Towards an engineering theory of evolution

Synthetic microbial ecology: engineering habitats for modular consortia

Microbiomes, the complex networks of micro-organisms and the molecules through which they interact, play a crucial role in health and ecology. Over at least the past two decades, engineering biology has made significant progress, impacting the bio-based industry, health, and environmental sectors; but has only recently begun to explore the engineering of microbial ecosystems. The creation of synthetic microbial communities presents opportunities to help us understand the dynamics of wild ecosystems, learn how to manipulate and interact with existing microbiomes for therapeutic and other purposes, and to create entirely new microbial communities capable of undertaking tasks for industrial biology. Here, we describe how synthetic ecosystems can be constructed and controlled, focusing on how the available methods and interaction mechanisms facilitate the regulation of community composition and output. While experimental decisions are dictated by intended applications, the vast number of tools available suggests great opportunity for researchers to develop a diverse array of novel microbial ecosystems.

Relieving metabolic burden to improve robustness and bioproduction by industrial microorganisms

Metabolic burden is defined by the influence of genetic manipulation and environmental perturbations on the distribution of cellular resources. The rewiring of microbial metabolism for bio-based chemical production often leads to a metabolic burden, followed by adverse physiological effects, such as impaired cell growth and low product yields. Alleviating the burden imposed by undesirable metabolic changes has become an increasingly attractive approach for constructing robust microbial cell factories. In this review, we provide a brief overview of metabolic burden engineering, focusing specifically on recent developments and strategies for diminishing the burden while improving robustness and yield. A variety of examples are presented to showcase the promise of metabolic burden engineering in facilitating the design and construction of robust microbial cell factories. Finally, challenges and limitations encountered in metabolic burden engineering are discussed.

Reversions mask the contribution of adaptive evolution in microbiomes

When examining bacterial genomes for evidence of past selection, the results obtained depend heavily on the mutational distance between chosen genomes. Even within a bacterial species, genomes separated by larger mutational distances exhibit stronger evidence of purifying selection as assessed byd N / d S , the normalized ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations. Here, we show that the classical interpretation of this scale-dependence, weak purifying selection, leads to problematic mutation accumulation when applied to available gut microbiome data. We propose an alternative, adaptive reversion model with exactly opposite implications for dynamical intuition and applications ofd N / d S . Reversions that occur and sweep within-host populations are nearly guaranteed in microbiomes due to large population sizes, short generation times, and variable environments. Using analytical and simulation approaches, we show that adaptive reversion can explain thed N / d S decay given only dozens of locally-fluctuating selective pressures, which is realistic in the context of Bacteroides genomes. The success of the adaptive reversion model argues for interpreting low values ofd N / d S obtained from long-time scales with caution, as they may emerge even when adaptive sweeps are frequent. Our work thus inverts the interpretation of an old observation in bacterial evolution, illustrates the potential of mutational reversions to shape genomic landscapes over time, and highlights the importance of studying bacterial genomic evolution on short time scales.

Transfer learning for cross-context prediction of protein expression from 5'UTR sequence

Model-guided DNA sequence design can accelerate the reprogramming of living cells. It allows us to engineer more complex biological systems by removing the need to physically assemble and test each potential design. While mechanistic models of gene expression have seen some success in supporting this goal, data-centric, deep learning-based approaches often provide more accurate predictions. This accuracy, however, comes at a cost - a lack of generalization across genetic and experimental contexts that has limited their wider use outside the context in which they were trained. Here, we address this issue by demonstrating how a simple transfer learning procedure can effectively tune a pre-trained deep learning model to predict protein translation rate from 5' untranslated region (5'UTR) sequence for diverse contexts in Escherichia coli using a small number of new measurements. This allows for important model features learnt from expensive massively parallel reporter assays to be easily transferred to new settings. By releasing our trained deep learning model and complementary calibration procedure, this study acts as a starting point for continually refined model-based sequence design that builds on previous knowledge and future experimental efforts.

Engineering is evolution: a perspective on design processes to engineer biology

Careful consideration of how we approach design is crucial to all areas of biotechnology. However, choosing or developing an effective design methodology is not always easy as biology, unlike most areas of engineering, is able to adapt and evolve. Here, we put forward that design and evolution follow a similar cyclic process and therefore all design methods, including traditional design, directed evolution, and even random trial and error, exist within an evolutionary design spectrum. This contrasts with conventional views that often place these methods at odds and provides a valuable framework for unifying engineering approaches for challenging biological design problems.

