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Clifton OE, Schwede D, Hogrefe C, Bash JO, Bland S, Cheung P, Coyle M, Emberson L, Flemming J, Fredj E, Galmarini S, Ganzeveld L, Gazetas O, Goded I, Holmes CD, Horváth L, Huijnen V, Li Q, Makar PA, Mammarella I, Manca G, Munger JW, Pérez-Camanyo JL, Pleim J, Ran L, Jose RS, Silva SJ, Staebler R, Sun S, Tai APK, Tas E, Vesala T, Weidinger T, Wu Z, Zhang L. A single-point modeling approach for the intercomparison and evaluation of ozone dry deposition across chemical transport models (Activity 2 of AQMEII4). ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2023; 23:9911-9961. [PMID: 37990693 PMCID: PMC10659075 DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-9911-2023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2023]
Abstract
A primary sink of air pollutants and their precursors is dry deposition. Dry deposition estimates differ across chemical transport models, yet an understanding of the model spread is incomplete. Here, we introduce Activity 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4). We examine 18 dry deposition schemes from regional and global chemical transport models as well as standalone models used for impact assessments or process understanding. We configure the schemes as single-point models at eight Northern Hemisphere locations with observed ozone fluxes. Single-point models are driven by a common set of site-specific meteorological and environmental conditions. Five of eight sites have at least 3 years and up to 12 years of ozone fluxes. The interquartile range across models in multiyear mean ozone deposition velocities ranges from a factor of 1.2 to 1.9 annually across sites and tends to be highest during winter compared with summer. No model is within 50 % of observed multiyear averages across all sites and seasons, but some models perform well for some sites and seasons. For the first time, we demonstrate how contributions from depositional pathways vary across models. Models can disagree with respect to relative contributions from the pathways, even when they predict similar deposition velocities, or agree with respect to the relative contributions but predict different deposition velocities. Both stomatal and nonstomatal uptake contribute to the large model spread across sites. Our findings are the beginning of results from AQMEII4 Activity 2, which brings scientists who model air quality and dry deposition together with scientists who measure ozone fluxes to evaluate and improve dry deposition schemes in the chemical transport models used for research, planning, and regulatory purposes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivia E. Clifton
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia Climate School, Columbia University in the City of New York, New York, NY, USA
| | - Donna Schwede
- Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Christian Hogrefe
- Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Jesse O. Bash
- Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Sam Bland
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment and Geography Department, University of York, York, UK
| | - Philip Cheung
- Air Quality Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mhairi Coyle
- United Kingdom Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
- The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Lisa Emberson
- Environment and Geography Department, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Erick Fredj
- Department of Computer Science, The Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel
| | | | - Laurens Ganzeveld
- Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Orestis Gazetas
- Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Ignacio Goded
- Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Christopher D. Holmes
- Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - László Horváth
- ELKH-SZTE Photoacoustic Research Group, Department of Optics and Quantum Electronics, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary
| | - Vincent Huijnen
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
| | - Qian Li
- The Institute of Environmental Sciences, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Paul A. Makar
- Air Quality Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada
| | - Ivan Mammarella
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Giovanni Manca
- Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - J. William Munger
- School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | - Jonathan Pleim
- Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Limei Ran
- Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Greensboro, NC, USA
| | - Roberto San Jose
- Computer Science School, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
| | - Sam J. Silva
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Ralf Staebler
- Air Quality Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada
| | - Shihan Sun
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Programme, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Amos P. K. Tai
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Programme, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- State Key Laboratory of Agrobiotechnology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Eran Tas
- The Institute of Environmental Sciences, The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Timo Vesala
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tamás Weidinger
- Department of Meteorology, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Zhiyong Wu
- ORISE Fellow at Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Leiming Zhang
- Air Quality Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada
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Assessment of Ultraviolet Impact on Main Pigment Content in Purple Basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) by the Spectrometric Method and Hyperspectral Images Analysis. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/app11198804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
This research is aimed at the assessing the impact of the ultraviolet radiation in the A, B, and C ranges (as additives to the main light) on general plan condition, the stress experienced by them, the pigment concentration in the leaves and leaf reflective characteristics. Under studying, there were the photo-protective reactions of the purple variety basil plants. The plants were grown in plastic pots in a phyto-chamber equipped with an automatic microclimate system. The phyto-chamber was divided into four compartments where, in addition to the main lighting, there were installed the additional LEDs emitting their radiation in the ranges UV-A, UV-B, and UV-C. Plant reactions were evaluated by the contents of the main pigments as detected by the spectrometric method. Then correlations were revealed between those values and the vegetative indices obtained based on the hyperspectral images. A strong correlation (R2 ˃ 0.83) was observed between the values of the vegetative indices ARI and mARI and the anthocyanins concentration in basil leaves. A weak correlation (R2 = 0.0479) was found between the ARI and mARI values and the carotenoids index CRI700, which is attributed to the shielding effect of the anthocyanins. Deviations in the results are influenced by leaf surface unevenness, its thickness and density. Additional research is needed including developing reflection indices taking into account the shielding effect of the purple pigments.
