The association between unexpected weight loss and cancer diagnosis in primary care: a matched cohort analysis of 65,000 presentations

Reevaluating the fraction of cancer attributable to excess weight: overcoming the hidden impact of prediagnostic weight loss

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the magnitude of the potential underestimation of the proportion of cancer cases attributable to excess weight, known as population attributable fraction (PAF), due to potential bias from prediagnostic weight loss already present at baseline of cohort studies and to overcome it as much as possible.

METHODS

Data from the UK Biobank cohort participants aged 40-69 without prior cancer diagnosis were analyzed. We assessed the magnitude of associations of excess weight with the incidence of obesity-related cancers combined, and separately for gastrointestinal (GI) and other cancers. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and PAFs for excess weight at baseline were estimated for various periods of time after weight measurements.

FINDINGS

Of 458,660 participants, 20,218 individuals developed obesity-related cancers during a median 11.0-year follow-up, comprising 8,460 GI, and 11,765 non-GI cancers. PAFs were much higher for cancers occurring more than four years after recruitment than for cancers occurring within the initial four years: 17.7% versus 7.2%, 21.4% versus 11.7% for GI, non-GI and all obesity-related cancers combined, respectively. With respect to total cancer (including cancers with no established relationship with excess weight), PAFs were estimated as 5.1% and 8.8% for the 0-4 and 4-14-year periods of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The proportion of cancers attributable to excess weight is likely substantially larger than previously estimated based on cohort studies with short follow-up time or no or only limited exclusion of the early years of follow-up from the analyses.

Polygenic score for body mass index in relation to mortality among patients with renal cell cancer

BACKGROUND

The association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality among individuals with renal cell cancer (RCC) is debated, with some observational studies suggesting a lower mortality associated with higher BMI. However, methodological issues such as confounding and reverse causation may bias these findings. Using BMI-associated genetic variants can avoid these biases and generate more valid estimates.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we included 1264 RCC patients (446 deaths) from the UK Biobank. We created a BMI polygenic score (PGS) based on 336 BMI-associated genetic variants. The association between the PGS and mortality (all-cause and RCC-specific) was evaluated by logistic regression (all RCC cases) and Cox regression (906 incident cases). For comparison, the associations of measured pre-diagnostic BMI and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) with mortality were quantified by Cox regression among incident cases. We stratified these analyses by time between anthropometric measurement and RCC diagnosis to assess the influence of reverse causation.

RESULTS

We did not observe an association between the BMI PGS and all-cause mortality among RCC patients (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.88,1.10). No association was found for pre-diagnostic BMI (HR per 5 kg/m2 increase = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.83,1.04) or WHR (HR per 0.1 increase = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.83,1.13) with mortality. In patients with anthropometrics measured within 2 years before RCC diagnosis, we observed associations of higher BMI (HR per 5 kg/m2 = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.59,0.98) and WHR (HR = 0.67 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI: 0.45,0.98) with a lower risk of death. Similar patterns were observed for RCC-specific mortality.

CONCLUSION

We found no association between either genetic variants for high BMI or measured pre-diagnostic body adiposity and mortality among RCC patients, and our results suggested a role for reverse causation in the association of obesity with lower mortality. Future studies should be designed carefully to produce unbiased estimates that account for confounding and reverse causation.

Weight change and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A 25-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Whether the dynamic weight change is an independent risk factor for mortality remains controversial. This study aimed to examine the association between weight change and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality based on the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT) cohort.

METHODS

Body weight of 21,028 healthy residents of Linxian, Henan province, aged 40-69 years was measured two times from 1986 to 1991. Outcome events were prospectively collected up to 2016. Weight maintenance group (weight change <2 kg) or stable normal weight group was treated as the reference. Cox proportional hazard model was performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) to estimate the risk of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 21,028 subjects were included in the final analysis. Compared with the weight maintenance group, subjects with weight loss ≥2 kg had an increased risk of death from all-cause (HR All-cause  = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.19, P  <0.001), cancer (HR Cancer  = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.21, P  = 0.009), and heart disease (HR Heart diseases  = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.11-1.31, P  <0.001), whereas subjects with weight gain ≥5 kg had 11% (HR Cancer  = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.79-0.99, P  = 0.033) lower risk of cancer mortality and 23% higher risk of stroke mortality (HR Stroke  = 1.23,95% CI: 1.12-1.34, P  <0.001). For the change of weight status, both going from overweight to normal weight and becoming underweight within 5 years could increase the risk of total death (HR Overweight to normal = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.09-1.27; HR Becoming underweight = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.25-1.46) and cancer death (HR Overweight to normal = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04-1.39; HR Becoming underweight = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.24-1.67), while stable overweight could increase the risk of total death (HR Stable overweight = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05-1.17) and death from stroke (HR Stable overweight = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.33-1.56). Interaction effects were observed between age and weight change on cancer mortality, as well as between baseline BMI and weight change on all-cause, heart disease, and stroke mortality (all Pinteraction  <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss was associated with an increased risk of all-cause, cancer, and heart disease mortality, whereas excessive weight gain and stable overweight were associated with a higher risk of stroke mortality. Efforts of weight management should be taken to improve health status.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ , NCT00342654.

Risk of cancer and serious disease in Danish patients with urgent referral for serious non-specific symptoms and signs of cancer in Funen 2014-2021

BACKGROUND

In 2011, as the first European country, Denmark introduced the non-organ-specific cancer patient pathway (CPP) for patients presenting with non-specific symptoms and signs of cancer (NSSC). The proportion of patients with cancer over time is unknown.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of all patients with a NSSC-CPP investigational course in the province of Funen to the Diagnostic Centre in Svendborg from 2014 to 2021 was performed to evaluate the proportion of patients with cancer and serious disease over time.