Establishing CRISPRi for Programmable Gene Repression and Genome Evolution in Cupriavidus necator

Cupriavidus necator H16 is a "Knallgas" bacterium with the ability to utilize various carbon sources and has been employed as a versatile microbial cell factory to produce a wide range of value-added compounds. However, limited genome engineering, especially gene regulation methods, has constrained its full potential as a microbial production platform. The advent of CRISPR/Cas9 technology has shown promise in addressing this limitation. Here, we developed an optimized CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) system for gene repression in C. necator by expressing a codon-optimized deactivated Cas9 (dCas9) and appropriate single guide RNAs (sgRNAs). CRISPRi was proven to be a programmable and controllable tool and could successfully repress both exogenous and endogenous genes. As a case study, we decreased the accumulation of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHB) via CRISPRi and rewired the carbon fluxes to the synthesis of lycopene. Additionally, by disturbing the expression of DNA mismatch repair gene mutS with CRISPRi, we established CRISPRi-Mutator for genome evolution, rapidly generating mutant strains with enhanced hydrogen peroxide tolerance and robustness in microbial electrosynthesis (MES) system. Our work provides an efficient CRISPRi toolkit for advanced genetic manipulation and optimization of C. necator cell factories for diverse biotechnology applications.

Open-endedness in synthetic biology: A route to continual innovation for biological design

Design in synthetic biology is typically goal oriented, aiming to repurpose or optimize existing biological functions, augmenting biology with new-to-nature capabilities, or creating life-like systems from scratch. While the field has seen many advances, bottlenecks in the complexity of the systems built are emerging and designs that function in the lab often fail when used in real-world contexts. Here, we propose an open-ended approach to biological design, with the novelty of designed biology being at least as important as how well it fulfils its goal. Rather than solely focusing on optimization toward a single best design, designing with novelty in mind may allow us to move beyond the diminishing returns we see in performance for most engineered biology. Research from the artificial life community has demonstrated that embracing novelty can automatically generate innovative and unexpected solutions to challenging problems beyond local optima. Synthetic biology offers the ideal playground to explore more creative approaches to biological design.

Competition and evolutionary selection among core regulatory motifs in gene expression control

Gene products that are beneficial in one environment may become burdensome in another, prompting the emergence of diverse regulatory schemes that carry their own bioenergetic cost. By ensuring that regulators are only expressed when needed, we demonstrate that autoregulation generally offers an advantage in an environment combining mutation and time-varying selection. Whether positive or negative feedback emerges as dominant depends primarily on the demand for the target gene product, typically to ensure that the detrimental impact of inevitable mutations is minimized. While self-repression of the regulator curbs the spread of these loss-of-function mutations, self-activation instead facilitates their propagation. By analyzing the transcription network of multiple model organisms, we reveal that reduced bioenergetic cost may contribute to the preferential selection of autoregulation among transcription factors. Our results not only uncover how seemingly equivalent regulatory motifs have fundamentally different impact on population structure, growth dynamics, and evolutionary outcomes, but they can also be leveraged to promote the design of evolutionarily robust synthetic gene circuits.

Steering and controlling evolution - from bioengineering to fighting pathogens

Control interventions steer the evolution of molecules, viruses, microorganisms or other cells towards a desired outcome. Applications range from engineering biomolecules and synthetic organisms to drug, therapy and vaccine design against pathogens and cancer. In all these instances, a control system alters the eco-evolutionary trajectory of a target system, inducing new functions or suppressing escape evolution. Here, we synthesize the objectives, mechanisms and dynamics of eco-evolutionary control in different biological systems. We discuss how the control system learns and processes information about the target system by sensing or measuring, through adaptive evolution or computational prediction of future trajectories. This information flow distinguishes pre-emptive control strategies by humans from feedback control in biotic systems. We establish a cost-benefit calculus to gauge and optimize control protocols, highlighting the fundamental link between predictability of evolution and efficacy of pre-emptive control.

