Revealing Environmental Inequality Hidden in China's Inter-regional Trade

Coping with the tale of natural resources and environmental inequality: an application of the machine learning tools

With the rising momentum according to the environmentalist voices seeking climate justice for more equity and the importance of encouraging environmental justice mechanisms and tools, in this perspective, the objective of this study is to analyze in depth the substantial role of natural resources abundance in the environmental inequality issue. For this purpose, this study adopted the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), LightGBM, Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), Hybrid hybrid upper confidence bound-long short-term memory-Genetic Algorithm (UCB-LSTM-GA), and the Shapley Additive Explanation (SAE) machine learning algorithms in the context of 21 emerging economies spanning the years 2001 to 2019. The empirical results reveal that natural resource abundance, foreign trade, and foreign direct investment inflows contribute all to higher levels of environmental inequality. However, higher levels of per capita income, gross fixed capital formation, and institutional quality contribute to lower levels of environmental inequality. Addressing climate justice holistically through an integrated supranational vision is significant since every step taken toward eradicating environmental racism matters.

Promoting the Achievement of Carbon Neutrality Targets: Systematic Review of Research Dimensions and Measure Methods on Carbon Equity in China

Carbon equity is the balance between carbon reduction responsibilities and development rights. The review of carbon equity in China can help it achieve carbon neutrality targets and provide valuable insights to other emerging countries. This study aimed to systematically sort, classify, compare, and prospect the research dimensions and measure methods for carbon equity. The research dimensions were first classified into intergenerational, regional, trade, and income carbon equity by literature analysis. Intergenerational carbon equity explores the balance of carbon emission rights among generations using integrated assessment models (IAM). Regional carbon equity analyzes the socioeconomic effect of regional carbon emission rights allocation by IAM or regional differences under a specific allocation assumption by the Theil index. Trade carbon equity studies the relationship between carbon emissions and economic benefit transfer embodied in inter-regional trade, which is more suitable for calculating by methods with comparable results, such as the optimized regional environmental inequality index. Income carbon equity investigates the carbon footprint heterogeneity among income groups by the carbon Gini coefficient. This paper further discusses potential research directions for each dimension. Notably, all research dimensions did not consider promoted strategies for carbon equity, which should be a priority for future studies.

Unexpected PM2.5-related emissions and accompanying environmental-economic inequalities driven by "clean" tertiary industry in China

The tertiary industry, led by service sectors, usually have "clean" production processes and thus is ignored by current PM2.5 pollution mitigation strategies in China. Actually, the tertiary industry heavily relies on the supplies from its upstream industries, resulting in pollutant emissions and economic benefits transferring among different regions. With the application of the multiregional input-output (MRIO) model, our study explores the emission contribution from the tertiary industry's consumption activities in China and analyses the accompanying emission-economy relationship. We find that the production process of tertiary industry (with the sector Transportation excluded) contributes only ∼1 % of China's PM2.5-related emissions in 2017. However, its consumption-based emission contributions could increase to 11 %-17 %, among which >95 % are indirectly contributed. More than 40 % of tertiary industry consumption-based emissions, accompanied by 25 % of the consumption-based value added, are transferred via interprovincial trade. The proportion of transferred emissions even exceeds 50 % for the top 10 importers. The spatial pattern of value-added flows is nearly opposite to that of emission flows. Our results also reveal that among the 30 provinces and 870 interprovincial trading pairs, 6 provinces are experiencing environmental-economic win, 7 provinces are experiencing environmental-economic loss, and in detail 326 trading pairs are experiencing environmental-economic win or loss. To reduce the unexpected emissions and inequalities embodied in seemingly "clean" industries, consumption activities should be considered and strengthened in China's new-stage environmental policies.

Analysis of the dynamics of common industrial solid waste based on input-output: A case study of Shanghai international metropolis in China

Rapid economic development inevitably leads to the discharge of a large amount of common industrial solid waste (CISW), which not only pollutes the environment but also restricts economic development in turn. In this study, a dynamic common industrial solid waste (DCISW) model is developed to analyze the retrospectively CISW development in Shanghai from 2000 to 2017 and simulate prospectively multi-perspective emission reduction measures. Specifically, the dynamic linkages between CISW and socio-economics are established at both the systematic and sectoral levels through input-output analysis, ecological network analysis, and related socio-economic indicators. Abatement measure simulations are conducted using RAS and other methods. The findings reveal that the growth of CISW in Shanghai is closely related to its fast-growing economy. The Others sector (OS) receives the most CISW from other sectors, while the Mining industry (MI) sends the most CISW to others. From production-based, consumption-based, and income-based perspectives, Chemical Products (CP) consistently remain the largest contributors. For the proposed waste generation intensity (WGI) indicator, the Mining industry (MI) is regarded as the main sector in all three perspectives. Moreover, the MI consistently emerges as the key sector of the system. CISW simulations indicate that improving the MI emission technology and increasing the MI output value will be top priorities for CISW emission reduction in Shanghai. This study is expected to provide scientific support to address the CISW problem in Shanghai and other similar fast-growing metropolises.

Using fs/QCA to explore the influencing factors of urban green infrastructure development and its combinational drivers: the case of the Yangtze River Delta region of China

High levels of urban green infrastructure (UGI) development can help mitigate the climate, biodiversity, and habitat crises faced by cities and support the achievement of sustainable urban development. Based on the relevant data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region obtained from 2011 to 2020, this study measured the development level of natural and geographic conditions, economic development, urban construction, social and cultural development, and eco-environment quality and urban green infrastructure (UGI); evaluated the development trend of UGI in the region during the 12th Five-Year Plan and 13th Five-Year Plan by using entropy TOPSIS; and used fs/QCA to explain the high-level development path of each city toward the achievement of a green infrastructure. The results showed that (1) the development level of UGI in the Yangtze River Delta region decreases from southeast to northwest, and gradually decreases from Shanghai, Hangzhou, and other central cities. (2) There were several different configurations of high levels and non-high levels of UGI development drivers across regions, confirming the existence of multiple causality and asymmetry indices in the drivers of UGI. (3) During the "12th Five-Year Plan" and the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the conditions needed to achieve a high level of UGI gradually became stricter, expanding from nature-social culture and urban construction-eco-environmental drivers to nature-urban construction, nature-social culture-eco-environmental, urban construction-economy-social culture-eco-environmental drivers. Research findings can provide greater guidance and implications for future sustainable urban development.

Impact of global value chain embedding on decoupling between China's CO2 emissions and economic growth: Based on Tapio decoupling and structural decomposition

With the increasing fragmentation of global production, China's participation in cross-border production sharing activities has had a considerable impact on the nation's economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study applied the Tapio model to quantitatively evaluate the decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China, dividing the decoupling index based on global value chains (GVCs) and domestic production within the IO framework, and introducing structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the GVC-related factors to the decoupling. The relevant research results are fourfold. (1) From 2000 to 2018, China achieved weak decoupling between emissions and economic growth. Domestic and GVC effects each had a negative impact on the decoupling; however, after 2008, the GVC effect had a promotional effect and the negative domestic effect declined. (2) Emission intensity was the primary factor promoting decoupling through domestic and GVC effects, while the scale of final demand was the main hindrance. And the negative effects of GVC-related factors declined following the economic crisis. (3) The regional and sectoral structures of GVC production (58.44 % and 56.08 %) had promotional roles in the changes in GVC effects, while GVC production linkages (-20.19 %) had hindering effects. Various factors contributed to the hindering effect from the 2008 to 2011 index, whereas from the 2011 to 2018 index, all factors contributed to the promotional effect. (4) From 2000 to 2018, the average annual global value chain effect promoted the low-carbon development of China's labor-intensive and knowledge-based manufacturing. In order for GVCs to play a positive role in decoupling, China should promote trade facilitation through international platforms, support the advancement of production technology, reasonably guide China's industries to participate in the regional and industrial links of GVCs, and develop strategic emerging industries.

