash, and an eschar. In severe cases, complications (e.g. multi-organ failure, jaundice, acute renal failure, pneumonitis, myocarditis, and even death) can occur. The diagnosis of ST is mainly based on serological identification by indirect immunofluorescence assay and other molecular methods. Furthermore, several groups of antibiotics (e.g. tetracycline, chloramphenicol, macrolides, and rifampicin) are currently effective in treating this disease. This fact suggests the need for robust early diagnostic techniques, increased surveillance, and prompt treatment, and develop future vaccine.

Non-linear effect of different humidity types on scrub typhus occurrence in endemic provinces, Thailand

Background

Reported monthly scrub typhus (ST) cases in Thailand has an increase in the number of cases during 2009–2014. Humidity is a crucial climatic factor for the survival of chiggers, which is the disease vectors. The present study was to determine the role of humidity in ST occurrence in Thailand and its delayed effect.

Methods

We obtained the climate data from the Department of Meteorology, the disease data from Ministry of Public Health. Negative binomial regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (NB-DLNM) was employed to determine the non-linear effects of different types of humidity on the disease. This model controlled overdispersion and confounder, including seasonality, minimum temperature, and cumulative total rainwater.

Results

The occurrence of the disease in the 6-year period showed the number of cases gradually increased summer season (Mid-February – Mid-May) and then reached a plateau during the rainy season (Mid-May – Mid-October) and then steep fall after the cold season (Mid-October – Mid-February). The high level (at 70%) of minimum relative humidity (RHmin) was associated with a 33% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.13–1.57) significant increase in the number of the disease; a high level (at 14 g/m³) of minimum absolute humidity (AHmin) was associated with a 30% (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.48); a high level (at 1.4 g/kg) of minimum specific humidity (SHmin) was associated with a 28% (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04–1.57). The significant effects of these types of humidity occurred within the past month.

Conclusion

Humidity played a significant role in enhancing ST cases in Thailand, particularly at a high level and usually occurred within the past month. NB-DLNM had good controlled for the overdispersion and provided the precise estimated relative risk of non-linear associations. Results from this study contributed the evidence to support the Ministry of Public Health on warning system which might be useful for public health intervention and preparation in Thailand.

The evolution of bacterial pathogens in the Anthropocene

Humankind has become a primary driver of global environmental and climate change. The extent of planetary change is such that it has been proposed to classify the current geological age as the 'Anthropocene'. Anthropogenic environmental degradation presents numerous threats to human health and wellbeing, including an increased risk of infectious disease. This review focuses on how processes such as pollution, climate change and human-mediated dispersal could affect the evolution of bacterial pathogens. Effects of environmental change on the 'big five' of evolution: mutation rate, recombination (horizontal gene transfer), migration, selection and drift are discussed. Microplastic pollution is used as a case study to highlight the combined effects of some of these processes on the evolutionary diversification of human pathogens. Although the evidence is still incomplete, a picture is emerging that environmental pathogens could evolve at increased rates in the Anthropocene, with potential consequences for human infection.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Risk Factors for Scrub Typhus From 2007 to 2017 in Southern China

BACKGROUND

Substantial outbreaks of scrub typhus, coupled with the discovery of this vector-borne disease in new areas, suggest that the disease remains remarkably neglected. The objectives of this study were to map the contemporary and potential transmission risk zones of the disease and to provide novel insights into the health burden imposed by scrub typhus in southern China.

METHODS

Based on the assembled data sets of annual scrub typhus cases and maps of environmental and socioeconomic correlates, a boosted regression tree modeling procedure was used to identify the environmental niche of scrub typhus and to predict the potential infection zones of the disease. Additionally, we estimated the population living in the potential scrub typhus infection areas in southern China.

RESULTS

Spatiotemporal patterns of the annual scrub typhus cases in southern China between 2007 and 2017 reveal a tremendous, wide spread of scrub typhus. Temperature, relative humidity, elevation, and the normalized difference vegetation index are the main factors that influence the spread of scrub typhus. In southern China, the predicted highest transmission risk areas of scrub typhus are mainly concentrated in several regions, such as Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian. We estimated that 162 684 million people inhabit the potential infection risk zones in southern China.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide a better understanding of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving scrub typhus spread, and estimate the potential infection risk zones beyond the disease's current, limited geographical extent, which enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and help public health authorities develop disease control strategies.

