The steel scrap age

Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle

Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminum industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, the penetration of these technologies is often delayed due to the long lifetimes of the industrial assets currently in use. Existing models and scenarios for the aluminum sector omit this inertia and therefore potentially overestimate the realistic mitigation potential. Here, we introduce a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model for the global primary (smelters) and secondary (melting furnaces) aluminum production capacities. In business-as-usual scenarios, we project emissions from smelters and melting furnaces to rise from 710 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2020 to 920-1400 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2050. Rapid implementation of inert anodes in smelters can reduce emissions by 14% by 2050. However, a limitation of emissions compatible with a 2 °C scenario requires combined action: (1) an improvement of collection and recycling systems to absorb all the available postconsumer scrap, (2) a fast and wide deployment of low-carbon technologies, and (3) a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity sources. These measures need to be implemented even faster in scenarios with a stronger increase in aluminum demand. Lock-in effects are likely: building new capacity using conventional technologies will compromise climate mitigation efforts and would require premature retirement of industrial assets.

Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand

The current decarbonization strategy for the steel and cement industries is inherently dependent on the build-out of infrastructure, including for CO2 transport and storage, renewable electricity, and green hydrogen. However, the deployment of this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58-65% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22-56% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.

Global green hydrogen-based steel opportunities surrounding high quality renewable energy and iron ore deposits

The steel sector currently accounts for 7% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions and requires deep reform to disconnect from fossil fuels. Here, we investigate the market competitiveness of one of the widely considered decarbonisation routes for primary steel production: green hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron ore followed by electric arc furnace steelmaking. Through analysing over 300 locations by combined use of optimisation and machine learning, we show that competitive renewables-based steel production is located nearby the tropic of Capricorn and Cancer, characterised by superior solar with supplementary onshore wind, in addition to high-quality iron ore and low steelworker wages. If coking coal prices remain high, fossil-free steel could attain competitiveness in favourable locations from 2030, further improving towards 2050. Large-scale implementation requires attention to the abundance of suitable iron ore and other resources such as land and water, technical challenges associated with direct reduction, and future supply chain configuration.

What to Do about Plastics? Lessons from a Study of United Kingdom Plastics Flows

Plastics are one of the most widely used materials on the planet, owing to their usefulness, durability, and relatively low cost. Yet, making, using, and disposing of plastics create important environmental impacts, most notably greenhouse gas emissions and waste pollution. Reducing these impacts while still enjoying the benefits of plastic use requires an integrated assessment of all of the life cycles of plastics. This has rarely been attempted due to the wide variety of polymers and the lack of knowledge on the final uses and applications of plastics. Using trade statistics for 464 product codes, we have mapped the flows of the 11 most widely used polymers from production into six end-use applications for the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017. With a dynamic material flow analysis, we have anticipated demand and waste generation until 2050. We found that the demand for plastics seems to have saturated in the UK, with an annual demand of 6 Mt, responsible for approximately 26 Mt CO₂e/a. Owing to a limited recycling capacity in the UK, only 12% of UK plastic waste is recycled domestically, leading to 21% of the waste being exported, labeled as recycling, but mostly to countries with poor practices of waste management. Increasing recycling capacity in the UK could both reduce GHG emissions and prevent waste pollution. This intervention should be complemented with improved practices in the production of primary plastics, which currently accounts for 80% of UK plastic emissions.

The molecular structure effects of starches and starch phosphates in the reverse flotation of quartz from hematite

Native starches and their phosphates with various molecular structures was introduced as the depressant to realize the flotation of quartz from hematite in this study. The present starch phosphates (WSP, NSP, GSP) were modified by the reaction between phosphate and three different corn starches (WS, NS, G50). The synthesis and characterization of starch phosphates found that starch with high amylopectin content was easily modified into starch phosphates. Microflotation tests showed that starch phosphates exhibited stronger depressing abilities of hematite flotation than native starches. Zeta potential measurement showed that both starches and starch phosphates could positively shift the zeta potential of hematite, while starch phosphates had more effects than starches. XPS and MDS indicated that the chemisorption occurred between Fe of hematite surface and CO groups of starch-based depressants. In addition, starch phosphates could adsorb onto the hematite surface through PO groups. MDS also presented that the adsorption strength of starch phosphate was mainly determined by the type and number of generating chelating rings, and the molecular structure of starch significantly affected the formation of chelate rings. The proposed adsorption model insights will significantly promote the development of starch-based depressants for iron ore flotation and other mineral processing applications.

