Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate

Proto-dolomite spherulites with heterogeneous interior precipitated in brackish water cultivation of freshwater cyanobacterium Leptolyngbya boryana

Primary dolomite is believed to be formed through cyanobacterial calcification, yet the details and mechanisms of this process are not fully understood. In this study, a freshwater filamentous cyanobacterium, Leptolyngbya boryana, was cultured and domesticated in artificial freshwater and brackish solutions with various Mg/Ca ratios. The hydrochemistry, the extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) composition, and precipitate mineralogy in the medium were monitored. The results showed that the L. boryana induced proto-dolomite precipitation in brackish medium with salinity of 1.5 % and Mg/Ca ratio of 5. The proto-dolomite in this study has a "double spherical" appearance and a hollow core, which may have originally been filled by the complex composed of EPS and amorphous CaMg carbonate. With regard to elemental composition, the cyanobacterially-induced proto-dolomite is rich in calcium inside and magnesium-rich on the surface, and cyanobacterial organic matter is sealed inside the particles during spherulite growth. In this study, the accelerators for Mg2+ to enter the carbonate lattice mainly include extracellular acidic amino acids and polysaccharides. The changes of these promoters among different cultures were related to the growth state of cyanobacteria under salinity stress. The polysaccharides concentration has a significant increasing in the dolomite-precipitating medium, indicating that it may be the main promoter of proto-dolomite precipitation and significantly increases the amount of Mg2+ precipitation. At the meantime, the amount of precipitated Ca2+ was suppressed by increasing salinity and Mg2+, thus leading to the precipitation of proto-dolomite in this shifting process. This study can potentially provide a reference for explaining the dolomite (proto-dolomite) precipitation in aerobic brackish environment where cyanobacteria thrive.

Tree-ring anatomy of Pinus cembra trees opens new avenues for climate reconstructions in the European Alps

Tree rings form the backbone of high-resolution palaeoclimatology and represent one of the most frequently used proxy to reconstruct climate variability of the Common Era. In the European Alps, reconstructions were often based on tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) series, with a focus on European larch. By contrast, only a very limited number of dendroclimatic studies exists for long-lived, multi-centennial Pinus cembra, despite the widespread occurrence of the species at treeline sites across the European Alps. This lack of reconstructions can be ascribed to the difficulties encountered in past studies in extracting a robust climate signal from TRW and MXD chronologies. In this study, we tested various wood anatomical parameters from P. cembra as proxies for the reconstruction of past air temperatures. To this end, we measured anatomical cell parameters and TRW of old-growth trees from the God da Tamangur forest stand, known for being the highest pure, and continuous P. cembra forest in Europe. We demonstrate that several wood anatomical parameters allow robust reconstruction of past temperature variability at annual to multidecadal timescales. Best results are obtained with maximum latewood radial cell wall thickness (CWTrad) measured at 40 μm radial band width. Over the 1920-2017 period, the CWTrad chronology explains 62 % and >80 % of interannual and decadal variability of air temperatures during a time window corresponding roughly with the growing season. These values exceed those found in past work on P. cembra and even exceed the values reported for MXD chronologies built with L. decidua and hitherto considered the gold standard for dendroclimatic reconstructions in the European Alps. The wood anatomical analysis of P. cembra records therefore unveils a dormant potential and opens new avenues for a species that has been considered unsuitable for climate reconstructions so far.

Cooling and Contraction of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere From 2002 to 2021

We examine the thermal structure of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using observations from 2002 through 2021 from the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. These observations show that the MLT has significantly cooled and contracted between the years 2002 and 2019 (the year of the most recent solar minimum) due to a combination of a decline in the intensity of the 11-year solar cycle and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2.) During this time the thickness of atmosphere between the 1  and 10-4 hPa pressure surfaces (approximately 48 and 105 km) has contracted by 1,333 m, of which 342 m is attributed to increasing CO2. All other pressure surfaces in the MLT have similarly contracted. We further postulate that the MLT in the two most recent solar minima (2008-2009 and 2019-2020) was very likely the coldest and thinnest since the beginning of the Industrial Age. The sensitivity of the MLT to a doubling of CO2 is shown to be -7.5 K based on observed trends in temperature and growth rates of CO2. Colder temperatures observed at 10-4 hPa in 2019 than in the prior solar minimum in 2009 may be due to a decrease of 5% in solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge band spectral region (175-200 nm).

