Impact of hypertension stratified by diabetes on the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in Japan: a pooled analysis of data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in Japan study

Lifetime Risk of Incident Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Cardiovascular Disease: The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study

AIM

The constellation of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors greatly impacts the lifetime risk (LTR) of incident CVD, but the LTR has not been thoroughly evaluated in the Japanese population.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study involving a total of 25,896 individuals 40-69 years old without a history of CVD in 1995 (Cohort I) and 1993-1994 (Cohort II) in Japan. CVD risk factors (blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol levels, smoking status, and glucose concentrations) were used to stratify them by risk. The sex-specific LTR of incident coronary heart disease, stroke, atherosclerotic CVD, and total CVD were estimated for participants 45 years old in the 4 risk categories with the cumulative incidence rate, adjusting for the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

We found apparent differences in the LTR of total CVD according to the risk stratification. Individuals with ≥ 2 of the risk factors of blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg or treated, non-HDL cholesterol level ≥ 170 mg/dL or treated, current smoker, and diabetes had substantially higher adjusted LTRs of CVD than those in other groups, with a LTR of 26.5% (95% confidence interval, 24.0%-29.0%) for men and 15.3% (13.1%-17.5%) for women at 45 years. The LTR of incident stroke was the highest among CVDs, and the presence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus strongly influenced the LTR of total CVD.

CONCLUSION

The impact of risk accumulation on LTR of CVD was greater in men, and 1 in 4 men with ≥ 2 major risk factors at 45 years of age developed CVD in their lifetime.

Predicting coronary heart disease in Chinese diabetics using machine learning

Diabetes, a common chronic disease worldwide, can induce vascular complications, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), which is also one of the main causes of human death. It is of great significance to study the factors of diabetic patients complicated with CHD for understanding the occurrence of diabetes/CHD comorbidity. In this study, by analyzing the risk of CHD in more than 300,000 diabetes patients in southwest China, an artificial intelligence (AI) model was proposed to predict the risk of diabetes/CHD comorbidity. Firstly, we statistically analyzed the distribution of four types of features (basic demographic information, laboratory indicators, medical examination, and questionnaire) in comorbidities, and evaluated the predictive performance of three traditional machine learning methods (eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Logistic regression). In addition, we have identified nine important features, including age, WHtR, BMI, stroke, smoking, chronic lung disease, drinking and MSP. Finally, the model produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.701 on the test samples. These findings can provide personalized guidance for early CHD warning for diabetic populations.

Impact of diabetic status and contribution of office and home blood pressure across diabetic status for cardiovascular disease: the J-HOP study

Few studies have investigated whether the prognostic power of home blood pressure (BP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events differs across subjects with different diabetic status. We used the dataset of the J-HOP (Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure) study, which enrolled patients having cardiovascular risks to investigate relationships between home BP and CVD events. We classified the patients as having diabetes mellitus (DM), prediabetes or normal glucose metabolism (NGM) as follows: for DM, a self-reported history of physician-diagnosed DM and/or use of DM medication, a fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL, a casual plasma glucose level ≥200 mg/dL or hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥6.5% (n = 1034); for prediabetes, HbA1c of 5.7-6.4% (n = 1167), and for NGM, those who remained (n = 2024). CVD outcome was defined as coronary artery disease, stroke or heart failure. During a median 6.2 ± 3.8 years of follow-up, 259 CVD events occurred. Analysis found both prediabetes (Unadjusted Hazard ratio [uHR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.95), and DM (uHR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.59-2.85) as risks of CVD compared to NGM. In DM, patients with a 10-mmHg elevation of office systolic BP (SBP) and morning home SBP had 16% and 14% higher risks for CVD events. In the prediabetes group, only an elevated morning home SBP conferred a risk of CVD events (uHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.31), but this association did not hold for the adjusted model. Like DM, prediabetes should be recognized as a risk for CVD events, albeit weakly. Elevated home BP contributes to increased CVD risk in diabetes. Our study demonstrated the impact of prediabetes and diabetes on CVD and the impact of office and home BP on CVD events in each group.

