Stage 1 hypertension, but not elevated blood pressure, predicts 10-year fatal and non-fatal CVD events in healthy adults: the ATTICA Study

Prognosis of Systolic Pressure 130 to 139 According to Risk. A Prospective Cohort Study Between 1992 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend pharmacological treatment for systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 130 to 139 mm Hg in secondary prevention. However, uncertainty persists in primary prevention in low cardiovascular risk patients (CVR).

METHODS

Cohort study representative of the general population of Albacete/Southeast Spain. We examined 1029 participants with untreated blood pressure and free of cardiovascular disease, followed-up during 1992 to 2019. Cox regression modeled the association of SBP with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality (outcome-1) and cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality (outcome-2).

RESULTS

Participants' mean age was 44.8 years (53.8%, women; 77.1% at low-CVR); 20.3% had SBP 120 to 129; 13.0% 130 to 139 at low-CVR and 3.4% at high-CVR; and 27.4% ≥140 mm Hg. After a 25.7-year median follow-up, 218 outcome-1 and 302 outcome-2 cases occurred. Unadjusted hazard ratios of outcome-1 for these increasing SBP categories (versus <120) were 2.72, 2.27, 11.54, and 7.52, respectively; and 2.69, 2.32, 10.55, and 7.34 for outcome-2 (all P<0.01). After adjustment for other risk factors, hazard ratio (95% CI) of outcome-1 were 1.49 (0.91-2.44), 1.65 (0.94-2.91, P=0.08), 1.36 (0.72-2.57), and 1.82 (1.15-2.88), respectively, and 1.39 (0.91-2.11), 1.69 (1.05-2.73), 1.09 (0.63-1.88), and 1.64 (1.11-2.41) for outcome-2. Compared with 130 to 139 at low-CVR, hazard ratio for 130 to 139 at high-CVR was 4.85 for outcome-1 (P<0.001) and 4.43 for outcome-2 (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this primary prevention population of relatively young average age, untreated SBP of 130 to 139 mm Hg at low-CVR had long-term prognostic value and might benefit from stricter SBP targets. High-CVR patients had nonsignificant higher risk (limited sample size) but 4-fold greater risk when compared with low-CVR. Overall, results indicate the importance of risk stratification, supporting risk-based decision-making.

Association of long-term exposure to ambient particulate pollution with stage 1 hypertension defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guideline and cardiovascular disease: The CHCN-BTH cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the effects of ambient air pollution on new stage 1 hypertension defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guideline remains sparse.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association of long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 with stage 1 hypertension and to explore the mediating and modifying effects of PM_2.5 on cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

A total of 32,135 participants aged 18-80 years were recruited in 2017. The three-year (2014-2016) average PM_2.5 concentrations were assessed by a spatial statistical model. Blood pressure (BP) was divided into four categories according to the 2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guideline: normal BP (SBP<120 mmHg and DBP<80 mmHg), elevated BP (SBP 120-129 mmHg and DBP<80 mmHg), stage 1 hypertension (SBP 130-139 mmHg or DBP 80-89 mmHg), and stage 2 hypertension (SBP≥140 mmHg or DBP≥90 mmHg or taking antihypertensive medications). The associations of PM_2.5 with BP categories were estimated by two-level generalized linear mixed models. Analyses stratified by age, mediation and interaction analyses of PM_2.5 and stage 1 hypertension with CVD were performed.

RESULTS

We detected a positive significant association between long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and stage 1 hypertension. Compared to normal BP, the OR was 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.08) per 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5. The association was stronger than that of elevated BP but weaker than that of stage 2 hypertension. Stage 1 hypertension only partially mediated the association between PM_2.5 and CVD, and the mediation proportions ranged from 1.55% to 11.00%. However, it modified the association between PM_2.5 and CVD, which was greater in participants with stage 1 hypertension (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.43, 1.93) than in participants with normal BP (OR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.57), with P_interaction<0.001. In the analysis stratified by age, the above associations were age-specific, and significant associations were only observed in the young and middle-aged (<60 years) groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 was significantly associated with stage 1 hypertension. This earlier stage of hypertension may be a trigger BP range for adverse effects of air pollution in the development of hypertension and CVD, especially in young and middle-aged individuals.

The 2017 ACC/AHA stage 1 hypertension is associated with arterial stiffness: a prospective analysis

Objective: To examine the association between stage 1 hypertension defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline and risk of developing arterial stiffness.

Methods: During 2010-2015, 4595 adults aged ≥40 years without cardiovascular disease were followed up for a median of 4.3 years. BP levels at baseline were categorized into normal, elevated, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension. The development of arterial stiffness was defined as a normal brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (ba-PWV) at baseline and an increased ba-PWV at follow-up.