Direct and indirect consumption activities drive distinct urban-rural inequalities in air pollution-related mortality in China

Household consumption in China is associated with substantial PM2.5 pollution, through activities directly (i.e., fuel use) and/or indirectly (i.e., consumption of goods and services) causing pollutant emissions. Urban and rural households exhibit different consumption preferences and living areas, thus their contributions to and suffering from air pollution could differ. Assessing this contrast is crucial for comprehending the environmental impacts of the nation's ongoing urbanization process. Here we quantify Chinese urban and rural households' contributions to ambient PM2.5 pollution and the health risks they suffer from, by integrating economic, atmospheric, and health models and/or datasets. The national premature deaths related to long-term exposure to PM2.5 pollution contributed by total household consumption are estimated to be 1.1 million cases in 2015, among which 56% are urban households and 44% are rural households. For pollution contributed indirectly, urban households, especially in developed provinces, tend to bear lower mortality risks compared with the portions of deaths or pollution they contribute. The opposite results are true for direct pollution. With China's rapid urbanization process, without adequate reduction in emission intensity, the increased indirect pollution-associated premature deaths could largely offset that avoided by reduced direct pollution, and the indirect pollution-associated urban-rural inequalities might become severer. Developing pollution mitigation strategies from both production and consumption sides could help with reducing pollution-related mortality and associated urban-rural inequality.

Responsibility-sharing and compensation scheme of transboundary water pollution embodied in China's inter-provincial trade: a perspective from economic value capturing

Transboundary water pollution induced by inter-regional trade is a complex and challenging issue due to the multiple jurisdictions involved. This study combined water pollution discharge inventory, multi-regional input-output analysis, discharge responsibility-sharing, and ecological compensation model to advance the collaborative control of water pollution embodied in China's inter-provincial trade. Over a fifth of China's water pollution discharges in 2017, equivalent to 1376 Kt, were a result of inter-provincial trade, which primarily flowed from wealthier coastal provinces to less developed ones. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates a mismatch between economic gains and environmental costs. In particular, Jiangxi and Guangxi bear the greatest environmental impact (64 and 58 Kt, respectively) while only receiving meager economic returns (131 and 80 billion Yuan). The economic benefit shared responsibility results for the great majority of provinces fell between production- and consumption-based discharges, and this compromise-based allocation of responsibility is more likely to gain acceptance across various regions. Provinces such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Beijing necessitate the highest compensation volumes to others, with 31 Kt, 25 Kt, and 20 Kt, respectively, while provinces including Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Ningxia require the largest inflows of compensation, totaling 26 Kt, 23 Kt, and 18 Kt, respectively. The compensation outcomes ensure that less developed regions, bearing a greater pollution burden, receive compensation from more developed regions with lower pollution burdens. The compensation values aligned with compensation volumes, with a few exceptions driven by variations in shadow prices of water pollution. Our study sheds light on the inter-provincial water pollution burdens and benefits and provides a quantitative basis for optimizing the responsibility-sharing and compensation strategies in China, thereby promoting regional cooperation on water pollution control.

Examining inequities in species loss due to land use in China from an interregional trade perspective

The escalating impact of land use pressures indicates we've exceeded the proposed safe planetary boundary. Economic shifts and increased trade drive China's demand for agricultural and forestry products, land-use changes, and subsequent biodiversity damage often occur far from where they are consumed. Given many species in China are endemic or endangered, neglecting these interconnected economic trends threatens its biodiversity conservation targets. Here, we first quantify species loss due to six land use types embodied in the life cycle at the Chinese sub-national level. Then, a Chinese high-resolution multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model was used to link threatened species to key industrial sectors in the supply chain, tracking the spatiotemporal patterns of land use species loss embodied in Chinese trade from 2007 to 2017. Our results reveal a 6% increase in aggregated species loss in China during the study period. This subtle change in species loss footprints in recent years is partially due to increases in consumption levels being offset by reductions in species loss intensity, though drivers vary by region. Notably, the Northwest and Southwest, known for their high species richness, suffer the greatest inequalities in species loss. The domestic species loss transfer most apparent in the outsourcing from the Eastern Coast to the Southwest. The Southwest registered the highest territory-based species loss, particularly for amphibians, while the highest impacts in the supply chain are associated with Forestry, logging, and related activities. Our analysis underscores the need for enhanced provincial dialogue to systematically value and monitor biodiversity, a key natural capital, and encourage its conservation. Our study effectively monitors the consumption-based species losses across China, which can further improve knowledge and dialogue on ecological challenges associated with trade.

Emissions leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade brings unexpected air quality and health benefits

Inter-provincial trade can bring "emission leakage", and consequently influence the air quality and public health. However, there has been a lack of systematic research on air pollution and public health related to emission leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade of China. Here, we systematically evaluated for the first time the influence of emission leakage on national air pollution and related premature deaths in 2012 of China. Unexpected opposite influences of emission leakage on emission and air quality/public health were discovered. Emission leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade in 2012 of China led to an increase of 1.4 % to 4.8 % in national air pollutant emissions, but a decrease of 1.5 % (-0.8 μg·m-3) in population-weighted concentration of PM2.5, while avoiding 1.1 % (-1.4 × 104 people) of premature deaths. Therefore, to reveal the intrinsic mechanism of this opposite influences, we proposed two coefficients, the Concentration per unit primary PM2.5 emission (CPE, unit: μg·m-3/t) and the Death per unit primary PM2.5 emission (DPE, unit: people/t), to characterize the response of air quality and health to emission leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade. Statistical analysis indicated that both the above coefficients showed significant negative correlation (P < 0.05) with provincial PM2.5 emissions changes. The findings offer a means of adjustment and its related evaluation parameters for the emission transfer caused by inter-provincial trade, thereby contributing to further improvement environmental and health benefits through inter-provincial trade.

Collaborative governance of trade-driven transboundary air pollution in China: A responsibility-based fair compensation mechanism

Transboundary air pollution poses a significant challenge in China, and collaborative governance presents a promising approach to tackle this problem. However, such approach is rarely implemented due to the influence of inter-regional trade dynamics. To address this issue, a comprehensive, responsibility-based fair compensation mechanism was established in the present study. The aim of the mechanism is to bridge the existing gap through the integrated utilization of air pollutant emission inventories, multi-regional input-output analysis, emission responsibility allocation, and an ecological compensation model. In 2017, approximately 50% of China's air pollutant emissions were embedded in inter-provincial trade, primarily originating from wealthier provinces and directed towards less-developed regions with higher pollution intensity. There exists a significant imbalance between the inter-provincial transfers of air pollution and economic benefits, owing to which Inner Mongolia and Liaoning have suffered from serious environmental inequity brought about by trade. The allocation of responsibility for trade-related emissions between producers and consumers is determined by the economic surplus they gain from trade. Such approach results in an intermediate outcome that falls between production-based and consumption-based emissions for the majority of provinces. The scheme highlights the import-related share of responsibility for economically developed provinces and the export-related share for less-developed, pollution-intensive provinces, which can primarily be attributed due to their differences in value chain specialization. The inter-provincial compensation volumes for trade-related emissions are determined based on the economically equitable emission responsibility sharing scheme. More developed provinces, characterized by industrial structures focused on low-pollution, high-value-added products, primarily function as compensation providers. In contrast, less-developed provinces with higher pollution intensity seek compensation from these more affluent regions. The present findings can offer a quantitative basis for the ecological compensation and collaborative control mechanism of trade-driven transboundary air pollution in China.

Factors Driving China's Carbon Emissions after the COVID-19 Outbreak

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may exert profound impacts on China's carbon emissions via structural changes. Due to a lack of data, previous studies have focused on quantifying the changes in carbon emissions but have failed to identify structural changes in the determinants of carbon emissions. Here, we use China's latest input-output table and apply structural decomposition analyses to understand the dynamic changes in the determinants of carbon emissions from 2012 to 2020, specifically the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions. We find that final demand per capita contributed to emissions growth at a slower pace, but production structure drove a greater carbon emissions increase than before the pandemic. Export-led emissions growth rebounded, and investment-led emissions were more concentrated in the construction sector. The carbon intensity of several heavy industries increased, e.g., the nonmetallic products sector, the metal products sector, and the petroleum, coking, and nuclear fuel sector. In addition, lower production efficiency and increased reliance on carbon-intensive inputs indicated a deterioration in production structure. For policy implications, efforts should be undertaken to increase investment in low-carbon industries and increase the proportion of consumption in GDP to shift investment-led growth to consumption-led growth for an inclusive and green recovery from the pandemic.

