A framework for parameter estimation and model selection from experimental data in systems biology using approximate Bayesian computation

Competition between physical search and a weak-to-strong transition rate-limits kinesin binding times

The self-organization of cells relies on the profound complexity of protein-protein interactions. Challenges in directly observing these events have hindered progress toward understanding their diverse behaviors. One notable example is the interaction between molecular motors and cytoskeletal systems that combine to perform a variety of cellular functions. In this work, we leverage theory and experiments to identify and quantify the rate-limiting mechanism of the initial association between a cargo-bound kinesin motor and a microtubule track. Recent advances in optical tweezers provide binding times for several lengths of kinesin motors trapped at varying distances from a microtubule, empowering the investigation of competing models. We first explore a diffusion-limited model of binding. Through Brownian dynamics simulations and simulation-based inference, we find this simple diffusion model fails to explain the experimental binding times, but an extended model that accounts for the ADP state of the molecular motor agrees closely with the data, even under the scrutiny of penalizing for additional model complexity. We provide quantification of both kinetic rates and biophysical parameters underlying the proposed binding process. Our model suggests that a typical binding event is limited by ADP state rather than physical search. Lastly, we predict how these association rates can be modulated in distinct ways through variation of environmental concentrations and physical properties.

Global stability and parameter analysis reinforce therapeutic targets of PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs for glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive primary brain cancer that currently has minimally effective treatments. Like other cancers, immunosuppression by the PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint complex is a prominent axis by which glioma cells evade the immune system. Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), which are recruited to the glioma microenviroment, also contribute to the immunosuppressed GBM microenvironment by suppressing T cell functions. In this paper, we propose a GBM-specific tumor-immune ordinary differential equations model of glioma cells, T cells, and MDSCs to provide theoretical insights into the interactions between these cells. Equilibrium and stability analysis indicates that there are unique tumorous and tumor-free equilibria which are locally stable under certain conditions. Further, the tumor-free equilibrium is globally stable when T cell activation and the tumor kill rate by T cells overcome tumor growth, T cell inhibition by PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs, and the T cell death rate. Bifurcation analysis suggests that a treatment plan that includes surgical resection and therapeutics targeting immune suppression caused by the PD-L1-PD1 complex and MDSCs results in the system tending to the tumor-free equilibrium. Using a set of preclinical experimental data, we implement the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) rejection method to construct probability density distributions that estimate model parameters. These distributions inform an appropriate search curve for global sensitivity analysis using the extended fourier amplitude sensitivity test. Sensitivity results combined with the ABC method suggest that parameter interaction is occurring between the drivers of tumor burden, which are the tumor growth rate and carrying capacity as well as the tumor kill rate by T cells, and the two modeled forms of immunosuppression, PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint and MDSC suppression of T cells. Thus, treatment with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in combination with a therapeutic targeting the inhibitory mechanisms of MDSCs should be explored.

ADP release can explain spatially-dependent kinesin binding times

The self-organization of cells relies on the profound complexity of protein-protein interactions. Challenges in directly observing these events have hindered progress toward understanding their diverse behaviors. One notable example is the interaction between molecular motors and cytoskeletal systems that combine to perform a variety of cellular functions. In this work, we leverage theory and experiments to identify and quantify the rate-limiting mechanism of the initial association between a cargo-bound kinesin motor and a microtubule track. Recent advances in optical tweezers provide binding times for several lengths of kinesin motors trapped at varying distances from a microtubule, empowering the investigation of competing models. We first explore a diffusion-limited model of binding. Through Brownian dynamics simulations and simulation-based inference, we find this simple diffusion model fails to explain the experimental binding times, but an extended model that accounts for the ADP state of the molecular motor agrees closely with the data, even under the scrutiny of penalizing for additional model complexity. We provide quantification of both kinetic rates and biophysical parameters underlying the proposed binding process. Our model suggests that most but not every motor binding event is limited by their ADP state. Lastly, we predict how these association rates can be modulated in distinct ways through variation of environmental concentrations and spatial distances.

Integrating Pool-seq uncertainties into demographic inference

Next-generation sequencing of pooled samples (Pool-seq) is a popular method to assess genome-wide diversity patterns in natural and experimental populations. However, Pool-seq is associated with specific sources of noise, such as unequal individual contributions. Consequently, using Pool-seq for the reconstruction of evolutionary history has remained underexplored. Here we describe a novel Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method to infer demographic history, explicitly modelling Pool-seq sources of error. By jointly modelling Pool-seq data, demographic history and the effects of selection due to barrier loci, we obtain estimates of demographic history parameters accounting for technical errors associated with Pool-seq. Our ABC approach is computationally efficient as it relies on simulating subsets of loci (rather than the whole-genome) and on using relative summary statistics and relative model parameters. Our simulation study results indicate Pool-seq data allows distinction between general scenarios of ecotype formation (single versus parallel origin) and to infer relevant demographic parameters (e.g. effective sizes and split times). We exemplify the application of our method to Pool-seq data from the rocky-shore gastropod Littorina saxatilis, sampled on a narrow geographical scale at two Swedish locations where two ecotypes (Wave and Crab) are found. Our model choice and parameter estimates show that ecotypes formed before colonization of the two locations (i.e. single origin) and are maintained despite gene flow. These results indicate that demographic modelling and inference can be successful based on pool-sequencing using ABC, contributing to the development of suitable null models that allow for a better understanding of the genetic basis of divergent adaptation.

Global stability and parameter analysis reinforce therapeutic targets of PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs for glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive primary brain cancer that currently has minimally effective treatments. Like other cancers, immunosuppression by the PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint complex is a prominent axis by which glioma cells evade the immune system. Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), which are recruited to the glioma microenviroment, also contribute to the immunosuppressed GBM microenvironment by suppressing T cell functions. In this paper, we propose a GBM-specific tumor-immune ordinary differential equations model of glioma cells, T cells, and MDSCs to provide theoretical insights into the interactions between these cells. Equilibrium and stability analysis indicates that there are unique tumorous and tumor-free equilibria which are locally stable under certain conditions. Further, the tumor-free equilibrium is globally stable when T cell activation and the tumor kill rate by T cells overcome tumor growth, T cell inhibition by PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs, and the T cell death rate. Bifurcation analysis suggests that a treatment plan that includes surgical resection and therapeutics targeting immune suppression caused by the PD-L1-PD1 complex and MDSCs results in the system tending to the tumor-free equilibrium. Using a set of preclinical experimental data, we implement the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) rejection method to construct probability density distributions that estimate model parameters. These distributions inform an appropriate search curve for global sensitivity analysis using the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (eFAST). Sensitivity results combined with the ABC method suggest that parameter interaction is occurring between the drivers of tumor burden, which are the tumor growth rate and carrying capacity as well as the tumor kill rate by T cells, and the two modeled forms of immunosuppression, PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint and MDSC suppression of T cells. Thus, treatment with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in combination with a therapeutic targeting the inhibitory mechanisms of MDSCs should be explored.

