Weight change in relation to mortality in middle-aged and elderly Chinese: the Singapore Chinese Health Study

Association Between Weight Change During Adulthood and Chronic Kidney Disease: Results from a National Survey 2011-2018

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate the intricate relationship between weight change patterns and the onset of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although obesity is recognized as a predisposing factor for CKD, the dynamics of weight fluctuation and its impact on CKD development are not well-defined. By analyzing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning 2011 to 2018, we sought to elucidate the association between weight trajectories and CKD risk.

Patients and Methods

We included participants aged ≥40 years, employing body mass index (BMI) measurements at three life stages-baseline, age 25, and a decade preceding baseline-to categorize weight change patterns. Logistic regression was employed to evaluate the association of these patterns with CKD onset, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

The study encompassed 12,284 participants, with 2893 individuals diagnosed with CKD. Transitioning from normal weight to obesity and staying obese throughout adulthood were found to increase the risk of developing CKD. These associations remained consistent after adjusting for covariates but were statistically insignificant after adjusting for comorbidities. Notably, individuals transitioning from obesity to normal weight from age 25 to baseline and from 10 years before baseline to baseline demonstrated significant correlations with CKD but not between age 25 and 10 years before baseline.

Conclusion

Obesity, weight gain throughout adulthood, and weight loss in middle-to-late adulthood are associated with an increased risk of CKD. This emphasizes the importance of long-term weight change patterns and maintaining a healthy weight throughout adulthood.

Early adulthood weight change, midlife "Life's essential 8" health status and risk of cardiometabolic diseases: a chinese nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between weight change during early adulthood and cardiometabolic diseases remains uncertain in Chinese population. Whether the association varies with comprehensive cardiovascular health (CVH) in midlife assessed by "Life's Essential 8" has not been characterized. We aim to examine the associations of early adulthood weight change and midlife "Life's Essential 8" CVH status with cardiometabolic outcomes in a Chinese cohort.

METHODS

The study participants were from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4 C) Study. This analysis included 72,610 middle-aged and older participants followed for a median of 3.6 years. At baseline, the participants recalled body weight at age 20 and 40 years, and we calculated change in weight and BMI between 20 and 40 years of age. Health behaviors information in "Life's Essential 8" was collected by questionnaire, and health factors were measured in the study center. During follow-up, we ascertained incident cardiovascular events based on medical records, and diagnosed incident diabetes according to the American Diabetes Association 2010 criteria.

RESULTS

72,610 study participants were included with a mean age of 56.0 ± 8.8 years and 29% of them were males. Weight gain of more than 10 kg between 20 and 40 years of age was associated with 22% increased risk of incident cardiovascular events (HR: 1.22; 95%CI: 1.04-1.43) and 38% increased risk of diabetes (HR: 1.38; 95%CI: 1.25-1.53) compared to stable weight. Besides, the association of weight gain more than 10 kg in early adulthood with cardiometabolic risk was even stronger in those with low CVH score in midlife (HR: 2.44; 95%CI: 2.01-2.97 for incident cardiovascular events; HR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.90-2.55 for incident diabetes) or with few ideal cardiovascular health metrics in midlife.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated that weight gain in early adulthood was associated with significantly increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. And the association could be stronger in those with poor CVH profiles in midlife. These findings confirmed the significance of weight management during early adulthood and suggested that individuals who experienced substantial weight gain in early life should be encouraged to maintain good CVH status in Chinese population.

Association of body weight change with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A nationwide population-based study

AIMS

Weight gain and loss increase the risk of all-cause mortality. This study explored the association of short-term weight change with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged to older people.

METHODS

This was a 8.4-year retrospective cohort study of 645,260 adults aged 40 to 80 who underwent health checkups twice within a 2-year interval between January 2009 and December 2012. Cox analyses were used to analyze the association between short-term weight change and all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Weight gain and loss were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality: the hazard ratios were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.93-2.16), 1.21 (95% CI, 1.16-1.25), 1.12 (95% CI 1.08-1.17), and 1.60 (95% CI, 1.49-1.70) for the severe weight loss, moderate weight loss, moderate weight gain, and severe weight gain groups, respectively. This U-shaped association was also seen between weight change and cause-specific mortality. Within the weight loss group, those who regained weight after two years had a reduced mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In a middle-aged and elderly population, weight gain or loss of more than 3% during a 2-year interval was related to an elevated risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Associations of Change in Body Size With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Healthy Older Adults

Importance

The association between weight change and subsequent cause-specific mortality among older adults is not well described. The significance of changes in waist circumference (WC) has also not been compared with weight change for this purpose.