RESULTS

A total of 6698 patients were referred to the NSSC-CPP of which 20.2% had cancer. While the crude referral rate increased from 114 per 100,000 people in 2014 and stabilised to around 214 in 2017-2021, the cancer detection rate of the total yearly new cancers in Funen diagnosed through the NSSC-CPP in DC Svendborg increased from 3 to 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

With now high and stable conversion and crude referral rates, the NSSC-CPP is one of the largest CPPs in Denmark as measured by the number of new cancer cases found. Similar urgent referral programmes in other countries might fill an unmet medical need for patients presenting with serious non-specific symptoms and signs of cancer in general practice.

The Association between Blood Test Trends and Undiagnosed Cancer: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal

Clinical guidelines include monitoring blood test abnormalities to identify patients at increased risk of undiagnosed cancer. Noting blood test changes over time may improve cancer risk stratification by considering a patient's individual baseline and important changes within the normal range. We aimed to review the published literature to understand the association between blood test trends and undiagnosed cancer. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until 15 May 2023 for studies assessing the association between blood test trends and undiagnosed cancer. We used descriptive summaries and narratively synthesised studies. We included 29 articles. Common blood tests were haemoglobin (24%, n = 7), C-reactive protein (17%, n = 5), and fasting blood glucose (17%, n = 5), and common cancers were pancreatic (29%, n = 8) and colorectal (17%, n = 5). Of the 30 blood tests studied, an increasing trend in eight (27%) was associated with eight cancer types, and a decreasing trend in 17 (57%) with 10 cancer types. No association was reported between trends in 11 (37%) tests and breast, bile duct, glioma, haematological combined, liver, prostate, or thyroid cancers. Our review highlights trends in blood tests that could facilitate the identification of individuals at increased risk of undiagnosed cancer. For most possible combinations of tests and cancers, there was limited or no evidence.

The presenting symptom signatures of incident cancer: evidence from the English 2018 National Cancer Diagnosis Audit

BACKGROUND

Understanding relationships between presenting symptoms and subsequently diagnosed cancers can inform symptom awareness campaigns and investigation strategies.

METHODS

We used English National Cancer Diagnosis Audit 2018 data for 55,122 newly diagnosed patients, and examined the relative frequency of presenting symptoms by cancer site, and of cancer sites by presenting symptom.

RESULTS

Among 38 cancer sites (16 cancer groups), three classes were apparent: cancers with a dominant single presenting symptom (e.g. melanoma); cancers with diverse presenting symptoms (e.g. pancreatic); and cancers that are often asymptomatically detected (e.g. chronic lymphocytic leukaemia). Among 83 symptoms (13 symptom groups), two classes were apparent: symptoms chiefly relating to cancers of the same body system (e.g. certain respiratory symptoms mostly relating to respiratory cancers); and symptoms with a diverse cancer site case-mix (e.g. fatigue). The cancer site case-mix of certain symptoms varied by sex.

CONCLUSION

We detailed associations between presenting symptoms and cancer sites in a large, representative population-based sample of cancer patients. The findings can guide choice of symptoms for inclusion in awareness campaigns, and diagnostic investigation strategies post-presentation when cancer is suspected. They can inform the updating of clinical practice recommendations for specialist referral encompassing a broader range of cancer sites per symptom.

Cancer Diagnoses After Recent Weight Loss

Importance

Weight loss is common in primary care. Among individuals with recent weight loss, the rates of cancer during the subsequent 12 months are unclear compared with those without recent weight loss.

Objective

To determine the rates of subsequent cancer diagnoses over 12 months among health professionals with weight loss during the prior 2 years compared with those without recent weight loss.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective cohort analysis of females aged 40 years or older from the Nurses' Health Study who were followed up from June 1978 until June 30, 2016, and males aged 40 years or older from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study who were followed up from January 1988 until January 31, 2016.

Exposure

Recent weight change was calculated from the participant weights that were reported biennially. The intentionality of weight loss was categorized as high if both physical activity and diet quality increased, medium if only 1 increased, and low if neither increased.

Main Outcome and Measures

Rates of cancer diagnosis during the 12 months after weight loss.

Results

Among 157 474 participants (median age, 62 years [IQR, 54-70 years]; 111 912 were female [71.1%]; there were 2631 participants [1.7%] who self-identified as Asian, Native American, or Native Hawaiian; 2678 Black participants [1.7%]; and 149 903 White participants [95.2%]) and during 1.64 million person-years of follow-up, 15 809 incident cancer cases were identified (incident rate, 964 cases/100 000 person-years). During the 12 months after reported weight change, there were 1362 cancer cases/100 000 person-years among all participants with recent weight loss of greater than 10.0% of body weight compared with 869 cancer cases/100 000 person-years among those without recent weight loss (between-group difference, 493 cases/100 000 person-years [95% CI, 391-594 cases/100 000 person-years]; P < .001). Among participants categorized with low intentionality for weight loss, there were 2687 cancer cases/100 000 person-years for those with weight loss of greater than 10.0% of body weight compared with 1220 cancer cases/100 000 person-years for those without recent weight loss (between-group difference, 1467 cases/100 000 person-years [95% CI, 799-2135 cases/100 000 person-years]; P < .001). Cancer of the upper gastrointestinal tract (cancer of the esophagus, stomach, liver, biliary tract, or pancreas) was particularly common among participants with recent weight loss; there were 173 cancer cases/100 000 person-years for those with weight loss of greater than 10.0% of body weight compared with 36 cancer cases/100 000 person-years for those without recent weight loss (between-group difference, 137 cases/100 000 person-years [95% CI, 101-172 cases/100 000 person-years]; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Health professionals with weight loss within the prior 2 years had a significantly higher risk of cancer during the subsequent 12 months compared with those without recent weight loss. Cancer of the upper gastrointestinal tract was particularly common among participants with recent weight loss compared with those without recent weight loss.