Heterogeneity is a key factor describing the initial outbreak of COVID-19

Assessing the transmission potential of emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, is crucial for implementing prompt and effective intervention policies. The basic reproduction number is widely used to measure the severity of the early stages of disease outbreaks. The basic reproduction number of standard ordinary differential equation models is computed for homogeneous contact patterns; however, realistic contact patterns are far from homogeneous, specifically during the early stages of disease transmission. Heterogeneity of contact patterns can lead to superspreading events that show a significantly high level of heterogeneity in generating secondary infections. This is primarily due to the large variance in the contact patterns of complex human behaviours. Hence, in this work, we investigate the impacts of heterogeneity in contact patterns on the basic reproduction number by developing two distinct model frameworks: 1) an SEIR-Erlang ordinary differential equation model and 2) an SEIR stochastic agent-based model. Furthermore, we estimated the transmission probability of both models in the context of COVID-19 in South Korea. Our results highlighted the importance of heterogeneity in contact patterns and indicated that there should be more information than one quantity (the basic reproduction number as the mean quantity), such as a degree-specific basic reproduction number in the distributional sense when the contact pattern is highly heterogeneous.

Julia for biologists

Major computational challenges exist in relation to the collection, curation, processing and analysis of large genomic and imaging datasets, as well as the simulation of larger and more realistic models in systems biology. Here we discuss how a relative newcomer among programming languages-Julia-is poised to meet the current and emerging demands in the computational biosciences and beyond. Speed, flexibility, a thriving package ecosystem and readability are major factors that make high-performance computing and data analysis available to an unprecedented degree. We highlight how Julia's design is already enabling new ways of analyzing biological data and systems, and we provide a list of resources that can facilitate the transition into Julian computing.

Geometric analysis enables biological insight from complex non-identifiable models using simple surrogates

An enduring challenge in computational biology is to balance data quality and quantity with model complexity. Tools such as identifiability analysis and information criterion have been developed to harmonise this juxtaposition, yet cannot always resolve the mismatch between available data and the granularity required in mathematical models to answer important biological questions. Often, it is only simple phenomenological models, such as the logistic and Gompertz growth models, that are identifiable from standard experimental measurements. To draw insights from complex, non-identifiable models that incorporate key biological mechanisms of interest, we study the geometry of a map in parameter space from the complex model to a simple, identifiable, surrogate model. By studying how non-identifiable parameters in the complex model quantitatively relate to identifiable parameters in surrogate, we introduce and exploit a layer of interpretation between the set of non-identifiable parameters and the goodness-of-fit metric or likelihood studied in typical identifiability analysis. We demonstrate our approach by analysing a hierarchy of mathematical models for multicellular tumour spheroid growth experiments. Typical data from tumour spheroid experiments are limited and noisy, and corresponding mathematical models are very often made arbitrarily complex. Our geometric approach is able to predict non-identifiabilities, classify non-identifiable parameter spaces into identifiable parameter combinations that relate to features in the data characterised by parameters in a surrogate model, and overall provide additional biological insight from complex non-identifiable models.

Open problems in mathematical biology

Biology is data-rich, and it is equally rich in concepts and hypotheses. Part of trying to understand biological processes and systems is therefore to confront our ideas and hypotheses with data using statistical methods to determine the extent to which our hypotheses agree with reality. But doing so in a systematic way is becoming increasingly challenging as our hypotheses become more detailed, and our data becomes more complex. Mathematical methods are therefore gaining in importance across the life- and biomedical sciences. Mathematical models allow us to test our understanding, make testable predictions about future behaviour, and gain insights into how we can control the behaviour of biological systems. It has been argued that mathematical methods can be of great benefit to biologists to make sense of data. But mathematics and mathematicians are set to benefit equally from considering the often bewildering complexity inherent to living systems. Here we present a small selection of open problems and challenges in mathematical biology. We have chosen these open problems because they are of both biological and mathematical interest.

Deep reinforcement learning for optimal experimental design in biology

The field of optimal experimental design uses mathematical techniques to determine experiments that are maximally informative from a given experimental setup. Here we apply a technique from artificial intelligence-reinforcement learning-to the optimal experimental design task of maximizing confidence in estimates of model parameter values. We show that a reinforcement learning approach performs favourably in comparison with a one-step ahead optimisation algorithm and a model predictive controller for the inference of bacterial growth parameters in a simulated chemostat. Further, we demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning to train over a distribution of parameters, indicating that this approach is robust to parametric uncertainty.

Bayesian parameter estimation for dynamical models in systems biology

Dynamical systems modeling, particularly via systems of ordinary differential equations, has been used to effectively capture the temporal behavior of different biochemical components in signal transduction networks. Despite the recent advances in experimental measurements, including sensor development and '-omics' studies that have helped populate protein-protein interaction networks in great detail, modeling in systems biology lacks systematic methods to estimate kinetic parameters and quantify associated uncertainties. This is because of multiple reasons, including sparse and noisy experimental measurements, lack of detailed molecular mechanisms underlying the reactions, and missing biochemical interactions. Additionally, the inherent nonlinearities with respect to the states and parameters associated with the system of differential equations further compound the challenges of parameter estimation. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework for Bayesian parameter estimation and complete quantification of the effects of uncertainties in the data and models. We apply these methods to a series of signaling models of increasing mathematical complexity. Systematic analysis of these dynamical systems showed that parameter estimation depends on data sparsity, noise level, and model structure, including the existence of multiple steady states. These results highlight how focused uncertainty quantification can enrich systems biology modeling and enable additional quantitative analyses for parameter estimation.

Design centering enables robustness screening of pattern formation models

MOTIVATION

Access to unprecedented amounts of quantitative biological data allows us to build and test biochemically accurate reaction-diffusion models of intracellular processes. However, any increase in model complexity increases the number of unknown parameters and, thus, the computational cost of model analysis. To efficiently characterize the behavior and robustness of models with many unknown parameters remains, therefore, a key challenge in systems biology.

