Why the US-China trade war spells disaster for the Amazon

Partial substitution of soybean meal with microalgae meal (Arthrospira spp. - Spirulina) in grower and finisher diets for broiler chickens: implications on performance parameters, footpad dermatitis occurrence, breast meat quality traits, amino acid digestibility and plasma metabolomics profile

This trial was conducted to evaluate the effects of replacing soybean meal with microalgae meal (MM; Arthrospira spp.) during grower and finisher phases on productive performance, footpad dermatitis (FPD) occurrence, breast meat quality, amino acid digestibility and plasma metabolomics profile of broiler chickens. One thousand day-old Ross 308 male chicks were divided into 5 experimental groups (8 replicates, 25 birds/each): CON, fed a commercial soybean-based diet throughout the trial (0-41 d); F3 and F6, fed the CON diet up to 28 d of age and then a finisher diet (29-41 d) with either 30 or 60 g MM/kg, respectively; and GF3 and GF6, receiving CON diet until 14 d and then diets containing 30 or 60 g MM/kg from 15 to 41 d, respectively. All diets were iso-energetic and with a similar amino acid profile. Growth performances were recorded on a pen basis at the end of each feeding phase and apparent ileal amino acid digestibility was determined at 41 d. Footpad dermatitis occurrence was assessed on all processed birds, while breast and plasma samples were collected for meat quality and metabolomics analysis (proton nuclear magnetic resonance - 1H-NMR). At 41 d, CON group showed higher body weight than F6 and GF6 ones (2,541 vs. 2,412 vs. 2,384 g, respectively; P < 0.05). Overall, GF6 group exhibited the highest feed conversion ratio, while F3 did not present significant differences compared to CON (1.785 vs. 1.810 vs. 1.934 g feed/g gain, respectively for CON, F3 and GF6; P < 0.01). The occurrence and the risk of developing FPD were similar among groups. MM administration increased breast meat yellowness and reduced amino acid digestibility (P < 0.001). The 1H-NMR analysis revealed variations in the levels of some circulating metabolites, including histidine, arginine and creatine, which play important metabolic roles. Overall, these findings can contribute to expand the knowledge about the use of Arthrospira spp. as protein source in broiler diets.

Quantum Simulations and Experimental Insights into Glyphosate Adsorption Using Graphene-Based Nanomaterials

The increasing global demand for food and agrarian development brings to light a dual issue concerning the use of substances that are crucial for increasing productivity yet can be harmful to human health and the environment when misused. Herein, we combine insights from high-level quantum simulations and experimental findings to elucidate the fundamental physicochemical mechanisms behind developing graphene-based nanomaterials for the adsorption of emerging contaminants, with a specific focus on pesticide glyphosate (GLY). We conducted a comprehensive theoretical and experimental investigation of graphene-based supports as promising candidates for detecting, sensing, capturing, and removing GLY applications. By combining ab initio molecular dynamics and density functional theory calculations, we explored several chemical environments encountered by GLY during its interaction with graphene-based substrates, including pristine and punctual defect regions. Our results unveiled distinct interaction behaviors: physisorption in pristine and doped graphene regions, chemisorption leading to molecular dissociation in vacancy-type defect regions, and complex transformations involving the capture of N and O atoms from impurity-adsorbed graphene, resulting in the formation of new GLY-derived compounds. The theoretical findings were substantiated by FTIR and Raman spectroscopy, which proposed a mechanism explaining GLY adsorption in graphene-based nanomaterials. The comprehensive evaluation of adsorption energies and associated properties provides valuable insights into the intricate nature of these interactions, shedding light on potential applications and guiding future experimental investigations of graphene-based nanofilters for water decontamination.

Food plants in Brazil: origin, economic value of pollination and pollinator shortage risk

