Evaluating causes of trends in long-term dissolved reactive phosphorus loads to Lake Erie

Evaluation of Minnesota Phosphorus Loss Index performance

Supported by the National Phosphorus (P) Research Project led by Dr. Andrew Sharpley, Minnesota developed its statewide P-Index, the Minnesota P Loss Index (MNPI), to manage critical source areas of agricultural P. The MNPI has remained unchanged since its last revision in 2006. The overall goal of this study was to critically evaluate the MNPI to determine, in the parlance of Sharpley, if the MNPI remains "directionally and magnitudinally correct." Observed P loss from 67 site-years of annual edge-of-field data was compared with MNPI-predicted P loss. Our assessment indicates that MNPI performance is directionally correct: it correctly ranks fields that are more at risk than others. The MNPI performed better in years with high-intensity rainfall events. Averaging MNPI assessment across multiple years of data input, along with minor adjustments to the calculation algorithm, improved the robustness of MNPI estimates. Continued re-evaluation of the MNPI will ensure that this important tool for nutrient management is properly evaluating P loss potential. This study reflects Dr. Sharpley's decades-long effort to improve and revise P indices so that they reflect advances in the science and management of agricultural P.

Enhancing phosphorus source apportionment in watersheds through species-specific analysis

Phosphorus (P) is a pivotal element responsible for triggering watershed eutrophication, and accurate source apportionment is a prerequisite for achieving the targeted prevention and control of P pollution. Current research predominantly emphasizes the allocation of total phosphorus (TP) loads from watershed pollution sources, with limited integration of source apportionment considering P species and their specific implications for eutrophication. This article conducts a retrospective analysis of the current state of research on watershed P source apportionment models, providing a comprehensive evaluation of three source apportionment methods, inventory analysis, diffusion models, and receptor models. Furthermore, a quantitative analysis of the impact of P species on watersheds is carried out, followed by the relationship between P species and the P source apportionment being critically clarified within watersheds. The study reveals that the impact of P on watershed eutrophication is highly dependent on P species, rather than absolute concentration of TP. Current research overlooking P species composition of pollution sources may render the acquired results of source apportionment incapable of assessing the impact of P sources on eutrophication accurately. In order to enhance the accuracy of watershed P pollution source apportionment, the following prospectives are recommended: (1) quantifying the P species composition of typical pollution sources; (2) revealing the mechanisms governing the migration and transformation of P species in watersheds; (3) expanding the application of traditional models and introducing novel methods to achieve quantitative source apportionment specifically for P species. Conducting source apportionment of specific species within a watershed contributes to a deeper understanding of P migration and transformation, enhancing the precise of management of P pollution sources and facilitating the targeted recovery of P resources.

Soil legacy nutrients contribute to the decreasing stoichiometric ratio of N and P loading from the Mississippi River Basin

Human-induced nitrogen-phosphorus (N, P) imbalance in terrestrial ecosystems can lead to disproportionate N and P loading to aquatic ecosystems, subsequently shifting the elemental ratio in estuaries and coastal oceans and impacting both the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems. The N:P ratio of nutrient loading to the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi River Basin increased before the late 1980s driven by the enhanced usage of N fertilizer over P fertilizer, whereafter the N:P loading ratio started to decrease although the N:P ratio of fertilizer application did not exhibit a similar trend. Here, we hypothesize that different release rates of soil legacy nutrients might contribute to the decreasing N:P loading ratio. Our study used a data-model integration framework to evaluate N and P dynamics and the potential for long-term accumulation or release of internal soil nutrient legacy stores to alter the ratio of N and P transported down the rivers. We show that the longer residence time of P in terrestrial ecosystems results in a much slower release of P to coastal oceans than N. If contemporary nutrient sources were reduced or suspended, P loading sustained by soil legacy P would decrease much slower than that of N, causing a decrease in the N and P loading ratio. The longer residence time of P in terrestrial ecosystems and the increasingly important role of soil legacy nutrients as a loading source may explain the decreasing N:P loading ratio in the Mississippi River Basin. Our study underscores a promising prospect for N loading control and the urgency to integrate soil P legacy into sustainable nutrient management strategies for aquatic ecosystem health and water security.

Bloom-induced internal release controlling phosphorus dynamics in large shallow eutrophic Lake Taihu, China

High phosphorus (P) concentrations are commonly observed in lakes during algal blooms despite massive efforts on external nutrient reduction. However, the knowledge about the relative contribution of internal P loading linked with algal blooms on lake phosphorus (P) dynamics remains limited. To quantify the effect of internal loading on P dynamics, we conducted extensive spatial and multi-frequency nutrient monitoring from 2016 to 2021 in Lake Taihu, a large shallow eutrophic lake in China, and its tributaries (2017-2021). The in-lake P stores (ILSP) and external loading were estimated and then internal P loading was quantified from the mass balance equation. The results showed that the in-lake total P stores (ILSTP) ranged from 398.5 to 1530.2 tons (t), and exhibited a dramatic intra- and inter-annual variability. The annual internal TP loading released from sediment ranged from 1054.3 to 1508.4 t, which was equivalent to 115.6% (TP loading) of the external inputs on average, and responsible for the fluctuations of ILSTP on a weekly scale. High-frequency observations exemplified that ILSTP increased by 136.4% during algal blooms in 2017, while by only 47.2% as a result of external loading after heavy precipitation in 2020. Our study demonstrated that both bloom-induced internal loading and storm-induced external loading are likely to run counter significantly to watershed nutrient reduction efforts in large shallow lakes. More importantly, bloom-induced internal loading is higher than storm-induced external loading over the short term. Given the positive feedback loop between internal P loadings and algal bloom in eutrophic lakes, which explains the significant fluctuation of P concentration while nitrogen concentration decreased. It is emphasized that internal loading and ecosystem restoration are unignorable in shallow lakes, particularly in the algal-dominated region.

Efficient protection of the Baltic Sea needs a revision of phosphorus metric

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is driven by phosphorus and nitrogen. While the anthropogenic point source loads of both nutrients have decreased markedly, further reductions are needed. This is true particularly for phosphorus, as highlighted by its stringent abatement targets in HELCOM's Baltic Sea Action Plan. To meet the targets, more results need to be achieved in non-point source abatement, specifically from agricultural sources. The growing pressure for phosphorus abatement from agriculture may lead to environmentally and economically inefficient outcomes unless we account for the variability in how different forms of phosphorus respond to abatement measures, and how these forms contribute to eutrophication. The precautionary and efficiency improving way to advance policies is to either replace or supplement the Total Phosphorus metric with a metric more accurate in reflecting the biologically available phosphorus. This policy fix becomes more important as the relative share of agricultural emissions of total pollution increases.

A raster-based estimation of watershed phosphorus load and its impacts on surrounding rivers based on process-based modelling

Quantifying phosphorus (P) load from watersheds at a fine scale is crucial for studying P sources in lake or river ecosystems; however, it is particularly challenging for mountain-lowland mixed watersheds. To address this challenge, we proposed a framework to estimate the P load at the grid scale and assessed its risk to surrounding rivers in a typical mountain-lowland mixed watershed (Huxi Region in Lake Taihu Basin, China). The framework coupled three models: the Phosphorus Dynamic model for lowland Polder systems (PDP), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the Export Coefficient Model (ECM). The coupled model performed satisfactory for both hydrological and water quality variables (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.5). Our modelling practice revealed that polder, non-polder, and mountainous areas had P load of 211.4, 437.2, and 149.9 t yr^-1, respectively. P load intensity in lowlands and mountains was 1.75 and 0.60 kg ha^-1 yr^-1, respectively. A higher P load intensity (>3 kg ha^-1 yr^-1) was mainly observed in the non-polder area. In lowland areas, irrigated cropland, aquaculture ponds and impervious surfaces contributed 36.7%, 24.8%, and 25.8% of the P load, respectively. In mountainous areas, irrigated croplands, aquaculture ponds, and impervious surfaces contributed 28.6%, 27.0%, and 16.4% of the P load, respectively. Rivers with relatively high P load risks were mainly observed around big cities during rice season, owing to a large contribution of P load from the non-point source pollution of urban and agricultural activities. This study demonstrated a raster-based estimation of watershed P load and their impacts on surrounding rivers using coupled process-based models. It would be useful to identify the hotspots and hot moments of P load at the grid scale.

