Rheological separation of the megathrust seismogenic zone and episodic tremor and slip

Subducted carbon weakens the forearc mantle wedge in a warm subduction zone

Subducting oceanic plates carry large amounts of carbon into the Earth's interior. The subducted carbon is mobilized by fluid and encounters ultramafic rocks in the mantle wedge, resulting in changes to the mineral assemblage and mechanical properties of the mantle. Here, we use thermodynamic modeling of interactions between carbon-bearing multi-component fluids and mantle rocks to investigate the down-dip variation in mineral assemblage in the forearc mantle along subduction megathrusts. We found that fluids rich in aqueous carbon are preferentially generated in a warm subduction zone (e.g., Nankai, SW Japan), causing a change in mineral assemblage from serpentine-rich at the mantle wedge corner to talc + carbonate-rich at greater depths. The transition caused by the infiltration of aqueous carbon may influence the depth of the boundary between the seismogenic and aseismic zones, and the down-dip limit of episodic tremor and slip.

Slow rupture in a fluid-rich fault zone initiated the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto earthquake

The 2024 moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula (Japan) earthquake caused devastation to communities and was generated by a complex rupture process. Using space geodetic and seismic observations, we have shown that the event deformed the peninsula with a peak uplift reaching 5 meters at the west coast. Shallow slip exceeded 10 meters on an offshore fault. Peak stress drop was greater than 10 megapascals. This devastating event began with a slow rupture propagation lasting 15 to 20 seconds near its hypocenter, where seismic swarms had surged since 2020 because of lower-crust fluid supply. The slow start was accompanied by intense high-frequency seismic radiation. These observations suggest a distinct coseismic slip mode reflecting high heterogeneity in fault properties within a fluid-rich fault zone.

A pressure solution flow law for the seismogenic zone: Application to Cascadia

We develop a linear viscous constitutive relationship for pressure solution constrained by models of deformed metasedimentary rocks and observations of exposed rocks from ancient subduction zones. We include pressure and temperature dependence on the solubility of silica in fluid by parameterizing a practical van't Hoff relationship. This general flow law is well suited for making predictions about interseismic behavior of subduction zones. We apply the flow law to Cascadia, where thermal structure, geometry, relative plate velocity, and Global Positioning System velocity field are well constrained. Results are consistent with the temperature conditions at which resolvable ductile strain is recorded in subducted mudstones (at depths near the updip limit of the seismogenic zone) and with relative plate motion accommodated completely by viscous deformation (at depths near the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone). The flow law also predicts the observed forearc tapering of slip rate deficit with depth.

Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS

The slip history of short-term slow slip event (SSE) is typically inferred from daily Global Positioning System (GPS) data, which, however, cannot image the sub-daily processes, leaving the underlying mechanisms of SSEs elusive. To address the temporal resolution issue, we attempted to employ the kinematic subdaily GPS analysis, which has never been applied to SSE studies because its signal-to-noise ratio has been believed too low. By carefully post-processing sub-daily positions to remove non-tectonic position fluctuation, our 30-min kinematic data clearly exhibits the transient motion of a few mm during one Cascadia SSE. A spatiotemporal slip image by inverting the 30-min data exhibits a multi-stage evolution; it consists of an isotropic growth of SSE followed by an along-strike migration and termination within the rheologically controlled down-dip width. This transition at the slip growth mode is similar to the rupture growth of regular earthquakes, implying the presence of common mechanical factors behind the two distinct slip phenomena. The comparison with a slip inversion of the daily GPS demonstrates the current performance and limitation of the subdaily data in the SSE detection and imaging. Better understanding of the non-tectonic noise in the kinematic GPS analysis will further improve the temporal resolution of SSE.

A likely geological record of deep tremor and slow slip events from a subducted continental broken formation

Fluids in subduction zones play a key role in controlling seismic activity, drastically affecting the rheology of rocks, triggering mineral reactions, and lowering the effective stress. Fluctuating pore pressure is one important parameter for the switch between brittle and ductile deformation, thus impacting seismogenesis. Episodic tremor and slow slip events (ETS) have been proposed as a common feature of the geophysical signature of subduction zones. Their geological record, however, remains scanty. Only the detailed and further characterization of exhumed fossil geological settings can help fill this knowledge gap. Here we propose that fluctuating pore pressure linked to metamorphic dehydration reactions steered cyclic and ETS-related brittle and ductile deformation of continental crustal rocks in the subduction channel of the Apennines. Dilational shear veins and ductile mylonitic shear zones formed broadly coevally at minimum 1 GPa and 350 °C, corresponding to ~ 30-40 km depth in the subduction zone. We identify carpholite in Ca-poor metasediments as an important carrier of H₂O to depths > 40 km in cold subduction zones. Our results suggest that the described (micro)structures and mineralogical changes can be ascribed to deep ETS and provide a useful reference for the interpretation of similar tectonic settings worldwide.

