The impact of catch-up bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical screening outcomes: an observational study from the English HPV primary screening pilot

Opportunities and challenges for human papillomavirus vaccination in China

Current estimates of the HPV infection rate in China vary by geographic region (9.6-23.6%), with two age peaks in prevalence in women ≤20-25 years of age and 50-60 years of age. HPV-16, 52 and 58 are the most commonly-detected HPV genotypes in the Chinese population. In China, five HPV vaccines are licensed and several others are undergoing clinical trials. Multiple RCTs have shown the efficacy and safety of the bvHPV (Cervarix), Escherichia coli-produced bvHPV (Cecolin), Pichia pastoris-produced bvHPV (Walrinvax), qvHPV (Gardasil) and 9vHPV (Gardasil-9) vaccines in Chinese populations, including two studies showing long-term efficacy (≥8 years) for the bvHPV and qvHPV vaccines. Real-world data from China are scarce. Although modeling studies in China show HPV vaccination is cost-effective, uptake and population coverage are relatively low. Various policies have been implemented to raise awareness and increase vaccine coverage, with the long-term aim of eliminating cervical cancer in China.

Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.

Screening outcome of HPV-vaccinated women: Data from the Danish Trial23 cohort study

BACKGROUND

Danish women-who were HPV-vaccinated as girls-are now reaching an age where they are invited to cervical cancer screening. Because of their expected lower cervical cancer risk, we must reassess our screening strategies. We analyzed Danish HPV-vaccinated women's outcomes after the first screening test at age 23.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Our study was embedded in Danish routine cytology-based screening. We conducted an observational study and included women born in 1994, offered the 4-valent HPV vaccine at age 14, and subsequently invited to screening at age 23. Cervical cytology was used for diagnostics and clinical management. Residual material was HPV tested with Cobas® 4800/6800. The most severe histology diagnosis within 795 days of screening was found through linkage with the Danish National Pathology Register. We calculated the number of women undergoing follow-up (repeated testing and/or colposcopy) per detected cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+). A total of 6021 women were screened; 92% were HPV-vaccinated; 12% had abnormal cytology; 35% were high-risk HPV-positive, including 0.9% HPV16/18 positive, and 20% had follow-up. In women that were cytology-abnormal and HPV-positive (Cyt+/HPV+), 610 (98.5%) had been followed up, and 138 CIN2+ cases were diagnosed, resulting in 4.4 (95% CI 3.9-5.2) women undergoing follow-up per detected CIN2+. In contrast to recommendations, 182 (12.2%) cytology-normal and HPV-positive (Cyt-/HPV+) women were followed up within 795 days, and 8 CIN2+ cases were found, resulting in 22.8 (95% CI 13.3-59.3) women undergoing follow-up per detected CIN2+.

CONCLUSION

Overall, HPV prevalence was high in HPV-vaccinated women, but HPV16/18 had largely disappeared. In the large group of cytology-normal and HPV-positive women, 23 had been followed up per detected CIN2+ case. Our data indicated that primary HPV screening of young HPV-vaccinated women would require very effective triage methods to avoid an excessive follow-up burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Trial registration number: NCT0304955.

Predictable changes in the accuracy of human papillomavirus tests after vaccination: review with implications for performance monitoring in cervical screening

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is changing the performance of cytology as a cervical screening test, but its effect on HPV testing is unclear. We review the effect of HPV16/18 vaccination on the epidemiology and the detection of HPV infections and high-grade cervical lesions (CIN2+) to evaluate the likely direction of changes in HPV test accuracy. The reduction in HPV16/18 infections and cross-protection against certain non-16/18 high-risk genotypes, most notably 31, 33, and/or 45, will likely increase the test's specificity but decrease its positive predictive value (PPV) for CIN2+. Post-vaccination viral unmasking of non-16/18 genotypes due to fewer HPV16 co-infections might reduce the specificity and the PPV for CIN2+. Post-vaccination clinical unmasking exposing a higher frequency of CIN2+ related to non-16/18 high-risk genotypes is likely to increase the specificity and the PPV of HPV tests. The effect of HPV16/18 vaccination on HPV test sensitivity is difficult to predict based on these changes alone. Programmes relying on HPV detection for primary screening should monitor the frequency of false-positive and false-negative tests in vaccinated (younger) vs. unvaccinated (older) cohorts, to assess the outcomes and performance of their service.

