Economic shocks predict increases in child wasting prevalence

Food prices and the wages of the poor: A cost-effective addition to high-frequency food security monitoring

The affordability of nutritious food for "all people, at all times" is a critically important dimension of food security. Yet surprisingly, timely high-frequency indicators of food affordability are rarely collected in any systematic fashion despite price volatility emerging as major source of food insecurity in the 21st Century. The 2008 global food crisis prompted international agencies to invest heavily in monitoring domestic food prices in low and middle income countries (LMICs). However, food price monitoring is not sufficient for measuring changes in diet affordability; for that, one must also measure changes either in income or in an income proxy. We propose using the wages of unskilled workers as a cheap and sufficiently accurate income proxy, especially for the urban and rural non-farm poor. We first outline alternative measures of "food wage" indices, defined as wages deflated either by consumer food price indices or novel healthy diet cost indices. We then discuss the conceptual strengths and limitations of food wages. Finally, we examine patterns and trends in different types of real food wage series during well-known food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. In Myanmar, the decline in real wages during 2022 closely matches declines in household disposable income. We strongly advocate tracking the wages of the poor as a timely, accurate and cost-effective means of monitoring food affordability for important segments of the world's poor.

A scoping review on tools and methods for trait prioritization in crop breeding programmes

Trait prioritization studies have guided research, development and investment decisions for public-sector crop breeding programmes since the 1970s, but the research design, methods and tools underpinning these studies are not well understood. We used PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols) to evaluate research on trait ranking for major crops over the past 40 years (1980-2023). Data extraction and descriptive analysis on 657 papers show uneven attention to crops, lack of systematic sex disaggregation and regional bias. The lack of standardized trait data taxonomy across studies, and inconsistent research design and data collection practices make cross-comparison of findings impossible. In addition, network mapping of authors and donors shows patterns of concentration and the presence of silos within research areas. This study contributes to the next generation of innovation in trait preference studies to produce more inclusive, demand-driven varietal design that moves beyond trait prioritization focused on productivity and yield.

Effect of a Center-Based Early Childhood Care and Education Program on Child Nutritional Status: A Secondary Analysis of a Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural Sindh, Pakistan

BACKGROUND

High-quality early childhood care and education (ECCE) programs can positively impact children's development. However, as an unintended consequence, ECCE attendance may also affect children's nutritional status.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the effect of a center-based ECCE intervention on child nutritional outcomes in rural Pakistan.

METHODS

This study utilized data from a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial of a center-based ECCE program that trained female youth to run high-quality preschools for children aged 3.5-5.5 y (Youth Leaders for Early Childhood Assuring Children are Prepared for School (LEAPS) program) in rural Sindh, Pakistan. The program did not include any school meals. A total of 99 village clusters were randomized to receive the LEAPS intervention in 3 steps, and repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess the impact on children (age: 4.5-5.5 y) at 4- time points. ITT analyses with multilevel mixed-effect models were used to estimate the effect of the intervention on child anthropometric outcomes.

RESULTS

The analysis included 3858 children with anthropometric data from 4 cross-sectional survey rounds. The LEAPS intervention was found to have a positive effect on child height-for-age z score (mean difference: 0.13 z-scores; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.24). However, there was a negative effect on weight-based anthropometric indicators, -0.29 weight-for-height z score (WHZ) (95% CI: -0.42, -0.15), -0.13 BMI z score (BMIZ) (95% CI: -0.23, -0.03), and -0.16 mid-upper arm circumference-for-age z score MUACZ (95% CI: -0.25, -0.05). An exploratory analysis suggested that the magnitude of the negative effect of LEAPS on WHZ, BMIZ, and weight-for-age z score (WAZ) was greater in the survey round during the COVID-19 lockdown.

DISCUSSION

The LEAPS intervention positively affected child linear growth but had negative effects on multiple weight-based anthropometric measures. ECCE programs in low- and middle-income country settings should evaluate the integration of nutrition-specific interventions (eg school lunch, counseling on healthy diets) and infection control strategies to promote children's healthy growth and development.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY

clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03764436, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03764436.

