Biomarkers improve prediction of 30-day unplanned readmission or mortality after paediatric congenital heart surgery

Evaluation of right ventricular diastolic function, systolic function, and circulating galectin-3 concentrations in dogs with pulmonary stenosis

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases with increased right ventricular (RV) afterload induce RV diastolic and systolic dysfunction, and myocardial fibrosis in humans. Studies in dogs with pulmonary stenosis (PS) evaluating RV diastolic function and markers of myocardial fibrosis are lacking.

HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES

Dogs with PS have echocardiographic evidence of RV diastolic and systolic dysfunction and increased serum concentrations of galectin-3 (Gal-3), a surrogate biomarker for myocardial fibrosis.

ANIMALS

Forty client-owned dogs (10 controls, 30 with PS).

METHODS

Prospective study. All dogs had systemic blood pressure measurement, serum biochemical analysis, echocardiography, and measurement of serum Gal-3 concentration performed.

RESULTS

Variables of RV diastolic function were obtained in 39/40 dogs. Trans-tricuspid flow velocity in early diastole to trans-tricuspid flow velocity in late diastole ratios (RV E/A) were lower (P < .001) in dogs with PS (median, 0.94; range, 0.62-2.04) compared to controls (1.78; 1.17-2.35). Trans-tricuspid flow velocity in early diastole to tricuspid annular myocardial velocity in early diastole ratios (RV E/e') were higher (P < .001) in dogs with PS (11.55; 4.69-28) compared to control (6.21; 5.16-7.21). Variables of RV systolic function were lower in dogs with PS (P = <.001). Serum Gal-3 concentration was higher (P = .002) in dogs with PS (285.1 pg/mL; 94.71-406.97) compared to control dogs (162.83 pg/mL; 52.3-232.82).

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE

Dogs with PS have RV diastolic and systolic dysfunction, and increased Gal-3 concentrations. These findings suggest the presence of RV myocardial fibrosis in dogs with PS, which could impact clinical management.

The Role of Galectin-3 in Predicting Congenital Heart Disease Outcome: A Review of the Literature

Galectin-3 (Gal-3) is a novel pro-fibrotic biomarker that can predict both right and left cardiac dysfunction caused by various cardiovascular conditions. Its expression seems to be progressively altered with evolving cardiac remodeling processes, even before the onset of heart failure. Hence, Gal-3 has been found to be an individual predictor of acute and chronic heart failure or to serve as part of an integrated biomarker panel that can foresee adverse cardiac outcomes. In congenital heart disease (CHD), Gal-3 correlates with cardiac mortality and complications in both children and adults and is proposed as a therapeutic target in order to reverse the activation of pro-fibrosis pathways that lead to heart failure. Positive associations between serum Gal-3 levels, post-operatory hospitalization rates, complications and ventricular dysfunction have also been reported within studies conducted on patients with CHD who underwent corrective surgery. Thus, this review tried to address the potential utility of Gal-3 in patients with CHD and particularly in those who undergo corrective surgery. The heterogeneity of the literature data and the lack of validation of the results obtained by the current studies on larger cohorts cannot be neglected, though. Further longitudinal research is required to establish how Gal-3 can relate to long-term outcomes in pediatric CHD.

Applicability of predictive models for 30-day unplanned hospital readmission risk in paediatrics: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To summarise multivariable predictive models for 30-day unplanned hospital readmissions (UHRs) in paediatrics, describe their performance and completeness in reporting, and determine their potential for application in practice.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCE

CINAHL, Embase and PubMed up to 7 October 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

English or German language studies aiming to develop or validate a multivariable predictive model for 30-day paediatric UHRs related to all-cause, surgical conditions or general medical conditions were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Study characteristics, risk factors significant for predicting readmissions and information about performance measures (eg, c-statistic) were extracted. Reporting quality was addressed by the 'Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis' (TRIPOD) adherence form. The study quality was assessed by applying six domains of potential biases. Due to expected heterogeneity among the studies, the data were qualitatively synthesised.

RESULTS

Based on 28 studies, 37 predictive models were identified, which could potentially be used for determining individual 30-day UHR risk in paediatrics. The number of study participants ranged from 190 children to 1.4 million encounters. The two most common significant risk factors were comorbidity and (postoperative) length of stay. 23 models showed a c-statistic above 0.7 and are primarily applicable at discharge. The median TRIPOD adherence of the models was 59% (P₂₅-P₇₅, 55%-69%), ranging from a minimum of 33% to a maximum of 81%. Overall, the quality of many studies was moderate to low in all six domains.

CONCLUSION

Predictive models may be useful in identifying paediatric patients at increased risk of readmission. To support the application of predictive models, more attention should be placed on completeness in reporting, particularly for those items that may be relevant for implementation in practice.

Predicting 30-day readmission after congenital heart surgery across the lifespan

INTRODUCTION

Hospital readmission is an important driver of costs among patients with CHD. We assessed predictors of 30-day rehospitalisation following cardiac surgery in CHD patients across the lifespan.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of 981 patients with CHD who had cardiac surgery between January 2011 and December 2012. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify demographic, clinical, and surgical predictors of 30-day readmission. Receiver operating curves derived from multivariate logistic modelling were utilised to discriminate between patients who were readmitted and not-readmitted at 30 days. Model goodness of fit was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic.