Sociodemographics, behaviour and knowledge of first South African HPV-vaccine recipients

BACKGROUND

 Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary cause of cervical cancer and is one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted infections worldwide. Primary prevention strategies target reducing HPV acquisition through vaccination, limiting exposure (e.g. delayed sexual debut, barrier contraception) and health education focusing on sexual behaviour and tobacco use.

METHODS

 The ImmunoVACCS study, conducted from 2019 to 2022 in two provinces in South Africa, examined sociodemographic characteristics, sexual practices, and knowledge of cervical cancer and the HPV vaccine among young female vaccine recipients. It encompassed participants from the previously conducted vaccine implementation trials, VACCS 1 and VACCS 2 (2011-2014). Recruitment involved telephonic contact with eligible potential participants. Data were collected through self-administered questionnaires.

RESULTS

 One hundred and eleven participants took part in the current study (median age: 20 years; age range: 16-22 years). Most sexually active participants had their first engagement in secondary school (96.2%), and 77.2% used contraception during their last sexual activity. Knowledge gaps were evident, with only 13.5% recognising cervical cancer's cervix origin and 3.6% attributing it to a virus. Despite this, 70.3% had heard of a vaccine for cervical cancer. Less than half knew about the importance of regular Pap smears (49.5%), vaccine protection (44.1%) or condom use (20.7%) against HPV and cervical cancer.

CONCLUSION

 The current study demonstrates that young women still lack complete information on cervical cancer and its risk factors even after receiving health education linked with vaccination.Contribution: This study underscores the necessity of ongoing education about HPV, its risks and preventive measures among young women to combat cervical cancer.

Staged design recommendations for validating relative sensitivity of self-sample human papillomavirus tests for cervical screening

OBJECTIVES

To ensure that the emerging methods for human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on self-collected samples in cervical screening are evaluated robustly.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We assess paired study designs for relative sensitivity of self-collected vs. traditional clinician-collected samples in detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

RESULTS

Designs considered are (D1) both samples at screening, with clinical actions triggered by HPV positivity; (D2) offering a self-sample test to clinician-collected HPV-positive women; (D3) as D2 but using a repeat clinician-sample as comparator; (D4) offering a choice of self- vs. clinician-sampling, and the alternative test in HPV-positive women; (D5) paired samples at referral appointment. D1 is simple to analyze but requires the largest sample size and referral of self-sample positive, clinician-sample negative women. D2 requires a much smaller sample size, and no change to clinical practice, and could be used to rule-in a test because estimates are conservative (against self-sampling). D3 mitigates this bias but requires a second clinician sample. D4 is only manageable where self-sampling already occurs. The liberal D5 might be used to rule-out a self-sampling test.

CONCLUSION

A universal recommendation for an optimal study design is challenging. Staged validation might be useful with D5 as a gatekeeper for D1-D4.

Clinical impact of age‑specific distribution of combination patterns of cytology and high‑risk HPV status on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more

To the best of our knowledge, the present study is the first to elucidate the significance of cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) status in different age groups for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2, CIN3 and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). There were 12 combinations based on cytology and hrHPV status [cytology: Atypical squamous cells (ASC) of undetermined significance, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, ASC not excluding high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and HSIL; hrHPV status: HPV16/18-positive (16/18+), hrHPV positive for subtypes other than 16/18 (others+) and hrHPV-negative (hrHPV-)]. All patients were categorized into four groups based on age (18-29, 30-39, 40-49 and ≥50 years). For patients with CIN2, CIN3 and SCC (CIN2+) (n=107), the distribution of cytology and hrHPV was investigated in each age group. In addition, for all patients (n=446), the occurrence of CIN2+ in each of the 12 combinations was investigated in each age group. In the 18-29-year age group, the most common combination was HSIL and 16/18+, followed by HSIL and others+, which accounted for 73% of CIN2+ cases. The occurrence of HSIL and 16/18+ decreased with increasing age, and no cases occurred in the 50-year age group. In the 18-29-year age group, all patients with HSIL and 16/18+ were diagnosed with CIN2+. CIN2+ was predominantly detected in patients with HSIL in the 18-29-year age group, as well as hrHPV- and others+. This definite distinction was not observed in any other age group. For CIN2+, the distribution patterns of cytology and hrHPV status combinations varied significantly among different age groups. Accordingly, the clinical impact of the combination of cytological findings and hrHPV status can vary among age groups.