The economy-employment-environmental health transfer and embedded inequities of China's capital metropolitan area: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Metropolitan areas have complex trade linkages internally and externally. This complexity stimulates the unequal spatial transfer of environmental health consequences, economy, and employment embodied in internal trade or trade with the outside regions, resulting in unequal exchange. Existing research has rarely discussed this issue at a refined scale, hindering targeted inequity alleviation policies.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study, focusing on the most polluted metropolitan area in the world, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China, and developed an integrated modelling framework to downscale the analysis of the trade-driven unequal transfer of PM2·5- related premature deaths, value added, and job opportunities to the city scale within Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The study couples a nested Multi-Regional Input-Output model table containing data from 13 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities and 28 outer provinces in 2017 with a bottom-up emission inventory, value added and employment statistical data, the Weather Research and Forecasting-Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions, the Global Exposure Mortality Model, and human capital methods. We also constructed two indices measuring unequal exchanges between PM2·5-related deaths and economic and employment gains embodied in trades between cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and trades with outside regions.

FINDINGS

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a single entity shifted 14 985 (95% CI 12 800-16 948) net deaths to regions outside the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei through trade, most of which occurred in the central region of China. The industrial-based peripheral Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities suffered the most serious inequities when trading with other Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities and outside regions. While gaining equivalent local jobs, these industrial-based peripheral cities had 250% higher PM2·5-related deaths (10·2 PM2·5-related deaths for obtaining 1000 local jobs) than core cities (2·9 PM2·5-related deaths for obtaining 1000 local jobs) and 57·7% higher PM2·5-related deaths than agricultural-based peripheral cities (6·5 PM2·5-related deaths for obtaining 1000 local jobs). While gaining equivalent value added, industrial-based peripheral cities had 50·6% higher PM2·5-related deaths (¥13·9 of reduced human capital due to PM2·5-related premature deaths to obtain ¥1000 local value added) than core cities (¥9·2 of reduced human capital due to PM2·5-related premature deaths to obtain ¥1000 local value added) and 67·4% higher PM2·5-related deaths than agricultural-based peripheral cities (¥8·3 of reduced human capital due to PM2·5-related premature deaths to obtain ¥1000 local value added).

INTERPRETATION

Treating metropolitan areas as a single entity obscured internal heterogeneity, potentially misleading policy makers into imposing strict regulations on the whole metropolitan area to alleviate the inequities it posed on outside regions. However, several peripheral Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities were disadvantaged in their trade with core Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cities and outside regions. Therefore, policies should be tailored for particular cities within metropolitan areas. Future targeted policies should include, but not be limited to, making ecological compensations and incorporating the environment and health costs into the price of pollution-intensive goods and services.

FUNDING

National Key Research and Devlopment Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Jiangsu Natural Science Foundation.

Analyzing the carbon emission effect and systematic emission reduction mechanism of the Sino-USA manufacturing trade

This study analyzed the theoretical mechanism of the carbon emission effect embodied in the Sino-USA manufacturing trade. We constructed a trade and carbon emission input-output model for 16 manufacturing sub-sectors in China and the USA from 2000 to 2018. A comprehensive empirical test of the systematic emission reduction mechanism was conducted. There were four main findings: (1) indirect and direct carbon emissions indicators can comprehensively analyze the link between production and demand across sectors; (2) indirect carbon emissions are higher than direct carbon emissions in half of the sectors in both China and the USA, and other sectors bear part of the carbon emissions for these sectors; (3) compared to 2000, the change in net exports of both countries is the main reason for the change in indirect carbon emissions, while the change in net exports of intermediate goods is the main reason for the change in direct carbon emissions; and (4) the Sino-USA trade surplus comes at the expense of China's environmental losses, while the USA obtains environmental benefits. Overall, the theoretical analytical framework not only comprehensively considers the interlinkages between production and demand across sectors but also provides a more reasonable evaluation of the environmental effects of Sino-USA trade. Additionally, this study provides a solid theoretical and empirical basis for China to achieve its dual-cycle and dual-carbon goals, thus promoting the rapid transformation of China's economy toward green and high-quality development.

Mismatched Social Welfare Allocation and PM2.5-Related Health Damage along Value Chains within China

Value chains have played a critical part in the growth. However, the fairness of the social welfare allocation along the value chain is largely underinvestigated, especially when considering the harmful environmental and health effects associated with the production processes. We used fine-scale profiling to analyze the social welfare allocation along China's domestic value chain within the context of environmental and health effects and investigated the underlying mechanisms. Our results suggested that the top 10% regions in the value chain obtained 2.9 times more social income and 2.1 times more job opportunities than the average, with much lower health damage. Further inspection showed a significant contribution of the "siphon effect"─major resource providers suffer the most in terms of localized health damage along with insufficient social welfare for compensation. We found that inter-region atmosphere transport results in redistribution for 53% health damages, which decreases the welfare-damage mismatch at "suffering" regions but also causes serious health damage to more than half of regions and populations in total. Specifically, around 10% of regions have lower social welfare and also experienced a significant increase in health damage caused by atmospheric transport. These results highlighted the necessity of a value chain-oriented, quantitative compensation-driven policy.

Revealing Inter-regional Environmental Inequities Hidden in China's Energy Transition

Energy transition is an important way to control air pollution, but it may conflict with the economic goal of alleviating regional inequality due to its inherently different cost burdens. As one of the effective measures of energy transition, this paper takes small coal-fired boiler (SCB) upgrading as an example to explore the regional mismatch between upgrading costs and health benefits. Here, we construct a boiler-level inventory of SCB upgrades for the North China Plain (NCP) during 2013-2017 and propose an integrated modeling framework to quantify the spatial contribution of economic costs and health benefits associated with SCB upgrading. We find that although the total health benefits could offset the total costs for the entire region, the developed municipalities (Beijing and Tianjin) are likely to gain more health benefits from less-developed neighboring provinces at lower costs. These developed municipalities contribute only 14% to the total health benefits but gain 21% of the benefits within their territories, 56% of which come from neighboring provinces. Their benefits are approximately 5.6 times their costs, which is much higher than the 1.5 benefit-cost ratio in neighboring provinces. Our findings may be useful in shaping more equitable and sound environmental policies in China or other regions of the world with serious coal-related air pollution.

Exergy analysis of natural resources embodied in China's interregional trade and its implication for regional imbalance

Large-scaled interregional trade is based upon massive exchanges of natural resources, leading to more environmental emissions and economic imbalance. China is the largest trade country in the world and has to face such challenges since different Chinese provinces are in different development stages with different resource endowments. By using the latest multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables and exergy accounting, this study aims to investigate natural resources and added values embodied in interregional trade in China for years of 2012, 2015, and 2017. Regional environmental inequality (REI) index and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) were applied to measure the imbalance states and uncover corresponding driving factors. Results show that the total trade volumes in the middle Yellow River and eastern coastal regions were generally higher than those in other regions, together accounting for 41.50 ~ 41.78% of the total trade volume during the study period. The major flows of embodied natural resources shifted from the middle Yellow River region to western coastal, eastern coastal, and southern coastal regions. The northern coastal and eastern coastal regions were the major exporters of embodied added value. Less developed regions had higher REI values, indicating more environmental and economic losses than developed regions. Natural resources intensity was the major impact factor on the trade imbalances in most provinces. This study provides valuable insights for alleviating trade imbalance and promoting sustainable natural resources management based on cross-regional collaboration.