Advancing freshwater ecological forecasts: Harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Ecological models help provide forecasts of ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic stresses. However, their ability to create reliable predictions requires forecasts with track records sufficiently long to build confidence, skill assessments, and treating uncertainty quantitatively. We use Lake Erie harmful algal blooms as a case study to help formalize ecological forecasting. Key challenges for models include uncertainty in the deterministic structure of the load-bloom relationship and the need to assess alternative drivers (e.g., biologically available phosphorus load, spring load, longer term cumulative load) with a larger dataset. We enhanced a Bayesian model considering new information and an expanded data set, test it through cross validation and blind forecasts, quantify and discuss its uncertainties, and apply it for assessing historical and future scenarios. Allowing a segmented relationship between bloom size and spring load indicates that loading above 0.15 Gg/month will have a substantially higher marginal impact on bloom size. The new model explains 84 % of interannual variability (9.09 Gg RMSE) when calibrated to the 19-year data set and 66 % of variability in cross validation (12.58 Gg RMSE). Blind forecasts explain 84 % of HAB variability between 2014 and 2020, which is substantially better than the actual forecast track record (R² = 0.32) over this same period. Because of internal phosphorus recycling, represented by the long-term cumulative load, it could take over a decade for HABs to fully respond to loading reductions, depending on the pace of those reductions. Thus, the desired speed and endpoint of the lake's recovery should be considered when updating and adaptively managing load reduction targets. Results are discussed in the context of ecological forecasting best pactices: incorporate new knowledge and data in model construction; account for multiple sources of uncertainty; evaluate predictive skill through validation and hindcasting; and answer management questions related to both short-term forecasts and long-term scenarios.

Investigating water quality sensitivity to climate variability and its influencing factors in four Lake Erie watersheds

Climate change alters weather patterns and hydrological cycle, thus potentially aggravating water quality impairment. However, the direct relationships between climate variability and water quality are complicated by a multitude of hydrological and biochemical mechanisms dominate the process. Thus, little is known regarding how water quality responds to climate variability in the context of changing meteorological conditions and human activities. Here, a longitudinal study was conducted using trend, correlation, and redundancy analyses to explore stream water quality sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and how the sensitivity was affected by watershed climate, land cover percentage, landscape configuration, fertilizer application, and tillage types. Specifically, daily pollutant concentration data of suspended solid (SS), total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate and nitrite (NO_x), and chloride (Cl) were used as water quality indicators in four Lake Erie watersheds from 1985 to 2017, during which the average temperature has increased 0.5 °C and the total precipitation has increased 9%. Results show that precipitation and flow were positively associated with SRP, NO_x, TKN, TP, and SS, except for SRP and NO_x in the urban basin. The rising temperatures led to increasing concentrations of SS, TKN, and TP in the urban basin. SRP and NO_x sensitivity to precipitation was higher in the years with more precipitation and higher precipitation seasonality, and the basins with more spatially aggregated cropland. No-tillage and reduced tillage management could decrease both precipitation and temperature sensitivity for most pollutants. As one of the first studies leveraging multiple watershed environmental variables with long-term historical climate and water quality data, this study can assist target land use planning and management policy to mitigate future climate change effects on surface water quality.

Filamentous Algae Blooms in a Large, Clear-Water Lake: Potential Drivers and Reduced Benthic Primary Production

An apparent proliferation of filamentous algal blooms (FABs) in pristine lakes around the world is a source of concern. However, little is known about the predominant drivers and effects of such FABs on lake ecosystems. We observed FABs in a large clear-water lake (Bear Lake, UT/ID, USA) and analyzed long-term lake monitoring data and algal stable isotopes for changes in climate, food webs and anthropogenic nutrient loading, respectively, as potential local drivers of FAB formation. Furthermore, we quantified in situ metabolism rates on rocks with and without FABs at two locations. Long-term monitoring data revealed increasing summer water temperatures (2009 to 2020) and decreasing winter ice cover (1923 to 2021). The FABs had δ15N values that were higher than 0 ‰, indicating a potential nutrient influx to Bear Lake from livestock or human waste. Climate change and anthropogenic nutrients may thus have facilitated FAB occurrence. Contrary to expectation, the FABs exhibited significantly lower gross primary production rates compared to low-biomass periphyton communities, indicating potentially negative effects of FAB proliferations on lake food webs. Our results highlight the need for expanding lake monitoring programs to include littoral zones to detect and mitigate changes occurring in lakes.

Development of an organomineral fertiliser formulation that improves tomato growth and sustains arbuscular mycorrhizal colonisation

Achieving sustainable agricultural development requires the efficient use of nutrient resources for crop production. Recovering nutrients from animal manures may play a key role in achieving this. Animal manures typically have low nutrient concentrations, and in ratios that are often not ideal for balanced crop nutrition. Here, combinations of organic and inorganic phosphorus (P) were formulated as granular products (organomineral fertilisers) with granule size suitable for transport and spreading. The fertilisers were produced by granulating powdered chicken litter with MAP and urea powders making the following formulations: 0:4, 1:3, 2:2, 3:1, 4:0. The kinetics of NH₄⁺-N and P release from the fertilisers, and the effects on tomato growth and nutrition, as well as arbuscular mycorrhizal formation in roots following fertiliser application, were determined. Cumulative NH₄⁺-N release ceased within 12 h, and was lower in the formulations with higher proportions of chicken litter. The cumulative P released reached approximately 80% of total P in all formulations, and the time to obtain maximum P dissolution was 19 days in the formulation that contained only chicken litter. The organomineral fertilisers increased tomato shoot growth by 15-28% compared to the chicken litter only, MAP only and MAP/urea formulations. Reasonable levels of mycorrhizal colonisation of tomato roots was achieved with the organomineral fertilisers. The results demonstrated that optimum plant growth does not depend solely on immediately available P, and that timing of nutrient supply to match plant demand is important. The combination of chicken litter with MAP sustained nutrient supply and improved plant growth. Taken together, organomineral fertiliser formulations are potential alternatives to inorganic P fertilisers that can improve crop growth and nutrition, while provide a sustainable use for animal production wastes.

Temporal scope influences ecosystem driver-response relationships: A case study of Lake Erie with implications for ecosystem-based management

Understanding environmental driver-response relationships is critical to the implementation of effective ecosystem-based management. Ecosystems are often influenced by multiple drivers that operate on different timescales and may be nonstationary. In turn, contrasting views of ecosystem state and structure could arise depending on the temporal perspective of analysis. Further, assessment of multiple ecosystem components (e.g., biological indicators) may serve to identify different key drivers and connections. To explore how the timescale of analysis and data richness can influence the identification of driver-response relationships within a large, dynamic ecosystem, this study analyzed long-term (1969-2018) data from Lake Erie (USA-Canada). Data were compiled on multiple biological, physical, chemical, and socioeconomic components of the ecosystem to quantify trends and identify potential key drivers during multiple time intervals (20 to 50 years duration), using zooplankton, bird, and fish community metrics as indicators of ecosystem change. Concurrent temporal shifts of many variables occurred during the 1980s, but asynchronous dynamics were evident among indicator taxa. The strengths and rank orders of predictive drivers shifted among intervals and were sometimes taxon-specific. Drivers related to nutrient loading and lake trophic status were consistently strong predictors of temporal patterns for all indicators; however, within the longer intervals, measures of agricultural land use were the strongest predictors, whereas within shorter intervals, the stronger predictors were measures of tributary or in-lake nutrient concentrations. Physical drivers also tended to increase in predictive ability within shorter intervals. The results highlight how the time interval examined can filter influences of lower-frequency, slower drivers and higher-frequency, faster drivers. Understanding ecosystem change in support of ecosystem-based management requires consideration of both the temporal perspective of analysis and the chosen indicators, as both can influence which drivers are identified as most predictive of ecosystem trends at that timescale.

