A prospective health economic evaluation to determine the productivity loss due to premature mortality from oral cancer in India

INTRODUCTION

India contributes two-thirds of the global mortality due to oral cancer and has a younger population at risk. The societal costs of this premature mortality are barely discussed.

METHODS

Using the human capital approach, we aimed to estimate the productivity lost due to premature mortality, valued using individual socioeconomic data, related to oral cancer in India. A bottom-up approach was used to prospectively collect data of 100 consecutive patients with oral cancer treated between 2019 and 2020, with a follow-up of 36 months.

RESULTS

The disease-specific survival for early and advanced stage was 85% and 70%, with a median age of 47 years. With 671 years lost prematurely, the loss of productivity was $41 900/early and $96 044/advanced stage. Based on population level rates, the total cost of premature mortality was $5.6 billion, representing 0.18% of GDP.

CONCLUSION

India needs to implement tailored strategies to reduce the economic burden from premature mortality.

History of multifetal gestation and long-term maternal mortality

BACKGROUND

Multifetal gestation could be associated with higher long-term maternal mortality because it increases the risk of pregnancy complications such as preeclampsia and preterm birth, which are in turn linked to postpartum cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVES

We examined whether spontaneously conceived multifetal versus singleton gestation was associated with long-term maternal mortality in a racially diverse U.S.

COHORT

METHODS

We ascertained vital status as of 2016 via linkage to the National Death Index and Social Security Death Master File of 44,174 mothers from the Collaborative Perinatal Project (CPP; 1959-1966). Cox proportional hazards models with maternal age as the time scale assessed associations between history of spontaneous multifetal gestation (in the last CPP observed pregnancy or prior pregnancy) and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, adjusted for demographics, smoking status, and preexisting medical conditions. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality over the study period and until age 50, 60, and 70 years (premature mortality).

RESULTS

Of eligible participants, 1672 (3.8%) had a history of multifetal gestation. Participants with versus without a history of multifetal gestation were older, more likely to have a preexisting condition, and more likely to smoke. By 2016, 51% of participants with and 38% of participants without a history of multifetal gestation had died (unadjusted all-cause HR 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07, 1.23). After adjustment for smoking and preexisting conditions, a history of multifetal gestation was not associated with all-cause (adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93, 1.08) or cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.87, 1.11) over the study period. However, history of multifetal gestation was associated with an 11% lower risk of premature all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82, 0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort with over 50 years of follow-up, history of multifetal gestation was not associated with all-cause mortality, but may be associated with a lower risk of premature mortality.

Chronic constipation in people with intellectual disabilities in the community: cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

One-third to half of people with intellectual disabilities suffer from chronic constipation (defined as two or fewer bowel movements weekly or taking regular laxatives three or more times weekly), a cause of significant morbidity and premature mortality. Research on risk factors associated with constipation is limited.

AIMS

To enumerate risk factors associated with constipation in this population.

METHOD

A questionnaire was developed on possible risk factors for constipation. The questionnaire was sent to carers of people with intellectual disabilities on the case-loads of four specialist intellectual disability services in England. Data analysis focused on descriptively summarising responses and comparing those reported with and without constipation.

RESULTS

Of the 181 people with intellectual disabilities whose carers returned the questionnaire, 42% reported chronic constipation. Constipation was significantly associated with more severe intellectual disability, dysphagia, cerebral palsy, poor mobility, polypharmacy including antipsychotics and antiseizure medication, and the need for greater toileting support. There were no associations with age or gender.

CONCLUSIONS

People with intellectual disabilities may be more vulnerable to chronic constipation if they are more severely intellectually disabled. The associations of constipation with dysphagia, cerebral palsy, poor mobility and the need for greater toileting support suggests people with intellectual disabilities with significant physical disabilities are more at risk. People with the above disabilities need closer monitoring of their bowel health. Reducing medication to the minimum necessary may reduce the risk of constipation and is a modifiable risk factor that it is important to monitor. By screening patients using the constipation questionnaire, individualised bowel care plans could be implemented.

Trends in Premature Mortality from Acute Myocardial Infarction in American Indians/Alaska Natives in the United States from 1999 to 2020

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) groups. They are disproportionately found to have a higher rate of premature myocardial infarction (MI). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research were queried to identify premature MI deaths (female <65 years and male <55 years) occurring within the United States between 1999 and 2020. We investigated proportionate mortality trends related to premature MI in AI/ANs stratified by gender. Deaths attributed to acute MI (AMI) were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes I21 to I22. We compared the proportional mortality rate because of premature MI with that of a non-AI/AN racial group, which comprised all other races (Blacks, Whites, and Asian/Pacific Islander populations). In AI/ANs, we analyzed a total of 14,055 AMI deaths, of which 3,211 were premature MI deaths corresponding to a proportionate mortality rate of 22.8% (male 20.8%, female 26.2%). The non-AI/AN population had a lower proportionate mortality of 14.8% (male 13.7%, female 16%), p <0.01). On trend analysis, there was no significant improvement over time in the proportionate mortality of AI/ANs (19.8% in 1999 to 21.7% in 2020, p = 0.09). Upon comparison of gender, proportionate mortality of premature MI in women showed a statistically nonsignificant increase from 21.6% in 1999 to 27.3% in 2020 [average annual percent change of 0.7, p = 0.06)]. However, men had a statistically significant decrease in proportionate mortality of premature MI from 18.5% in 1999 to 18.2% in 2020 [average annual percent change of -0.8, p = 0.01)]. AI/ANs have an alarmingly higher rate of proportionate mortality of premature MI than that of other races, with no improvement in the proportionate mortality rates over 20 years, despite an overall downtrend in AMI mortality. Further research to address the reasons for the lack of improvement in premature MI is needed to improve outcomes in this patient population.

Specific analysis of PM2.5-attributed disease burden in typical areas of Northwest China

Background

Frequent air pollution events in Northwest China pose a serious threat to human health. However, there is a lack of specific differences assessment in PM2.5-related disease burden. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the PM2.5-related premature deaths and health economic losses in this typical northwest region, taking into account disease-specific, age-specific, and region-specific factors.

Methods

We utilized the WRF-Chem model to simulate and analyze the characteristics and exposure levels of PM2.5 pollution in Gansu Province, a typical region of Northwest China. Subsequently, we estimated the premature mortality and health economic losses associated with PM2.5 by combining the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) and the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL).

Results

The results suggested that the PM2.5 concentrations in Gansu Province in 2019 varied spatially, with a decrease from north to south. The number of non-accidental deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution was estimated to be 14,224 (95% CI: 11,716-16,689), accounting for 8.6% of the total number of deaths. The PM2.5-related health economic loss amounted to 28.66 (95% CI: 23.61-33.63) billion yuan, equivalent to 3.3% of the regional gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke were the leading causes of PM2.5-attributed deaths, contributing to 50.6% of the total. Older adult individuals aged 60 and above accounted for over 80% of all age-related disease deaths. Lanzhou had a higher number of attributable deaths and health economic losses compared to other regions. Although the number of PM2.5-attributed deaths was lower in the Hexi Corridor region, the per capita health economic loss was higher.

Conclusion

Gansu Province exhibits distinct regional characteristics in terms of PM2.5 pollution as well as disease- and age-specific health burdens. This highlights the significance of implementing tailored measures that are specific to local conditions to mitigate the health risks and economic ramifications associated with PM2.5 pollution.

Remnant cholesterol and risk of premature mortality: An analysis from a nationwide prospective cohort study

AIMS

To explore the relationship between remnant cholesterol (RC) and risk of premature mortality as well as life expectancy in the general population.

METHODS

We included a total of 428,804 participants from the UK Biobank for analyses. Equivalent population percentiles approach based on the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) cut-off points was performed to categorize participants into three RC groups: low (with a mean RC of 0.34 mmol/L), moderate (0.53 mmol/L), and high (1.02 mmol/L). We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the relationship between RC groups and risk of premature mortality (defined as death before age 75 years). Life table methods were used to estimate life expectancy by RC groups.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years (Q1 - Q3: 11.0 - 13.0), there were 23,693 all-cause premature deaths documented with an incidence of 4.83 events per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.77 - 4.89). Compared with low RC group, the moderate RC group was associated with a 9% increased risk of all-cause premature mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05 - 1.14), while the high RC group had an 11% higher risk (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.07 - 1.16). At the age of 50 years, high RC group was associated with an average 2.2 lower years of life expectancy for females, and an average 0.1 lower years of life expectancy for males when compared to their counterparts in low RC group.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated RC was significantly related to increased risk of premature mortality and reduced life expectancy. Premature death in the general population would benefit from measurement to aid risk stratification and proactive management of RC to improved cardiovascular risk prevention efforts.