Inter-regional environmental inequality under lasting pandemic exacerbated by residential response

Pandemics greatly affect transportation, economic and household activities and their associated air pollutant emissions. In less affluent regions, household energy use is often the dominant pollution source and is sensitive to the affluence change caused by a persisting pandemic. Air quality studies on COVID-19 have shown declines in pollution levels over industrialized regions as an immediate response to pandemic-caused lockdown and weakened economy. Yet few have considered the response of residential emissions to altered household affluence and energy choice supplemented by social distancing. Here we quantify the potential effects of long-term pandemics on ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM_2.5) and resulting premature mortality worldwide, by comprehensively considering the changes in transportation, economic production and household energy use. We find that a persisting COVID-like pandemic would reduce the global gross domestic product by 10.9 % and premature mortality related to black carbon, primary organic aerosols and secondary inorganic aerosols by 9.5 %. The global mortality decline would reach 13.0 % had the response of residential emissions been excluded. Among the 13 aggregated regions worldwide, the least affluent regions exhibit the greatest fractional economic losses with no comparable magnitudes of mortality reduction. This is because their weakened affluence would cause switch to more polluting household energy types on top of longer stay-at-home time, largely offsetting the effect of reduced transportation and economic production. International financial, technological and vaccine aids could reduce such environmental inequality.

Trade-driven changes in China's air pollutant emissions during 2012-2017

Trade plays an important role in driving regional production and the associated pollutant emissions. Revealing the patterns and underlying driving forces of trade may be critical for informing future mitigation actions among regions and sectors. In this study, we focused on the "Clean Air Action" period from 2012 to 2017 and revealed the changes and driving forces in trade-related air pollutant emissions (including sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter with a diameter equal to or less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), volatile organic compound (VOC), and carbon dioxide (CO₂)) among regions and sectors in China. Our results showed that emissions embodied in domestic trade decreased considerably in absolute volume nationwide (23-61 %, except for VOC and CO₂), but the relative contribution ratios from consumption in central and southwestern China increased (from 13 to 23 % to 15-25 % for various species), and those for eastern China decreased (from 39 to 45 % to 33-41 % for various species). From the sector perspective, trade-driven emissions from the power sector decreased in relative contribution ratios, while those from other sectors (including chemical, metal, nonmetal and services) were outstanding for specific regions, and became new targeted sectors when seeking mitigation through domestic supply chains. For changes in trade-related emissions, reduction in emission factor dominated the decreasing trends for almost all regions (27-64 % for the national total, except for VOC and CO₂), and optimization in trade and/or energy structures also played marked reduction roles in specific regions, far offsetting the increasing effect of increasing trade volume (26-32 %, except for VOC and CO₂). Our study provides a comprehensive picture of how trade-associated pollutant emissions changed during the "Clean Air Action" period, which may facilitate the formulation of more effective trade-associated policies to mitigate future emissions.

Large Virtual Transboundary Hazardous Waste Flows: The Case of China

The Basel Convention and prior studies mainly focused on the physical transboundary movements of hazardous waste (transporting waste from one region to another for cheaper disposal). Here, we take China, the world's largest waste producer, as an example and reveal the virtual hazardous waste flows in trade (outsourcing waste by importing waste-intensive products) by developing a multiregional input-output model. Our model characterizes the impact of international trade between China and 140 economies and China's interprovincial trade on hazardous waste generated by 161,599 Chinese enterprises. We find that, in 2015, virtual hazardous waste flows in China's trade reached 26.6 million tons (67% of the national total), of which 31% were generated during the production of goods that were ultimately consumed abroad. Trade-related production is much dirtier than locally consumed production, generating 26% more hazardous waste per unit of GDP. Under the impact of virtual flows, 40% of the waste-intensive production and relevant disposal duty is unequally concentrated in three Chinese provinces (including two least-developed ones, Qinghai and Xinjiang). Our findings imply the importance of expanding the scope of transboundary waste regulations and provide a quantitative basis for introducing consumer responsibilities. This may help relieve waste management burdens in less-developed "waste havens".

Tracking the spatial-temporal distribution and regional differences of carbon footprint in grid scale of China's construction industry

As the largest contributor to global carbon emissions (CEs), construction industry (CI) is regarded as one of the most significant sources in China. Previous studies on carbon emission (CE) of CI, however, are often limited to the quantitative level and provincial or local administrative unit scales, lacking relevant studies at the spatial raster resolution scale, due to data limits. Here, using the energy consumption, social economic data, and a series of remote sensing data from EU EDGAR, this study explored the spatial-temporal distribution and changing characteristics of CEs from CI in typical years of 2007, 2010, and 2012. This study found, from 2007 to 2010, then 2012, in addition to subtle differences, that the direct, indirect, and total CEs of CI all showed an increasing trend overall. In all provincial units except Tianjin and Guangdong, indirect CEs took up more than 50% of the total CEs, which can clearly indicate the "dominant low carbon, recessive high carbon" characteristics of CI. The direct, indirect, and total CEs of the CI in 2007, 2010, and 2012 all showed a positive spatial clustering. Specifically, hot spots were mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta, and cold spots were mainly focused in the west and northeast of China, presenting a similar distribution pattern with population-economy characteristics. These findings can provide references for the policy formulation of regional differentiated emission reduction.

Consumption-based emissions at city level in China and the spatial heterogeneity analysis of the influential factors

It is of great significance to identify the critical influential factors of pollutant emissions for emission mitigation. However, city disparity implies different priorities for regional mitigation. This study aims to estimate the consumption-based emissions of 309 prefecture-level cities in China based on the multi-region input-output table and the sectoral NOx emission inventory and investigate the emission transfer phenomenon among cities and sectors. In addition, a geographically weighted regression method is used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity in the driving factors of regional consumption-based emissions. The results reveal that the top 10 cities in consumption-based emissions account for 25.2% of emissions and contribute 22.6% to GDP. The consumption-based emissions are mainly driven by local demand (72.79%) at the regional level and by construction activities (94.43%) at the sectoral level. Besides, the results also show the spatial variances in contributions of driving forces to consumption-based emissions. Economic growth has been identified as the most important factor which promotes consumption-based emissions. However, disposable personal income, per capita road area, urbanization, and percentage of tertiary industry GDP are conducive to reduce consumption-based emissions in some cities of China. It could be concluded that policies without consideration of the emissions from a consumption perspective are difficult to achieve effective emission reduction.

Matching degree of embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among Chinese provinces (regions)

This paper constructs a matching index model to research the matching degree of embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among eight regions and 31 provinces in China in 2012 and 2015. The study finds that (1) At the regional level, a mismatch is shown between embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among regions, for example, in 2015, the northwest region has output embodied carbon to the north coast, while input the value-added trades from the north coast. (2) At the provincial level, a mismatch is displayed between embodied carbon transaction and value-added trade, for example, Beijing had a net shift of embodied carbon from Xinjiang in 2015, but Xinjiang had a net transfer of added value from Beijing. Therefore, the Chinese government needs to establish an ecological compensation mechanism to improve the mismatch between embodied carbon trade and value-added trade among Chinese regions (provinces).

Economic inequality and carbon inequality: Multi-evidence from China's cities and counties

Despite economic inequality (EI) and carbon inequality (CI) are both core targets for sustainable development goals (SDGs), the current studies on EI and CI still lacks in-depth investigation, hindering to formulate policy towards better balancing social welfare improvement and carbon emission reduction. To address the gap above, the study comprehensively analyzed on the trends and drivers of EI and CI in a case of 262 cities over 2002-2019 and 1434 counties over 2005-2017 in China at individual level and aggregate level, respectively. Further, we explored the decoupling relationship between EI and CI and corresponding driver using an inequality-based decoupling decomposition model we proposed. We found that almost all cities, counties and corresponding sub-groups presented overall declining trends for EI and CI except for county groups over the period, where the within difference was the main driver. Further, the change of population proportion and the regional ranking have promoted the reduction of EI and CI at city- and county-levels. Decoupling analysis implied that the main decoupling state between EI and CI was weak negative decoupling for cities and counties, where the changes in regional ranking and per capita carbon emission were the negative and positive drivers, respectively. The study highlights the importance of reducing EI and CI simultaneously for policy implication.

