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Eads DA, Biggins DE, Wimsatt J, Eisen RJ, Hinnebusch BJ, Matchett MR, Goldberg AR, Livieri TM, Hacker GM, Novak MG, Buttke DE, Grassel SM, Hughes JP, Atiku LA. Exploring and Mitigating Plague for One Health Purposes. CURRENT TROPICAL MEDICINE REPORTS 2022; 9:169-184. [PMID: 39210935 PMCID: PMC11358858 DOI: 10.1007/s40475-022-00265-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
Abstract
Purpose of Review In 2020, the Appropriations Committee for the U.S. House of Representatives directed the CDC to develop a national One Health framework to combat zoonotic diseases, including sylvatic plague, which is caused by the flea-borne bacterium Yersinia pestis. This review builds upon that multisectoral objective. We aim to increase awareness of Y. pestis and to highlight examples of plague mitigation for One Health purposes (i.e., to achieve optimal health outcomes for people, animals, plants, and their shared environment). We draw primarily upon examples from the USA, but also discuss research from Madagascar and Uganda where relevant, as Y. pestis has emerged as a zoonotic threat in those foci. Recent Findings Historically, the bulk of plague research has been directed at the disease in humans. This is not surprising, given that Y. pestis is a scourge of human history. Nevertheless, the ecology of Y. pestis is inextricably linked to other mammals and fleas under natural conditions. Accumulating evidence demonstrates Y. pestis is an unrelenting threat to multiple ecosystems, where the bacterium is capable of significantly reducing native species abundance and diversity while altering competitive and trophic relationships, food web connections, and nutrient cycles. In doing so, Y. pestis transforms ecosystems, causing "shifting baselines syndrome" in humans, where there is a gradual shift in the accepted norms for the condition of the natural environment. Eradication of Y. pestis in nature is difficult to impossible, but effective mitigation is achievable; we discuss flea vector control and One Health implications in this context. Summary There is an acute need to rapidly expand research on Y. pestis, across multiple host and flea species and varied ecosystems of the Western US and abroad, for human and environmental health purposes. The fate of many wildlife species hangs in the balance, and the implications for humans are profound in some regions. Collaborative multisectoral research is needed to define the scope of the problem in each epidemiological context and to identify, refine, and implement appropriate and effective mitigation practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A. Eads
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Avenue Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
| | - Dean E. Biggins
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Avenue Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
| | - Jeffrey Wimsatt
- Department of Medicine, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, USA
| | - Rebecca J. Eisen
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - B. Joseph Hinnebusch
- Laboratory of Bacteriology, Rocky Mountain Laboratories, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Hamilton, MT, USA
| | - Marc R. Matchett
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Lewistown, MT, USA
| | | | | | - Gregory M. Hacker
- Vector-Borne Disease Section, California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Mark G. Novak
- Vector-Borne Disease Section, California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, CA, USA
| | - Danielle E. Buttke
- National Park Service Biological Resources Division and Office of Public Health, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | | | - John P. Hughes
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Black-Footed Ferret Conservation Center, Carr, CO, USA
| | - Linda A. Atiku
- Plague Unit, Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda
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Abstract
Despite the maintenance of YopP/J alleles throughout the human-pathogenic Yersinia lineage, the benefit of YopP/J-induced phagocyte death for Yersinia pathogenesis in animals is not obvious. To determine how the sequence divergence of YopP/J has impacted Yersinia virulence, we examined protein polymorphisms in this type III secreted effector protein across 17 Yersinia species and tested the consequences of polymorphism in a murine model of subacute systemic yersiniosis. Our evolutionary analysis revealed that codon 177 has been subjected to positive selection; the Yersinia enterocolitica residue had been altered from a leucine to a phenylalanine in nearly all Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and Yersinia pestis strains examined. Despite this change being minor, as both leucine and phenylalanine have hydrophobic side chains, reversion of YopJF177 to the ancestral YopJL177 variant yielded a Y. pseudotuberculosis strain with enhanced cytotoxicity toward macrophages, consistent with previous findings. Surprisingly, expression of YopJF177L in the mildly attenuated ksgA- background rendered the strain completely avirulent in mice. Consistent with this hypothesis that YopJ activity relates indirectly to Yersinia pathogenesis in vivo, ksgA- strains lacking functional YopJ failed to kill macrophages but actually regained virulence in animals. Also, treatment with the antiapoptosis drug suramin prevented YopJ-mediated macrophage cytotoxicity and enhanced Y. pseudotuberculosis virulence in vivo. Our results demonstrate that Yersinia-induced cell death is detrimental for bacterial pathogenesis in this animal model of illness and indicate that positive selection has driven YopJ/P and Yersinia evolution toward diminished cytotoxicity and increased virulence, respectively.