InSAR data reveal that the largest hydraulic fracturing-induced earthquake in Canada, to date, is a slow-slip event

For tectonic earthquakes, slip rate spans a continuum from creep to supershear earthquakes, where slow slip events (SSEs) are important in releasing stress without radiating damaging seismic energy. Industrial-scale subsurface fluid injection has caused induced earthquakes, but the role of SSEs in fault activation is currently unclear. Ground-deformation observations, measured by satellite radar, show that SSEs up to magnitude 5.0 occurred during hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations in northwestern Canada, corroborated by reported deformation of the steel well casing. Although the magnitude 5.0 SSE exceeded the magnitude of the largest induced earthquake in this region (magnitude 4.55), it was undetected by seismograph networks. The observed SSEs occurred within a buried thrust belt and their magnitude and duration are consistent with scaling behavior of SSEs in unbounded natural systems, e.g. slab interfaces in subduction zones.

Dynamic rupture initiation and propagation in a fluid-injection laboratory setup with diagnostics across multiple temporal scales

Fluids are known to trigger a broad range of slip events, from slow, creeping transients to dynamic earthquake ruptures. Yet, the detailed mechanics underlying these processes and the conditions leading to different rupture behaviors are not well understood. Here, we use a laboratory earthquake setup, capable of injecting pressurized fluids, to compare the rupture behavior for different rates of fluid injection, slow (megapascals per hour) versus fast (megapascals per second). We find that for the fast injection rates, dynamic ruptures are triggered at lower pressure levels and over spatial scales much smaller than the quasistatic theoretical estimates of nucleation sizes, suggesting that such fast injection rates constitute dynamic loading. In contrast, the relatively slow injection rates result in gradual nucleation processes, with the fluid spreading along the interface and causing stress changes consistent with gradually accelerating slow slip. The resulting dynamic ruptures propagating over wetted interfaces exhibit dynamic stress drops almost twice as large as those over the dry interfaces. These results suggest the need to take into account the rate of the pore-pressure increase when considering nucleation processes and motivate further investigation on how friction properties depend on the presence of fluids.

Assessing Margin-Wide Rupture Behaviors Along the Cascadia Megathrust With 3-D Dynamic Rupture Simulations

From California to British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest coast bears an omnipresent earthquake and tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone. Multiple lines of evidence suggests that magnitude eight and greater megathrust earthquakes have occurred - the most recent being 321 years ago (i.e., 1700 A.D.). Outstanding questions for the next great megathrust event include where it will initiate, what conditions are favorable for rupture to span the convergent margin, and how much slip may be expected. We develop the first 3-D fully dynamic rupture simulations for the Cascadia subduction zone that are driven by fault stress, strength and friction to address these questions. The initial dynamic stress drop distribution in our simulations is constrained by geodetic coupling models, with segment locations taken from geologic analyses. We document the sensitivity of nucleation location and stress drop to the final seismic moment and coseismic subsidence amplitudes. We find that the final earthquake size strongly depends on the amount of slip deficit in the central Cascadia region, which is inferred to be creeping interseismically, for a given initiation location in southern or northern Cascadia. Several simulations are also presented here that can closely approximate recorded coastal subsidence from the 1700 A.D. event without invoking localized high-stress asperities along the down-dip locked region of the megathrust. These results can be used to inform earthquake and tsunami hazards for not only Cascadia, but other subduction zones that have limited seismic observations but a wealth of geodetic inference.

3-D thermal regime and dehydration processes around the regions of slow earthquakes along the Ryukyu Trench