A higher resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular event risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus without known cardiovascular disease

A higher resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between RHR and cardiovascular events in T2DM patients with diabetic retinopathy and without known cardiovascular disease. We analyzed the association between RHR and cardiovascular events, including coronary, cerebral, renal and vascular events or cardiovascular death in T2DM patients with retinopathy and hyperlipidemia without prior cardiovascular events who were enrolled in the EMPATHY study. Data from 4746 patients were analyzed. The median RHR was 76 bpm. Patients were divided into four groups based on their baseline RHR ( < 60, 60-69, 70-79, and ≥80 bpm). Patients with a higher RHR were more likely to be younger and had a higher body mass index, blood pressure value, HbA1c value, and estimated glomerular filtration rate and a lower B-type natriuretic peptide value; they also had a higher proportion of current smoking status, neuropathy, and nephropathy. After adjusting for confounders, including the aforementioned risk factors, a RHR of 70-79 bpm and a RHR ≥ 80 bpm were significantly associated with cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.50, 95% CI 1.03-2.20; and hazard ratio 1.62, 95% CI 1.11-2.36; respectively) compared to a RHR of 60-69 bpm. The analysis using restricted cubic splines indicated that the cardiovascular risk seemed to be similarly high when the RHR range was ≥70 bpm. In conclusion, in T2DM patients with diabetic retinopathy and without known cardiovascular disease, a high RHR, particularly ≥70 bpm, was associated with the risk of cardiovascular events compared to a RHR of 60-69 bpm. High resting heart rate (RHR), particularly ≥70 bpm, was associated with the risk of cardiovascular events compared to RHR 60-69 bpm in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), diabetic retinopathy, and hyperlipidemia, but without known cardiovascular disease.

Annual reports on hypertension research 2020

In 2020, 199 papers were published in Hypertension Research. Many excellent papers have contributed to progress in research on hypertension. Here, our editorial members have summarized eleven topics from published work and discussed current topics in depth. We hope you enjoy our special feature, Annual Reports on Hypertension Research.

Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population

Background

Lifetime risk is an informative estimate for driving lifestyle and behavioral changes especially for young adults. The impact of composite risk factors for cardiovascular disease on lifetime risk stratified by sex has not been investigated in the Japanese population, which has a much lower mortality of coronary heart disease compared with the Western population. We aimed to estimate lifetime risk of death from cardiovascular disease attributable to traditional risk factors.

Methods and Results

We analyzed pooled individual data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in a Japanese cohort study. A modified Kaplan–Meier approach was used to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular death. In total, 41 002 Japanese men and women with 537 126 person‐years of follow‐up were included. The lifetime risk at the index‐age of 45 years for those with optimal risk factors (total cholesterol <4.65 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, absence of diabetes, and absence of smoking habit) was lower compared with the highest risk profile of ≥2 risk factors (6.8% [95% CI, 0%–11.9%] versus 19.4% [16.7%–21.4%] for men and 6.9% [1.2%–11.5%] versus 15.4% [12.6%–18.1%] for women).

Conclusions

The magnitude and the number of risk factors were progressively associated with increased lifetime risk even in individuals in early adulthood who tend to have low short‐term risk. The degree of established cardiovascular risk factors can be converted into lifetime risk. Our findings may be useful for risk communication in the early detection of future cardiovascular disease risk.

Efficacy of intensive lipid-lowering therapy with statins stratified by blood pressure levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and retinopathy: Insight from the EMPATHY study

Intensive lipid-lowering therapy is recommended in individuals exhibiting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with microvascular complications (as high-risk patients), even without known cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, evidence is insufficient to stratify the patients who would benefit from intensive therapy among them. Hypertension is a major risk factor, and uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) is associated with increased CVD risk. We evaluated the efficacy of intensive vs. standard statin therapy for primary CVD prevention among T2DM patients with retinopathy stratified by BP levels. We used the dataset from the EMPATHY study, which compared intensive statin therapy targeting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels of <70 mg/dL and standard therapy targeting LDL-C levels ranging from ≥100 to <120 mg/dL in T2DM patients with retinopathy without known CVD. A total of 4980 patients were divided into BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg (systolic BP ≥ 130 mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥ 80 mmHg, n = 3335) and BP < 130/80 mmHg (n = 1645) subgroups by baseline BP levels. During the median follow-up of 36.8 months, 281 CVD events were observed. Consistent with previous studies, CVD events occurred more frequently in the BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg subgroup than in the BP < 130/80 mmHg subgroup (P < 0.001). In the BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg subgroup, intensive statin therapy was associated with lower CVD risk (HR 0.70, P = 0.015) than standard therapy after adjustment. No such association was observed in the BP < 130/80 mmHg subgroup. The interaction between BP subgroup and statin therapy was significant. In conclusion, intensive statin therapy targeting LDL-C < 70 mg/dL provided benefits in primary CVD prevention when compared with standard therapy among T2DM patients with retinopathy and BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg.