Air Quality Impact of Diffuse and Inefficient Combustion Emissions in Africa (DICE-Africa)

Atmospheric fate and impacts of HFO-1234yf from mobile air conditioners in East Asia

HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) is being used as refrigerant to replace HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane), a potent greenhouse gas, in mobile air conditioners. However, the environmental impacts of HFO-1234yf, which is quickly and almost completely transformed to the persistent and phytotoxic trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), is of great concern. Here, we used the nested-grid chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, to assess the fate and environmental impacts of HFO-1234yf emissions from mobile air conditioners in East Asia. With total emissions of 30.3 Gg yr-1, the annual mean concentrations of HFO-1234yf in China, Japan, and South Korea were 4.00, 3.23, and 5.54 pptv (parts per trillion volume), respectively, and the annual deposition fluxes (dry plus wet) of TFA in these regions were 0.35, 0.48, and 0.53 kg km-2 yr-1, dominated by wet deposition. About 14 %, 13 % and 11 % of HFO-1234yf emissions were deposited as TFA in China, Japan and South Korea, respectively, i.e. a large portion of TFA was deposited in areas outside of the emission boundary regions. The TFA characteristics in Japan and South Korea was significantly influenced by emission from China, which contributions ranged from 43 % to 94 % for the TFA concentrations and 44 % to 98 % for the TFA depositions across the four seasons. This suggests that the influence of neighboring emission sources cannot be ignored when assessing the impact of HFO-1234yf emissions in individual countries.

Inequalities in urban air pollution in sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical modeling of ambient NO and NO2 concentrations in Accra, Ghana

Road traffic has become the leading source of air pollution in fast-growing sub-Saharan African cities. Yet, there is a dearth of robust city-wide data for understanding space-time variations and inequalities in combustion related emissions and exposures. We combined nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitric oxide (NO) measurement data from 134 locations in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), with geographical, meteorological, and population factors in spatio-temporal mixed effects models to predict NO2 and NO concentrations at fine spatial (50 m) and temporal (weekly) resolution over the entire GAMA. Model performance was evaluated with 10-fold cross-validation (CV), and predictions were summarized as annual and seasonal (dusty [Harmattan] and rainy [non-Harmattan]) mean concentrations. The predictions were used to examine population distributions of, and socioeconomic inequalities in, exposure at the census enumeration area (EA) level. The models explained 88% and 79% of the spatiotemporal variability in NO2 and NO concentrations, respectively. The mean predicted annual, non-Harmattan and Harmattan NO2 levels were 37 (range: 1-189), 28 (range: 1-170) and 50 (range: 1-195) µg m-3, respectively. Unlike NO2, NO concentrations were highest in the non-Harmattan season (41 [range: 31-521] µg m-3). Road traffic was the dominant factor for both pollutants, but NO2 had higher spatial heterogeneity than NO. For both pollutants, the levels were substantially higher in the city core, where the entire population (100%) was exposed to annual NO2 levels exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline of 10 µg m-3. Significant disparities in NO2 concentrations existed across socioeconomic gradients, with residents in the poorest communities exposed to levels about 15 µg m-3 higher compared with the wealthiest (p < 0.001). The results showed the important role of road traffic emissions in air pollution concentrations in the GAMA, which has major implications for the health of the city's poorest residents. These data could support climate and health impact assessments as well as policy evaluations in the city.

Model Simulations and Predictions of Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China: Roles of Aqueous Aerosols and Atmospheric Acidity

Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) has been found to be an abundant organosulfur aerosol compound in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with a measured maximum daily mean concentration of up to 10 μg per cubic meter in winter. However, the production medium of HMS in aerosols is controversial, and it is unknown whether chemical transport models are able to capture the variations of HMS during individual haze events. In this work, we modify the parametrization of HMS chemistry in the nested-grid GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, whose simulations provide a good account of the field measurements during winter haze episodes. We find the contribution of the aqueous aerosol pathway to total HMS is about 36% in winter in Beijing, due primarily to the enhancement effect of the ionic strength on the rate constants of the reaction between dissolved formaldehyde and sulfite. Our simulations suggest that the HMS-to-inorganic sulfate ratio will increase from the baseline of 7% to 13% in the near future, given the ambitious clean air and climate mitigation policies for the BTH region. The more rapid reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx compared to NH3 alter the atmospheric acidity, which is a critical factor leading to the rising importance of HMS in particulate sulfur species.

Adverse effects of exposure to petrol-generator exhaust fumes on the reproductive hormones, testis and spermatozoa in male dogs

There is evidence that sperm count has progressively declined in men over the recent decades. Exposure to air pollutants including petrol and diesel exhaust have been reported to impair male reproduction although there is little experimental evidence. This study investigated the effects of petrol-generator exhaust fumes (PGEF) on semen, sperm, gonadal structure and hormonal status in the dog. Sixteen adult male Basenji dogs were randomly assigned four to each of 4 groups as follows: an unexposed (Control) group and three groups exposed to graded levels of PGEF for 1, 2 or 3 h per day (hpd), respectively, for 90 days. Serum concentrations of testosterone (T), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured on days 0 (baseline), 30, 60 and 90 of the study. At day 90, semen samples were collected for semen and sperm analysis. Testicular and epididymal tissues were subjected to gross, histopathological and histomorphometric evaluation. Graded exposure to PGEF resulted in increased serum concentration of T and decreased concentrations of FSH and LH, increased seminal plasma lipid peroxidation, seminiferous and epididymal tubular degeneration, germ cell depletion, lowered sperm concentration, decreased sperm motility and vitality, and increased sperm abnormal morphology. The close proximity between dogs and humans in exposed environments underscores the importance of these findings to human reproductive health and fertility. The findings suggest that with prolonged exposure, the impairment of reproductive functions will likely play significant roles in the decline in male fertility.

Spatial distribution of aerosols burden and evaluation of changes in aerosol optical depth using multi-approach observations in tropical region

Understanding of Aerosol optical depth (AOD) parameter is important for air quality assessment. This study aims to evaluate and validate AOD measurements from combine datasets to improve air quality for a period 2005-2020 using Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) at Ilorin site (8.320° N, 4.340° E) in Nigeria. AOD outputs from Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 with chemistry (CAM6-chem) at 1° horizontal resolution and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) are investigated in addition to validation of two satellites AOD retrievals: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR). Result of spatial distribution of AOD shows high values > 1 in the North and Western Sahara compared to Central Africa. Desert dust shows largest contribution in the North and Western Africa that is up to 2 magnitude larger than other aerosol types. Primary organic matter (POM) and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) both presents high burdens with later been dominant at around 10° band, and black carbon (BC) largest burden (2.6 × 10 - 5 kgm - 2) is seen in the model from oil and gas exploration site in Nigeria. Inter-comparison of MERRA/MISR/MODIS and AERONET AOD using linear correlation of the seasonal dependence demonstrated high correlation (r = 0.864 - 0.973) subjected to Root Mean Square Error (RMSE = 0.069 - 0.211), suggesting good agreement between the datasets. When compared to seasonal mean maximum AERONET AOD value of 0.978 MERRA is ∼5%, MISR ∼28% and MODIS ∼29% lower with stronger correlations observed in the wet and pre-harmattan seasons. Similarly, MODEL AOD at 550 nm and dust burden were found to be ∼34% and ∼67% lower in context to AERONET AOD annual mean value of 0.627. Positive relationships that indicate an upward slope exist between all the computed datasets with moderate value of AERONET/CAM-chem spearman partial correlation, and MERRA/MODIS and MODIS/MISR showing strong and significant relationship with p-value less than 0.05. Low variance is observed with all measurements except in MERRA.