RESULTS

We propose a novel computational framework for efficient high-dimensional parameter space characterization of reaction-diffusion models in systems biology. The method leverages the Lp-Adaptation algorithm, an adaptive-proposal statistical method for approximate design centering and robustness estimation. Our approach is based on an oracle function, which predicts for any given point in parameter space whether the model fulfills given specifications. We propose specific oracles to efficiently predict four characteristics of Turing-type reaction-diffusion models: bistability, instability, capability of spontaneous pattern formation and capability of pattern maintenance. We benchmark the method and demonstrate that it enables global exploration of a model's ability to undergo pattern-forming instabilities and to quantify robustness for model selection in polynomial time with dimensionality. We present an application of the framework to pattern formation on the endosomal membrane by the small GTPase Rab5 and its effectors, and we propose molecular mechanisms underlying this system.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

Our code is implemented in MATLAB and is available as open source under https://git.mpi-cbg.de/mosaic/software/black-box-optimization/rd-parameter-space-screening.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Model-informed experimental design recommendations for distinguishing intrinsic and acquired targeted therapeutic resistance in head and neck cancer

The promise of precision medicine has been limited by the pervasive resistance to many targeted therapies for cancer. Inferring the timing (i.e., pre-existing or acquired) and mechanism (i.e., drug-induced) of such resistance is crucial for designing effective new therapeutics. This paper studies cetuximab resistance in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) using tumor volume data obtained from patient-derived tumor xenografts. We ask if resistance mechanisms can be determined from this data alone, and if not, what data would be needed to deduce the underlying mode(s) of resistance. To answer these questions, we propose a family of mathematical models, with each member of the family assuming a different timing and mechanism of resistance. We present a method for fitting these models to individual volumetric data, and utilize model selection and parameter sensitivity analyses to ask: which member(s) of the family of models best describes HNSCC response to cetuximab, and what does that tell us about the timing and mechanisms driving resistance? We find that along with time-course volumetric data to a single dose of cetuximab, the initial resistance fraction and, in some instances, dose escalation volumetric data are required to distinguish among the family of models and thereby infer the mechanisms of resistance. These findings can inform future experimental design so that we can best leverage the synergy of wet laboratory experimentation and mathematical modeling in the study of novel targeted cancer therapeutics.

Quantifying biochemical reaction rates from static population variability within incompletely observed complex networks

Quantifying biochemical reaction rates within complex cellular processes remains a key challenge of systems biology even as high-throughput single-cell data have become available to characterize snapshots of population variability. That is because complex systems with stochastic and non-linear interactions are difficult to analyze when not all components can be observed simultaneously and systems cannot be followed over time. Instead of using descriptive statistical models, we show that incompletely specified mechanistic models can be used to translate qualitative knowledge of interactions into reaction rate functions from covariability data between pairs of components. This promises to turn a globally intractable problem into a sequence of solvable inference problems to quantify complex interaction networks from incomplete snapshots of their stochastic fluctuations.

Differential methods for assessing sensitivity in biological models

Differential sensitivity analysis is indispensable in fitting parameters, understanding uncertainty, and forecasting the results of both thought and lab experiments. Although there are many methods currently available for performing differential sensitivity analysis of biological models, it can be difficult to determine which method is best suited for a particular model. In this paper, we explain a variety of differential sensitivity methods and assess their value in some typical biological models. First, we explain the mathematical basis for three numerical methods: adjoint sensitivity analysis, complex perturbation sensitivity analysis, and forward mode sensitivity analysis. We then carry out four instructive case studies. (a) The CARRGO model for tumor-immune interaction highlights the additional information that differential sensitivity analysis provides beyond traditional naive sensitivity methods, (b) the deterministic SIR model demonstrates the value of using second-order sensitivity in refining model predictions, (c) the stochastic SIR model shows how differential sensitivity can be attacked in stochastic modeling, and (d) a discrete birth-death-migration model illustrates how the complex perturbation method of differential sensitivity can be generalized to a broader range of biological models. Finally, we compare the speed, accuracy, and ease of use of these methods. We find that forward mode automatic differentiation has the quickest computational time, while the complex perturbation method is the simplest to implement and the most generalizable.

A Bayesian Approach to Extracting Kinetic Information from Artificial Enzymatic Networks

In order to create artificial enzymatic networks capable of increasingly complex behavior, an improved methodology in understanding and controlling the kinetics of these networks is needed. Here, we introduce a Bayesian analysis method allowing for the accurate inference of enzyme kinetic parameters and determination of most likely reaction mechanisms, by combining data from different experiments and network topologies in a single probabilistic analysis framework. This Bayesian approach explicitly allows us to continuously improve our parameter estimates and behavior predictions by iteratively adding new data to our models, while automatically taking into account uncertainties introduced by the experimental setups or the chemical processes in general. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by characterizing systems of enzymes compartmentalized in beads inside flow reactors. The methods we introduce here provide a new approach to the design of increasingly complex artificial enzymatic networks, making the design of such networks more efficient, and robust against the accumulation of experimental errors.

Bayesian Inference of Stochastic Dynamic Models Using Early-Rejection Methods Based on Sequential Stochastic Simulations

Stochastic modelling is an important method to investigate the functions of noise in a wide range of biological systems. However, the parameter inference for stochastic models is still a challenging problem partially due to the large computing time required for stochastic simulations. To address this issue, we propose a novel early-rejection method by using sequential stochastic simulations. We first show that a large number of stochastic simulations are required to obtain reliable inference results. Instead of generating a large number of simulations for each parameter sample, we propose to generate these simulations in a number of stages. The simulation process will go to the next stage only if the accuracy of simulations at the current stage satisfies a given error criterion. We propose a formula to determine the error criterion and use a stochastic differential equation model to examine the effects of different criteria. Three biochemical network models are used to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results suggest the proposed early-rejection method achieves substantial improvement in the efficiency for the inference of stochastic models.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

Stimulating at the right time to recover network states in a model of the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic circuit

Synchronization of neural oscillations is thought to facilitate communication in the brain. Neurodegenerative pathologies such as Parkinson’s disease (PD) can result in synaptic reorganization of the motor circuit, leading to altered neuronal dynamics and impaired neural communication. Treatments for PD aim to restore network function via pharmacological means such as dopamine replacement, or by suppressing pathological oscillations with deep brain stimulation. We tested the hypothesis that brain stimulation can operate beyond a simple “reversible lesion” effect to augment network communication. Specifically, we examined the modulation of beta band (14–30 Hz) activity, a known biomarker of motor deficits and potential control signal for stimulation in Parkinson’s. To do this we setup a neural mass model of population activity within the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic (CBGT) circuit with parameters that were constrained to yield spectral features comparable to those in experimental Parkinsonism. We modulated the connectivity of two major pathways known to be disrupted in PD and constructed statistical summaries of the spectra and functional connectivity of the resulting spontaneous activity. These were then used to assess the network-wide outcomes of closed-loop stimulation delivered to motor cortex and phase locked to subthalamic beta activity. Our results demonstrate that the spatial pattern of beta synchrony is dependent upon the strength of inputs to the STN. Precisely timed stimulation has the capacity to recover network states, with stimulation phase inducing activity with distinct spectral and spatial properties. These results provide a theoretical basis for the design of the next-generation brain stimulators that aim to restore neural communication in disease.