DRAGON: Harnessing the power of DNA repair for accelerating genome evolution in Corynebacterium glutamicum

Hypermutation is a robust phenotype characterized by high elevation of spontaneous mutation rates, which has been shown to facilitate rapid adaptation to the stressful environments by hitchhiking with favorable mutations. Accumulating evidence argues that deficient DNA repair can give rise to hypermutation events in bacteria. Here, we provided a comprehensive survey of DNA repair systems to identify promising targets ensuring high DNA fidelity in Corynebacterium glutamicum. Four effective DNA repair factors, including nucS, tag, xpb, and dinP, were found to be strongly associated with the occurrence of hypermutable phenotypes, and these targets were then engineered to establish a CRISPRi-based all-in-one plasmid system for genome mutagenesis. On the basis of these findings, we presented a novel evolutionary engineering method named "DNA repair-assisted genome evolution (DRAGON)". As a proof-of-concept, DRAGON strategy was successfully applied to facilitate rapid acquisition of microbial robustness in C. glutamicum, such as increased tolerances towards kanamycin, acidic pH and high L-serine, showing its promise and potential for rapid strain improvement. Overall, our study will offer new insights into the understanding of DNA repair and evolutionary adaptation in C. glutamicum.

Engineering biology in the face of uncertainty

Combining engineering and biology surely must be a route to delivering solutions to the world's most pressing problems in depleting resources, energy and the environment. Engineers and biologists have long recognized the power in coupling their disciplines and have evolved a healthy variety of approaches to realizing technologies. Yet recently, there has been a movement to narrow the remit of engineering biology. Its definition as 'the application of engineering principles to the design of biological systems' ought to encompass a broad church. However, the emphasis is firmly on construction '…of novel biological devices and systems from standardized artificial parts' within cells. Thus, engineering biology has become synonymous with synthetic biology, despite the many longstanding technologies that use natural microbial communities. The focus on the nuts and bolts of synthetic organisms may be deflecting attention from the significant challenge of delivering solutions at scale, which cuts across all engineering biology, synthetic and natural. Understanding, let alone controlling, every component of an engineered system is an unrealistic goal. To realize workable solutions in a timely manner we must develop systematic ways of engineering biology in the face of the uncertainties that are inherent in biological systems and that arise through lack of knowledge.

Synthetic Biology─High Time to Deliver?

Synthetic biology (SynBio) has attracted like no other recent development the attention not only of Life Science researchers and engineers but also of intellectuals, technology think-tanks, and private and public investors. This is largely due to its promise to propel biotechnology beyond its traditional realms in medicine, agriculture, and environment toward new territories historically dominated by the chemical and manufacturing industries─but now claimed to be amenable to complete biologization. For this to happen, it is crucial for the field to remain true to its foundational engineering drive, which relies on mathematics and quantitative tools to construct practical solutions to real-world problems. This article highlights several SynBio themes that, in our view, come with somewhat precarious promises that need to be tackled. First, SynBio must critically examine whether enough basic information is available to enable the design or redesign of life processes and turn biology from a descriptive science into a prescriptive one. Second, unlike circuit boards, cells are built with soft matter and possess inherent abilities to mutate and evolve, even without external cues. Third, the field cannot be presented as the one technical solution to many grave world problems and so must avoid exaggerated claims and hype. Finally, SynBio should pay heed to public sensitivities and involve social science in its development and growth, and thus change the technology narrative from sheer domination of the living world to conversation and win-win partnership.

Modelling genetic stability in engineered cell populations

Predicting the evolution of engineered cell populations is a highly sought-after goal in biotechnology. While models of evolutionary dynamics are far from new, their application to synthetic systems is scarce where the vast combination of genetic parts and regulatory elements creates a unique challenge. To address this gap, we here-in present a framework that allows one to connect the DNA design of varied genetic devices with mutation spread in a growing cell population. Users can specify the functional parts of their system and the degree of mutation heterogeneity to explore, after which our model generates host-aware transition dynamics between different mutation phenotypes over time. We show how our framework can be used to generate insightful hypotheses across broad applications, from how a device's components can be tweaked to optimise long-term protein yield and genetic shelf life, to generating new design paradigms for gene regulatory networks that improve their functionality.

Minimal Out-of-Equilibrium Metabolism for Synthetic Cells: A Membrane Perspective

Life-like systems need to maintain a basal metabolism, which includes importing a variety of building blocks required for macromolecule synthesis, exporting dead-end products, and recycling cofactors and metabolic intermediates, while maintaining steady internal physical and chemical conditions (physicochemical homeostasis). A compartment, such as a unilamellar vesicle, functionalized with membrane-embedded transport proteins and metabolic enzymes encapsulated in the lumen meets these requirements. Here, we identify four modules designed for a minimal metabolism in a synthetic cell with a lipid bilayer boundary: energy provision and conversion, physicochemical homeostasis, metabolite transport, and membrane expansion. We review design strategies that can be used to fulfill these functions with a focus on the lipid and membrane protein composition of a cell. We compare our bottom-up design with the equivalent essential modules of JCVI-syn3a, a top-down genome-minimized living cell with a size comparable to that of large unilamellar vesicles. Finally, we discuss the bottlenecks related to the insertion of a complex mixture of membrane proteins into lipid bilayers and provide a semiquantitative estimate of the relative surface area and lipid-to-protein mass ratios (i.e., the minimal number of membrane proteins) that are required for the construction of a synthetic cell.

