Spatiotemporal characterization of PM2.5, O3, and trace gases associated with East Asian continental outflows via drone sounding

East Asian continental outflows with PM2.5, O3, and other species may determine the baseline conditions and affect the air quality in downwind areas via long-range transport (LRT). To gain insight into the impact and spatiotemporal characteristics of airborne pollutants in East Asian continental outflows, a versatile multicopter drone sounding platform was used to simultaneously observe PM2.5, O3, CO2, and meteorological variables (temperature, specific humidity, pressure, and wind vector) above the northern tip of Taiwan, Cape Fuiguei, which often encounters continental outflows during winter monsoon periods. By coordinating hourly high-spatial-resolution profiles provided by drone soundings, WRF/CMAQ model air quality predictions, HYSPLIT-simulated backward trajectories, and MERRA-2 reanalysis data, we analyzed two prominent phenomena of airborne pollutants in continental outflows to better understand their physical/chemical characteristics. First, we found that pollutants were well mixed within a sounding height of 500 m when continental outflows passed through and completely enveloped Cape Fuiguei. Eddies induced by significant fluctuations in wind speeds coupled with minimal temperature inversion and LRT facilitated vertical mixing, possibly resulting in high homogeneity of pollutants within the outflow layer. Second, the drone soundings indicated exceptionally high O3 concentrations (70-100 ppbv) but relatively low concentrations of PM2.5 (10-20 μg/m3), CO2 (420-425 ppmv), and VOCs in some air masses. The low levels of PM2.5, CO2, and VOCs ruled out photochemistry as the cause of the formation of high-level O3. Further coordination of spatiotemporal data with air mass trajectories and O3 cross sections provided by MERRA-2 suggested that the high O3 concentrations could be attributed to stratospheric intrusion and advection via continental outflows. High-level O3 concentrations persisted in the lower troposphere, even reaching the surface, suggesting that stratospheric intrusion O3 may be involved in the rising trend in O3 concentrations in parts of East Asia in recent years in addition to surface photochemical factors.

Stringent Emission Controls Are Needed to Reach Clean Air Targets for Cities in China under a Warming Climate

Quantifying the threat that climate change poses to fine particle (PM_2.5) pollution is hampered by large uncertainties in the relationship between PM_2.5 and meteorology. To constrain the impact of climate change on PM_2.5, statistical models are often employed in a different manner than physical-chemical models to reduce the requirement of input data. A majority of statistical models predict PM_2.5 concentration (often log-transformed) as a simple function of meteorology, which could be biased due to the conversion of precursor gases to PM_2.5. We reduced this bias by developing a unique statistic model where the sum of PM_2.5 and the weighted precursor gases, rather than the PM_2.5 alone, was predicted as a function of meteorology and a proxy of primary emissions, where the input data of PM₁₀, CO, O₃, NO_x, and SO₂ were obtained from routine measurements. This modification, without losing the simplicity of statistical models, reduced the mean-square error from 27 to 17% and increased the coefficient of determination from 47 to 67% in the model cross-validation using daily PM_2.5 observations during 2013-2018 for 74 cities over China. We found a previously unrecognized mechanism that synoptic climate change in the past half-century might have increased low quantiles of PM_2.5 more strenuously than the upper quantiles in large cities over China. Climate change during 1971-2018 was projected to increase the annual mean concentration of PM_2.5 at a degree that could be comparable with the toughest-ever clean air policy during 2013-2018 had counteracted it, as inferred from the decline in the daily concentration of carbon monoxide as an inert gas. Our estimate of the impact of climate change on PM_2.5 is higher than previous statistical models, suggesting that aerosol chemistry might play a more important role than previously thought in the interaction between climate change and air pollution. Our result indicated that air quality might degrade if the future synoptic climate change could continue interacting with aerosol chemistry as it had occurred in the past half-century.