RESULTS

Readmission in the 30 days following congenital heart surgery is common (14.0%). Among 981 patients risk factors associated with increased odds of 30-day readmission after congenital heart surgery through multivariate analysis included a history of previous cardiac surgery (p < 0.001), longer post-operative length of stay (p < 0.001), as well as nutritional (p < 0.001), haematologic (p < 0.02), and endocrine (p = 0.04) co-morbidities. Patients who underwent septal defect repair had reduced odds of readmission (p < 0.001), as did children (p = 0.04) and adult (p = 0.005) patients relative to neonates.

CONCLUSION

Risk factors for readmission include a history of cardiac surgery, longer length of stay, and co-morbid conditions. This information may serve to guide efforts to prevent readmission and inform resource allocation in the transition of care to the outpatient setting. This study also demonstrated the feasibility of linking a national subspecialty registry to a clinical and administrative data repository to follow longitudinal outcomes of interest.

Cardiac Biomarkers Associated With Hospital Length of Stay After Pediatric Congenital Heart Surgery

BACKGROUND

Prolonged hospital length of stay after congenital heart surgery is a significant cost burden and is associated with postoperative morbidity. Our goal was to evaluate the association between pre- and postoperative biomarker levels and in-hospital length of stay for children after congenital heart surgery.

METHODS

We enrolled patients <18 years of age who underwent at least 1 congenital heart operation at Johns Hopkins Hospital from 2010 to 2014. Blood samples were collected before the index operation and at the end of the bypass. ST2 and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements were evaluated as log-transformed, median, and tercile cut-points. We evaluated the association between pre- and postoperative NT-proBNP and ST2 measurements with in-hospital postoperative length of stay using multivariate logistic regression. We adjusted for covariates used in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Mortality Risk Model.

RESULTS

In our cohort 45% of our patients had an in-hospital postoperative length of stay longer than the median. Before adjustment preoperative NT-proBNP above the population median and the highest tercile exhibited a significantly longer in-hospital length of stay. After adjustment for covariates in the risk model, pre- and postoperative ST2 and NT-proBNP demonstrated a significantly longer length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative ST2 and NT-proBNP had a significant association with increased postoperative in-hospital length of stay before and after adjustment. ST2 in particular could be used to guide an earlier assessment of patient risk for complications that may lead to adverse outcomes.

ST2 Predicts Risk of Unplanned Readmission Within 1 Year After Pediatric Congenital Heart Surgery

BACKGROUND

Approximately 10% to 20% of children are readmitted after congenital heart surgery. Very little is known about biomarkers as predictors of risk of unplanned readmission after pediatric congenital heart surgery. Novel cardiac biomarker ST2 may be associated with risk of unplanned readmission. ST2 concentrations are believed to reflect cardiovascular stress and fibrosis. Our objective was to explore the relationship between pre- and postoperative ST2 biomarker levels and risk of readmission within 1 year after congenital heart surgery.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled pediatric patients aged < 18 years who underwent at least 1 congenital heart operation at Johns Hopkins Hospital from 2010 to 2014. Plasma samples were collected immediately before surgery and at the end of bypass. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression models to adjust for variables used in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database mortality risk model.

RESULTS

Of our cohort of 145 patients, we found 39 children with readmissions within 365 days. The median time to unplanned readmission was 54 days (interquartile range, 10-153). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant difference across terciles of pre- and postoperative ST2 biomarker levels. After adjustment, elevated serum levels of ST2 measured preoperatively and postoperatively were associated with increased risk of readmission (hazard ratio, 2.5-3.7; all P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated levels of ST2 are significantly associated with increased risk of unplanned readmission within 1 year after pediatric congenital heart surgery. Novel serum biomarker ST2 can be used for risk stratification or estimating postsurgical prognosis.

The Association between Cytokines and 365-Day Readmission or Mortality in Adult Cardiac Surgery

Cardiac surgery results in a multifactorial systemic inflammatory response with inflammatory cytokines, such as interleukin-10 and 6 (IL-10 and IL-6), shown to have potential in the prediction of adverse outcomes including readmission or mortality. This study sought to measure the association between IL-6 and IL-10 levels and 1-year hospital readmission or mortality following cardiac surgery. Plasma biomarkers IL-6 and IL-10 were measured in 1,047 patients discharged alive after isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery from eight medical centers participating in the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group between 2004 and 2007. Readmission status and mortality were ascertained using Medicare, state all-payer claims, and the National Death Index. We evaluated the association between preoperative and postoperative cytokines and 1-year readmission or mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox's proportional hazards modeling, adjusting for covariates used in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons 30-day readmission model. The median follow-up time was 1 year. After adjustment, patients in the highest tertile of postoperative IL-6 values had a significantly increased risk of readmission or death within 1 year (HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.03-1.85), and an increased risk of death within 1 year of discharge (HR: 4.88; 95% CI: 1.26-18.85) compared with patients in the lowest tertile. However, postoperative IL-10 levels, although increasing through tertiles, were not found to be significantly associated independently with 1-year readmission or mortality (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: .93-1.69). Pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6 and anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 may be postoperative markers of cardiac injury, and IL-6, specifically, shows promise in predicting readmission and mortality following cardiac surgery.