[Health Benefit Assessment of Coal-to-electricity Policy on PM2.5 Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region]

To accurately assess the health benefits of the coal-to-electricity policy during the heating period in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) Region, the premature deaths caused by PM2.5 before and after the implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy during the heating period in each district and county of the BTH Region were estimated, and the corresponding health loss values were calculated using the willingness to pay method. The results showed that the implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy in the BTH Region brought 1745 cases(95% CI:1443-1907) of health benefits and 2.38 billion yuan(95% CI:1.45-3.06) in economic benefits. In Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei there were 495 cases(95% CI:436-554), 296 cases(95% CI:238-354), and 954 cases(95% CI:693-1076) of health benefits, respectively. The economic benefits were 0.35 billion yuan(95% CI:0.30-0.39), 0.33 billion yuan(95% CI:0.27-0.40), and 1.70 billion yuan(95% CI:0.88-2.28), respectively, accounting for 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.04% of GDP in each region. The number of premature deaths due to COPD, LC, ALRI, IHD, and STROKE decreased by 187 cases(95% CI:165-224), 318 cases(95% CI:178-458), 193 cases(95% CI:115-204), 506 cases(95% CI:232-780), and 542 cases(95% CI:463-621), respectively. Areas with relatively high environmental PM2.5 concentrations and concentrated population-intensive pollution emissions can achieve significant health and economic benefits.

Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Risk of Stroke Types: A Prospective Cohort Study of 500 000 Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and permanent disability in China, with large and unexplained geographic variations in rates of different stroke types. Chronic hepatitis B virus infection is prevalent among Chinese adults and may play a role in stroke cause.

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank included >500 000 adults aged 30 to 79 years who were recruited from 10 (5 urban and 5 rural) geographically diverse areas of China from 2004 to 2008, with determination of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positivity at baseline. During 11 years of follow-up, a total of 59 117 incident stroke cases occurred, including 11 318 intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), 49 971 ischemic stroke, 995 subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3036 other/unspecified stroke. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of stroke types associated with HBsAg positivity. In a subset of 17 833 participants, liver enzymes and lipids levels were measured and compared by HBsAg status.

RESULTS

Overall, 3.0% of participants were positive for HBsAg. HBsAg positivity was associated with an increased risk of ICH (adjusted HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16-1.44]), similarly for fatal (n=5982; adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.16-1.59]) and nonfatal (n=5336; adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.44]) ICH. There were no significant associations of HBsAg positivity with risks of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.92-1.03]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (adjusted HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.57-1.33]), or other/unspecified stroke (adjusted HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.89-1.42]). Compared with HBsAg-negative counterparts, HBsAg-positive individuals had lower lipid and albumin levels and higher liver enzyme levels. After adjustment for liver enzymes and albumin, the association with ICH from HBsAg positivity attenuated to 1.15 (0.90-1.48), suggesting possible mediation by abnormal liver function.

CONCLUSIONS

Among Chinese adults, chronic hepatitis B virus infection is associated with an increased risk of ICH but not other stroke types, which may be mediated through liver dysfunction and altered lipid metabolism.

Trends in cause-specific mortality: deaths of despair in Spain, 1980-2019

BACKGROUND

Research from various countries has shown increases in alcohol- and drug-related deaths and suicide, known as 'deaths of despair' over recent decades, particularly among low-educated middle-aged individuals. However, little is known about trends in death-of-despair causes in Spain. Therefore, we aim to descriptively examine this among 25-64-year-olds from 1980 to 2019 and by educational attainment for the years 2017-19.

METHODS

We obtained mortality and population data from the National Institute of Statistics to estimate age-standardized mortality rates and assess educational inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII).

RESULTS

Deaths of despair as a share of total mortality slightly increased from 2000 onwards, particularly among 25-64-year-old men (from 9 to 10%). Only alcohol-related mortality declined relatively more since 1980 compared with all-cause mortality. Regarding educational differences, low-educated men presented higher mortality rates in all death-of-despair causes (alcohol-related: RII 3.54 (95% CI: 2.21-5.66); drug-related: RII 3.49 (95% CI: 1.80-6.77); suicide: RII 1.97 (95% CI: 1.49-2.61)). Women noteworthy differences were only observed for alcohol-related (RII 3.50 (95% CI: 2.13-5.75)).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest an increasing proportion of deaths of despair among 25-64-year-olds since 2000, particularly among men. Public health policies are needed to reduce and prevent these premature and preventable causes of mortality.

Evidence of the adverse effects of air pollution on the population's health in Spain: analysis of the economic costs of premature deaths

Exposure to ambient air pollution increases mortality and morbidity, leading disabilities, and premature deaths. Air pollution has been identified as a leading cause of global disease burden, especially in low- and middle-income countries in 2015 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study, 2015). This study explores the relation between mortality rates and particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the 50 Spanish regions for the period 2002-2017. Moreover, we estimated the premature deaths due to PM in Spain according to welfare and production losses in 2017. Random-effects models were developed to evaluate the relation between mortality rates and PM concentrations. The economic cost of premature deaths was assessed using the Willingness to Pay approach to quantify welfare losses and the Human Capital method to estimate production losses. PM10 concentrations are positively related to mortality due to respiratory diseases and stroke. Based on 10,342 premature deaths in 2017, losses in welfare amount to EUR 36,227 million (3.1% of Spanish GDP). The economic value of current and future production losses reached EUR 229 million (0.02% of GDP). From a social perspective, air pollution is a public health concern that greatly impacts health and quality of life. Results highlight the need to implement or strengthen regulatory, fiscal, and health public policies to substantially benefit the population's health by reducing their exposure to air pollution.

Meeting the challenges of rising premature mortality in people with severe mental illness

People with severe mental illness are 4.5 times more likely to die prematurely than the general UK population. We review the drivers of poorer physical health across mental health conditions and propose some practical approaches to addressing this in the clinic.

Inequalities in premature mortality from ischaemic heart disease in the WHO European region

OBJECTIVES

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of premature mortality. Our aim was to analyse standardised premature mortality rates from IHD by geographical groups in the age group 45-59 years.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, quantitative analysis of age-standardized mortality rates from IHD between 1990-2014 per 100,000 population in Western European (WE: N = 17), Eastern European countries (EE: N = 10), and countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU: N = 15) within the European Region of the World Health Organisation (WHO) based on data retrieved from the WHO European Mortality Database. Descriptive statistics, time series analysis and statistical tests were used for the analyses (ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis test, Mann-Whitney test, paired t-test).

RESULTS

On average, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) from IHD per 100,000 population were the lowest in WE (men 1990: 143.67, 2014: 50.29; women 1990: 29.06, 2014: 9.89), and the highest in fSU (men 1990: 358.69, 2014: 253.25; women 1990: 99.78, 2014: 57.85). Between 1990 and 2014, all three groups experienced significant decrease in ASDR both in men and women (fSU: -29.39%, -42.02%; EE: -49.41%, -50.57%; WE: -64.99%, -65.97%, respectively) (p < 0.05). Between 1990 and 2004, ASDR decreased in WE in both sexes (p < 0.001), in EE among males (p = 0.032). Between 2004 and 2014, ASDR from IHD decreased significantly in both sexes in fSU and WE, in EE only among women (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

During the whole period analysed, ischaemic heart disease mortality significantly decreased in both sexes in all the groups.

Understanding Despair: The Role of Physical Pain

In the United States, mortality due to alcohol, opioid overdose, and suicide has increased dramatically in the last decades. These deaths of despair have been the focus of recent and fast-growing literature. Yet little is known about the factors that are involved in despair. This article moves this area of research forward by highlighting the role that physical pain plays in the deaths of despair. This piece critically analyses the link between physical pain, the psychological states that precede pain, and the premature mortality that follows physical pain as well as the bidirectional relationships among these aspects.