Causal complexity of environmental pollution in China: a province-level fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis

Environmental problems are endowed with the causal complexity of multiple factors. Traditional quantitative research on the influencing mechanism of environmental pollution has tended to focus on the marginal effects of specific influencing factors but generally neglected the multiple interaction effects between factors (especially three or more). Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces between 2011 and 2020, this study employs fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) - which can provide a fine-grained insight into the causal complexity of environmental issues - to shed light on the influencing mechanism of environmental pollution. The results show that there are several different configurations of pollution drivers which lead to high pollution or low pollution in provinces, confirming the multiple causality, causal asymmetry, and equifinality of environmental pollution. Furthermore, the combination effect of advanced industrial structure, small population size, and technological advance is significant in achieving a state of green environment compared to environmental regulation factors. In addition, spatiotemporal analysis of the configurations indicates that strong path dependencies and spatial agglomeration exist in current local environmental governance patterns. Finally, according to our findings, targeted policy recommendations are provided.

Water-saving co-benefits of CO2 reduction in China's electricity sector

Electricity sector is the largest CO₂ emitter and water user in China's industrial sectors. The low-carbon transition of China's electricity sector reduces its cooling water consumption. Here we firstly quantify CO₂ emission and virtual water embodied in electricity trade with Quasi-Input-Output model. Then, we analyze the impacts of energy substitution, efficiency improvement, and electricity trade on water-saving co-benefits of CO₂ reduction with the differences between the baseline scenario and counterfactual scenario. Results show that the low-carbon transition contributes to water-saving in China's electricity sector. Virtual water and embodied CO₂ have relatively decoupled from electricity trade since 2012. Water-saving (+10.4% yr^-1) outweighed CO₂ reduction (+8.4% yr^-1) through energy substitution and efficiency improvement in the 'new normal' stage. Our work emphasizes the need to integrate water-saving co-benefits of CO₂ reduction into electricity system planning and highlights the challenges to facilitate coordinated development of the electricity-water nexus in China.

Worsening Carbon Inequality Embodied in Trade within China

The mismatch between trade-embodied economic benefits and CO₂ emissions causes carbon inequality, which is seldom analyzed from the intracountry level, especially across a long-term period. This study applied an environmentally extended multiregional input-output model to trace this mismatch and measure the carbon inequality quantitatively within China during 2007-2017. The results show that during the past decade, China's national carbon inequality was continuously worsening with carbon Gini coefficients rising regardless of production- (0.21-0.30) or consumption-based (0.12-0.18) accounting. The regional carbon inequality was deteriorating, where less developed provinces with 20% of total value-added emitted 32.9% of total CO₂ emissions in 2007, while this figure rose to 42.6% in 2017. The eastern provinces (Jiangsu and Shanghai) had entered into net economic and carbon beneficiaries keeping high trade advantages, by contrast the northwest provinces (Ningxia and Xinjiang) were trapped in a lose-lose situation with trade benefits declining by 68%. The southwest provinces (Yunnan and Guangxi) shifted from being net carbon and value-added exporters to net importers, stepping into the earlier development mode of eastern provinces. This hidden and exacerbated carbon inequality calls for regional-specific measures to avoid the dilemma of economic development and CO₂ mitigation, which also gives a good reminder for the rising economies, like India.

Tracing toxic chemical releases embodied in U.S. interstate trade and their unequal distribution

Toxic chemicals have severe impacts on ecosystem, climate change and human health, and the current toxic releases are inequitably distributed across regions. Investigating the toxic release embodied in final demand by states and income groups can reveal the responsibility transfer of different entities. In this paper, we extended the U.S. multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model with toxic chemical release data in 2017 to conduct the production- and consumption-based accounting of toxic release by each state, and the inter-regional transfer of embodied toxic release between states. In addition, this paper analyzed how the toxic releases and inter-state transfer of embodied toxic release have been driven by income groups across states. The results showed that the toxic release from production was highly concentrated on the central states and the Great Lakes Region, while the consumption-based accounting of toxic release was more equally distributed across regions in the US. The non-metallic and metallic products manufacturing sectors were the most important sectors for most states from both production and consumption-based perspectives and were also the most essential sectors for interregional flows of embodied toxic release from Great Lake Region to Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Our results also showed that the largest portion (41.88%) of embodied toxic releases were triggered by households' final demand, and that the consumption of the richest 35% of households contributed to more than 50% of the total toxic chemical releases triggered by total final demand of all households.

Understanding Anthropogenic PM2.5 Concentrations and Their Drivers in China during 1998-2016

Air pollution poses serious challenges for human health and wellbeing. It also affects atmospheric visibility and contributes to climate change. As social and economic processes have increased, anthropogenic PM_2.5 pollution caused by intensive human activities has led to extremely severe air pollution. Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations have received increasing attention from the scientific community. Nonetheless, spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations are still inadequately understood. Based on a time series of remotely sensed anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of this crucial pollutant in China from 1998 to 2016 using Sen's slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall trend model. This, in combination with grey correlation analysis (GCA), was used to reveal the socioeconomic factors influencing anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations in eastern, central, and western China from 1998 to 2016. The results were as follows: (1) the average annual anthropogenic concentration of PM_2.5 in China increased quickly and reached its peak value in 2007, then remained stable in the following years; (2) only 63.30 to 55.09% of the land area reached the threshold value of 15 μg/m³ from 1998 to 2016; (3) regarding the polarization phenomenon of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations existing in eastern and central China, the proportion of gradient 1 (≤15 μg/m³) gradually decreased and gradient 3 (≥35 μg/m³) gradually increased; and (4) the urbanization level (UR), population density (PD), and proportion of secondary industry to gross domestic product (SI) were the dominant socioeconomic factors affecting the formation of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations in eastern, central, and western China, independently. The improvements in energy consumption per gross domestic product (EI) have a greater potential for mitigating anthropogenic PM_2.5 emissions in central and western China. These findings allow an interpretation of the spatial distribution of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations and the mechanisms influencing anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations, which can help the Chinese government develop effective abatement strategies.

Air pollution-induced health impacts and health economic losses in China driven by US demand exports

Understanding how trade between regions or countries drives the transfer of air pollution has attracted considerable interest recently, but few studies have explored the various transfer pathways or evaluated economic losses due to the health impact of such air pollution. Here, we assess the air pollutant emissions and related health impacts and economic losses in China caused by export trade due to US demand by combining the linked multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, GEOS-Chem model, integrated exposure-response model, and the willingness to pay method. We show that the air pollutant emissions embedded in China's export due to the US demand reached 5792.38 Kt in 2012 (2.48% of the total), which includes direct exports of intermediate (40.27%) and final (33.61%) products and indirect exports of intermediate products via domestic provinces (16.43%, domestic spillover) and other countries (9.69%, foreign spillover). The resulting increase in PM_2.5 (<2.8 μg m^-3) leads to additional 27,963 deaths in 30 provinces, with a higher death toll in coastal areas and the corresponding economic loss was higher in more developed regions and reached USD 2.08 billion. This study highlights the region-different air pollution and health impacts in China embedded in the US-demand trade, and provides a framework for the analysis of health and economic losses hidden in global trade, particularly between developing and developed countries.