An Updated Analysis of the Impact of HPV Vaccination Based on Long-term Effectiveness in the Netherlands

INTRODUCTION

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the most effective strategy to protect women from cervical cancer. Three HPV vaccines are currently licensed in Europe and, although they are generally supported by favorable health economic outcomes, current models fall short in predicting vaccination benefits. Here, we aim to re-evaluate the health benefits of HPV vaccination, using updated long-term effectiveness data and emphasizing quality of life losses related to pre-cancer disease and treatment.

METHODS

We used a static Markov model that compared "only screening" (includes unvaccinated girls) and "vaccination" (assumes 100% vaccination coverage with the bivalent HPV vaccine). A lifetime cohort of 100,000 uninfected 12-year-old girls was included, in which the number of cases with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher/3 (CIN2+, CIN3), cervical cancer, and cervical cancer deaths per scenario were determined. Furthermore, the reduction in major excisional procedures, the preterm deliveries averted, and the related gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) due to vaccination were estimated.

RESULTS

The bivalent vaccine showed larger reductions in CIN2+, CIN3, cervical cancer cases, cervical cancer deaths, and major excisional treatments, after including long-term efficacy and effectiveness data, compared to previous data. Moreover, we observed an increased amount of QALYs gained due to prevention of major excisional treatment and the negative side effects related to it.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated health economic models for HPV vaccination, using updated and long-term effectiveness data and including prevention of treatment-related side effects, demonstrate a substantial additional positive effect on vaccination outcomes. Indeed, extrapolation of the bivalent HPV vaccine's updated long-term effectiveness data against HPV-related cervical diseases shows that the positive effects of vaccination may be more substantial than previously estimated. There is a graphical abstract available for this article.

Recent Developments in Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccinology

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is causally associated with 5% of cancers, including cancers of the cervix, penis, vulva, vagina, anus and oropharynx. The most carcinogenic HPV is HPV-16, which dominates the types causing cancer. There is also sufficient evidence that HPV types 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58 and 59 cause cervical cancer. The L1 protein, which, when assembled into virus-like particles, induces HPV-type-specific neutralising antibodies, forms the basis of all commercial HPV vaccines. There are six licensed prophylactic HPV vaccines: three bivalent, two quadrivalent and one nonavalent vaccine. The bivalent vaccines protect from HPV types 16 and 18, which are associated with more than 70% of cervical cancers. Prophylactic vaccination targets children before sexual debut, but there are now catch-up campaigns, which have also been shown to be beneficial in reducing HPV infection and disease. HPV vaccination of adults after treatment for cervical lesions or recurrent respiratory papillomatosis has impacted recurrence. Gender-neutral vaccination will improve herd immunity and prevent infection in men and women. HPV vaccines are immunogenic in people living with HIV, but more research is needed on the long-term impact of vaccination and to determine whether further boosters are required.