Design and Analysis of Massively Parallel Reporter Assays Using FORECAST

Machine learning is revolutionizing molecular biology and bioengineering by providing powerful insights and predictions. Massively parallel reporter assays (MPRAs) have emerged as a particularly valuable class of high-throughput technique to support such algorithms. MPRAs enable the simultaneous characterization of thousands or even millions of genetic constructs and provide the large amounts of data needed to train models. However, while the scale of this approach is impressive, the design of effective MPRA experiments is challenging due to the many factors that can be varied and the difficulty in predicting how these will impact the quality and quantity of data obtained. Here, we present a computational tool called FORECAST, which can simulate MPRA experiments based on fluorescence-activated cell sorting and subsequent sequencing (commonly referred to as Flow-seq or Sort-seq experiments), as well as carry out rigorous statistical estimation of construct performance from this type of experimental data. FORECAST can be used to develop workflows to aid the design of MPRA experiments and reanalyze existing MPRA data sets.

A theory of rapid evolutionary change explaining the de novo appearance of megakaryocytes and platelets in mammals

Platelets are found only in mammals. Uniquely, they have a log Gaussian volume distribution and are produced from megakaryocytes, large cells that have polyploid nuclei. In this Hypothesis, we propose that a possible explanation for the origin of megakaryocytes and platelets is that, ∼220 million years ago, an inheritable change occurred in a mammalian ancestor that caused the haemostatic cell line of the animal to become polyploid. This inheritable change occurred specifically in the genetic programme of the cell lineage from which the haemostatic cell originated and led, because of increase in cell size, to its fragmentation into cytoplasmic particles (platelets) in the pulmonary circulatory system, as found in modern mammals. We hypothesize that these fragments originating from the new large haemostatic polyploid cells proved to be more efficient at stopping bleeding, and, therefore, the progeny of this ancestor prospered through natural selection. We also propose experimental strategies that could provide evidence to support this hypothesis.

A new framework for host-pathogen interaction research

COVID-19 often manifests with different outcomes in different patients, highlighting the complexity of the host-pathogen interactions involved in manifestations of the disease at the molecular and cellular levels. In this paper, we propose a set of postulates and a framework for systematically understanding complex molecular host-pathogen interaction networks. Specifically, we first propose four host-pathogen interaction (HPI) postulates as the basis for understanding molecular and cellular host-pathogen interactions and their relations to disease outcomes. These four postulates cover the evolutionary dispositions involved in HPIs, the dynamic nature of HPI outcomes, roles that HPI components may occupy leading to such outcomes, and HPI checkpoints that are critical for specific disease outcomes. Based on these postulates, an HPI Postulate and Ontology (HPIPO) framework is proposed to apply interoperable ontologies to systematically model and represent various granular details and knowledge within the scope of the HPI postulates, in a way that will support AI-ready data standardization, sharing, integration, and analysis. As a demonstration, the HPI postulates and the HPIPO framework were applied to study COVID-19 with the Coronavirus Infectious Disease Ontology (CIDO), leading to a novel approach to rational design of drug/vaccine cocktails aimed at interrupting processes occurring at critical host-coronavirus interaction checkpoints. Furthermore, the host-coronavirus protein-protein interactions (PPIs) relevant to COVID-19 were predicted and evaluated based on prior knowledge of curated PPIs and domain-domain interactions, and how such studies can be further explored with the HPI postulates and the HPIPO framework is discussed.

Synthetic evolution of herbicide resistance using a T7 RNAP-based random DNA base editor

A chimeric fusion of T7 RNAP and deaminase edits the DNA under the T7 promoter in plant cells. It directs the continuous synthetic evolution of OsALS to produce variants with herbicide resistance.