Diseases of the brain lead to a wide range of disabling symptoms for patients, by affecting their ability to move or think properly. These symptoms arise from disruption to both the organization of networks in the brain, but also the timing of neural activity that propagates around it. Treatments for disease with drugs can restore the organization of these networks to some extent, yet it is very difficult to deliver drugs with good spatial or temporal selectivity. Brain stimulation provides one way in which to improve the spatial specificity of treatment, yet understanding how to stimulate at the right time to achieve the best outcome for patients, remains an outstanding question. In this work we use simulations of an important circuit involved in Parkinson’s disease that has parameters chosen to reflect recordings made in animal models of the disease. Using this computer model, we show how brain rhythms can act as signatures of underlying changes in networks. Further, we simulate intervention with temporally precise stimulation to show how future approaches to brain stimulation can act to restore or even augment neural networks following their degeneration in disease.

Parameter inference for stochastic biochemical models from perturbation experiments parallelised at the single cell level

Understanding and characterising biochemical processes inside single cells requires experimental platforms that allow one to perturb and observe the dynamics of such processes as well as computational methods to build and parameterise models from the collected data. Recent progress with experimental platforms and optogenetics has made it possible to expose each cell in an experiment to an individualised input and automatically record cellular responses over days with fine time resolution. However, methods to infer parameters of stochastic kinetic models from single-cell longitudinal data have generally been developed under the assumption that experimental data is sparse and that responses of cells to at most a few different input perturbations can be observed. Here, we investigate and compare different approaches for calculating parameter likelihoods of single-cell longitudinal data based on approximations of the chemical master equation (CME) with a particular focus on coupling the linear noise approximation (LNA) or moment closure methods to a Kalman filter. We show that, as long as cells are measured sufficiently frequently, coupling the LNA to a Kalman filter allows one to accurately approximate likelihoods and to infer model parameters from data even in cases where the LNA provides poor approximations of the CME. Furthermore, the computational cost of filtering-based iterative likelihood evaluation scales advantageously in the number of measurement times and different input perturbations and is thus ideally suited for data obtained from modern experimental platforms. To demonstrate the practical usefulness of these results, we perform an experiment in which single cells, equipped with an optogenetic gene expression system, are exposed to various different light-input sequences and measured at several hundred time points and use parameter inference based on iterative likelihood evaluation to parameterise a stochastic model of the system.

A common result for the modelling of cellular processes is that available data is not sufficiently rich to uniquely determine the biological mechanism or even just to ensure identifiability of parameters of a given model. Perturbing cellular processes with informative input stimuli and measuring dynamical responses may alleviate this problem. With the development of novel experimental platforms, we are now in a position to parallelise such perturbation experiments at the single cell level. This raises a plethora of new questions. Is it more informative to diversify input perturbations but to observe only few cells for each input or should we rather ensure that many cells are observed for only few inputs? How can we calculate likelihoods and infer parameters of stochastic kinetic models from data sets in which each cell receives a different input perturbation? How does the computational efficiency of parameter inference methods scale with the number of inputs and the number of measurement times? Are there approaches that are particularly well-suited for such data sets? In this paper, we investigate these questions using the CcaS/CcaR optogenetic system driving the expression of a fluorescent reporter protein as primary case study.

A protocol for dynamic model calibration

Ordinary differential equation models are nowadays widely used for the mechanistic description of biological processes and their temporal evolution. These models typically have many unknown and nonmeasurable parameters, which have to be determined by fitting the model to experimental data. In order to perform this task, known as parameter estimation or model calibration, the modeller faces challenges such as poor parameter identifiability, lack of sufficiently informative experimental data and the existence of local minima in the objective function landscape. These issues tend to worsen with larger model sizes, increasing the computational complexity and the number of unknown parameters. An incorrectly calibrated model is problematic because it may result in inaccurate predictions and misleading conclusions. For nonexpert users, there are a large number of potential pitfalls. Here, we provide a protocol that guides the user through all the steps involved in the calibration of dynamic models. We illustrate the methodology with two models and provide all the code required to reproduce the results and perform the same analysis on new models. Our protocol provides practitioners and researchers in biological modelling with a one-stop guide that is at the same time compact and sufficiently comprehensive to cover all aspects of the problem.

OUP accepted manuscript

Motivation

Inferring the parameters of models describing biological systems is an important problem in the reverse engineering of the mechanisms underlying these systems. Much work has focused on parameter inference of stochastic and ordinary differential equation models using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). While there is some recent work on inference in spatial models, this remains an open problem. Simultaneously, advances in topological data analysis (TDA), a field of computational mathematics, have enabled spatial patterns in data to be characterized.

Results

Here, we focus on recent work using TDA to study different regimes of parameter space for a well-studied model of angiogenesis. We propose a method for combining TDA with ABC to infer parameters in the Anderson–Chaplain model of angiogenesis. We demonstrate that this topological approach outperforms ABC approaches that use simpler statistics based on spatial features of the data. This is a first step toward a general framework of spatial parameter inference for biological systems, for which there may be a variety of filtrations, vectorizations and summary statistics to be considered.

Availability and implementation

All code used to produce our results is available as a Snakemake workflow from github.com/tt104/tabc_angio.

Teaching computational systems biology with an eye on quantitative systems pharmacology at the undergraduate level: Why do it, who would take it, and what should we teach?