Objective

To examine the associations of changes in body weight and WC with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study is a post hoc analysis of data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial, which recruited participants between March 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014. The study included community-based older adults (16 703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2411 US participants aged ≥65 years) without evident cardiovascular disease (CVD), dementia, physical disability, or life-limiting chronic illness. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2022.

Exposures

Body weight and WC were measured at baseline and at annual visit 2. Analysis models were adjusted for baseline body mass index because height and weight were measured at baseline, allowing for calculation of body mass index and other variables. Both body weight and WC changes were categorized as change within 5% (stable), decrease by 5% to 10%, decrease by more than 10%, increase by 5% to 10%, and increase by more than 10%.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause, cancer-specific, CVD-specific, and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality. Mortality events were adjudicated by an expert review panel. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Among 16 523 participants (mean [SD] age, 75.0 [4.3] years; 9193 women [55.6%]), 1256 deaths were observed over a mean (SD) of 4.4 (1.7) years. Compared with men with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 33% higher (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.07-1.66) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 289% higher (HR, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.93-5.18) risk. Compared with women with stable weight, those with a 5% to 10% weight loss had a 26% higher (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.00-1.60) risk of all-cause mortality, and those with more than a 10% decrease in body weight had a 114% higher (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.58-2.91) risk. Weight loss was associated with a higher cancer-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.40; 5%-10% decrease among women: HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.46-2.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.82-4.26), CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.63-6.04; >10% decrease among women: HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.05-3.51), and noncancer non-CVD-specific mortality (>10% decrease among men: HR, 4.98; 95% CI, 3.14-7.91). A decrease in WC was also associated with mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study of healthy older adults suggests that weight loss was associated with an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including an increased risk of cancer, CVD, and other life-limiting conditions. Physicians should be aware of the significance of weight loss, especially among older men.

Association of body mass index and weight change with pneumonia mortality in a Japanese population: Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidence suggests that pneumonia mortality is lower for individuals with high body mass index (BMI) compared to normal BMI, but it remains unclear whether weight change during adulthood influences subsequent mortality due to pneumonia in Asian populations, who have a relatively lean body mass. This study aimed to examine the association of BMI and weight change over 5 years with the subsequent risk of pneumonia mortality in a Japanese population.

METHODS

The present analysis included 79,564 Japan Public Health Center (JPHC)-based Prospective Study participants who completed a questionnaire between 1995 and 1998 were followed for death through 2016. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m²), normal weight (BMI: 18.5-24.9 kg/m²), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m²), and obese (BMI: ≥30.0 kg/m²). Weight change was defined as the difference of body weight between questionnaire surveys with a 5-year interval. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of baseline BMI and weight change for pneumonia mortality.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 18.9 y, we identified 994 deaths from pneumonia. Compared with participants with normal weight, an elevated risk was observed among those who were underweight (hazard ratio = 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.83-2.87), whereas a decreased risk was found among those who were overweight (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.53-0.75). Regarding weight change, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of pneumonia mortality for a weight loss of 5 kg or more versus a weight change of less than 2.5 kg was 1.75 (1.46-2.10), whereas that for a weight gain of 5 kg or more was 1.59 (1.27-2.00).

CONCLUSION

Underweight and greater weight change was associated with an increase in the risk of pneumonia mortality in Japanese adults.