Containing the Risk of Phosphorus Pollution in Agricultural Watersheds

Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient to boost crop yields, but P runoff can cause nutrient over-enrichment in agricultural watersheds and can lead to irreversible effects on aquatic ecosystems and their biodiversity. Lake Erie is one prominent example as this watershed has experienced multiple episodes of harmful algal blooms over the last decades. Annual P loads crucially depend on yearly weather variations, which can create the risk of years with high runoff and excessive nutrient loads. Here we apply stochastic modeling to derive sustainable management strategies that balance crop yield optimization with environmental protection, while accounting for weather variability as well as weather trends as a result of climate change. We demonstrate that ignoring annual weather variations results in mitigation efforts for environmental pollution that are largely insufficient. Accounting explicitly for future variations in precipitation allows us to control the risk of emissions exceeding the P target loads. When realistic risk targets are imposed, we find that a package of additional measures is required to avoid P over-enrichment in the Lake Erie watershed. This package consists of a substantial reduction of P inputs (approximately 30% for different accepted risk levels), adoption of cover crops throughout the near- and mid-century, and cultivation of less nutrient-intensive crops (30% more soy at the expense of corn). Although climate change reinforces these conclusions, we find that the accepted risk level of exceeding P target loads is the predominant factor in defining a sustainable nutrient management policy.

Impacts of Climate Alteration on the Hydrology of the Yarra River Catchment, Australia Using GCMs and SWAT Model

A rigorous evaluation of future hydro-climatic changes is necessary for developing climate adaptation strategies for a catchment. The integration of future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) in the simulations of a hydrologic model, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is widely considered as one of the most dependable approaches to assess the impacts of climate alteration on hydrology. The main objective of this study was to assess the potential impacts of climate alteration on the hydrology of the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia, using the SWAT model. The climate projections from five GCMs under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2050, respectively—were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model for the analysis of future hydrologic behaviour against a baseline period of 1990–2008. The SWAT model performed well in its simulation of total streamflow, baseflow, and runoff, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of more than 0.75 for monthly calibration and validation. Based on the projections from the GCMs, the future rainfall and temperature are expected to decrease and increase, respectively, with the highest changes projected by the GFDL-ESM2M model under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. These changes correspond to significant increases in annual evapotranspiration (8% to 46%) and decreases in other annual water cycle components, especially surface runoff (79% to 93%). Overall, the future climate projections indicate that the study area will become hotter, with less winter–spring (June to November) rainfall and with more water shortages within the catchment.

SWAT model application for evaluating agricultural conservation practice effectiveness in reducing phosphorous loss from the Western Lake Erie Basin

Lake Erie is threatened by eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrient loading from agricultural sources. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) have been developed and implemented to reduce nutrient losses but estimating ACP effectiveness is challenging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to investigate ACP effectiveness for water quality improvement. Many SWAT applications have been developed by different investigators to evaluate ACP effectiveness for reducing nutrient, particularly phosphorus (P), loading in the agriculturally-dominated Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Our objective is to establish what has been achieved by past modeling research and make suggestions for future applications and improvements. We synthesized the findings of 28 SWAT modeling studies within the WLEB. Models generally performed satisfactorily against accepted criteria for streamflow and sediment, but performance for P loads, like soluble reactive P, was mostly "unsatisfactory". The "unsatisfactory" performance maybe due to imperfections and idealizations in model formulations and/or parameterization. Thus, simulations of P transport and transformation processes need improvement. In addition, model parameter selection is the key part of model set-up. Most SWAT modeling studies used default values during initial set-up, then performed calibration and validation. It was found that the calibrated P related parameter values varied widely across different studies, even within the same watershed with some values unrealistic for the study areas. The phenomena of different combinations of model parameters producing similar outputs indicates equifinality. Equifinality in the baseline model may impact results when ACPs are incorporated. Furthermore, the unrealistic values used in ACP assessment undermine the credibility of ACP effectiveness. Future model applications should try to re-examine the calibrated P parameters and make sure they are realistic for the study area as well as reduce equifinality by constraining the model with characterization of watershed conditions, better understanding of hydrologic processes, and parameter values based on real-world observations. In summary, future model applications should focus on improving P transport and transformation processes, using measured watershed characteristics for parameterization, and improving reflections of climate change, which could result in more accurate assessments of ACP effectiveness to meet targeted goals.

Source contribution analysis of nutrient pollution in a P-rich watershed: Implications for integrated water quality management

It is still a great challenge to address nutrient pollution issues caused by various point sources and non-point sources on the watershed scale. Source contribution analysis based on watershed modeling can help watershed managers identify major pollution sources, propose effective management plans and make smart decisions. This study demonstrated a technical procedure for addressing watershed-scale water pollution problems in an agriculture-dominated watershed, using the Dengsha River Watershed (DRW) in Dalian, China as an example. The SWAT model was improved by considering the constraints of soil nutrient concentration, i.e., nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), when modeling the nutrient uptake by a typical crop, corn. Then the modified SWAT model was used to quantify the contributions of all known pollution sources to the N and P pollution in the DRW. The results showed that crop production and trans-administrative wastewater discharge were the two dominant sources of nutrient pollution. This study further examined the responses of nutrient loss and crop yield to different fertilizer application schemes. The results showed that N fertilizer was the limiting factor for crop yield and that excessive levels of P were stored in the agricultural soils of the DRW. An N fertilizer application rate of approximately 40% of the current rate was suggested to balance water quality and environmental protection with crop production. The long-term impact of legacy P was investigated with a 100-year future simulation that showed the crop growth could maintain for 12 years even after P fertilization ceased. Our study highlights the need to consider source attribution, fertilizer application and legacy P impacts in agriculture-dominated watersheds. The analysis framework used in this study can provide a scientifically sound procedure for formulating adaptive and sustainable nutrient management strategies in other study areas.

One size does not fit all: Toward regional conservation practice guidance to reduce phosphorus loss risk in the Lake Erie watershed

Agricultural phosphorus (P) losses to surface water bodies remain a global eutrophication concern, despite the application of conservation practices on farm fields. Although it is generally agreed upon that the use of multiple conservation practices ("stacking") will lead to greater improvements to water quality, this may not be cost effective to farmers, reducing the likelihood of adoption. At present, wholesale recommendations of conservation practices are given; however, the application of specific conservation practices in certain environments (e.g., no-till with surface application, cover crops) may not be effective and can even lead to unintended consequences. In this paper, we present the Lake Erie watershed as a case study. The Lake Erie watershed contains regions with unique physical geographies that include differences in climate, soil, topography, and land use, which have implications for both P transport from agricultural fields and the efficacy of conservation practices in mitigating P losses. We define major regions within the Lake Erie watershed where common strategies for conservation practice implementation are appropriate, and we propose a five-step plan for bringing regionally tailored, adaptive, and cost-conscious conservation practice into watershed planning. Although this paper is specific to the Lake Erie watershed, our framework can be transferred across broader geographic regions to provide guidance for watershed planning.