A comprehensive study of the COVID-19 impact on PM2.5 levels over the contiguous United States: A deep learning approach

We investigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on PM_2.5 levels in eleven urban environments across the United States: Washington DC, New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, Detroit, Phoenix, and Seattle. We estimate daily PM_2.5 levels over the contiguous U.S. in March-May 2019 and 2020, and leveraging a deep convolutional neural network, we find a correlation coefficient, an index of agreement, a mean absolute bias, and a root mean square error of 0.90 (0.90), 0.95 (0.95), 1.34 (1.24) μg/m³, and 2.04 (1.87) μg/m³, respectively. Results from Google Community Mobility Reports and estimated PM_2.5 concentrations show a greater reduction of PM_2.5 in regions with larger decreases in human mobility and those in which individuals remain in their residential areas longer. The relationship between vehicular PM_2.5 (i.e., the ratio of vehicular PM_2.5 to other sources of PM_2.5) emissions and PM_2.5 reductions (R = 0.77) in various regions indicates that regions with higher emissions of vehicular PM_2.5 generally experience greater decreases in PM_2.5. While most of the urban environments ⸺ Washington DC, New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Seattle ⸺ show a decrease in PM_2.5 levels by 21.1%, 20.7%, 18.5%, 8.05%, 3.29%, 3.63%, 6.71%, 4.82%, 13.5%, and 7.73%, respectively, between March-May of 2020 and 2019, Phoenix shows a 5.5% increase during the same period. Similar to their PM_2.5 reductions, Washington DC, New York, and Boston, compared to other cities, exhibit the highest reductions in human mobility and the highest vehicular PM_2.5 emissions, highlighting the great impact of human activity on PM_2.5 changes in eleven regions. Moreover, compared to changes in meteorological factors, changes in pollutant concentrations, including those of black carbon, organic carbon, SO₂, SO₄, and especially NO₂, appear to have had a significantly greater impact on PM_2.5 changes during the study period.

Insight into ozone profile climatology over northeast China from aircraft measurement and numerical simulation

Tropospheric ozone is a major pollutant that can harm human health, animals and plants. With a rapid development in Northeast China, ozone pollution has become an increasingly serious environmental challenge. To study the ozone distribution and the potential sources of ozone precursors in Northeast China, we analyzed vertical ozone profiles from the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) in 2012-2014 and provided the climatological vertical structure of tropospheric ozone over Shenyang. The tropospheric ozone generally presents high in hot months, mainly due to the combined effects of the strong solar radiation and high volatile organic compounds emission in summer. While in cold months, the ozone is low because of weak solar radiation and high nitrogen oxides emission. Besides, a low-ozone center exists within lower troposphere in August, which is mainly caused by the East Asian summer monsoon prevailing in summer. To analyze the sources of ozone, typical ozone pollution episodes were studied and the results revealed the different pathways for the enhancement of ozone pollution in Shenyang: regional transport of anthropogenic emissions from North China Plain (NCP), long-range transport from Siberian biomass burning and local photochemical production. Modeling results show that the largest contribution to the surface ozone in Northeast China is local anthropogenic emissions (exceed 90%); the regional transport of NCP anthropogenic emissions contribute more to the pollutants around 2 km, and account for more than 50% pollutants during highly ozone polluted days; through long-range transport, Siberian biomass burning in the spring also have a nonnegligible effect on the near-ground ozone in Northeast China. Overall, this study provides tropospheric ozone climatology and its source attribution in Northeast China, and highlight the great importance of regional transport of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in ozone pollution.

Numerical simulation of atmospheric CO2 concentration and flux over the Korean Peninsula using WRF-VPRM model during Korus-AQ 2016 campaign

We conducted regional scale CO₂ simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). We contrasted simulated concentrations with column, ground and aircraft observations during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) 2016 field campaign. Overall, WRF-VPRM slightly underestimates CO₂ concentrations at ground and column monitoring sites, but it significantly underestimates at an inland tower measurement site, especially within the stable (nocturnal) boundary layer in nighttime. The model successfully captures the airborne vertical profiles but showed a large offset within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in the areas surrounding Seoul and around the Taeahn point source emissions in the west coastal area of the Korean Peninsula. A case study flight intended to capture Chinese influence observed no clear signals of long-range transport of CO₂, due mainly to the much larger magnitude of background CO₂ concentrations. The calculated Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with flux measurements at a tower site in the South Korean Peninsula has also been evaluated comparing with CO₂ flux measurements at a flux tower site, resulting in the underestimation by less than a factor of 1.