Implicit satiety goals and food-related expectations predict portion size in older adults: Findings from the BAMMBE cohort

Portion size selection is an indicator of appetite and within younger adults, is predicted by factors such as expected satiety, liking and motivations to achieve an ideal sensation of fullness (i.e., implicit satiety goals). Currently, there is limited research available on the determinants of portion size selection within older adults. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine the relationship between individual differences in implicit satiety goals, food-related expectations, and portion size selection in older adults. Free-living older adult Singaporeans (N = 115; Nmales = 62; age: M = 66.21 years, SD = 4.78, range = 60-83 years) participated as part of the Brain, Ageing, Microbiome, Muscle, Bone, and Exercise Study (BAMMBE). Participants completed questionnaires on their subjective requirements for experiencing different states of satiety and food-related expectations (i.e., liking, how filling) as well as a computerised portion size selection task. Using a multiple regression, we found that goals to feel comfortably full (B = 3.08, SE = 1.04, t = 2.96, p = .004) and to stop hunger (B = -2.25, SE = 0.82, t = -2.75, p = .007) significantly predicted larger portion size selection (R2 = 0.24, F(4,87) = 6.74, p < .001). Larger portion sizes (R2 = 0.53, F(5,90) = 20.58, p < .001) were also predicted by greater expected satiety (B = 0.47, SE = 0.09, t = 5.15, p < .001) and lower perceptions of how filling foods are (B = -2.92, SE = 0.77, t = -3.79, p < .001) but not liking (B = -0.09, SE = 0.91, t = -0.10, p = .925) or frequency (B = -18.42, SE = 16.91, t = -1.09, p = .279) of consumption of target foods. Comparing our findings to results of studies conducted with younger adults suggests the influence of factors such as satiety related goals on portion size selection may change with ageing while the influence of other factors (e.g., expected satiety/fullness delivered by foods) may remain consistent. These findings may inform future strategies to increase/decrease portion size accordingly to ensure older adults maintain an appropriate healthy weight.

Weight loss and all-cause mortality: A propensity score matching cohort study

BACKGROUND

Weight loss was supposed to help with decreasing risk of premature mortality. However, results on this topic remain debatable and limited by study design.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to investigate the association between weight loss and all-cause mortality among US adults with overweight or obesity in a national cohort study by using propensity score matching (PSM) analysis.

METHODS

A total of 5486 pairs of participants were matched in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2003-2015) after PSM. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) (HRs (95% CIs)) were employed to evaluate the association between weight loss indicated by long-term weight loss (LTWL) and all-cause mortality by using Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.8 years, 674 participants died from all-cause mortality. In each PSM match, compared with participants with LTWL < 5%, the HRs (95% CIs) for participants with LTWL of 5-9.9% (2877 pairs), 10-14.9% (1315 pairs), and ≥ 15% (1294 pairs) were 1.18 (0.83-1.68) (P = 0.366), 1.65 (1.17-2.34) (P = 0.005), and 1.91 (1.21-3.00) (P = 0.006), respectively. The significant increased risk of all-cause mortality for LTWL ≥ 15% remained among male, female, participants aged ≥ 65 years, without weight loss intention, with non-communicable diseases, and without exceeding estimated energy requirement.

CONCLUSION

Weight loss especially for being ≥ 15% should be cautious for US adults with overweight or obesity.

Three-year weight change and risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality among Iranian adults: over a decade of follow-up in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Background

We investigated the impact of weight change on mortality in a population-based cohort setting.

Methods

We conducted two weight measurements for 5436 participants aged ≥ 30 years with an approximate 3-year interval. Based on their weight change, we categorized participants to: > 5% weight loss, 3–5% weight loss, stable weight (± < 3%), 3–5% weight gain, > 5% weight gain. We followed participants for mortality annually up to March 20th 2018. We applied the multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of weight change categories for all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and cancer mortality, considering stable weight as reference. The Cox models was adjusted for age, sex, educational level, body mass index, smoking status, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline.