Electrorefining for direct decarburization of molten iron

Recycling iron and steel is critical for environmental sustainability and essential to close material loops in circular economics. A major challenge is to produce high-value products and to control impurities like carbon in the face of stringent consumer requirements and volatile markets. Here, we develop an electrorefining process that directly decarburizes molten iron by imposing an electromotive force between it and a slag electrolyte. Upon anodic polarization, oxide anions from the slag discharge directly on carbon dissolved in molten iron, evolving gaseous carbon monoxide. In a striking departure from conventional practice that highly relies on reaction with solubilized oxygen, here electrorefining achieves decarburization by direct interfacial reaction. We demonstrate that this technique produces ultra-low-carbon steels and recovers silicon as a by-product at the cathode, requiring a low energy input and no reagents. We expect this process to be scalable and integrable with secondary steel mills.

Effect of Cu on Nitriding of α-Fe

Nitriding of Fe-1 wt.% Cu and Fe-5 wt.% Cu alloys at 813 K leads to the formation of predominantly the γ′-iron nitride phase (γ′-Fe4N) when using nitriding conditions, which lead to pronounced formation of ε-iron nitride phase (ε-Fe3N1+x) upon nitriding of pure α-Fe. Energy dispersive X-ray analysis reveals that the developing γ′ can attain a Cu content corresponding to that of the base material. In contrast, tiny amounts of ε-nitride that eventually develop contain considerably less Cu. The microstructure implies that the formation of the ε-nitride requires long-range substitutional interdiffusion to achieve the Cu partitioning. These observations were interpreted in terms of a significantly higher solubility of Cu in the γ′ phase than in the ε phase, which is explainable by the phases’ crystal structures. The observations were rationalized in terms of schematic Fe–Cu–N phase diagrams valid for 813 K.

A Modular Tool to Support Data Management for LCA in Industry: Methodology, Application and Potentialities

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) computes potential environmental impacts of a product or process. However, LCAs in the industrial sector are generally delivered through static yearly analyses which cannot capture any temporal dynamics of inventory data. Moreover, LCA must deal with differences across background models, Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods and specific rules of environmental labels, together with their developments over time and the difficulty of the non-expert organization staff to effectively interpret LCA results. A case study which discusses how to manage these barriers and their relevance is currently lacking. Here, we fill this gap by proposing a general methodology to develop a modular tool which integrates spreadsheets, LCA software, coding and visualization modules that can be independently modified while leaving the architecture unchanged. We test the tool within the ORI Martin secondary steelmaking plant, finding that it can manage (i) a high amount of primary foreground data to build a dynamic LCA; (ii) different background models, LCIA methods and environmental labels rules; (iii) interactive visualizations. Then, we outline the relevance of these capabilities since (i) temporal dynamics of foreground inventory data affect monthly LCA results, which may vary by ±14% around the yearly value; (ii) background datasets, LCIA methods and environmental label rules may alter LCA results by 20%; (iii) more than 105 LCA values can be clearly visualized through dynamically updated dashboards. Our work paves the way towards near-real-time LCA monitoring of single product batches, while contextualizing the company sustainability targets within global environmental trends.

Compilation of an economy-wide material flow database for 14 stock-building materials in 177 countries from 1900 to 2016

International datasets on economy-wide material flows currently fail to comprehensively cover the quantitatively most important materials and countries, to provide centennial coverage and to differentiate between processing stages. These data gaps hamper research and policy on resource use. Herein, we present and document the data processing and compilation procedures applied to develop a novel economy-wide database of primary stock-building material flows systematically covering 177 countries from 1900- 2016. The main methodological novelty is the consistent integration of material flow accounting and analysis principles and thereby addresses limitations in terms of transparency, data quality and uncertainty treatment. The database systematically discerns four processing stages from raw materials extraction, to processing of raw and semi-finished products, to manufacturing of stock-building materials. Included materials are concrete, asphalt, bricks, timber products, paper, iron & steel, aluminium, copper, lead, zinc, other metals, plastics, container and flat glass. The database is compiled using international and national data sources, using a transparent and consistent 10-step procedure, as well as a systematic uncertainty assessment. Apart from a detailed documentation of the data compilation, validations of the database using data from previous studies and additional uncertainty estimates are presented.

• Systematically compiled historical database of primary stock-building material flows for 177 countries.

• Consistent integration of economy-wide material flow accounting and detailed material flow analysis principles.

• Methodological enhancements in terms of transparency, data quality and uncertainty treatment.