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Turner WC, Kamath PL, van Heerden H, Huang YH, Barandongo ZR, Bruce SA, Kausrud K. The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2021; 8:210088. [PMID: 34109041 PMCID: PMC8170194 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.210088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host-parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host-parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence-transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related 'approaches' that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host-parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence-transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence-transmission relationships across a diversity of host-parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wendy C. Turner
- US Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Pauline L. Kamath
- School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
| | - Henriette van Heerden
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, South Africa
| | - Yen-Hua Huang
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Zoe R. Barandongo
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Spencer A. Bruce
- Department of Biological Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA
| | - Kyrre Kausrud
- Section for Epidemiology, Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Ullevålsveien 68, 0454 Oslo, Norway
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Suntsov VV. Genomogenesis of the Plague Bacteria Yersinia pestis as a Process of Mosaic Evolution. RUSS J GENET+ 2021. [DOI: 10.1134/s1022795421020113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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Barbieri R, Signoli M, Chevé D, Costedoat C, Tzortzis S, Aboudharam G, Raoult D, Drancourt M. Yersinia pestis: the Natural History of Plague. Clin Microbiol Rev 2020; 34:e00044-19. [PMID: 33298527 PMCID: PMC7920731 DOI: 10.1128/cmr.00044-19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
The Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis is responsible for deadly plague, a zoonotic disease established in stable foci in the Americas, Africa, and Eurasia. Its persistence in the environment relies on the subtle balance between Y. pestis-contaminated soils, burrowing and nonburrowing mammals exhibiting variable degrees of plague susceptibility, and their associated fleas. Transmission from one host to another relies mainly on infected flea bites, inducing typical painful, enlarged lymph nodes referred to as buboes, followed by septicemic dissemination of the pathogen. In contrast, droplet inhalation after close contact with infected mammals induces primary pneumonic plague. Finally, the rarely reported consumption of contaminated raw meat causes pharyngeal and gastrointestinal plague. Point-of-care diagnosis, early antibiotic treatment, and confinement measures contribute to outbreak control despite residual mortality. Mandatory primary prevention relies on the active surveillance of established plague foci and ectoparasite control. Plague is acknowledged to have infected human populations for at least 5,000 years in Eurasia. Y. pestis genomes recovered from affected archaeological sites have suggested clonal evolution from a common ancestor shared with the closely related enteric pathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and have indicated that ymt gene acquisition during the Bronze Age conferred Y. pestis with ectoparasite transmissibility while maintaining its enteric transmissibility. Three historic pandemics, starting in 541 AD and continuing until today, have been described. At present, the third pandemic has become largely quiescent, with hundreds of human cases being reported mainly in a few impoverished African countries, where zoonotic plague is mostly transmitted to people by rodent-associated flea bites.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Barbieri
- Aix-Marseille University, IRD, MEPHI, IHU Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
- Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EFS, ADES, Marseille, France
- Fondation Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - M Signoli
- Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EFS, ADES, Marseille, France
| | - D Chevé
- Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EFS, ADES, Marseille, France
| | - C Costedoat
- Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EFS, ADES, Marseille, France
| | - S Tzortzis
- Ministère de la Culture, Direction Régionale des Affaires Culturelles de Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Service Régional de l'Archéologie, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - G Aboudharam
- Aix-Marseille University, IRD, MEPHI, IHU Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