Pollination is a key ecosystem service of critical importance for food production. However, globally, several regions are already experiencing pollinator shortage as pollinators are declining. Here, we investigate the origin, pollinator dependence and economic value of 199 food crops cultivated in Brazil to understand to which extent (1) Brazilian agriculture is vulnerable to pollinator shortage, and (2) Brazilian society has already achieved a comprehensive perspective about crop dependence. We used Brazil as a case study as it is a megadiverse tropical country and the 3rd largest world crop producer and exporter, with most of the crops depending on pollinators. Our findings revealed that over half (53.7%) of the food crops in Brazil are native, with the North region of Brazil housing the higher diversity of native crops, in contrast with the South and Southeast regions. Additionally, considering the reproductive systems, among native food crops, 65.6% exhibit self-incompatibility or dioecy (i.e., requiring obligatory cross-pollination), whereas 30.6% of exotic food crops display this trait. Overall, Brazilian municipalities produce more exotic crops than native ones, with almost 4/5 of the total agricultural area of the country dedicated to the cultivation of exotic crops, which are generally self-compatible commodities that rely low to modestly on pollinators. Regarding the biomes, we observe that this pattern is followed by most of them, but for the Caatinga dry forest, where native crops dependent on pollinators predominate. However, when soybean is removed from the analysis, the areas devoted to exotic crops always decreased, even being equal to native crops in the Atlantic forest. Our results also indicate that considering the pollinator shortage, some Brazilian biomes may be at risk of losing >20% of their yields, mainly in the Caatinga dry forest and the Atlantic forest. Therefore, in this paper, we are discussing that the expansion of monocultures in Brazil's agricultural lands may have several impacts on the provision of pollination services, food production and, then, on food security not only for the Brazilian population, as Brazil is the 3rd largest world agricultural producer and exporter.

Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to food consumption complement production-based or territorial accounts by capturing carbon leaked through trade. Here we evaluate global consumption-based food emissions between 2000 and 2019 and underlying drivers using a physical trade flow approach and structural decomposition analysis. In 2019, emissions throughout global food supply chains reached 30 ±9% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, largely triggered by beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries-while per capita emissions in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined. Emissions outsourced through international food trade dominated by beef and oil crops increased by ~1 Gt CO₂ equivalent, mainly driven by increased imports by developing countries. Population growth and per capita demand increase were key drivers to the global emissions increase (+30% and +19%, respectively) while decreasing emissions intensity from land-use activities was the major factor to offset emissions growth (-39%). Climate change mitigation may depend on incentivizing consumer and producer choices to reduce emissions-intensive food products.

Portfolio value-at-risk estimation for spot chartering decisions under changing trade patterns: A copula approach

Evolving geopolitical relationships between countries (especially between China and the United States) in recent years have highlighted dynamically changing trade patterns across the globe, all of which elevate risk and uncertainty for transport service providers. In order to mitigate risks, shipowners and operators must be able to estimate risks appropriately; one potentially promising method of doing so is through the value-at-risk (VaR) method. VaR describes the worst loss a portfolio is likely to sustain, which will not be exceeded over a target time horizon at a given level of confidence. This article proposes a copula-based GARCH model to estimate the joint multivariate distribution, which is a key component in VaR estimation. We show that the copula model can capture the VaR more successfully, as compared with the traditional method of calculation. As an empirical study, the expected portfolio VaR is examined when a shipowner chooses among Panamax soybean trading routes under a condition of reduced trade volumes between the United States and China due to the ongoing trade turmoil. This study serves as one of the very few papers in the literature on shipping portfolio VaR analysis. The results have significant implications for shipowners regarding fleet repositioning, decision making, and risk management.

Lower pork consumption and technological change in feed production can reduce the pork supply chain environmental footprint in China

Nearly half of global pork production and consumption occurs in China, but the transition towards intensification is associated with worsening environmental impacts. Here we explore scenarios for implementing structural and technological changes across the pork supply chain to improve environmental sustainability and meet future demand. Following the middle-of-the-road socio-economic pathway (SSP2), we estimate that the environmental footprint from the pork supply chain will increase by ~50% from 2017 to 2050. Utilizing technologies that improve feed crop production and manure management could reduce phosphorus and nitrogen losses by three-quarters and one-third, respectively, with modest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and cropland area. Reducing pork consumption had substantial mitigation potential. Increased feed and pork imports would decrease domestic environmental footprints and meet demand, but increase footprints elsewhere. We conclude that farm-specific technologies and structural adjustments can support the development of rural, small-scale pig farms near cropland and promote circular economy principles.

High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment

Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural input costs and the curtailment of exports from Russia and Ukraine on human health and the environment. We show that, combined, agricultural inputs costs and food export restrictions could increase food costs by 60-100% in 2023 from 2021 levels, potentially leading to undernourishment of 61-107 million people in 2023 and annual additional deaths of 416,000 to 1.01 million people if the associated dietary patterns are maintained. Furthermore, reduced land use intensification arising from higher input costs would lead to agricultural land expansion and associated carbon and biodiversity loss. The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices is larger than that from curtailment of Russian and Ukrainian exports. Restoring food trade from Ukraine and Russia alone is therefore insufficient to avoid food insecurity problem from higher energy and fertilizer prices. We contend that the immediacy of the food export problems associated with the war diverted attention away from the principal causes of current global food insecurity.