The long term effects of carbon trading markets in China: Evidence from energy intensive industries

Carbon trading scheme is an instrument adopted in many countries of the world to reduce CO₂ emissions. As an important way of environmental regulation, whether it can reduce the emissions and promote the economic development at the same time needs further investigation. This paper tests whether the Porter Hypothesis is true in China's carbon emissions trading scheme for energy intensive industries. Using provincial-level, industrial-level and firm-level data, we construct a DEA model that can incorporate the emissions trading behavior among different decision making units to show that the carbon emissions trading scheme can only reduce the CO₂ emissions but cannot increase the output significantly. That is, the carbon intensity is decreased. The reason is that the carbon trading scheme is conducive to the improvement of the production efficiency, and firm-level research and development input increases after carbon trading scheme. These findings are robust to several robustness checks. Our paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the carbon emissions trading scheme in reducing emissions. An external technological breakthrough is needed if the win-win situation of reducing CO₂ emissions and promoting economic development simultaneously is wanted to be achieved.

Bottom-up estimates of deep decarbonization of U.S. manufacturing in 2050

The world needs to rapidly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission to stave off the risks of disastrous climate change. In particular, decarbonizing U.S. manufacturing industries is particularly challenging due to the specific process requirements. This study estimates the potential for future CO₂ emission reductions in this important sector. The analysis is a detailed accounting exercise that relies on estimates of emission-reduction potential from other studies and applies those potentials to the manufacturing sector using a bottom-up approach. The actions are grouped into four "pillars" that support deep decarbonization of manufacturing (DDM): Energy Efficiency, Material Efficiency, Industry-Specific, and Power Grid. Based on this bottom-up approach, the analysis shows that an 86% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the Reference Case is feasible. No single pillar dominates DDM, although opportunities vary widely by sub-sector. The analysis shows that a strategy incorporating a broad set of elements from each pillar can be effective instead of relying on any single pillar. Some pillars, such as Energy Efficiency and Material Efficiency, have wide applicability; others have key niche roles that are Industry-Specific; the Power Grid pillar requires interaction between grid decarbonization and industry action to switch from fossil fuels to zero-carbon electricity where appropriate.

China material stocks and flows account for 1978-2018

As the world's top material consumer, China has created intense pressure on national or global demand for natural resources. Building an accurate material stocks and flows account of China is a prerequisite for promoting sustainable resource management. However, there is no annually, officially published material stocks and flows data in China. Existing material stocks and flows estimates conducted by scholars exhibit great discrepancies. In this study, we create the Provincial Material Stocks and Flows Database (PMSFD) for China and its 31 provinces. This dataset describes 13 materials' stocks, demand, and scrap supply in five end-use sectors in each province during 1978-2018. PMSFD is the first version of material stocks and flows inventories in China, and its uniform estimation structure and formatted inventories offer a comprehensive foundation for future accumulation, modification, and enhancement. PMSFD contributes insight into the material metabolism, which is an important database for sustainable development as well as circular economy policy-making in China. This dataset will be updated annually.

Efficiency stagnation in global steel production urges joint supply- and demand-side mitigation efforts

Steel production is a difficult-to-mitigate sector that challenges climate mitigation commitments. Efforts for future decarbonization can benefit from understanding its progress to date. Here we report on greenhouse gas emissions from global steel production over the past century (1900-2015) by combining material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. We find that ~45 Gt steel was produced in this period leading to emissions of ~147 Gt CO₂-eq. Significant improvement in process efficiency (~67%) was achieved, but was offset by a 44-fold increase in annual steel production, resulting in a 17-fold net increase in annual emissions. Despite some regional technical improvements, the industry's decarbonization progress at the global scale has largely stagnated since 1995 mainly due to expanded production in emerging countries with high carbon intensity. Our analysis of future scenarios indicates that the expected demand expansion in these countries may jeopardize steel industry's prospects for following 1.5 °C emission reduction pathways. To achieve the Paris climate goals, there is an urgent need for rapid implementation of joint supply- and demand-side mitigation measures around the world in consideration of regional conditions.

Analysis of China’s Iron Trade Flow: Quantity, Value and Regional Pattern

Iron is an important metal material that supports the development of society and national economies. Due to the uneven distribution of resources, there is frequent trade around the world. Therefore, mastering the global flow path and trade pattern provides an essential basis for the sustainable utilization of iron and related products. Based on the artificial flow of iron in international trade, this study used the material flow analysis method to investigate this flow. Based on the data of China’s international iron trade from China Customs and the United Nations trade administration, this study systematically analyzed the structure, type, quantity, and value of iron-containing commodities in 2018. The results were as follows: (1) China was a net importer of iron and formed a trade structure of “import raw materials and export products.” (2) There was a large trade surplus in China’s iron international trade. The quality of iron exported by China was high, and the price is relatively low; therefore, countries around the world have a great dependence on the iron imported from China. (3) Compared with developed countries, China is in urgent need of high-end technologies and can only import high-tech iron products from abroad. Therefore, the value of China’s exports of iron-containing commodities is relatively low, while that of its imports is relatively high.