- Aix-Marseille University, Faculty of Odontology, Marseille, France
| | - D Raoult
- Aix-Marseille University, IRD, MEPHI, IHU Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
- Fondation Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - M Drancourt
- Aix-Marseille University, IRD, MEPHI, IHU Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
- Fondation Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
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Eads DA, Biggins DE, Gage KL. Ecology and Management of Plague in Diverse Communities of Rodents and Fleas. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2020; 20:888-896. [PMID: 33074791 DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2020.2625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Plague originated in Asia as a flea-borne zoonosis of mammalian hosts. Today, the disease is distributed nearly worldwide. In western United States of America, plague is maintained, transmitted, and amplified in diverse communities of rodents and fleas. We examined flea diversity on three species of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp., PDs) and six species of sympatric small rodents in Montana and Utah, United States of America. Among 2896 fleas, 19 species were identified; 13 were found on PDs and 9 were found on small rodents. In Montana, three flea species were found on PDs; the three species parasitize PDs and mice. In Utah, 12 flea species were found on PDs; the 12 species parasitize PDs, mice, voles, chipmunks, ground squirrels, rock squirrels, and marmots. Diverse flea communities and their willingness to parasitize many types of hosts, across multiple seasons and habitats, may favor plague maintenance and transmission. Flea parasitism on Peromyscus deer mice varied directly with elevation. Fleas are prone to desiccation, and might prosper at higher, mesic elevations; in addition, Peromyscus nest characteristics may vary with elevation. Effective management of plague is critical. Plague management is probably most effective when encompassing communities of rodents and fleas. Treatment of PD burrows with 0.05% deltamethrin dust, which suppressed fleas on PDs for >365 days, suppressed fleas on small rodents for at least 58 days. At one site, deltamethrin suppressed fleas on small rodents for at least 383 days. By simultaneously suppressing fleas on PDs and small rodents, deltamethrin should promote ecosystem resilience and One Health objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A Eads
- United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Dean E Biggins
- United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Kenneth L Gage
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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7
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Brinkerhoff RJ, Rinsland HS, Sato S, Maruyama S, Ray C. Vector-Borne Pathogens in Ectoparasites Collected from High-Elevation Pika Populations. ECOHEALTH 2020; 17:333-344. [PMID: 33200238 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-020-01495-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2019] [Revised: 08/11/2020] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The American pika, Ochotona princeps, is projected to decline throughout North America as climate change reduces its range, and pikas have already disappeared from several locations. In addition to climate, disease spillover from lower elevation mammalian species might affect pikas. We sampled pika fleas in Colorado and Montana across elevations ranging from 2896 to 3612 m and screened them for the presence of DNA from rodent-associated bacterial pathogens (Bartonella species and Yersinia pestis) to test the hypothesis that flea exchange between pikas and rodents may lead to occurrence of rodent-associated pathogens in pika ectoparasites. We collected 275 fleas from 74 individual pikas at 5 sites in Colorado and one site in Montana. We found that 5.5% of 275 pika fleas in this study tested positive for rodent-associated Bartonella DNA but that variation in Bartonella infection prevalence in fleas among sites was not driven by elevation. Specifically, we detected DNA sequences from two loci (gltA and rpoB) that are most similar to Bartonella grahamii isolates collected from rodents in Canada. We did not detect Y. pestis DNA in our survey. Our results demonstrate evidence of rodent-associated flea-borne bacteria in pika fleas. These findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that rodent-associated pathogens could be acquired by pikas. Flea-borne pathogen spillover from rodents to pikas has the potential to exacerbate the more direct effects of climate that have been suggested to drive pika declines.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Jory Brinkerhoff
- Department of Biology, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA, USA.