Synthetic directed evolution via localized sequence diversification and the simultaneous application of selection pressure is a promising method for producing new, beneficial alleles that affect traits of interest in diverse species; however, this technique has rarely been applied in plants. Here, we designed, built, and tested a chimeric fusion of T7 RNA Polymerase (RNAP) and deaminase to enable the localized sequence diversification of a target sequence of interest. We tested our T7 RNAP–DNA base editor in Nicotiana benthamiana transient assays to target a transgene expressing GFP under the control of the T7 promoter and observed C-to-T conversions. We then targeted the T7 promoter-driven acetolactate synthase sequence that had been stably integrated in the rice genome and generated C-to-T and G-to-A transitions. We used herbicide treatment as selection pressure for the evolution of the acetolactate synthase sequence, resulting in the enrichment of herbicide-responsive residues. We then validated these herbicide-responsive regions in the transgenic rice plants. Thus, our system could be used for the continuous synthetic evolution of gene functions to produce variants with improved herbicide resistance.

The context matrix: Navigating biological complexity for advanced biodesign

Synthetic biology offers many solutions in healthcare, production, sensing and agriculture. However, the ability to rationally engineer synthetic biosystems with predictable and robust functionality remains a challenge. A major reason is the complex interplay between the synthetic genetic construct, its host, and the environment. Each of these contexts contains a number of input factors which together can create unpredictable behaviours in the engineered biosystem. It has become apparent that for the accurate assessment of these contextual effects a more holistic approach to design and characterisation is required. In this perspective article, we present the context matrix, a conceptual framework to categorise and explore these contexts and their net effect on the designed synthetic biosystem. We propose the use and community-development of the context matrix as an aid for experimental design that simplifies navigation through the complex design space in synthetic biology.

Experimental exploration of a ribozyme neutral network using evolutionary algorithm and deep learning

A neutral network connects all genotypes with equivalent phenotypes in a fitness landscape and plays an important role in the mutational robustness and evolvability of biomolecules. In contrast to earlier theoretical works, evidence of large neutral networks has been lacking in recent experimental studies of fitness landscapes. This suggests that evolution could be constrained globally. Here, we demonstrate that a deep learning-guided evolutionary algorithm can efficiently identify neutral genotypes within the sequence space of an RNA ligase ribozyme. Furthermore, we measure the activities of all 2¹⁶ variants connecting two active ribozymes that differ by 16 mutations and analyze mutational interactions (epistasis) up to the 16th order. We discover an extensive network of neutral paths linking the two genotypes and reveal that these paths might be predicted using only information from lower-order interactions. Our experimental evaluation of over 120,000 ribozyme sequences provides important empirical evidence that neutral networks can increase the accessibility and predictability of the fitness landscape.

Neutral networks, which are sets of genotypes connected via single mutations that share the same phenotype, are important for evolvability. Here, the authors provide experimental evidence of a neutral network in an RNA enzyme using a high-throughput assay and deep learning.

The Evolution of Microbial Facilitation: Sociogenesis, Symbiogenesis, and Transition in Individuality

Metabolic cooperation is widespread, and it seems to be a ubiquitous and easily evolvable interaction in the microbial domain. Mutual metabolic cooperation, like syntrophy, is thought to have a crucial role in stabilizing interactions and communities, for example biofilms. Furthermore, cooperation is expected to feed back positively to the community under higher-level selection. In certain cases, cooperation can lead to a transition in individuality, when freely reproducing, unrelated entities (genes, microbes, etc.) irreversibly integrate to form a new evolutionary unit. The textbook example is endosymbiosis, prevalent among eukaryotes but virtually lacking among prokaryotes. Concerning the ubiquity of syntrophic microbial communities, it is intriguing why evolution has not lead to more transitions in individuality in the microbial domain. We set out to distinguish syntrophy-specific aspects of major transitions, to investigate why a transition in individuality within a syntrophic pair or community is so rare. We review the field of metabolic communities to identify potential evolutionary trajectories that may lead to a transition. Community properties, like joint metabolic capacity, functional profile, guild composition, assembly and interaction patterns are important concepts that may not only persist stably but according to thought-provoking theories, may provide the heritable information at a higher level of selection. We explore these ideas, relating to concepts of multilevel selection and of informational replication, to assess their relevance in the debate whether microbial communities may inherit community-level information or not.