Reducing CO2 Emissions from U.S. Steel Consumption by 70% by 2050

The steel sector emits 25% of global industrial greenhouse gases, and the U.S. is the world's second-largest steel consumer. In this article, we determine how CO₂ emissions attributable to U.S. steel consumption can be cut by 70% by 2050. We vary four key steel cycle parameters (U.S. steel stocks per capita, recycling rate, product lifespan, and manufacturing yield) in a dynamic material flow analysis to determine a range of values for annual steel demand and the scrap available for recycling. We combine these data with steelmaking technology and trade scenarios to calculate potential U.S. steel sector emissions in each year to 2050. Only 20% of the pathways we modeled for the U.S. steel sector achieved the emissions target. Emissions in 2050 are most sensitive to the CO₂ released per kilogram of steel produced and the steel stocks per capita. Deployment of emerging low carbon steelmaking technology alone is insufficient to achieve the emissions cut; conversely, reducing stocks per capita from the current ∼11 tons/capita toward levels in the U.K. and France, ∼8 tons/capita, would enable the emissions cut to be achieved under a range of foreseeable steelmaking technology scenarios and steel cycle parameters. If action to reduce per capita steel stocks is delayed by more than five years, then it is likely infeasible for the U.S. steel sector to stay within its 2050 CO₂ budget because of the increased demand for emissions-intensive steel made from iron ore.

A General Vision for Reduction of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions from the Steel Industry

The 2018 IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) report defined the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by 2050. This will require “rapid and far-reaching transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities”. The challenge falls on all sectors, especially energy production and industry. In this regard, the recent progress and future challenges of greenhouse gas emissions and energy supply are first briefly introduced. Then, the current situation of the steel industry is presented. Steel production is predicted to grow by 25–30% by 2050. The dominant iron-making route, blast furnace (BF), especially, is an energy-intensive process based on fossil fuel consumption; the steel sector is thus responsible for about 7% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In order to take up the 2050 challenge, emissions should see significant cuts. Correspondingly, specific emissions (t CO2/t steel) should be radically decreased. Several large research programs in big steelmaking countries and the EU have been carried out over the last 10–15 years or are ongoing. All plausible measures to decrease CO2 emissions were explored here based on the published literature. The essential results are discussed and concluded. The specific emissions of “world steel” are currently at 1.8 t CO2/t steel. Improved energy efficiency by modernizing plants and adopting best available technologies in all process stages could decrease the emissions by 15–20%. Further reductions towards 1.0 t CO2/t steel level are achievable via novel technologies like top gas recycling in BF, oxygen BF, and maximal replacement of coke by biomass. These processes are, however, waiting for substantive industrialization. Generally, substituting hydrogen for carbon in reductants and fuels like natural gas and coke gas can decrease CO2 emissions remarkably. The same holds for direct reduction processes (DR), which have spread recently, exceeding 100 Mt annual capacity. More radical cut is possible via CO2 capture and storage (CCS). The technology is well-known in the oil industry; and potential applications in other sectors, including the steel industry, are being explored. While this might be a real solution in propitious circumstances, it is hardly universally applicable in the long run. More auspicious is the concept that aims at utilizing captured carbon in the production of chemicals, food, or fuels e.g., methanol (CCU, CCUS). The basic idea is smart, but in the early phase of its application, the high energy-consumption and costs are disincentives. The potential of hydrogen as a fuel and reductant is well-known, but it has a supporting role in iron metallurgy. In the current fight against climate warming, H2 has come into the “limelight” as a reductant, fuel, and energy storage. The hydrogen economy concept contains both production, storage, distribution, and uses. In ironmaking, several research programs have been launched for hydrogen production and reduction of iron oxides. Another global trend is the transfer from fossil fuel to electricity. “Green” electricity generation and hydrogen will be firmly linked together. The electrification of steel production is emphasized upon in this paper as the recycled scrap is estimated to grow from the 30% level to 50% by 2050. Finally, in this review, all means to reduce specific CO2 emissions have been summarized. By thorough modernization of production facilities and energy systems and by adopting new pioneering methods, “world steel” could reach the level of 0.4–0.5 t CO2/t steel and thus reduce two-thirds of current annual emissions.

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.