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
| | | | - Shingo Sato
- Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health, Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Bioresource Sciences, Nihon University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Soichi Maruyama
- Laboratory of Veterinary Public Health, Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Bioresource Sciences, Nihon University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Chris Ray
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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Vallès X, Stenseth NC, Demeure C, Horby P, Mead PS, Cabanillas O, Ratsitorahina M, Rajerison M, Andrianaivoarimanana V, Ramasindrazana B, Pizarro-Cerda J, Scholz HC, Girod R, Hinnebusch BJ, Vigan-Womas I, Fontanet A, Wagner DM, Telfer S, Yazdanpanah Y, Tortosa P, Carrara G, Deuve J, Belmain SR, D’Ortenzio E, Baril L. Human plague: An old scourge that needs new answers. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008251. [PMID: 32853251 PMCID: PMC7451524 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Yersinia pestis, the bacterial causative agent of plague, remains an important threat to human health. Plague is a rodent-borne disease that has historically shown an outstanding ability to colonize and persist across different species, habitats, and environments while provoking sporadic cases, outbreaks, and deadly global epidemics among humans. Between September and November 2017, an outbreak of urban pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, which refocused the attention of the scientific community on this ancient human scourge. Given recent trends and plague's resilience to control in the wild, its high fatality rate in humans without early treatment, and its capacity to disrupt social and healthcare systems, human plague should be considered as a neglected threat. A workshop was held in Paris in July 2018 to review current knowledge about plague and to identify the scientific research priorities to eradicate plague as a human threat. It was concluded that an urgent commitment is needed to develop and fund a strong research agenda aiming to fill the current knowledge gaps structured around 4 main axes: (i) an improved understanding of the ecological interactions among the reservoir, vector, pathogen, and environment; (ii) human and societal responses; (iii) improved diagnostic tools and case management; and (iv) vaccine development. These axes should be cross-cutting, translational, and focused on delivering context-specific strategies. Results of this research should feed a global control and prevention strategy within a "One Health" approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xavier Vallès
- Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Nils Chr. Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Christian Demeure
- Yersinia Research Unit, National Reference Centre “Plague & Other Yersinioses,” WHO Collaborating Research and Reference Centre for Yersinia, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Peter Horby
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Paul S. Mead
- Bacterial Diseases Branch, Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Oswaldo Cabanillas
- Control de Epidemia Desastres y Otras Emergencias Sanitarias, Oficina General de Epidemiologia, Ministerio de Salud, Perúu
| | - Mahery Ratsitorahina
- Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Minoarisoa Rajerison
- Plague Unit, Central Laboratory for Plague, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | | | - Beza Ramasindrazana
- Plague Unit, Central Laboratory for Plague, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Javier Pizarro-Cerda
- Yersinia Research Unit, National Reference Centre “Plague & Other Yersinioses,” WHO Collaborating Research and Reference Centre for Yersinia, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Holger C. Scholz
- Reference Laboratory for Plague, Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Munich, Germany
| | - Romain Girod
- Medical Entomology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - B. Joseph Hinnebusch
- Rocky Mountain Laboratories, National Institute of Health, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Hamilton, Montana, United States of America
| | - Ines Vigan-Womas
- Immunology of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Arnaud Fontanet
- Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- PACRI unit, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France
| | - David M. Wagner
- The Pathogen and Microbiome Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, United States of America
| | - Sandra Telfer
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Yazdan Yazdanpanah
- REACTing, Inserm, Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France
- Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard, AP-HP, Paris, France
| | - Pablo Tortosa
- Université de La Réunion, Unité Mixte de Recherche Processus Infectieux en Milieu Insulaire Tropical, La Réunion, France
| | - Guia Carrara
- REACTing, Inserm, Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France
| | - Jane Deuve
- Department of International Affairs, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Steven R. Belmain
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham Maritime, Kent, United Kingdom
| | - Eric D’Ortenzio
- REACTing, Inserm, Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France
- Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard, AP-HP, Paris, France
| | - Laurence Baril
- Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