Synthesizing the connections between environmental disturbances and zoonotic spillover

Zoonotic spillover is a phenomenon characterized by the transfer of pathogens between different animal species. Most human emerging infectious diseases originate from non-human animals, and human-related environmental disturbances are the driving forces of the emergence of new human pathogens. Synthesizing the sequence of basic events involved in the emergence of new human pathogens is important for guiding the understanding, identification, and description of key aspects of human activities that can be changed to prevent new outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. This review synthesizes the connections between environmental disturbances and increased risk of spillover events based on the One Health perspective. Anthropogenic disturbances in the environment (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, wildlife exploitation) lead to changes in ecological niches, reduction of the dilution effect, increased contact between humans and other animals, changes in the incidence and load of pathogens in animal populations, and alterations in the abiotic factors of landscapes. These phenomena can increase the risk of spillover events and, potentially, facilitate new infectious disease outbreaks. Using Brazil as a study model, this review brings a discussion concerning anthropogenic activities in the Amazon region and their potential impacts on spillover risk and spread of emerging diseases in this region.

Environmental footprints of soybean production in China

As a significant protein source for humans and animals, soybean (Glycine max) has experienced a fast growth with the rapid development of population and economy. Despite broad interest in energy consumption and CO2 emissions generated by soybean production, there are few impact-oriented water footprint assessments of soybean production. This study evaluates the fossil energy, carbon, and water footprints of China's soybean production so that key environmental impacts can be identified. To provide reliable results for decision-making, uncertainty analysis is conducted based on the Monte Carlo model. Results show that the impact on climate change, ecosystem quality, human health, and resources is 3.33 × 103 kg CO2 eq (GSD2 = 1.87), 6.18 × 10-5 Species·yr (GSD2 = 1.81), 3.26 × 10-3 Disability-adjusted Life Years (GSD2 = 1.81), and 81.51 $ (GSD2 = 2.28), respectively. Freshwater ecotoxicity is the dominant contributor (77.69%) to the ecosystem quality category, while climate change (85.22%) is the dominant contributor to the human health category. Key factors analysis results show that diammonium phosphate and diesel, and on-site emissions, are the major contributors to the overall environmental burden of soybean production. Several policy recommendations are proposed, focusing on trade structure optimization, efficient resource use, and technological improvements. Such policy recommendations provide valuable insights to those decision-makers so that they can prepare appropriate mitigation policies.

Land-use emissions embodied in international trade

International trade separates consumption of goods from related environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land-use change (together referred to as "land-use emissions"). Through use of new emissions estimates and a multiregional input-output model, we evaluated land-use emissions embodied in global trade from 2004 to 2017. Annually, 27% of land-use emissions and 22% of agricultural land are related to agricultural products ultimately consumed in a different region from where they were produced. Roughly three-quarters of embodied emissions are from land-use change, with the largest transfers from lower-income countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Argentina to more industrialized regions such as Europe, the United States, and China. Mitigation of global land-use emissions and sustainable development may thus depend on improving the transparency of supply chains.

Mabea fistulifera and Zeyheria tuberculosa can be indicated for phytoremediation programs of soils contaminated with hormonal herbicides

Hormone-like herbicides, used for large crops, can contaminate non-target areas with their waste. The objective of this study was to evaluate the tolerance of Mabea fistulifera and Zeyheria tuberculosa to 2,4-D + picloram herbicides by means of morphological and anatomical evaluations. The experiment was performed in a greenhouse in a 4 × 2 factorial scheme. The first factor was the control (without herbicide) and three doses (0.166; 0.333, and 0.666 L ha^-1) of the herbicide Tordon^® (402 g L^-1 2,4-D + 103.6 g L^-1 picloram) and the second factor, the species Mabea fistulifera and Zeyheria tuberculosa. The number of M. fistulifera leaves was lower after treatment with the highest dose of the 2,4-D + picloram mixture. The herbicide rates did not influence the number of Z. tuberculosa leaves. The higher dose of 2,4-D + picloram caused a more than 50% reduction in leaf area. Toxicity increased linearly as a function of the doses of the 2,4-D + picloram mixture. Changes in the leaf anatomy of the two species treated with herbicides were observed; however, the roots did not show any changes. Mabea fistulifera and Zeyheria tuberculosa can be recommended for phytoremediation programs in areas contaminated by the herbicides 2,4-D + picloram.