A systematic review of the impact of postoperative aerobic exercise training in patients undergoing surgery for intra-abdominal cancers

INTRODUCTION

Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programmes which advocate early mobility after surgery have improved immediate clinical outcomes for patients undergoing abdominal cancer resections with curative intent. However, the impact of continued physical activity on patient-related outcomes and functional recovery is not well defined. The aim of this review was to assess the impact of postoperative aerobic exercise training, either alone or in conjunction with another exercise modality, on patients who have had surgery for intra-abdominal cancer.

METHODS

A literature search was performed of electronic journal databases. Eligible papers needed to report an outcome of aerobic capacity in patients older than 18 years of age, who underwent cancer surgery with curative intent and participated in an exercise programme (not solely ERAS) that included an aerobic exercise component starting at any point in the postoperative pathway up to 12 weeks.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were deemed eligible for inclusion consisting of two inpatient, one mixed inpatient/outpatient and eight outpatient studies. Meta-analysis of four outpatient studies, each reporting change in 6-min walk test (6MWT), showed a significant improvement in 6MWT with exercise (MD 74.92 m, 95% CI 48.52-101.31 m). The impact on health-related quality of life was variable across studies.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative exercise confers benefits in improving aerobic function post surgery and can be safely delivered in various formats (home-based or group/supervised).

A taxonomy of early diagnosis research to guide study design and funding prioritisation

Researchers and research funders aiming to improve diagnosis seek to identify if, when, where, and how earlier diagnosis is possible. This has led to the propagation of research studies using a wide range of methodologies and data sources to explore diagnostic processes. Many such studies use electronic health record data and focus on cancer diagnosis. Based on this literature, we propose a taxonomy to guide the design and support the synthesis of early diagnosis research, focusing on five key questions: Do healthcare use patterns suggest earlier diagnosis could be possible? How does the diagnostic process begin? How do patients progress from presentation to diagnosis? How long does the diagnostic process take? Could anything have been done differently to reach the correct diagnosis sooner? We define families of diagnostic research study designs addressing each of these questions and appraise their unique or complementary contributions and limitations. We identify three further questions on relationships between the families and their relevance for examining patient group inequalities, supported with examples from the cancer literature. Although exemplified through cancer as a disease model, we recognise the framework is also applicable to non-neoplastic disease. The proposed framework can guide future study design and research funding prioritisation.

Colorectal cancer in symptomatic patients: How to improve the diagnostic pathway

Even in countries with national screening programmes for colorectal cancer, most cancers are identified after the patient has developed symptoms. The patients present these symptoms usually to primary care, or in some countries to specialist care. In either healthcare setting, the clinician has to consider cancer to be a possibility, then to perform triage investigations, followed by definitive investigation, usually by colonoscopy. This apparently simple pathway is not simple: most symptoms of colorectal cancer are more likely to represent benign disease than cancer, and each of these stages represents selection of patients into a higher-risk pool. This article summarises a symptom-based approach to selection and initial investigation of such patients in primary care. Some special groups need particular attention, including the younger patient, those with an inherited predisposition to cancer, and those with co-morbidities.

Earlier Diagnosis of Pancreatic Cancer: Is It Possible?

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma has a very high mortality rate which has been only minimally improved in the last 30 years. This high mortality is closely related to late diagnosis, which is usually made when the tumor is large and has extensively infiltrated neighboring tissues or distant metastases are already present. This is a paradoxical situation for a tumor that requires nearly 15 years to develop since the first founding mutation. Response to chemotherapy under such late circumstances is poor, resistance is frequent, and prolongation of survival is almost negligible. Early surgery has been, and still is, the only approach with a slightly better outcome. Unfortunately, the relapse percentage after surgery is still very high. In fact, early surgery clearly requires early diagnosis. Despite all the advances in diagnostic methods, the available tools for improving these results are scarce. Serum tumor markers permit a late diagnosis, but their contribution to an improved therapeutic result is very limited. On the other hand, effective screening methods for high-risk populations have not been fully developed as yet. This paper discusses the difficulties of early diagnosis, evaluates whether the available diagnostic tools are adequate, and proposes some simple and not-so-simple measures to improve it.

The underestimated impact of excess body weight on colorectal cancer risk: Evidence from the UK Biobank cohort

BACKGROUND

The association between excess weight and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may have been underestimated due to potential weight loss during pre-clinical sojourn time of CRC. We aimed to investigate this association and the corresponding population attributable fraction (PAF), accounting for prediagnostic weight loss.

METHODS

Data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort were used. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for various periods of follow-up and the corresponding PAF of excess weight were calculated.

RESULTS

During a median of 10.0 years of follow-up, of 453,049 participants, 4794 developed CRC. The excess weight-CRC association became substantially stronger with including increasing lengths of follow-up in the analyses and further excluding the initial years of follow-up. HRs (95% CIs) for overweight and obesity were 1.06 (0.97-1.16) and 1.14 (1.03-1.26) after 7 years of follow-up, 1.13 (1.05-1.21) and 1.23 (1.14-1.33) when including complete follow-up length, and 1.26 (1.12-1.43) and 1.42 (1.24-1.63) when excluding the initial 7 years of follow-up. The corresponding PAFs of excess weight were estimated as 6.8%, 11.3%, and 19.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive consideration of the potential effect of prediagnostic weight loss discloses a much stronger impact of excess body weight on CRC risk than previously assumed.