Low-Cost Sensor Performance Intercomparison, Correction Factor Development, and 2+ Years of Ambient PM2.5 Monitoring in Accra, Ghana

Particulate matter air pollution is a leading cause of global mortality, particularly in Asia and Africa. Addressing the high and wide-ranging air pollution levels requires ambient monitoring, but many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remain scarcely monitored. To address these data gaps, recent studies have utilized low-cost sensors. These sensors have varied performance, and little literature exists about sensor intercomparison in Africa. By colocating 2 QuantAQ Modulair-PM, 2 PurpleAir PA-II SD, and 16 Clarity Node-S Generation II monitors with a reference-grade Teledyne monitor in Accra, Ghana, we present the first intercomparisons of different brands of low-cost sensors in Africa, demonstrating that each type of low-cost sensor PM2.5 is strongly correlated with reference PM2.5, but biased high for ambient mixture of sources found in Accra. When compared to a reference monitor, the QuantAQ Modulair-PM has the lowest mean absolute error at 3.04 μg/m3, followed by PurpleAir PA-II (4.54 μg/m3) and Clarity Node-S (13.68 μg/m3). We also compare the usage of 4 statistical or machine learning models (Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest, Gaussian Mixture Regression, and XGBoost) to correct low-cost sensors data, and find that XGBoost performs the best in testing (R2: 0.97, 0.94, 0.96; mean absolute error: 0.56, 0.80, and 0.68 μg/m3 for PurpleAir PA-II, Clarity Node-S, and Modulair-PM, respectively), but tree-based models do not perform well when correcting data outside the range of the colocation training. Therefore, we used Gaussian Mixture Regression to correct data from the network of 17 Clarity Node-S monitors deployed around Accra, Ghana, from 2018 to 2021. We find that the network daily average PM2.5 concentration in Accra is 23.4 μg/m3, which is 1.6 times the World Health Organization Daily PM2.5 guideline of 15 μg/m3. While this level is lower than those seen in some larger African cities (such as Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo), mitigation strategies should be developed soon to prevent further impairment to air quality as Accra, and Ghana as a whole, rapidly grow.

Global PM2.5 and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) levels with sectorial contribution to anthropogenic and biogenic SOA formation

This study estimates global PM_2.5 and anthropogenic and biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosols (a-SOA and b-SOA) and sources contributing to their formation. The global landscape was divided into eleven domains (North America (NAM); South America (SAM); Europe (EUR); North Africa and Middle East (NAF); Equatorial Africa (EAF); South of Africa (SAF); Russia and Central Asia (RUS); Eastern Asia (EAS); South Asia (SAS); Southeast Asia (SEA) and Australia (AUS)) and 46 cities based on varying populations. Three inventories for global emissions were considered: Community Emissions Data System, Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosol, and Global Fire Emissions Database. WRF-Chem model coupled with atmospheric reactions and the secondary organic aerosol model was employed for estimating PM_2.5, a-SOA, and b-SOA for 2018. No city attained WHO's annual PM_2.5 guideline of 5 μg/m³. Delhi, Dhaka, and Kolkata (63-92 μg/m³) in south Asia were the most polluted, and seven cities (mostly in EUR and NAM) met the WHO target IV (10 μg/m³). The highest SOA levels (2-9 μg/m³) were in the cities of SAS and Africa, but with a low SOA contribution to PM_2.5 (3-22%). However, the low levels of SOA (1-3 μg/m³) in EUR and NAM had a higher contribution of SOA to PM_2.5 (20-33%). b-SOA were consistent with the region's vegetation and forest cover. The SOA contribution was dominated by residential emissions in all domains (except in the NAF and AUS) (maximum in SAS). The non-coal industry was the second highest contributor (except in EAF, NAF, and AUS) and EUR had the maximum contribution from agriculture and transport. Globally, residential and industry (non-coal and coal) sectors showed the maximum contribution to SOA, with a-SOA and b-SOA being nearly equal. Ridding of biomass and residential burning of solid fuel is the single most action benefiting the PM_2.5 and SOA concerns.

Maternal exposure to extreme high-temperature, particulate air pollution and macrosomia in 14 countries of Africa

BACKGROUND

Macrosomia has increased rapidly worldwide in the past few decades, with a huge impact on health. However, the effect of PM_2.5 and extreme high-temperature (EHT) on macrosomia has been ignored.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the association between maternal exposure to EHT, PM_2.5 and macrosomia based on the Seventh Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 14 countries of Africa.

METHODS

The study included detailed demographic information on 106 382 births and maternal. Satellite inversion models estimated monthly mean PM_2.5 and mean surface temperature of 2 m (SMT_2m ). Macrosomia was defined as the birth weight ≥ 4000 g. We used a Cox proportional risk regression model to estimate the association between PM_2.5 , EHT and macrosomia. We further explored the susceptibility of exposure to EHT and PM_2.5 at different pregnancy periods to macrosomia, and plotted the expose-response curve between PM_2.5 and macrosomia risk using a restricted cubic spline function. In addition, the Interplot model was used to investigate the interaction between EHT and PM_2.5 on macrosomia. Finally, some potential confounding factors were analysed by stratification.

RESULTS

There was the positive association between EHT, PM_2.5 and macrosomia, and the risk of macrosomia with the increase in concentrations of PM_2.5 without clear threshold. Meanwhile, EHT and PM_2.5 had a higher effect on macrosomia in middle/later and early/middle stages of pregnancy, respectively. There was a significant interaction between EHT and PM_2.5 on macrosomia.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal exposure to EHT, PM_2.5 during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of macrosomia in Africa.