Results

During a median follow-up of 14.4 years, 629 deaths (247 CV and 126 cancer deaths) have occurred. Over 5% weight loss and gain were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in multivariable analysis with HRs of 1.47 [95% CI: 1.17–1.85] and 1.27 [1.02–1.57], respectively; however, a 3–5% loss or gain did not alter the risk of all-cause mortality significantly. These significant risks for wight change > 5% were not modified by the presence of diabetes, obesity, and smoking status; however, the unfavorable impact of weight change on mortality events was more prominent in those older than > 65 years (P-value for interaction: 0.042). After excluding those with history of CVD, diabetes, and cancer during the weight measurements period, these associations significantly attenuated (HR: 1.29 [0.89–1.87] for > 5% weight loss and 1.12 [0.84–1.50] for > 5% weight gain). Additionally, a > 5% weight loss was also associated with about 60% higher risk for CV mortality (HR: 1.62 [1.15–2.28]), and a 3–5% weight loss was associated with about 95% higher risk of cancer mortality (HR: 1.95 [1.13–3.38]).

Conclusions

Our findings showed a U-shaped association across weight change categories for all-cause mortality risk with over 5% weight gain and loss causing higher risk. Moreover, weight loss can have adverse impact on CV and cancer mortality events.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14126-4.

Analysis of Changes in Weight, Waist Circumference, or Both, and All-Cause Mortality in Chinese Adults

IMPORTANCE

Although numerous studies have separately investigated the associations of changes in weight or waist circumference with mortality risk, few studies have examined the associations of concurrent changes in these 2 anthropometric parameters with all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of changes in body weight, waist circumference, or both, combined with all-cause mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from 2 longitudinal cohort studies in Dongfeng-Tongji and Kailuan, China. Participants included 58 132 adults (aged 40 years and older) with measures of weight and waist circumference at baseline and follow-up visit. Statistical analysis was performed from June 2020 to September 2021.

EXPOSURES

Changes in weight and waist circumference between 2 visits (2008-2010 to 2013 in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort, and 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 in the Kailuan study). Stable weight was defined as change in weight within 2.5 kg between the 2 visits and stable waist circumference was defined as changes within 3.0 cm. Changes were categorized as loss, stable, or gain for weight and waist circumference separately, and created a 9-category variable to represent the joint changes.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality from follow-up visit (2013 in Dongfeng-Tongji cohort and 2010-2011 in Kailuan study) until December 31, 2018. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the associations with adjustment for potential confounders. Results were obtained in the 2 cohorts separately and pooled via fixed-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 10 951 participants in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort (median [IQR] age, 62 [56-66] years; 4203 [38.4%] men) and 47 181 participants in the Kailuan study (median [IQR] age, 51 [46-58] years; 36 663 [77.7%] men) were included in the analysis. During 426 072 person-years of follow-up, 4028 deaths (523 in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort and 3505 in the Kailuan study) were documented. When changes in weight and waist circumference were examined separately, U-shape associations were found: both gain and loss in weight (weight loss: pooled hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.23-1.43; weight gain: HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19) or waist circumference (waist circumference loss: HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.24; waist circumference gain: HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.21) were associated with higher mortality risk compared with stable weight or waist group. When changes in weight and waist circumference were jointly assessed, compared with participants with stable weight and waist circumference (16.9% of the total population [9828 of 58 132] with 508 deaths), participants with different combinations of weight and waist circumference change all had higher mortality risks except for those with stable weight but significant loss in waist. Notably, those who lost weight but gained waist circumference (6.4% of the total population [3698 of 58 132] with 308 deaths) had the highest risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.46-1.96; absolute rate difference per 100 000 person-years in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort: 414; 95% CI, 116-819; and in the Kailuan study: 333; 95% CI, 195-492) among the joint subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, weight loss with concurrent waist circumference gain was associated with a higher mortality risk in middle-aged and older Chinese adults. This study's findings suggest the importance of evaluating the changes in both body weight and waist circumference when assessing their associations with mortality.

Association Between Weight Change and Increased Likelihood of Abdominal Aortic Calcification Among Men

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to explore the effect of weight change on abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) among men.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2013 to 2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Self-reported cardiovascular disease patients were excluded. Lateral spine images were used to quantify AAC score and severe AAC was defined as a AAC score greater than 6. Weight change over a 10-year period was defined as long-term weight change, and weight change over a 1-year period was defined as short-term weight change. The relationship between long-term and short-term weight change with AAC grade was estimated by using multivariable regression analysis and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, weight gain, especially severe weight gain (> 10 kg), was associated with increased likelihood of AAC and severe AAC both in the short term (1 year) and long term (10 years) among men when compared to stable weight change, while long-term weight loss could also lead to an increased likelihood of AAC and severe AAC.