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Biggins DE, Eads DA. Prairie Dogs, Persistent Plague, Flocking Fleas, and Pernicious Positive Feedback. Front Vet Sci 2019; 6:75. [PMID: 30984769 PMCID: PMC6447679 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2019.00075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2018] [Accepted: 02/21/2019] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a deadly flea-borne disease that remains a threat to public health nearly worldwide and is particularly disruptive ecologically where it has been introduced. We review hypotheses regarding maintenance and transmission of Y. pestis, emphasizing recent data from North America supporting maintenance by persistent transmission that results in sustained non-epizootic (but variable) rates of mortality in hosts. This maintenance mechanism may facilitate periodic epizootic eruptions "in place" because the need for repeated reinvasion from disjunct sources is eliminated. Resulting explosive outbreaks that spread rapidly in time and space are likely enhanced by synergistic positive feedback (PFB) cycles involving flea vectors, hosts, and the plague bacterium itself. Although PFB has been implied in plague literature for at least 50 years, we propose this mechanism, particularly with regard to flea responses, as central to epizootic plague rather than a phenomenon worthy of just peripheral mention. We also present new data on increases in flea:host ratios resulting from recreational shooting and poisoning as possible triggers for the transition from enzootic maintenance to PFB cycles and epizootic explosions. Although plague outbreaks have received much historic attention, PFB cycles that result in decimation of host populations lead to speculation that epizootic eruptions might not be part of the adaptive evolutionary strategy of Y. pestis but might instead be a tolerated intermittent cost of its modus operandi. We also speculate that there may be mammal communities where epizootics, as we define them, are rare or absent. Absence of plague epizootics might translate into reduced public health risk but does not necessarily equate to inconsequential ecologic impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dean E. Biggins
- United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, United States
| | - David A. Eads
- United States Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, CO, United States
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
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Genesis of Flea-Born Transmission of Plague Microbe, Yersinia pestis: Two Approachs – Molecular-Genetic and Ecological Ones. PROBLEMS OF PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS INFECTIONS 2018. [DOI: 10.21055/0370-1069-2018-2-37-44] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Two approaches to studying the origin and transmission mechanism of the flea-borne plague pathogen, Yersinia pestis: molecular-genetic and ecological ones – are considered in this review. The molecular genetic approach is based on saltation evolutionary ideology and relies upon the phenomenon of horizontal gene transfer of pla and ymt as critical evolutionary events. Further deletion of some structural and regulatory genes optimized “blockage” mechanism of transmission. The Ecological approach is based on the modern synthetic theory of evolution. It posits a gradual population-genetic transformation in the Marmot – Flea (Marmota sibirica – Oropsylla silantiewi) transitional (heterothermal, heteroimmune) host-parasite system in Late Pleistocene – Holocene epochs. The best prospects for disclosing the mechanisms of evolutionary formation of flea-borne Y. pestis transmission consist in the synthesis of molecular-genetic and ecological approaches.
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Destoumieux-Garzón D, Mavingui P, Boetsch G, Boissier J, Darriet F, Duboz P, Fritsch C, Giraudoux P, Le Roux F, Morand S, Paillard C, Pontier D, Sueur C, Voituron Y. The One Health Concept: 10 Years Old and a Long Road Ahead. Front Vet Sci 2018; 5:14. [PMID: 29484301 PMCID: PMC5816263 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2018.00014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 298] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2017] [Accepted: 01/22/2018] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Over the past decade, a significant increase in the circulation of infectious agents was observed. With the spread and emergence of epizootics, zoonoses, and epidemics, the risks of pandemics became more and more critical. Human and animal health has also been threatened by antimicrobial resistance, environmental pollution, and the development of multifactorial and chronic diseases. This highlighted the increasing globalization of health risks and the importance of the human-animal-ecosystem interface in the evolution and emergence of pathogens. A better knowledge of causes and consequences of certain human activities, lifestyles, and behaviors in ecosystems is crucial for a rigorous interpretation of disease dynamics and to drive public policies. As a global good, health security must be understood on a global scale and from a global and crosscutting perspective, integrating human health, animal health, plant health, ecosystems health, and biodiversity. In this study, we discuss how crucial it is to consider ecological, evolutionary, and environmental sciences in understanding the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases and in facing the challenges of antimicrobial resistance. We also discuss the application of the "One Health" concept to non-communicable chronic diseases linked to exposure to multiple stresses, including toxic stress, and new lifestyles. Finally, we draw up a list of barriers that need removing and the ambitions that we must nurture for the effective application of the "One Health" concept. We conclude that the success of this One Health concept now requires breaking down the interdisciplinary barriers that still separate human and veterinary medicine from ecological, evolutionary, and environmental sciences. The development of integrative approaches should be promoted by linking the study of factors underlying stress responses to their consequences on ecosystem functioning and evolution. This knowledge is required for the development of novel control strategies inspired by environmental mechanisms leading to desired equilibrium and dynamics in healthy ecosystems and must provide in the near future a framework for more integrated operational initiatives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Delphine Destoumieux-Garzón
- CNRS, Interactions Hôtes-Pathogènes-Environnements (IHPE), UMR5244, Université de Perpignan Via Domitia, Université de Montpellier, Ifremer, Montpellier, France
| | - Patrick Mavingui
- Université de La Reunion, UMR PIMIT (Processus Infectieux en Milieu Insulaire Tropical), INSERM 1187, CNRS 9192, IRD 249, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France
- UMR Ecologie Microbienne, CNRS, INRA, VetAgro Sup, Claude Bernard University Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Gilles Boetsch
- UMI 3189 “Environnement, Santé, Sociétés”, Faculty of Medicine, Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar-Fann, Senegal
- Téssékéré International Human-Environment Observatory Labex DRIIM, CNRS and Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Jérôme Boissier