Changes in the Level of Premature Mortality in the Polish Population Due to Selected Groups of Cardiovascular Diseases before and during the Pandemic of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

In the years 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted Poland's health care system and caused a high number of excess deaths. After nearly 30 years of continuous dynamic increase in the life expectancy of the Polish population and a decrease in premature mortality that led to a reduction in the health gap between Poland and Western European countries, regrettably, a decline in life expectancy was recorded. For males, the decline amounted to 2.3 years and, for females, to 2.1 years.

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess changes in the level of premature mortality due to selected cardiovascular diseases in Poland before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHOD

Time trends of deaths of patients under the age of 65 due to ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and aortic aneurysm were analyzed by gender and age groups. The joinpoint model was used in determining time trends.

RESULTS

Premature mortality due to all of the cardiovascular diseases analyzed had been declining steadily by about 5% per year since 2008. However, at the end of the second decade of the 21st century, a significant change in the dynamics of the trend was observed, particularly with regard to deaths from ischemic heart disease, which since 2018 caused premature mortality increases of 10% per year in the female population. In the male population, an increase of nearly 20% per year has been observed since 2019. The changes also affected premature mortality due to cerebrovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

After nearly three decades of significant decline in premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Poland, there was a reversal in the trend, in particular as regards ischemic heart disease. The unfavorable changes intensified in the subsequent two years. The simultaneous increase in the number of cardiovascular incidents ending in death and the decline in access to prompt diagnosis and effective treatment may explain the unfavorable changes in the deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and the increase in premature mortality due to cardiovascular disease.

The Epidemiologic Transition in French Guiana: Secular Trends and Setbacks, and Comparisons with Continental France and South American Countries

There are great variations between population subgroups, notably in poorer countries, leading to substantial inconsistencies with those predicted by the classical epidemiologic transition theory. In this context, using public data, we aimed to determine how the singular case of French Guiana fit and transitioned in the epidemiologic transition framework. The data show a gradual decline in infant mortality to values above 8 per 1000 live births. Premature mortality rates were greater but declined more rapidly in French Guiana than in mainland France until 2017 when they reascended in a context of political turmoil followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and strong reluctance to get vaccinated. Although infections were a more frequent cause of death in French Guiana, there is a marked decline and circulatory and metabolic causes are major causes of premature death. Fertility rates remain high (>3 live births per woman), and the age structure of the population is still pyramid-shaped. The singularities of French Guiana (rich country, universal health system, widespread poverty) explain why its transition does not fit neatly within the usual stages of transition. Beyond gradual improvements in secular trends, the data also suggest that political turmoil and fake news may have detrimentally affected mortality in French Guiana and reversed improving trends.

[Life expectancy of mesocephalic, dolichocephalic and brachycephalic dog breeds in Switzerland]

INTRODUCTION

Lifespan and time of death of dogs died in Switzerland between 2016 and 2020 were evaluated in order to increase the awareness of the public to animal welfare-related consequences of extreme brachycephalic breeding and to clarify the torture breeding problem of dogs suffering from brachycephalic obstructive airway syndrome (BOAS). Skull shape, body size, country of origin and altitude of the registered place of residence at the time of death were analysed in a set of anonymized data from the national animal database Amicus as potential factors influencing the life expectancy. Death rate during summer months and the altitude of the reported place of residence at death were analysed in relation to the skull shape to demonstrate the heat intolerance of brachycephalic dog breeds. The final dataset included 137 469 dogs. The average age of death of the study population was 11,8 years, mixed breeds reaching a higher average age of 12,4 years than purebred dogs with 11,5 years. Bodyweight classification, skull shape and the origin of the dogs had a significant effect on the average lifespan. Giant breeds reached with 9,0 years the lowest mean age compared to the other bodyweight categories. The mean life expectancy of brachycephalic dogs was 9,8 years, i.e., 2,1 and 1,7 years less than mesocephalic and dolichocephalic dogs, respectively. Brachycephalic dogs and dogs imported from abroad showed increased mortality at a young age.

Prognosis Factors of Patients Undergoing Renal Replacement Therapy

BACKGROUND

Survival in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on renal replacement therapy (RRT) is less than that of the general population of the same age, and depends on patient factors, the medical care received, and the type of RRT used. The objective of this study is to analyze the factors associated with survival in patients undergoing RRT.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of adult patients with an incident of ESKD on RRT in Andalusia from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2018. Patient characteristics, nephrological care received, and survival from the beginning of RRT were evaluated. A survival model for the patient was developed according to the variables studied.

RESULTS

A total of 11,551 patients were included. Median survival was 6.8 years (95% CI (6.6; 7.0)). After starting RRT, survival at one year and five years was 88.7% (95% CI (88.1; 89.3)) and 59.4% (95% CI (58.4; 60.4)), respectively. Age, initial comorbidity, diabetic nephropathy, and a venous catheter were independent risk factors. However, non-urgent initiation of RRT and follow-up in consultations for more than six months had a protective effect. It was identified that renal transplantation (RT) was the most influential independent factor in patient survival, with a risk ratio of 0.13 (95% CI (0.11; 0.14)).

CONCLUSIONS

The receiving of a kidney transplant was the most beneficial modifiable factor in the survival of incident patients on RRT. We consider that the mortality of the renal replacement treatment should be adjusted, taking into account both modifiable and nonmodifiable factors to achieve a more precise and comparable interpretation.

Association between Life's Essential 8 score and risk of premature mortality in people with and without type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study

AIMS

To evaluate the association of cardiovascular health (CVH), measured by Life's Essential 8 score, with the risk of premature mortality and to determine the patterns of CVH-related differences in life expectancy among people with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective study included 309,789 participants (age 56.6 ± 8.1 years; 46% men) enroled in the UK Biobank. The Life's Essential 8 composite measure consists of four health behaviours (diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, and sleep) and four health factors (BMI, non-HDL cholesterol, blood glucose, and blood pressure), and the maximum CVH score was 100 points. CVH was categorised into low, moderate, and high groups. Premature death was defined as death before the age of 75. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and life expectancy was estimated.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 13,683 cases of premature death were documented. Compared to participants with low CVH, the multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of premature death were 0.59 (0.56-0.62) and 0.42 (0.39-0.45) for the moderate and high CVH groups, respectively. This association was stronger in participants with T2D compared with those without T2D. At the age of 50 years, compared to low CVH groups, high CVH was associated with a gain of 9.79 (9.70-9.87) and 5.58 (5.48-5.67) additional life years for men with and without T2D, respectively. The corresponding life gain for women with and without T2D was 24.21 (24.13-24.27) and 10.18 (10.10-10.27), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintaining an ideal Life's Essential 8 score may provide more benefits for people with T2D than for those without T2D, including a lower risk of premature death and an increased lifespan.

Projection of Premature Cancer Mortality in Hunan, China, Through 2030: Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one-third. Although previous modeling studies have predicted premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, the predictions for cancer and its subcategories are less well understood in China.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to project premature cancer mortality of 10 leading cancers in Hunan Province, China, based on various scenarios of risk factor control so as to establish the priority for future interventions.

METHODS

We used data collected between 2009 and 2017 from the Hunan cancer registry annual report as empirical data for projections. The population-attributable fraction was used to disaggregate cancer deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to 10 risk factors: smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, diabetes, physical inactivity, low vegetable and fruit intake, high red meat intake, high salt intake, and high ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels. The unattributable deaths and the risk factors in the baseline scenario were projected using the proportional change model, assuming constant annual change rates through 2030. The comparative risk assessment theory was used in simulated scenarios to reflect how premature mortality would be affected if the targets for risk factor control were achieved by 2030.

RESULTS

The cancer burden in Hunan significantly increased during 2009-2017. If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from cancers in 2030 would increase to 97,787 in Hunan Province, and the premature mortality (9.74%) would be 44.47% higher than that in 2013 (6.74%). In the combined scenario where all risk factor control targets were achieved, 14.41% of premature cancer mortality among those aged 30-70 years would be avoided compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. Reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, high BMI, ambient PM2.5 levels, and insufficient fruit intake played relatively important roles in decreasing cancer premature mortality. However, the one-third reduction goal would not be achieved for most cancers except gastric cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing targets on cancer-related risk factors may have important roles in cancer prevention and control. However, they are not sufficient to achieve the one-third reduction goal in premature cancer mortality in Hunan Province. More aggressive risk control targets should be adopted based on local conditions.

