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Shams SR, Choi Y, Singh D, Ghahremanloo M, Momeni M, Park J. Innovative approaches for accurate ozone prediction and health risk analysis in South Korea: The combined effectiveness of deep learning and AirQ. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 946:174158. [PMID: 38909816 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2024] [Revised: 05/28/2024] [Accepted: 06/18/2024] [Indexed: 06/25/2024]
Abstract
Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone (O3) poses significant health risks, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and mortality. This study addresses the pressing need for accurate O3 forecasting to mitigate these risks, focusing on South Korea. We introduce Deep Bias Correction (Deep-BC), a novel framework leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to refine hourly O3 forecasts from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Our approach involves training Deep-BC using data from 2016 to 2019, including CMAQ's 72-hour O3 forecasts, 31 meteorological variables from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and previous days' station measurements of 6 air pollutants. Deep-BC significantly outperforms CMAQ in 2021, reducing biases in O3 forecasts. Furthermore, we utilize Deep-BC's daily maximum 8-hour average O3 (MDA8 O3) forecasts as input for the AirQ+ model to assess O3's potential impact on mortality across seven major provinces of South Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Sejong. Short-term O3 exposure is associated with 0.40 % to 0.48 % of natural cause and respiratory deaths and 0.67 % to 0.81 % of cardiovascular deaths. Gender-specific analysis reveals higher mortality rates among men, particularly from respiratory causes. Our findings underscore the critical need for region-specific interventions to address air pollution's detrimental effects on public health in South Korea. By providing improved O3 predictions and quantifying its impact on mortality, this research offers valuable insights for formulating targeted strategies to mitigate air pollution's adverse effects. Moreover, we highlight the urgency of proactive measures in health policies, emphasizing the significance of accurate forecasting and effective interventions to safeguard public health from the deleterious effects of air pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seyedeh Reyhaneh Shams
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA
| | - Yunsoo Choi
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA.
| | - Deveshwar Singh
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA
| | - Masoud Ghahremanloo
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA
| | - Mahmoudreza Momeni
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA
| | - Jincheol Park
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA
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Vachon J, Kerckhoffs J, Buteau S, Smargiassi A. Do Machine Learning Methods Improve Prediction of Ambient Air Pollutants with High Spatial Contrast? A Systematic Review. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024:119751. [PMID: 39117059 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Revised: 07/18/2024] [Accepted: 08/04/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE The use of machine learning for air pollution modelling is rapidly increasing. We conducted a systematic review of studies comparing statistical and machine learning models predicting the spatiotemporal variation of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ultrafine particles (UFPs) and black carbon (BC) to determine whether and in which scenarios machine learning generates more accurate predictions. METHODS Web of Science and Scopus were searched up to June 13, 2024. All records were screened by two independent reviewers. Differences in the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between best statistical and machine learning methods were compared across categories of methodological elements. RESULTS A total of 38 studies with 46 model comparisons (30 for NO2, 8 for UFPs and 8 for BC) were included. Linear non-regularized methods and Random Forest were most frequently used. Machine learning outperformed statistical models in 34 comparisons. Mean differences (95% confidence intervals) in R2 and RMSE between best machine learning and statistical models were 0.12 (0.08, 0.17) and 20% (11%, 29%) respectively. Tree-based methods performed best in 12 of 17 multi-model comparisons. Nonlinear or regularization regression methods were used in only 12 comparisons and provided similar performance to machine learning methods. CONCLUSION This systematic review suggests that machine learning methods, especially tree-based methods, may be superior to linear non-regularized methods for predicting ambient concentrations of NO2, UFPs and BC. Additional comparison studies using nonlinear, regularized and a wider array of machine learning methods are needed to confirm their relative performance. Future air pollution studies would also benefit from more explicit and standardized reporting of methodologies and results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julien Vachon
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada; Center for Public Health Research (CReSP), University of Montreal and CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, Canada.
| | - Jules Kerckhoffs
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Stéphane Buteau
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada; Center for Public Health Research (CReSP), University of Montreal and CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, Canada
| | - Audrey Smargiassi
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Montreal, Montreal, Canada; Center for Public Health Research (CReSP), University of Montreal and CIUSSS du Centre-Sud-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, Montreal, Canada
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Chianese E, Riccio A. Long-term variation in exposure to NO 2 concentrations in the city of Naples, Italy: Results of a citizen science project. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 931:172799. [PMID: 38705307 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 04/05/2024] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2024]
Abstract
The objective of this study is to evaluate long-term changes in the level of exposure to NO2 among the population living in the urban area of Naples (south Italy). This has been achieved by integrating data from the regional reference monitoring network with information collected during the citizen science initiative called 'NO2, NO grazie!' conducted in February 2020 and coordinated by the Non-Governmental Organisation 'Cittadini per l'aria'. This citizen science campaign was based on low-cost passive samplers (Palmes tubes), providing the ability to obtain unprecedented high-resolution NO2 levels. Using a Land Use Random Forest (LURF), we extrapolated the experimental data obtained from the citizen science campaign and evaluated the changes in population exposure from 2013 to 2022 and the uncertainty associated with this assessment was quantified. The results indicate that a large proportion of the inhabitants of Naples are still exposed to high NO2 concentrations, even if strict emission containment measures are enforced. The average levels remain higher than the new interim and air quality targets suggested by the World Health Organisation. The implementation of co-created citizen science projects, where NGO and citizens actively participate alongside scientists, can significantly improve the estimation and the interpretation of official reference data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Chianese
- Pathenope University of Naples, Centro Direzionale, Isola C4, Naples 80143, Italy.
| | - Angelo Riccio
- Pathenope University of Naples, Centro Direzionale, Isola C4, Naples 80143, Italy.