Multi-cancer early detection test in symptomatic patients referred for cancer investigation in England and Wales (SYMPLIFY): a large-scale, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Analysis of circulating tumour DNA could stratify cancer risk in symptomatic patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a methylation-based multicancer early detection (MCED) diagnostic test in symptomatic patients referred from primary care.

METHODS

We did a multicentre, prospective, observational study at National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites in England and Wales. Participants aged 18 or older referred with non-specific symptoms or symptoms potentially due to gynaecological, lung, or upper or lower gastrointestinal cancers were included and gave a blood sample when they attended for urgent investigation. Participants were excluded if they had a history of or had received treatment for an invasive or haematological malignancy diagnosed within the preceding 3 years, were taking cytotoxic or demethylating agents that might interfere with the test, or had participated in another study of a GRAIL MCED test. Patients were followed until diagnostic resolution or up to 9 months. Cell-free DNA was isolated and the MCED test performed blinded to the clinical outcome. MCED predictions were compared with the diagnosis obtained by standard care to establish the primary outcomes of overall positive and negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. Outcomes were assessed in participants with a valid MCED test result and diagnostic resolution. SYMPLIFY is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN10226380) and has completed follow-up at all sites.

FINDINGS

6238 participants were recruited between July 7 and Nov 30, 2021, across 44 hospital sites. 387 were excluded due to staff being unable to draw blood, sample errors, participant withdrawal, or identification of ineligibility after enrolment. Of 5851 clinically evaluable participants, 376 had no MCED test result and 14 had no information as to final diagnosis, resulting in 5461 included in the final cohort for analysis with an evaluable MCED test result and diagnostic outcome (368 [6·7%] with a cancer diagnosis and 5093 [93·3%] without a cancer diagnosis). The median age of participants was 61·9 years (IQR 53·4-73·0), 3609 (66·1%) were female and 1852 (33·9%) were male. The MCED test detected a cancer signal in 323 cases, in whom 244 cancer was diagnosed, yielding a positive predictive value of 75·5% (95% CI 70·5-80·1), negative predictive value of 97·6% (97·1-98·0), sensitivity of 66·3% (61·2-71·1), and specificity of 98·4% (98·1-98·8). Sensitivity increased with increasing age and cancer stage, from 24·2% (95% CI 16·0-34·1) in stage I to 95·3% (88·5-98·7) in stage IV. For cases in which a cancer signal was detected among patients with cancer, the MCED test's prediction of the site of origin was accurate in 85·2% (95% CI 79·8-89·3) of cases. Sensitivity 80·4% (95% CI 66·1-90·6) and negative predictive value 99·1% (98·2-99·6) were highest for patients with symptoms mandating investigation for upper gastrointestinal cancer.

INTERPRETATION

This first large-scale prospective evaluation of an MCED diagnostic test in a symptomatic population demonstrates the feasibility of using an MCED test to assist clinicians with decisions regarding urgency and route of referral from primary care. Our data provide the basis for a prospective, interventional study in patients presenting to primary care with non-specific signs and symptoms.

FUNDING

GRAIL Bio UK.

Race, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Factors as Determinants of Cachexia Incidence and Outcomes in a Retrospective Cohort of Patients With Gastrointestinal Tract Cancer

PURPOSE

Cachexia is a paraneoplastic syndrome of unintentional adipose and muscle tissue wasting with severe impacts to functionality and quality of life. Although health inequities across minority and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups are known, the role of these factors in cachexia progression is poorly characterized. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between these determinants and cachexia incidence and survival in patients with gastrointestinal tract cancer.

METHODS

Through retrospective chart review from a prospective tumor registry, we established a cohort of 882 patients with gastroesophageal or colorectal cancer diagnosed between 2006 and 2013. Patient race, ethnicity, private insurance coverage, and baseline characteristics were evaluated through multivariate, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression analyses to determine associations with cachexia incidence and survival outcomes.

RESULTS

When controlling for potentially confounding covariates (age, sex, alcohol and tobacco history, comorbidity score, tumor site, histology, and stage), Black (odds ratio [OR], 2.447; P < .0001) and Hispanic (OR, 3.039; P < .0001) patients are at an approximately 150% and 200%, respectively, greater risk of presenting with cachexia than non-Hispanic White patients. Absence of private insurance coverage was associated with elevated cachexia risk (OR, 1.439; P = .0427) compared to privately insured patients. Cox regression analyses with previously described covariates and treatment factors found Black race (hazard ratio [HR], 1.304; P = .0354) to predict survival detriments, while cachexia status did not reach significance (P = .6996).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that race, ethnicity, and insurance play significant roles in cachexia progression and related outcomes that are not accounted for by conventional predictors of health. Disproportionate financial burdens, chronic stress, and limitations of transportation and health literacy represent targetable factors for mitigating these health inequities.

The Impact of Pretreatment Low Body Mass Index on Cause-Specific Mortality in Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oral Cavity

The association between the pretreatment body mass index (BMI) and oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) outcomes is controversial. We aimed to examine the association between BMI and cause-specific mortality due to cancer of the oral cavity and patterns of failure that correlate with increased mortality. We enrolled 2,023 East Asian patients in this multicenter cohort study. We used the cumulative incidence competing risks method and the Fine-Gray model to analyze factors associated with cause-specific mortality, local recurrence, regional metastasis, and distant metastasis as first events. The median follow-up period was 62 mo. The 5-year cause-specific mortality for patients with underweight was 25.7%, which was significantly higher than that for patients with normal weight (12.7%, P < 0.0001). The multivariate model revealed that underweight was an independent risk factor for cause-specific mortality and regional metastasis (P < 0.05). Moreover, patients with underweight displayed a 51% and 55% increased risk of cause-specific mortality and regional metastasis, respectively, compared with their normal weight counterparts. Local recurrence was not associated with the BMI categories; however, the incidence of distant metastasis inversely decreased with BMI value. In summary, being underweight at diagnosis should be considered a high-risk mortality factor for oral SCC.