Towards low-carbon domestic circulation: Insights from the spatiotemporal variations and socioeconomic determinants of emissions embedded within cross-province trade in China

For a country like China with unbalanced development pattern among provinces, domestic circulation (i.e., cross-province trade) is important for the long-term stability and prosperous development of economic market. However, with the rapid advance of integration of domestic regional economy, while expanding the internal market scale and deepening the provincial division of labor network for promoting the economic growth, the carbon emissions embedded within the cross-province traded products and services cannot be underestimated. Under the background of climate-trade dilemma, it is necessary to exploring the spatiotemporal variations and socioeconomic determinants of provincial "invisible" carbon emissions for a better understanding of trade-induced eco-environmental effects. To that end, this study developed an environmental-economic system model through integrating the environmentally extended multiregional input-output method and weighted average structural decomposition analysis technique to explore the trade-related emissions at the provincial level and generate the mitigation-management strategies for decisionmakers. Overall, more than half the emissions were embedded within cross-province goods and services trade over the whole study period. Furthermore, the distribution of traded emissions showed obvious spatial heterogeneity and great unbalance was existed between provincial imports and exports. Among all provinces, carbon surplus provinces were always more than deficit ones and the trading patterns of approximately 65% regions remained unchanged during 2007-2017. Remarkably, the emissions trading pattern undergone transition from carbon deficit to carbon surplus in provinces like Henan, Hubei, Guizhou, and so on. Conversely, provinces like Jilin, Shanghai, and Xinjiang showed opposite change. With the prevalence of online payment and electronic commerce in the future, the central and sub-national government could consider launching a pilot project for the design and creation of personal carbon consumption account in the carbon surplus provinces such as Guangdong, Henan, and Jiangsu. Meanwhile, for the provinces with larger carbon exports, it is necessary to establish the horizontal high technical transfer channels and vertical compensation mechanisms such as financial subsidies for improving the low-carbon production level. Our findings provided a holistic depict of national traded emissions at the provincial level, highlighting the importance of cross-province emission effect in exploring ways to promote the low-carbon transition of domestic circulation and fulfill the high-quality development of 'dual circulation' new pattern and successful achievement of 'double carbon' solemn commitment.

Does the environmental inequality matter? A literature review

The environmental inequality theory reveals that the risk of environmental pollution exposure varies among regions and groups and that particular groups face a higher threat of environmental pollution. In recent years, studies on the environmental inequality issue in developed countries have been increasing, while related literature on developing countries is very scarce. It has been found that some factors, such as race and economic status, have a close relationship with the risk of environmental pollution exposure faced by individuals. For the first time, this paper provides an extensive review of existing theoretical and empirical studies on environmental inequality. We review, in detail, the evolution of the environmental inequality theory, including the definition and measurement of environmental inequality. Further, we provide a systematic refresher on the main performance of environmental inequality, including health, education, labor productivity, and real estate prices. We also identify several causes of environmental inequality, such as ethnic differences, economic status, human capital, and household registration systems. Finally, we discuss prospects for the future research on this issue.

Analysis on Management Policies on Water Quantity Conflict in Transboundary Rivers Embedded with Virtual Water—Using Ili River as the Case

Current studies neglect how virtual water transfer (VWT) between countries within a drainage basin affects water stress and then yields an invisible effect on the water quantity conflict in transboundary rivers, which would further make management policies on water quantity conflict less fair and reasonable. Therefore, this study first constructs the Inequality Index of VWT and water stress index (WSI) to assess water stress. Next, different types are set according to the Inequality Index and WSI to analyze management policies, with Ili River as the case. Results show: (1) Within the study period, from 1996, the Inequality Index of VWT between China and Kazakhstan stayed at 0.368 (0.368 < 0.5), indicating a relatively high inequality of VWT between the two countries—China at a disadvantage, while Kazakhstan having the upper hand. (2) According to the remotely sensed data, WSI in the riparian zones of the Ili River rose from 0.288 to 0421 in China, and 0214 to 0.402 in Kazakhstan, showing intermediate scarcity. (3) China and Kazakhstan both fall into Type 2, and Kazakhstan has the advantageous position. Therefore, while allocating the water resources of the Ili River, Kazakhstan should lower its expectation and proactively ask to exchange benefits in other aspects to reverse the outward transfer of its physical water. In addition, the two countries should find suitable ways to go about water rights trading to reduce the possibility of potential water quantity conflict.

Carbon emissions from land use in Jiangsu, China, and analysis of the regional interactions

Land carbon emissions are primarily determined by land use type, and these emissions could be transferred during interprovincial trade activities. This study took Jiangsu in China as a case, assigned all the energy-related carbon emissions to land, and analyzed the transferred land use carbon emissions through the application of a tele-coupling framework. Finally, the physical spatial distribution of transferred land use carbon emissions within Jiangsu at high resolution was simulated. China and Jiangsu emitted 2.27 × 10⁹ t and 1.43 × 10⁸ t of carbon in 2012, respectively, with industrial and mining land being the biggest emission source, generating more than 70% of their total emissions. Overall, Jiangsu's net carbon emissions transferred to other provinces was 2.41 × 10⁶ t in urban land and 9.03 × 10⁵ t in industrial and mining land, and these carbon emissions were mainly transferred to Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia. Land utilization intensity and economic development influenced the carbon emission transfer to some extent. Other provinces also transferred a large amount of carbon emissions to Jiangsu, of which 2.57 × 10⁶ t was in urban land and 3.18 × 10⁷ t was in industrial and mining land. Our simulation showed that the emissions in both land use types exhibited a south-north difference within Jiangsu; more specifically, urban land carbon emissions were mainly concentrated in core urban areas, especially in Suzhou, Wuxi, and Nanjing, whereas industrial and mining land carbon emissions were mostly distributed in the periphery of core urban areas and along the Yangtze River. To balance economic development and environment protection, the government must limit the expansion of construction land (especially industrial and mining land), and developed regions should implement various types of ecological compensation measures to help less developed regions reduce carbon embodied in trade activities.

Reflection on the joint prevention and control of air pollution from the perspective of environmental justice-insights from a two-stage dynamic game model

The practices of the joint prevention and control of air pollution (JPCAP) present two disadvantages: the low enthusiasm of governance subjects and an unsatisfactory governance effect. Revealing the existing problems and exploring their causes has been a key issue for promoting JPCAP. Given this, we especially establish a two-stage dynamic game model for air pollution control to explore the advantages and dilemmas of JPCAP by analyzing changes in environmental tax rate and social welfare. The results show that the unfair distribution of social welfare among cities is a key reason for the unsatisfactory effect of JPCAP. Therefore, we improve JPCAP by considering both production-oriented and consumption-oriented pollutions based on environmental justice. In the improved JPCAP mode, the social welfare of each city is higher than that of non-joint control of air pollution (NJCAP), in which the increased degree is positively related to the city's negotiation ability. In addition, the consumption tax rate is negatively correlated with the negotiation ability of the central city and the trade transfer coefficient. This study not only provides a theoretical and methodological reference for formulating effective planning and compensation scheme for JPCAP but also can be extended to the practice and theoretical analysis of other cross-regional public issues.

Resource-Based Industries and CO2 Emissions Embedded in Value Chains: A Regional Analysis for Selected Countries in Latin America

This paper analyzes the relative content of CO2 emissions embedded in regional supply chains in four different countries in Latin America: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. We estimate both the trade in value-added (TiVA) and the CO2 content embedded in interregional and foreign exports, mapping the relative intensity of CO2 emission levels on value chains. For that, we applied an inter-regional input-output model to determine the interplay between the CO2 emission embedded in goods of resource-based industries and their linkages with other economic industries, revealing a map of CO2 emissions on trade in value-added trade from a subnational dimension. The main result reveals an interregional dependence, indicating a higher level of embedded CO2 on value-added in each regional economy for resource-based industries, usually intense in CO2 emissions. This finding has considerable implications for the sustainable development goals of these subnational areas, as the spatial concentration of production leads to an unbalanced regional capacity for promoting reductions in CO2 emissions along with value chains.

Revealing Virtual Water Transfers and Imbalanced Economic Benefits Hidden in China’s Interprovincial Trade

Interprovincial trade has expanded China’s virtual water consumption and economic development. This study uses an environmental–economic inequality index to calculate the virtual water and economic benefit transfer imbalances in interprovincial trade and applies a structural path analysis (SPA) model to find the imbalances on the key virtual water supply chain paths between provinces. The findings are fourfold. (1) The developed provinces, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong, had more virtual water on the consumption side from 2002 to 2017 and had the most value added on the consumption and production sides. (2) The developing provinces in northwest and central China suffered from net virtual water outflows and negative value-added gains in bilateral trade with developed provinces. (3) The developed provinces, such as Beijing, acquired more virtual water from other provinces in 0–5 production tiers, but only a small part of the value added was transferred out. (4) All of the four top ranking virtual water supply chain paths of Beijing came from other provinces, accounting for 28.22% of the total virtual water flowing to Beijing, but their value added only accounted for 1.44%. It is suggested that provinces adopt differentiated water-use systems to reduce virtual water transfer imbalances and provide subsidies to the nodes to compensate the economic benefits on key virtual water supply chain paths.