Beyond carbon flux partitioning: Carbon allocation and nonstructural carbon dynamics inferred from continuous fluxes

Carbon (C) allocation and nonstructural carbon (NSC) dynamics play essential roles in plant growth and survival under stress and disturbance. However, quantitative understanding of these processes remains limited. Here we propose a framework where we connect commonly measured carbon cycle components (eddy covariance fluxes of canopy CO₂ exchange, soil CO₂ efflux, and allometry-based biomass and net primary production) by a simple mass balance model to derive ecosystem-level NSC dynamics (NSC_i ), C translocation (dC_i ), and the biomass production efficiency (BPE_i ) in above- and belowground plant (i = agp and bgp) compartments. We applied this framework to two long-term monitored loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations of different ages in North Carolina and characterized the variations of NSC and allocation in years under normal and drought conditions. The results indicated that the young stand did not have net NSC flux at the annual scale, whereas the mature stand stored a near-constant proportion of new assimilates as NSC every year under normal conditions, which was comparable in magnitude to new structural growth. Roots consumed NSC in drought and stored a significant amount of NSC post drought. The above- and belowground dC_i and BPE_i varied more from year to year in the young stand and approached a relatively stable pattern in the mature stand. The belowground BPE_bgp differed the most between the young and mature stands and was most responsive to drought. With the internal C dynamics quantified, this framework may also improve biomass production estimation, which reveals the variations resulting from droughts. Overall, these quantified ecosystem-scale dynamics were consistent with existing evidence from tree-based manipulative experiments and measurements and demonstrated that combining the continuous fluxes as proposed here can provide additional information about plant internal C dynamics. Given that it is based on broadly available flux data, the proposed framework is promising to improve the allocation algorithms in ecosystem C cycle models and offers new insights into observed variability in soil-plant-climate interactions.

Wood Formation Modeling - A Research Review and Future Perspectives

Wood formation has received considerable attention across various research fields as a key process to model. Historical and contemporary models of wood formation from various disciplines have encapsulated hypotheses such as the influence of external (e.g., climatic) or internal (e.g., hormonal) factors on the successive stages of wood cell differentiation. This review covers 17 wood formation models from three different disciplines, the earliest from 1968 and the latest from 2020. The described processes, as well as their external and internal drivers and their level of complexity, are discussed. This work is the first systematic cataloging, characterization, and process-focused review of wood formation models. Remaining open questions concerning wood formation processes are identified, and relate to: (1) the extent of hormonal influence on the final tree ring structure; (2) the mechanism underlying the transition from earlywood to latewood in extratropical regions; and (3) the extent to which carbon plays a role as "active" driver or "passive" substrate for growth. We conclude by arguing that wood formation models remain to be fully exploited, with the potential to contribute to studies concerning individual tree carbon sequestration-storage dynamics and regional to global carbon sequestration dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models.

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (β) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (γ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ. We show that the β-feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm^-1 for 1880-2017, whereas the γ-feedback increases from -33 ± 14 GtC K^-1 on a decadal scale to -122 ± 60 GtC K^-1 on a centennial scale for 1000-1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO₂ emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.

Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case

Effective management decisions regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be hampered by the lack of scientific tools for modeling future land use change. This study addresses methodological principles for land use development scenario modeling assumed for use in processes of GHG accounting and management. Associated land use policy implications in Lithuania are also discussed. Data on land uses, available from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected for GHG accounting from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the country, as well as freely available geographic information, were tested as an input for modeling land use development in the country. The modeling was implemented using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler. Calibration of the modeling approach using historical land use data indicated that land use types important for GHG management in the LULUCF sector were predicted with an accuracy above 80% during a five-year period into the future, while the prediction accuracy for forest and built-up land was 96% or more. Based on several land management scenarios tested, it was predicted that the LULUCF sector in Lithuania will accumulate CO2, with the forest land use type contributing most to CO2 absorption. Key measures to improve the GHG balance and carbon stock changes were suggested to be the afforestation of abandoned or unused agricultural land and prevention of the conversion of grassland into producing land.