The increasing global environmental consequences of a weakening US-China crop trade relationship

The consideration of tariffs on China's imports of US agricultural products has focused on economic impacts, while the environmental consequences have received less attention. Here we use a global computable general equilibrium model to evaluate long-term crop portfolio changes induced by China's retaliatory agricultural tariffs and thereby assess the environmental stresses imposed by different crop production portfolios based on region-specific and crop-specific databases. We show that China's tariffs cause unintended increases in nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and blue water extraction in the United States as farmers shift from soybeans to more pollution-causing crops. If diverted to Brazil, China's soybean demands would reduce Brazilian stresses of nitrogen pollution and water use through crop portfolio changes, but may add additional pressures on phosphorus pollution and deforestation. On a global scale, trade policies could help to reduce nutrient pollution and water source depletion by promoting crop production where it is most efficient in terms of nutrient and water use.

Optimization of China’s maize and soy production can ensure feed sufficiency at lower nitrogen and carbon footprints

China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Y_pot) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Y_att) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035-while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%-with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year.

Massive soybean expansion in South America since 2000 and implications for conservation

A prominent goal of policies mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss is to achieve zero-deforestation in the global supply chain of key commodities, such as palm oil and soybean. However, the extent and dynamics of deforestation driven by commodity expansion are largely unknown. Here we mapped annual soybean expansion in South America between 2000 and 2019 by combining satellite observations and sample field data. From 2000-2019, the area cultivated with soybean more than doubled from 26.4 Mha to 55.1 Mha. Most soybean expansion occurred on pastures originally converted from natural vegetation for cattle production. The most rapid expansion occurred in the Brazilian Amazon, where soybean area increased more than 10-fold, from 0.4 Mha to 4.6 Mha. Across the continent, 9% of forest loss was converted to soybean by 2016. Soy-driven deforestation was concentrated at the active frontiers, nearly half located in the Brazilian Cerrado. Efforts to limit future deforestation must consider how soybean expansion may drive deforestation indirectly by displacing pasture or other land uses. Holistic approaches that track land use across all commodities coupled with vegetation monitoring are required to maintain critical ecosystem services.

Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated

Quantifying the dynamics of land use change is critical in tackling global societal challenges such as food security, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Here we analyse the dynamics of global land use change at an unprecedented spatial resolution by combining multiple open data streams (remote sensing, reconstructions and statistics) to create the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment + (HILDA +). We estimate that land use change has affected almost a third (32%) of the global land area in just six decades (1960-2019) and, thus, is around four times greater in extent than previously estimated from long-term land change assessments. We also identify geographically diverging land use change processes, with afforestation and cropland abandonment in the Global North and deforestation and agricultural expansion in the South. Here, we show that observed phases of accelerating (~1960-2005) and decelerating (2006-2019) land use change can be explained by the effects of global trade on agricultural production.

EU-Asian-American Partnership for a Third Industrial Revolution: Transitioning to High Productivity, Sustainable Infrastructures in the Age of COVID-19

The COVID-19 virus has caused a crisis for the world's economy and markets. The World Health Organization has declared the virus to be a global pandemic, meaning that it will have a sustained impact worldwide. In response to the shutdown of economies, governments across the world have implemented fiscal and monetary stimulus packages to counteract the disruption caused by the coronavirus. However, with many countries' economies already slowing before the pandemic, the measures to combat the virus risk sending many countries into full scale recession for the first time since 2009, according to the European Commission. COVID-19 has demonstrated the vulnerability of global supply chains and the need for more resilient infrastructures. Yet Europe cannot do this alone. The EU can only achieve this by strengthening ties and increasing trade cooperation with Asia and South America, in alignment with the values of sustainability. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, however, the EU has had major public disagreements around trade with both regions, essentially on environmental issues. By prioritising cooperation, the EU can work with developing countries in Asia and South America to take tangible steps towards environmentally sustainable production while boosting economic trade.