Computational systems biology (CSB) is a field that emerged primarily as the product of research activities. As such, it grew in several directions in a distributed and uncoordinated manner making the area appealing and fascinating. The idea of not having to follow a specific path but instead creating one fueled innovation. As the field matured, several interdisciplinary graduate programs emerged attempting to educate future generations of computational systems biologists. These educational initiatives coordinated the dissemination of information across student populations that had already decided to specialize in this field. However, we are now entering an era where CSB, having established itself as a valuable research discipline, is attempting the next major step: Entering undergraduate curricula. As interesting as this endeavor may sound, it has several difficulties, mainly because the field is not uniformly defined. In this manuscript, we argue that this diversity is a significant advantage and that several incarnations of an undergraduate-level CSB biology course could, and should, be developed tailored to programmatic needs. In this manuscript, we share our experiences creating a course as part of a Biomedical Engineering program.

Relationship Between Dimensionality and Convergence of Optimization Algorithms: A Comparison Between Data-Driven Normalization and Scaling Factor-Based Methods Using PEPSSBI

Ordinary differential equation models are used to represent intracellular signaling pathways in silico, aiding and guiding biological experiments to elucidate intracellular regulation. To construct such quantitative and predictive models of intracellular interactions, unknown parameters need to be estimated. Most of biological data are expressed in relative or arbitrary units, raising the question of how to compare model simulations with data. It has recently been shown that for models with large number of unknown parameters, fitting algorithms using a data-driven normalization of the simulations (DNS) performs best in terms of the convergence time and parameter identifiability. DNS approach compares model simulations and corresponding data both normalized by the same normalization procedure, without requiring additional parameters to be estimated, as necessary for widely used scaling factor-based methods. However, currently there is no parameter estimation software that directly supports DNS. In this chapter, we show how to apply DNS to dynamic models of systems and synthetic biology using PEPSSBI (Parameter Estimation Pipeline for Systems and Synthetic Biology). PEPSSBI is the first software that supports DNS, through algorithmically supported data normalization and objective function construction. PEPSSBI also supports model import using SBML and repeated parameter estimation runs executed in parallel either on a personal computer or a multi-CPU cluster.

Can Systems Biology Advance Clinical Precision Oncology?

Precision oncology is perceived as a way forward to treat individual cancer patients. However, knowing particular cancer mutations is not enough for optimal therapeutic treatment, because cancer genotype-phenotype relationships are nonlinear and dynamic. Systems biology studies the biological processes at the systems' level, using an array of techniques, ranging from statistical methods to network reconstruction and analysis, to mathematical modeling. Its goal is to reconstruct the complex and often counterintuitive dynamic behavior of biological systems and quantitatively predict their responses to environmental perturbations. In this paper, we review the impact of systems biology on precision oncology. We show examples of how the analysis of signal transduction networks allows to dissect resistance to targeted therapies and inform the choice of combinations of targeted drugs based on tumor molecular alterations. Patient-specific biomarkers based on dynamical models of signaling networks can have a greater prognostic value than conventional biomarkers. These examples support systems biology models as valuable tools to advance clinical and translational oncological research.

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for data-driven equation learning

Equation learning aims to infer differential equation models from data. While a number of studies have shown that differential equation models can be successfully identified when the data are sufficiently detailed and corrupted with relatively small amounts of noise, the relationship between observation noise and uncertainty in the learned differential equation models remains unexplored. We demonstrate that for noisy datasets there exists great variation in both the structure of the learned differential equation models and their parameter values. We explore how to exploit multiple datasets to quantify uncertainty in the learned models, and at the same time draw mechanistic conclusions about the target differential equations. We showcase our results using simulation data from a relatively straightforward agent-based model (ABM) which has a well-characterized partial differential equation description that provides highly accurate predictions of averaged ABM behaviours in relevant regions of parameter space. Our approach combines equation learning methods with Bayesian inference approaches so that a quantification of uncertainty can be given by the posterior parameter distribution of the learned model.

Inferring kinetic parameters of oscillatory gene regulation from single cell time-series data

Gene expression dynamics, such as stochastic oscillations and aperiodic fluctuations, have been associated with cell fate changes in multiple contexts, including development and cancer. Single cell live imaging of protein expression with endogenous reporters is widely used to observe such gene expression dynamics. However, the experimental investigation of regulatory mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics is challenging, since these mechanisms include complex interactions of multiple processes, including transcription, translation and protein degradation. Here, we present a Bayesian method to infer kinetic parameters of oscillatory gene expression regulation using an auto-negative feedback motif with delay. Specifically, we use a delay-adapted nonlinear Kalman filter within a Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm to identify posterior probability distributions. Our method can be applied to time-series data on gene expression from single cells and is able to infer multiple parameters simultaneously. We apply it to published data on murine neural progenitor cells and show that it outperforms alternative methods. We further analyse how parameter uncertainty depends on the duration and time resolution of an imaging experiment, to make experimental design recommendations. This work demonstrates the utility of parameter inference on time course data from single cells and enables new studies on cell fate changes and population heterogeneity.

New strategies for targeting kinase networks in cancer

Targeted strategies against specific driver molecules of cancer have brought about many advances in cancer treatment since the early success of the first small-molecule inhibitor Gleevec. Today, there are a multitude of targeted therapies approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of cancer. However, the initial efficacy of virtually every targeted treatment is often reversed by tumor resistance to the inhibitor through acquisition of new mutations in the target molecule, or reprogramming of the epigenome, transcriptome, or kinome of the tumor cells. At the core of this clinical problem lies the assumption that targeted treatments will only be efficacious if the inhibitors are used at their maximum tolerated doses. Such aggressive regimens create strong selective pressure on the evolutionary progression of the tumor, resulting in resistant cells. High-dose single agent treatments activate alternative mechanisms that bypass the inhibitor, while high-dose combinatorial treatments suffer from increased toxicity resulting in treatment cessation. Although there is an arsenal of targeted agents being tested clinically and preclinically, identifying the most effective combination treatment plan remains a challenge. In this review, we discuss novel targeted strategies with an emphasis on the recent cross-disciplinary studies demonstrating that it is possible to achieve antitumor efficacy without increasing toxicity by adopting low-dose multitarget approaches to treatment of cancer and metastasis.