Climate network approach reveals the modes of CO2 concentration to surface air temperature

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is expected to be the main factor of global warming. The relation between CO₂ concentrations and surface air temperature (SAT) has been found related to Rossby waves based on a multi-layer complex network approach. However, the significant relations between CO₂ and SAT occur in the South Hemisphere that is not that much influenced by human activities may offer not enough information to formulate targeted carbon reduction policies. Here, we address it by removing the effects of the Rossby waves to reconstruct CO₂ concentrations and SAT multi-layer complex network. We uncover that the CO₂ concentrations are strongly associated with the surrounding SAT regions. The influential regions of CO₂ on SAT occur over eastern Asia, West Asia, North Africa, the coast of North American, and Western Europe. It is shown that CO₂ over Siberia in phase with the SAT variability in eastern East Asia. Indeed, CO₂ concentration variability is causing effects on the recent warming of SAT in some middle latitude regions. Furthermore, sensitive parameters that CO₂ impacts SAT of top 15 carbon emissions countries have been identified. These countries are significantly responsible for global warming, giving implications for carbon emissions reductions. The methodology and results presented here not only facilitate further research in regions of increased sensitivity to the warming resulting from CO₂ concentrations but also can formulate strategies and countermeasures for carbon emission and carbon reduction.

Greenhouse gas emissions from Baltic coastal lakes

Coastal lakes (CL) act as limnetic-β-oligohaline systems located on non-tidal coastlines in fresh and salt water mixing zone. Owing to considerable terrestrial nutrient input and a high autochthonous productivity CLs release greenhouse gases (GHG) to the ambient atmosphere, however, neither emission from the system was assessed nor controls on the emission were recognized so far. In this study we attempted to quantify diffusive emissions of CH₄, CO₂ and N₂O from CLs based on data collected from seven lakes located on a south coast of the Baltic Sea in Poland. Lake water samples were collected with quarterly resolution along salinity, water depth and wind fetch gradients. From our data it emerged that the concentrations of GHGs were determined by temperature. CH₄ showed dependence on salinity, lake water depth and wind fetch. N₂O was controlled by dissolved O₂ and NO₃^- and CO₂ was largely related to wind fetch. It also appeared that concentrations of N₂O and CO₂ were influenced by terrestrial nutrient input. The mean fluxes of CH₄, CO₂ and N₂O for the whole system were 21.7 mg·m^-2·d^-1, 12.7 g·m^-2·d^-1 and 0.74 mg·m^-2·d^-1, respectively which was equivalent to 7.9 g CH₄·m^-2·y^-1, 4.6 kg CO₂·m^-2·y^-1 and 269 mg N₂O·m^-2·y^-1. CH₄ and N₂O were released throughout the year and CO₂ was predominantly emitted during winter. We showed that diffusive emissions of the GHGs showed relationships to the surface area of the lakes as well as the ratio of catchment area to lake area (CA/LA). The study would benefit from further extension with higher resolution analyses of the lakes over longer timescales and quantification of ebullitive GHG emission (CH₄ in particular).

Strong overestimation of water-use efficiency responses to rising CO2 in tree-ring studies

The carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³ C) in tree rings is commonly used to derive estimates of the assimilation-to-stomatal conductance rate of trees, that is, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). Recent studies have observed increased iWUE in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (C_a ), in many different species, genera and biomes. However, increasing rates of iWUE vary widely from one study to another, likely because numerous covarying factors are involved. Here, we quantified changes in iWUE of two widely distributed boreal conifers using tree samples from a forest inventory network that were collected across a wide range of growing conditions (assessed using the site index, SI), developmental stages and stand histories. Using tree-ring isotopes analysis, we assessed the magnitude of increase in iWUE after accounting for the effects of tree size, stand age, nitrogen deposition, climate and SI. We also estimated how growth conditions have modulated tree physiological responses to rising C_a . We found that increases in tree size and stand age greatly influenced iWUE. The effect of C_a on iWUE was strongly reduced after accounting for these two variables. iWUE increased in response to C_a , mostly in trees growing on fertile stands, whereas iWUE remained almost unchanged on poor sites. Our results suggest that past studies could have overestimated the CO₂ effect on iWUE, potentially leading to biased inferences about the future net carbon balance of the boreal forest. We also observed that this CO₂ effect is weakening, which could affect the future capacity of trees to resist and recover from drought episodes.

