Machine learning methods to predict outcomes of pharmacological treatment in psychosis

Applications of MRI in Schizophrenia: Current Progress in Establishing Clinical Utility

Schizophrenia is a severe mental illness that significantly impacts the lives of affected individuals and with increasing mortality rates. Early detection and intervention are crucial for improving outcomes but the lack of validated biomarkers poses great challenges in such efforts. The use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in schizophrenia enables the investigation of the disorder's etiological and neuropathological substrates in vivo. After decades of research, promising findings of MRI have been shown to aid in screening high-risk individuals and predicting illness onset, and predicting symptoms and treatment outcomes of schizophrenia. The integration of machine learning and deep learning techniques makes it possible to develop intelligent diagnostic and prognostic tools with extracted or selected imaging features. In this review, we aimed to provide an overview of current progress and prospects in establishing clinical utility of MRI in schizophrenia. We first provided an overview of MRI findings of brain abnormalities that might underpin the symptoms or treatment response process in schizophrenia patients. Then, we summarized the ongoing efforts in the computer-aided utility of MRI in schizophrenia and discussed the gap between MRI research findings and real-world applications. Finally, promising pathways to promote clinical translation were provided. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 2 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 3.

Multivariate brain-behaviour associations in psychiatric disorders

Mapping brain-behaviour associations is paramount to understand and treat psychiatric disorders. Standard approaches involve investigating the association between one brain and one behavioural variable (univariate) or multiple variables against one brain/behaviour feature ('single' multivariate). Recently, large multimodal datasets have propelled a new wave of studies that leverage on 'doubly' multivariate approaches capable of parsing the multifaceted nature of both brain and behaviour simultaneously. Within this movement, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and partial least squares (PLS) emerge as the most popular techniques. Both seek to capture shared information between brain and behaviour in the form of latent variables. We provide an overview of these methods, review the literature in psychiatric disorders, and discuss the main challenges from a predictive modelling perspective. We identified 39 studies across four diagnostic groups: attention deficit and hyperactive disorder (ADHD, k = 4, N = 569), autism spectrum disorders (ASD, k = 6, N = 1731), major depressive disorder (MDD, k = 5, N = 938), psychosis spectrum disorders (PSD, k = 13, N = 1150) and one transdiagnostic group (TD, k = 11, N = 5731). Most studies (67%) used CCA and focused on the association between either brain morphology, resting-state functional connectivity or fractional anisotropy against symptoms and/or cognition. There were three main findings. First, most diagnoses shared a link between clinical/cognitive symptoms and two brain measures, namely frontal morphology/brain activity and white matter association fibres (tracts between cortical areas in the same hemisphere). Second, typically less investigated behavioural variables in multivariate models such as physical health (e.g., BMI, drug use) and clinical history (e.g., childhood trauma) were identified as important features. Finally, most studies were at risk of bias due to low sample size/feature ratio and/or in-sample testing only. We highlight the importance of carefully mitigating these sources of bias with an exemplar application of CCA.

Predicting treatment outcome based on resting-state functional connectivity in internalizing mental disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Predicting treatment outcome in internalizing mental disorders prior to treatment initiation is pivotal for precision mental healthcare. In this regard, resting-state functional connectivity (rs-FC) and machine learning have often shown promising prediction accuracies. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates these studies, considering their risk of bias through the Prediction Model Study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). We examined the predictive performance of features derived from rs-FC, identified features with the highest predictive value, and assessed the employed machine learning pipelines. We searched the electronic databases Scopus, PubMed and PsycINFO on the 12th of December 2022, which resulted in 13 included studies. The mean balanced accuracy for predicting treatment outcome was 77% (95% CI: [72%- 83%]). rs-FC of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex had high predictive value in most studies. However, a high risk of bias was identified in all studies, compromising interpretability. Methodological recommendations are provided based on a comprehensive exploration of the studies' machine learning pipelines, and potential fruitful developments are discussed.

Neuroimaging Biomarkers for Drug Discovery and Development in Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a chronic mental illness that affects up to 1% of the population. While efficacious therapies are available for positive symptoms, effective treatment of cognitive and negative symptoms remains an unmet need after decades of research. New developments in the field of neuroimaging are accelerating our knowledge gain regarding the underlying pathophysiology of symptoms in schizophrenia and psychosis spectrum disorders, inspiring new targets for drug development. However, no validated and qualified biomarkers are currently available to support the development of new therapeutics. This review summarizes the current use of neuroimaging technology in clinical drug development for psychotic disorders. As exemplified by drug development programs that target NMDA receptor hypofunction, neuroimaging results play a critical role in target discovery and establishing target engagement and dose selection. Furthermore, pharmacological neuroimaging may provide response biomarkers that allow for early decision making in proof-of-concept studies that leverage pharmacological challenge models in healthy volunteers. That said, while response and predictive biomarkers are starting to be evaluated in patient populations, they continue to play a limited role. Novel approaches to neuroimaging data acquisition and analysis may aid the establishment of biomarkers that are predictive at the individual level in the future. Nevertheless, various gaps in knowledge need to be addressed and biomarkers need to be validated to establish them as "fit for purpose" in drug development.

Out of their minds? Externalist challenges for using AI in forensic psychiatry

Harnessing the power of machine learning (ML) and other Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques promises substantial improvements across forensic psychiatry, supposedly offering more objective evaluations and predictions. However, AI-based predictions about future violent behaviour and criminal recidivism pose ethical challenges that require careful deliberation due to their social and legal significance. In this paper, we shed light on these challenges by considering externalist accounts of psychiatric disorders which stress that the presentation and development of psychiatric disorders is intricately entangled with their outward environment and social circumstances. We argue that any use of predictive AI in forensic psychiatry should not be limited to neurobiology alone but must also consider social and environmental factors. This thesis has practical implications for the design of predictive AI systems, especially regarding the collection and processing of training data, the selection of ML methods, and the determination of their explainability requirements.

Developing prediction models for symptom severity around the time of discharge from a tertiary-care program for treatment-resistant psychosis

Antipsychotics are the only therapeutic class indicated in the symptomatic management of psychotic disorders. However, individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder may not always benefit from these first-line agents. This refractoriness to conventional treatment can be difficult to address in most clinical settings. Therefore, a referral to a tertiary-care program that is better able to deliver specialized care in excess of the needs of most individuals may be necessary. The average outcome following a period of treatment at these programs tends to be one of improvement. Nonetheless, accurate prognostication of individual-level responses may be useful in identifying those who are unlikely to improve despite receiving specialized care. Thus, the main objective of this study was to predict symptom severity around the time of discharge from the Refractory Psychosis Program in British Columbia, Canada using only clinicodemographic information and prescription drug data available at the time of admission. To this end, a different boosted beta regression model was trained to predict the total score on each of the five factors of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) using a data set composed of 320 hospital admissions. Internal validation of these prediction models was then accomplished by nested cross-validation. Insofar as it is possible to make comparisons of model performance across different outcomes, the correlation between predictions and observations tended to be higher for the negative and disorganized factors than the positive, excited, and depressed factors on internal validation. Past scores had the greatest effect on the prediction of future scores across all 5 factors. The results of this study serve as a proof of concept for the prediction of symptom severity using this specific approach.