Several interplate seismic events, such as short-term slow slip events (S-SSEs) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), have been identified in the Ryukyu Trench, southwestern Japan. As one of the specific characteristics of this seismicity, the depths at which S-SSEs occur at the plate interface beneath Okinawa Island are approximately 5–10 km shallower than those beneath the Yaeyama Islands. To elucidate the cause of this difference in depth, we constructed a three-dimensional, Cartesian thermomechanical subduction model and applied the subduction history of the Philippine Sea (PHS) plate in the model region. As a result, the interplate temperatures at which S-SSEs take place were estimated to range from 350 to 450 °C beneath Okinawa Island and from 500 to 600 °C beneath the Yaeyama Islands. The former temperature range is consistent with previous thermal modelling studies for the occurrence of slow earthquakes, but the latter temperature range is by approximately 150 °C higher than the former. Therefore, explaining how the depth difference in S-SSEs could be caused from the aspect of only the thermal regime is difficult. Using phase diagrams for hydrous minerals in the oceanic crust and mantle wedge, we also estimated the water content distribution on and above the plate interface of the PHS plate. Near the S-SSE fault planes, almost the same amount of dehydration associated with phase transformations of hydrous minerals from blueschist to amphibolite and from amphibolite to amphibole eclogite within the oceanic crust were inferred along Okinawa Island and the Yaeyama Islands, respectively. On the other hand, the phase transformations within the mantle wedge were inferred only beneath the Yaeyama Islands, whereas no specific phase transformation was inferred beneath Okinawa Island around the S-SSE occurrence region. Therefore, we conclude that dehydrated fluid derived from the oceanic crust at the plate interface would play a key role in the occurrence of S-SSEs.

Is complex fault zone behaviour a reflection of rheological heterogeneity?

Fault slip speeds range from steady plate boundary creep through to earthquake slip. Geological descriptions of faults range from localized displacement on one or more discrete planes, through to distributed shearing flow in tabular zones of finite thickness, indicating a large range of possible strain rates in natural faults. We review geological observations and analyse numerical models of two-phase shear zones to discuss the degree and distribution of fault zone heterogeneity and effects on active fault slip style. There must be certain conditions that produce earthquakes, creep and slip at intermediate velocities. Because intermediate slip styles occur over large ranges in temperature, the controlling conditions must be effects of fault properties and/or other dynamic variables. We suggest that the ratio of bulk driving stress to frictional yield strength, and viscosity contrasts within the fault zone, are critical factors. While earthquake nucleation requires the frictional yield to be reached, steady viscous flow requires conditions far from the frictional yield. Intermediate slip speeds may arise when driving stress is sufficient to nucleate local frictional failure by stress amplification, or local frictional yield is lowered by fluid pressure, but such failure is spatially limited by surrounding shear zone stress heterogeneity. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

What's down there? The structures, materials and environment of deep-seated slow slip and tremor

Deep-seated slow slip and tremor (SST), including slow slip events, episodic tremor and slip, and low-frequency earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic zone of numerous subduction megathrusts and plate boundary strike-slip faults. These events represent a fascinating and perplexing mode of fault failure that has greatly broadened our view of earthquake dynamics. In this contribution, we review constraints on SST deformation processes from both geophysical observations of active subduction zones and geological observations of exhumed field analogues. We first provide an overview of what has been learned about the environment, kinematics and dynamics of SST from geodetic and seismologic data. We then describe the materials, deformation mechanisms, and metamorphic and fluid pressure conditions that characterize exhumed rocks from SST source depths. Both the geophysical and geological records strongly suggest the importance of a fluid-rich and high fluid pressure habitat for the SST source region. Additionally, transient deformation features preserved in the rock record, involving combined frictional-viscous shear in regions of mixed lithology and near-lithostatic fluid pressures, may scale with the tremor component of SST. While several open questions remain, it is clear that improved constraints on the materials, environment, structure, and conditions of the plate interface from geophysical imaging and geologic observations will enhance model representations of the boundary conditions and geometry of the SST deformation process. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

An exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia

Slow slip events result from the spontaneous weakening of the subduction megathrust and bear strong resemblance to earthquakes, only slower. This resemblance allows us to study fundamental aspects of nucleation that remain elusive for classic, fast earthquakes. We rely on machine learning algorithms to infer slow slip timing from statistics of seismic waveforms. We find that patterns in seismic power follow the 14-month slow slip cycle in Cascadia, arguing in favor of the predictability of slow slip rupture. Here, we show that seismic power exponentially increases as the slowly slipping portion of the subduction zone approaches failure, a behavior that shares a striking similarity with the increase in acoustic power observed prior to laboratory slow slip events. Our results suggest that the nucleation phase of Cascadia slow slip events may last from several weeks up to several months.

Using machine learning algorithms, the authors here identify slow slip precursors in the Cascadia subduction zone to last for months - which in turn argues for a much better predictability of slow slip rupture.

Megathrust shear force controls mountain height at convergent plate margins

The shear force along convergent plate boundary faults (megathrusts) determines the height of mountain ranges that can be mechanically sustained^1-4. However, whether the true height of mountain ranges corresponds to this tectonically supported elevation is debated^4-7. In particular, climate-dependent erosional processes are often assumed to exert a first-order control on mountain height^5-12, although this assumption has remained difficult to validate¹². Here we constrain the shear force along active megathrusts using their rheological properties and then determine the tectonically supported elevation using a force balance model. We show that the height of mountain ranges around the globe matches this elevation, irrespective of climatic conditions and the rate of erosion. This finding indicates that mountain ranges are close to force equilibrium and that their height is primarily controlled by the megathrust shear force. We conclude that temporal variations in mountain height reflect long-term changes in the force balance but are not indicative of a direct climate control on mountain elevation.