Pathways for Low-Carbon Transition of the Steel Industry—A Swedish Case Study

The concept of techno-economic pathways is used to investigate the potential implementation of CO2 abatement measures over time towards zero-emission steelmaking in Sweden. The following mitigation measures are investigated and combined in three pathways: top gas recycling blast furnace (TGRBF); carbon capture and storage (CCS); substitution of pulverized coal injection (PCI) with biomass; hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H-DR); and electric arc furnace (EAF), where fossil fuels are replaced with biomass. The results show that CCS in combination with biomass substitution in the blast furnace and a replacement primary steel production plant with EAF with biomass (Pathway 1) yield CO2 emission reductions of 83% in 2045 compared to CO2 emissions with current steel process configurations. Electrification of the primary steel production in terms of H-DR/EAF process (Pathway 2), could result in almost fossil-free steel production, and Sweden could achieve a 10% reduction in total CO2 emissions. Finally, (Pathway 3) we show that increased production of hot briquetted iron pellets (HBI), could lead to decarbonization of the steel industry outside Sweden, assuming that the exported HBI will be converted via EAF and the receiving country has a decarbonized power sector.

Material Flow Analysis with Multiple Material Characteristics to Assess the Potential for Flat Steel Prompt Scrap Prevention and Diversion without Remelting

Thirty-two percent of the liquid metal used to make flat steel products in Europe does not end up in a final product. Sixty percent of this material is instead scrapped during manufacturing and the remainder during fabrication of finished steel products. Although this scrap is collected and recycled, remelting this scrap requires approximately 2 MWh/t, but some of this material could instead be diverted for use in other applications without remelting. However, this diversion depends not just on the mass of scrapped steel but also on its material characteristics. To enhance our understanding of the potential for such scrap diversion, this paper presents a novel material flow analysis of flat steel produced in Europe in 2013. This analysis considers the flow of steel characterized not only by mass but, for the first time, also by grade, thickness, and coating. The results show that thin-gauge galvanized drawing steel is the most commonly demanded steel grade across the industry, and most scrap of this grade is generated by the automotive industry. There are thus potential opportunities for preventing and diverting scrap of this grade. We discuss the role of the geometric compatibility of parts and propose tessellating blanks for various car manufacturers in the same coil of steel to increase the utilization rates of steel.

Discrete-Point Analysis of the Energy Demand of Primary versus Secondary Metal Production

The metal industry consumes large amounts of energy and contributes significantly, up to 10%, to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for mitigating the climate forcing of metal production by replacing primary production. However, the recycling rates of metals are still incomplete and, in particular, do not exist for most specialty metals. Our empirical analysis of 48 metals shows that their recycling is mainly impeded by their low concentrations. In many cases, the metal concentration in end-of-life products is lower than that in natural ores. This phenomenon inevitably raises the question of the extent to which recycling can be conducted without losing its mitigating effects on climate change. We answer this question for two example metals, tantalum and copper, within the scope of Germany, a leader in recycling. For tantalum, the results show that a further increase in the end-of-life recycling rate (EOL-RR) could contribute to minimizing the overall energy consumption and GHG emissions, despite its low concentrations in end-of-life products. The energy requirements for recycling copper from end-of-life products already reach the magnitude of those for primary production. A further increase in EOL-RR must be examined in detail to ensure mitigating effects on climate change.

Strategies for improving the sustainability of structural metals

Metallic materials have enabled technological progress over thousands of years. The accelerated demand for structural (that is, load-bearing) alloys in key sectors such as energy, construction, safety and transportation is resulting in predicted production growth rates of up to 200 per cent until 2050. Yet most of these materials require a lot of energy when extracted and manufactured and these processes emit large amounts of greenhouse gases and pollution. Here we review methods of improving the direct sustainability of structural metals, in areas including reduced-carbon-dioxide primary production, recycling, scrap-compatible alloy design, contaminant tolerance of alloys and improved alloy longevity. We discuss the effectiveness and technological readiness of individual measures and also show how novel structural materials enable improved energy efficiency through their reduced mass, higher thermal stability and better mechanical properties than currently available alloys.

Mapping the Annual Flow of Steel in the United States

A detailed understanding of material flows is needed to target increased material efficiency and circular economy. In this article, the U.S. steel flow is modeled as a series of nodes representing processes and products. An easily updatable nonlinear least squares optimization is used to reconcile the inconsistencies across 293 collated data records on flows through and between the nodes. The data come from an integrated analysis that includes top-down estimates of steel flow from trade bodies and government statistical agencies, bottom-up estimates of the steel embedded in products based on production statistics and bills of materials, and the mass of imports and exports based on international money flow. A weighting methodology is used to consistently assign confidence scores to the data, and the optimization is used to achieve mass balance and minimize the sum of the squares of the weighted residuals. The results indicate that yield improvement efforts should focus on sheet metal forming in the car industry, which accounts for nearly half of all generated fabrication scrap. The quantity of end-of-life scrap exported and land-filled is greater than the quantity of steel products imported. Increased domestic recycling of end-of-life scrap might displace around a third of these imports.