Scrub typhus ecology: a systematic review of Orientia in vectors and hosts

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is an important and neglected vector-borne zoonotic disease with an expanding known distribution. The ecology of the disease is complex and poorly understood, impairing discussion of public health interventions. To highlight what we know and the themes of our ignorance, we conducted a systematic review of all studies investigating the pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts. A total of 276 articles in 7 languages were included, with 793 study sites across 30 countries. There was no time restriction for article inclusion, with the oldest published in 1924. Seventy-six potential vector species and 234 vertebrate host species were tested, accounting for over one million trombiculid mites ('chiggers') and 83,000 vertebrates. The proportion of O. tsutsugamushi positivity was recorded for different categories of laboratory test and host species. Vector and host collection sites were geocoded and mapped. Ecological data associated with these sites were summarised. A further 145 articles encompassing general themes of scrub typhus ecology were reviewed. These topics range from the life-cycle to transmission, habitats, seasonality and human risks. Important gaps in our understanding are highlighted together with possible tools to begin to unravel these. Many of the data reported are highly variable and inconsistent and minimum data reporting standards are proposed. With more recent reports of human Orientia sp. infection in the Middle East and South America and enormous advances in research technology over recent decades, this comprehensive review provides a detailed summary of work investigating this pathogen in vectors and non-human hosts and updates current understanding of the complex ecology of scrub typhus. A better understanding of scrub typhus ecology has important relevance to ongoing research into improving diagnostics, developing vaccines and identifying useful public health interventions to reduce the burden of the disease.

Re-emergence of scrub typhus in Zhejiang Province, southern China: A 45-year population-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is the leading cause of treatable unidentified febrile illnesses in Southeast Asia. This study was conducted to document the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus and its change in Zhejiang, one of traditional epidemic provinces in China.

METHODS

Scrub typhus surveillance data in Zhejiang province during 1957-1989 and 2006-2012 were obtained. Descriptive analysis was conducted to characterize the epidemiology of scrub typhus. The spatial distributions over the periods were explored using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal cluster analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4104 cases and 7 deaths were reported from 1957 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The incidence declined since 1959, remained low from 1967 to 1989, and then exponentially increased after 2006. The seasonality changed from a summer pattern between 1957 and 1989 to a bimodal peak pattern in July to August and October to November from 2006 to 2017. One primary and three secondary high-risk clusters were affirmed in both periods from 1980 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The primary cluster expanded southwestward and the time span of the secondary clusters extended in the later period compared to the clusters in the previous time frame.

CONCLUSION

Zhejiang recently underwent a seasonality change, geographic extension, and incidence increase in scrub typhus. More attention should be paid to controlling scrub typhus.

Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of four natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, China in 2009-2017: A descriptive analysis

Background

Natural-focal diseases are serious diseases that endanger human health. They threaten about 100 million people in Shandong Province, and cause illness in thousands of people each year. However, information on the epidemiological characteristics of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province has been limited. The purpose of the study was to describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, 2009–2017.

Methods

We describe the incidence and distribution of four natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province using surveillance data from 2009–2017.

Results

From 2009–2017, 11123 cases of four natural-focal diseases including 257 deaths were reported in Shandong Province, China. The four natural-focal diseases were severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA), typhus, and scrub typhus. The high-risk groups of the four diseases were farmers and the elderly. The incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females. However, this difference was not seen in the other three diseases. The four diseases were mainly clustered in the middle-southern part of Shandong Province and the Shandong Peninsula. The annual incidence of SFTS and scrub typhus increased, typhus was relatively stable, and HGA declined. However, the range of SFTS expanded, while HGA shrunk, and typhus and scrub typhus were unchanged. The epidemic period of SFTS and HGA was from May to October, typhus was from October to November, and scrub typhus was from September to November. The fatality rates of SFTS, typhus, scrub typhus, and HGA were 9.19%, 0%, 0.01%, and 2.24%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our study described and analyzed the prevalence of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province, and confirmed that age was closely related to the SFTS fatality rate. This study may help to improve the understanding of the prevalence of natural-focal diseases in Shandong Province in recent years and to better develop accurate prevention and control strategies for natural-focal diseases.

Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China

BACKGROUND

This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.

SOURCES OF DATA

Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.

GROWING POINTS

Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.

Chigger Mite (Acari: Trombiculidae) Survey of Rodents in Shandong Province, Northern China

Chigger mites are parasites of rodents and other vertebrates, invertebrates, and other arthropods, and are the only vectors of scrub typhus, in addition to other zoonoses. Therefore, investigating their distribution, diversity, and seasonal abundance is important for public health. Rodent surveillance was conducted at 6 districts in Shandong Province, northern China (114–112°E, 34–38°N), from January to December 2011. Overall, 225/286 (78.7%) rodents captured were infested with chigger mites. A total of 451 chigger mites were identified as belonging to 5 most commonly collected species and 3 genera in 1 family. Leptotrombidium scutellare and Leptotrombidium intermedia were the most commonly collected chigger mites. L. scutellare (66.2%, 36.7%, and 49.0%) was the most frequently collected chigger mite from Apodemus agrarius, Rattus norvegicus, and Microtus fortis, respectively, whereas L. intermedia (61.5% and 63.2%) was the most frequently collected chigger mite from Cricetulus triton and Mus musculus, respectively. This study demonstrated a relatively high prevalence of chigger mites that varied seasonally in Shandong Province, China.