Trends in premature mortality from diabetes mellitus in Costa Rica in the period 2000-2020

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the temporal trends of premature mortality from diabetes in Costa Rica in the period 2000-2020, at a national level and by province, and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on diabetes mortality during the year 2020.

METHODS

We studied the temporal trends of mortality from diabetes in Costa Rica in the period between 2000 and 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each year, sex and province.

RESULTS

We analyzed the data of 17,968 deceased persons. The mean age was 72.5 years (range 1 to 109 years), and 51.5% of the population (n = 9253) was younger than 75 years. In both men and women, we observed a significant decrease in mortality from 2000 to 2014, followed by the opposite trend from 2014 to 2020, with average yearly increases of 13.9% in men and 11.6% in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Premature mortality from diabetes has been growing from 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic changed the mortality pattern, increasing premature diabetes deaths in Costa Rica in 2020.

Premature mortality of people with severe mental illness: a renewed focus for a new era

This perspective article applies public health principles to improve the physical health of selected populations with mental disorders. Two preventable adverse outcomes, poorer physical health and premature mortality, are described across mental disorders. Evidence of the lifetime effects of adverse childhood experiences and inequalities is presented: these are the 'causes of the causes'. Seven drivers of physical disorders are illustrated that drive preventable deaths and as doctors, psychiatrists must lead from the front to reverse rising mortality. Evidence supports universal and selective interventions and even the most difficult challenges such as weight gain and opioid misuse are an opportunity for psychiatry to engage with individual patients and their organisations, public health colleagues, health systems and beyond. Interventions complement and do not replace existing clinical practices that reduce self-harm and prevent suicide. Mental health teams already do most of the work in this arena, and the case is made to refocus on physical health with task sharing. The top 10 recommendations within a personalised medicine framework are listed in this paper as a starting point.

Characteristics, health risks, and premature mortality attributable to ambient air pollutants in four functional areas in Jining, China

Air pollution is one of the leading causes for global deaths and understanding pollutant emission sources is key to successful mitigation policies. Air quality data in the urban, suburban, industrial, and rural areas (UA, SA, IA, and RA) of Jining, Shandong Province in China, were collected to compare the characteristics and associated health risks. The average concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, and CO show differences of -3.87, -16.67, -19.24, -15.74, and -8.37% between 2017 and 2018. On the contrary, O₃ concentrations increased by 4.50%. The four functional areas exhibited the same seasonal variations and diurnal patterns in air pollutants, with the highest exposure excess risks (ERs) resulting from O₃. More frequent ER days occurred within the 25-30°C, but much larger ERs are found within the 0-5°C temperature range, attributed to higher O₃ pollution in summer and more severe PM pollution in winter. The premature deaths attributable to six air pollutants can be calculated in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Investigations on the potential source show that the ER of O₃ (r of 0.86) had the tightest association with the total ER. The bivariate polar plots indicated that the highest health-based air quality index (HAQI) in IA influences the HAQI in UA and SA by pollution transport, and thus can be regarded as the major pollutant emission source in Jining. The above results indicate that urgent measures should be taken to reduce O₃ pollution taking into account the characteristics of the prevalent ozone formation regime, especially in IA in Jining.

Revisiting the Calculation for a Novel Measure of Average Lifespan Shortened: Real-World Examples From Cervical and Ovarian Cancers in Alberta, Canada, 2000 - 2020

In this technical note, we primarily demonstrate the computation of confidence limits for a novel measure of average lifespan shortened (ALSS). We identified women who had died from cervical and ovarian cancer between 2000 and 2020 from the Alberta cancer registry. Years of life lost (YLL) was calculated using the national life tables of Canada. We estimated the ALSS as a ratio of YLL in relation to the expected lifespan. We computed the confidence limits of the measure using various approaches, including the normal distribution, gamma distribution, and bootstrap method. The new ALSS measure shows a modest gain in lifespan of women, particularly women with ovarian cancer, over the study period.

Adverse Clinical Outcomes Attributable to Socioeconomic and Ethnic Disparities Among People with Type 2 Diabetes in New Zealand Between 1994-2018: A Multiple Linked Cohort Study

Purpose

The study aimed to examine the separate population-level contributions of the ethnic and socioeconomic disparities among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and residence in New Zealand (NZ).

Patients and Methods

A prospective cohort enrolled T2DM patients from 01/01/1994 into the Diabetes Care Support Service, a primary care audit program in Auckland, NZ. The cohort was linked to national registry databases (socioeconomic status, pharmaceutical claim, hospitalization, and death registration). Each cohort member was followed up till death or the study end time (31/12/2019), whichever came first. Incident clinical events (stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and premature mortality (PM)) were used as outcomes. The attributable fractions (AFs) were estimated for the whole population and for specific population with NZ Europeans (NZE) and/or least deprived population as reference, both unadjusted and with adjustment for covariables by Cox Regression models.

Results

Among 36,267 patients, adjusted population AFs indicated 6.6(-30.8-33.3)% of PM, 17.1(5.8-27.0)% of MI, 35.3(22.6-46.0)% of stroke, 14.3(3.2-24.2)% of HF, and 15.9(6.7-24.2)% of ESRD could be attributed to deprivation; while 14.3(3.3-25.4)% of PM, -3.3(-8.3-1.5)% of MI, -0.5(-6.7-5.3)% of stroke, 4.7(0.3-8.8)% of HF, 13.3(9.9-16.6)% of ESRD could be attributed to ethnicity. Deprivation contributed a significant AF to stroke, while ethnicity was important for ESRD. Gradient of AF for deprivation indicated NZE and Asians were most affected by deprivation across outcomes. Conversely, Māori, with the highest AFs for ethnicity of PM and ESRD, were unaffected by deprivation. At same deprivations, the AFs of MI and stroke were greatest among NZE compared with other ethnic groups; the AF of ESRD was greatest among Māori and Pasifika.

Conclusion

Both socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity are strongly associated with outcomes in patients with T2DM in NZ, although the extent of the deprivation gradient is greatest among NZE and Asians, and least among Māori.

Years of Potential Life Lost on Renal Replacement Therapy: Retrospective Study Cohort

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease is the non-communicable disease with the highest growth in morbidity and mortality. Renal transplantation (RT) is the first option of renal replacement in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and dialysis is an alternative. However, there is no objective quantification of the impact of both options on a patient's overall survival. The purpose of our study is to assess the potential years of life lost by patients on renal replacement therapy.

METHODS

Retrospective study cohort conducted from 2008 to 2018 based on autonomic data registry.

RESULTS

11,551 patients included who received renal replacement therapy (RRT) in a range of age from 15 to 94 years. The mean age at the time of onset was 62.7 years, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) (62.4; 63.0). The mortality rate of RRT patients was 42.2%, 95% CI (41.5; 43.3) and the mean age at death was 72.7 years, 95% CI (72.4; 73.1). The number of patients with ESKD treated with RT was 3776, 32.7% of the total, 95% CI (31.8; 33.5). The total amount of years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the entire cohort was 77,831.3 years, 48,010.1 years in men, and 29,821.2 years in women. The mean number of YPLL per patient with RRT was 6.74 years in both sexes, 6.95 years in women, and 6.61 years in men. The mean number of potential years of life lost in dialysis patients was 9.0 years in both sexes, 8.8 years in men, and 9.2 years in women, while among kidney transplant recipients this figure decreased to 2.2 years in both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

End-stage chronic kidney disease in renal replacement therapy by dialysis causes an average of 9.0 years of life potentially lost for each patient on dialysis treatment, while having received a kidney transplant reduces this figure by 75.6%.

Sex and Race Disparities in Mortality and Years of Potential Life Lost Among People With HIV: A 21-Year Observational Cohort Study

Background

Since the availability of antiretroviral therapy, mortality rates among people with HIV (PWH) have decreased; however, this does not quantify premature deaths among PWH, and disparities persist.

