Genomic epidemiology of Delta SARS-CoV-2 during transition from elimination to suppression in Aotearoa New Zealand

Spatial and temporal transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in New Zealand before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute respiratory infection. In 2020, RSV was effectively eliminated from the community in New Zealand due to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) used to control the spread of COVID-19. However, in April 2021, following a brief quarantine-free travel agreement with Australia, there was a large-scale nationwide outbreak of RSV that led to reported cases more than five times higher, and hospitalisations more than three times higher, than the typical seasonal pattern. In this study, we generated 1,471 viral genomes of both RSV-A and RSV-B sampled between 2015 and 2022 from across New Zealand. Using a phylodynamics approach, we used these data to better understand RSV transmission patterns in New Zealand prior to 2020, and how RSV became re-established in the community following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. We found that in 2021, there was a large epidemic of RSV in New Zealand that affected a broader age group range compared to the usual pattern of RSV infections. This epidemic was due to an increase in RSV importations, leading to several large genomic clusters of both RSV-A ON1 and RSV-B BA9 genotypes in New Zealand. However, while a number of importations were detected, there was also a major reduction in RSV genetic diversity compared to pre-pandemic seasonal outbreaks. These genomic clusters were temporally associated with the increase of migration in 2021 due to quarantine-free travel from Australia at the time. The closest genetic relatives to the New Zealand RSV genomes, when sampled, were viral genomes sampled in Australia during a large, off-season summer outbreak several months prior, rather than cryptic lineages that were sustained but not detected in New Zealand. These data reveal the impact of NPI used during the COVID-19 pandemic on other respiratory infections and highlight the important insights that can be gained from viral genomes.

Interrogating Genomes and Geography to Unravel Multiyear Vesicular Stomatitis Epizootics

We conducted an integrative analysis to elucidate the spatial epidemiological patterns of the Vesicular Stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) during the 2014-15 epizootic cycle in the United States (US). Using georeferenced VSNJV genomics data, confirmed vesicular stomatitis (VS) disease cases from surveillance, and a suite of environmental factors, our study assessed environmental and phylogenetic similarity to compare VS cases reported in 2014 and 2015. Despite uncertainties from incomplete virus sampling and cross-scale spatial processes, patterns suggested multiple independent re-invasion events concurrent with potential viral overwintering between sequential seasons. Our findings pointed to a geographically defined southern virus pool at the US-Mexico interface as the source of VSNJV invasions and overwintering sites. Phylodynamic analysis demonstrated an increase in virus diversity before a rise in case numbers and a pronounced reduction in virus diversity during the winter season, indicative of a genetic bottleneck and a significant narrowing of virus variation between the summer outbreak seasons. Environment-vector interactions underscored the central role of meta-population dynamics in driving disease spread. These insights emphasize the necessity for location- and time-specific management practices, including rapid response, movement restrictions, vector control, and other targeted interventions.

Inference of Infectious Disease Transmission through a Relaxed Bottleneck Using Multiple Genomes Per Host

In recent times, pathogen genome sequencing has become increasingly used to investigate infectious disease outbreaks. When genomic data is sampled densely enough amongst infected individuals, it can help resolve who infected whom. However, transmission analysis cannot rely solely on a phylogeny of the genomes but must account for the within-host evolution of the pathogen, which blurs the relationship between phylogenetic and transmission trees. When only a single genome is sampled for each host, the uncertainty about who infected whom can be quite high. Consequently, transmission analysis based on multiple genomes of the same pathogen per host has a clear potential for delivering more precise results, even though it is more laborious to achieve. Here, we present a new methodology that can use any number of genomes sampled from a set of individuals to reconstruct their transmission network. Furthermore, we remove the need for the assumption of a complete transmission bottleneck. We use simulated data to show that our method becomes more accurate as more genomes per host are provided, and that it can infer key infectious disease parameters such as the size of the transmission bottleneck, within-host growth rate, basic reproduction number, and sampling fraction. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method in applications to real datasets from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa amongst cystic fibrosis patients and a nosocomial outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Rural populations facilitated early SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission in Missouri, USA

In the United States, rural populations comprise 60 million individuals and suffered from high COVID-19 disease burdens. Despite this, surveillance efforts are biased toward urban centers. Consequently, how rurally circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses contribute toward emerging variants remains poorly understood. In this study, we aim to investigate the role of rural communities in the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the early pandemic. We collected 544 urban and 435 rural COVID-19-positive respiratory specimens from an overall vaccine-naïve population in Southwest Missouri between July and December 2020. Genomic analyses revealed 53 SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineages in our study samples, with 14 of these lineages identified only in rural samples. Phylodynamic analyses showed that frequent bi-directional diffusions occurred between rural and urban communities in Southwest Missouri, and that four out of seven Missouri rural-origin lineages spread globally. Further analyses revealed that the nucleocapsid protein (N):R203K/G204R paired substitutions, which were detected disproportionately across multiple Pango lineages, were more associated with urban than rural sequences. Positive selection was detected at N:204 among rural samples but was not evident in urban samples, suggesting that viruses may encounter distinct selection pressures in rural versus urban communities. This study demonstrates that rural communities may be a crucial source of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission, highlighting the need to expand surveillance and resources to rural populations for COVID-19 mitigation.