Taking Stock of Built Environment Stock Studies: Progress and Prospects

Built environment stocks (buildings and infrastructures) play multiple roles in our socio-economic metabolism: they serve as the backbone of modern societies and human well-being, drive the material cycles throughout the economy, entail temporal and spatial lock-ins on energy use and emissions, and represent an extensive reservoir of secondary materials. This review aims at providing a comprehensive and critical review of the state of the art, progress, and prospects of built environment stocks research which has boomed in the past decades. We included 249 publications published from 1985 to 2018, conducted a bibliometric analysis, and assessed the studies by key characteristics including typology of stocks (status of stock and end-use category), type of measurement (object and unit), spatial boundary and level of resolution, and temporal scope. We also highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of different estimation approaches. A comparability analysis of existing studies shows a clearly higher level of stocks per capita and per area in developed countries and cities, confirming the role of urbanization and industrialization in built environment stock growth. However, more spatially refined case studies (e.g., on developing cities and nonresidential buildings) and standardization and improvement of methodology (e.g., with geographic information system and architectural knowledge) and data (e.g., on material intensity and lifetime) would be urgently needed to reveal more robust conclusions on the patterns, drivers, and implications of built environment stocks. Such advanced knowledge on built environment stocks could foster societal and policy agendas such as urban sustainability, circular economy, climate change, and United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Iron Carbonate Beneficiation Through Reductive Calcination - Parameter Optimization to Maximize Methane Formation

Direct iron carbonate reduction through reductive calcination in a hydrogen atmosphere is a high‐potential candidate for environmentally benign pig iron production. In addition to the direct formation of elemental iron in one reaction step, carbon dioxide is only partially released from the carbonate. Instead, carbon monoxide, methane, and higher hydrocarbons form as gaseous reaction products. The experimental study described here is based on Mg‐Mn substituted iron carbonate ore. First, the chemical thermodynamics of the reductive calcination of iron, magnesium, and manganese carbonate are discussed. The influence of temperature and pressure on equilibrium conversion is reviewed together with the accessible products. Results for the reductive calcination of mineral iron carbonate in a tubular reactor setup are presented. The methane yield was optimized via statistically planned design of experiments. The gauge pressure and temperature showed a statistically significant effect on the total iron carbonate conversion, as well as on carbon monoxide, and methane yield.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Calculation of Characterization Factors of Mineral Resources Considering Future Primary Resource Use Changes: A Comparison between Iron and Copper

The future availability of mineral resources has attracted much attention; therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the potential impacts of resource use on future availability is important. Although the surplus cost model is often recommended among the existing endpoint characterization models of mineral resources, it has a shortcoming as it does not consider the changes in future primary resource use. This paper introduces a new characterization model considering future primary resource use changes, due to future changes in total demand and secondary resource use. Using material flow analysis, this study estimated time-series primary resource use for iron and copper for five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and a constant total demand scenario. New characterization factors, i.e., demand change-based surplus costs (DCSC), are calculated for each resource. In all of the SSPs, the calculated DCSCs are larger than the conventional surplus costs (SC) for both iron and copper. The DCSC, relative to the SC of copper, is larger than that of iron for all of the SSPs, which suggests that the potential impacts of copper use, relative to iron, will be underestimated, unless future primary resource use changes are considered. In calculating DCSC for other resources, it is important to choose an appropriate approach for forecasting future total demands.

Quantifying Recycling and Losses of Cr and Ni in Steel Throughout Multiple Life Cycles Using MaTrace-Alloy

Alloying metals are indispensable ingredients of high quality alloy steel such as austenitic stainless steel, the cyclical use of which is vital for sustainable resource management. Under the current practice of recycling, however, different metals are likely to be mixed in an uncontrolled manner, resulting in function losses and dissipation of metals with distinctive functions, and in the contamination of recycled steels. The latter could result in dilution loss, if metal scrap needed dilution with virgin iron to reduce the contamination below critical levels. Management of these losses resulting from mixing in repeated recycling of metals requires tracking of metals over multiple life cycles of products with compositional details. A new model (MaTrace-alloy) was developed that tracks the fate of metals embodied in each of products over multiple life cycles of products, involving accumulation, discard, and recycling, with compositional details at the level of both alloys and products. The model was implemented for the flow of Cr and Ni in the Japanese steel cycle involving 27 steel species and 115 final products. It was found that, under a high level of scrap sorting, greater than 70% of the initial functionality of Cr and Ni could be retained over a period of 100 years, whereas under a poor level of sorting, it could plunge to less than 30%, demonstrating the relevance of waste management technology in circular economy policies.