Inference of brain networks with approximate Bayesian computation - assessing face validity with an example application in Parkinsonism

This paper describes and validates a novel framework using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm for parameter estimation and model selection in models of mesoscale brain network activity. We provide a proof of principle, first pass validation of this framework using a set of neural mass models of the cortico-basal ganglia thalamic circuit inverted upon spectral features from experimental, in vivo recordings. This optimization scheme relaxes an assumption of fixed-form posteriors (i.e. the Laplace approximation) taken in previous approaches to inverse modelling of spectral features. This enables the exploration of model dynamics beyond that approximated from local linearity assumptions and so fit to explicit, numerical solutions of the underlying non-linear system of equations. In this first paper, we establish a face validation of the optimization procedures in terms of: (i) the ability to approximate posterior densities over parameters that are plausible given the known causes of the data; (ii) the ability of the model comparison procedures to yield posterior model probabilities that can identify the model structure known to generate the data; and (iii) the robustness of these procedures to local minima in the face of different starting conditions. Finally, as an illustrative application we show (iv) that model comparison can yield plausible conclusions given the known neurobiology of the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamic circuit in Parkinsonism. These results lay the groundwork for future studies utilizing highly nonlinear or brittle models that can explain time dependant dynamics, such as oscillatory bursts, in terms of the underlying neural circuits.

Interrogating theoretical models of neural computation with emergent property inference

A cornerstone of theoretical neuroscience is the circuit model: a system of equations that captures a hypothesized neural mechanism. Such models are valuable when they give rise to an experimentally observed phenomenon -- whether behavioral or a pattern of neural activity -- and thus can offer insights into neural computation. The operation of these circuits, like all models, critically depends on the choice of model parameters. A key step is then to identify the model parameters consistent with observed phenomena: to solve the inverse problem. In this work, we present a novel technique, emergent property inference (EPI), that brings the modern probabilistic modeling toolkit to theoretical neuroscience. When theorizing circuit models, theoreticians predominantly focus on reproducing computational properties rather than a particular dataset. Our method uses deep neural networks to learn parameter distributions with these computational properties. This methodology is introduced through a motivational example of parameter inference in the stomatogastric ganglion. EPI is then shown to allow precise control over the behavior of inferred parameters and to scale in parameter dimension better than alternative techniques. In the remainder of this work, we present novel theoretical findings in models of primary visual cortex and superior colliculus, which were gained through the examination of complex parametric structure captured by EPI. Beyond its scientific contribution, this work illustrates the variety of analyses possible once deep learning is harnessed towards solving theoretical inverse problems.

Collocation based training of neural ordinary differential equations

The predictive power of machine learning models often exceeds that of mechanistic modeling approaches. However, the interpretability of purely data-driven models, without any mechanistic basis is often complicated, and predictive power by itself can be a poor metric by which we might want to judge different methods. In this work, we focus on the relatively new modeling techniques of neural ordinary differential equations. We discuss how they relate to machine learning and mechanistic models, with the potential to narrow the gulf between these two frameworks: they constitute a class of hybrid model that integrates ideas from data-driven and dynamical systems approaches. Training neural ODEs as representations of dynamical systems data has its own specific demands, and we here propose a collocation scheme as a fast and efficient training strategy. This alleviates the need for costly ODE solvers. We illustrate the advantages that collocation approaches offer, as well as their robustness to qualitative features of a dynamical system, and the quantity and quality of observational data. We focus on systems that exemplify some of the hallmarks of complex dynamical systems encountered in systems biology, and we map out how these methods can be used in the analysis of mathematical models of cellular and physiological processes.

Quantifying cell transitions in C. elegans with data-fitted landscape models

Increasing interest has emerged in new mathematical approaches that simplify the study of complex differentiation processes by formalizing Waddington's landscape metaphor. However, a rational method to build these landscape models remains an open problem. Here we study vulval development in C. elegans by developing a framework based on Catastrophe Theory (CT) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to build data-fitted landscape models. We first identify the candidate qualitative landscapes, and then use CT to build the simplest model consistent with the data, which we quantitatively fit using ABC. The resulting model suggests that the underlying mechanism is a quantifiable two-step decision controlled by EGF and Notch-Delta signals, where a non-vulval/vulval decision is followed by a bistable transition to the two vulval states. This new model fits a broad set of data and makes several novel predictions.

Limited inhibition of multiple nodes in a driver network blocks metastasis

Metastasis suppression by high-dose, multi-drug targeting is unsuccessful due to network heterogeneity and compensatory network activation. Here, we show that targeting driver network signaling capacity by limited inhibition of core pathways is a more effective anti-metastatic strategy. This principle underlies the action of a physiological metastasis suppressor, Raf Kinase Inhibitory Protein (RKIP), that moderately decreases stress-regulated MAP kinase network activity, reducing output to transcription factors such as pro-metastastic BACH1 and motility-related target genes. We developed a low-dose four-drug mimic that blocks metastatic colonization in mouse breast cancer models and increases survival. Experiments and network flow modeling show limited inhibition of multiple pathways is required to overcome variation in MAPK network topology and suppress signaling output across heterogeneous tumor cells. Restricting inhibition of individual kinases dissipates surplus signal, preventing threshold activation of compensatory kinase networks. This low-dose multi-drug approach to decrease signaling capacity of driver networks represents a transformative, clinically relevant strategy for anti-metastatic treatment.

Parameter inference for a stochastic kinetic model of expanded polyglutamine proteins

The presence of protein aggregates in cells is a known feature of many human age-related diseases, such as Huntington's disease. Simulations using fixed parameter values in a model of the dynamic evolution of expanded polyglutaime (PolyQ) proteins in cells have been used to gain a better understanding of the biological system. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the values of some of the parameters governing the system. Currently, appropriate values are chosen by ad hoc attempts to tune the parameters so that the model output matches experimental data. The problem is further complicated by the fact that the data only offer a partial insight into the underlying biological process: the data consist only of the proportions of cell death and of cells with inclusion bodies at a few time points, corrupted by measurement error. Developing inference procedures to estimate the model parameters in this scenario is a significant task. The model probabilities corresponding to the observed proportions cannot be evaluated exactly, and so they are estimated within the inference algorithm by repeatedly simulating realizations from the model. In general such an approach is computationally very expensive, and we therefore construct Gaussian process emulators for the key quantities and reformulate our algorithm around these fast stochastic approximations. We conclude by highlighting appropriate values of the model parameters leading to new insights into the underlying biological processes.

Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during pre-symptomatic infection. Unlike influenza, most SARS-CoV-2-infected people do not transmit while a small percentage infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models which link observed viral loads with epidemiologic features of each virus, including distribution of transmissions attributed to each infected person and duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person. We identify that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza can be highly contagious for less than 1 day, congruent with peak viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events occur when an infected person is shedding at a very high viral load and has a high number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 toward super-spreading events cannot be attributed to additional weeks of shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks, likely due to aerosolization.