Methods

We examined all-cause and premature mortality among PWH receiving care at the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic from January 1998 to December 2018. Mortality rates were compared by demographic and clinical factors, and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were calculated using multivariable Poisson regression. For individuals who died, age-adjusted years of potential life lost (aYPLL) per total person-years living with HIV were calculated from US sex-specific life tables, and sex and race differences were examined using multivariable linear regression.

Results

Among 6531 individuals (51% non-Hispanic [NH] White race, 40% NH Black race, 21% cis-gender women, 78% cis-gender men) included, 956 (14.6%) died. In adjusted analysis, PWH alive in the most recent calendar era (2014-2018) had decreased risk of mortality compared with those in the earliest calendar era (1998-2003; aIRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.17-0.29), and women had increased risk of death compared with men (aIRR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12-1.54). Of those who died, Black women had the highest aYPLL (aIRR, 592.5; 95% CI, 588.4-596.6), followed by Black men (aIRR, 470.7; 95% CI, 468.4-472.9), White women (aIRR, 411.5; 95% CI, 405.6-417.4), then White men (aIRR, 308.6; 95% CI, 308.0-309.2). In adjusted models, higher YPLL remained associated with NH Black race and cis-gender women, regardless of HIV risk factor.

Conclusions

Despite marked improvement over time, sex disparities in mortality as well as sex and race disparities in YPLL remained among PWH in this cohort.

Premature mortality from four chronic diseases in Wuhai, China and impact on life expectancy, 2015 to 2020

To analyze the change trend of life expectancy, the change trend of premature death due to 4 major chronic diseases, and its impact on the life expectancy of Wuhai residents from 2015 to 2020, and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of chronic diseases in this area. The data on population death comes from the Wuhai City Residents' Causes of Death Network Reporting System and the total population is calculated using statistics from Wuhai City's permanent population management, from 2015 to 2020. Premature mortality from the 4 main chronic illnesses was calculated using the abridged life table approach. The impact of premature death from chronic diseases on life expectancy was analyzed using the Arriaga method. The increasing trend of life expectancy of Wuhai citizens was not statistically significant from 2015 to 2020 (t = 2.570, P = .062). Each year, men had a lower life expectancy than women (P < .05). From 2015 to 2020, the downward trend of premature deaths caused by the 4 major non-communicable diseases in Wuhai City was statistically significant (EAPC = -7.74%, P = .041). Premature death from cancer and chronic respiratory disorders decreased, both of which were statistically significant (EAPC < 0, P < .05). The decline in premature mortality from cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disorders, and chronic respiratory system diseases has contributed to increased life expectancy. Diabetes's rise in premature mortality made a possible "negative contribution" to life expectancy (-0.036 years, -1.79%). From 2015 to 2020, the decreasing trend of the overall premature mortality caused by the 4 major non-communicable diseases in Wuhai was statistically significant, and the life expectancy of females was higher than that of males. We should concentrate on the prevention and control of major chronic illnesses in males, as well as the influence of changes in diabetes-related early mortality on life expectancy.

The Development and Evaluation of "Life Age"-a Primary Prevention and Population-Focused Risk Communication Tool: Feasibility Study With a Single-Arm Repeated Measures Design

BACKGROUND

Communicating cardiovascular risk to the general population requires forms of communication that can enhance risk perception and stimulate lifestyle changes associated with reduced cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the motivational potential of a novel lifestyle risk assessment ("Life Age") based on factors predictive of both premature mortality and psychosocial well-being.

METHODS

A feasibility study with a single-arm repeated measures design was conducted to evaluate the potential efficacy of Life Age on motivating lifestyle changes. Participants were recruited via social media, completed a web-based version of the Life Age questionnaire at baseline and at follow-up (8 weeks), and received 23 e-newsletters based on their Life Age results along with a mobile tracker. Participants' estimated Life Age scores were analyzed for evidence of lifestyle changes made. Quantitative feedback of participants was also assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 18 of 27 participants completed the two Life Age tests. The median baseline Life Age was 1 year older than chronological age, which was reduced to -1.9 years at follow-up, representing an improvement of 2.9 years (P=.02). There were also accompanying improvements in Mediterranean diet score (P=.001), life satisfaction (P=.003), and sleep (P=.05). Quantitative feedback assessment indicated that the Life Age tool was easy to understand, helpful, and motivating.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the potential benefit of a novel Life Age tool in generating a broad set of lifestyle changes known to be associated with clinical risk factors, similar to "Heart Age." This was achieved without the recourse to expensive biomarker tests. However, the results from this study suggest that the motivated lifestyle changes improved both healthy lifestyle risks and psychosocial well-being, consistent with the approach of Life Age in merging the importance of a healthy lifestyle and psychosocial well-being. Further evaluation using a larger randomized controlled trial is required to fully evaluate the impact of the Life Age tool on lifestyle changes, cardiovascular disease prevention, and overall psychosocial well-being.

Bibliometric Analysis of Global Research Activity on Premature Mortality

Premature mortality is defined as death that occurs before the average age of death for a particular population. Although premature mortality is a public health problem globally, the literature indicates no bibliometric studies that have made a holistic evaluation of the publications on this issue. This study aims to explore the characteristics of the publications on premature mortality in terms of the number of publications, citations, countries, collaboration, and the author’s productivity and to further identify the trending keyword and relevant research topics. All the articles related to premature mortality data were retrieved from the Web of Science (WOS) database using the search terms “premature death,” “premature mortality,” or “years of life loss.” The retrieved articles were downloaded in a BibTeX format file. A Bibliometrix package from R software was used to perform bibliometric analyses. A total of 1060 original research articles and reviews have been published since 1971, with a total of 5499 contributing authors. The number of publications has increased substantially in the past decade. The annual percentage growth rate of publications is 5.08%. The United States is the leading country in this area of research with the highest number of publications (n = 280), the highest total citation (17,378), and the most activity in collaboration. Our thematic map suggests that the cluster for cardiovascular disease became the main research domain in this field, while the cluster for air pollution is an important topic for future research. Additionally, neurodegeneration is another cluster of research that should be developed further and connected with premature mortality. These bibliometric findings hopefully will help scholars better understand the global overview of premature mortality and provide information for potential collaborators, with the information promising attractive areas for future research.

Progress in Reducing Disparities in Premature Mortality in the USA: a Descriptive Study

BACKGROUND

Eliminating health disparities among different segments of the US population is an overarching goal of the US Healthy People 2020 objectives.

OBJECTIVE

Examine changes in educational, rural-urban, and racial disparities in premature mortality during the past 10 years.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

Descriptive analysis of US mortality data from 2007 to 2017.

MAIN MEASURES

Relative and absolute rural-urban, educational attainment, and Black-White disparities in premature mortality for all-cause and top 10 causes of death among persons ages 25-74 years, estimated as rate ratios and rate differences between ≤12 and ≥16 years of education, rural versus urban, and non-Hispanic Black (Black) versus non-Hispanic White (White), respectively, in 2007 and 2017.

KEY RESULTS

During 2007-2017, mortality rates in persons aged 25-74 years in the USA increased for several leading causes of death, especially in persons with <16 years of education, rural residents, and White people. As a result, disparity in mortality between 2007 and 2017 widened on both relative and absolute scales for all-cause and for 6 of the top 10 causes of death by education and for all-cause and for 9 of the top 10 causes by rural/urban residence. In contrast, Black-White disparities narrowed for all-cause and for all 7 causes that Black people had a higher rate than White people. For all-cause mortality for example, absolute disparities in the number of deaths per 100,000 person-years between 2007 and 2017 increased from 454.0 (95%CI, 446.0-462.1) to 542.7 (535.6-549.7) for educational attainment and from 85.8 (82.8-88.8) to 140.5 (137.6-143.4) for rural versus urban; in contrast, absolute Black-White disparity decreased from 315.3 (311.0-319.7) to 221.7 (218.1-225.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Educational and rural-urban disparities in premature mortality widened, whereas Black-White disparities narrowed in the USA between 2007 and 2017, though overall rates remained considerably higher in Black people.

Life expectancy and years of potential life lost in bipolar disorder: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is increasing research examining excess mortality in people with bipolar disorder using life expectancy and related measures, which quantify the disease impact on survival. However, there has been no meta-analysis to date summarising existing data on life expectancy in those with bipolar disorder.