Nutrition transition, double burden of malnutrition, and urbanization patterns in secondary cities of Bangladesh, Kenya and Rwanda

BACKGROUND

By 2050, approximately 68% of the global population will live in cities, but nutrition data on urban populations of low- and middle-income countries are scarce. Fast growing secondary cities, combining characteristics and hurdles of urban and rural settings, are hotspots for the double burden of malnutrition. The Nutrition in City Ecosystems (NICE) project focuses on 6 secondary cities in Bangladesh, Kenya and Rwanda, to improve health and nutrition, and reduce poverty. To assess the baseline situation and guide future interventions, food insecurity, dietary diversity, nutrition status, and food production and purchasing patterns were explored.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study design, data were collected from urban and peri-urban households of Dinajpur and Rangpur in Bangladesh, Bungoma and Busia in Kenya, and Rubavu and Rusizi in Rwanda. Approximately 1200 households, in neighborhoods prone to malnutrition, were involved from April to June 2021. We assessed Household Food Insecurity Access Score (HFIAS), both current and before COVID-19, Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women (MDD-W), anthropometric measurements, household and socioeconomic information, and questions related to food production and consumer behavior. Further we collected secondary data on low birthweight and anemia during pregnancy.

RESULTS

All cities experienced a substantial increase in food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stunting rates in children under 5 years varied among the cities and ranged from 7.8% in Busia to 46.6% in Rubavu, while half of adult women were overweight (between 42.1% in Rusizi and 55.8% in Bungoma). Furthermore, many women did not consume an adequately diverse diet (MDD-W < 5 for 29.3% in Bangladesh, 47.5% in Kenya, and 67.0% in Rwanda), however many of the urban and peri-urban households were engaged in farming (58-78%).

CONCLUSIONS

The double burden of malnutrition is high in secondary cities and the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated levels of food insecurity. Demand for, and access to, an affordable healthy diverse diet that comprises local, nutritious, and agroecologically produced foods present a pathway for overcoming the complex challenges of malnutrition.

Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries

The 21st Century has been marked by increased volatility in food prices, with global price spikes in 2007-08, 2010-11, and again in 2021-22. The impact of food inflation on the risk of child undernutrition is not well understood, however. This study explores the potential impacts of food inflation on wasting and stunting among 1.27 million pre-school children from 44 developing countries. On average, a 5 percent increase in the real price of food increases the risk of wasting by 9 percent and severe wasting by 14 percent. These risks apply to young infants, suggesting a prenatal pathway, as well as to older children who typically experience a deterioration in diet quality in the wake of food inflation. Male children and children from poor and rural landless households are more severely impacted. Food inflation during pregnancy and the first year after birth also increases the risk of stunting for children 2-5 years of age. This evidence provides a strong rationale for interventions to prevent food inflation and mitigate its impacts on vulnerable children and their mothers.

Higher food prices can reduce poverty and stimulate growth in food production

Food prices spiked sharply in 2007-2008, in 2010-2011 and again in 2021-2022. However, the impacts of these spikes on poverty remain controversial; while food is a large expense for the poor, many poor people also earn income from producing or marketing food, and higher prices should incentivize greater food production. Short-run simulation models assume away production and wage adjustments, and probably underestimate food production by the poor. Here we analyse annual data on poverty rates, real food price changes and food production growth for 33 middle-income countries from 2000 to 2019 based on World Bank poverty measures. Panel regressions show that year-on-year increases in the real price of food predict reductions in the US$3.20-per-day poverty headcount, except in more urban or non-agrarian countries. A plausible explanation is that rising food prices stimulate short-run agricultural supply responses that induce increased demand for unskilled labour and increases in wages.

The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries

The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty and food insecurity. Despite numerous studies and editorials on the risks and challenges of the crisis, there is little quantitative analysis of its consequences for developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure the near-term impacts of the crisis on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 countries. Despite wide variations across countries, results confirm the adverse impacts of the crisis, with a total 27.2 and 22.3 million more people pushed into poverty and hunger, respectively. Agrifood systems and poverty are more vulnerable to rising fuel and fertilizer prices, whereas hunger and diet quality are more affected by higher food prices.

Household behavior and vulnerability to acute malnutrition in Kenya

Anticipating those most at-risk of being acutely malnourished significantly shapes decisions that pertain to resource allocation and intervention in times of food crises. Yet, the assumption that household behavior in times of crisis is homogeneous-that households share the same capacity to adapt to external shocks-ostensibly prevails. This assumption fails to explain why, in a given geographical context, some households remain more vulnerable to acute malnutrition relative to others, and why a given risk factor may have a differential effect across households? In an effort to explore how variation in household behavior influences vulnerability to malnutrition, we use a unique household dataset that spans 23 Kenyan counties from 2016 to 2020 to seed, calibrate, and validate an evidence-driven computational model. We use the model to conduct a series of counterfactual experiments on the relationship between household adaptive capacity and vulnerability to acute malnutrition. Our findings suggest that households are differently impacted by given risk factors, with the most vulnerable households typically being the least adaptive. These findings further underscore the salience of household adaptive capacity, in particular, that adaption is less effective for economic vis-à-vis climate shocks. By making explicit the link between patterns of household behavior and vulnerability in the short- to medium-term, we underscore the need for famine early warning to better account for variation in household-level behavior.