Progress and priorities in reducing the time to cancer diagnosis

Key developments in early diagnosis research and policy since the publication of the highly cited BJC review "Is increased time to diagnosis and treatment associated with poorer outcomes?" by Neal et al. in 2015 are summarised. Progress achieved since 2015 is described and priorities for further research identified.

Serious disease risk among patients with unexpected weight loss: a matched cohort of over 70 000 primary care presentations

BACKGROUND

Unexpected weight loss (UWL) in patients consulting in primary care presents dilemmas for management because of the broad differential diagnoses associated with UWL. Research on the risks of serious disease among patients with UWL to date has largely taken place in secondary care, limiting generalizability to primary care patients. In this study, we use a large matched cohort study to estimate the risks of 12 serious diseases among patients presenting to primary care with UWL where this was recorded, stratified by age and sex, in order to inform a rational clinical approach to patients presenting with UWL.

METHODS

This was a retrospective matched cohort study using electronic health records (EHRs) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Each patient with UWL (ascertained from EHR coding) was matched to five patients without UWL and followed until the earliest of a diagnosis of the serious disease, date of death, exit from the CPRD database, or end of the study. Observed absolute risks of the 12 serious diseases were estimated as probabilities, and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2012, 70 193 patients in CPRD had at least one record of UWL and were matched with 295 579 patients without UWL. Patients with UWL had significantly higher risk of nearly all serious diseases examined compared with patients without. HRs ranged from 1.43 for congestive heart failure [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.62] to 9.70 for malabsorption (95% CI: 6.81-13.82). The absolute risks of any given serious disease were relatively low (<6% after 1 year). The magnitude and rank order of absolute risks varied by age and sex. Depression was the most common diagnosis among women aged <80 with UWL (3.74% of women aged <60 and 2.46% of women aged 60-79), whereas diabetes was the most common in men <60 with UWL (2.96%) and cancer was the most common in men aged 60 and over with UWL (3.79% of men aged 60-70 and 5.28% of men aged ≥80).

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides new evidence to patients and clinicians about the risks of serious disease among patients presenting with UWL in primary care. Depending on age and sex, the results suggest that workup for UWL should include screening for diabetes, thyroid dysfunction, depression, and dementia. If performed in a timely manner, this workup could be used to triage patients eligible for cancer pathway referral.

A preponderance of gastrointestinal cancer patients transition into cachexia syndrome

BACKGROUND

Cancer cachexia is frequently documented by self-reported, single time-point weight histories. This approach lacks the granularity needed to fully elucidate the progression of cachexia syndrome. This study aimed to longitudinally assess body weight changes pre- and post-cancer diagnosis in gastrointestinal (GI) cancer patients.

METHODS

Body weights and relevant clinical data recorded in the electronic health record 12 months pre- and post-GI cancer (colorectal, gastroesophageal, hepatobiliary and pancreatic) diagnosis were extracted. Weight loss was categorized by the International Consensus Definition for cachexia.

RESULTS

A total of 879 patients were included in the final cohort including patients diagnosed with colorectal (n = 317), hepatocellular (n = 185), biliary (n = 72), pancreatic (n = 186) or gastroesophageal (n = 119) cancer. Stage of disease was equally distributed. Patients without cachexia at diagnosis (n = 608) remained weight stable during the 12 months pre-diagnosis (+0.5 ± 0.5% body weight; P = 0.99). Patients with cachexia at diagnosis (n = 271) remained weight stable 6 to 12 months prior to diagnosis (+0.4 ± 0.8%; P > 0.9999) and lost 8.7 ± 0.6% (P < 0.0001) within the 6 months pre-diagnosis. Patients without cachexia at diagnosis lost more weight post-diagnosis (6.3 ± 0.6%) than patients with cachexia at diagnosis (4.7 ± 1.0%; P = 0.01). Pre-diagnosis weight trajectories did not differ between primary malignancies or stage of disease in patients without or with cachexia at diagnosis (all P ≥ 0.05). Post-diagnosis weight trajectories did differ by primary malignancy (P ≤ 0.0002) and stage (P < 0.0001). In both patients without and with cachexia at diagnosis, colorectal patients lost the least amount of weight post-diagnosis and gastroesophageal patients lost the most amount of weight post-diagnosis. Stage 4 patients without or with cachexia at diagnosis lost the most weight post-diagnosis (P ≤ 0.0003). Regardless of cachexia status at diagnosis, patients lost more weight when treated with systemic therapy (7.1 ± 0.7%; P < 0.0001; n = 419) or radiation therapy (8.4 ± 1.4%; P = 0.02; n = 116) compared to those who did not. Patients who did not have surgery lost more weight post-diagnosis (7.6 ± 1.1%; P < 0.0001; n = 355) compared to those who did have surgery. By 12 months post-diagnosis, 83% of the surviving GI cancer patients in this cohort had transitioned into cachexia syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant weight loss in patients with GI cancer cachexia at diagnosis initiates at least 6 months prior to diagnosis, and most patients will transition into cachexia syndrome post-diagnosis, regardless of pre-diagnosis weight change and stage of disease. These findings punctuate the importance of weight surveillance in cancer detection and earlier palliative interventions post-diagnosis in the GI cancer patient population.