Residential catchments to coastal waters: Forms, fluxes, and mechanisms of phosphorus transport

Controlling phosphorus (P) loss from land to water bodies is of immense scientific and societal interest and scrutiny. We investigated P forms in a longitudinal gradient in three typical urban junctions: stormwater from a residential catchment, pond discharges from a stormwater retention pond, and 13 coastal waters (rivers and estuary). Concentrations of total P (TP) were 122.7 ± 99.1 μg/L in the stormwater, 89.7 ± 35.8 μg/L in the pond discharges, and 212.1 ± 51.2 μg/L in 13 coastal water sites. Lower P concentrations in pond discharges reflect P attenuation in the stormwater pond, and higher P concentrations in surface waters are likely attributed to the additional contributing P sources in the watershed. Dissolved reactive P (DRP) was 38% of TP load in stormwater and 46% of TP concentrations in surface water sites, whereas particulate unreactive P (PUP) was 52% of TP load in pond discharges. The first-flush strength of P forms in the stormwater indicated the dominance of particulate P over dissolved P. More particulate P was transported in the early stages of storms due to the runoff of P associated with sediment, plant materials, and built up on impervious surfaces. Whereas more dissolved P was transported in the later stages of storms likely due to the flushing of P, as exacerbated by greater runoff amounts, from the landscape sources, i.e., grass clippings, tree leaves, and soil. In the pond discharges, DRP was a minor form suggesting its utilization by bacteria and algae in the pond. The high concentration and proportion of DRP in surface waters suggest an abundance of bioavailable P in urban waters. These results imply that treatment designs in urban areas should consider ways to remove P in urban landscapes focusing on attenuating P before the initiation of runoff and discharge to surface waters to protect downstream water quality.

Quantifying uncertainty cascading from climate, watershed, and lake models in harmful algal bloom predictions

In response to increased harmful algal blooms (HABs), hypoxia, and nearshore algae growth in Lake Erie, the United States and Canada agreed to phosphorus load reduction targets. While the load targets were guided by an ensemble of models, none of them considered the effects of climate change. Some watershed models developed to guide load reduction strategies have simulated climate effects, but without extending the resulting loads or their uncertainties to HAB projections. In this study, we integrated an ensemble of four climate models, three watershed models, and four HAB models. Nutrient loads and HAB predictions were generated for historical (1985-1999), current (2002-2017), and mid-21st-century (2051-2065) periods. For the current and historical periods, modeled loads and HABs are comparable to observations but exhibit less interannual variability. Our results show that climate impacts on watershed processes are likely to lead to reductions in future loading, assuming land use and watershed management practices are unchanged. This reduction in load should help reduce the magnitude of future HABs, although increases in lake temperature could mitigate that decrease. Using Monte-Carlo analysis to attribute sources of uncertainty from this cascade of models, we show that the uncertainty associated with each model is significant, and that improvements in all three are needed to build confidence in future projections.

Bias correction of climate model outputs influences watershed model nutrient load predictions

Waterbodies around the world experience problems associated with elevated phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) loads. While vital for ecosystem functioning, when present in excess amounts these nutrients can impair water quality and create symptoms of eutrophication, including harmful algal blooms. Under a changing climate, nutrient loads are likely to change. While climate models can serve as inputs to watershed models, the climate models often do not adequately represent the distribution of observed data, generating uncertainties that can be addressed to some degree with bias correction. However, the impacts of bias correction on nutrient models are not well understood. This study compares 4 univariate and 3 multivariate bias correction methods, which correct precipitation and temperature variables from 4 climate models in the historical (1980-1999) and mid-century future (2046-2065) time periods. These variables served as inputs to a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of Lake Erie's Maumee River watershed. We compared the performance of SWAT outputs driven with climate model outputs that were bias-corrected (BC) and not bias-corrected (no-BC) for dissolved reactive P, total P, and total N. Results based on graphical comparisons and goodness of fit metrics showed that the choice of BC method impacts both the direction of change and magnitude of nutrient loads and hydrological processes. While the Delta method performed best, it should be used with caution since it considers historical variable relationships as the basis for predictions, which may not hold true under future climate. Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) and Multivariate Bias Correction N-dimensional probability density function transform (MBCn) BC methods also performed well and work well for non-stationary climate scenarios. Furthermore, results suggest that February-July cumulative load in the Maumee basin is likely to decrease in the mid-century as runoff and snowfall decrease, and evapotranspiration increases with warming temperatures.

Rapid assessment of Dreissena population in Lake Erie using underwater videography

Dreissenid bivalves (Dreissena polymorpha and D. rostriformis bugensis) are considered the most aggressive freshwater invaders inflicting profound ecological and economic impacts on the waterbodies that they colonize. Severity of these impacts depends on dreissenid population sizes which vary dramatically across space and time. We developed a novel method that analyzes video recorded using a Benthic Imaging System (BIS) in near real-time to assess dreissenid distribution and density across large waterbodies and tested it on Lake Erie. Lake Erie basins differ dramatically in morphometry, turbidity, and productivity, as well as in Dreissena distribution, density, and length-frequency distribution, providing an excellent model to test the applicability of our method across large and dynamic environmental gradients. Results of rapid assessment were subsequently compared with dreissenid density obtained from Ponar grab samples collected at the same sites. In the eastern and central basins, the differences in basin-wide density estimations from BIS and Ponar were 3% and 23%, respectively. In the western basin, this method had limited application due to high turbidity and abundance of small (< 10 mm length) mussels. By substantially reducing the time required to assess dreissenids across large areas, rapid assessment could be a useful and cost-effective addition for monitoring their populations.

Water quality prospective in Twenty First Century: Status of water quality in major river basins, contemporary strategies and impediments: A review

Water quality improvement is one of the top priorities in the global agenda endorsed by United Nation. In this review manuscript, a holistic view of water quality degradation such as concerned pollutants, source of pollution, and its consequences in major river basins around the globe (at least 1 from each continent and a total of 16 basins) is presented. Additionally, nine contemporary techniques such as field scale evaluation, watershed scale evaluation, strategies to identify critical source areas, optimization strategies for placement of best management practices (BMPs), social component in watershed modeling, machine learning algorithms to address water quality problems in complex natural systems concomitant with spatial heterogeneity, establishing a total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), remote sensing in monitoring water quality, and developing water quality index are discussed. Next, the existing barriers to improve water quality are classified into primary and secondary impediments. A detail discussion of three primary impediments (climate change, urbanization and industrial activities, and agriculture) and ten secondary impediments (availability of water quality data, complexity of system, lack of skilled person, environmental legislation, fragmented mandate, limitation in resources, environmental awareness, resistance to change, alteration of nutrient ratio by river damming, and emerging pollutants) are illustrated. Finally, considering all the existing knowledge gaps pertaining to contemporary strategies, a future direction of water quality research is outlined to significantly improve the water quality around the globe.

Nutrient Load Mitigation with Wintertime Cover as Estimated by the INCA Model

Increased nutrient loading causes deterioration of receiving surface waters in areas of intensive agriculture. While nitrate and particulate phosphorus load can be efficiently controlled by reducing tillage frequency and increasing vegetation cover, many field studies have shown simultaneously increased loading of bioavailable phosphorus. In the latest phase of the Rural Programme of EU agri-environmental measures, the highest potential to reduce the nutrient loading to receiving waters were the maximum limits for fertilization of arable crops and retaining plant cover on fields with, e.g., no-till methods and uncultivated nature management fields. Due to the latter two measures, the area of vegetation cover has increased since 1995, suggesting clear effects on nutrient loading in the catchment scale as well. We modeled the effectiveness of agri-environmental measures to reduce phosphorus and nitrogen loads to waters and additionally tested the performance of the dynamic, process-based INCA-P (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments—Phosphorus) model to simulate P dynamics in an agricultural catchment. We concluded that INCA-P was able to simulate both fast (immediate) and slow (non-immediate) processes that influence P loading from catchments. Based on our model simulations, it was also evident that no-till methods had increased bioavailable P load to receiving waters, even though total P and total N loading were reduced.