A global review of the state of the evidence of household air pollution's contribution to ambient fine particulate matter and their related health impacts

Direct exposure to household fine particulate air pollution (HAP) associated with inefficient combustion of fuels (wood, charcoal, coal, crop residues, kerosene, etc.) for cooking, space-heating, and lighting is estimated to result in 2.3 (1.6-3.1) million premature yearly deaths globally. HAP emitted indoors escapes outdoors and is a leading source of outdoor ambient fine particulate air pollution (AAP) in low- and middle-income countries, often being a larger contributor than well-recognized sources including road transport, industry, coal-fired power plants, brick kilns, and construction dust. We review published scientific studies that model the contribution of HAP to AAP at global and major sub-regional scales. We describe strengths and limitations of the current state of knowledge on HAP's contribution to AAP and the related impact on public health and provide recommendations to improve these estimates. We find that HAP is a dominant source of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) globally - regardless of variations in model types, configurations, and emission inventories used - that contributes approximately 20 % of total global PM2.5 exposure. There are large regional variations: in South Asia, HAP contributes ∼ 30 % of ambient PM2.5, while in high-income North America the fraction is ∼ 7 %. The median estimate indicates that the household contribution to ambient air pollution results in a substantial premature mortality burden globally of about 0.77(0.54-1) million excess deaths, in addition to the 2.3 (1.6-3.1) million deaths from direct HAP exposure. Coordinated global action is required to avert this burden.

The Effects of Trash, Residential Biofuel, and Open Biomass Burning Emissions on Local and Transported PM2.5 and Its Attributed Mortality in Africa

Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the second leading risk factor of premature death in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use GEOS-Chem to quantify the effects of (a) trash burning, (b) residential solid-fuel burning, and (c) open biomass burning (BB) (i.e., landscape fires) on ambient PM_2.5 and PM_2.5-attributable mortality in Africa. Using a series of sensitivity simulations, we excluded each of the three combustion sources in each of five African regions. We estimate that in 2017 emissions from these three combustion sources within Africa increased global ambient PM_2.5 by 2%, leading to 203,000 (95% confidence interval: 133,000-259,000) premature mortalities yr^-1 globally and 167,000 premature mortalities yr^-1 in Africa. BB contributes more ambient PM_2.5-related premature mortalities per year (63%) than residential solid-fuel burning (29%) and trash burning (8%). Open BB in Central Africa leads to the largest number of PM_2.5-attributed mortalities inside the region, while trash burning in North Africa and residential solid-fuel burning in West Africa contribute the most regional mortalities for each source. Overall, Africa has a unique ambient air pollution profile because natural sources, such as windblown dust and BB, contribute strongly to ambient PM_2.5 levels and PM_2.5-related mortality. Air pollution policies may need to focus on taking preventative measures to avoid exposure to ambient PM_2.5 from these less-controllable sources.

Vapors Are Lost to Walls, Not to Particles on the Wall: Artifact-Corrected Parameters from Chamber Experiments and Implications for Global Secondary Organic Aerosol

Atmospheric models of secondary organic aerosol (OA) (SOA) typically rely on parameters derived from environmental chambers. Chambers are subject to experimental artifacts, including losses of (1) particles to the walls (PWL), (2) vapors to the particles on the wall (V2PWL), and (3) vapors to the wall directly (VWL). We present a method for deriving artifact-corrected SOA parameters and translating these to volatility basis set (VBS) parameters for use in chemical transport models (CTMs). Our process involves combining a box model that accounts for chamber artifacts (Statistical Oxidation Model with a TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional model (SOM-TOMAS)) with a pseudo-atmospheric simulation to develop VBS parameters that are fit across a range of OA mass concentrations. We found that VWL led to the highest percentage change in chamber SOA mass yields (high NO_x: 36-680%; low NO_x: 55-250%), followed by PWL (high NO_x: 8-39%; low NO_x: 10-37%), while the effects of V2PWL are negligible. In contrast to earlier work that assumed that V2PWL was a meaningful loss pathway, we show that V2PWL is an unimportant SOA loss pathway and can be ignored when analyzing chamber data. Using our updated VBS parameters, we found that not accounting for VWL may lead surface-level OA to be underestimated by 24% (0.25 μg m^-3) as a global average or up to 130% (9.0 μg m^-3) in regions of high biogenic or anthropogenic activity. Finally, we found that accurately accounting for PWL and VWL improves model-measurement agreement for fine mode aerosol mass concentrations (PM_2.5) in the GEOS-Chem model.

Remote Aerosol Simulated During the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Campaign and Implications for Aerosol Lifetime

We investigate and assess how well a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulates submicron aerosol mass concentrations in the remote troposphere. The simulated speciated aerosol (organic aerosol (OA), black carbon, sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) mass concentrations are evaluated against airborne observations made during all four seasons of the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) deployments over the remote Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Such measurements over pristine environments offer fresh insights into the spatial (Northern [NH] and Southern Hemispheres [SH], Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans) and temporal (all seasons) variability in aerosol composition and lifetime, away from continental sources. The model captures the dominance of fine OA and sulfate aerosol mass concentrations in all seasons. There is a high bias across all species in the ATom-2 (NH winter) simulations; implementing recent updates to the wet scavenging parameterization improves our simulations, eliminating the large ATom-2 (NH winter) bias, improving the ATom-1 (NH summer) and ATom-3 (NH fall) simulations, but producing a model underestimate in aerosol mass concentrations for the ATom-4 (NH spring) simulations. Following the wet scavenging updates, simulated global annual mean aerosol lifetimes vary from 1.9 to 4.0 days, depending on species. Aerosol lifetimes in each hemisphere vary by season, and are longest for carbonaceous aerosol during the southern hemispheric fire season. The updated wet scavenging parameterization brings simulated concentrations closer to observations and reduces global aerosol lifetime for all species, indicating the sensitivity of global aerosol lifetime and burden to wet removal processes.

Atmospheric Black Carbon Loadings and Sources over Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa Are Governed by the Regional Savanna Fires

Vast black carbon (BC) emissions from sub-Saharan Africa are perceived to warm the regional climate, impact rainfall patterns, and impair human respiratory health. However, the magnitudes of these perturbations are ill-constrained, largely due to limited ground-based observations and uncertainties in emissions from different sources. This paper reports multiyear concentrations of BC and other key PM_2.5 aerosol constituents from the Rwanda Climate Observatory, serving as a regional receptor site. We find a strong seasonal cycle for all investigated chemical species, where the maxima coincide with large-scale upwind savanna fires. BC concentrations show notable interannual variability, with no clear long-term trend. The Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C signatures of BC unambiguously show highly elevated biomass burning contributions, up to 93 ± 3%, with a clear and strong savanna burning imprint. We further observe a near-equal contribution from C3 and C4 plants, irrespective of air mass source region or season. In addition, the study provides improved relative emission factors of key aerosol components, organic carbon (OC), K⁺, and NO₃^-, in savanna-fires-influenced background atmosphere. Altogether, we report quantitative source constraints on Eastern Africa BC emissions, with implications for parameterization of satellite fire and bottom-up emission inventories as well as regional climate and chemical transport modeling.