- Université de Perpignan Via Domitia, Interactions Hôtes-Pathogènes-Environnements (IHPE), UMR5244, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de Montpellier, Perpignan, France
| | - Frédéric Darriet
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs, Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), IRD, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Priscilla Duboz
- UMI 3189 “Environnement, Santé, Sociétés”, Faculty of Medicine, Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar-Fann, Senegal
- Téssékéré International Human-Environment Observatory Labex DRIIM, CNRS and Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Clémentine Fritsch
- Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS/Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté Usc, INRA, Besançon, France
| | - Patrick Giraudoux
- Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS/Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté Usc, INRA, Besançon, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
| | - Frédérique Le Roux
- Ifremer, Unité Physiologie Fonctionnelle des Organismes Marins, Plouzané, France
| | - Serge Morand
- Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution (ISEM), UMR 5554, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, CIRAD, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France
- UPR ASTRE, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
| | - Christine Paillard
- Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Environnement Marin (LEMAR), Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR 6539, CNRS, UBO, IRD, Ifremer, Plouzané, France
| | - Dominique Pontier
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive UMR5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France
- LabEx Ecofect, Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Infectious Diseases, University of Lyon, Lyon, France
| | - Cédric Sueur
- Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, IPHC, UMR 7178, Strasbourg, France
| | - Yann Voituron
- Laboratoire d’Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Naturels et Anthropisés, UMR 5023, CNRS, Université Claude Bernard Lyon1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
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12
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Markman DW, Antolin MF, Bowen RA, Wheat WH, Woods M, Gonzalez-Juarrero M, Jackson M. Yersinia pestis Survival and Replication in Potential Ameba Reservoir. Emerg Infect Dis 2018; 24:294-302. [PMID: 29350155 PMCID: PMC5782900 DOI: 10.3201/eid2402.171065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Plague ecology is characterized by sporadic epizootics, then periods of dormancy. Building evidence suggests environmentally ubiquitous amebae act as feral macrophages and hosts to many intracellular pathogens. We conducted environmental genetic surveys and laboratory co-culture infection experiments to assess whether plague bacteria were resistant to digestion by 5 environmental ameba species. First, we demonstrated that Yersinia pestis is resistant or transiently resistant to various ameba species. Second, we showed that Y. pestis survives and replicates intracellularly within Dictyostelium discoideum amebae for ˃48 hours postinfection, whereas control bacteria were destroyed in <1 hour. Finally, we found that Y. pestis resides within ameba structures synonymous with those found in infected human macrophages, for which Y. pestis is a competent pathogen. Evidence supporting amebae as potential plague reservoirs stresses the importance of recognizing pathogen-harboring amebae as threats to public health, agriculture, conservation, and biodefense.
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13
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Shoemaker WR, Lennon JT. Evolution with a seed bank: The population genetic consequences of microbial dormancy. Evol Appl 2018; 11:60-75. [PMID: 29302272 PMCID: PMC5748526 DOI: 10.1111/eva.12557] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2017] [Accepted: 09/08/2017] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Dormancy is a bet‐hedging strategy that allows organisms to persist through conditions that are suboptimal for growth and reproduction by entering a reversible state of reduced metabolic activity. Dormancy allows a population to maintain a reservoir of genetic and phenotypic diversity (i.e., a seed bank) that can contribute to the long‐term survival of a population. This strategy can be potentially adaptive and has long been of interest to ecologists and evolutionary biologists. However, comparatively little is known about how dormancy influences the fundamental evolutionary forces of genetic drift, mutation, selection, recombination, and gene flow. Here, we investigate how seed banks affect the processes underpinning evolution by reviewing existing theory, implementing novel simulations, and determining how and when dormancy can influence evolution as a population genetic process. We extend our analysis to examine how seed banks can alter macroevolutionary processes, including rates of speciation and extinction. Through the lens of population genetic theory, we can understand the extent that seed banks influence the evolutionary dynamics of microorganisms as well as other taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jay T Lennon
- Department of Biology Indiana University Bloomington IN USA
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14
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Richgels KLD, Russell RE, Bron GM, Rocke TE. Evaluation of Yersinia pestis Transmission Pathways for Sylvatic Plague in Prairie Dog Populations in the Western U.S. ECOHEALTH 2016; 13:415-427. [PMID: 27234457 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-016-1133-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2015] [Revised: 01/21/2016] [Accepted: 04/15/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine L D Richgels
- United States Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 6006, Schroeder Rd, Madison, WI, USA
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Robin E Russell
- United States Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 6006, Schroeder Rd, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Gebbiena M Bron
- United States Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 6006, Schroeder Rd, Madison, WI, USA
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Tonie E Rocke
- United States Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 6006, Schroeder Rd, Madison, WI, USA.