CONCLUSION

Stable body weight might be a predictor of a lower risk of AAC and severe AAC among men in the long term and short term.

Arterial and Cardiac Remodeling Associated With Extra Weight Gain in an Isolated Abdominal Obesity Cohort

Introduction: This study aims to assess the changes in cardiovascular remodeling attributable to bodyweight gain in a middle-aged abdominal obesity cohort. A remodeling worsening might explain the increase in cardiovascular risk associated with a dynamic of weight gain. Methods: Seventy-five middle-aged subjects (56 ± 5 years, 38 women) with abdominal obesity and no known cardiovascular disease underwent MRI-based examinations at baseline and at a 6.1 ± 1.2-year follow-up to monitor cardiovascular remodeling and hemodynamic variables, most notably the effective arterial elastance (Ea). Ea is a proxy of the arterial load that must be overcome during left ventricular (LV) ejection, with increased EA resulting in concentric LV remodeling. Results: Sixteen obese subjects had significant weight gain (>7%) during follow-up (WG+), whereas the 59 other individuals did not (WG-). WG+ and WG- exhibited significant differences in the baseline to follow-up evolutions of several hemodynamic parameters, notably diastolic and mean blood pressures (for mean blood pressure, WG+: +9.3 ± 10.9 mmHg vs. WG-: +1.7 ± 11.8 mmHg, p = 0.022), heart rate (WG+: +0.6 ± 9.4 min^-1 vs. -8.9 ± 11.5 min^-1, p = 0.003), LV concentric remodeling index (WG: +0.08 ± 0.16 g.mL^-1 vs. WG-: -0.02 ± 0.13 g.mL^-1, p = 0.018) and Ea (WG+: +0.20 ± 0.28 mL mmHg^-1 vs. WG-: +0.01 ± 0.30 mL mmHg^-1, p = 0.021). The evolution of the LV concentric remodeling index and Ea were also strongly correlated in the overall obese population (p < 0.001, R² = 0.31). Conclusions: A weight gain dynamic is accompanied by increases in arterial load and load-related concentric LV remodeling in an isolated abdominal obesity cohort. This remodeling could have a significant impact on cardiovascular risk.

Continuing regular physical activity and maintaining body weight have a synergistic interaction in improving survival: a population-based cohort study including 6.5 million people

AIMS

Continuing physical activity (PA) and maintaining body weight are tightly intertwined; however, no study investigated whether these two factors have interactions in terms of the mortality. The aim of this study is to elucidate whether continuing regular PA and maintaining body weight have interactions in terms of all-cause mortality risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants with health screening from both 2009 and 2011 without underlying cancer or cardiovascular disease were included. Physical activity change was grouped as remained active, inactive-to-active, active-to-inactive, or remained inactive. Body weight change was categorized as stable (weight change < 5%), weight gain, or loss. Outcome included all-cause mortality. Of 6 572 984 total participants, 91 347 deaths occurred during a median 7.4-year follow-up. Compared with the remained active and stable weight group, most other groups had a higher mortality risk. The weight loss and remained inactive group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 2.30; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.22-2.38] and the weight gain and remained inactive group (aHR, 2.17; 95% CI, 2.09-2.25) showed the highest mortality risks. Among stable weight participants, the ranking of the groups from highest to lowest in terms of mortality risk was as follows: remained inactive (aHR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.41-1.50), active-to-inactive (aHR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.19-1.29), inactive-to-active (aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.11-1.20), and remained active (reference). Remaining active and maintaining a stable body weight had a synergistic interaction on decreasing all-cause mortality risk (multiplicative P for interaction < 0.001; relative excess risk due to interaction, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.31-0.46; attributable proportion, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.15-0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing regular PA as recommended and maintaining body weight have multiplicative and additive interactions on reducing all-cause mortality. Healthcare providers should emphasize the importance of both regular PA and body weight maintenance for the general public.

Associations of weight changes with all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality: A prospective cohort study

Objectives

Previous studies suggest that changes in body weight can lead to an increased risk of mortality in the general population, although the results are controversial. The current study sought to investigate this association further using data from the UK Biobank.