Neuroinvasion and anosmia are independent phenomena upon infection with SARS-CoV-2 and its variants

Anosmia was identified as a hallmark of COVID-19 early in the pandemic, however, with the emergence of variants of concern, the clinical profile induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection has changed, with anosmia being less frequent. Here, we assessed the clinical, olfactory and neuroinflammatory conditions of golden hamsters infected with the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 strain, its isogenic ORF7-deletion mutant and three variants: Gamma, Delta, and Omicron/BA.1. We show that infected animals develop a variant-dependent clinical disease including anosmia, and that the ORF7 of SARS-CoV-2 contributes to the induction of olfactory dysfunction. Conversely, all SARS-CoV-2 variants are neuroinvasive, regardless of the clinical presentation they induce. Taken together, this confirms that neuroinvasion and anosmia are independent phenomena upon SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using newly generated nanoluciferase-expressing SARS-CoV-2, we validate the olfactory pathway as a major entry point into the brain in vivo and demonstrate in vitro that SARS-CoV-2 travels retrogradely and anterogradely along axons in microfluidic neuron-epithelial networks.

Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in New Zealand Children

New Zealand (NZ) initially adopted an elimination approach to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Pre-Omicron variant, the NZ pediatric population was immunologically naïve to SARS-CoV-2. This study, utilizing national data sources, describes the NZ incidence of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) following infection with the Omicron variant. MIS-C incidence was 1.03 of 100,000 age-specific population and 0.04 of 1000 recorded SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Exploring the depth and breadth of the genomics toolbox during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from Aotearoa New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Genomic technologies have become routine in the surveillance and monitoring of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, as evidenced by the millions of SARS-CoV-2 sequences uploaded to international databases. Yet the ways in which these technologies have been applied to manage the pandemic are varied.

MAIN TEXT

Aotearoa New Zealand was one of a small number of countries to adopt an elimination strategy for COVID-19, establishing a managed isolation and quarantine system for all international arrivals. To aid our response, we rapidly set up and scaled our use of genomic technologies to help identify community cases of COVID-19, to understand how they had arisen, and to determine the appropriate action to maintain elimination. Once New Zealand pivoted from elimination to suppression in late 2021, our genomic response changed to focusing on identifying new variants arriving at the border, tracking their incidence around the country, and examining any links between specific variants and increased disease severity. Wastewater detection, quantitation and variant detection were also phased into the response. Here, we explore New Zealand's genomic journey through the pandemic and provide a high-level overview of the lessons learned and potential future capabilities to better prepare for future pandemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our commentary is aimed at health professionals and decision-makers who might not be familiar with genetic technologies, how they can be used, and why this is an area with great potential to assist in disease detection and tracking now and in the future.

Resurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong

Hong Kong experienced a surge of Omicron BA.2 infections in early 2022, resulting in one of the highest per-capita death rates of COVID-19. The outbreak occurred in a dense population with low immunity towards natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, high vaccine hesitancy in vulnerable populations, comprehensive disease surveillance and the capacity for stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs). By analyzing genome sequences and epidemiological data, we reconstructed the epidemic trajectory of BA.2 wave and found that the initial BA.2 community transmission emerged from cross-infection within hotel quarantine. The rapid implementation of PHSMs suppressed early epidemic growth but the effective reproduction number (Re) increased again during the Spring festival in early February and remained around 1 until early April. Independent estimates of point prevalence and incidence using phylodynamics also showed extensive superspreading at this time, which likely contributed to the rapid expansion of the epidemic. Discordant inferences based on genomic and epidemiological data underscore the need for research to improve near real-time epidemic growth estimates by combining multiple disparate data sources to better inform outbreak response policy.

Using mechanistic model-based inference to understand and project epidemic dynamics with time-varying contact and vaccination rates

Epidemiological models range in complexity from relatively simple statistical models that make minimal assumptions about the variables driving epidemic dynamics to more mechanistic models that include effects such as vaccine-derived and infection-derived immunity, population structure and heterogeneity. The former are often fitted to data in real-time and used for short-term forecasting, while the latter are more suitable for comparing longer-term scenarios under differing assumptions about control measures or other factors. Here, we present a mechanistic model of intermediate complexity that can be fitted to data in real-time but is also suitable for investigating longer-term dynamics. Our approach provides a bridge between primarily empirical approaches to forecasting and assumption-driven scenario models. The model was developed as a policy advice tool for New Zealand's 2021 outbreak of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 and includes the effects of age structure, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the ongoing vaccine rollout occurring during the time period studied. We use an approximate Bayesian computation approach to infer the time-varying transmission coefficient from real-time data on reported cases. We then compare projections of the model with future, out-of-sample data. We find that this approach produces a good fit with in-sample data and reasonable forward projections given the inherent limitations of predicting epidemic dynamics during periods of rapidly changing policy and behaviour. Results from the model helped inform the New Zealand Government's policy response throughout the outbreak.