The Material Stock–Flow–Service Nexus: A New Approach for Tackling the Decoupling Conundrum

Fundamental changes in the societal use of biophysical resources are required for a sustainability transformation. Current socioeconomic metabolism research traces flows of energy, materials or substances to capture resource use: input of raw materials or energy, their fate in production and consumption, and the discharge of wastes and emissions. This approach has yielded important insights into eco-efficiency and long-term drivers of resource use. But socio-metabolic research has not yet fully incorporated material stocks or their services, hence not completely exploiting the analytic power of the metabolism concept. This commentary argues for a material stock–flow–service nexus approach focused on the analysis of interrelations between material and energy flows, socioeconomic material stocks (“in-use stocks of materials”) and the services provided by specific stock/flow combinations. Analyzing the interrelations between stocks, flows and services will allow researchers to develop highly innovative indicators of eco-efficiency and open new research directions that will help to better understand biophysical foundations of transformations towards sustainability.

The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

How Will Copper Contamination Constrain Future Global Steel Recycling?

Copper in steel causes metallurgical problems, but is pervasive in end-of-life scrap and cannot currently be removed commercially once in the melt. Contamination can be managed to an extent by globally trading scrap for use in tolerant applications and dilution with primary iron sources. However, the viability of long-term strategies can only be evaluated with a complete characterization of copper in the global steel system and this is presented in this paper. The copper concentration of flows along the 2008 steel supply chain is estimated from a survey of literature data and compared with estimates of the maximum concentration that can be tolerated in steel products. Estimates of final steel demand and scrap supply by sector are taken from a global stock-saturation model to determine when the amount of copper in the steel cycle will exceed that which can be tolerated. Best estimates show that quantities of copper arising from conventional scrap preparation can be managed in the global steel system until 2050 assuming perfectly coordinated trade and extensive dilution, but this strategy will become increasingly impractical. Technical and policy interventions along the supply chain are presented to close product loops before this global constraint.

Long-Term Temporal Trends of Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Their Controlling Sources in China

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT), and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑₇PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation) using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of intentionally produced (IP) emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighboring regions with a net output of ∼0.4 t year^-1 by around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.

Regional distribution and losses of end-of-life steel throughout multiple product life cycles-Insights from the global multiregional MaTrace model

Substantial amounts of post-consumer scrap are exported to other regions or lost during recovery and remelting, and both export and losses pose a constraint to desires for having regionally closed material cycles. To quantify the challenges and trade-offs associated with closed-loop metal recycling, we looked at the material cycles from the perspective of a single material unit and trace a unit of material through several product life cycles. Focusing on steel, we used current process parameters, loss rates, and trade patterns of the steel cycle to study how steel that was originally contained in high quality applications such as machinery or vehicles with stringent purity requirements gets subsequently distributed across different regions and product groups such as building and construction with less stringent purity requirements. We applied MaTrace Global, a supply-driven multiregional model of steel flows coupled to a dynamic stock model of steel use. We found that, depending on region and product group, up to 95% of the steel consumed today will leave the use phase of that region until 2100, and that up to 50% can get lost in obsolete stocks, landfills, or slag piles until 2100. The high losses resulting from business-as-usual scrap recovery and recycling can be reduced, both by diverting postconsumer scrap into long-lived applications such as buildings and by improving the recovery rates in the waste management and remelting industries. Because the lifetimes of high-quality (cold-rolled) steel applications are shorter and remelting occurs more often than for buildings and infrastructure, we found and quantified a tradeoff between low losses and high-quality applications in the steel cycle. Furthermore, we found that with current trade patterns, reduced overall losses will lead to higher fractions of secondary steel being exported to other regions. Current loss rates, product lifetimes, and trade patterns impede the closure of the steel cycle.

Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society

The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization of many parts of the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted in a fast-increasing demand for and accumulation of construction materials in society. Despite the importance of physical stocks in society, the empirical assessment of total material stock of buildings and infrastructure and reasons for its growth have been underexplored in the sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach for explaining material stock dynamics in society and create a country typology for stock accumulation trajectories using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, a stochastic approach commonly used in business studies and economics to inspect and forecast time series. This enables us to create scenarios for future demand and accumulation of building materials in society, including uncertainty estimates. We find that the so-far overlooked aspect of acceleration trends of material stock accumulation holds the key to explaining material stock growth, and that despite tremendous variability in country characteristics, stock accumulation is limited to only four archetypal growth patterns. The ability of nations to change their pattern will be a determining factor for global sustainability.