Study design

This is a large prospective population-based cohort study. Data were derived from the UK Biobank, with the initial assessments commencing between 2006 and 2010.

Methods

Proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between self-reported weight change and risk of all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality. The effect of gender was also investigated.

Results

Of 433,829 participants with data for self-reported weight change, the mean age was 56 (standard deviation [SD]: 8.1) years and 55% were female. In total, 55% of participants reported no weight change, 28% gained weight, 15% lost weight, 2% did not know and 0.1% preferred not to give an answer. The median follow-up was 7.1 (interquartile range [IQR]: 6.4–7.8) years. Compared with participants with no weight change, those with weight loss had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% confident interval [CI] 1.18–1.32), cancer death (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.08–1.27) and cardiovascular death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.12–1.43). Similarly, participants reporting weight gain also had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.13), cancer death (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07–1.22) and cardiovascular death (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.14–1.42). Participants who had a response ‘do not know’ or ‘prefer not to answer’ showed an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, particularly in men.

Conclusions

The results of this study highlight the importance of maintaining a stable weight in middle-aged adults. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiology of weight change and its effects on mortality.

Short-, Medium-, and Long-term Weight Changes and All-Cause Mortality in Old Age: Findings From the National Survey of the Japanese Elderly

BACKGROUND

Recent studies, predominantly in Western populations, suggest that both weight loss and weight gain are associated with an increased mortality risk in old age. However, evidence of this association in older Asian populations remains sparse. This study aimed to examine the association between weight change and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling older Japanese people.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Survey of the Japanese Elderly, which included 4869 adults aged ≥60 years. Participants were followed for up to 30 years. We considered 3 indicators of weight change according to the follow-up interval: short-term (3 years), medium-term (6-7 years), and long-term (12-13 years). Weight change was classified as loss ≥ 5%, loss 2.5%-4.9%, stable (±2.4%), gain 2.5%-4.9%, and gain ≥ 5%. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the relative mortality risk of each weight change category.

RESULTS

Weight loss ≥ 5% for all intervals was associated with higher mortality than stable weight and the effects were largely similar across all 3 intervals (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.36 [1.22-1.51] for short-term, 1.36 [1.22-1.51] for medium-term, and 1.31 [1.11-1.54] for long-term). A similar pattern of results was observed among the young-old and old-old, and among men and women. The effect of weight loss on higher mortality was greater among those with a lower body mass index at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could inform clinical and public health approaches to body-weight management aimed at improving the health and survival of older adults, particularly in Asian populations.

Age-Related Difference in Weight Change and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Korean Populations: Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging

Background

Obesity is associated with increased mortality as a significant risk factor for chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Several people believe that weight gain is harmful, and weight loss helps maintain health. However, some studies have shown that weight loss, particularly among older adults, is more likely to increase the risk of mortality than weight gain.

Methods

We used data for the cohort of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, which is a nationwide stratified multi-stage sample of adults aged 45 years. The all-cause mortality risk was assessed using the survival status and the number of months of survival calculated from 2006 (baseline year) to 2016. Cox proportional hazard regression were used to study the causal link between weight change and all-cause mortality risk.

Results

The results showed interactive associations between weight loss and mortality among middle-aged and older adults. The hazard ratio was 1.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10–2.40) for the participants aged 45–65 years with weight losses greater than 5 kg and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.29–1.89) for those older than 65 years with weight losses greater than 5 kg. The results for the group with weight gain above 5 kg were not significant. Middle-aged and older men showed an increase in all-cause mortality associated with weight loss of more than 5 kg, but only the older women showed significant results.

Conclusion

This large-scale cohort study in Korea showed a relationship between weight loss and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older individuals.

Association of early adulthood weight and subsequent weight change with cardiovascular diseases: Findings from REACTION study

BACKGROUND

Excessive adiposity in adulthood is positively associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, it is less studied how the risk is separately explained by early adulthood weight and later weight change, especially in Asian ancestries.

METHODS

This study included 121160 participants in a large population-based cohort in China. Body weight at 20 and 40 years of age wase self-reported. Information on CVD history was obtained through standard questionnaires.