Massively parallel characterization of engineered transcript isoforms using direct RNA sequencing

Transcriptional terminators signal where transcribing RNA polymerases (RNAPs) should halt and disassociate from DNA. However, because termination is stochastic, two different forms of transcript could be produced: one ending at the terminator and the other reading through. An ability to control the abundance of these transcript isoforms would offer bioengineers a mechanism to regulate multi-gene constructs at the level of transcription. Here, we explore this possibility by repurposing terminators as 'transcriptional valves' that can tune the proportion of RNAP read-through. Using one-pot combinatorial DNA assembly, we iteratively construct 1780 transcriptional valves for T7 RNAP and show how nanopore-based direct RNA sequencing (dRNA-seq) can be used to characterize entire libraries of valves simultaneously at a nucleotide resolution in vitro and unravel genetic design principles to tune and insulate termination. Finally, we engineer valves for multiplexed regulation of CRISPR guide RNAs. This work provides new avenues for controlling transcription and demonstrates the benefits of long-read sequencing for exploring complex sequence-function landscapes.

A light tunable differentiation system for the creation and control of consortia in yeast

Artificial microbial consortia seek to leverage division-of-labour to optimize function and possess immense potential for bioproduction. Co-culturing approaches, the preferred mode of generating a consortium, remain limited in their ability to give rise to stable consortia having finely tuned compositions. Here, we present an artificial differentiation system in budding yeast capable of generating stable microbial consortia with custom functionalities from a single strain at user-defined composition in space and in time based on optogenetically-driven genetic rewiring. Owing to fast, reproducible, and light-tunable dynamics, our system enables dynamic control of consortia composition in continuous cultures for extended periods. We further demonstrate that our system can be extended in a straightforward manner to give rise to consortia with multiple subpopulations. Our artificial differentiation strategy establishes a novel paradigm for the creation of complex microbial consortia that are simple to implement, precisely controllable, and versatile to use.

paraSBOLv: a foundation for standard-compliant genetic design visualization tools

Diagrams constructed from standardized glyphs are central to communicating complex design information in many engineering fields. For example, circuit diagrams are commonplace in electronics and allow for a suitable abstraction of the physical system that helps support the design process. With the development of the Synthetic Biology Open Language Visual (SBOLv), bioengineers are now positioned to better describe and share their biological designs visually. However, the development of computational tools to support the creation of these diagrams is currently hampered by an excessive burden in maintenance due to the large and expanding number of glyphs present in the standard. Here, we present a Python package called paraSBOLv that enables access to the full suite of SBOLv glyphs through the use of machine-readable parametric glyph definitions. These greatly simplify the rendering process while allowing extensive customization of the resulting diagrams. We demonstrate how the adoption of paraSBOLv can accelerate the development of highly specialized biodesign visualization tools or even form the basis for more complex software by removing the burden of maintaining glyph-specific rendering code. Looking forward, we suggest that incorporation of machine-readable parametric glyph definitions into the SBOLv standard could further simplify the development of tools to produce standard-compliant diagrams and the integration of visual standards across fields.

Forecasting of phenotypic and genetic outcomes of experimental evolution in Pseudomonas protegens

Experimental evolution with microbes is often highly repeatable under identical conditions, suggesting the possibility to predict short-term evolution. However, it is not clear to what degree evolutionary forecasts can be extended to related species in non-identical environments, which would allow testing of general predictive models and fundamental biological assumptions. To develop an extended model system for evolutionary forecasting, we used previous data and models of the genotype-to-phenotype map from the wrinkly spreader system in Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 to make predictions of evolutionary outcomes on different biological levels for Pseudomonas protegens Pf-5. In addition to sequence divergence (78% amino acid and 81% nucleotide identity) for the genes targeted by mutations, these species also differ in the inability of Pf-5 to make cellulose, which is the main structural basis for the adaptive phenotype in SBW25. The experimental conditions were changed compared to the SBW25 system to test if forecasts were extendable to a non-identical environment. Forty-three mutants with increased ability to colonize the air-liquid interface were isolated, and the majority had reduced motility and was partly dependent on the Pel exopolysaccharide as a structural component. Most (38/43) mutations are expected to disrupt negative regulation of the same three diguanylate cyclases as in SBW25, with a smaller number of mutations in promoter regions, including an uncharacterized polysaccharide synthase operon. A mathematical model developed for SBW25 predicted the order of the three main pathways and the genes targeted by mutations, but differences in fitness between mutants and mutational biases also appear to influence outcomes. Mutated regions in proteins could be predicted in most cases (16/22), but parallelism at the nucleotide level was low and mutational hot spot sites were not conserved. This study demonstrates the potential of short-term evolutionary forecasting in experimental populations and provides testable predictions for evolutionary outcomes in other Pseudomonas species.