Global carbon benefits of material substitution in passenger cars until 2050 and the impact on the steel and aluminum industries

Light-weighting of passenger cars using high-strength steel or aluminum is a common emissions mitigation strategy. We provide a first estimate of the global impact of light-weighting by material substitution on GHG emissions from passenger cars and the steel and aluminum industries until 2050. We develop a dynamic stock model of the global car fleet and combine it with a dynamic MFA of the associated steel, aluminum, and energy supply industries. We propose four scenarios for substitution of conventional steel with high-strength steel and aluminum at different rates over the period 2010-2050. We show that light-weighting of passenger cars can become a "gigaton solution": Between 2010 and 2050, persistent light-weighting of passenger cars can, under optimal conditions, lead to cumulative GHG emissions savings of 9-18 gigatons CO2-eq compared to development business-as-usual. Annual savings can be up to 1 gigaton per year. After 2030, enhanced material recycling can lead to further reductions: closed-loop metal recycling in the automotive sector may reduce cumulative emissions by another 4-6 gigatons CO2-eq. The effectiveness of emissions mitigation by material substitution significantly depends on how the recycling system evolves. At present, policies focusing on tailpipe emissions and life cycle assessments of individual cars do not consider this important effect.

MaTrace: tracing the fate of materials over time and across products in open-loop recycling

Even for metals, open-loop recycling is more common than closed-loop recycling due, among other factors, to the degradation of quality in the end-of-life (EoL) phase. Open-loop recycling is subject to loss of functionality of original materials, dissipation in forms that are difficult to recover, and recovered metals might need dilution with primary metals to meet quality requirements. Sustainable management of metal resources calls for the minimization of these losses. Imperative to this is quantitative tracking of the fate of materials across different stages, products, and losses. A new input-output analysis (IO) based model of dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) is presented that can trace the fate of materials over time and across products in open-loop recycling taking explicit consideration of losses and the quality of scrap into account. Application to car steel recovered from EoL vehicles (ELV) showed that after 50 years around 80% of the steel is used in products, mostly buildings and civil engineering (infrastructure), with the rest mostly resided in unrecovered obsolete infrastructure and refinery losses. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the effects of changes in product lifespan, and the quality of scrap.

Criticality of iron and its principal alloying elements

Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology was created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to iron and several of its main alloying elements (i.e., vanadium, chromium, manganese, and niobium). These elements represent the basic metals of any industrial society and are vital for national security and economic well-being. Assessments relating to the dimensions of criticality - supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications - for 2008 are made on the global level and for the United States. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented, with aggregate results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates. Iron has the lowest supply risk, primarily because of its widespread geological occurrence. Vanadium displays the highest cradle-to-gate environmental implications, followed by niobium, chromium, manganese, and iron. Chromium and manganese, both essential in steel making, display the highest vulnerability to supply restriction, largely because substitution or substitution at equal performance is not possible for all end-uses. From a comprehensive perspective, we regard the overall criticality as low for iron and modest for the alloying elements we evaluated.

Modeling metal stocks and flows: a review of dynamic material flow analysis methods

Dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) is a frequently used method to assess past, present, and future stocks and flows of metals in the anthroposphere. Over the past fifteen years, dynamic MFA has contributed to increased knowledge about the quantities, qualities, and locations of metal-containing goods. This article presents a literature review of the methodologies applied in 60 dynamic MFAs of metals. The review is based on a standardized model description format, the ODD (overview, design concepts, details) protocol. We focus on giving a comprehensive overview of modeling approaches and structure them according to essential aspects, such as their treatment of material dissipation, spatial dimension of flows, or data uncertainty. The reviewed literature features similar basic modeling principles but very diverse extrapolation methods. Basic principles include the calculation of outflows of the in-use stock based on inflow or stock data and a lifetime distribution function. For extrapolating stocks and flows, authors apply constant, linear, exponential, and logistic models or approaches based on socioeconomic variables, such as regression models or the intensity-of-use hypothesis. The consideration and treatment of further aspects, such as dissipation, spatial distribution, and data uncertainty, vary significantly and highly depends on the objectives of each study.

The roles of energy and material efficiency in meeting steel industry CO2 targets

Identifying strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from steel production requires a comprehensive model of the sector but previous work has either failed to consider the whole supply chain or considered only a subset of possible abatement options. In this work, a global mass flow analysis is combined with process emissions intensities to allow forecasts of future steel sector emissions under all abatement options. Scenario analysis shows that global capacity for primary steel production is already near to a peak and that if sectoral emissions are to be reduced by 50% by 2050, the last required blast furnace will be built by 2020. Emissions reduction targets cannot be met by energy and emissions efficiency alone, but deploying material efficiency provides sufficient extra abatement potential.