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Li Q, Gabay M, Rubin Y, Raveh-Rubin S, Rohatyn S, Tatarinov F, Rotenberg E, Ramati E, Dicken U, Preisler Y, Fredj E, Yakir D, Tas E. Investigation of ozone deposition to vegetation under warm and dry conditions near the Eastern Mediterranean coast. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 658:1316-1333. [PMID: 30677993 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2018] [Revised: 12/17/2018] [Accepted: 12/18/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Dry deposition of ozone (O3) to vegetation is an important removal pathway for tropospheric O3, while O3 uptake through plant stomata negatively affects vegetation and leads to climate change. Both processes are controlled by vegetation characteristics and ambient conditions via complex mechanisms. Recent studies have revealed that these processes can be fundamentally impacted by coastal effects, and by dry and warm conditions in ways that have not been fully characterized, largely due to lack of measurements under such conditions. Hence, we hypothesized that measuring dry deposition of O3 to vegetation along a sharp spatial climate gradient, and at different distances from the coast, can offer new insights into the characterization of these effects on O3 deposition to vegetation and stomatal uptake, providing important information for afforestation management and for climate and air-quality model improvement. To address these hypotheses, several measurement campaigns were performed at different sites, including pine, oak, and mixed Mediterranean forests, at distances of 20-59 km from the Eastern Mediterranean coast, under semiarid, Mediterranean and humid Mediterranean climate conditions. The eddy covariance technique was used to quantify vertical O3 flux (Ftot) and its partitioning to stomatal flux (Fst) and non-stomatal flux (Fns). Whereas Fst tended to peak around noon under humid Mediterranean and Mediterranean conditions in summer, it was strongly limited by drought under semiarid conditions from spring to early winter, with minimum average Fst/Ftot of 8-11% during the summer. Fns in the area was predominantly controlled by relative humidity (RH), whereas increasing Fns with RH for RH < 70% indicated enhancement of Fns by aerosols, via surface wetness stimulation. At night, efficient turbulence due to sea and land breezes, together with increased RH, resulted in strong enhancement of Ftot. Extreme dry surface events, some induced by dry intrusion from the upper troposphere, resulted in positive Fns events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Li
- The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Maor Gabay
- The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Yoav Rubin
- The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Shira Raveh-Rubin
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Shani Rohatyn
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Fyodor Tatarinov
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Eyal Rotenberg
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Efrat Ramati
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Uri Dicken
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Yakir Preisler
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Erick Fredj
- Department of Computer Science, Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Dan Yakir
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Eran Tas
- The Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Rehovot, Israel.
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Production of the Japan 30-m Land Cover Map of 2013–2015 Using a Random Forests-Based Feature Optimization Approach. REMOTE SENSING 2016. [DOI: 10.3390/rs8050429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Rosenkranz M, Pugh TAM, Schnitzler JP, Arneth A. Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars. PLANT, CELL & ENVIRONMENT 2015; 38:1896-1912. [PMID: 25255900 DOI: 10.1111/pce.12453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2014] [Revised: 09/11/2014] [Accepted: 09/15/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maaria Rosenkranz
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Research Unit Environmental Simulation, Helmholtz Zentrum München, 85764, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Jörg-Peter Schnitzler
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Research Unit Environmental Simulation, Helmholtz Zentrum München, 85764, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Ashworth K, Wild O, Eller ASD, Hewitt CN. Impact of Biofuel Poplar Cultivation on Ground-Level Ozone and Premature Human Mortality Depends on Cultivar Selection and Planting Location. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:8566-8575. [PMID: 26098452 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b00266] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Isoprene and other volatile organic compounds emitted from vegetation play a key role in governing the formation of ground-level ozone. Emission rates of such compounds depend critically on the plant species. The cultivation of biofuel feedstocks will contribute to future land use change, altering the distribution of plant species and hence the magnitude and distribution of emissions. Here we use relationships between biomass yield and isoprene emissions derived from experimental data for 29 commercially available poplar hybrids to assess the impact that the large-scale cultivation of poplar for use as a biofuel feedstock will have on air quality, specifically ground-level ozone concentrations, in Europe. We show that the increases in ground-level ozone across Europe will increase the number of premature deaths attributable to ozone pollution each year by up to 6%. Substantial crop losses (up to ∼9 Mt y(-1) of wheat and maize) are also projected. We further demonstrate that these impacts are strongly dependent on the location of the poplar plantations, due to the prevailing meteorology, the population density, and the dominant crop type of the region. Our findings indicate the need for a concerted and centralized decision-making process that considers all aspects of future land use change in Europe, and not just the effect on greenhouse gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirsti Ashworth