The slow earthquake spectrum in the Japan Trench illuminated by the S-net seafloor observatories

Investigating slow earthquake activity in subduction zones provides insight into the slip behavior of megathrusts, which can provide important clues about the rupture extent of future great earthquakes. Using the S-net ocean-bottom seismograph network along the Japan Trench, we mapped a detailed distribution of tectonic tremors, which coincided with very-low-frequency earthquakes and a slow slip event. Compiling these and other related observations, including repeating earthquakes and earthquake swarms, we found that the slow earthquake distribution is complementary to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake rupture. We used our observations to divide the megathrust in the Japan Trench into three along-strike segments characterized by different slip behaviors. We found that the rupture of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, which nucleated in the central segment, was terminated by the two adjacent segments.

Similar scaling laws for earthquakes and Cascadia slow-slip events

Faults can slip not only episodically during earthquakes but also during transient aseismic slip events^1-5, often called slow-slip events. Previous studies based on observations compiled from various tectonic settings^6-8 have suggested that the moment of slow-slip events is proportional to their duration, instead of following the duration-cubed scaling found for earthquakes⁹. This finding has spurred efforts to unravel the cause of the difference in scaling^6,10-14. Thanks to a new catalogue of slow-slip events on the Cascadia megathrust based on the inversion of surface deformation measurements between 2007 and 2017¹⁵, we find that a cubic moment-duration scaling law is more likely. Like regular earthquakes, slow-slip events also have a moment that is proportional to A^3/2, where A is the rupture area, and obey the Gutenberg-Richter relationship between frequency and magnitude. Finally, these slow-slip events show pulse-like ruptures similar to seismic ruptures. The scaling properties of slow-slip events are thus strikingly similar to those of regular earthquakes, suggesting that they are governed by similar dynamic properties.

Stress-driven fluid flow controls long-term megathrust strength and deep accretionary dynamics

The heterogeneity of frictional strength along the megathrust earthquake zone critically controls plate coupling and long-term subduction dynamics. However, the persistence and distribution of high-friction segments through space and time remain poorly constrained. Here, we show that accretion processes, such as tectonic underplating (i.e., basal accretion of material below the fore-arc region), can be used as a proxy to characterize the long-term frictional zonation of the subduction interface. We carry out numerical thermo-mechanical experiments, which predict a first-order control of tectonic-stress variations on fluid transport in deep fore-arc regions. Accordingly, positive feedback between fluid distribution and effective stress favours the stability of the interface frictional properties at Myr-scale which, in turn, controls the deep accretionary dynamics. We propose that the recognition of thick duplex structures resulting from successive underplating events over tens of Myr, allows for tracking subduction segments exhibiting an increasing frictional behaviour. Our numerical results help ascertain the long-term hydro-mechanical properties and distribution of coupling/decoupling segments of megathrust earthquake zones worldwide where active tectonic underplating is recognized.

Episodic tremor and slip silently invades strongly locked megathrust in the Nankai Trough

Recent seismic and geodetic observations in subduction zones have revealed that slow earthquakes have preceded some large earthquakes. Characterization of slow earthquakes and their relation to large earthquakes provides important clues to constrain a wide spectrum of slip rates on tectonic faults. Here, we report new evidence of a slow slip transient at the downdip edge of the strongly locked seismogenic zone in the western Nankai Trough in southwest Japan. This slow slip transient was excited during an episodic tremor and slip at the downdip extension of the locked zone. Through this triggering, the frequent occurrence of the deep episodic tremor and slip invades the strongly locked megathrust zone and may intermittently increase the probability of large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough.

Slow slip events in the roots of the San Andreas fault

Episodic tremor and accompanying slow slip are observed at the down-dip edge of subduction seismogenic zones. While tremors are the seismic signature of this phenomenon, they correspond to a small fraction of the moment released; thus, the associated fault slip can be quantified only by geodetic observations. On continental strike-slip faults, tremors have been observed in the roots of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault. However, associated transient aseismic slip has never been detected. By making use of the timing of transient tremor activity and the dense Parkfield-area global positioning system network, we can detect deep slow slip events (SSEs) at 16-km depth on the Parkfield segment with an average moment equivalent to M _w 4.90 ± 0.08. Characterization of transient SSEs below the Parkfield locked asperity, at the transition with the creeping section of the San Andreas fault, provides new constraints on the seismic cycle in this region.