Atmospheric transport drives regional interactions of ozone pollution in China

In recent years, ozone pollution becomes a serious environmental issue in China. A good understanding of source-receptor relationships of ozone transport from aboard and inside China is beneficial to mitigating ozone pollution there. To date, these issues have not been comprehensively assessed, especially for highly polluted regions in the central and eastern China (CEC), including the North China Plain (NCP), Twain-Hu region (THR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and Sichuan Basin (SCB). Here, based on simulations over 2013-2020 from a well-validated chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, we show that foreign ozone accounts for a large portion of surface ozone over CEC, ranging from 25.0% in THR to 39.4% in NCP. Focusing on transport of domestic ozone between the five regions in CEC, we find that atmospheric transport can largely modulate regional interactions of ozone pollution in China. At the surface, THR receives the largest amount of ozone from the other four regions (54.2% of domestic ozone in the receptor region, the same in below), followed by PRD (32.3%), SCB (26.7%), YRD (21.1%), and NCP (18.0%). Meanwhile, YRD exports largest amount of ozone to the other regions, ranging from 8.9% in SCB to 28.4% in THR. Although SCB is relatively isolated and thus impacts NCP, YRD, and PRD weakly (< 2.2%), export of SCB ozone to THR reaches 9.3%. The regional ozone transport over CEC, occurring mostly in the lower troposphere, is mainly modulated by the East Asian monsoon circulations, proximity between source and receptor regions, seasonal changes of ozone production, and topography.

Contributions of Various Sources to the Higher-Concentration Center of CO within the ASM Anticyclone Based on GEOS-Chem Simulations

Satellite observations show that carbon monoxide (CO) concentration centers exist in the tropopause region of the Tibetan Plateau, while their sources and formation mechanism still remain uncertain. In this paper, the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem is used to conduct sensitivity analysis in 2016. Combined with the analysis data and satellite data, the contribution of three important emission sources (South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia) and two important chemical reaction species (CH4 and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)) to CO in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are studied. The results show that in the Asian monsoon region CO emissions originating from the surface are transported to the upper troposphere via a deep convection process and then enter the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) anticyclone. The strong ASM anticyclone isolates the mixing process of air inside and outside the anticyclone, upon entry of carbon monoxide-rich air. In the lower stratosphere, the intensity of the ASM anticyclone declines and the air within the anticyclone flows southwestward with monsoon circulation. We found that in the summer Asian monsoon region, South Asia exhibited the highest carbon monoxide concentration transported to the UTLS. CH4 imposed the greatest influence on the CO concentration in the UTLS region. According to the model simulation results, the CO concentrations in the Asian monsoon region at 100 hPa altitudes were higher than those in other regions at the same latitudes. Regarding effects, 43.18% originated from CH4 chemical reactions, 20.81% originated from NMVOC chemical reactions, and 63.33% originated from surface CO emissions, while sinks yielded a negative contribution of −27.32%. Regarding surface CO emissions, East Asia contributed 13.56%, South Asia contributed 39.27%, and Southeast Asia contributed 7.15%.

Impact of Circular, Waste-Heat Reuse Pathways on PM2.5-Air Quality, CO2 Emissions, and Human Health in India: Comparison with Material Exchange Potential

India is home to 1.3 billion people who are exposed to some of the highest levels of ambient air pollution in the world. In addition, India is one of the fastest-growing carbon-emitting countries. Here, we assess how two strategies to reuse waste-heat from coal-fired power plants and other large sources would impact PM_2.5-air quality, human health, and CO₂ emissions in 2015 and a future year, 2050, using varying levels of policy adoption (current regulations, proposed single-sector policies, and ambitious single-sector strategies). We find that power plant and industrial waste-heat reuse as input to district heating systems (DHSs), a novel, multisector strategy to reduce local biomass burning for heating emissions, can offset 71.3-85.2% of residential heating demand in communities near a power plant (9.3-12.4% of the nationwide heating demand) with the highest benefits observed during winter months in areas with collocated industrial activity and higher residential heating demands (e.g., New Delhi). Utilizing waste-heat to generate electricity via organic Rankine cycles (ORCs) can generate an additional 22 (11% of total coal-fired generating capacity), 41 (8%), 32 (13%), and 6 (5%) GW of electricity capacity in the 2015, 2050-current regulations, 2050-single-sector, and 2050-ambitious-single-sector scenarios, respectively. Emission estimates utilizing these strategies were input to the GEOS-Chem model, and population-weighted, simulated PM_2.5 showed small improvements in the DHS (0.2-0.4%) and ORC (0.3-3.4%) scenarios, where the minimal DHS PM_2.5-benefit is attributed to the small contribution of biomass burning for heating to nationwide PM_2.5 emissions (much of the biomass burning activity is for cooking). The PM_2.5 reductions lead to ∼130-36,000 mortalities per year avoided among the scenarios, with the largest health benefits observed in the ORC scenarios. Nationwide CO₂ emissions reduced <0.04% by DHSs but showed larger reductions using ORCs (1.9-7.4%). Coal fly-ash as material exchange in cement and brick production was assessed, and capacity exists to completely reutilize unused fly-ash toward cement and brick production in each of the scenarios.

A Network of Field-Calibrated Low-Cost Sensor Measurements of PM2.5 in Lomé, Togo, Over One to Two Years

Air pollution is a leading cause of global premature mortality and is especially prevalent in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In sub-Saharan Africa, preliminary monitoring networks, satellite retrievals of air-quality-relevant species, and air quality models show ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations that far exceed the World Health Organization guidelines, yet many areas remain largely unmonitored and understudied. Deploying a network of five low-cost PurpleAir PM_2.5 monitors over 2 years (2019-2021), we present the first multiyear ambient air pollution monitoring data results from Lomé, Togo, a major West African coastal city with a population of about 1.4 million people. The full-study time period network-wide mean measured daily PM_2.5 concentration is 23.5 μg m^-3 m^-3. The strong regional influence of the dry and dusty Harmattan wind increases the local average PM_2.5 concentration by up to 58% during December through February, but the diurnal and weekly trends in PM_2.5 are largely controlled by local influences. At all sites, more than 87% of measured days exceeded the new WHO Daily PM_2.5 guidelines; these first measurements highlight the need for air quality improvement in a rapidly growing urban metropolis.

Rapid rise in premature mortality due to anthropogenic air pollution in fast-growing tropical cities from 2005 to 2018

Tropical cities are experiencing rapid growth but lack routine air pollution monitoring to develop prescient air quality policies. Here, we conduct targeted sampling of recent (2000s to 2010s) observations of air pollutants from space-based instruments over 46 fast-growing tropical cities. We quantify significant annual increases in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (1 to 14%), ammonia (2 to 12%), and reactive volatile organic compounds (1 to 11%) in most cities, driven almost exclusively by emerging anthropogenic sources rather than traditional biomass burning. We estimate annual increases in urban population exposure to air pollutants of 1 to 18% for fine particles (PM_2.5) and 2 to 23% for NO₂ from 2005 to 2018 and attribute 180,000 (95% confidence interval: -230,000 to 590,000) additional premature deaths in 2018 (62% increase relative to 2005) to this increase in exposure. These cities are predicted to reach populations of up to 80 million people by 2100, so regulatory action targeting emerging anthropogenic sources is urgently needed.