AIMS

To systematically review and quantitatively synthesise estimates of life expectancy and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in people with bipolar disorder.

METHOD

We searched Embase, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science databases up to 31 March 2021. We generated pooled life expectancy using random-effects models, and derived YPLL summary estimate by calculating averaged values weighted by sample size of individual studies. Subgroup analyses were conducted for gender, geographical region, study period, a given age (set-age) for lifespan estimation and causes of death. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021241705).

RESULTS

Eleven and 13 studies were included in the review for life expectancy (n = 96 601) and YPLL (n = 128 989), respectively. Pooled life expectancy was 66.88 years (95% CI 64.47-69.28; I² = 99.9%, P < 0.001), was higher in women than men (70.51 (95% CI 68.61-72.41) v. 64.59 (95% CI 61.16-68.03); z = 2.00, P = 0.003) and was lowest in Africa. Weighted average YPLL was 12.89 years (95% CI 12.72-13.07), and was greatest in Africa. More YPLL was observed when lifespan was estimated at birth than at other set-age. YPLLs attributable to natural and unnatural deaths were 5.94 years (95% CI 5.81-6.07) and 5.69 years (95% CI 5.59-5.79), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Bipolar disorder is associated with substantially shortened life expectancy. Implementation of multilevel, targeted interventions is urgently needed to reduce this mortality gap.

Adverse childhood experiences and premature mortality through mid-adulthood: A five-decade prospective study

Background

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) can have lasting effects on adult health and survival. In this study, we aimed to examine how the cumulative number and clustering patterns of ACEs were related to premature mortality.

Methods

Participants (N=46 129; 45% White, 48% Black; 49·5% females) were offspring (born in 1959-1966) of participants enrolled in the Collaborative Perinatal Project (CPP). We conducted latent class analysis to examine the clustering patterns of ACEs assessed between children's birth and age seven. We also calculated the cumulative ACE scores of 13 individual ACEs. Cox regression models were used to examine the associations of ACE clusters and scores with risk of premature mortality from adolescence to mid-adulthood.

Findings

At the start of the follow-up for mortality in 1979, participants were 12-20 years old (Mean=15·99 years), and within the 38-year follow-up through 2016, 3 344 deaths were observed among the 46 129 CPP offspring. Five latent classes of ACEs were identified. Compared to children with Low Adversity (48% of the sample), children in Family Instability (9%, HR=1·28, 95%CI 1·07-1·53), Poverty & Crowded Housing (21%, HR=1·41, 95%CI 1·24-1·62), and Poverty & Parental Separation (19%, HR=1·50, 95%CI 1·33-1·68) classes had higher hazards of premature mortality. In addition, children with 2 (HR=1·27, 95%CI 1·14-1·41), 3 (HR=1·29, 95%CI 1·15-1·45), and 4+ (HR=1·45, 95%CI 1·30-1·61) ACEs had higher hazards of mortality than those with no ACE. The clusters of Poverty & Crowded Housing (HR=1·28, 95%CI 1·10-1·49) and Poverty & Parental Separation (HR=1·23, 95%CI 1·02-1·48) remained associated with higher risk of premature mortality, beyond the cumulative risk of higher number of ACEs (HR=1·05, 95%CI 1·01-1·08).

Interpretation

About half of the CPP cohort experienced early life adversities that clustered into four distinct patterns, which were associated with different risk of premature mortality. It is important to deepen our understanding of how specific clusters of childhood adversities affect health and premature mortality to better inform approaches to prevention and interventions.

Association between serum carotenoids and premature mortality in a population-based case-control study

Carotenoids are abundant pigments mainly contained in vegetables and fruits, and show antioxidant properties by quenching free radicals in human body. Few studies have investigated associations between serum carotenoid levels and premature mortality. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between serum carotenoid level and premature mortality in a Japanese population. This study included 446 Japanese adults (174 men, aged of 40-64) recruited as participants in the Japan Collaborative Cohort (JACC) Study. Serum carotenoid level was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography. Premature mortality was defined as death before 65 years old during the follow-up period. Premature mortality was ascertained in 60 men (34.5%) and 65 women (23.9%). In men, compared to the 1^st tertile of serum β-cryptoxanthin and provitamin A, those who were in the 3^rd tertile had lower risks of premature all-cause mortality (OR, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.07-0.47 for β-cryptoxanthin, and 0.24, 0.09-0.61 for provitamin A). In women, compared to the 1^st tertile of serum β-cryptoxanthin, those who were in the 3^rd tertile had higher risks of premature all-cause mortality (OR, 95% CI: 1.94, 1.00-4.03). These significant associations were observed in analyses for premature cancer mortality. We found significant associations between higher levels of serum β-cryptoxanthin and provitamin A and lower risks of premature mortality among Japanese men, while a different directional association was found in women. Although these findings suggest roles of serum carotenoids on premature mortality, further studies are needed to validate this association in other populations.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic improvement, residential mobility and premature death: a population-based cohort study and inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis

BACKGROUND

Causal inference using area-level socioeconomic measures is challenging due to risks of residual confounding and imprecise specification of the neighbourhood-level social exposure. By using multi-linked longitudinal data to address these common limitations, our study aimed to identify protective effects of neighbourhood socioeconomic improvement on premature mortality risk.

METHODS

We used data from the Canadian Community Health Survey, linked to health administrative data, including longitudinal residential history. Individuals aged 25-69, living in low-socioeconomic status (SES) areas at survey date (n = 8335), were followed up for neighbourhood socioeconomic improvement within 5 years. We captured premature mortality (death before age 75) until 2016. We estimated protective effects of neighbourhood socioeconomic improvement exposures using Cox proportional hazards models. Stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) were used to account for confounding by baseline health, social and behavioural characteristics. Separate analyses were carried out for three exposure specifications: any improvement, improvement by residential mobility (i.e. movers) or improvement in place (non-movers).

RESULTS

Overall, 36.9% of the study cohort experienced neighbourhood socioeconomic improvement either by residential mobility or improvement in place. There were noted differences in baseline health status, demographics and individual SES between exposure groups. IPTW survival models showed a modest protective effect on premature mortality risk of socioeconomic improvement overall (HR = 0.86; 95% CI 0.63, 1.18). Effects were stronger for improvement in place (HR = 0.67; 95% CI 0.48, 0.93) than for improvement by residential mobility (HR = 1.07, 95% 0.67, 1.51).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides robust evidence that specific neighbourhood socioeconomic improvement exposures are important for determining mortality risks.

Premature mortality in a population-based cohort of autistic adults in Canada

Research from different countries suggests that autistic adults are more likely to die prematurely than non-autistic adults, but these studies do not always investigate male and female individuals separately and do not consider whether this pattern is unique to autistic people or is also an issue for people with other developmental disabilities. We examined premature mortality in autistic males and females (assigned at birth) in a population-based cohort, compared to males and females with and without other developmental disabilities. Using linked administrative health and social services population data from Ontario, Canada, age-matched males and females aged 19-65 years were followed between 2010 and 2016, and causes of death were determined. Over the 6-year observation period, 330 of 42,607 persons (0.77%) in the group without developmental disabilities had died compared to 259 of 10,646 persons (2.43%) in the autism group and 419 of 10,615 persons (3.95%) in the other developmental disabilities group. Autistic males and females were more likely to die than non-autistic males (adjusted risk ratio, RR 3.13, 95%CI 2.58-3.79) and non-autistic females (adjusted RR 3.12, 95%CI 2.35-4.13) without developmental disabilities, but were less likely to die than adults with other developmental disabilities (males: adjusted RR 0.66, 95%CI 0.55-0.79; females: adjusted RR 0.55, 95%CI 0.43-0.71). Most common causes of death varied depending on a person's sex and diagnosis. Given the greater likelihood of premature mortality in adults with developmental disabilities including autism, greater attention and resources directed toward their health and social care are needed, tailored to their sex and diagnosis-informed needs. LAY SUMMARY: This study looked at how many autistic men and women died over 6 years (2010-2016), along with how they died, and compared this to adults who did not have autism living in Ontario, Canada. It found that autistic men and women were more than three times as likely to die as people of the same age who did not have a developmental disability. However, adults with other developmental disabilities besides autism were even more likely to die than autistic adults. This means that we have to pay more attention and invest in better social and health care for autistic people, along with people who have other types of developmental disabilities.