Bushen-Yizhi formula ameliorates cognitive dysfunction through SIRT1/ER stress pathway in SAMP8 mice

The Chinese formula Bushen-Yizhi (BSYZ) has been reported to ameliorate cognitive dysfunction. However the mechanism is still unclear. In this study, we employ an aging model, SAMP8 mice, to explore whether BSYZ could protect dementia through SIRT1/endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress pathway. Morris water maze and the fearing condition test results show that oral administration of BSYZ (1.46 g/kg/d, 2.92 g/kg/d and 5.84 g/kg/d) and donepezil (3 mg/kg/d) shorten the escape latency, increase the crossing times of the original position of the platform and the time spent in the target quadrant, and increase the freezing time. BSYZ decreases the activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE), and increases the activity of choline acetyltransferase (ChAT) and the concentration of acetylcholine (Ach) in both hippocampus and cortex. In addition, western blot results (Bcl-2, Bax and Caspase-3) and TUNEL staining show that BSYZ prevents neuron from apoptosis, and elevates the expression of neurotrophic factors, including nerve growth factor (NGF), postsynapticdensity 95 (PSD95) and synaptophysin (SYN), in both hippocampus and cortex. BSYZ also increases the protein expression of SIRT1 and alleviates ER stress-associated proteins (PERK, IRE-1α, eIF-2α, BIP, PDI and CHOP). These results indicate that the neuroprotective mechanism of BSYZ might be related with SIRT1/ER stress pathway.

Slow-slip events in semi-brittle serpentinite fault zones

Slow-slip events are earthquake-like events only with much lower slip rates. While peak coseismic velocities can reach tens of meters per second, slow-slip is on the order of 10^−7±2 m/s and may last for days to weeks. Under the rate-and-state model of fault friction, slow-slip is produced only when the asperity size is commensurate with the critical nucleation size, a function of frictional properties. However, it is unlikely that all subduction zones embody the same frictional properties. In addition to friction, plastic flow of antigorite-rich serpentinite may significantly influence the dynamics of fault slip near the mantle wedge corner. Here, we show that the range of frictional parameters that generate slow slip is widened in the presence of a serpentinized layer along the subduction plate interface. We observe increased stability and damping of fast ruptures in a semi-brittle fault zone governed by both brittle and viscoelastic constitutive response. The rate of viscous serpentinite flow, governed by dislocation creep, is enhanced by high ambient temperatures. When effective viscosity is taken to be dynamic, long-term slow slip events spontaneously emerge. Integration of rheology, thermal effects, and other microphysical processes with rate-and-state friction may yield further insight into the phenomenology of slow slip.

Fluid pressure and shear zone development over the locked to slow slip region in Cascadia

At subduction zones, the deep seismogenic transition from a frictionally locked to steady sliding interface is thought to primarily reflect changes in rheology and fluid pressure and is generally located offshore. The development of fluid pressures within a seismic low-velocity layer (LVL) remains poorly constrained due to the scarcity of dense, continuous onshore-offshore broadband seismic arrays. We image the subducting Juan de Fuca oceanic plate in northern Cascadia using onshore-offshore teleseismic data and find that the signature of the LVL does not extend into the locked zone. Thickening of the LVL down dip where viscous creep dominates suggests that it represents the development of an increasingly thick and fluid-rich shear zone, enabled by fluid production in subducting oceanic crust. Further down dip, episodic tremor, and slip events occur in a region inferred to have locally increased fluid pressures, in agreement with electrical resistivity structure and numerical models of fault slip.

Microscale cavitation as a mechanism for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone

Major earthquakes frequently nucleate near the base of the seismogenic zone, close to the brittle-ductile transition. Fault zone rupture at greater depths is inhibited by ductile flow of rock. However, the microphysical mechanisms responsible for the transition from ductile flow to seismogenic brittle/frictional behaviour at shallower depths remain unclear. Here we show that the flow-to-friction transition in experimentally simulated calcite faults is characterized by a transition from dislocation and diffusion creep to dilatant deformation, involving incompletely accommodated grain boundary sliding. With increasing shear rate or decreasing temperature, dislocation and diffusion creep become too slow to accommodate the imposed shear strain rate, leading to intergranular cavitation, weakening, strain localization, and a switch from stable flow to runaway fault rupture. The observed shear instability, triggered by the onset of microscale cavitation, provides a key mechanism for bringing about the brittle-ductile transition and for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.