Is Economic Growth Good for Population Health? A Critical Review

A large multidisciplinary literature discusses the relationship between economic growth and population health. The idea that economic growth is good for societies has inspired extensive academic debate, but conclusions have been mixed. To help shed light on the subject, this paper focuses on opportunities for consensus in this large literature. Much scholarship finds that the health-growth relationship varies according to (1) which aspect of "health" is under consideration, (2) shape (e.g., positive linear or logarithmic), (3) issues of timing (e.g., growth over the short or long term), (4) a focus on health inequalities as opposed to population averages, and (5) multivariable relationships with additional factors. After reflecting upon these findings, I propose that economic growth promotes health in some respects, for some countries, and in conjunction with other life-supporting priorities, but does not by itself improve population health generally speaking. I then argue there is already wide, interdisciplinary consensus to support this stance. Moreover, policies focusing exclusively on economic growth threaten harm to both population health and growth, which is to say that political dynamics are also implicated. Yet multivariable approaches can help clarify the bigger picture of how growth relates to health. For moving this literature forward, the best opportunities may involve the simultaneous analysis of multiple factors. The recognition of consensus around these issues would be welcome, and timely.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42650-023-00072-y.

Changes in Child Undernutrition and Overweight in India From 2006 to 2021: An Ecological Analysis of 36 States

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated changes in priority indicators of child growth from 2006 to 2021 and examined the role of human development measures in these changes.

METHODS

We estimated cumulative and annualized changes in state- and district-level child growth indicators using 3 rounds of National Family Health Surveys (2005-2006, 2015-2016, 2019-2021) in 36 states. Outcomes included stunting, underweight, wasting, and overweight. Human development was measured using a principal components analysis of 9 ecological indicators. We contrasted expected versus observed changes in district-level growth outcomes between 2016 and 2021 based on changes in development indicators using 2-way Blinder Oaxaca decomposition.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2021, the prevalence of stunting, underweight, and wasting decreased by 12.3, 10.3, and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, while the prevalence of overweight increased by 1.9 percentage points. The annualized rate of within-state change for stunting was lower from 2016 to 2021 compared with the 2006 to 2016 period, while the rate of change in overweight was higher. Simultaneously, all 9 human development indicators improved between 2006 and 2021. A unit increase between 2016 and 2021 in the human development score predicted a -5.1 percentage point (95% confidence interval=-5.8, -4.4) change in stunting, yet observed stunting declined by just -2.5 percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2016 to 2021, population-level reduction in child stunting has slowed and the rise in child overweight has accelerated, relative to the 10 years preceding this period.

Preventive small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements reduce severe wasting and severe stunting among young children: an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Meta-analyses show that small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) reduce child wasting and stunting. There is little information regarding effects on severe wasting or stunting.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify the effect of SQ-LNS on prevalence of severe wasting (weight-for-length z-score < -3) and severe stunting (length-for-age z-score < -3).

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data from 14 randomized controlled trials of SQ-LNS provided to children 6 to 24 mo of age. We generated study-specific and subgroup estimates of SQ-LNS vs. control and pooled the estimates using fixed-effects models. We used random effects meta-regression to examine study-level effect modifiers. In sensitivity analyses, we examined whether results differed depending on study arm inclusion criteria and types of comparisons.

RESULTS

SQ-LNS provision led to a relative reduction of 31% in severe wasting (Prevalence Ratio, PR 0.69 (0.55, 0.86), n=34,373) and 17% in severe stunting (PR 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.90), n=36,795) at endline. Results were similar in most of the sensitivity analyses but somewhat attenuated when comparisons using passive control arms were excluded: PR 0.74 (0.57, 0.96), n=26,327 for severe wasting and PR 0.88 (0.81, 0.95), n=28,742 for severe stunting. Study-level characteristics generally did not significantly modify the effects of SQ-LNS, but results suggested greater effects of SQ-LNS in sites with greater burdens of wasting or stunting, or with poorer water quality or sanitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Including SQ-LNS in preventive interventions to promote healthy child growth and development is likely to reduce rates of severe wasting and stunting. Registered at www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO as CRD42019146592.