Global Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: Dispersal Patterns and Influence of Air Travel

In many regions of the world, the Alpha, Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) co-circulated during 2020-21 and fueled waves of infections. During 2021, these variants were almost completely displaced by the Delta variant, causing a third wave of infections worldwide. This phenomenon of global viral lineage displacement was observed again in late 2021, when the Omicron variant disseminated globally. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs worldwide. We find that the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially by VOC, and identify countries that acted as global hubs of variant dissemination, while other countries became regional contributors to the export of specific variants. We demonstrate a declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs to their global dispersal: we estimate that India contributed <15% of all global exports of Delta to other countries and South Africa <1-2% of all global Omicron exports globally. We further estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron BA.1 100 days after its inferred date of emergence, compared to just over 25 countries for the Alpha variant. This increased speed of global dissemination was associated with a rebound in air travel volume prior to Omicron emergence in addition to the higher transmissibility of Omicron relative to Alpha. Our study highlights the importance of global and regional hubs in VOC dispersal, and the speed at which highly transmissible variants disseminate through these hubs, even before their detection and characterization through genomic surveillance.

Highlights

Global phylogenetic analysis reveals relationship between air travel and speed of dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs)Omicron VOC spread to 5x more countries within 100 days of its emergence compared to all other VOCsOnward transmission and dissemination of VOCs Delta and Omicron was primarily from secondary hubs rather than initial country of detection during a time of increased global air travelAnalysis highlights highly connected countries identified as major global and regional exporters of VOCs.

Tracing the international arrivals of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants after Aotearoa New Zealand reopened its border

In the second quarter of 2022, there was a global surge of emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages that had a distinct growth advantage over then-dominant Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 lineages. By generating 10,403 Omicron genomes, we show that Aotearoa New Zealand observed an influx of these immune-evasive variants (BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5) through the border. This is explained by the return to significant levels of international travel following the border's reopening in March 2022. We estimate one Omicron transmission event from the border to the community for every ~5,000 passenger arrivals at the current levels of travel and restriction. Although most of these introductions did not instigate any detected onward transmission, a small minority triggered large outbreaks. Genomic surveillance at the border provides a lens on the rate at which new variants might gain a foothold and trigger new waves of infection.

Real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand

During an epidemic, real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number supports decision makers to introduce timely and effective public health measures. We estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number, R_t , during Aotearoa New Zealand's August 2021 outbreak of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, by fitting the publicly available EpiNow2 model to New Zealand case data. While we do not explicitly model non-pharmaceutical interventions or vaccination coverage, these two factors were the leading drivers of variation in transmission in this period and we describe how changes in these factors coincided with changes in R_t . Alert Level 4, New Zealand's most stringent restriction setting which includes stay-at-home measures, was initially effective at reducing the median R_t to 0.6 (90% CrI 0.4, 0.8) on 29 August 2021. As New Zealand eased certain restrictions and switched from an elimination strategy to a suppression strategy, R_t subsequently increased to a median 1.3 (1.2, 1.4). Increasing vaccination coverage along with regional restrictions were eventually sufficient to reduce R_t below 1. The outbreak peaked at an estimated 198 (172, 229) new infected cases on 10 November, after which cases declined until January 2022. We continue to update R_t estimates in real time as new case data become available to inform New Zealand's ongoing pandemic response.

Heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic: what can we learn from it?

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this article is to evaluate and explain the heterogeneity of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Australia, to offer advice for stopping the current outbreak and preparing for a suitable response to epidemics in the future.

METHODS

We conducted a review to analyze the epidemic and explain its variable manifestation across states in Australia. Most COVID-19 cases and deaths were in the states of Victoria and New South Wales due to differences in the governance of the epidemic and public health responses (quarantine and contact tracing) among states.

RESULTS

Countries could learn from Australia's overall successful response not only through good governance, effective community participation, adequate public health, adequate health system capacity and multisectoral actions but also from the heterogeneity of the epidemic among states.

CONCLUSIONS

A successful response to epidemics in countries with a decentralized administration requires multilevel governance with alignment and harmonization of the response.

Sensitivity of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction Tests for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Through Time

BACKGROUND

Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are the gold standard for detecting recent infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Reverse transcription PCR sensitivity varies over the course of an individual's infection, related to changes in viral load. Differences in testing methods, and individual-level variables such as age, may also affect sensitivity.

METHODS

Using data from New Zealand, we estimate the time-varying sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR under varying temporal, biological, and demographic factors.

RESULTS

Sensitivity peaks 4-5 days postinfection at 92.7% (91.4%-94.0%) and remains over 88% between 5 and 14 days postinfection. After the peak, sensitivity declined more rapidly in vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated, females compared with males, those aged under 40 compared with over 40s, and Pacific peoples compared with other ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

Reverse transcription PCR remains a sensitive technique and has been an effective tool in New Zealand's border and postborder measures to control coronavirus disease 2019. Our results inform model parameters and decisions concerning routine testing frequency.