No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era

Earth's climate history is often understood by breaking it down into constituent climatic epochs¹. Over the Common Era (the past 2,000 years) these epochs, such as the Little Ice Age^2-4, have been characterized as having occurred at the same time across extensive spatial scales⁵. Although the rapid global warming seen in observations over the past 150 years does show nearly global coherence⁶, the spatiotemporal coherence of climate epochs earlier in the Common Era has yet to be robustly tested. Here we use global palaeoclimate reconstructions for the past 2,000 years, and find no evidence for preindustrial globally coherent cold and warm epochs. In particular, we find that the coldest epoch of the last millennium-the putative Little Ice Age-is most likely to have experienced the coldest temperatures during the fifteenth century in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, during the seventeenth century in northwestern Europe and southeastern North America, and during the mid-nineteenth century over most of the remaining regions. Furthermore, the spatial coherence that does exist over the preindustrial Common Era is consistent with the spatial coherence of stochastic climatic variability. This lack of spatiotemporal coherence indicates that preindustrial forcing was not sufficient to produce globally synchronous extreme temperatures at multidecadal and centennial timescales. By contrast, we find that the warmest period of the past two millennia occurred during the twentieth century for more than 98 per cent of the globe. This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures⁵, but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years.

Climate warming and tree carbon use efficiency in a whole-tree 13 CO2 tracer study

Autotrophic respiration is a major driver of the global C cycle and may contribute a positive climate warming feedback through increased atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ . The extent of this feedback depends on plants' ability to acclimate respiration to maintain a constant carbon use efficiency (CUE). We quantified respiratory partitioning of gross primary production (GPP) and CUE of field-grown trees in a long-term warming experiment (+3°C). We delivered a ¹³ C-CO₂ pulse to whole tree crowns and chased that pulse in the respiration of leaves, whole crowns, roots, and soil. We also measured the isotopic composition of soil microbial biomass and the respiration rates of leaves and whole crowns. We documented homeostatic respiratory acclimation of foliar and whole-crown respiration rates; the trees adjusted to experimental warming such that leaf-level respiration rates were not increased. Experimental warming had no detectable impact on respiratory partitioning or mean residence times. Of the ¹³ C label acquired by the trees, aboveground respiration consumed 10%, belowground respiration consumed 40%, and the remaining 50% was retained. Experimental warming of +3°C did not alter respiratory partitioning at the scale of entire trees, suggesting that complete acclimation of respiration to warming is likely to dampen a positive climate warming feedback.

Acceleration of dolomitization by zinc in saline waters

Dolomite (CaMg(CO₃)₂) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Yet, the chemical mechanisms that catalyze its formation remain an enigma. Here, using batch reactor experiments, we demonstrate an unexpected acceleration of dolomite formation by zinc in saline fluids, reflecting a not uncommon spatial association of dolomite with Mississippi Valley-type ores. The acceleration correlates with dissolved zinc concentration, irrespective of the zinc source tested (ZnCl₂ and ZnO). Moreover, the addition of dissolved zinc counteracts the inhibiting effect of dissolved sulfate on dolomite formation. Integration with previous studies enables us to develop an understanding of the dolomitization pathway. Our findings suggest that the fluids’ high ionic strength and zinc complexation facilitate magnesium ion dehydration, resulting in a dramatic decrease in induction time. This study establishes a previously unrecognized role of zinc in dolomite formation, and may help explain the changes in dolomite abundance through geological time.