Results: Compared with participants with normal BP, participants with stage 1 hypertension had a 1.48-fold increased risk of developing arterial stiffness [odds ratio (OR) =2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.59-3.85] after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. The association was more evident in adults aged 40-59 years (OR =4.08; 95% CI =2.06-8.08) than that in those aged ≥60 years (OR =1.47; 95% CI =0.81-2.67). A systolic BP 130~139 mmHg was significantly associated with arterial stiffness independent of diastolic BP (OR =2.90; 95% CI =1.86-4.52). Stage 1 hypertension either at baseline or at follow-up was associated with increased risks compared with normal BP at both baseline and follow-up.

Conclusions: The 2017 ACC/AHA stage 1 hypertension was significantly associated with higher risks of arterial stiffness.

Stage 1 hypertension by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association hypertension guidelines and risk of cardiovascular disease events: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population etiologic fraction of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies reported an inconsistent association between stage 1 hypertension (SBP 130-139 mmHg or DBP 80-89 mmHg) defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association hypertension guidelines and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. In addition, the proportion of CVD events that could be prevented with effective control of stage 1 hypertension is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between stage 1 hypertension and CVD events and estimate the population etiologic fraction.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases were searched from 1 January 2017 to 22 September 2019. Normal BP was considered SBP less than 120 mmHg and DBP less than 80 mmHg. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 11 articles (16 studies including 3 212 447 participants and 65 945 events) in the analysis. Risk of CVD events was increased with stage 1 hypertension versus normal BP (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI 1.28-1.49). On subgroup analyses, stage 1 hypertension was associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) (hazard ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.20-1.41), stroke (1.39, 1.27-1.52), CVD morbidity (1.42, 1.32-1.53), and CVD mortality (1.34, 1.05-1.71). The population etiologic fraction for the association of CVD events, CHD, stroke, CVD morbidity, and CVD mortality with stage 1 hypertension was 12.90, 10.48, 12.71, 14.03, and 11.69%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Stage 1 hypertension is associated with CVD events, CVD morbidity, CVD mortality, CHD, and stroke. Effective control of stage 1 hypertension could prevent more than 10% of CVD events.

The Population-Attributable Fraction for Premature Mortality Due to Cardiovascular Disease Associated With Stage 1 and 2 Hypertension Among Japanese

BACKGROUND

Our aim was to assess how the population-attributable fraction (PAF) for premature mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with hypertension changes if blood pressure (BP) thresholds for hypertension were lowered from systolic/diastolic BP ≥140/90 mm Hg to ≥130/80 mm Hg, as defined using the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline.

METHODS

Analyses were conducted using a database of participants who underwent a national health checkup examination started in 2008 in Japan (n = 510,238; mean age, 59.6 ± 8.1 years; 42% men). Each participant was categorized as having normal or elevated BP, or stage 1 or 2 hypertension according to the guideline. Data on premature mortality due to CVD occurring before age 70 years were available through March 2015.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 3.4 years, 739 deaths from CVD occurred. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for premature CVD mortality for elevated BP, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension vs. normal BP were 1.02 (95% confidence interval, 0.72, 1.44), 1.33 (1.02, 1.75), and 2.41 (1.90, 3.05), respectively. The PAF associated with stage 1 and 2 hypertension was 4.4% and 39.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In the current nationwide study of Japanese adults, stage 1 and 2 hypertension were associated with an increased risk for premature CVD mortality. The PAF for premature CVD mortality associated with hypertension increased by 4.4% if BP thresholds for hypertension were lowered from systolic/diastolic BP ≥140/90 to ≥130/80 mm Hg.

Do the 2017 blood pressure cut-offs improve 10-year cardiovascular disease mortality risk prediction?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

High blood pressure (BP) is a significant predictor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline reclassified the BP categories; however, its impact on CVD mortality prediction is still unclear. Our study aimed to examine whether the application of new BP cut-offs could improve 10-year CVD mortality prediction among US adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This population-based cohort study linked data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994 and 1999-2004) and National Death Index (up to December 31, 2015). We constructed original and modified, using new BP cut-offs, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation models to predict 10-year CVD mortality. We measured model discrimination and calibration using the Harrell's C statistic and calibration plots, respectively. We calculated the net reclassification index to evaluate the reclassification. In addition, we compared the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values (PVs), and likelihood ratios (LRs). Among 28,964 adults (aged ≥ 20 years), 1493 have died of CVD within ten years of follow-up. The modified models had improvements in calibration and reclassification instead of discrimination compared to the original models. The modified models have higher sensitivity and negative PV; however, they have lower specificity, positive PV, positive LR, and negative LR.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified models failed to improve the discrimination of 10-year CVD mortality. However, they could increase the calibration and reclassification and capture more participants with high CVD risk. More studies are needed on the potential use of the new BP cut-offs in the CVD primary prevention.