- †Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, U.K
| | - Oliver Wild
- †Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, U.K
| | - Allyson S D Eller
- ‡Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, United States
| | - C Nick Hewitt
- †Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, U.K
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Affiliation(s)
- Colette L Heald
- †Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Dominick V Spracklen
- ‡School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
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Sharkey TD, Monson RK. The future of isoprene emission from leaves, canopies and landscapes. PLANT, CELL & ENVIRONMENT 2014; 37:1727-40. [PMID: 24471530 DOI: 10.1111/pce.12289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2013] [Revised: 01/20/2014] [Accepted: 01/21/2014] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
Isoprene emission from plants plays a dominant role in atmospheric chemistry. Predicting how isoprene emission may change in the future will help predict changes in atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and secondary organic aerosol concentrations in the future atmosphere. At the leaf-scale, an increase in isoprene emission with increasing temperature is offset by a reduction in isoprene emission rate caused by increased CO₂. At the canopy scale, increased leaf area index in elevated CO₂ can offset the reduction in leaf-scale isoprene emission caused by elevated CO₂. At the landscape scale, a reduction in forest coverage may decrease, while forest fertilization and community composition dynamics are likely to cause an increase in the global isoprene emission rate. Here we review the potential for changes in the isoprene emission rate at all of these scales. When considered together, it is likely that these interacting effects will result in an increase in the emission of the most abundant plant volatile, isoprene, from the biosphere to the atmosphere in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas D Sharkey
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
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10
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Ren Y, Ge Y, Gu B, Min Y, Tani A, Chang J. Role of management strategies and environmental factors in determining the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from urban greenspaces. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2014; 48:6237-6246. [PMID: 24811523 DOI: 10.1021/es4054434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from urban greenspace have recently become a global concern. To identify key factors affecting the dynamics of urban BVOC emissions, we built an estimation model and utilized the city of Hangzhou in southeastern China as an example. A series of single-factor scenarios were first developed, and then nine multifactor scenarios using a combination of different single-factor scenarios were built to quantify the effects of environmental changes and urban management strategies on urban BVOC emissions. Results of our model simulations showed that (1) annual total BVOC emissions from the metropolitan area of Hangzhou were 4.7×10(8) g of C in 2010 and were predicted to be 1.2-3.2 Gg of C (1 Gg=10(9) g) in our various scenarios in 2050, (2) urban management played a more important role in determining future urban BVOC emissions than environmental changes, and (3) a high ecosystem service value (e.g., lowest BVOC/leaf mass ratio) could be achieved through positive coping in confronting environmental changes and adopting proactive urban management strategies on a local scale, that is, to moderately increase tree density while restricting excessive greenspace expansion and optimizing the species composition of existing and newly planted trees.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Ren
- College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University , Hangzhou 310058, PR China
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Cieslik S, Tuovinen JP, Baumgarten M, Matyssek R, Brito P, Wieser G. Gaseous Exchange Between Forests and the Atmosphere. DEVELOPMENTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-08-098349-3.00002-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
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Fiore AM, Naik V, Spracklen DV, Steiner A, Unger N, Prather M, Bergmann D, Cameron-Smith PJ, Cionni I, Collins WJ, Dalsøren S, Eyring V, Folberth GA, Ginoux P, Horowitz LW, Josse B, Lamarque JF, MacKenzie IA, Nagashima T, O'Connor FM, Righi M, Rumbold ST, Shindell DT, Skeie RB, Sudo K, Szopa S, Takemura T, Zeng G. Global air quality and climate. Chem Soc Rev 2012; 41:6663-83. [PMID: 22868337 DOI: 10.1039/c2cs35095e] [Citation(s) in RCA: 114] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arlene M Fiore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
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Trebs I, Mayol-Bracero OL, Pauliquevis T, Kuhn U, Sander R, Ganzeveld L, Meixner FX, Kesselmeier J, Artaxo P, Andreae MO. Impact of the Manaus urban plume on trace gas mixing ratios near the surface in the Amazon Basin: Implications for the NO-NO2-O3photostationary state and peroxy radical levels. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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