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Zeeshan N, Murtaza G, Ahmad HR, Awan AN, Shahbaz M, Freer-Smith P. Particulate and gaseous air pollutants exceed WHO guideline values and have the potential to damage human health in Faisalabad, Metropolitan, Pakistan. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2024; 196:659. [PMID: 38916809 PMCID: PMC11199306 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-12763-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2024] [Indexed: 06/26/2024]
Abstract
First-ever measurements of particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10, and TSP) along with gaseous pollutants (CO, NO2, and SO2) were performed from June 2019 to April 2020 in Faisalabad, Metropolitan, Pakistan, to assess their seasonal variations; Summer 2019, Autumn 2019, Winter 2019-2020, and Spring 2020. Pollutant measurements were carried out at 30 locations with a 3-km grid distance from the Sitara Chemical Industry in District Faisalabad to Bhianwala, Sargodha Road, Tehsil Lalian, District Chiniot. ArcGIS 10.8 was used to interpolate pollutant concentrations using the inverse distance weightage method. PM2.5, PM10, and TSP concentrations were highest in summer, and lowest in autumn or winter. CO, NO2, and SO2 concentrations were highest in summer or spring and lowest in winter. Seasonal average NO2 and SO2 concentrations exceeded WHO annual air quality guide values. For all 4 seasons, some sites had better air quality than others. Even in these cleaner sites air quality index (AQI) was unhealthy for sensitive groups and the less good sites showed Very critical AQI (> 500). Dust-bound carbon and sulfur contents were higher in spring (64 mg g-1) and summer (1.17 mg g-1) and lower in autumn (55 mg g-1) and winter (1.08 mg g-1). Venous blood analysis of 20 individuals showed cadmium and lead concentrations higher than WHO permissible limits. Those individuals exposed to direct roadside pollution for longer periods because of their occupation tended to show higher Pb and Cd blood concentrations. It is concluded that air quality along the roadside is extremely poor and potentially damaging to the health of exposed workers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nukshab Zeeshan
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan
| | - Ghulam Murtaza
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan
| | - Hamaad Raza Ahmad
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan
| | - Abdul Nasir Awan
- Department of Structures and Environmental Engineering, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Shahbaz
- Department of Botany, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan
| | - Peter Freer-Smith
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
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Chen K, Li G, Li H, Wang Y, Wang W, Liu Q, Wang H. Quantifying uncertainty: Air quality forecasting based on dynamic spatial-temporal denoising diffusion probabilistic model. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 249:118438. [PMID: 38350546 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2024] [Revised: 02/04/2024] [Accepted: 02/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/15/2024]
Abstract
Air pollution constitutes a substantial peril to human health, thereby catalyzing the evolution of an array of air quality prediction models. These models span from mechanistic and statistical strategies to machine learning methodologies. The burgeoning field of deep learning has given rise to a plethora of advanced models, which have demonstrated commendable performance. However, previous investigations have overlooked the salience of quantifying prediction uncertainties and potential future interconnections among air monitoring stations. Moreover, prior research typically utilized static predetermined spatial relationships, neglecting dynamic dependencies. To address these limitations, we propose a model named Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DST-DDPM) for air quality prediction. Our model is underpinned by the renowned denoising diffusion model, aiding us in discerning indeterminacy. In order to encapsulate dynamic patterns, we design a dynamic context encoder to generate dynamic adjacency matrices, whilst maintaining static spatial information. Furthermore, we incorporate a spatial-temporal denoising model to concurrently learn both spatial and temporal dependencies. Authenticating our model's performance using a real-world dataset collected in Beijing, the outcomes indicate that our model eclipses other baseline models in terms of both short-term and long-term predictions by 1.36% and 11.62% respectively. Finally, we conduct a case study to exhibit our model's capacity to quantify uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kehua Chen
- Division of Emerging Interdisciplinary Areas (EMIA), Interdisciplinary Programs Office, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Guangbo Li
- Division of Emerging Interdisciplinary Areas (EMIA), Interdisciplinary Programs Office, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hewen Li
- State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Yuqi Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Wenzhe Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Qingyi Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Hongcheng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
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Zhao Z, Lu Y, Zhan Y, Cheng Y, Yang F, Brook JR, He K. Long-term spatiotemporal variations in surface NO 2 for Beijing reconstructed from surface data and satellite retrievals. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 904:166693. [PMID: 37657553 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Revised: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/03/2023]
Abstract