The reason for dolomite being widespread in ancient rocks remains an unsolved conundrum and artificial attempts to form well-ordered dolomite at ambient conditions have proven very challenging. Here, the authors provide laboratory experiments that show the acceleration of dolomite formation via dissolved zinc.

Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy data quality and spatial coverage is the key factor to increase the quality of future climate reconstructions, while the total number of proxy records and reconstruction methodology play a smaller role.

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions

The net ecosystem CO2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10, defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) rates with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG ) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR ). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. In addition, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO2 with climate warming.

Cassava production as a climate change adaptation strategy in Chilonga Ward, Chiredzi District, Zimbabwe

This study sought to pilot a range of long-term adaptation measures in the agriculture sector because of climate change shocks. Past droughts in Zimbabwe have had devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts in rural areas where livelihoods mainly depend on agriculture. Over the past few years, many parts of Zimbabwe have been experiencing extreme events. The study sought to address the following objectives to describe smallholder farmers' knowledge of climate change variability and change in Chilonga Ward and to explore the potential of cassava production as a climate change adaptation strategy in Chiredzi. An assessment of the impact of cassava production on rural livelihoods as a climate change adaptation strategy was also done. Focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, desk research and observation were the tools used to collect data. The results show that cassava has an extensive root system that can penetrate poor soils which may not support crops like maize. Zimbabwe has to increase cassava production as its tubers can be value added to produce a range of products that include livestock feed and porridge.

Assessment of Carbon Stocks in the Topsoil Using Random Forest and Remote Sensing Images

Wetland soils are able to exhibit both consumption and production of greenhouse gases, and they play an important role in the regulation of the global carbon (C) cycle. Still, it is challenging to accurately evaluate the actual amount of C stored in wetlands. The incorporation of remote sensing data into digital soil models has great potential to assess C stocks in wetland soils. Our objectives were (i) to develop C stock prediction models utilizing remote sensing images and environmental ancillary data, (ii) to identify the prime environmental predictor variables that explain the spatial distribution of soil C, and (iii) to assess the amount of C stored in the top 20-cm soils of a prominent nutrient-enriched wetland. We collected a total of 108 soil cores at two soil depths (0-10 cm and 10-20 cm) in the Water Conservation Area 2A, FL. We developed random forest models to predict soil C stocks using field observation data, environmental ancillary data, and spectral data derived from remote sensing images, including Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (spatial resolution: 10 m), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (30 m), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (250 m). The random forest models showed high performance to predict C stocks, and variable importance revealed that hydrology was the major environmental factor explaining the spatial distribution of soil C stocks in Water Conservation Area 2A. Our results showed that this area stores about 4.2 Tg (4.2 Mt) of C in the top 20-cm soils.

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Does physiological acclimation to climate warming stabilize the ratio of canopy respiration to photosynthesis?

Given the contrasting short-term temperature dependences of gross primary production (GPP) and autotrophic respiration, the fraction of GPP respired by trees is predicted to increase with warming, providing a positive feedback to climate change. However, physiological acclimation may dampen or eliminate this response. We measured the fluxes of aboveground respiration (Ra ), GPP and their ratio (Ra /GPP) in large, field-grown Eucalyptus tereticornis trees exposed to ambient or warmed air temperatures (+3°C). We report continuous measurements of whole-canopy CO2 exchange, direct temperature response curves of leaf and canopy respiration, leaf and branch wood respiration, and diurnal photosynthetic measurements. Warming reduced photosynthesis, whereas physiological acclimation prevented a coincident increase in Ra . Ambient and warmed trees had a common nonlinear relationship between the fraction of GPP that was respired above ground (Ra /GPP) and the mean daily temperature. Thus, warming significantly increased Ra /GPP by moving plants to higher positions on the shared Ra /GPP vs daily temperature relationship, but this effect was modest and only notable during hot conditions. Despite the physiological acclimation of autotrophic respiration to warming, increases in temperature and the frequency of heat waves may modestly increase tree Ra /GPP, contributing to a positive feedback between climate warming and atmospheric CO2 accumulation.