Measured weight loss as a precursor to cancer diagnosis: retrospective cohort analysis of 43 302 primary care patients

BACKGROUND

Unexpected weight loss is a presenting feature of cancer in primary care. Data from primary care are lacking to quantify how much weight loss over what period should trigger further investigation for cancer. This research aimed to quantify cancer diagnosis rates associated with measured weight change in people attending primary care.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health records data linked to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry (Integrated healthcare delivery system in Washington State, United States). Multivariable Cox regression incorporating time varying covariates using splines to model non-linear associations (age, percentage weight change, and weight change interval). Fifty thousand randomly selected patients aged 40 years and over followed for up to 9 years (1 January 2006 to 31 December 2014). Outcome measures are hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) to quantify the association between percentage weight change and cancer diagnosis for all cancers combined, individual cancer sites and stages; percentage risk of cancer diagnosis within 6 months of the end of each weight change episode; and the positive predictive value for cancer diagnosis.

RESULTS

There were 43 302 included in the analysis after exclusions. Over 287 858 patient-years of follow-up, including 24 272 (56.1%) females, 23 980 (55.4%) aged 40 to 59 years, 15 113 (34.9%) 60 to 79 years, and 4209 (9.7%) aged 80 years and over. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for cancer diagnosis in a 60 years old ranged from 1.04 (1.02 to 1.05, P < 0.001) for 1% weight loss to 1.44 (1.23 to 1.68, P < 0.001) for 10%. An independent linear association was observed between percentage weight loss and increasing cancer risk. The absolute risk of cancer diagnosis increased with increasing age (up to 85 years) and as the weight change measurement interval decreased (<1 year). The positive predictive value for a cancer diagnosis within 1 year of ≥5% measured weight loss in a 60 to 69 years old was 3.41% (1.57% to 6.37%) in men and 3.47% (1.68% to 6.29%) in women. The risk of cancer diagnosis was significantly increased for pancreatic, myeloma, gastro-oesophageal, colorectal, breast, stage II and IV cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss is a sign of undiagnosed cancer regardless of the interval over which it occurs. Guidelines should resist giving an arbitrary cut-off for the interval of weight loss and focus on the percentage of weight loss and the patient's age. Future studies should focus on the association between diagnostic evaluation of weight change and risk of cancer mortality.

Body Composition and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

Body composition parameters are not captured by measures of body mass, which may explain inconsistent associations between body weight and prostate cancer (PC) risk. The objective of this systematic review was to characterize the association between fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) parameters and PC risk. A search of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science identified case-control and cohort studies that measured body composition in relation to PC risk. Methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Thirteen observational studies were included, of which 8 were case-control studies (n = 1572 cases, n = 1937 controls) and 5 were prospective cohort studies (n = 7854 incident cases with PC). The NOS score was 5.9 ± 1.1 for case-control studies and 8.4 ± 1.3 for cohort studies. The most common body composition technique was bioelectrical impedance analysis (n = 9 studies), followed by DXA (n = 2), computed tomography (n = 2), air displacement plethysmography (n = 1), and MRI (n = 1). No case-control studies reported differences in %FM between PC cases and controls and no consistent differences in FM or FFM (in kilograms) were observed. Two out of 5 cohort studies reported that higher %FM was associated with lower PC risk. Conversely, 3 cohort studies reported a greater risk of being diagnosed with advanced/aggressive PC with higher FM (expressed in kilograms, %FM, or fat distribution). Two out of 4 studies (both case-control and cohort) found that higher abdominal adipose tissue was associated with increased PC risk. In conclusion, although results were inconsistent, there is some evidence that FM may be negatively associated with total PC risk but positively associated with the risk of advanced/aggressive PC; modest evidence suggests that abdominal adipose tissue may increase the risk of PC. Future work should elucidate unique patterns of FM distribution and PC risk to triage men at risk for developing PC. This study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) database as CRD42019133388.

Identifying a core symptom set triggering radiological and endoscopic investigations for suspected recurrent esophago-gastric cancer: a modified Delphi consensus process

BACKGROUND

There is currently a lack of evidence-based guidelines regarding surveillance for recurrence after esophageal and gastric (OG) cancer surgical resection, and which symptoms should prompt endoscopic or radiological investigations for recurrence. The aim of this study was to develop a core symptom set using a modified Delphi consensus process that should guide clinicians to carry out investigations to look for suspected recurrent OG cancer in previously asymptomatic patients.

METHODS

A web-based survey of 42 questions was sent to surgeons performing OG cancer resections at high volume centers. The first section evaluated the structure of follow-up and the second, determinants of follow-up. Two rounds of a modified Delphi consensus process and a further consensus workshop were used to determine symptoms warranting further investigations. Symptoms with a 75% consensus agreement as suggestive of recurrent cancer were included in the core symptom set.

RESULTS

27 surgeons completed the questionnaires. A total of 70.3% of centers reported standardized surveillance protocols, whereas 3.7% of surgeons did not undertake any surveillance in asymptomatic patients after OG cancer resection. In asymptomatic patients, 40.1% and 25.9% of centers performed routine imaging and endoscopy, respectively. The core set that reached consensus, consisted of eight symptoms that warranted further investigations included; dysphagia to solid food, dysphagia to liquids, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain, regurgitation of foods, unexpected weight loss and progressive hoarseness of voice.

CONCLUSION

There is global variation in monitoring patients after OG cancer resection. Eight symptoms were identified by the consensus process as important in prompting radiological or endoscopic investigation for suspected recurrent malignancy. Further randomized controlled trials are necessary to link surveillance strategies to survival outcomes and evaluate prognostic value.