Distribution of CO2 in Western Pacific, Studied Using Isotope Data Made in Taiwan, OCO-2 Satellite Retrievals, and CarbonTracker Products

To assess sources and processes that affect the variability of CO2 at local to regional scales, we have analyzed the mixing ratio [CO2] and stable isotopic compositions (δ13C and δ18O) of atmospheric CO2 for three years (2014-2016) in urban and sub-urban areas in Taipei, Taiwan. The data are compared with those from some background sites, viz., Lulin, Mauna Loa, and Minamitorishima, to evaluate how local emissions affect CO2 level regionally. [CO2] over the urban and sub-urban stations are significantly higher than that observed at the three aforementioned remote sites mainly due to local emissions, which partly mask the seasonal cycle caused by photosynthesis and respiration. Likewise, significantly low δ13C and δ18O values observed at two Taipei stations also point to anthropogenic emissions. The seasonal cycles in [CO2] and in the isotopic compositions are retrieved using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Regional impact is assessed using CO2 products from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 satellite, the NOAA/EARL CarbonTracker project, and meteorological data from European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast-Interim. We found that besides local emissions, Taiwan is largely affected by external CO2 in winter and spring originated from north, west and southwest landmasses. In winter air masses with elevated CO2 concentrations, originated in eastern China influence Taipei. In spring season, about 2 ppmv enhancement in CO2 observed at the top of Lulin, a high mountain station (2.8 km), could be linked to CO2 produced by biomass burning in the southeast Asian countries and transported to the region by easterly winds.

Ratios of greenhouse gas emissions observed over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

During a cruise of the survey vessel Dongfanghong II on the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea in the spring of 2017 we performed accurate measurements of the mole fractions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) using two types of Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometers (CRDS). The spatial variations of the mole fraction of the four trace gases were very similar. The emission sources of these gases were divided into several regions by using the NOAA HYSPLIT model. Then we analyzed the variations of the ratios of the mole fraction enhancements between every pair of trace gases downwind of these source areas. The ratios showed that the distributions of these trace gases over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea in the spring were mainly caused by the emissions from Eastern China. The much higher enhancement ratio of ΔCO/ΔCO₂ and the lower ratio of ΔCH₄/ΔCO observed in the air parcels from big cities like Beijing and Shanghai indicated high CO emission from the cities during our time of observation. Compared with the values of NOAA's Marine Boundary Layer (MBL), the ratios of the averages in the air coming from the Northern sector (Russia) were on average closer to the MBL, and the air that stayed over the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea was a mixture of emissions from wide regional areas. The highly variable N₂O data of the air from Qingdao and Shanghai showed much more fluctuation.

The effects of transboundary air pollution following major events in China on air quality in the U.S.: Evidence from Chinese New Year and sandstorms

Transboundary air pollution is a global environmental and public health problem including in the U.S., where pollution emissions from China, the largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollution in the world, can travel across the Pacific Ocean and reach places like California and Oregon. We examine the effects of transboundary air pollution following major events in China, specifically sandstorms, a natural-occurring source of air pollution, and Chinese New Year, a major 7-day holiday, on background air quality in the U.S. We focus on high elevation sites on the west coast between 2000 and 2013. We use regression analysis and a natural experiment to exploit the variation in the timing of these events in China, which are plausibly uncorrelated to other factors that affect air quality in China and the U.S. We find that sandstorms are associated with statistically significant increases in background coarse and fine particulate matter (PM) in the U.S., representing between 16 and 39% of average weekly PM levels. We also find Chinese New Year is associated with modest reductions in background air quality in the U.S., representing between 0.4 and 2.5% of PM levels. Findings are robust to different models and falsification tests. These results suggest that regression analysis could be a powerful tool to complement other, more widely used techniques in the environmental sciences that study this problem. This also has important implications for policymakers, who could track major sandstorms in China and prepare for possible increased foreign pollution emissions in the U.S.

