A mega-analysis of personality prediction: Robustness and boundary conditions

Mitigating the affective and cognitive consequences of social exclusion: an integrative data analysis of seven social disconnection interventions

BACKGROUND

Being socially excluded has detrimental effects, with prolonged exclusion linked to loneliness and social isolation. Social disconnection interventions that do not require direct support actions (e.g., "how can I help?") offer promise in mitigating the affective and cognitive consequences of social exclusion. We examine how various social disconnection interventions involving friends and unknown peers might mitigate social exclusion by buffering (intervening before) and by promoting recovery (intervening after).

METHODS

We present an integrative data analysis (IDA) of five studies (N = 664) that systematically exposed participants to exclusion (vs. inclusion) social dynamics. Using a well-validated paradigm, participants had a virtual interaction with two other people. Unbeknownst to participants, the other people's behavior was programmed to either behave inclusively toward the participant or for one to behave exclusively. Critically, our social disconnection interventions experimentally manipulated whether a friend was present (vs. an unknown peer vs. being alone), the nature of interpersonal engagement (having a face-to-face conversation vs. a reminder of an upcoming interaction vs. mere presence), and the timing of the intervention in relation to the social dynamic (before vs. during vs. after). We then assessed participants' in-the-moment affective and cognitive responses, which included mood, feelings of belonging, sense of control, and social comfort.

RESULTS

Experiencing exclusion (vs. inclusion) led to negative affective and cognitive consequences. However, engaging in a face-to-face conversation with a friend before the exclusion lessened its impact (p < .001). Moreover, a face-to-face conversation with a friend after exclusion, and even a reminder of an upcoming interaction with a friend, sped-up recovery (ps < .001). There was less conclusive evidence that a face-to-face conversation with an unknown peer, or that the mere presence of a friend or unknown peer, conferred protective benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide support for the effectiveness of social disconnection interventions that involve actual (i.e., face-to-face) or symbolic (i.e., reminders) interactions with friends. These interventions target momentary vulnerabilities that arise from social exclusion by addressing negative affect and cognitions before or after they emerge. As such, they offer a promising approach to primary prevention prior to the onset of loneliness and social isolation.

Socioeconomic status, personality, and major mental disorders: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization study

Previous research has suggested a correlation between socioeconomic status (SES) and mental diseases, while personality traits may be associated with SES and the risk of mental disorders. However, the causal nature of these associations remains largely uncertain. Our Mendelian randomization (MR) study aims to explore the bidirectional causality between SES and mental disorders, as well as to evaluate the potential mediating role of personality in these associations. Using bidirectional MR approach, we assessed the causality between SES indicators and mental disorders. We then used a two-step MR method to further investigate whether and to what extent personality mediates the causal associations in Caucasians. The forward MR analyses identified that years of education, household income, age at first birth and the Townsend deprivation index had a causal association with at least one mental disorder. The reverse MR analyses identified causal effects of genetically predicted schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder on five SES indicators. Importantly, mediation analysis showed that neuroticism partly mediated the causality of household income and years of education on major depressive disorder, respectively. In brief, our study confirmed the bidirectional relationship between SES and mental disorders. We also revealed the role of neuroticism in mediating the association between SES and major depressive disorder, highlighting the importance of considering both socioeconomic and personality factors in mental health research and interventions.

Big Five personality traits predict small but robust differences in civic engagement

OBJECTIVE

This preregistered study provides robust estimates of the links between Big Five personality traits and civic engagement across different samples and life stages.

METHODS

We recruited two samples from the United States and United Kingdom (total N = 1593) and measured Big Five domains, Big Five aspects, and six civic engagement indicators: volunteerism, charitable giving, donating blood, posthumous organ donation, political voting, and vaccination. We compared the links between these measures across samples and tested moderation across life stages and several sociodemographic variables. We explored whether these links replicate between self- and peer-reports.

RESULTS

We found small but robust effects. Agreeable, extraverted, and open/intellectual participants reported more civic engagement, especially volunteerism and charitable giving. Neurotic and conscientious participants mainly reported less civic engagement, especially blood and organ donations. One of the two Big Five aspects often drove these links, such as Compassion in the link between Agreeableness and volunteerism. We found some differences between younger and middle-aged adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Big Five personality traits predict civic engagement modestly but consistently, with adequate study power being critical to detecting these links. Lower-order traits, such as Big Five aspects, clarify the relationships between traits and engagement. Life stages and sociodemographic variables have limited effects.

Associations Between a General Factor and Group Factor from the Spanish-Language Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised Short Form's Neuroticism Scale and the Revised NEO Personality Inventory Domains and Facets

Prior studies used exploratory bifactor analyses to examine the structure of the Neuroticism scale from the Short-scale Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQ-RS). These studies revealed a general factor and two group factors-Anxious-Tense and Worried-Vulnerable. These factors were related to poorer mental health, but their associations with physical health differed, as did their genetic and neurobiological underpinnings. A later study found that their associations with the Big Five Inventory-2 Short Form's factors and facets differed. We reanalyzed data on 1,006 Spanish students who completed Spanish-language versions of the EPQ-RS and the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO PI-R). Using confirmatory factor analysis, we showed that a model comprising the general factor and a group factor-Anxious-Tense-fit well. In later correlations, a joint factor analysis, and simultaneous multiple regressions, we showed that the EPQ-RS's general factor and the group factor had different patterns of associations with the NEO PI-R domains and facets. These associations were consistent with the definition of the EPQ-RS Neuroticism scale's general factor and that of the group factor. Further investigation into the EPQ-RS Neuroticism scale's structure can improve our understanding of neuroticism's relationship with health and other outcomes.

The associations between life events and person-centered personality consistency

OBJECTIVE

Few environments reliably influence mean-level and rank-order changes in personality-perhaps because personality development needs to be examined through an individualized, person-centered lens.

METHODS

The current study used Bayesian multilevel linear models to examine the association between 16 life events and changes in person-centered, Big Five personality consistency across 4 to 10 waves of data using four datasets (N = 24,491).

RESULTS

Selection effects were found for events such as marriage, (un)employment, retirement, and volunteering, whereas between-person effects for slopes were found for events such as beginning formal education, employment, and retirement. Within-person changes were often small and emerged inconsistently across datasets but, when present, were brief and negative in direction, suggesting life events can serve as a short-term disruption to the personality system. However, there were many individual differences around event-related trajectories.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight that the effects of life events depend on how personality and its changes are quantified-with these findings underscoring the utility of a person-centered approach as it can capture the full range of these idiosyncrasies. Overall, these findings suggest that life events are associated with a range of idiosyncratic effects and can serve as a short-term, destabilizing shock to one's personality system.

The effects of socioeconomic status on personality development in adulthood and aging

INTRO

The current study examined the effects of adulthood socioeconomic status (SES) on levels of and changes in the Big Five personality traits domains and nuances in adulthood and during aging. We also tested whether the relations between adulthood SES and personality traits differed by childhood SES and age.

METHODS

Data were drawn from three longitudinal studies: the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging (SATSA, N = 2000), the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS, N = 6428), and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, N = 23,238).

RESULTS

Using the latent growth models, across samples, we found associations between high SES and low levels of neuroticism and high levels of extraversion, openness, and conscientiousness. The effects of SES on changes in personality traits were mainly observed in the aging sample of HRS. In general, a similar pattern was observed at the nuance level. Analyses of the moderating effects of age suggested some evidence for the increasingly important role of SES in levels of and changes in personality traits in older ages.

CONCLUSION

The findings support SES as a source that partially accounts for individual differences in personality traits level. Some evidence was found for the relations between SES and changes in personality traits in old age.

Basic or Adaptation: The Assessment and Heritability of a Brief Measure of Agency

The interpersonal circumplex describes two major axes of personality that guide much of social behavior. Agency, one half of the interpersonal circumplex, refers to relatively stable behavioral patterns that center on self-focused dominance and assertiveness. Past empirical work on agency tends to treat the dimension as a characteristic adaptation, rather than a basic component of personality, in part due to the relatively large gender difference in agency with masculine individuals tending to behave more agentic. However, the psychometric overlap between agency and the most closely linked big five dimension, extraversion, is not well-established, and no behavior genetic work has documented evidence concerning the role of genetic and environmental influences. It is unclear whether agency is more similar to a personality trait, with no evidence of shared environmental influence and moderate heritability, or a characteristic adaptation, with some evidence for shared environmental influence and possibly lower heritability. We used the Midlife Development in the United States study to examine agency, big five, and generativity with replication and robustness check (Nnon-twins = 5,194; Ntwins = 1,914; NMilwaukee = 592). Results indicated that agency was higher in men (d = -.24), moderately heritable (44.4%), strongly correlated with extraversion (r = .51), moderately correlated with generativity (r = .36), and that approximately 40% of the variance in agency was shared with the big five. Agency also changed strongly with extraversion and openness, but less so generativity. Altogether, these results indicate that agency functions similar to other basic personality dimensions but is not clearly a dispositional trait.

Neuroticism facets and mortality risk in adulthood: A systematic review and narrative synthesis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review sought to summarize comprehensively the research investigating the association between facets of neuroticism and mortality risk.