Quantified impacts of international trade on the United States' carbon intensity

After the USA reached its carbon emission peak in 2007, the share of carbon emissions from its energy activities showed a downward trend. As a country that accounts for even close to 80% of the tertiary industry, the final demands from other industries are usually met by other countries in the form of international trade. While trade is realizing economic transfer, it also realizes the transfer of carbon emissions to a certain extent, helping the country achieve the peaks. From the perspective of combining carbon emission transfer and economic transfer, are there transfers and impacts? In this study, the quantified impact of international trade on the USA's carbon intensity has been investigated by a novel framework, based on a porposed scenario analysis using MRIO. As it gets lower aggregate carbon intensity value under trade scenario, it concludes that international trade is more conducive to the needs of this country for carbon emission reduction and economic development in general. From the different trade patterns, all of them get lower carbon intensity values under trade than no-trade scenario. From trade partners' perspectives, the positive and negative of the intensity gap cannot be kept uniform for all traders. Sectoral driving factors are decomposed by LMDI method, with the sectoral effect of aggrerate value-added structure and sectoral aggregate embodied carbon intensity. Among obvious carbon-intensive sectors, transport sectors always show a negative effect for the gap, and heavy manufacturing and electricity sectors usually give positive effects. As a major trading country in the world, trade and exchanges with other countries are more conducive to this country with a lower carbon intensity, and it also requires the country to shoulder coresponding responsiblities as a great power while enjoying the benefies. It is conducive to the further strengthening of unity of the international community, to jointly address the challenges of climate change and achieve the subsequent carbon neutral targets.

Decline of virtual water inequality in China's inter-provincial trade: An environmental economic trade-off analysis

The trade-off between economic growth and environmental conservation is a significant factor in national environmental management. Previous studies have revealed that there are substantial water resources embodied in the inter-regional trade of China, but there is a scarcity of studies analyzing the cost-benefit inequality in trade, which should be considered when developing water resource allocation and conservation policies. The aim of the present study was to fill the gap in existing research by constructing a novel virtual water inequality index based on the net transfers of virtual water and value added between trading provinces. The results of the present study reveal that the virtual water trade of China accounts for about a third of the annual water use thereof and tends to flow from interior developing provinces to coastal developed provinces. Over 70% of consumption-based water consumption of richer provinces (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai) is imported from other regions; however, approximately 60% of the value added triggered by the final consumption of said regions is retained within the region. When trading with rich provinces, several developing provinces with rich water resources, such as Xinjiang and Heilongjiang, not only incur net water outflows but also suffer a negative balance of value added, thereby resulting in the occurrence of virtual water inequality. However, with the coordinated development of China's economy, the problem of virtual water inequality in China's inter-provincial trade has been alleviated to some extent. Advocating water pricing system reform to reflect local water scarcity is suggested, especially in arid regions. Additionally, a virtual water compensation scheme considering cost-benefit inequality in trade may also be a practical solution.

Regional interaction of lung cancer incidence influenced by PM2.5 in China

PM_2.5 is the key pollutant threatening human health and can even cause lung cancer. Pollution is the most serious problem in China with its fast industrialisation, urbanisation and high population density. This pollutant is conveyed through the atmosphere, trade and the embodied emission flow amongst regions. Scientific evaluation of the responsibility for regional lung cancer by considering both internal and external influences seems to be meaningful in addressing regional inequity. This study develops a relatively convenient and practical method to evaluate the regional inequity reflected by lung cancer associated with PM_2.5 pollution in China. Results show that PM_2.5 emissions and concentrations have similar distribution patterns: high values were predominant in the east and south where has high population density, while the west had low values. The cancer incidence rate showed high values mainly in eastern and central China. At a provincial scale, the lung cancer incidence rate was significantly correlated with PM_2.5 concentration levels, and a high correlation was also found between PM_2.5 concentration and emissions, indicating that emission reduction is the key to lung cancer prevention. Due to domestic trade, some developed regions more pulled lung cancer in less developed regions, and some less developed regions also have an obvious influence on external regions. Spatially, provinces in northern and central China are always more influenced by external regions. Lung cancer inequity analysis shows that coastline regions are more advantaged, while the reverse applies to inland China. The central government needs to further strengthen regional coordinated development measures, such as economic compensation for medical care and adjustments to industry structure. It should optimise spatial allocation and comprehensively consider regional inequity and character.

Economic and intensity effects of coal consumption in China

The increase in coal consumption and its impact on the environment has become a bottleneck that hinders sustainable development. This paper discusses the effect of economic growth and coal intensity on China's coal consumption during 2005-2017 using the Laspeyres index decomposition method. The decoupling of coal consumption from economic growth was examined in conjunction with the Tapio elasticity index, and the decoupling contributions of economic growth and coal intensity are further determined. The results indicated that economic growth drives an increase in coal consumption; however, the contribution rate declines gradually with decrease in economic growth rate in each province. Further research showed that the secondary industry is the main contributor to the increment, and the rapid development of tertiary industry increases indirect coal consumption. Coal intensity has a positive impact on curbing coal consumption, but it is not sufficient to offset the increment generated by the economic effect. Moreover, in each province, the curbing effect gradually decreased as the decline in coal intensity weakened in the secondary industry. Furthermore, coal consumption is weakly decoupled from economic growth over the long term, and the secondary industry will determine the future trend of decoupling.

The atmospheric lead emission, deposition, and environmental inequality driven by interprovincial trade in China

Lead (Pb) as a hazardous air pollutant has raised widespread concerns due to its adverse and toxic effects on the ecological environment and human health. Here we integrated the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model and an atmospheric transport model to examine regional environmental inequality (REI) index induced by Pb emission transfers, and to evaluate the impacts of interprovincial trade on regional atmospheric Pb concentrations and dry deposition fluxes in China in 2012. In 2012, approximately 57.4% ~ 72.6% of Pb emissions in well-developed eastern regions (Beijing-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta (YRD)) and the southern seaboard of China were embodied in other regions in China subject to the demands from these well-developed regions to industrial products and services. Our results, based on the net virtual flows of Pb emission and value-added, indicate that most provinces in the eastern seaboard of China outsource Pb emission and benefit from the interprovincial trade by reducing their Pb emissions. REI indexes show that the well-developed Guangdong province outsources its Pb emission but has low economic gains. Many less-developed provinces in central China enhance virtual Pb emission inflow but have high economic gains. Whereas, inland provinces in western China not only experience Pb emission increase, but also suffer from indirect economic loss due to trade with well-developed provinces to meet their increasing demands to Pb emission abundant industrial products from these provinces in eastern China which are mostly provided by less-developed but energy and mineral product abundant provinces in western China. For example, the province pair with highest REI index was Jiangsu-Inner Mongolia (REI = 2.47), which revealed that Jiangsu was the largest beneficiary which exported 37.2 t of net Pb emission and gained value-added of 521.4 billion RMB through trade with Inner Mongolia which suffered from both virtual Pb inflow and economic loss in 2012. As a result of interprovincial trade, Pb dry deposition in central and eastern China was decreased but increased in western China. Overall, interprovincial trade reduced 17.6% of atmospheric Pb dry deposition in China.

Exploring solutions to alleviate the regional water stress from virtual water flows in China

China has long faced an uneven distribution of physical water resources, which has been further exacerbated by the virtual water transfers embodied in the interregional trade. To alleviate such unfavorable influences of interregional virtual water flows on regional water scarcity, this paper first combined a multi-regional input-output model and a structural decomposition analysis to identify the major driving forces behind the changes in interregional virtual water flows from 2002 to 2012, and then conducted a scenario analysis to explore solutions for sustainable water resource management in China. Results indicated that the virtual water outflows from water-deficient developing regions (Northwest and Northeast) to water-abundant developed regions, such as East Coast and South Coast, have been increasingly intensified from 2002 to 2012. During the period, the final demand predominated the increase of virtual water transfers, while the improvement of water use efficiency dominated the decline in virtual water flows from 2002 to 2012. Results from the designed scenarios indicated that the negative impacts of interregional virtual water flows on the water stress can be effectively relieved, indicating the high priority of regional water use efficiency improvement, especially in water-starved regions.