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound and Magnetic Resonance Enhancement Based on Machine Learning in Cancer Diagnosis in the Context of the Internet of Things Medical System

As an accurate, safe, and effective noninvasive examination method, imaging examination has been widely used in the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of focal liver lesions. Enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS), enhanced CT (CECT), and enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CEMRI) are the most commonly used enhanced imaging methods in clinical practice, all of which can accurately determine the nature of liver lesions. The purpose of this paper is to study the application of contrast-enhanced ultrasound and magnetic resonance enhancement in cancer diagnosis based on the Internet of Things medical system. The basic clinical data, CEUS, and enhanced CT/MRI findings of 120 CHC patients were retrospectively analyzed. The clinicopathological features of CHC patients were investigated by contrast-enhanced ultrasonography and CT/MRI enhanced mode. The diagnostic value of contrast-enhanced ultrasound and enhanced CT/MRI combined with tumor markers in CHC was analyzed. The experimental results showed that the sensitivities of CEUS, enhanced MRI, and their combination in diagnosing CHC were 72.44%, 81.56%, and 93.78%, respectively. This experiment has an important value in the diagnosis of primary liver cancer.

Cultivating Doctors' Gut Feeling: Experience, Temporality and Politics of Gut Feelings in Family Medicine

For the past decade, within family medicine there has been a focus on cultivating doctors gut feelings as 'a way of knowing' in cancer diagnostics. In this paper, building on interviews with family doctors in Oxford shire, UK we explore the embodied and temporal dimensions of clinical reasoning and how the cultivation of doctors' gut feelings is related to hierarchies of medical knowledge, professional training, and doctors' fears of litigation. Also, we suggest that the introduction of gut feeling in clinical practice is an attempt to develop a theory of clinical reasoning that fits the biopolitics of our contemporary. The turn towards predictive medicine and the values introduced by accelerated diagnostic regimes, we conclude, introduce a need for situated and embodied modes of reading bodies. We contribute theoretically by framing our analysis within a sensorial anthropology approach.

Risk of cancer following primary care presentation with fatigue: a population-based cohort study of a quarter of a million patients

BACKGROUND

The management of adults presenting with fatigue presents a diagnostic challenge, particularly regarding possible underlying cancer.

METHODS

Using electronic health records, we examined cancer risk in patients presenting to primary care with new-onset fatigue in England during 2007-2013, compared to general population estimates. We examined variation by age, sex, deprivation, and time following presentation.

FINDINGS

Of 250,606 patients presenting with fatigue, 12-month cancer risk exceeded 3% in men aged 65 and over and women aged 80 and over, and 6% in men aged 80 and over. Nearly half (47%) of cancers were diagnosed within 3 months from first fatigue presentation. Site-specific cancer risk was higher than the general population for most cancers studied, with greatest relative increases for leukaemia, pancreatic and brain cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

In older patients, new-onset fatigue is associated with cancer risk exceeding current thresholds for urgent specialist referral. Future research should consider how risk is modified by the presence or absence of other signs and symptoms. Excess cancer risk wanes rapidly after 3 months, which could inform the duration of a 'safety-netting' period. Fatigue presentation is not strongly predictive of any single cancer, although certain cancers are over-represented; this knowledge can help prioritise diagnostic strategies.

Combining simple blood tests to identify primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation: Clinical risk score development, internal validation, and net benefit analysis

BACKGROUND

Unexpected weight loss (UWL) is a presenting feature of cancer in primary care. Existing research proposes simple combinations of clinical features (risk factors, symptoms, signs, and blood test data) that, when present, warrant cancer investigation. More complex combinations may modify cancer risk to sufficiently rule-out the need for investigation. We aimed to identify which clinical features can be used together to stratify patients with UWL based on their risk of cancer.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data from 63,973 adults (age: mean 59 years, standard deviation 21 years; 42% male) to predict cancer in patients with UWL recorded in a large representative United Kingdom primary care electronic health record between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012. We derived 3 clinical prediction models using logistic regression and backwards stepwise covariate selection: Sm, symptoms-only model; STm, symptoms and tests model; Tm, tests-only model. Fifty imputations replaced missing data. Estimates of discrimination and calibration were derived using 10-fold internal cross-validation. Simple clinical risk scores are presented for models with the greatest clinical utility in decision curve analysis. The STm and Tm showed improved discrimination (area under the curve ≥ 0.91), calibration, and greater clinical utility than the Sm. The Tm was simplest including age-group, sex, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, haemoglobin, platelets, and total white cell count. A Tm score of 5 balanced ruling-in (sensitivity 84.0%, positive likelihood ratio 5.36) and ruling-out (specificity 84.3%, negative likelihood ratio 0.19) further cancer investigation. A Tm score of 1 prioritised ruling-out (sensitivity 97.5%). At this threshold, 35 people presenting with UWL in primary care would be referred for investigation for each person with cancer referred, and 1,730 people would be spared referral for each person with cancer not referred. Study limitations include using a retrospective routinely collected dataset, a reliance on coding to identify UWL, and missing data for some predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that combinations of simple blood test abnormalities could be used to identify patients with UWL who warrant referral for investigation, while people with combinations of normal results could be exempted from referral.

Describing the potential of non-specific symptoms-based pathways for diagnosing less common cancers

BACKGROUND

Although less common cancers account for over half of all cancer diagnoses in England, their relative scarcity and complex presentation, often with non-specific symptoms, means that patients often experience multiple primary care consultations, longer times to diagnosis and poorer clinical outcomes. An urgent referral pathway for non-specific symptoms, the Multidisciplinary Diagnostic Centre (MDC), may address this problem.

AIM

To examine the less common cancers identified during the MDC pilots and consider if such an approach improves the diagnosis of these cancers.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A service evaluation of five MDC pilot projects in England to 31st March 2019.

METHOD

Data items were collected by pilot sites in near-real time, based mainly on the English cancer outcomes and services dataset, with additional project specific items. Simple descriptive and comparative statistics were used, including chi-squared tests for proportions and t-tests for means where appropriate.