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects

The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the 'Year Without a Summer' of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event-tens of thousands of people lost their lives-the eruption also was an 'experiment of nature' from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO₂ injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora's effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO₂. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:569-589. doi: 10.1002/wcc.407 This article is categorized under: 1Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate.

Temporal Variation of Wood Density and Carbon in Two Elevational Sites of Pinus cooperi in Relation to Climate Response in Northern Mexico

Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of carbon uptake in forest ecosystems is much needed. Pinus cooperi is a widely distributed species in the Sierra Madre Occidental in northern Mexico and future climatic variations could impact these ecosystems. Here, we analyze the variations of trunk carbon in two populations of P. cooperi situated at different elevational gradients, combining dendrochronological techniques and allometry. Carbon sequestration (50% biomass) was estimated from a specific allometric equation for this species based on: (i) variation of intra-annual wood density and (ii) diameter reconstruction. The results show that the population at a higher elevation had greater wood density, basal area, and hence, carbon accumulation. This finding can be explained by an ecological response of trees to adverse weather conditions, which would cause a change in the cellular structure affecting the within-ring wood density profile. The influence of variations in climate on the maximum density of chronologies showed a positive correlation with precipitation and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index during the winter season, and a negative correlation with maximum temperature during the spring season. Monitoring previous conditions to growth is crucial due to the increased vulnerability to extreme climatic variations on higher elevational sites. We concluded that temporal variability of wood density contributes to a better understanding of environmental historical changes and forest carbon dynamics in Northern Mexico, representing a significant improvement over previous studies on carbon sequestration. Assuming a uniform density according to tree age is incorrect, so this method can be used for environmental mitigation strategies, such as for managing P. cooperi, a dominant species of great ecological amplitude and widely used in forest industries.

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics.

Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change

Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water-use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.

A tree-ring perspective on the terrestrial carbon cycle

Tree-ring records can provide valuable information to advance our understanding of contemporary terrestrial carbon cycling and to reconstruct key metrics in the decades preceding monitoring data. The growing use of tree rings in carbon-cycle research is being facilitated by increasing recognition of reciprocal benefits among research communities. Yet, basic questions persist regarding what tree rings represent at the ecosystem level, how to optimally integrate them with other data streams, and what related challenges need to be overcome. It is also apparent that considerable unexplored potential exists for tree rings to refine assessments of terrestrial carbon cycling across a range of temporal and spatial domains. Here, we summarize recent advances and highlight promising paths of investigation with respect to (1) growth phenology, (2) forest productivity trends and variability, (3) CO2 fertilization and water-use efficiency, (4) forest disturbances, and (5) comparisons between observational and computational forest productivity estimates. We encourage the integration of tree-ring data: with eddy-covariance measurements to investigate carbon allocation patterns and water-use efficiency; with remotely sensed observations to distinguish the timing of cambial growth and leaf phenology; and with forest inventories to develop continuous, annually-resolved and long-term carbon budgets. In addition, we note the potential of tree-ring records and derivatives thereof to help evaluate the performance of earth system models regarding the simulated magnitude and dynamics of forest carbon uptake, and inform these models about growth responses to (non-)climatic drivers. Such efforts are expected to improve our understanding of forest carbon cycling and place current developments into a long-term perspective.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr(-1) ) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr(-1) ). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr(-1) is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr(-1) ). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) , within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) ). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.

Filling the Eastern European gap in millennium-long temperature reconstructions

Tree ring-based temperature reconstructions form the scientific backbone of the current global change debate. Although some European records extend into medieval times, high-resolution, long-term, regional-scale paleoclimatic evidence is missing for the eastern part of the continent. Here we compile 545 samples of living trees and historical timbers from the greater Tatra region to reconstruct interannual to centennial-long variations in Eastern European May-June temperature back to 1040 AD. Recent anthropogenic warming exceeds the range of past natural climate variability. Increased plague outbreaks and political conflicts, as well as decreased settlement activities, coincided with temperature depressions. The Black Death in the mid-14th century, the Thirty Years War in the early 17th century, and the French Invasion of Russia in the early 19th century all occurred during the coldest episodes of the last millennium. A comparison with summer temperature reconstructions from Scandinavia, the Alps, and the Pyrenees emphasizes the seasonal and spatial specificity of our results, questioning those large-scale reconstructions that simply average individual sites.