Double cropping and cropland expansion boost grain production in Brazil

Brazilian grain production increased more than fourfold from 1980 to 2016. The grain boom was achieved primarily by soybean-corn double cropping and cropland expansion-both show changing spatiotemporal patterns since the 1980s. Here, we quantified the contributions of these two strategies to corn and soybean production in Brazil using municipality-level data from 1980 to 2016. We found the contribution of double cropping to the grain boom steadily increased to 35% and the largest driving force was the increasing demand for grain export. While double cropping dominated the conventional agricultural regions, cropland expansion was still the major strategy in agricultural frontiers such as the Centre-West and Matopiba. The implementation of double cropping offset the equivalent of 76.7 million ha of Brazilian arable land for grain production from 2003 to 2016. Double cropping in Brazil has the potential to help alleviate land burdens in other pantropical countries with increasing global food demand.

Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model

This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients. Preliminary results show that global trade improves the food and nutrition security of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Trade also promotes a healthier and more balanced diet, as countries have access to an increased variety of food. The effect of trade in enhancing nutrition security, with an adequate supply of macro and micronutrients, is universal across nutrients and countries. As researchers call for a holistic and multifactorial approach to food security and climate change (Hammond and Dubé 2012 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 12 356-12 363. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0913003109)), the paper is one of the first to develop an integrated framework that consists of socio-economic, geopolitical, nutrition, environmental and agri-food systems to tackle these global challenges. Given the ongoing events of Brexit, the US-China trade war and the global COVID-19 pandemic, the paper will provide valuable insights on the role of trade in improving the food and nutrition security across countries.

Global and National Environmental Impacts of the US-China Trade War

The recent "US-China trade war" has aroused concern over trade-related environmental impacts. This study built a multiregional computable general equilibrium model to simulate environmental impacts of the "US-China trade war" under different scenarios of tariff and nontariff barriers and the battlefield spreading ranges. The present study found that although the trade war will cause a global economic downturn, which will seemingly reduce environmental pressure globally, global carbon emissions are expected to increase rather than decline. On the one hand, the CO₂ emission increase caused by land-use changes in Brazil and Argentina will far exceed the emission reduction because of decreased global production. On the other hand, some countries/economies especially those developing countries such as Vietnam, Russia, and India will face emission increases driven by scale effects. Countries such as Korea, the UK, and France will enjoy a reduction in emissions driven by structural effects. China and the US will face a reduction in production and CO₂ emissions, but their CO₂ emission intensities will rise. The results remind us that as global production and supply chains are formed, it is important to closely monitor trade-related environmental impacts. Efforts should be made to balance the interests of trade and the environment.

Deforestation of rainforests requires active use of UN's Sustainable Development Goals

The deforestation and burning of the Amazon and other rainforests is having a cascade of effects on global climate, biodiversity, human health and local and regional socioeconomics. This challenging situation demands a sustainable exploitation of the region's resources in accordance with the United Nations (UNs) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in order to meet Good Environmental Status and reduce poverty. The management of forests sustainability spans across at least eight of the 17 UN SDGs mainly to combat desertification, halt biodiversity loss, and reverse land degradation. Significant changes are needed if we are to sustain the world's rainforests and thereby the global climate and biodiversity. These measures and mitigations are of global responsibility requiring both developed and developing nations such as the United States, EU, and China to change their policies and stand regarding their high demand for meat and hardwood. When possible, non-profit tree-planting internet browsers should be implemented by governments and institutions. So far, there is a lack of active use of the UN SDGs and the countries must therefore need to fully adopt the UN SDGs in order to help the situation. One way to enforce this could be through imposing economic penalties to governments and national institutions that do not adhere to for example publishing open access of data and other important information relevant for the mission of the UN SDGs.

The ongoing cut-down of the Amazon rainforest threatens the climate and requires global tree planting projects: A short review

The Amazon rainforest has sustained human existence for more than 10,000 years. Part of this has been the way that the forest controls regional climate including precipitation important for the ecosystem as well as agroforestry and farming. In addition, the Amazon also affects the global weather systems, so cutting down the rainforest significantly increases the effects of climate change, threatening the world's biodiversity and causing local desertification and soil erosion. The current fire activities and deforestation in the Amazon rainforest therefore have consequences for global sustainability. In the light of this, the current decisions made in Brazil regarding an increase in Amazon deforestation require policy changes if the global ecosystems and biodiversity are not to be set to collapse. There is only one way to move forward and that is to increase efforts in sustainable development of the region including limitation in deforestation and to continuously measure and monitor the development. The G7 countries have offered Brazil financial support for at least 20 million euros for fighting the forest fires but the president denies receiving such financial support and says that it is more relevant to raise new forests in Europe. In fact, this is exactly what is happening in Denmark and China in order to reduce climate change. Such activities should be global and include South America, Europe, Africa and Asia where deforestation is important issue. Forest restoration reduces climate change, desertification, and preserves both the regional tropical and global environment if the wood is not burned at a later stage but instead used in e.g. roads as filling material. Changes are therefore needed through improved international understanding and agreements to better avoid the global climate changes, from cutting down the precious rainforest before it is too late as rainforest cannot be re-planted.