Managing an extension of screening intervals: Avoiding boom and bust in health care workloads

Extending screening intervals in ongoing cancer screening programmes can lead to challenging year-on-year variations in the number of screening tests. We explored how such variation could be diminished with a managed transition to the extended interval. We defined three extension scenarios: immediate extension for the entire target population; stepped transition by birth cohort; and gradual transition by reducing the number of available screening appointments. These were compared to a situation in which the interval remains unchanged in a demographic model covering a 15-year period. The model was populated with observed parameters from England, a real-world setting recommending cervical screening with 3-year intervals at age 25-49 and 5-year intervals at age 50-64. Informed by typical changes currently considered by several European programmes including the programme in England, we explored the effect on screening test numbers of an extension of the 3-year interval to 5 years for women younger than 50. All three extension scenarios resulted in similar cumulative numbers of screening tests, which were about 30% lower compared to a situation in which the interval would remain unchanged. However, the year-on-year variation in the number of screening tests varied between the scenarios. This variation was around 4-fold for the immediate scenario. In the stepped scenario, the yearly numbers could differ by around 20%, whereas in the gradual scenario they were virtually constant. A managed interval extension, transitioning different groups of the target population at different times, can substantially reduce the yearly variation in screening workload without increasing the total number of screening tests in the long term.

Supporting the implementation of new healthcare technologies by investigating generalisability of pilot studies using area-level statistics

BACKGROUND

Implementation of new technologies into national health care systems requires careful capacity planning. This is sometimes informed by data from pilot studies that implement the technology on a small scale in selected areas. A critical consideration when using implementation pilot studies for capacity planning in the wider system is generalisability. We studied the feasibility of using publicly available national statistics to determine the degree to which results from a pilot might generalise for non-pilot areas, using the English human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening pilot as an exemplar.

METHODS

From a publicly available source on population indicators in England ("Public Health Profiles"), we selected seven area-level indicators associated with cervical cancer incidence, to produce a framework for post-hoc pilot generalisability analysis. We supplemented these data by those from publicly available English Office for National Statistics modules. We compared pilot to non-pilot areas, and pilot regimens (pilot areas using the previous standard of care (cytology) vs. the new screening test (HPV)). For typical process indicators that inform real-world capacity planning in cancer screening, we used standardisation to re-weight the values directly observed in the pilot, to better reflect the wider population. A non-parametric quantile bootstrap was used to calculate 95% confidence intervals (CI) for differences in area-weighted means for indicators.

RESULTS

The range of area-level statistics in pilot areas covered most of the spectrum observed in the wider population. Pilot areas were on average more deprived than non-pilot areas (average index of multiple deprivation 24.8 vs. 21.3; difference: 3.4, 95% CI: 0.2-6.6). Participants in HPV pilot areas were less deprived than those in cytology pilot areas, matching area-level statistics. Differences in average values of the other six indicators were less pronounced. The observed screening process indicators showed minimal change after standardisation for deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

National statistical sources can be helpful in establishing the degree to which the types of areas outside pilot studies are represented, and the extent to which they match selected characteristics of the rest of the health care system ex-post. Our analysis lends support to extrapolation of process indicators from the HPV screening pilot across England.

The Human Papillomavirus Infection Characteristics for Patients with Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia in Yunnan, China: A Sampling Survey Analysis

Objective

This study aimed to analyze the status of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections in women in Yunnan in the south of China and their correlation with the grade of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN).

Methods

A total of 281 patients with CIN and HPV infection, diagnosed at Kunming Kingmed Institute for Clinical Laboratory between January 2019 and June 2021, were enrolled as the subjects of the study and underwent HPV genotyping and cervical histopathology.

Results

The mean age of the 281 patients was 42.3 years, and the median age was 42 years. There were 79 patients in the low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) group, and 202 patients in the high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) group. The proportion of 30-45 years old in HSIL group was 58%. Overall, single infections accounted for 76%, and HR-HPV infections accounted for 90.1%. The most common HR-HPV subtypes in the two CIN groups were almost the same, including HPV16, HPV58 and HPV52. The most common LR-HPV subtype in the two CIN groups was HPV43. There were no significant differences in ethnic and single or multiple infection rates among different CIN groups. Single infection of HPV43 and HPV81 was found in minority HSIL patients.

Conclusion

HPV infection in Yunnan was dominated by single infection and HR-HPV. Patients aged 30 to 45 years were in the high incidence of HSIL, and the most common HR-HPV subtypes were HPV16, HPV58, and HPV52. Single LR-HPV infection exists in minority HSIL patients.