Characterization of sedimentary phosphorus in Lake Erie and on-site quantification of internal phosphorus loading

Lake Erie harmful algal blooms and hypoxia are two major environmental problems, and have severe impacts on human health, aquatic ecosystems, and the economy. However, little is known about internal loading of phosphorus (P) from sediments, which pose a challenge for assessing the efficacy of current conservation measures on the improvement of lake water quality. A modified Hedley's extraction procedure was employed to analyze representative sediment samples collected from the Lake Erie basin for assessing sedimentary P stock, potential availability for release into lake water, and internal P loading. Inorganic and organic P in the sediments were characterized by sequential extractions in H₂O, 0.5 M NaHCO₃, 0.1 M NaOH, and 1.0 M HCl, respectively. In the 0 - 10 cm sediment, total P stock was 172, 191, and 170 metric tons km^-2 in the western, central, and eastern basins, respectively. Sedimentary P seems unlikely to contribute to internal P loading in the western basin, while in the eastern basin it can potentially contribute to an internal loading of 359 metric tons P yr^-1. In the central basin, 41% of organic P, 15% of non-HCl extractable inorganic P, and 9.7% of residual P in the 0 - 10 cm sediment is potentially available for release into lake water; in the 10 - 20 cm sediment, organic P extracted by NaHCO₃ and NaOH is also partially available. The central basin potentially contributes to internal P loading at a total amount of 10,599 metric tons yr^-1. Internal P loading may not contribute to HABs in the western basin, but it can cause and maintain hypoxia in the central basin and delay the recovery of lake water quality for a lengthy time period in response to external P reduction measures.

Impact of stacked conservation practices on phosphorus and sediment export at the catchment scale

Best management practices (BMPs) are effective in reducing nutrient and sediment export, but further understanding of the benefits of the stacked BMPs is needed. This catchment-scale study was established to evaluate the impact of hydrology and BMPs on phosphorus (P) and sediment losses. Two adjacent catchments, one with a lower level of BMP adoption (Low-BMP #11) and one with a higher level (High-BMP #12), were compared for total P (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) export. The BMPs include nutrient management plans, reduced tillage, grassed waterways, terraces, and perennial vegetation. The TP event-flow-weighted (EFW) concentration was significantly higher at Low-BMP #11 (0.293 mg L^-1) than at High-BMP #12 (0.069 mg L^-1). There was no significant difference in TP base-flow-weighted (BFW) concentrations between Low-BMP #11 (0.035 mg L^-1) and High-BMP #12 (0.037 mg L^-1). The TSS-EFW (148.0 vs. 18.6 mg L^-1) and TSS-BFW (13.3 vs. 6.9 mg L^-1) concentrations were also higher at Low-BMP #11 than at High-BMP #12. High-BMP #12 had lower TP (0.36 vs. 0.59 kg ha^-1 yr^-1) and TSS (253 vs. 1,961 kg ha^-1 yr^-1) loading than Low-BMP #11. The lower TP export at High-BMP #12 was likely attributed to the effectiveness of stacked erosion control BMPs and nutrient management plans. Overall, lower P and sediment loading was observed when a greater areal extent of stacked practices was implemented at the catchment level. This finding provides vital information to encourage wider BMP adoption at the watershed scale.

Where Have All the Nutrients Gone? Long-Term Decoupling of Inputs and Outputs in the Willamette River Watershed, Oregon, United States

Better documentation and understanding of long-term temporal dynamics of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in watersheds is necessary to support effective water quality management, in part because studies have identified time lags between terrestrial nutrient balances and water quality. We present annual time series data from 1969 to 2012 for terrestrial N and P sources and monthly data from 1972 to 2013 for river N and P for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, United States. Inputs to the watershed increased by factors of 3 for N and 1.2 for P. Synthetic fertilizer inputs increased in total and relative importance over time, while sewage inputs decreased. For N, increased fertilizer application was not matched by a proportionate increase in crop harvest; N use efficiency decreased from 69% to 38%. P use efficiency increased from 52% to 67%. As nutrient inputs to terrestrial systems increased, river concentrations and loads of total N, total P, and dissolved inorganic P decreased, and annual nutrient loads were strongly related to discharge. The N:P ratio of both sewage and fertilizer doubled over time but there was no similar trend in riverine export; river N:P concentrations declined dramatically during storms. River nutrient export over time was related to hydrology and waste discharge, with relatively little influence of watershed balances, suggesting that accumulation within soils or groundwater over time is mediating watershed export. Simply managing yearly nutrient balances is unlikely to improve water quality; rather, many factors must be considered, including soil and groundwater storage capacity, and gaseous loss pathways.

Impact factors and mechanisms of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) losses from agricultural fields: A review and synthesis study in the Lake Erie basin

Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus (DRP) losses from agricultural fields promote algae growth in water bodies, and may increase the risk of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). Using existing data from the Lake Erie Basin, we applied multiple regression analysis to better understand the impacts of both site-specific conditions (e.g., soil types/properties) and management practices (e.g., Agricultural Conservation Practices [ACP]) on annual DRP losses in subsurface and surface runoff. Results showed that soil properties significantly impact DRP losses. Greater DRP losses were associated with increased soil pH and Soil Test Phosphorus (STP). By contrast, soil organic matter (SOM) was inversely correlated with DRP losses. Soil clay content was also inversely correlated with DRP subsurface losses, but had no impact on DRP surface losses. The ACPs evaluated had varied effectiveness on DRP loss reduction. Cropping systems involving soybean could reduce DRP subsurface losses, whereas winter cover crops could cause unintended DRP subsurface losses. Cropping systems involving soybean and cover crops, however, had no impact on DRP surface losses. In addition, no-till and conservation tillage also enhanced DRP losses compared to conventional tillage, particularly for soils with high SOM and/or high clay content. Precipitation amount and fertilizer application rate significantly increased DRP surface losses as expected. Fertilizer application rate, however, had no impact on DRP subsurface losses. The impact of precipitation amount on DRP subsurface losses depends on STP levels. Precipitation amount significantly increases DRP subsurface losses when STP is higher (>41 mg kg-1 in this analysis). The optimal STP level for crop growth is 30 to 50 mg kg-1. Results from this study help us to better understand DRP losses and the effectiveness of ACPs for controlling them. We suggest taking soil surveys and soil tests into consideration when designing and/or implementing ACPs to manage DRP losses. Furthermore, the method we used for this study could be applied to other agricultural regions to investigate impacts of site-specific conditions and management practices on water quality.

Laboratory investigation of phosphorus loss with snowmelt and rainfall runoff from a Steppe wetland catchment

Phosphorus (P) losses from terrestrial soils contribute to eutrophication of surface waters. As priority non-point source pollution ways, rainfall runoff (RS₁) and snowmelt runoff (RS₂) are the main carrier of P loss from terrestrial ecosystem. The aim of this study was to investigate the similarities and differences between P loss with RS₁ and RS₂ of the same soil type. Six types of soil were used in this experiment. Results have shown that 1), Different types of soil have different P loss with RS₁ and RS₂ under different slope, and the changes ranged from 0.003 to 0.370 mg L^-1. 2), The effects of soil type, slope and runoff type on P loss with surface runoff was not independent, both individual effects of all factors and their interaction with the other two factors effected the P loss with runoff. 3), In our experiment, some soils showed no significant difference between P content in RS₁ and RS₂. In some soils, P loss with RS₁ was higher than that with RS₂ while the opposite conclusion was showed in Bog soil (BS) which with higher soil water content. 4), The P loss with RS₁ and RS₂ of different soils were both mainly affected by soil water content (SW), Olsen-P content (OP) and soil organic matter content (OM). These results can help us understand the P loss with different patterns of surface runoff better and are expected to provide pertinent opinions on the analysis of P loss with runoff and its influencing factors of grassland soils.