Temporal Anomalies in Burned Area Trends: Satellite Estimations of the Amazonian 2019 Fire Crisis

Tropical forests are known for hosting about half of the global biodiversity, and therefore are considered to be a fundamental part of the Earth System. However, in the last decades, the anthropogenic pressure over these areas has been continuously increasing, mostly linked to agricultural expansion. This has created great international concern, which has crossed the limits of national policies. A clear example was the last crisis suffered this year (2019) in the Amazon, and in general, in tropical South America (SA), due to the increasing fire activity in the region, which is strongly linked to deforestation and forest degradation. International media extensively informed the world about fire activity based upon active fire data, which provided quick but incomplete information about the actual fire-affected areas. This short paper compares fire occurrence estimations derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data of active fires and from burned area products for the first 10 months of 2019 in SA. Results show a significant increase in fire activity over the full-time series (2001–2018) in Bolivia, Paraguay and Venezuela, while Brazil shows a much higher BA than in 2018, but with values around the average burned area of the whole time series.

Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem

Much of the Earth's biosphere has been appropriated for the production of harvestable biomass in the form of food, fuel and fibre. Here we show that the simplification and intensification of these systems and their growing connection to international markets has yielded a global production ecosystem that is homogenous, highly connected and characterized by weakened internal feedbacks. We argue that these features converge to yield high and predictable supplies of biomass in the short term, but create conditions for novel and pervasive risks to emerge and interact in the longer term. Steering the global production ecosystem towards a sustainable trajectory will require the redirection of finance, increased transparency and traceability in supply chains, and the participation of a multitude of players, including integrated 'keystone actors' such as multinational corporations.

Expanding global commodities trade and consumption place the world’s primates at risk of extinction

As a consequence of recent human activities. populations of approximately 75% of the world’s primates are in decline, and more than 60% of species (n = 512) are threatened with extinction. Major anthropogenic pressures on primate persistence include the widespread loss and degradation of natural habitats caused by the expansion of industrial agriculture, pastureland for cattle, logging, mining, and fossil fuel extraction. This is the result of growing global market demands for agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. Here, we profile the effects of international trade of forest-risk agricultural and nonagricultural commodities, namely soybean, oil palm, natural rubber, beef, forestry products, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and gemstones on habitat conversion in the Neotropics, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Total estimated forest loss for these regions between 2001 and 2017 was ca 179 million ha. The average percent of commodity-driven permanent deforestation for the period 2001–2015 was highest in Southeast Asia (47%) followed by the Neotropics (26%), South Asia (26%), and Africa (7%). Commodities exports increased significantly between 2000 and 2016 in all primate range regions leading to the widespread conversion of forested land to agricultural fields and an increase in natural resource extraction. In 2016, US $1.1 trillion of natural-resource commodities were traded by countries in primate range regions. The Neotropics accounted for 41% of the total value of these exports, Southeast Asia for 27%, Africa 21%, and South Asia 11%. Major commodity exporters in 2016 were Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Africa, countries of high primate diversity and endemism. Among the top 10 importers were China, the US, Japan, and Switzerland. Primate range countries lag far behind importer nations in food security and gross domestic product per capita, suggesting that trade and commodity-driven land-use have done little to generate wealth and well-being in primate habitat countries. Modeling of land-use and projected extinction of primate species by 2050 and 2100 under a business as usual scenario for 61 primate range countries indicate that each country is expected to see a significant increase in the number of species threatened with extinction. To mitigate this impending crisis, we advocate the “greening” of trade, a global shift toward a low-meat diet, reduced consumption of oil seed, diminished use of tropical timber, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and gemstones from the tropics, accompanied by a stronger and sustained global resolve to regulate and reverse the negative impacts of growing unsustainable global demands and commodity trade on income inequality, and the destruction of primates and their habitats.