Wilde S. Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ¹³C_CH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ¹³C_CH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ¹³C_CH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ¹³C_CH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ¹³C_CH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ¹³C_CH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ¹³C_CH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ¹³C_CH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ¹³C_CH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2) pollution in the Accra metropolis: Spatiotemporal patterns and the role of meteorology

Economic and urban development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) may be shifting the dominant air pollution sources in cities from biomass to road traffic. Considered as a marker for traffic-related air pollution in cities, we conducted a city-wide measurement of NO_x levels in the Accra Metropolis and examined their spatiotemporal patterns in relation to land use and meteorological factors. Between April 2019 to June 2020, we collected weekly integrated NO_x (n = 428) and NO₂ (n = 472) samples at 10 fixed (year-long) and 124 rotating (week-long) sites. Data from the same time of year were compared to a previous study (2006) to assess changes in NO₂ concentrations. NO and NO₂ concentrations were highest in commercial/business/industrial (66 and 76 μg/m³, respectively) and high-density residential areas (47 and 59 μg/m³, respectively), compared with peri-urban locations. We observed annual means of 68 and 70 μg/m³ for NO and NO₂, and a clear seasonal variation, with the mean NO₂ of 63 μg/m³ (non-Harmattan) increased by 25-56% to 87 μg/m³ (Harmattan) across different site types. The NO₂/NO_x ratio was also elevated by 19-28%. Both NO and NO₂ levels were associated with indicators of road traffic emissions (e.g. distance to major roads), but not with community biomass use (e.g. wood and charcoal). We found strong correlations between both NO₂ and NO₂/NO_x and mixing layer depth, incident solar radiation and water vapor mixing ratio. These findings represent an increase of 25-180% when compared to a small study conducted in two high-density residential neighborhoods in Accra in 2006. Road traffic may be replacing community biomass use (major source of fine particulate matter) as the prominent source of air pollution in Accra, with policy implication for growing cities in SSA.

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero

The causes of methane's renewed rise since 2007, accelerated growth from 2014 and record rise in 2020, concurrent with an isotopic shift to values more depleted in ¹³C, remain poorly understood. This rise is the dominant departure from greenhouse gas scenarios that limit global heating to less than 2°C. Thus a comprehensive understanding of methane sources and sinks, their trends and inter-annual variations are becoming more urgent. Efforts to quantify both sources and sinks and understand latitudinal and seasonal variations will improve our understanding of the methane cycle and its anthropogenic component. Nationally declared emissions inventories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and promised contributions to emissions reductions under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement need to be verified independently by top-down observation. Furthermore, indirect effects on natural emissions, such as changes in aquatic ecosystems, also need to be quantified. Nitrous oxide is even more poorly understood. Despite this, options for mitigating methane and nitrous oxide emissions are improving rapidly, both in cutting emissions from gas, oil and coal extraction and use, and also from agricultural and waste sources. Reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emission are arguably among the most attractive immediate options for climate action. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Air pollution and development in Africa: impacts on health, the economy, and human capital

BACKGROUND

Africa is undergoing both an environmental and an epidemiological transition. Household air pollution is the predominant form of air pollution, but it is declining, whereas ambient air pollution is increasing. We aimed to quantify how air pollution is affecting health, human capital, and the economy across Africa, with a particular focus on Ethiopia, Ghana, and Rwanda.

METHODS

Data on household and ambient air pollution were from WHO Global Health Observatory, and data on morbidity and mortality were from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated economic output lost due to air pollution-related disease by country, with use of labour income per worker, adjusted by the probability that a person (of a given age) was working. Losses were expressed in 2019 international dollars and as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). We also quantified the contribution of particulate matter (PM)_2·5 pollution to intelligence quotient (IQ) loss in children younger than 10 years, with use of an exposure-response coefficient based on previously published data.

FINDINGS

Air pollution was responsible for 1·1 million deaths across Africa in 2019. Household air pollution accounted for 697 000 deaths and ambient air pollution for 394 000. Ambient air pollution-related deaths increased from 361 000 in 2015, to 383 000 in 2019, with the greatest increases in the most highly developed countries. The majority of deaths due to ambient air pollution are caused by non-communicable diseases. The loss in economic output in 2019 due to air pollution-related morbidity and mortality was $3·02 billion in Ethiopia (1·16% of GDP), $1·63 billion in Ghana (0·95% of GDP), and $349 million in Rwanda (1·19% of GDP). PM_2·5 pollution was estimated to be responsible for 1·96 billion lost IQ points in African children in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Ambient air pollution is increasing across Africa. In the absence of deliberate intervention, it will increase morbidity and mortality, diminish economic productivity, impair human capital formation, and undercut development. Because most African countries are still early in development, they have opportunities to transition rapidly to wind and solar energy, avoiding a reliance on fossil fuel-based economies and minimising pollution.

FUNDING

UN Environment Programme.

HCOOH in the remote atmosphere: Constraints from Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) airborne observations

Formic acid (HCOOH) is an important component of atmospheric acidity but its budget is poorly understood, with prior observations implying substantial missing sources. Here we combine pole-to-pole airborne observations from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) with chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM) and back trajectory analyses to provide the first global in-situ characterization of HCOOH in the remote atmosphere. ATom reveals sub-100 ppt HCOOH concentrations over most of the remote oceans, punctuated by large enhancements associated with continental outflow. Enhancements correlate with known combustion tracers and trajectory-based fire influences. The GEOS-Chem model underpredicts these in-plume HCOOH enhancements, but elsewhere we find no broad indication of a missing HCOOH source in the background free troposphere. We conclude that missing non-fire HCOOH precursors inferred previously are predominantly short-lived. We find indications of a wet scavenging underestimate in the model consistent with a positive HCOOH bias in the tropical upper troposphere. Observations reveal episodic evidence of ocean HCOOH uptake, which is well-captured by GEOS-Chem; however, despite its strong seawater undersaturation HCOOH is not consistently depleted in the remote marine boundary layer. Over fifty fire and mixed plumes were intercepted during ATom with widely varying transit times and source regions. HCOOH:CO normalized excess mixing ratios in these plumes range from 3.4 to >50 ppt/ppb CO and are often over an order of magnitude higher than expected primary emission ratios. HCOOH is thus a major reactive organic carbon reservoir in the aged plumes sampled during ATom, implying important missing pathways for in-plume HCOOH production.