Estimating the burden of scrub typhus: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that can be life-threatening. There are no licensed vaccines, or vector control efforts in place. Despite increasing awareness in endemic regions, the public health burden and global distribution of scrub typhus remains poorly known.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed all literature from public health records, fever studies and reports available on the Ovid MEDLINE, Embase Classic + Embase and EconLit databases, to estimate the burden of scrub typhus since the year 2000.

FINDINGS

In prospective fever studies from Asia, scrub typhus is a leading cause of treatable non-malarial febrile illness. Sero-epidemiological data also suggest that Orientia tsutsugamushi infection is common across Asia, with seroprevalence ranging from 9.3%-27.9% (median 22.2% IQR 18.6-25.7). A substantial apparent rise in minimum disease incidence (median 4.6/100,000/10 years, highest in China with 11.2/100,000/10 years) was reported through passive national surveillance systems in South Korea, Japan, China, and Thailand. Case fatality risks from areas of reduced drug-susceptibility are reported at 12.2% and 13.6% for South India and northern Thailand, respectively. Mortality reports vary widely around a median mortality of 6.0% for untreated and 1.4% for treated scrub typhus. Limited evidence suggests high mortality in complicated scrub typhus with CNS involvement (13.6% mortality), multi-organ dysfunction (24.1%) and high pregnancy miscarriage rates with poor neonatal outcomes.

INTERPRETATION

Scrub typhus appears to be a truly neglected tropical disease mainly affecting rural populations, but increasingly also metropolitan areas. Rising minimum incidence rates have been reported over the past 8-10 years from countries with an established surveillance system. A wider distribution of scrub typhus beyond Asia is likely, based on reports from South America and Africa. Unfortunately, the quality and quantity of the available data on scrub typhus epidemiology is currently too limited for any economical, mathematical modeling or mapping approaches.

Scrub typhus: risks, diagnostic issues, and management challenges

Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness in the “tsutsugamushi triangle”, transmitted by chiggers that can be treated effectively if detected early. Laboratory testing, including molecular and serological assays, is needed for confirming the diagnosis, especially in the absence of the pathognomonic eschar. In this review, factors that play a role in disease occurrence and clinical clues for diagnosis, in addition to risk factors contributing to disease severity, including mortality, are discussed in detail. Moreover, issues related to diagnostic assays, treatment, and mixed infections are also enumerated and described.

Diversification of Orientia tsutsugamushi genotypes by intragenic recombination and their potential expansion in endemic areas

Background

Scrub typhus is a mite-borne febrile disease caused by O. tsutsugamushi infection. Recently, emergence of scrub typhus has attracted considerable attention in several endemic countries in Asia and the western Pacific. In addition, the antigenic diversity of the intracellular pathogen has been a serious obstacle for developing effective diagnostics and vaccine.

Methodology/Principal findings

To understand the evolutionary pathway of genotypic diversification of O. tsutsugamushi and the environmental factors associated with the epidemiological features of scrub typhus, we analyzed sequence data, including spatiotemporal information, of the tsa56 gene encoding a major outer membrane protein responsible for antigenic variation. A total of 324 tsa56 sequences covering more than 85% of its open reading frame were analyzed and classified into 17 genotypes based on phylogenetic relationship. Extensive sequence analysis of tsa56 genes using diverse informatics tools revealed multiple intragenic recombination events, as well as a substantially higher mutation rate than other house-keeping genes. This suggests that genetic diversification occurred via frequent point mutations and subsequent genetic recombination. Interestingly, more diverse bacterial genotypes and dominant vector species prevail in Taiwan compared to other endemic regions. Furthermore, the co-presence of identical and sub-identical clones of tsa56 gene in geographically distant areas implies potential spread of O. tsutsugamushi genotypes.

Conclusions/Significance

Fluctuation and diversification of vector species harboring O. tsutsugamushi in local endemic areas may facilitate genetic recombination among diverse genotypes. Therefore, careful monitoring of dominant vector species, as well as the prevalence of O. tsutsugamushi genotypes may be advisable to enable proper anticipation of epidemiological changes of scrub typhus.

Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi infection, is a mite-borne febrile illness endemic in the Asia-Pacific region. Recent emergence and continuous local outbreaks in many of the endemic countries make it a serious public health issue. In addition, the antigenic diversity of the tsa56 gene, encoding a major outer membrane protein, hampers the development of effective diagnostics and vaccine. Here, we extensively analyzed tsa56 sequences and their spatiotemporal information to elucidate the evolutionary pathway of genotypic diversification, as well as the environmental basis associated with the epidemiological changes of scrub typhus. Based on various informatics analyses, we found that genetic diversification of tsa56 might have been attained via frequent point mutations and subsequent genetic recombination among diverse genotypes. Prevalence of numerous bacterial genotypes and dominant vector species in Taiwan also suggest that the subtropical area located at the center of endemicity, may serve as a local mixing ground for genotype diversification. In addition, detection of identical and sub-identical clones of tsa56 genes in geographically distant countries indicates a potential spreading of bacterial genotypes. Continuous monitoring of dominant vector species and the associated O. tsutsugamushi genotypes might be required for developing better diagnostics and an effective vaccine for scrub typhus.

Rapid increase of scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2014

BACKGROUND

In the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China.

METHODS

Based on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the epidemiological features, and identified environmental determinants for the spatial distribution of ST using a panel negative binomial model.

RESULTS

A total of 4821 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangzhou during 2006-2014. The annual incidence increased noticeably and the increase was relatively high and rapid in rural townships and among elderly females. The majority of cases (86.8%) occurred during May-October, and farmers constituted the majority of the cases, accounting for 33.9% in urban and 61.6% in rural areas. The number of housekeeper patients had a rapid increment in both rural and urban areas during the study period. Atmospheric pressure and relative humidity with lags of 1 or 2 months, distributions of broadleaved forest and rural township were identified as determinants for the spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on the elderly farmers in rural areas covered with broadleaf forest in southern China.

Meteorological factors affecting scrub typhus occurrence: a retrospective study of Yamagata Prefecture, Japan, 1984–2014

Climate change, by its influence on the ecology of vectors might affect the occurrence of vector-borne diseases. This study examines the effects of meteorological factors in Japan on the occurrence of scrub typhus, a mite-borne zoonosis caused byOrientia tsutsugamushi. Using negative binomial regression, we analysed the relationships between meteorological factors (including temperature, rainfall, snowfall) and spring–early summer cases of scrub typhus in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan, during 1984–2014. The average temperature in July and August of the previous year, cumulative rainfall in September of the previous year, snowfall throughout the winter, and maximum depth of snow cover in January and February were positively correlated with the number of scrub typhus cases. By contrast, cumulative rainfall in July of the previous year showed a negative relationship to the number of cases. These associations can be explained by the life-cycle ofLeptotrombidium pallidum, a predominant vector of spring–early summer cases of scrub typhus in northern Japan. Our findings show that several meteorological factors are useful to estimate the number of scrub typhus cases before the endemic period. They are applicable to establish an early warning system for scrub typhus in northern Japan.

Scrub Typhus and Its Causative Agent, Orientia tsutsugamushi

The obligate intracellular bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi is responsible for more than one million cases of scrub typhus annually throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Human infection occurs via the bite of the larval form (chigger) of several species of trombiculid mites. While in some patients the result of infection is a mild, febrile illness, others experience severe complications, which may even be fatal. This review discusses the genome and biology of the causative agent, the changing epidemiology of scrub typhus, the challenges of its diagnosis, and current treatment recommendations.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease.

METHOD

Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

Geographical Distribution and Seasonal Indices of Chigger Mites on Small Mammals Collected on the East Coast of the Republic of Korea

The geographical distributions and relative population densities of scrub typhus vector mites collected from small mammals were determined for 5 locations on the east coast of the Republic of Korea. Collection sites included Goseong, Gangneung, and Hoengseong in Gangwon province and Uljin and Yeongdeok in Gyeongbuk province. A total of 275 small mammals including members of Rodentia (rodents) and Soricomorpha (shrews, such as Crocidura lasiura ) belonging to 4 genera and 4 species were captured in the field from 2012 to 2013. Apodemus agrarius was collected most frequently (220, 80%), followed by C. lasiura (25, 9.1%), Mus musculus (15, 5.5%), and Myodes regulus (15, 5.5%). A total of 23,436 larval chigger mites (Family Trombiculidae) belonging to 3 genera and 8 species (Leptotrombidium pallidum, Leptotrombidium scutellare, Leptotrombidium palpale, Leptotrombidium orientale, Leptotrombidium zetum, Neotrombicula tamiyai, Neotrombicula japonica, and Euschoengastica koreaensis) were collected from the small mammals. The predominant chigger species collected during the spring and fall seasons from A. agrarius were L. pallidum (57.6%), L. palpale (14.5%), and L. scutellare (7.9%). Leptotrombidium scutellare was collected only along the southeastern coast at Yeongdeok, Gyeongbuk province. The geographical distribution of scrub typhus vectors and reservoir hosts are important aspects of understanding the epidemiology of the disease as well as the potential impacts of climate change and health risks.

Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.