Regional and Hemispheric Influences on Temporal Variability in Baseline Carbon Monoxide and Ozone over the Northeast US

Interannual variability in baseline carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), defined as mixing ratios under minimal influence of recent and local emissions, was studied for seven rural sites in the Northeast US over 2001 - 2010. Annual baseline CO exhibited statistically significant decreasing trends (-4.3 - -2.3 ppbv yr-1), while baseline O3 did not display trends at any site. In examining the data by season, wintertime and springtime baseline CO at the two highest sites (1.5 km and 2 km asl) did not experience significant trends. Decadal increasing trends (~2.55 ppbv yr-1) were found in springtime and wintertime baseline O3 in southern New Hampshire, which was associated with anthropogenic NOx emission reductions from the urban corridor. Biomass burning emissions impacted summertime baseline CO with ~38% variability from wildfire emissions in Russia and ~22% from Canada at five sites and impacted baseline O3 at the two high elevation sites only with ~27% variability from wildfires in both Russia and Canada. The Arctic Oscillation was negatively correlated with summertime baseline O3, while the North Atlantic Oscillation was positively correlated with springtime baseline O3. This study suggested that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, and meteorological conditions were important factors working together to determine baseline O3 and CO in the Northeast U.S. during the 2000s.

Long-term inverse modeling of Chinese CO emission from satellite observations

Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions in China in 2005-2010 were estimated by inversion, using the Green's function method from vertical CO profiles derived from MOPITT Version 5 satellite data and a tagged CO simulation, and validated with independent in situ observations from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. Modeling with a posteriori emission successfully reproduced CO outflow from the continent to the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, and Japanese islands during winter and spring, and compensated for underestimates in central and eastern China in summer. A posteriori emissions showed large seasonal variations in which December and March emissions were on average 23% larger than August emissions, consistent with other studies. Estimated Chinese CO emissions were 184.4, 173.1, 184.6, 158.4, 157.4, and 157.3 Tg/year for 2005-2010, respectively. The decrease after 2007 is partly attributed to Chinese socioeconomic conditions and improved combustion efficiency.

Using Bayesian optimization method and FLEXPART tracer model to evaluate CO emission in East China in springtime

Carbon monoxide (CO) is of great interest as a restriction factor for pollutants related to incomplete combustions. This study attempted to evaluate CO emission in East China using the analytical Bayesian inverse method and observations at Mount Hua in springtime. The mixing ratio of CO at the receptor was calculated using 5-day source-receptor relationship (SRR) simulated by a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART) and CO emission flux. The stability of the inversion solution was evaluated on the basis of repeated random sampling simulations. The inversion results demonstrated that there were two city cluster regions (the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the low reaches of the Yangtze River Delta) where the difference between a priori (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B, INTEX-B) and a posteriori was statistically significant and the a priori might underestimate the CO emission flux by 37 %. A correction factor (a posteriori/a priori) of 1.26 was suggested for CO emission in China in spring. The spatial distribution and magnitude of the CO emission flux were comparable to the latest regional emission inventory in Asia (REAS2.0). Nevertheless, further evaluation is still necessary in view of the larger uncertainties for both the analytical inversion and the bottom-up statistical approaches.