Midwestern cropping system effects on drainage water quality and crop yields

Grain producers are challenged to maximize crop production while utilizing nutrients efficiently and minimizing negative impacts on water quality. There is a particular concern about nutrient export to the Gulf of Mexico via loss from subsurface drainage systems. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of crop rotation, tillage, crop residue removal, swine manure applications, and cereal rye (Secale cereale L.) cover crops on nitrate-N (NO3 -N) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) loss via subsurface drainage. The study was evaluated from 2008 through 2015 using 36 0.4-ha plots outfitted with a subsurface drainage water quality monitoring system. Results showed that when swine manure was applied before both corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], drainage water had significantly higher 8-yr-average flow-weighted NO3 -N concentrations compared with swine manure applied before corn only in a corn-soybean rotation. The lowest NO3 -N loss was 15.2 kg N ha-1  yr-1 from a no-till corn-soybean treatment with rye cover crop and spring application of urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) to corn. The highest NO3 -N loss was 29.5 kg N ha-1  yr-1 from swine manure applied to both corn and soybean. A rye cover crop reduced NO3 -N loss, whereas tillage and residue management had little impact on NO3 -N loss. Losses of TRP averaged <32 g P ha-1  yr-1 from all treatments. Corn yield was negatively affected by both no-till management and cereal rye cover crops. Results showed that cropping management affected N leaching but impacts on P leaching were minimal.

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering Issues and Emerging Concerns for Agriculture

Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000-km watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15-yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change.

Climate Change and Nutrient Loading in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Warming Can Counteract a Wetter Future

In the past 20 years, Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of harmful algal blooms and hypoxia driven by increased nutrient loading from its agriculturally dominated watersheds. The increase in phosphorus loading, specifically the dissolved reactive portion, has been attributed to a combination of changing climate and agricultural management. While many management practices and strategies have been identified to reduce phosphorus loads, the impacts of future climate remain uncertain. This is particularly the case for the Great Lakes region because many global climate models do not accurately represent the land-lake interactions that govern regional climate. For this study, we used midcentury (2046-2065) climate projections from one global model and four regional dynamically downscaled models as drivers for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool configured for the Maumee River watershed, the source of almost 50% of Lake Erie's Western Basin phosphorus load. Our findings suggest that future warming may lead to less nutrient runoff due to increased evapotranspiration and decreased snowfall, despite projected moderate increases in intensity and overall amount of precipitation. Results highlight the benefits of considering multiple environmental drivers in determining the fate of nutrients in the environment and demonstrate a need to improve approaches for climate change assessment using watershed models.

Land cover impacts on storm flow suspended solid and nutrient concentrations in southwest Ohio streams

Impacts between urban and agricultural land cover on storm flow water quality are poorly understood for the Eastern Corn Belt Ecoregion in SW Ohio. Storm flow water samples were collected from May 2017 to October 2017 across seven SW Ohio watersheds which ranged in urban land cover from 6% to 92% and in agricultural land cover from 4% to 70%. Two watersheds contained water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs). Percent agricultural land cover in a watershed and storm magnitude were primary explanatory variables for total suspended solid and total phosphorus concentrations. Total nitrogen, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations were primarily explained by the presence of WRRFs and percent agricultural land cover. Increased dissolved nutrient concentrations in watersheds with WRRFs indicate that WRRFs in the study area are ineffectively removing nitrate and phosphate from effluent. Results suggest that to improve water quality during storm flows, additional management efforts need to be focused on agricultural watersheds and WRRFs. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Storm flow water quality in the study area is significantly affected by land cover, WRRF Q, and storm Q. TSS and TP concentrations are best explained by percent of agricultural land cover in a watershed and magnitude of storms. TN, NO₃ -N, and PO 4 3 -P concentrations are best explained by WRRF Q, followed by the percent agricultural land cover. This study shows that agricultural land cover and WRRFs play a significant role in water quality degradation in SW Ohio.

Stream Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loads Are Differentially Affected by Storm Events and the Difference May Be Exacerbated by Conservation Tillage

Storm events disproportionately mobilize dissolved phosphorus (P) compared to nitrogen (N), contributing to reduction in load N:P. In agricultural watersheds, conservation tillage may lead to even further declines in load N:P due to dissolved P accumulation in the top soil layers. Due to an increase in this management activity, we were interested in the impacts of conservation tillage on N and P loads during storm events. Using a 20 year data set of nutrient loads to a hypereutrophic reservoir, we observed disproportionately increasing P loads relative to base flow during storm events, whereas N loads were proportional to discharge. We also observed a change in that relationship, i.e., even greater P load relative to base flow with more conservation tillage in the watershed. This suggests conservation tillage may contribute to significantly reduced N:P loads during storms with potential implications for the water quality of receiving water bodies.

Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus Loads to Western Lake Erie: The Hidden Influence of Nanoparticles

Increased dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) fluxes in the Maumee River in the Western Lake Erie watershed have been cited as a cause of recent hypoxia and toxic algal blooms in Western Lake Erie. Dissolved reactive P is operationally defined as the molybdate-reactive P that passes through a 0.45-μm filter. Unfortunately, this 0.45-μm cutoff is not based on solute chemistry; rather, it is based on tradition dating back to the 1940s. This dissolved versus particulate operationally defined threshold may be limiting scientific understanding of the transport of reactive P in the Lake Erie watershed (and beyond). Naturally occurring nanoparticles smaller than 0.45 μm can pass through filters, inflating DRP values, as has been suggested by studies in other watersheds. Transmission electron microscopy of filtered samples from the Maumee River revealed nanoparticles of various mineralogy, which are rich in P. By analyzing public data, we estimate that approximately half of the DRP flux in the Maumee River is not truly dissolved orthophosphate; it is instead particulate P that has passed through 0.45-μm filters. We also conducted a centrifugation experiment on previously filtered samples that likewise removed 40% of DRP and 75% of Fe. The influence of nanoparticles on DRP loads to Lake Erie has implications, including (i) helping to elucidate where reactive P originates on the landscape, (ii) designing best management practices, and (iii) improving our models of ecological response of nonpoint P loading.

Recent trends in nutrient and sediment loading to coastal areas of the conterminous U.S.: Insights and global context

Coastal areas in the U.S. and worldwide have experienced massive population and land-use changes contributing to significant degradation of coastal ecosystems. Excess nutrient pollution causes coastal ecosystem degradation, and both regulatory and management efforts have targeted reducing nutrient and sediment loading to coastal rivers. Decadal trends in flow-normalized nutrient and sediment loads were determined for 95 monitoring locations on 88 U.S. coastal rivers, including tributaries of the Great Lakes, between 2002 and 2012 for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sediment. N and P loading from urban watersheds generally decreased between 2002 and 2012. In contrast, N and P trends in agricultural watersheds were variable indicating uneven progress in decreasing nutrient loading. Coherent decreases in N loading from agricultural watersheds occurred in the Lake Erie basin, but limited benefit is expected from these changes because P is the primary driver of degradation in the lake. Nutrient loading from undeveloped watersheds was low, but increased between 2002 and 2012, possibly indicating degradation of coastal watersheds that are minimally affected by human activities. Regional differences in trends were evident, with stable nutrient loads from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico, but commonly decreasing N loads and increasing P loads in Chesapeake Bay. Compared to global rivers, coastal rivers of the conterminous U.S have somewhat lower TN yields and slightly higher TP yields, but similarities exist among land use, nutrient sources, and changes in nutrient loads. Despite widespread decreases in N loading in coastal watersheds, recent N:P ratios remained elevated compared to historic values in many areas. Additional progress in reducing N and P loading to U.S. coastal waters, particularly outside of urban areas, would benefit coastal ecosystems.