RESULTS

The odds ratios (ORs) were 1.20 (95% CI, 1.10-1.31) for coronary heart disease (CHD), 1.74 (95% CI, 1.36-2.22) for myocardial infarction (MI), 1.14 (95% CI, 0.99-1.32) for stroke and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.12-1.31) for total CVD among individuals with early overweight, and became more prominent for early obesity. Meanwhile, A moderate weight gain of 2.5 kg between early adulthood and midlife significantly increased the risk of CHD (OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05-1.32), stroke (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.03-1.38) and total CVD (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04-1.27), and the risk escalated with higher amounts of weight gain. Conversely, a weight loss of 2.5 kg conferred lower risk of CVD compared with a stable weight. In further cross-analysis, participants with early adulthood overweight or obesity and significant weight gain afterwards exhibited the greatest risk of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

High early adulthood BMI and subsequent weight gain had both independent and combined effect on the risk of CVD after midlife. Therefore, weight management should start before early adulthood, and emphasized throughout adulthood for CVD prevention.

Body mass index trajectories during mid to late life and risks of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes: Results from four prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Our understanding of the weight-outcome association mainly comes from single-time body mass index (BMI) measurement. However, data on long-term trajectories of within-person changes in BMI on diverse study outcomes are sparse. Therefore, this study is to determine the associations of individual BMI trajectories and cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

The present analysis was based on data from 4 large prospective cohorts and restricted to participants aged ≥45 years with at least two BMI measurements. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) for each outcome according to different BMI trajectories were calculated in Cox regression models.

FINDINGS

The final sample comprised 29,311 individuals (mean age 58.31 years, and 77.31% were white), with a median 4 BMI measurements used in this study. During a median follow-up of 21.16 years, there were a total of 10,192 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and 11,589 deaths. A U-shaped relation was seen with all study outcomes. Compared with maintaining stable weight, the multivariate adjusted HR for MACE were 1.53 (95%CI 1.40-1.66), 1.26 (95%CI 1.16-1.37) and 1.08 (95%CI 1.02-1.15) respectively for rapid, moderate and slow weight loss; 1.01 (95%CI 0.95-1.07), 1.13 (95%CI 1.05-1.21) and 1.29 (95%CI 1.20-1.40) respectively for slow, moderate and rapid weight gain. Identical patterns of association were observed for all other outcomes. The development of BMI differed markedly between the outcome-free individuals and those who went on to experience adverse events, generally beginning to diverge 10 years before the occurrence of the events.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings may signal an underlying high-risk population and inspire future studies on weight management.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Guangdong Natural Science Foundation.

Weight change during middle age and risk of stroke and coronary heart disease: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The impact of weight changes in middle age on the incidence of cardiovascular disease has not been well elucidated. We investigated whether a 5-year weight change was associated with risk of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) in middle-aged individuals.

METHODS

We analyzed data of 74,928 participants aged 40-69 years who provided responses to the baseline and 5-year follow-up questionnaires in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. Weight change was calculated by subtracting self-reported weight at baseline from that at 5-year follow-up. Stroke and CHD events were confirmed by reviewing hospital records.

RESULTS

During 997,406 person-years of follow-up, we documented 3,975 stroke and 914 CHD events. The multivariable HRs of stroke for losing ≥5 kg compared to stable weight (change ≤2 kg) was 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.37) in men versus 1.33 (1.13-1.57) for losing ≥5 kg and 1.61 (1.36-1.92) for gaining ≥5 kg in women (U-shaped association). These associations did not change after the exclusion of early events. The multivariable HR of CHD for gaining ≥5 kg was 1.22 (0.95-1.58) in men. After exclusion of early events within another 5 years, that positive association became stronger [multivariable HR 1.34 (1.00-1.82)].

CONCLUSIONS

Weight gain during middle age was associated with an increased risk of stroke in women and an increased risk of CHD in men. Weight loss was associated with an increased risk of stroke in both men and women.

Adiposity change and mortality in middle-aged to older Chinese: an 8-year follow-up of the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations of change in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) over an average of 4 years with subsequent mortality risk in middle-aged to older Chinese.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study based on the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

SETTING

Community-based sample.