RESULTS

From 5,134 referrals, 378 cancers were diagnosed, of which 218 (58%) were less common. Over 30 different less common tumour types were diagnosed within this cohort. 23% of MDC patients with less common cancers had ≥3 more GP consultations before referral and, at programme level, a median time of 57 days was recorded from GP urgent referral to treatment for these tumour types.

CONCLUSION

A non-specific symptomatic referral route diagnoses a broad range of less common cancers, and can support primary care case management for patients with symptoms of possible cancer that do not qualify for a site-specific urgent referral.

Individual inflammatory marker abnormalities or inflammatory marker scores to identify primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation?

Background

Combinations of inflammatory markers are used as prognostic scores in cancer patients with cachexia. We investigated whether they could also be used to prioritise patients attending primary care with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation.

Methods

We used English primary care electronic health records data linked to cancer registry data from 12,024 patients with coded unexpected weight loss. For each individual inflammatory marker and score we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, positive predictive value (PPV) and the area under the curve along with 95% confidence intervals for a cancer diagnosis within six months.

Results

The risk of cancer associated with two abnormal inflammatory markers combined in a score was higher than the risk associated with individual inflammatory marker abnormalities. However, the risk of cancer in weight loss associated with individual abnormalities, notably a raised C-reactive protein, was sufficient to trigger further investigation for cancer under current NICE guidelines.

Conclusions

If scores including pairs of inflammatory marker abnormalities were to be used, in preference to individual abnormalities, fewer people would be investigated to diagnose one cancer with fewer false positives, but fewer people with cancer would be diagnosed overall.

CASNET2: evaluation of an electronic safety netting cancer toolkit for the primary care electronic health record: protocol for a pragmatic stepped-wedge RCT

INTRODUCTION

Safety-netting in primary care is the best practice in cancer diagnosis, ensuring that patients are followed up until symptoms are explained or have resolved. Currently, clinicians use haphazard manual solutions. The ubiquitous use of electronic health records provides an opportunity to standardise safety-netting practices.A new electronic safety-netting toolkit has been introduced to provide systematic ways to track and follow up patients. We will evaluate the effectiveness of this toolkit, which is embedded in a major primary care clinical system in England:Egerton Medical Information System(EMIS)-Web.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a stepped-wedge cluster RCT in 60 general practices within the RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network. Groups of 10 practices will be randomised into the active phase at 2-monthly intervals over 12 months. All practices will be activated for at least 2 months. The primary outcome is the primary care interval measured as days between the first recorded symptom of cancer (within the year prior to diagnosis) and the subsequent referral to secondary care. Other outcomes include referrals rates and rates of direct access cancer investigation.Analysis of the clustered stepped-wedge design will model associations using a fixed effect for intervention condition of the cluster at each time step, a fixed effect for time and other covariates, and then include a random effect for practice and for patient to account for correlation between observations from the same centre and from the same participant.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the North West-Greater Manchester West National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (REC Reference 19/NW/0692). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and conferences, and sent to participating practices. They will be published on the University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Primary Care and RCGP RSC websites.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN15913081; Pre-results.

Prioritising primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation: diagnostic accuracy study

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the predictive value of unexpected weight loss (WL) for cancer according to patient's age, sex, smoking status, and concurrent clinical features (symptoms, signs, and abnormal blood test results).

DESIGN

Diagnostic accuracy study.

SETTING

Clinical Practice Research Datalink electronic health records data linked to the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in primary care, England.

PARTICIPANTS

63 973 adults (≥18 years) with a code for unexpected WL from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2012.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cancer diagnosis in the six months after the earliest weight loss code (index date). Codes for additional clinical features were identified in the three months before to one month after the index date. Diagnostic accuracy measures included positive and negative likelihood ratios, positive predictive values, and diagnostic odds ratios.

RESULTS

Of 63 973 adults with unexpected WL, 37 215 (58.2%) were women, 33 167 (51.8%) were aged 60 years or older, and 16 793 (26.3%) were ever smokers. 908 (1.4%) had a diagnosis of cancer within six months of the index date, of whom 882 (97.1%) were aged 50 years or older. The positive predictive value for cancer was above the 3% threshold recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for urgent investigation in male ever smokers aged 50 years or older, but not in women at any age. 10 additional clinical features were associated with cancer in men with unexpected WL, and 11 in women. Positive likelihood ratios in men ranged from 1.86 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.62) for non-cardiac chest pain to 6.10 (3.44 to 10.79) for abdominal mass, and in women from 1.62 (1.15 to 2.29) for back pain to 20.9 (10.7 to 40.9) for jaundice. Abnormal blood test results associated with cancer included low albumin levels (4.67, 4.14 to 5.27) and raised values for platelets (4.57, 3.88 to 5.38), calcium (4.28, 3.05 to 6.02), total white cell count (3.76, 3.30 to 4.28), and C reactive protein (3.59, 3.31 to 3.89). However, no normal blood test result in isolation ruled out cancer. Clinical features co-occurring with unexpected WL were associated with multiple cancer sites.

CONCLUSION

The risk of cancer in adults with unexpected WL presenting to primary care is 2% or less and does not merit investigation under current UK guidelines. However, in male ever smokers aged 50 years or older and in patients with concurrent clinical features, the risk of cancer warrants referral for invasive investigation. Clinical features typically associated with specific cancer sites are markers of several cancer types when they occur with unexpected WL.

Assessing patients at risk of symptomatic-but-as-yet-undiagnosed cancer in primary care using information from patient records

Evidence arising from primary care electronic health records can help to assess the risk of symptomatic-but-as-yet-undiagnosed cancer. Existing evidence and methodological innovations in this field of study hold further promise for improving the diagnostic process and achieving earlier diagnosis in cancer patients.