Trends in premature cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Polish population aged 25-64 years, 2000-2016

Background

Many scientific reports have shown a decrease in total cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) mortality over the past few decades, but too little attention has been paid to premature mortality. CeVD accounted for 22.5% and 17.8% of premature cardiovascular disease deaths in Poland, in 2000 and 2016, respectively.

Objective

The aim of the study was to analyse premature CeVD mortality in the Polish population in the recent years, the dynamics of its changes and the potential factors that may have contributed to the decline in mortality. The main goal of the study was to overview the levels and trends in premature CeVD mortality with an emphasis on haemorrhagic, ischaemic and unspecified (not specified as haemorrhagic or ischaemic) stroke.

Material and methods

The analysis was based on a database of the Central Statistical Office of Poland and included data from 2000-2016 on premature cerebrovascular deaths occurring between 25 and 64 years of age (N=104,786). CeVD and haemorrhagic, ischaemic or unspecified stroke were coded with ICD-10 codes I60-I69, I61-I62, I63 and I64, respectively. The analysis included assessment of CeVD deaths distribution and evaluation of age-specific mortality rates in 10-year age groups and age-standardised mortality rates (SMR) in the age group 25-64 years, separately for men and women. Trends in SMRs have been studied in the period 2000-2016.

Results

The number of CeVD deaths decreased by 32.8% in men and 48.8% in women. There was a two-fold decline in CeVD mortality: from 59 to 29 male and from 30 to 12 female per 100,000. In addition, a 2-year increase in the median age of CeVD death was observed (Men: 56.4 to 58.4 years, Women: 56.4 to 58.7 years, p<0.001). A statistically significant decline in mortality (per 100,000) was also noticed for haemorrhagic stroke (Men: 18.7 to 10.4; Women: 9.6 to 3.8), ischaemic stroke (Men: 11.8 to 8.4; Women: 4.7 to 3.0) and unspecified stroke (Men: 19.7 to 3.5; Women: 9.1 to 1.3).

Conclusions

A substantial decline in premature CeVD mortality was observed in the period 2000-2016. Additionally, the number of deaths that could not be classified as haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke death decreased significantly. The increasingly widespread use of new post-stroke therapies and their availability make it possible to expect a further decrease in CeVD mortality. However, the necessary actions should be taken to compensate for the disparities in CeVD mortality between men and women.

Trends in premature mortality rates among the Polish population due to cardiovascular diseases

OBJECTIVES

At the end of the 20th century, after years of negligence in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases, Poland was struggling with very high premature mortality. The period of 1991-2005 brought significant improvements since the general public introduced beneficial dietary modifications. This paper aims to analyze the changes in the rate of premature mortality due to tobacco-dependent cardiovascular diseases in Poland in 2008-2017.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The time trends of deaths occurring under the age of 65 years caused by ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, atherosclerosis and aortic aneurysm were analyzed. Both standardized and crude premature mortality rates were used, as well as mortality rates for patients grouped into 5-year age ranges with a breakdown by gender. The joinpoint model was used to determine these time trends.

RESULTS

Premature mortality due to the analyzed cardiovascular diseases decreased linearly in 2008-2017. In the case of ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases, the decrease amounted to approx. 5% per year, both in the female and male population. However, in the case of atherosclerosis and aortic aneurysms, the rate of mortality reduction ranged 4-7% per year. The reduction concerned all the examined age groups, but with different dynamics. The most considerable annual decrease was observed in the group of patients aged 40-44 years (7.9% for females and 8.9% for males). Along with the increase in age, the dynamics of reduction decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2008-2017, Poland experienced a decline in premature mortality due to tobacco-related cardiovascular diseases, particularly in the age group of 40-44 years. The decline may have been associated, among other things, with a reduction in exposure to tobacco smoke, one of the cardiovascular risk factors. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2022;35(1):27-38.

Mortality Trends Related to Bladder Cancer in Spain, 1999-2018

Bladder cancer (BC) is an important cause of premature mortality (PM, <75 years). Spain has one of the highest BC mortality rates in Europe. The objective of this study was to analyse BC mortality trends between 1999 and 2018 in Spain. The study was based on data from the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística-INE). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated by sex and age group. A trend analysis was performed using Joinpoint regression models and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Mortality in men resulting from BC decreased in all age groups studied. This was not observed in women, for whom mortality only decreased in the ≥75 age group. Deaths due to BC occurred prematurely in 38.6% of men and in 23.8% of women, which indicated a greater impact on YPLL in men compared to women. Over the last 20 years, there has been a significant decrease in BC mortality rate, except in women under 75 years of age. Despite this temporal trend of decreasing mortality, BC continues to have a significant impact on YPLL, mainly in men. Given this context, it is important to direct more resources towards prevention and early diagnosis strategies to correct this situation.

Measuring Substance-Related Disorders Using Canadian Administrative Health Databanks: Interprovincial Comparisons of Recorded Diagnostic Rates, Incidence Proportions and Mortality Rate Ratios

CONTEXT

Assessing temporal changes in the recorded diagnostic rates, incidence proportions, and health outcomes of substance-related disorders (SRD) can inform public health policymakers in reducing harms associated with alcohol and other drugs.

OBJECTIVE

To report the annual and cumulative recorded diagnostic rates and incidence proportions of SRD, as well as mortality rate ratios (MRRs) by cause of death among this group in Canada, according to their province of residence.

METHODS

Analyses were performed on linked administrative health databases (AHD; physician claims, hospitalizations, and vital statistics) in five Canadian provinces (Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, and Nova Scotia). Canadians 12 years and older and registered for their provincial healthcare coverage were included. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes) was used for case identification of SRD from April 2001 to March 2018.

RESULTS

During the study period, the annual recorded SRD diagnostic rates increased in Alberta (2001-2002: 8.0‰; 2017-2018: 12.8‰), Ontario (2001-2002: 11.5‰; 2017-2018: 14.4‰), and Nova Scotia (2001-2002: 6.4‰; 2017-2018: 12.7‰), but remained stable in Manitoba (2001-2002: 5.5‰; 2017-2018: 5.4‰) and Québec (2001-2002 and 2017-2018: 7.5‰). Cumulative recorded SRD diagnostic rates increased steadily for all provinces. Recorded incidence proportions increased significantly in Alberta (2001-2002: 4.5‰; 2017-2018: 5.0‰) and Nova Scotia (2001-2002: 3.3‰; 2017-2018: 3.8‰), but significantly decreased in Ontario (2001-2002: 6.2‰; 2017-2018: 4.7‰), Québec (2001-2002: 4.1‰; 2017-2018: 3.2‰) and Manitoba (2001-2002: 2.7‰; 2017-2018: 2.0‰). For almost all causes of death, a higher MRR was found among individuals with recorded SRD than in the general population. The causes of death in 2015-2016 with the highest MRR for SRD individuals were SRD, suicide, and non-suicide trauma in Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba, and Québec.

DISCUSSION

Linked AHD covering almost the entire population can be useful to monitor the medical service trends of SRD and, therefore, guide health services planning in Canadian provinces.

Double Trouble of Air Pollution by Anthropogenic Dust

With urbanization worldwide in recent decades, anthropogenic dust (AD) emissions due to heavy urban construction and off-road vehicle use have been increasing. Its perturbations on urban air pollution at the global scale are still unclear. Based on observations, we found that a high urban AD optical depth is often accompanied by severe non-dust aerosol optical depth in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), both magnitudes even comparable. To investigate the causes, an AD emission inventory constrained by satellite retrievals is implemented in a global climate model. The results show that AD-induced surface radiative cooling of up to -15.9 ± 4.0 W m^-2 regionally leads to reduced PBL height, which deteriorates non-dust pollution, especially over India and northern China, in addition to the tremendous direct AD contribution to pollutants. The estimated global total premature mortality due to AD is 0.8 million deaths per year and is more severe in populous regions.