Microbial community composition controls the effects of climate change on methane emission from rice paddies

Rice paddies are one of the most important sources of CH4 emission from the terrestrial ecosystem. A Free-air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment, which included a soil warming treatment, was conducted in a rice paddy at Shizukuishi, Japan. In this study, the changes in CH4 emission from a rice paddy, caused by global climate change, were explored in relation to the structural changes that have occurred in the methanogenic archaeal communities found in the soil and roots. The composition of the archaeal community was examined by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) using the 16S rRNA gene, while its abundance was measured by real-time PCR using the methyl coenzyme M reductase (mcrA) gene. The archaeal community in the roots showed considerable change, characterized by the dominance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens and a corresponding decrease in acetoclastic methanogens. Seasonal changes in CH4 flux were closely related to the changes in methanogen abundance in the roots. Elevated CO2 caused an increase in root mass, which increased the abundance of methanogens leading to a rise in CH4 emissions. However, soil warming stimulated CH4 emissions by increasing CH4 production per individual methanogen. These results demonstrated that climate warming stimulates CH4 emission in a rice paddy by altering the abundance and activity of methanogenic archaea in the roots.

Modelling terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions and implications for climate feedback

Ecosystem nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enhancements. Here, we aimed to quantify the responses of natural ecosystem N2O emissions to multiple environmental drivers using a process-based global vegetation model (DyN-LPJ). We checked that modelled annual N2O emissions from nonagricultural ecosystems could reproduce field measurements worldwide, and experimentally observed responses to step changes in environmental factors. We then simulated global N2O emissions throughout the 20th century and analysed the effects of environmental changes. The model reproduced well the global pattern of N2O emissions and the observed responses of N cycle components to changes in environmental factors. Simulated 20th century global decadal-average soil emissions were c. 8.2-9.5 Tg N yr(-1) (or 8.3-10.3 Tg N yr(-1) with N deposition). Warming and N deposition contributed 0.85±0.41 and 0.80±0.14 Tg N yr(-1), respectively, to an overall upward trend. Rising CO2 also contributed, in part, through a positive interaction with warming. The modelled temperature dependence of N2O emission (c. 1 Tg N yr(-1) K(-1)) implies a positive climate feedback which, over the lifetime of N2O (114 yr), could become as important as the climate-carbon cycle feedback caused by soil CO2 release.

Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80%, developing countries about 20-40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67%, BNU-ESM 35-65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.

Thermal optimality of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and underlying mechanisms

• It is well established that individual organisms can acclimate and adapt to temperature to optimize their functioning. However, thermal optimization of ecosystems, as an assemblage of organisms, has not been examined at broad spatial and temporal scales. • Here, we compiled data from 169 globally distributed sites of eddy covariance and quantified the temperature response functions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), an ecosystem-level property, to determine whether NEE shows thermal optimality and to explore the underlying mechanisms. • We found that the temperature response of NEE followed a peak curve, with the optimum temperature (corresponding to the maximum magnitude of NEE) being positively correlated with annual mean temperature over years and across sites. Shifts of the optimum temperature of NEE were mostly a result of temperature acclimation of gross primary productivity (upward shift of optimum temperature) rather than changes in the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration. • Ecosystem-level thermal optimality is a newly revealed ecosystem property, presumably reflecting associated evolutionary adaptation of organisms within ecosystems, and has the potential to significantly regulate ecosystem-climate change feedbacks. The thermal optimality of NEE has implications for understanding fundamental properties of ecosystems in changing environments and benchmarking global models.

2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

When could global warming reach 4°C?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.

Global convergence in the temperature sensitivity of respiration at ecosystem level

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO(2) uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate-carbon cycle feedback. We approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q(10)) across 60 FLUXNET sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q(10) is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 +/- 0.1. The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. The results may partly explain a less pronounced climate-carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models.