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM_2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM_2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74-1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM_2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52-0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32-0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28-0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

Impacts of Chemical Degradation on the Global Budget of Atmospheric Levoglucosan and Its Use As a Biomass Burning Tracer

Levoglucosan has been widely used to quantitatively assess biomass burning's contribution to ambient aerosols, but previous such assessments have not accounted for levoglucosan's degradation in the atmosphere. We develop the first global simulation of atmospheric levoglucosan, explicitly accounting for its chemical degradation, to evaluate the impacts on levoglucosan's use in quantitative aerosol source apportionment. Levoglucosan is emitted into the atmosphere from the burning of plant matter in open fires (1.7 Tg yr^-1) and as biofuels (2.1 Tg yr^-1). Sinks of atmospheric levoglucosan include aqueous-phase oxidation (2.9 Tg yr^-1), heterogeneous oxidation (0.16 Tg yr^-1), gas-phase oxidation (1.4 × 10^-4 Tg yr^-1), and dry and wet deposition (0.27 and 0.43 Tg yr ^-1). The global atmospheric burden of levoglucosan is 19 Gg with a lifetime of 1.8 days. Observations show a sharp decline in levoglucosan's concentrations and its relative abundance to organic carbon aerosol (OC) and particulate K⁺ from near-source to remote sites. We show that such features can only be reproduced when levoglucosan's chemical degradation is included in the model. Using model results, we develop statistical parametrizations to account for the atmospheric degradation in levoglucosan measurements, improving their use for quantitative aerosol source apportionment.

Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0

The Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) system is a high-resolution (0.25°) global constituent prediction system from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). GEOS-CF offers a new tool for atmospheric chemistry research, with the goal to supplement NASA's broad range of space-based and in-situ observations. GEOS-CF expands on the GEOS weather and aerosol modeling system by introducing the GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide hindcasts and 5-days forecasts of atmospheric constituents including ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The chemistry module integrated in GEOS-CF is identical to the offline GEOS-Chem model and readily benefits from the innovations provided by the GEOS-Chem community. Evaluation of GEOS-CF against satellite, ozonesonde and surface observations for years 2018-2019 show realistic simulated concentrations of O3, NO2, and CO, with normalized mean biases of -0.1 to 0.3, normalized root mean square errors between 0.1-0.4, and correlations between 0.3-0.8. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the successful representation of air pollutants in many regions of the world and during all seasons, yet also highlight current limitations, such as a global high bias in SO2 and an overprediction of summertime O3 over the Southeast United States. GEOS-CF v1.0 generally overestimates aerosols by 20%-50% due to known issues in GEOS-Chem v12.0.1 that have been addressed in later versions. The 5-days forecasts have skill scores comparable to the 1-day hindcast. Model skills can be improved significantly by applying a bias-correction to the surface model output using a machine-learning approach.

Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem

The burning of fossil fuels - especially coal, petrol, and diesel - is a major source of airborne fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and a key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease. Previous risk assessments have examined the health response to total PM_2.5, not just PM_2.5 from fossil fuel combustion, and have used a concentration-response function with limited support from the literature and data at both high and low concentrations. This assessment examines mortality associated with PM_2.5 from only fossil fuel combustion, making use of a recent meta-analysis of newer studies with a wider range of exposure. We also estimated mortality due to lower respiratory infections (LRI) among children under the age of five in the Americas and Europe, regions for which we have reliable data on the relative risk of this health outcome from PM_2.5 exposure. We used the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate global exposure levels to fossil-fuel related PM_2.5 in 2012. Relative risks of mortality were modeled using functions that link long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and mortality, incorporating nonlinearity in the concentration response. We estimate a global total of 10.2 (95% CI: -47.1 to 17.0) million premature deaths annually attributable to the fossil-fuel component of PM_2.5. The greatest mortality impact is estimated over regions with substantial fossil fuel related PM_2.5, notably China (3.9 million), India (2.5 million) and parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia. The estimate for China predates substantial decline in fossil fuel emissions and decreases to 2.4 million premature deaths due to 43.7% reduction in fossil fuel PM_2.5 from 2012 to 2018 bringing the global total to 8.7 (95% CI: -1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths. We also estimated excess annual deaths due to LRI in children (0-4 years old) of 876 in North America, 747 in South America, and 605 in Europe. This study demonstrates that the fossil fuel component of PM_2.5 contributes a large mortality burden. The steeper concentration-response function slope at lower concentrations leads to larger estimates than previously found in Europe and North America, and the slower drop-off in slope at higher concentrations results in larger estimates in Asia. Fossil fuel combustion can be more readily controlled than other sources and precursors of PM_2.5 such as dust or wildfire smoke, so this is a clear message to policymakers and stakeholders to further incentivize a shift to clean sources of energy.

Reductions in NO2 burden over north equatorial Africa from decline in biomass burning in spite of growing fossil fuel use, 2005 to 2017

Socioeconomic development in low- and middle-income countries has been accompanied by increased emissions of air pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides [NO_x: nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) + nitric oxide (NO)], which affect human health. In sub-Saharan Africa, fossil fuel combustion has nearly doubled since 2000. At the same time, landscape biomass burning-another important NO_x source-has declined in north equatorial Africa, attributed to changes in climate and anthropogenic fire management. Here, we use satellite observations of tropospheric NO₂ vertical column densities (VCDs) and burned area to identify NO₂ trends and drivers over Africa. Across the northern ecosystems where biomass burning occurs-home to hundreds of millions of people-mean annual tropospheric NO₂ VCDs decreased by 4.5% from 2005 through 2017 during the dry season of November through February. Reductions in burned area explained the majority of variation in NO₂ VCDs, though changes in fossil fuel emissions also explained some variation. Over Africa's biomass burning regions, raising mean GDP density (USD⋅km^-2) above its lowest levels is associated with lower NO₂ VCDs during the dry season, suggesting that economic development mitigates net NO₂ emissions during these highly polluted months. In contrast to the traditional notion that socioeconomic development increases air pollutant concentrations in low- and middle-income nations, our results suggest that countries in Africa's northern biomass-burning region are following a different pathway during the fire season, resulting in potential air quality benefits. However, these benefits may be lost with increasing fossil fuel use and are absent during the rainy season.

Rapid conversion of isoprene photooxidation products in terrestrial plants

Isoprene is emitted from the biosphere into the atmosphere, and may strengthen the defense mechanisms of plants against oxidative and thermal stress. Once in the atmosphere, isoprene is rapidly oxidized, either to isoprene-hydroxy-hydroperoxides (ISOPOOH) at low levels of nitrogen oxides, or to methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein at high levels. Here we combine uptake rates and deposition velocities that we obtained in laboratory experiments with observations in natural forests to show that 1,2-ISOPOOH deposits rapidly into poplar leaves. There, it is converted first to cytotoxic MVK and then most probably through alkenal/ one oxidoreductase (AOR) to less toxic methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). This detoxification process is potentially significant globally because AOR enzymes are ubiquitous in terrestrial plants. Our simulations with a global chemistry-transport model suggest that around 6.5 Tg yr- of MEK are re-emitted to the atmosphere. This is the single largest MEK source presently known, and recycles 1.5% of the original isoprene flux. Eddy covariance flux measurements of isoprene and MEK over different forest ecosystems confirm that MEK emissions can reach 1-2% those of isoprene. We suggest that detoxification processes in plants are one of the most important sources of oxidized volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere.