Identifiability analysis for stochastic differential equation models in systems biology

Mathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically motivated synthetic data and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.

Training deep neural density estimators to identify mechanistic models of neural dynamics

Mechanistic modeling in neuroscience aims to explain observed phenomena in terms of underlying causes. However, determining which model parameters agree with complex and stochastic neural data presents a significant challenge. We address this challenge with a machine learning tool which uses deep neural density estimators-trained using model simulations-to carry out Bayesian inference and retrieve the full space of parameters compatible with raw data or selected data features. Our method is scalable in parameters and data features and can rapidly analyze new data after initial training. We demonstrate the power and flexibility of our approach on receptive fields, ion channels, and Hodgkin-Huxley models. We also characterize the space of circuit configurations giving rise to rhythmic activity in the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion, and use these results to derive hypotheses for underlying compensation mechanisms. Our approach will help close the gap between data-driven and theory-driven models of neural dynamics.

An automatic adaptive method to combine summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation

To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is that parameter inference must generally rely on summary statistics of the data. This is particularly the case for problems involving high-dimensional data, such as biological imaging experiments. However, some summary statistics contain more information about parameters of interest than others, and it is not always clear how to weight their contributions within the ABC framework. We address this problem by developing an automatic, adaptive algorithm that chooses weights for each summary statistic. Our algorithm aims to maximize the distance between the prior and the approximate posterior by automatically adapting the weights within the ABC distance function. Computationally, we use a nearest neighbour estimator of the distance between distributions. We justify the algorithm theoretically based on properties of the nearest neighbour distance estimator. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm, we apply it to a variety of test problems, including several stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks, and a spatial model of diffusion, and compare our results with existing algorithms.

Extended Robust Boolean Network of Budding Yeast Cell Cycle

Background:

How to explore the dynamics of transition probabilities between phases of budding yeast cell cycle (BYCC) network based on the dynamics of protein activities that control this network? How to identify the robust structure of protein interactions of BYCC Boolean network (BN)? Budding yeast allows scientists to put experiments into effect in order to discover the intracellular cell cycle regulating structures which are well simulated by mathematical modeling.

Methods:

We extended an available deterministic BN of proteins responsible for the cell cycle to a Markov chain model containing apoptosis besides G1, S, G2, M, and stationary G1. Using genetic algorithm (GA), we estimated the kinetic parameters of the extended BN model so that the subsequent transition probabilities derived using Markov chain model of cell states as normal cell cycle becomes the maximum while the structure of chemical interactions of extended BN of cell cycle becomes more stable.

Results:

Using kinetic parameters optimized by GA, the probability of the subsequent transitions between cell cycle phases is maximized. The relative basin size of stationary G1 increased from 86% to 96.48% while the number of attractors decreased from 7 in the original model to 5 in the extended one. Hence, an increase in the robustness of the system has been achieved.

Conclusion:

The structure of interacting proteins in cell cycle network affects its robustness and probabilities of transitions between different cell cycle phases. Markov chain and BN are good approaches to study the stability and dynamics of the cell cycle network.

Application of conditional robust calibration to ordinary differential equations models in computational systems biology: a comparison of two sampling strategies

Mathematical modelling is a widely used technique for describing the temporal behaviour of biological systems. One of the most challenging topics in computational systems biology is the calibration of non-linear models; i.e. the estimation of their unknown parameters. The state-of-the-art methods in this field are the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. For both of them, the performance and accuracy of results greatly depend on the sampling technique employed. Here, the authors test a novel Bayesian procedure for parameter estimation, called conditional robust calibration (CRC), comparing two different sampling techniques: uniform and logarithmic Latin hypercube sampling. CRC is an iterative algorithm based on parameter space sampling and on the estimation of parameter density functions. They apply CRC with both sampling strategies to the three ordinary differential equations (ODEs) models of increasing complexity. They obtain a more precise and reliable solution through logarithmically spaced samples.

Mechanistic modelling of tyrosine recombination reveals key parameters determining the performance of a CAR T cell switching circuit

Inducible genetic switches based on tyrosine recombinase-based DNA excision are a promising platform for the regulation and control of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell activity in cancer immunotherapy. These switches exploit the increased stability of DNA excision in tyrosine recombinases through an inversion-excision circuit design. Here, the authors develop the first mechanistic mathematical model of switching dynamics in tyrosine recombinases and validate it against experimental data through both global optimisation and statistical approximation approaches. Analysis of this model provides guidelines regarding which system parameters are best suited to experimental tuning in order to establish optimal switch performance in vivo. In particular, they find that the switching response can be made significantly faster by increasing the concentration of the inducer drug 4-OHT and/or by using promoters generating higher expression levels of the FlpO recombinase.

Parallel Tempering with Lasso for model reduction in systems biology

Systems Biology models reveal relationships between signaling inputs and observable molecular or cellular behaviors. The complexity of these models, however, often obscures key elements that regulate emergent properties. We use a Bayesian model reduction approach that combines Parallel Tempering with Lasso regularization to identify minimal subsets of reactions in a signaling network that are sufficient to reproduce experimentally observed data. The Bayesian approach finds distinct reduced models that fit data equivalently. A variant of this approach that uses Lasso to perform selection at the level of reaction modules is applied to the NF-κB signaling network to test the necessity of feedback loops for responses to pulsatile and continuous pathway stimulation. Taken together, our results demonstrate that Bayesian parameter estimation combined with regularization can isolate and reveal core motifs sufficient to explain data from complex signaling systems.

Cells respond to diverse environmental cues using complex networks of interacting proteins and other biomolecules. Mathematical and computational models have become invaluable tools to understand these networks and make informed predictions to rationally perturb cell behavior. However, the complexity of detailed models that try to capture all known biochemical elements of signaling networks often makes it difficult to determine the key regulatory elements that are responsible for specific cell behaviors. Here, we present a Bayesian computational approach, PTLasso, to automatically extract minimal subsets of detailed models that are sufficient to explain experimental data. The method simultaneously calibrates and reduces models, and the Bayesian approach samples globally, allowing us to find alternate mechanistic explanations for the data if present. We demonstrate the method on both synthetic and real biological data and show that PTLasso is an effective method to isolate distinct parts of a larger signaling model that are sufficient for specific data.