METHODS

A systematic review of prospective cohort studies utilizing rigorous reporting methods was conducted. Six electronic bibliographic databases, MEDLINE [Ovid], Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Web of Science, and SCOPUS, were searched for eligible studies using keywords encompassing personality traits and mortality. Articles from inception to January 2023 were reviewed. The risk of bias was also assessed.

RESULTS

Six of the 2358 identified studies met the inclusion criteria for extraction. Included studies had 335,715 participants, of whom 3.23% died. Participants ages at baseline ranged from 20 to 102, and 54% were female. Five of the six studies reported statistically significant associations between facets of neuroticism and mortality risk. Several underlying facets were reported to be associated with an increased mortality risk, namely vulnerability, cynicism, pessimistic, anxious, and depressive facets. Inadequacy, and worried-vulnerable were reported as protective. One study reported protective effects for impulsiveness, but this was not observed in a further follow-up study.

CONCLUSIONS

Various facets related to neuroticism are associated with an increased or decreased mortality risk. Encompassing all facets in a broad trait likely masks very important personality-health relations, which later impact longevity. Based on these findings, recommendations and future considerations are discussed.

Personality Science in the Digital Age: The Promises and Challenges of Psychological Targeting for Personalized Behavior-Change Interventions at Scale

With the rapidly growing availability of scalable psychological assessments, personality science holds great promise for the scientific study and applied use of customized behavior-change interventions. To facilitate this development, we propose a classification system that divides psychological targeting into two approaches that differ in the process by which interventions are designed: audience-to-content matching or content-to-audience matching. This system is both integrative and generative: It allows us to (a) integrate existing research on personalized interventions from different psychological subdisciplines (e.g., political, educational, organizational, consumer, and clinical and health psychology) and to (b) articulate open questions that generate promising new avenues for future research. Our objective is to infuse personality science into intervention research and encourage cross-disciplinary collaborations within and outside of psychology. To ensure the development of personality-customized interventions aligns with the broader interests of individuals (and society at large), we also address important ethical considerations for the use of psychological targeting (e.g., privacy, self-determination, and equity) and offer concrete guidelines for researchers and practitioners.

From the Individual to the Group: Using Idiographic Analyses and Two-Stage Random Effects Meta-Analysis to Obtain Population Level Inferences for within-Person Processes

In psychology, the use of portable technology and wearable devices to ease participant burden in data collection is on the rise. This creates increased interest in collecting real-time or near real-time data from individuals within their natural environments. As a result, vast amounts of observational time series data are generated. Often, motivation for collecting this data hinges on understanding within-person processes that underlie psychological phenomena. Motivated by the body of Dr. Peter Molenaar's life work calling for analytical approaches that consider potential heterogeneity and non-ergodicity, the focus of this paper is on using idiographic analyses to generate population inferences for within-person processes. Meta-analysis techniques using one-stage and two-stage random effects meta-analysis as implemented in single-case experimental designs are presented. The case for preferring a two-stage approach for meta-analysis of single-subject observational time series data is made and demonstrated using an empirical example. This provides a novel implementation of the methodology as prior implementations focus on applications to short time series with experimental designs. Inspired by Dr. Molenaar's work, we describe how an approach, two-stage random effects meta-analysis (2SRE-MA), aligns with recent calls to consider idiographic approaches when making population-level inferences regarding within-person processes.

Founder personality and entrepreneurial outcomes: A large-scale field study of technology startups

Technology startups play an essential role in the economy-with seven of the ten largest companies rooted in technology, and venture capital investments totaling approximately $300B annually. Yet, important startup outcomes (e.g., whether a startup raises venture capital or gets acquired) remain difficult to forecast-particularly during the early stages of venture formation. Here, we examine the impact of an essential, yet underexplored, factor that can be observed from the moment of startup creation: founder personality. We predict psychological traits from digital footprints to explore how founder personality is associated with critical startup milestones. Observing 10,541 founder-startup dyads, we provide large-scale, ecologically valid evidence that founder personality is associated with outcomes across all phases of a venture's life (i.e., from raising the earliest funding round to exiting via acquisition or initial public offering). We find that openness and agreeableness are positively related to the likelihood of raising an initial round of funding (but unrelated to all subsequent conditional outcomes). Neuroticism is negatively related to all outcomes, highlighting the importance of founders' resilience. Finally, conscientiousness is positively related to early-stage investment, but negatively related to exit conditional on funding. While prior work has painted conscientiousness as a major benefactor of performance, our findings highlight a potential boundary condition: The fast-moving world of technology startups affords founders with lower or moderate levels of conscientiousness a competitive advantage when it comes to monetizing their business via acquisition or IPO.