Point sources and agricultural practices control spatial-temporal patterns of orthophosphate in tributaries to Chesapeake Bay

Orthophosphate (PO₄) is the most bioavailable form of phosphorus (P). Excess PO₄ may cause harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems. A major restoration effort is underway for Chesapeake Bay (CB) to reduce P, nitrogen, and sediment loading to CB. Although PO₄ cycling and delivery to streams has been characterized in small-scale studies, regional drivers of PO₄ patterns remain poorly understood because most water quality trend assessment focus on total P. Moreover, these trend assessments are usually at an annual timestep. To address this research gap, we analyzed PO₄ patterns over a 9-year period at 53 monitoring stations across the CB watershed to: 1) characterize the role of PO₄ in total P fluxes and trends; 2) describe spatial and temporal patterns of PO₄ concentrations across seasons and streamflow; and 3) explore factors explaining these patterns. Agricultural watersheds exported the most total P compared with watersheds under different land uses (e.g., urban or forest), with PO₄ comprising up to 50% of those exports. Although PO₄ exports are declining at many sites, some agricultural regions are experiencing increasing trends at a rate sufficient to drive total P trends. Regression modeling results suggest that point source load reductions are likely responsible for decreasing PO₄ concentrations observed at many sites. Watersheds with more Conservation Reserve Program enrollment had lower summer PO₄ concentrations, highlighting the effectiveness of this practice. Manure inputs strongly predicted PO₄ concentrations at high flows across all seasons. Both manure applications and conservation tillage were correlated with changes in PO₄ concentrations at high flow, suggesting these activities could contribute to increasing PO₄ concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of point source control for reducing PO₄ exports and underscores the need for management strategies to target sources, practices, and landscape factors determining PO₄ loss from soils where manure inputs remain high.

Modeling the Impacts of Manure on Phosphorus Loss in Surface Runoff and Subsurface Drainage

Simulation of phosphorus (P) transfer from manured agricultural lands to water bodies via surface runoff and subsurface drainage is potentially of great help in evaluating the risks and effects of eutrophication under a range of best management practice scenarios. However, it remains a challenge since few models are capable of providing a reasonably accurate prediction of P losses under manure treatment. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was applied to simulate the impacts on dissolved reactive P (DRP) losses through surface runoff and subsurface drainage from a solid cattle manure-amended corn ( L.)-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation on a clay loam soil (Vertisol) located in the Lake Erie region. Simulations of DRP loss in surface runoff and tile drainage were satisfactory; however, EPIC did not consider DRP loss directly from manure, weakening its accuracy in the prediction of DRP loss in surface runoff. Having previously drawn on EPIC-predicted surface runoff to initiate SurPhos (Surface Phosphorus and Runoff Model) predictions of DRP losses strictly in surface runoff, no comparison had been made of differences in manure application impacts on EPIC- or SurPhos-predicted DRP losses-accordingly, this was assessed. The SurPhos improved the estimation of DRP loss in surface runoff (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, 0.53), especially when large rain events occurred immediately after or within 6 wk of manure application. Generally, EPIC can capture the impacts of manure application on DRP loss in surface runoff and subsurface drainage; however, coupling of the EPIC and SurPhos models increased the accuracy of simulation of runoff DRP losses.

Modeling phosphorus losses from soils amended with cattle manures and chemical fertilizers

While applied manure/fertilizer is an important source of P loss in surface runoff, few models simulate the direct transfer of phosphorus (P) from soil-surface-applied manure/fertilizer to surface runoff. The SurPhos model was tested with 2008-2010 growing season daily surface runoff data from clay loam experimental plots subject to different manure/fertilizer applications. Model performance was evaluated on the basis of the coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of observed values (RSR). The model offered an acceptable performance in simulating soil labile P dynamics (R² = 0.75, NSE = 0.55, PBIAS = 10.43%, and RSR = 0.67) and dissolved reactive P (DRP) loss in surface runoff (R² ≥ 0.74 and NSE ≥ 0.69) for both solid and liquid cattle manure, as well as inorganic fertilizer. Simulated direct P loss in surface runoff from solid and liquid cattle manure accounted for 39% and 40% of total growing season DRP losses in surface runoff. To compensate for the unavailability of daily surface runoff observations under snow melt condition, the whole four years' (2008-2011) daily surface runoff predicted by EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) was used as SurPhos input. The accuracy of simulated DRP loss in surface runoff under the different manure/fertilizer treatments was acceptable (R² ≥ 0.55 and NSE ≥ 0.50). For the solid cattle manure treatment, of all annual DRP losses, 19% were derived directly from the manure. Beyond offering a reliable prediction of manure/fertilizer P loss in surface runoff, SurPhos quantified different sources of DRP loss and dynamic labile P in soil, allowing a better critical assessment of different P management measures' effectiveness in mitigating DRP losses.

Limited Dissolved Phosphorus Runoff Losses from Layered Double Hydroxide and Struvite Fertilizers in a Rainfall Simulation Study

The enrichment of P in surface waters has been linked to P runoff from agricultural fields amended with fertilizers. Novel slow-release mineral fertilizers, such as struvite and P-exchanged layered double hydroxides (LDHs), have received increasing attention for P recycling from waste streams, and these fertilizers may potentially reduce the risk of runoff losses. Here, a rainfall simulation experiment was performed to evaluate P runoff associated with the application of recycled slow-release fertilizers relative to that of a soluble fertilizer. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP), struvite, and LDH granular fertilizers were broadcasted at equal total P doses on soil packed in trays (5% slope) and covered with perennial ryegrass ( L.). Four rainfall simulation events of 30 min were performed at 1, 5, 15, and 30 d after the fertilizer application. Runoff water from the trays was collected, filtered, and analyzed for dissolved P. For the MAP treatment, P runoff losses were high in the first two rain events and leveled off in later rain events. In total, 42% of the applied P in the MAP treatment was lost due to runoff. In the slow-release fertilizer treatments, P runoff losses were limited to 1.9 (struvite) and 2.4% (LDH) of the applied doses and were more similar over the different rain events. The use of these novel P fertilizer forms could be beneficial in areas with a high risk of surface water eutrophication and a history of intensive fertilization.

Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin

Severe environmental and health impacts have been experienced in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) because of eutrophication and associated proliferation of harmful algae blooms. Efforts to improve water quality within the WLEB have been on-going for several decades. However, water quality improvements in the basin have not been realized as anticipated. In this study, factors affecting water quality within the WLEB were evaluated with a view to differentiating their impacts and informing further assessments in the basin. Over the long-term (1966-2015) and basin-wide, total annual precipitation increased significantly by about 2.4 mm/year while mean monthly streamflows also increased during the same period although the increase was not significant (p = 0.36). There was, however, a significant increase in spring streamflows during this period (p = 0.003). Patterns in water quality parameters showed significant reductions in total suspended solids (TSS) (p < 0.001) and total phosphorus (TP) (p = 0.018) while soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) increased significantly (p < 0.001), and in particular from about 1995. Results of near-term (2005-2015) analysis showed a non-significant (p = 0.262) reduction in TSS concentrations of about 0.25 mg/L/year. TP concentrations did not vary substantially during the same period while a 0.11 mg/L/year increase in nitrate and a 0.001 mg/L/year increase in SRP were observed, with increases in nitrates being significant (p = 0.013). TP and SRP concentrations, however, remained high within the basin with daily values ranging between 0.03 and 1.84 mg/L and less than 0.002-0.52 mg/L, respectively. Basin-wide, both spring precipitation and spring streamflows increased significantly during the period 2005-2015 (p < 0.001). Overall, no substantial changes in land use were observed, suggesting that water quality responses might be attributable to management. Based on recent data, corn acreage in the basin and fertilizer applied to corn increased by 33% and 10% respectively. Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs) and impoundments were also important factors due to their prevalence in the basin. Based on the analysis, changes in agricultural management, increase in spring precipitation, CSOs, legacy phosphorus, and the presence of dams were thought to present constraints to water quality improvements despite conservation efforts within the basin.

Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate-all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in 2913 lakes using nutrient and chlorophyll (Chl) observations from the Lake Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of the Northeast U.S. (LAGOS-NE), a collection of preexisting lake data mostly from state agencies. LAGOS-NE was used to quantify whether lake water quality has changed from 1990 to 2013, and whether lake-specific or regional geophysical factors were related to the observed changes. We modeled change through time using hierarchical linear models for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), stoichiometry (TN:TP), and Chl. Both the slopes (percent change per year) and intercepts (value in 1990) were allowed to vary by lake and region. Across all lakes, TN declined at a rate of 1.1% year^-1 , while TP, TN:TP, and Chl did not change. A minority (7%-16%) of individual lakes had changing nutrients, stoichiometry, or Chl. Of those lakes that changed, we found differences in the geospatial variables that were most related to the observed change in the response variables. For example, TN and TN:TP trends were related to region-level drivers associated with atmospheric deposition of N; TP trends were related to both lake and region-level drivers associated with climate and land use; and Chl trends were found in regions with high air temperature at the beginning of the study period. We conclude that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved.

Characteristics of dissolved organic phosphorus inputs to freshwater lakes: A case study of Lake Erhai, southwest China

In this study, we made the first estimate of the annual dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) load to Lake Erhai, a typical mesotrophic-eutrophic lake in China. We also evaluated what proportion of DOP was bioavailable using enzymatically hydrolyzable phosphorus (EHP), and further assessed the potential impacts of DOP on lake water quality. We estimated that the annual DOP load into Lake Erhai accounted for nearly 50% of total dissolved phosphorus, while EHP accounted for about 30% of the bioavailable phosphorus (BAP) pool. The DOP load increased and accounted for a greater proportion of total dissolved phosphorus and BAP loads during the wet season, and helped maintain algal blooms. Inflowing rivers were the main source of DOP with high bioavailability to Lake Erhai, especially in the wet season. The EHP concentrations of the inflowing rivers were positively correlated with algal biomass. The observation suggests that, as a significant source of BAP, the contribution of the DOP load to eutrophication of the lake should not be ignored, especially given the low soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations in the lake water during the algal biomass period. Information on the contributions from different pollution sources is needed to support the development of effective P pollution control strategies. Short-term strategies to protect Lake Erhai include better management of the inflowing rivers, especially in the northern part during the wet season, while, over the long-term, strategies to decrease P release from lake sediments should be considered.

Midwestern US Farmers Perceive Crop Advisers as Conduits of Information on Agricultural Conservation Practices

Nonpoint source pollution from agricultural land uses continues to pose one of the most significant threats to water quality in the US, with measurable impacts across local, regional, and national scales. The impact and the influence of targeted conservation efforts are directly related to the degree to which farmers are familiar with and trust the entities providing the information and/or outreach. Recent research suggests that farmers consistently rank independent and retail-affiliated crop advisers as among the most trusted and influential sources for agronomic information, but little is understood about whether farmers are willing to receive advice from crop advisers on the use of practices that conserve soil and water, and, if so, whether crop advisers will be perceived as influential. We present survey data from farmers (n = 1461) in Michigan's Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron) watershed to explore these questions. Results suggest that farmers view crop advisers as trustworthy sources of information about conservation, and influential on management practices that have large conservation implications. We discuss these results, along with perceived barriers and opportunities to crop advisers partnering with traditional conservation agencies to enhance the impact of voluntary conservation programs.

Shift in bacterioplankton diversity and structure: Influence of anthropogenic disturbances along the Yarlung Tsangpo River on the Tibetan Plateau, China

River systems have critical roles in the natural water environment and the transportation of nutrients. Anthropogenic activities, including wastewater discharge and river damming, raise adverse impacts on ecosystem and continuum of rivers. An increasing amount of attention has been paid to riverine bacterioplankton as they make vital contributions to biogeochemical nutrient cycle. A comprehensive study was conducted on the bacterioplankton community along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which is the longest plateau river in China and is suffering from various anthropogenic impacts. The results indicated that nutrient variations corresponded to anthropogenic activities, and silica, nitrogen and phosphorus were retained by the dam. River damming influenced the biomass and diversity of the bacterioplankton, but significant alterations in the community structure were not observed between upstream and downstream of the dam. Moreover, the spatial distribution of the bacterioplankton community changed gradually along the river, and the dominant bacterioplankton in the upstream, midstream and downstream portions of the river were Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria, respectively. Soluble reactive phosphorus, elevation, ammonium nitrogen, velocity and turbidity were the main environmental factors that shape the bacterioplankton community. Our study offers the first insights into the variation of a bacterioplankton community of a large river in plateau region.

Soil phosphorus loss in tile drainage water from long-term conventional- and non-tillage soils of Ontario with and without compost addition

Recent ascertainment of tile drainage a predominant pathway of soil phosphorus (P) loss, along with the rise in concentration of soluble P in the Lake Erie, has led to a need to re-examine the impacts of agricultural practices. A three-year on-farm study was conducted to assess P loss in tile drainage water under long-term conventional- (CT) and non-tillage (NT) as influenced by yard waste leaf compost (LC) application in a Brookston clay loam soil. The effects of LC addition on soil P loss in tile drainage water varied depending on P forms and tillage systems. Under CT, dissolved reactive P (DRP) loss with LC addition over the study period was 765g P ha^-1, 2.9 times higher than CT without LC application, due to both a 50% increase in tile drainage flow volume and a 165% increase in DRP concentration. Under NT, DRP loss in tile drainage water with LC addition was 1447gPha^-1, 5.3 times greater than that for NT without LC application; this was solely caused by a 564% increase in DRP concentration. However, particulate P loads in tile drainage water with LC application remained unchanged, relative to non-LC application, regardless of tillage systems. Consequently, LC addition led to an increase in total P loads in tile drainage water by 57 and 69% under CT and NT, respectively. The results indicate that LC application may become an environmental concern due to increased DRP loss, particularly under NT.

Increased Soluble Phosphorus Loads to Lake Erie: Unintended Consequences of Conservation Practices?

Cumulative daily load time series show that the early 2000s marked a step-change increase in riverine soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads entering the Western Lake Erie Basin from three major tributaries: the Maumee, Sandusky, and Raisin Rivers. These elevated SRP loads have been sustained over the last 12 yr. Empirical regression models were used to estimate the contributions from (i) increased runoff from changing weather and precipitation patterns and (ii) increased SRP delivery (the combined effects of increased source availability and/or increased transport efficiency of labile phosphorus [P] fractions). Approximately 65% of the SRP load increase after 2002 was attributable to increased SRP delivery, with higher runoff volumes accounting for the remaining 35%. Increased SRP delivery occurred concomitantly with declining watershed P budgets. However, within these watersheds, there have been long-term, largescale changes in land management: reduced tillage to minimize erosion and particulate P loss, and increased tile drainage to improve field operations and profitability. These practices can inadvertently increase labile P fractions at the soil surface and transmission of soluble P via subsurface drainage. Our findings suggest that changes in agricultural practices, including some conservation practices designed to reduce erosion and particulate P transport, may have had unintended, cumulative, and converging impacts contributing to the increased SRP loads, reaching a critical threshold around 2002.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.