Road freight emission in China: From supply chain perspective

Freight emissions management has entered the deep-water zone. This study evaluated road freight emissions from supply chain perspective using China's 2007, 2010 and 2012 multiregional input-output table. For the first time, we quantified road freight emission based on sectors in China. Heavy industries, mining, agriculture and light industry contributed 71%,14%, 12% and 3% of total NO_x emissions in 2012 from production perspective. Construction was the largest consumption sector (43%) responsible for road freight emission from consumption perspective. Upstream transport and final product transport emitted 3.04 Tg (80%) and 0.77 Tg (20%) NO_x in 2012. Huge disparities of road freight emissions flows and allocation patterns were found across provinces in China in terms of resource endowments, geographical position and economic development. The road freight emission increased rapidly from 2007 to 2012, and economic growth effect outpaced emission control effect caused by emission standard upgrade and thus dominated the emission growth. The production structure and consumption pattern changes also promoted the emission growth. It is thus important to mitigate freight emissions with different strategies based on a certain sector's freight emissions features from the whole supply chain.

Health and economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution transfer attributed to domestic trade in China: a provincial-level analysis

In recent years, severe air pollution has had a serious impact on the health and economy of residents and has attracted great attention. Due to the spatial separation between consumption and production, the transfer of PM_2.5 pollution and its health and economic effects caused by interprovincial trade have not been taken seriously. In this study, economic, atmospheric, and epidemiological models were combined to assess air pollution transfer and its health and economic impacts that are attributed to provincial trade in China. The analyses were performed under the PM_2.5 transfer scenario in which economically developed areas in eastern China transferred many health and economic impacts to inland areas through interprovincial trade in 2012. As a result of interprovincial trade, 1980 (95% CI 0, 4114) extra deaths and 208,000 (95% CI 74.5, 395.6) additional illnesses accrued, but 0.184 (95% CI 0.017, 0.372) billion USD of residents' economic loss was avoided in China. The results illustrate the serious impact of domestic trade on regional health and economics. It is necessary to comprehensively consider supply chains in designing policies to mitigate the negative health and economic impacts of air pollution across China.

Global environmental inequality: Evidence from embodied land and virtual water trade

The trade-off between economic growth and environmental conservation is the focus of national environmental management. Previous studies have proved that global trade can bring both economic benefits and environmental costs to all countries. However, for different countries, it is not clear whether the environmental costs match their economic benefits in global trade. Also, whether the global trade exacerbates or mitigates the uneven distribution of natural resources among countries need to be further investigated. This study aims to fill these research gaps by providing evidence of global environmental inequality from land and water perspective, thus inspire new thinking on the optimization of global trade patterns. We construct an environmental inequality index based on the world Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model, and perform a case study for land and water. Results show that most of countries with low per capita land resources are net importers of embodied land, while many countries with extreme water shortages are net exporters of virtual water, such as India, Pakistan, Iran and Egypt, indicating that the global trade encourages the optimal distribution of land resources but exacerbates the uneven distribution of water resources. The environmental cost of developed countries is much lower than that of developing countries compared to their economic gains from global trade, and the inequality of virtual water trade is higher than that of embodied land trade. High-income countries mainly export high value-added products with low environmental costs, while developing countries are just the opposite. We suggest that due to the lack of a unified global natural resource market, resource tax may be an effective means to reduce global environmental inequality and resource mismatch, and policies aimed at reducing environmental inequality can help achieve coordinated management of land and water resources.

A new method for dividing the scopes and priorities of air pollution control based on environmental justice

Joint prevention and control of air pollution (JPCAP) is an inevitable choice for controlling air pollution in the future. The existing air pollution prevention and control methods pay less attention to environmental justice, which results in poor treatment effects; hence, a more reasonable method is imperative. The innovation of this work is to construct a new method for dividing the scope and priorities of JPCAP by introducing environmental justice. First, we analyze the distribution and injustice of air pollution, and then divide JPCAP regions based on environmental justice using a clustering method. Finally, by selecting indicators from the characteristics of air pollution, natural conditions, and trade, the Entropy-TOPSIS method is employed to define the priorities of the JPCAP regions. Accordingly, we divided Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and its surrounding areas in China into four JPCAP regions. We also discovered key regions of air pollution control by determining the priorities of the four regions. The new method provides a practical guidance and a theoretical basis for regional joint control of air pollution.

Real economic benefits and environmental costs accounting of China-US trade

A critical reason for China-United States trade friction is that China has a huge trade balance, especially the trade balance of goods. However, this huge trade balance is based on the results of official statistics and does not reflect the real economic benefits and environmental costs embodied in China-US trade, where both refer to trade in value-added and embodied CO₂ emission costs, respectively. This paper calculates the trade in value-added and carbon emission transfer between China and the United States based on the World Input-Output Database. Results demonstrate that: (1) Gross trade statistics seriously overestimate China's benefits in China-US trade. The China-US trade surplus, based on gross trade statistics, is 20% higher than when based on trade in value-added accounting. (2) In China-US bilateral trade, China mainly adopts the trade model of importing intermediate products and exporting final products，whereas the United States mainly adopts the trade model of importing final products and exporting intermediate products. China's exports to the United States contain many of value-added in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. (3) From 2000 through 2014, China maintained a large surplus of CO₂ emissions exports to the United States, and China paid a huge environmental cost in its trade with the United States. (4) In China-US trade, China's environmental costs per unit value-added is 3.02 times that of the United States.

Household carbon and energy inequality in Latin American and Caribbean countries

Reducing inequality, eradicating poverty and achieving a carbon-neutral society are recognized as important components of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. In this study, we focus on carbon and energy inequality between and within ten Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Detailed carbon and energy footprint were estimated by combining the consumption profiles (2014) in ten LAC countries with environmental extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. Our results show significant inequality of regional total and per capita carbon and energy footprint across the studied LAC countries in 2014. The top 10% income category was responsible for 29.1% and 26.3% of the regional total carbon and energy footprint, and their per capita carbon and energy footprint were 12.2 and 7.5 times of the bottom 10% earners in that region. The average carbon footprint of studied LAC countries varied between 0.53 and 2.21 t CO₂e/cap (ton of CO₂ equivalent, per capita), and the energy footprint ranged from 0.38 to 1.76 t SOE/cap (ton of Standard Oil Equivalent, per capita). The huge difference in total and per capita carbon emissions and energy consumption of different income groups suggests notable differences in climate change responsibility, and supports policies for achieving sustainable consumption in terms of carbon tax, renewable energy subsidy, and decarbonizing the consumption structure in different LAC countries.

Social inequality among elderly individuals caused by climate change: Evidence from the migratory elderly of mainland China

Faced with severe and growing social inequality among elderly individuals, a more complete understanding of the interconnection between the seasonal migration of the elderly and climate change is clearly needed. This paper tries to clarify the relation between the seasonal migration of the elderly and climate change from a multidimensional perspective. Our study adds to the research on population aging against the background of climate change. This study shows that climate change has a significant impact on regional population aging and that there are significant internal differences between the distribution and scale of the migratory elderly stemming from unequal environmental conditions. Advanced economic conditions and relatively comfortable environments have put some pressure on social endowment services in the three provinces of Northeast China, especially Liaoning Province. With their complex migration mechanism, the fate of the elderly in mainland China is closely intertwined with climatic factors, individual and socioeconomic conditions, traditional cultural backgrounds, etc. A comparatively advanced economy, well-developed endowment resources, and a comfortable environment will help in the development of regional aging resources. Regional inequality and the pursuit of a meaningful life have created different categories of migratory elderly.