Remote sensing data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) play important roles in estimating surface nitrogen dioxide (NO2), but few studies have compared their differences for application in surface NO2 reconstruction. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of incorporating the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) from OMI and TROPOMI (hereafter referred to as OMI and TROPOMI, respectively, for conciseness) for deriving surface NO2 and to apply the resulting data to revisit the spatiotemporal variations in surface NO2 for Beijing over the 2005-2020 period during which there were significant reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions. In the OMI versus TROPOMI performance comparison, the cross-validation R2 values were 0.73 and 0.72, respectively, at 1 km resolution and 0.69 for both at 100 m resolution. The comparisons between satellite data sources indicate that even though TROPOMI has a finer resolution it does not improve upon OMI for deriving surface NO2 at 1 km resolution, especially for analyzing long-term trends. In light of the comparison results, we used a hybrid approach based on machine learning to derive the spatiotemporal distribution of surface NO2 during 2005-2020 based on OMI. We had novel, independent passive sampling data collected weekly from July to September of 2008 for hindcasting validation and found a spatiotemporal R2 of 0.46 (RMSE = 7.0 ppb). Regarding the long-term trend of surface NO2, the level in 2008 was obviously lower than that in 2007 and 2009, as expected, which was attributed to pollution restrictions during the Olympic Games. The NO2 level started to steadily decline from 2015 and fell below 2008's level after 2017. Based on OMI, a long-term and fine-resolution surface NO2 dataset was developed for Beijing to support future environmental management questions and epidemiological research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zixiang Zhao
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China
| | - Yichen Lu
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China
| | - Yu Zhan
- College of Carbon Neutrality Future Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China.
| | - Yuan Cheng
- State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and Environment, School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
| | - Fumo Yang
- College of Carbon Neutrality Future Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China
| | - Jeffrey R Brook
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Kebin He
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Yin PY. Spatiotemporal retrieval and feature analysis of air pollution episodes. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2023; 20:16824-16845. [PMID: 37920036 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2023]
Abstract
Air pollution has inevitably come along with the economic development of human society. How to balance economic growth with a sustainable environment has been a global concern. The ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) is particularly life-threatening because these tiny aerosols could be inhaled into the human respiration system and cause millions of premature deaths every year. The focus of most relevant research has been placed on apportionment of pollutants and the forecast of PM2.5 concentration measures. However, the spatiotemporal variations of pollution regions and their relationships to local factors are not much contemplated in the literature. These local factors include, at least, land terrain, meteorological conditions and anthropogenic activities. In this paper, we propose an interactive analysis platform for spatiotemporal retrieval and feature analysis of air pollution episodes. A domain expert can interact with the platform by specifying the episode analysis intention considering various local factors to reach the analysis goals. The analysis platform consists of two main components. The first component offers a query-by-sketch function where the domain expert can search similar pollution episodes by sketching the spatial relationship between the pollution regions and the land objects. The second component helps the domain expert choose a retrieved episode to conduct spatiotemporal feature analysis in a time span. The integrated platform automatically searches the episodes most resembling the domain expert's original sketch and detects when and where the episode emerges and diminishes. These functions are helpful for domain experts to infer insights into how local factors result in particular pollution episodes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng-Yeng Yin
- Information Technology and Management Program, Ming Chuan University, 5 De-Ming Road, Gui-Shan District, Taoyuan City, 333321, Taiwan
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Li Y, Sha Z, Tang A, Goulding K, Liu X. The application of machine learning to air pollution research: A bibliometric analysis. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY 2023; 257:114911. [PMID: 37154080 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2023.114911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Revised: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/10/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) is an advanced computer algorithm that simulates the human learning process to solve problems. With an explosion of monitoring data and the increasing demand for fast and accurate prediction, ML models have been rapidly developed and applied in air pollution research. In order to explore the status of ML applications in air pollution research, a bibliometric analysis was made based on 2962 articles published from 1990 to 2021. The number of publications increased sharply after 2017, comprising approximately 75% of the total. Institutions in China and United States contributed half of all publications with most research being conducted by individual groups rather than global collaborations. Cluster analysis revealed four main research topics for the application of ML: chemical characterization of pollutants, short-term forecasting, detection improvement and optimizing emission control. The rapid development of ML algorithms has increased the capability to explore the chemical characteristics of multiple pollutants, analyze chemical reactions and their driving factors, and simulate scenarios. Combined with multi-field data, ML models are a powerful tool for analyzing atmospheric chemical processes and evaluating the management of air quality and deserve greater attention in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunzhe Li
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Farmland Soil Pollution Prevention and Remediation, College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Zhipeng Sha
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Farmland Soil Pollution Prevention and Remediation, College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Aohan Tang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Farmland Soil Pollution Prevention and Remediation, College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
| | - Keith Goulding
- Sustainable Soils and Crops, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Xuejun Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Farmland Soil Pollution Prevention and Remediation, College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
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