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15
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Yang R, Cui Y, Bi Y. Perspectives on Yersinia pestis: A Model for Studying Zoonotic Pathogens. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2016; 918:377-391. [PMID: 27722871 DOI: 10.1007/978-94-024-0890-4_14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Yersinia pestis is a typical zoonotic bacterial pathogen. The following reasons make this pathogen a model for studying zoonotic pathogens: (1) Its unique lifestyle makes Y. pestis an ideal model for studying host-vector-environment-pathogen interactions; (2) population diversity characters in Y. pestis render it a model species for studying monomorphic bacterial evolution; (3) the pathogenic features of bacteria provide us with good opportunities to study human immune responses; (4) typical animal and vector models of Y. pestis infection create opportunities for experimental studies on pathogenesis and evolution; and (5) repeated pandemics and local outbreaks provide us with clues about the infectious disease outbreaks that have occurred in human history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruifu Yang
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, No. 20, Dongdajie, Fengtai, Beijing, 100071, China.
| | - Yujun Cui
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, No. 20, Dongdajie, Fengtai, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Yujing Bi
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, No. 20, Dongdajie, Fengtai, Beijing, 100071, China
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16
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Heier L, Viljugrein H, Storvik GO. Persistence of plague outbreaks among great gerbils in Kazakhstan: effects of host population dynamics. POPUL ECOL 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10144-015-0500-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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17
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Liang J, Duan R, Xia S, Hao Q, Yang J, Xiao Y, Qiu H, Shi G, Wang S, Gu W, Wang C, Wang M, Tian K, Luo L, Yang M, Tian H, Wang J, Jing H, Wang X. Ecology and geographic distribution of Yersinia enterocolitica among livestock and wildlife in China. Vet Microbiol 2015; 178:125-31. [PMID: 25987302 DOI: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2015.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2014] [Revised: 04/30/2015] [Accepted: 05/05/2015] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The results in this study show the prevalence of Yersinia enterocolitica varies in different animal species and regions of China. The highest prevalence is among pigs (12.91%), followed by dogs (9.80%), Ochotona curzoniae (plateau pica) (6.76%), chickens (4.50%), rodents (3.40%), cattle (2.78%) and sheep (0.89%). Pathogenic isolates comprised the majority of the Y. enterocolitica recovered from pigs (73.50%) and dogs (59.44%); whereas the nonpathogenic Y. enterocolitica made up most of poultry and wildlife recovered strains. A correlation analysis comparing the prevalence and geographic factors showed the isolation rate of Y. enterocolitica in pigs and dogs was negatively correlated with elevation (r=-0.50, P<0.05) and annual average air temperature (r=-0.43, P<0.05), but there was positive correlation with annual precipitation (r=0.43, P<0.05); conversely, the isolation rate from wildlife is positively correlated with elevation (r=0.3, P<0.05) contrary to the result seen in livestock. Twelve novel biotype 2 pathogenic Y. enterocolitica carried ail and ystB virulence genes, and one biotype 1A nonpathogenic strain positive with ail, ystB and ystA genes were isolated from Microtus fuscus (Qinghai vole) on plague foci of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. The PFGE pattern K6GN11C30021 was predominant in pigs (44.25%) and patients (41.18%); K6GN11C30068 was predominant in dogs (40.16%). Animal isolates from the same region shared the same pattern (K6GN11C30021 and K6GN11C30012), indicating they may be from the same clone and arose through cross infection. Moreover, the identical PFGE pattern among local animals and diarrhea patients suggested that the animals may be the source of infections in these areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junrong Liang
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Ran Duan
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Shengli Xia
- Henan Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Qiong Hao
- Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yinchuan, China
| | - Jinchuan Yang
- Xuzhou Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xuzhou, China
| | - Yuchun Xiao
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Haiyan Qiu
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Guoxiang Shi
- Zhejiang Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Shukun Wang
- Yuxi Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuxi, China
| | - Wenpeng Gu
- Yunnan Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Chunxiang Wang
- Qinghai Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
| | - Mingliu Wang
- Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanning, China
| | - Kecheng Tian
- Guizhou Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, China
| | - Longze Luo
- Sichuan Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, China
| | - Meng Yang
- Jiangxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang, China
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Jiazheng Wang
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Huaiqi Jing
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China.