Air Pollution and Climate Forcing of the Charcoal Industry in Africa

The demand for charcoal in Africa is growing rapidly, driven by urbanization and lack of access to electricity. Charcoal production and use, including plastic burning to initiate combustion, release large quantities of trace gases and particles that impact air quality and climate. Here, we develop an inventory of current (2014) and future (2030) emissions from the charcoal supply chain in Africa that we implement in the GEOS-Chem model to quantify the contribution of charcoal to surface concentrations of PM_2.5 and ozone and direct radiative forcing due to aerosols and ozone. We estimate that the charcoal industry in 2014 required 140-460 Tg of biomass and 260 tonnes of plastic and that industry emissions could double by 2030, so that methane emissions from the charcoal industry could outcompete those from open fires by 2025. In 2014, the largest enhancements in PM_2.5 (0.5-1.4 μg m^-3) and ozone (0.4-0.7 ppbv) occur around the densely populated cities in East and West Africa. Cooling due to aerosols (-100 to -300 mW m^-2) is concentrated over dense cities, whereas warming due to ozone is widespread, peaking at 4.2 mW m^-2 over the Atlantic Ocean. These effects will worsen with ongoing dependence on this energy source, spurred by rapid urbanization and absence of viable cleaner alternatives.

How will air quality effects on human health, crops and ecosystems change in the future?

Future air quality will be driven by changes in air pollutant emissions, but also changes in climate. Here, we review the recent literature on future air quality scenarios and projected changes in effects on human health, crops and ecosystems. While there is overlap in the scenarios and models used for future projections of air quality and climate effects on human health and crops, similar efforts have not been widely conducted for ecosystems. Few studies have conducted joint assessments across more than one sector. Improvements in future air quality effects on human health are seen in emission reduction scenarios that are more ambitious than current legislation. Larger impacts result from changing particulate matter (PM) abundances than ozone burdens. Future global health burdens are dominated by changes in the Asian region. Expected future reductions in ozone outside of Asia will allow for increased crop production. Reductions in PM, although associated with much higher uncertainty, could offset some of this benefit. The responses of ecosystems to air pollution and climate change are long-term, complex, and interactive, and vary widely across biomes and over space and time. Air quality and climate policy should be linked or at least considered holistically, and managed as a multi-media problem. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Quantification of Atmospheric Ammonia Concentrations: A Review of Its Measurement and Modeling

Ammonia (NH3), the most prevalent alkaline gas in the atmosphere, plays a significant role in PM2.5 formation, atmospheric chemistry, and new particle formation. This paper reviews quantification of [NH3] through measurements, satellite-remote-sensing, and modeling reported in over 500 publications towards synthesizing the current knowledge of [NH3], focusing on spatiotemporal variations, controlling processes, and quantification issues. Most measurements are through regional passive sampler networks. [NH3] hotspots are typically over agricultural regions, such as the Midwest US and the North China Plain, with elevated concentrations reaching monthly averages of 20 and 74 ppbv, respectively. Topographical effects dramatically increase [NH3] over the Indo-Gangetic Plains, North India and San Joaquin Valley, US. Measurements are sparse over oceans, where [NH3] ≈ a few tens of pptv, variations of which can affect aerosol formation. Satellite remote-sensing (AIRS, CrIS, IASI, TANSO-FTS, TES) provides global [NH3] quantification in the column and at the surface since 2002. Modeling is crucial for improving understanding of NH3 chemistry and transport, its spatiotemporal variations, source apportionment, exploring physicochemical mechanisms, and predicting future scenarios. GEOS-Chem (global) and FRAME (UK) models are commonly applied for this. A synergistic approach of measurements↔satellite-inference↔modeling is needed towards improved understanding of atmospheric ammonia, which is of concern from the standpoint of human health and the ecosystem.

Revisiting particle dry deposition and its role in radiative effect estimates

Dry deposition is a key sink of atmospheric particles, which impact human and ecosystem health, and the radiative balance of the planet. However, the deposition parameterizations used in climate and air-quality models are poorly constrained by observations. Dry deposition of submicron particles is the largest uncertainty in aerosol indirect radiative forcing. Our particle flux observations indicate that dry deposition velocities are an order of magnitude lower than models suggest. Our updated, observation-driven parameterizations should reduce uncertainty in modeled dry deposition. The scheme increases modeled accumulation mode aerosol number concentrations, and enhances the combined natural and anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect by −0.63 W m⁻², similar in magnitude to the total aerosol indirect forcing in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

Wet and dry deposition remove aerosols from the atmosphere, and these processes control aerosol lifetime and thus impact climate and air quality. Dry deposition is a significant source of aerosol uncertainty in global chemical transport and climate models. Dry deposition parameterizations in most global models were developed when few particle deposition measurements were available. However, new measurement techniques have enabled more size-resolved particle flux observations. We combined literature measurements with data that we collected over a grassland in Oklahoma and a pine forest in Colorado to develop a dry deposition parameterization. We find that relative to observations, previous parameterizations overestimated deposition of the accumulation and Aitken mode particles, and underestimated in the coarse mode. These systematic differences in observed and modeled accumulation mode particle deposition velocities are as large as an order of magnitude over terrestrial ecosystems. As accumulation mode particles form most of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the indirect radiative effect, this model-measurement discrepancy in dry deposition alters modeled CCN and radiative forcing. We present a revised observationally driven parameterization for regional and global aerosol models. Using this revised dry deposition scheme in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemical transport model, we find that global surface accumulation-mode number concentrations increase by 62% and enhance the global combined anthropogenic and natural aerosol indirect effect by −0.63 W m⁻². Our observationally constrained approach should reduce the uncertainty of particle dry deposition in global chemical transport models.

Global Importance of Hydroxymethanesulfonate in Ambient Particulate Matter: Implications for Air Quality

Sulfur compounds are an important constituent of particulate matter, with impacts on climate and public health. While most sulfur observed in particulate matter has been assumed to be sulfate, laboratory experiments reveal that hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS), an adduct formed by aqueous phase chemical reaction of dissolved HCHO and SO2, may be easily misinterpreted in measurements as sulfate. Here we present observational and modeling evidence for a ubiquitous global presence of HMS. We find that filter samples collected in Shijiazhuang, China, and examined with ion chromatography within 9 days show as much as 7.6 μg m-3 of HMS, while samples from Singapore examined 9-18 months after collection reveal ~0.6 μg m-3 of HMS. The Shijiazhuang samples show only minor traces of HMS 4 months later, suggesting that HMS had decomposed over time during sample storage. In contrast, the Singapore samples do not clearly show a decline in HMS concentration over 2 months of monitoring. Measurements from over 150 sites, primarily derived from the IMPROVE network across the United States, suggest the ubiquitous presence of HMS in at least trace amounts as much as 60 days after collection. The degree of possible HMS decomposition in the IMPROVE observations is unknown. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we estimate that HMS may account for 10% of global particulate sulfur in continental surface air and over 25% in many polluted regions. Our results suggest that reducing emissions of HCHO and other volatile organic compounds may have a co-benefit of decreasing particulate sulfur.