Nitrogen Deposition Effects on Diatom Communities in Lakes from Three National Parks in Washington State

The goal of this study was to document if lakes in National Parks in Washington have exceeded critical levels of nitrogen (N) deposition, as observed in other Western States. We measured atmospheric N deposition, lake water quality, and sediment diatoms at our study lakes. Water chemistry showed that our study lakes were ultra-oligotrophic with ammonia and nitrate concentrations often at or below detection limits with low specific conductance (<100 μS/cm), and acid neutralizing capacities (<400 μeq/L). Rates of summer bulk inorganic N deposition at all our sites ranged from 0.6 to 2.4 kg N ha-1 year-1 and were variable both within and across the parks. Diatom assemblages in a single sediment core from Hoh Lake (Olympic National Park) displayed a shift to increased relative abundances of Asterionella formosa and Fragilaria tenera beginning in the 1969-1975 timeframe, whereas these species were not found at the remaining (nine) sites. These diatom species are known to be indicative of N enrichment and were used to determine an empirical critical load of N deposition, or threshold level, where changes in diatom communities were observed at Hoh Lake. However, N deposition at the remaining nine lakes does not seem to exceed a critical load at this time. At Milk Lake, also in Olympic National Park, there was some evidence that climate change might be altering diatom communities, but more research is needed to confirm this. We used modeled precipitation for Hoh Lake and annual inorganic N concentrations from a nearby National Atmospheric Deposition Program station, to calculate elevation-corrected N deposition for 1980-2009 at Hoh Lake. An exponential fit to this data was hindcasted to the 1969-1975 time period, and we estimate a critical load of 1.0 to 1.2 kg N ha-1 year-1 for wet deposition for this lake.

Assessing and forecasting atmospheric outflow of α-HCH from China on intra-, inter-, and decadal time scales

Atmospheric outflow of α-HCH from China from 1952 to 2009 was investigated using Chinese Gridded Pesticide Emission and Residue Model (ChnGPERM). The model results show that the outflows via the northeast boundary (NEB, longitude 115-135 °E along 55 °N and latitude 37-55 °N along 135 °E) and the mid-south boundary (MSB, longitude 100-120 °E along 17 °N) of China account for 47% and 35% of the total outflow, respectively. Two climate indices based on the statistical association between the time series of modeled α-HCH outflow and atmospheric sea-level pressure were developed to predict the outflow on different time scales. The first index explains 70/83% and 10/46% of the intra-annual variability of the outflow via the NEB and MSB during the periods of 1952-1984 and 1985-2009, respectively. The second index explains 16% and 19% of the interannual and longer time scale variability in the outflow through the NEB during June-August and via the MSB during October-December for 1991-2009, respectively. Results also revealed that climate warming may potentially result in stronger outflow via the NEB than the MSB. The linkage between the outflow with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and climate warming trend over China was also discussed.

Vertical transport of ozone and CO during super cyclones in the Bay of Bengal as detected by Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

Vertical profiles of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone retrieved from Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer have been analyzed during two super cyclone systems Mala and Sidr. Super cyclones Mala and Sidr traversed the Bay of Bengal (BOB) region on April 24-29, 2006 and November 12-16, 2007 respectively. The CO and ozone plume is observed as a strong enhancement of these pollutants in the upper troposphere over the BOB, indicating deep convective transport. Longitude-height cross-section of these pollutants shows vertical transport to the upper troposphere. CO mixing ratio ~90 ppb is observed near the 146-mb level during the cyclone Mala and near 316 mb during the cyclone Sidr. Ozone mixing ratio ~60-100 ppb is observed near the 316-mb level during both the cyclones. Analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis vertical winds (omega) confirms vertical transport in the BOB.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts

We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health, as well as studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and the impacts of these changes on morbidity/mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty are the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given the uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, increasing morbidity/mortality. There are few projections for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, because few studies have been conducted. More research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts

OBJECTIVE

Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health.

DATA SOURCES

We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations.

Intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia and its consequences

The intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia is a crucial issue for air quality concerns in countries downwind of the significant emissions and concentrations of pollutants occurring in this important region of the world. Since the lifetimes of some important pollutants are long enough to be transported over long distance in the troposphere, regional control strategies for air pollution in downwind countries might be ineffective without considering the effects of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia. Field campaigns provide strong evidence for the intercontinental transport of Asian pollutants. They, together with ground-based observations and model simulations, show that the air quality over parts of North America is being affected by the pollutants transported from Asia. This paper examines the current understanding of the intercontinental transport of gases and aerosols from Asia and resulting effects on air quality, and on the regional and global climate system.