Handgrip Strength to Predict the Risk of All-Cause and Premature Mortality in Korean Adults: A 10-Year Cohort Study

The prospective association of muscular weakness with the risk of all-cause and premature mortality in a general population remains unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the prospective effects of handgrip strength and muscular weakness on risk for all-cause and premature mortality over 10 years using a large nationwide sample of Korean adults. The study participants included 9229 middle and older adults (4131 males and 5098 females), using data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2006-2016. Muscular strength was measured using handgrip strength. Muscle weakness was defined using the sex-specific handgrip strength index based on the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (AWGSOP). The primary outcome was all-cause and premature mortality assessed based on the death certificate. The hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was negatively associated with level of handgrip strength independent of potential confounding factors (HR: 2.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.62-2.63 for lowest quartile vs. highest quartile). When examined using muscle weakness defined using the AWGSOP diagnosis, the mortality was 1.56 times higher in the weak group (HR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.36-1.78). We also found that risk of premature mortality was observed in the lowest quartile (HR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.80-3.05) and the muscle weakness group (HR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.52-2.13) in the fully adjusted model. Our 10-year prospective cohort study showed that handgrip strength and muscle weakness are strongly associated with an increased risk of all-cause and premature mortality in healthy middle-aged and older adults.

Spatial Distribution of PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality in China

PM2.5 is a major component of air pollution in China and has a serious threat to public health. It is very important to quantify spatial characteristics of the health effects caused by outdoor PM2.5 exposure. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration (45.9 μg/m3 national average in 2016) and premature mortality attributed to PM2.5 in cities at the prefectural level and above in China in 2016. Using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM), the total premature mortality in China was estimated to be 1.55 million persons, and the per capita mortality was 11.2 per 10,000 persons in the year 2016, resulting in higher estimates compared to the integrated exposure-response model. We assessed the premature mortality attributed to PM2.5 through common diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC), and lower respiratory infections (LRI). The premature mortality due to IHD and CEV accounted for 68.5% of the total mortality, and the per capita mortality (per 10,000 persons) for all ages due to IHD was 3.86, the highest among diseases. For the spatial distribution of disease-specific premature mortality, the top two highest absolute numbers of premature mortality associated with IHD, CEV, LC, and LRI, respectively, were found in Chongqing and Beijing. In 338 cities of China, we have found a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of per capita premature mortality, indicating the necessity of coordinated regional governance for an efficient control of PM2.5.

Cost of premature mortality attributable to smoking in the Middle East and North Africa

Background

Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of premature mortality, incurring substantial economic costs.

Aims

To estimate the rate and cost of premature mortality attributable to smoking in the 24 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in 2015.

Methods

Smoking attributable fractions were estimated. Twenty-four smoking-related diseases were included in the analysis. For each country, the total number of deaths by disease, age, and gender among individuals aged ≥ 15 years were derived from a World Health Organization database. Human capital approach was used in calculating cost of premature mortality.

Results

Smoking was responsible for 465 285 deaths in MENA countries, resulting in 7 122 706 years of potential life lost, or an average of 15.23 years lost per smoking-related death. Of the total 465 285 smoking-related deaths, 412 415 (88.6%) occurred in men, accounting for 37% of all deaths from the diseases considered in this analysis among men. The total mortality cost attributable to smoking was estimated at US$ 29.7 billion in 2015 (0.76% of MENA's gross domestic product). Turkey was the country most affected by the tobacco epidemic, representing 41% of smoking-related mortality cost in the whole region, followed by Saudi Arabia (8.76%) and Egypt (7.88%).

Conclusion

Smoking is an important preventable cause of premature mortality in MENA countries. Substantial decline in smoking-attributable deaths and significant economic cost saving can be achieved in this region through more effective tobacco control policies.

Evidence of Increased Age and Sex Standardized Death Rates Among Individuals Who Accessed Opioid Agonist Treatment Before the Era of Synthetic Opioids in Ontario, Canada

Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate age-sex standardized death rates (ASDR) from all causes from 2011 to 2015 among people who have accessed opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and compare rates living in the Northern and Southern areas of Ontario. Methods Routinely collected administrative health data was used to calculate crude death rates and age-sex standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 1,000,000 population of individuals who accessed OAT and compared the rates geographically from 2011 to 2015. The weighted ASDRs for each year were calculated by using the mid-year population of these regions. The rate ratios were calculated considering the base year as 2011.  Results A total of 55,924 adults who accessed OAT were included between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2015. The majority of patients in the cohort - 52.3% - were between 15 and 34 years old, 32.5% were female, 11.3% were in the lowest income group, 71.1% lived in Southern areas. Overall, the ASDR steadily increased during the study period and spiked in 2015. We found that among individuals who had accessed OAT, living in Southern Ontario was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those living in Northern Ontario. ASDR for Northern Ontario was 20.0 (95% confidence interval (CI)= 10.2-34.2) in 2011, and 103.5(95%CI=78.5-133.5) in 2015, which was a five-fold increase from 2011. Whereas in Southern Ontario, ASDR in 2011 was 13.8 (95% CI= 11.5-16.5), and in 2015 ASDR was 60.8 (95%CI=55.8-66.1), which was only a 4-fold increase from 2011 Conclusion Our findings demonstrate evidence of a steadily increasing ASDR among individuals who accessed OAT with higher rates in Northern areas of the province before the era of synthetic opioids in Ontario, Canada.

Punitive Social Policy and Vital Inequality

Geographical inequalities in life and death are among the world's most pronounced in the United States. However, the driving forces behind this macroscopic variation in population health outcomes remain surprisingly understudied, both empirically and theoretically. The present article steps into this breach by assessing a number of theoretically informed hypotheses surrounding the underlying causes of such spatial heterogeneity. Above and beyond a range of usual suspects, such as poverty, unemployment, and ethno-racial disparities, we find that a hitherto neglected explanans is prison incarceration. In particular, through the use of previously unavailable county-level panel data and a compound instrumentation technique suited to isolating exogenous treatment variation, high imprisonment rates are shown to substantially increase the population-wide risk of premature death. Our findings contribute to the political economy of population health by relating the rise of the carceral state to the amplification of geographically anchored unequal life chances.

Cancer death and potential years of life lost in Feicheng City, China: Trends from 2013 to 2018

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of cancer-related mortality on life expectancy in Feicheng City.We extracted the death records and population data of Feicheng City from 2013 to 2018 through the Feicheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The mortality, premature mortality, cause-eliminated life expectancy, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average potential years of life lost (APYLL), annual change percentage (APC), and other indicators of cancer were calculated. The age-standardized rates were calculated using the sixth national census (2010).From 2013 to 2018, the mortality rate of cancer in Feicheng City was 221.55/100,000, and the standardized mortality rate was 166.37/100,000. The standardized mortality rate increased from 2013 to 2014 and then decreased annually. The premature mortality of cancer was 8.98% and showed a downward trend (APC = -2.47%, t = -3.10, P = .04). From 2013 to 2018, the average life expectancy of residents in Feicheng City was 78.63 years. Eliminating the impact of cancer, life expectancy could increase by 3.72 years. The rate of life loss caused by cancer in men was higher than that in women. The total life loss caused by cancer deaths was 126,870.50 person-years, the potential life loss rate was 22.51‰, and the average potential life loss was 13.30 years. The standardized potential years of life lost rate showed a downward trend (APC = -2.96%, t = -3.72, P = .02), and APYLL decreased by 1.98% annually (t = -5.44, P = .01). The top 5 malignant tumors in APYLL were leukemia, breast cancer, brain tumor, liver cancer, and ovarian cancer.Lung cancer, esophageal cancer, female breast cancer, and childhood leukemia have a great impact on the life expectancy of residents in Feicheng City. Effective measures need to be taken to reduce the disease burden of malignant tumors.

The ever-increasing importance of cancer as a leading cause of premature death worldwide

The relative importance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer as leading causes of premature death are examined in this communication. CVD and cancer are now the leading causes in 127 countries, with CVD leading in 70 countries (including Brazil and India) and cancer leading in 57 countries (including China). Such observations can be seen as part of a late phase of an epidemiologic transition, taking place in the second half of the 20th century and the first half of the present one, in which the dominance of infectious diseases is progressively superseded by noncommunicable diseases. According to present ranks and recent trends, cancer may surpass CVD as the leading cause of premature death in most countries over the course of this century. Clearly, governments must factor in these transitions in developing cancer policies for the local disease profile.