PARTICIPANTS

17 773 participants (12 956 women and 4817 men) aged 50+ years.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome measures were cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. Causes of death were obtained via record linkage, and coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (tenth revision).

RESULTS

1424 deaths (53.4% women) occurred in the 17 773 participants (mean age 61.2, SD 6.8 years) during an average follow-up of 7.8 (SD=1.5) years, and 97.7% of participants did not have an intention of weight loss . Compared with participants with stable BMI, participants with BMI loss (>5%), but not gain, had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.49, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.71), which was greatest in those who were underweight (HR=2.45, 95% CI 1.31 to 4.59). Similar patterns were found for WC. In contrast, for participants with a BMI of ≥27.5 kg/m², BMI gain, versus stable BMI, was associated with 89% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.89, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.88), 72% higher risk of CVD mortality (HR=1.72, 95% CI 0.80 to 3.72) and 2.27-fold risk of cancer mortality (HR=2.27, 95% CI 1.26 to 4.10).

CONCLUSION

In older people, unintentional BMI/WC loss, especially in those who were underweight was associated with higher mortality risk. However, BMI gain in those with obesity showed excess risks of all-cause and cancer mortality, but not CVD mortality. Frequent monitoring of changes in body size can be used as an early warning for timely clinical investigations and interventions and is important to inform appropriate health management in older Chinese.

Weight change across adulthood in relation to all cause and cause specific mortality: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between weight changes across adulthood and mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988-94 and 1999-2014.

PARTICIPANTS

36 051 people aged 40 years or over with measured body weight and height at baseline and recalled weight at young adulthood (25 years old) and middle adulthood (10 years before baseline).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All cause and cause specific mortality from baseline until 31 December 2015.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 12.3 years, 10 500 deaths occurred. Compared with participants who remained at normal weight, those moving from the non-obese to obese category between young and middle adulthood had a 22% (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.33) and 49% (1.49, 1.21 to 1.83) higher risk of all cause mortality and heart disease mortality, respectively. Changing from obese to non-obese body mass index over this period was not significantly associated with mortality risk. An obese to non-obese weight change pattern from middle to late adulthood was associated with increased risk of all cause mortality (1.30, 1.16 to 1.45) and heart disease mortality (1.48, 1.14 to 1.92), whereas moving from the non-obese to obese category over this period was not significantly associated with mortality risk. Maintaining obesity across adulthood was consistently associated with increased risk of all cause mortality; the hazard ratio was 1.72 (1.52 to 1.95) from young to middle adulthood, 1.61 (1.41 to 1.84) from young to late adulthood, and 1.20 (1.09 to 1.32) from middle to late adulthood. Maximum overweight had a very modest or null association with mortality across adulthood. No significant associations were found between various weight change patterns and cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Stable obesity across adulthood, weight gain from young to middle adulthood, and weight loss from middle to late adulthood were associated with increased risks of mortality. The findings imply that maintaining normal weight across adulthood, especially preventing weight gain in early adulthood, is important for preventing premature deaths in later life.

Impact of weight variability on mortality among Korean men and women: a population based study

The health consequences of weight fluctuation have been controversial and little-studied within Asian populations. We aimed to determine the effect of weight variability on mortality using Korean National Health Insurance Service – National Health Screening Cohort. Weight variability was defined as the average successive variability of body mass index (BMI) of the first (2002 and 2003), second (2004 and 2005), and third (2006 and 2007) health examinations. Then, we used Cox regression models to estimate the effect of weight variability on mortality. Compared to participants within the first quintile (lowest) of weight variability, those within the fifth quintile (highest) had increased the risk of death from all causes (hazard ratio, HR 1.33, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.26–1.41), cardiovascular disease (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12–1.53), cancer (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02–1.22), and other causes (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.45–1.73). The risk-increasing effect of weight variability on mortality was preserved after excluding past and current smokers as well as those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease or cancer. In conclusion, high weight variability may lead to elevated risk of death even among healthy never smokers. Therefore, maintaining a steady weight should be recommended to benefit from reduced risk of death.