Going Beyond Traits: Social, Emotional, and Behavioral Skills Matter for Adolescents’ Success

The present research addresses three key questions about social, emotional, and behavioral (SEB) skills. First, how do SEB skills relate with the Big Five traits and Collaborative for Academic, Social, and Emotional Learning (CASEL) core competencies? Second, how do SEB skills relate with consequential outcomes in adolescence? Third, do SEB skills provide incremental validity beyond personality traits? Results from a diverse sample of high school students ( N = 897) indicate that SEB skills converge with the Big Five traits and CASEL competencies in expected and conceptually meaningful ways. Analyses of self-reported and school-reported outcomes extend SEB skills’ nomological network by showing that they predict academic achievement and engagement, occupational interests, social relationships, civic engagement, and well-being. Finally, tests of incremental validity indicate that SEB skills provide unique information beyond personality traits and that this information matters for predicting outcomes during adolescence. These findings advance our understanding of the nature, correlates, and consequences of SEB skills.

Personalized Prediction of Behaviors and Experiences: An Idiographic Person-Situation Test

A longstanding goal of psychology is to predict the things that people do and feel, but tools to accurately predict future behaviors and experiences remain elusive. In the present study, we used intensive longitudinal data (N = 104 college-age adults at a midwestern university; total assessments = 5,971) and three machine-learning approaches to investigate the degree to which three future behaviors and experiences-loneliness, procrastination, and studying-could be predicted from past psychological (i.e., personality and affective states), situational (i.e., objective situations and psychological situation cues), and time (i.e., trends, diurnal cycles, time of day, and day of the week) phenomena from an idiographic, person-specific perspective. Rather than pitting persons against situations, such an approach allows psychological phenomena, situations, and time to jointly predict future behaviors and experiences. We found (a) a striking degree of prediction accuracy across participants, (b) that a majority of participants' future behaviors are predicted by both person and situation features, and (c) that the most important features vary greatly across people.

The transition to grandparenthood: No consistent evidence for change in the Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction

Intergenerational relations have received close attention in the context of population aging and increased childcare provision by grandparents. However, few studies have investigated the psychological consequences of becoming a grandparent. In a preregistered test of grandparenthood as a developmental task in middle and older adulthood, we used representative panel data from the Netherlands ( N = 563) and the United States ( N = 2210) to analyze first-time grandparents’ personality and life satisfaction development. We tested gender, employment, and grandchild care as moderators. To address confounding, we employed propensity score matching using two procedures: matching grandparents with parents and nonparents to achieve balance in different sets of carefully selected covariates. Multilevel models demonstrated mean-level stability of the Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction over the transition to grandparenthood, and no consistent moderation effects—contrary to the social investment principle. The few small effects of grandparenthood on personality development did not replicate across samples. We found no evidence of larger inter-individual differences in change in grandparents compared to the controls or of lower rank-order stability. Our findings add to recent critical re-examinations of the social investment principle and are discussed in light of characteristics that might moderate grandparents’ personality development.

Childhood temperament and adulthood personality differentially predict life outcomes

Debate has long surrounded whether temperament and personality are distinct sets of individual differences or are rather two sides of the same coin. To the extent that there are differences, it could indicate important developmental insights concerning the mechanisms responsible for linking traits with outcomes. One way to test this is to examine the joint and incremental predictive validity of temperament and personality in the same individuals across time. Using a longitudinal sample spanning 3 decades starting at infancy and followed up to 37 years old (N = 7081), we ran a series of Bayesian generalized linear models with measures of childhood temperament and adult-based personality to predict outcomes in several life domains. Results indicated that while each set of individual differences were often related to the same outcomes, there were instances in which temperament provided incremental validity above adult personality, ranging from 2 to 10% additional variance explained. Personality in childhood explained the most variance for outcomes such as cognitive ability and educational attainment whereas personality performed best for outcomes such as health status, substance use, and most internalizing outcomes. These findings indicate childhood and adulthood assessments of personality are not redundant and that a lifespan approach is needed to understand fully understand life outcomes.

Interindividual age differences in personality structure

Most investigations in the structure of personality traits do not adequately address age; instead, they presuppose a constant structure across the lifespan. Further, few studies look at the structure of personality traits a-theoretically, often neglecting to examine the relationship among indicators within a trait (convergence) and across traits (divergence). Using a network approach, the present study examines (1) age differences in divergence and convergence, (2) the similarity between the Big Five and network structures, and (3) the consistency of network structure across age groups in a large, cross-sectional sample. Results indicate that convergence shows early gains in adolescence with few differences across the lifespan, while divergence mostly weakens across adulthood. The result of these age-related differences is that Big Five indicators only parallel the Big Five structure among young but not older adults. The structure of young adults tends to be quite similar while the network structures of older adults appear to greatly differ from one another. These results suggest that older adults have a different structure of personality than younger adults and suggest that future research should not assume consistency in personality structure across the lifespan.