Simulation and inference algorithms for stochastic biochemical reaction networks: from basic concepts to state-of-the-art

Stochasticity is a key characteristic of intracellular processes such as gene regulation and chemical signalling. Therefore, characterizing stochastic effects in biochemical systems is essential to understand the complex dynamics of living things. Mathematical idealizations of biochemically reacting systems must be able to capture stochastic phenomena. While robust theory exists to describe such stochastic models, the computational challenges in exploring these models can be a significant burden in practice since realistic models are analytically intractable. Determining the expected behaviour and variability of a stochastic biochemical reaction network requires many probabilistic simulations of its evolution. Using a biochemical reaction network model to assist in the interpretation of time-course data from a biological experiment is an even greater challenge due to the intractability of the likelihood function for determining observation probabilities. These computational challenges have been subjects of active research for over four decades. In this review, we present an accessible discussion of the major historical developments and state-of-the-art computational techniques relevant to simulation and inference problems for stochastic biochemical reaction network models. Detailed algorithms for particularly important methods are described and complemented with Matlab^® implementations. As a result, this review provides a practical and accessible introduction to computational methods for stochastic models within the life sciences community.

A comparison of approximate versus exact techniques for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear ordinary differential equation models

The behaviour of many processes in science and engineering can be accurately described by dynamical system models consisting of a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Often these models have several unknown parameters that are difficult to estimate from experimental data, in which case Bayesian inference can be a useful tool. In principle, exact Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is possible; however, in practice, such methods may suffer from slow convergence and poor mixing. To address this problem, several approaches based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been introduced, including Markov chain Monte Carlo ABC (MCMC ABC) and sequential Monte Carlo ABC (SMC ABC). While the system of ODEs describes the underlying process that generates the data, the observed measurements invariably include errors. In this paper, we argue that several popular ABC approaches fail to adequately model these errors because the acceptance probability depends on the choice of the discrepancy function and the tolerance without any consideration of the error term. We observe that the so-called posterior distributions derived from such methods do not accurately reflect the epistemic uncertainties in parameter values. Moreover, we demonstrate that these methods provide minimal computational advantages over exact Bayesian methods when applied to two ODE epidemiological models with simulated data and one with real data concerning malaria transmission in Afghanistan.

TopoFilter: a MATLAB package for mechanistic model identification in systems biology

Background

To develop mechanistic dynamic models in systems biology, one often needs to identify all (or minimal) representations of the biological processes that are consistent with experimental data, out of a potentially large set of hypothetical mechanisms. However, a simple enumeration of all alternatives becomes quickly intractable when the number of model parameters grows. Selecting appropriate dynamic models out of a large ensemble of models, taking the uncertainty in our biological knowledge and in the experimental data into account, is therefore a key current problem in systems biology.

Results

The TopoFilter package addresses this problem in a heuristic and automated fashion by implementing the previously described topological filtering method for Bayesian model selection. It includes a core heuristic for searching the space of submodels of a parametrized model, coupled with a sampling-based exploration of the parameter space. Recent developments of the method allow to balance exhaustiveness and speed of the model space search, to efficiently re-sample parameters, to parallelize the search, and to use custom scoring functions. We use a theoretical example to motivate these features and then demonstrate TopoFilter’s applicability for a yeast signaling network with more than 250’000 possible model structures.

Conclusions

TopoFilter is a flexible software framework that makes Bayesian model selection and reduction efficient and scalable to network models of a complexity that represents contemporary problems in, for example, cell signaling. TopoFilter is open-source, available under the GPL-3.0 license at https://gitlab.com/csb.ethz/TopoFilter. It includes installation instructions, a quickstart guide, a description of all package options, and multiple examples.

Using a continuum model to decipher the mechanics of embryonic tissue spreading from time-lapse image sequences: An approximate Bayesian computation approach

Advanced imaging techniques generate large datasets capable of describing the structure and kinematics of tissue spreading in embryonic development, wound healing, and the progression of many diseases. These datasets can be integrated with mathematical models to infer biomechanical properties of the system, typically identifying an optimal set of parameters for an individual experiment. However, these methods offer little information on the robustness of the fit and are generally ill-suited for statistical tests of multiple experiments. To overcome this limitation and enable efficient use of large datasets in a rigorous experimental design, we use the approximate Bayesian computation rejection algorithm to construct probability density distributions that estimate model parameters for a defined theoretical model and set of experimental data. Here, we demonstrate this method with a 2D Eulerian continuum mechanical model of spreading embryonic tissue. The model is tightly integrated with quantitative image analysis of different sized embryonic tissue explants spreading on extracellular matrix (ECM) and is regulated by a small set of parameters including forces on the free edge, tissue stiffness, strength of cell-ECM adhesions, and active cell shape changes. We find statistically significant trends in key parameters that vary with initial size of the explant, e.g., for larger explants cell-ECM adhesion forces are weaker and free edge forces are stronger. Furthermore, we demonstrate that estimated parameters for one explant can be used to predict the behavior of other similarly sized explants. These predictive methods can be used to guide further experiments to better understand how collective cell migration is regulated during development.

Comprehensive Review of Models and Methods for Inferences in Bio-Chemical Reaction Networks

The key processes in biological and chemical systems are described by networks of chemical reactions. From molecular biology to biotechnology applications, computational models of reaction networks are used extensively to elucidate their non-linear dynamics. The model dynamics are crucially dependent on the parameter values which are often estimated from observations. Over the past decade, the interest in parameter and state estimation in models of (bio-) chemical reaction networks (BRNs) grew considerably. The related inference problems are also encountered in many other tasks including model calibration, discrimination, identifiability, and checking, and optimum experiment design, sensitivity analysis, and bifurcation analysis. The aim of this review paper is to examine the developments in literature to understand what BRN models are commonly used, and for what inference tasks and inference methods. The initial collection of about 700 documents concerning estimation problems in BRNs excluding books and textbooks in computational biology and chemistry were screened to select over 270 research papers and 20 graduate research theses. The paper selection was facilitated by text mining scripts to automate the search for relevant keywords and terms. The outcomes are presented in tables revealing the levels of interest in different inference tasks and methods for given models in the literature as well as the research trends are uncovered. Our findings indicate that many combinations of models, tasks and methods are still relatively unexplored, and there are many new research opportunities to explore combinations that have not been considered-perhaps for good reasons. The most common models of BRNs in literature involve differential equations, Markov processes, mass action kinetics, and state space representations whereas the most common tasks are the parameter inference and model identification. The most common methods in literature are Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo sampling strategies, and model fitting to data using evolutionary algorithms. The new research problems which cannot be directly deduced from the text mining data are also discussed.