Constraining remote oxidation capacity with ATom observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half of the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July-August 2016 and January-February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NO y concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias, with the exception of wintertime NO y . The severe model overestimate of NO y during this period may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on sea-salt aerosols. Large uncertainties in these processes require further study to improve simulated NO y partitioning and removal in the troposphere, but preliminary tests suggest that their overall impact could marginally reduce the model bias in tropospheric OH. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by a comprehensive simulation of both biotic and abiotic ocean sources of VOCs. Additional sources of VOC reactivity in this region are difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOCs, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in both model acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean sources of VOCs in the model increases cOHRmod by 3% to 9% and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde, particularly in winter, but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require 100 Tg yr-1 of a long-lived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land.

Using Low-Cost Measurement Systems to Investigate Air Quality: A Case Study in Palapye, Botswana

Exposure to particulate air pollution is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. In developing countries, the combustion of solid fuels is widely used as a source of energy, and this process can produce exposure to harmful levels of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5). However, as countries develop, solid fuel may be replaced by centralized coal combustion, and vehicles burning diesel and gasoline may become common, changing the concentration and composition of PM2.5, which ultimately changes the population health effects. Therefore, there is a continuous need for in-situ monitoring of air pollution in developing nations, both to estimate human exposure and to monitor changes in air quality. In this study, we present measurements from a 5-week field experiment in Palapye, Botswana. We used a low-cost, highly portable instrument package to measure surface-based aerosol optical depth (AOD), real-time surface PM2.5 concentrations using a third-party optical sensor, and time-integrated PM2.5 concentration and composition by collecting PM2.5 onto Teflon filters. Furthermore, we employed other low-cost measurements of real-time black carbon and time-integrated ammonia to help interpret the observed PM2.5 composition and concentration information during the field experiment. We found that the average PM2.5 concentration (9.5 µg∙m−3) was below the World Health Organization (WHO) annual limit, and this concentration closely agrees with estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report estimates for this region. Sulfate aerosol and carbonaceous aerosol, likely from coal combustion and biomass burning, respectively, were the main contributors to PM2.5 by mass (33% and 27% of total PM2.5 mass, respectively). While these observed concentrations were on average below WHO guidelines, we found that the measurement site experienced higher concentrations of aerosol during first half our measurement period (14.5 µg∙m−3), which is classified as “moderately unhealthy” according to the WHO standard.

Air Quality and Health Impact of Future Fossil Fuel Use for Electricity Generation and Transport in Africa

Africa has ambitious plans to address energy deficits and sustain economic growth with fossil fueled power plants. The continent is also experiencing faster population growth than anywhere else in the world that will lead to proliferation of vehicles. Here, we estimate air pollutant emissions in Africa from future (2030) electricity generation and transport. We find that annual emissions of two precursors of fine particles (PM_2.5) hazardous to health, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), approximately double by 2030 relative to 2012, increasing from 2.5 to 5.5 Tg SO₂ and 1.5 to 2.8 Tg NO_x. We embed these emissions in the GEOS-Chem model nested over the African continent to simulate ambient concentrations of PM_2.5 and determine the burden of disease (excess deaths) attributable to exposure to future fossil fuel use. We calculate 48000 avoidable deaths in 2030 (95% confidence interval: 6000-88000), mostly in South Africa (10400), Nigeria (7500), and Malawi (2400), with 3-times higher mortality rates from power plants than transport. Sensitivity of the burden of disease to either population growth or air quality varies regionally and suggests that emission mitigation strategies would be most effective in Southern Africa, whereas population growth is the main driver everywhere else.

Updated Emission Factors from Diffuse Combustion Sources in Sub-Saharan Africa and Their Effect on Regional Emission Estimates

Diffuse emission sources outside of kitchen areas are poorly understood, and measurements of their emission factors (EFs) are sparse for regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Thirty-one in-field emission measurements were taken in northern Ghana from combustion sources common to rural regions worldwide. Sources sampled included commercial cooking, trash burning, kerosene lanterns, and diesel generators. EFs were calculated for carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), as well as carbonaceous particulate matter, specifically elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). EC and OC emissions were measured from kerosene lighting events (EF_EC = 25.1 g/kg-fuel SD = 25.7, EF_OC = 9.5 g/kg-fuel SD = 10.0). OC emissions from trash burning events were large and highly variable (EF_OC = 38.9 g/kg-fuel SD = 30.5). Combining our results with other recent in-field emission factors for rural Ghana, we explored updated emission estimates for Ghana using a region specific emissions inventory. Large differences are calculated for all updated source emissions, showing a 96% increase in OC and 78% decrease in EC compared to prior estimates for Ghana's emissions. Differences for carbon monoxide were small when averaged across all updated source types (-1%), though the household wood use and trash burning categories individually show large differences.

Proliferation of low-cost sensors. What prospects for air pollution epidemiologic research in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Addressing the worsening urban air quality situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is proving increasingly difficult owing to paucity of data on air pollution levels and also, lack of local evidence on the magnitude of the associated health effects. There is therefore the urgent need to expand air quality monitoring (AQM) networks in SSA to enable the conduct of high quality epidemiologic studies to help inform policies aimed at addressing air pollution and the associated health effects. In this commentary, I explore the prospects that the proliferation of low-cost sensors in recent times holds for air pollution epidemiologic research in SSA. This commentary is timely because most SSA governments do not see investments in air pollution control that requires assembling a network of sophisticated and prohibitively expensive instrumentation for AQM as necessary for improving and protecting public health. I conclude that, in a region that is bereft of air pollution data, the growing influx of low-cost sensors represents an excellent opportunity for bridging the data gap to inform air pollution control policies and regulations for public health protection. However, it is essential that only the most promising sensor technologies that performs creditably well in the harsh environmental conditions of the region are promoted.

Improving present day and future estimates of anthropogenic sectoral emissions and the resulting air quality impacts in Africa

The African continent is undergoing immense social and economic change, particularly regarding population growth and urbanization, where the urban population in Africa is anticipated to increase by a factor of 3 over the next 40 years. To understand the potential health impacts from this demographical shift and design efficient emission mitigation strategies, we used improved Africa-specific emissions that account for inefficient combustion sources for a number of sectors such as transportation, household energy generation, waste burning, and home heating and cooking. When these underrepresented emissions sources are combined with the current estimates of emissions in Africa, ambient particulate matter concentrations from present-day anthropogenic activity contribute to 13 210 annual premature deaths, with the largest contributions (38%) coming from residential emissions. By scaling both the population and the emissions for projected national-scale levels of growth, the predicted health impact grows to approximately 78 986 annual premature deaths by 2030 with 45% now resulting from emissions related to energy combustion. In order to mitigate this resulting increase in premature deaths, three scenarios have been developed which reduce sector-specific future emissions based on prior targets for technological improvements and emission controls in transportation, energy production and residential activities. These targeted potential mitigation strategies can avoid up to 37% of the estimated annual premature deaths by 2030 with the largest opportunity being a reduction of 10 868 annual deaths from switching half of the energy generation in South Africa to renewable technologies.