| | - Xin Wang
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Beijing, China.
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18
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Deletion of Braun lipoprotein and plasminogen-activating protease-encoding genes attenuates Yersinia pestis in mouse models of bubonic and pneumonic plague. Infect Immun 2014; 82:2485-503. [PMID: 24686064 DOI: 10.1128/iai.01595-13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Currently, there is no FDA-approved vaccine against Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of bubonic and pneumonic plague. Since both humoral immunity and cell-mediated immunity are essential in providing the host with protection against plague, we developed a live-attenuated vaccine strain by deleting the Braun lipoprotein (lpp) and plasminogen-activating protease (pla) genes from Y. pestis CO92. The Δlpp Δpla double isogenic mutant was highly attenuated in evoking both bubonic and pneumonic plague in a mouse model. Further, animals immunized with the mutant by either the intranasal or the subcutaneous route were significantly protected from developing subsequent pneumonic plague. In mice, the mutant poorly disseminated to peripheral organs and the production of proinflammatory cytokines concurrently decreased. Histopathologically, reduced damage to the lungs and livers of mice infected with the Δlpp Δpla double mutant compared to the level of damage in wild-type (WT) CO92-challenged animals was observed. The Δlpp Δpla mutant-immunized mice elicited a humoral immune response to the WT bacterium, as well as to CO92-specific antigens. Moreover, T cells from mutant-immunized animals exhibited significantly higher proliferative responses, when stimulated ex vivo with heat-killed WT CO92 antigens, than mice immunized with the same sublethal dose of WT CO92. Likewise, T cells from the mutant-immunized mice produced more gamma interferon (IFN-γ) and interleukin-4. These animals had an increasing number of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α)-producing CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells than WT CO92-infected mice. These data emphasize the role of TNF-α and IFN-γ in protecting mice against pneumonic plague. Overall, our studies provide evidence that deletion of the lpp and pla genes acts synergistically in protecting animals against pneumonic plague, and we have demonstrated an immunological basis for this protection.
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Schmid BV, Jesse M, Wilschut LI, Viljugrein H, Heesterbeek JAP. Local persistence and extinction of plague in a metapopulation of great gerbil burrows, Kazakhstan. Epidemics 2012; 4:211-8. [PMID: 23351373 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2012] [Revised: 10/16/2012] [Accepted: 12/17/2012] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Speculation on how the bacterium Yersinia pestis re-emerges after years of absence in the Prebalkhash region in Kazakhstan has been ongoing for half a century, but the mechanism is still unclear. One of the theories is that plague persists in its reservoir host (the great gerbil) in so-called hotspots, i.e. small regions in which the conditions remain favourable for plague to persist during times where the conditions in the Prebalkhash region as a whole have become unfavourable for plague persistence. In this paper we use a metapopulation model that describes the dynamics of the great gerbil. With this model we study the minimum size of an individual hotspot and the combined size of multiple hotspots in the Prebalkhash region that would be required for Y. pestis to persist through an inter-epizootic period. We show that the combined area of hotspots required for plague persistence is so large that it would be unlikely to have been missed by existing plague surveillance. This suggests that persistence of plague in that region cannot solely be explained by the existence of hotspots, and therefore other hypotheses, such as survival in multiple host species, and persistence in fleas or in the soil should be considered as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- B V Schmid
- Utrecht University, The Netherlands; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Norway.
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