Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests

Informing Public Health Policies with Models for Disease Burden, Impact Evaluation, and Economic Evaluation

Conducting real-world public health experiments is often costly, time-consuming, and ethically challenging, so mathematical models have a long-standing history of being used to inform policy. Applications include estimating disease burden, performing economic evaluation of interventions, and responding to health emergencies such as pandemics. Models played a pivotal role during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing early detection of SARS-CoV-2's pandemic potential and informing subsequent public health measures. While models offer valuable policy insights, they often carry limitations, especially when they depend on assumptions and incomplete data. Striking a balance between accuracy and timely decision-making in rapidly evolving situations such as disease outbreaks is challenging. Modelers need to explore the extent to which their models deviate from representing the real world. The uncertainties inherent in models must be effectively communicated to policy makers and the public. As the field becomes increasingly influential, it needs to develop reporting standards that enable rigorous external scrutiny.

Generation of a lethal mouse model expressing human ACE2 and TMPRSS2 for SARS-CoV-2 infection and pathogenesis

Mouse models expressing human ACE2 for coronavirus disease 2019 have been frequently used to understand its pathogenesis and develop therapeutic strategies against SARS-CoV-2. Given that human TMPRSS2 supports viral entry, replication, and pathogenesis, we established a double-transgenic mouse model expressing both human ACE2 and TMPRSS2 for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Co-overexpression of both genes increased viral infectivity in vitro and in vivo. Double-transgenic mice showed significant body weight loss, clinical disease symptoms, acute lung injury, lung inflammation, and lethality in response to viral infection, indicating that they were highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. Pretreatment with the TMPRSS2 inhibitor, nafamostat, effectively reduced virus-induced weight loss, viral replication, and mortality in the double-transgenic mice. Moreover, the susceptibility and differential pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 variants were demonstrated in this animal model. Together, our results demonstrate that double-transgenic mice could provide a highly susceptible mouse model for viral infection to understand SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and evaluate antiviral therapeutics against coronavirus disease 2019.

The laboratory parameters-derived CoLab score as an indicator of the host response in ICU COVID-19 patients decreases over time: a prospective cohort study

The CoLab score was developed and externally validated to rule out COVID-19 among suspected patients presenting at the emergency department. We hypothesized a within-patient decrease in the CoLab score over time in an intensive care unit (ICU) cohort. Such a decrease would create the opportunity to potentially rule out the need for isolation when the infection is overcome. Using linear mixed-effects models, data from the Maastricht Intensive Care COVID (MaastrICCht) cohort were used to investigate the association between time and the CoLab score. Models were adjusted for sex, APACHE II score, ICU mortality, and daily SOFA score. The CoLab score decreased by 0.30 points per day (95% CI - 0.33 to - 0.27), independent of sex, APACHE II, and Mortality. With increasing SOFA score over time, the CoLab score decreased more strongly (- 0.01 (95% CI - 0.01 to - 0.01) additional decrease per one-point increase in SOFA score.) The CoLab score decreased in ICU patients on mechanical ventilation for COVID-19, with a one-point reduction per three days, independent of sex, APACHE II, and ICU mortality, and somewhat stronger with increasing multi-organ failure over time. This suggests that the CoLab score would decrease below a threshold where COVID-19 can be excluded.

Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study

In the era of living with COVID-19, the risk of localised SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks remains. Here, we develop a multiscale modelling framework for estimating the local outbreak risk for a viral disease (the probability that a major outbreak results from a single case introduced into the population), accounting for within-host viral dynamics. Compared to population-level models previously used to estimate outbreak risks, our approach enables more detailed analysis of how the risk can be mitigated through pre-emptive interventions such as antigen testing. Considering SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we quantify the within-host dynamics using data from individuals with omicron variant infections. We demonstrate that regular antigen testing reduces, but may not eliminate, the outbreak risk, depending on characteristics of local transmission. In our baseline analysis, daily antigen testing reduces the outbreak risk by 45% compared to a scenario without antigen testing. Additionally, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between individuals affects outbreak risk estimates and assessments of the impact of antigen testing. Our results therefore highlight important factors to consider when using multiscale models to design pre-emptive interventions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.

How are countries responding differently to COVID-19: a systematic review of guidelines on isolation measures

Introduction

Isolation strategies have been implemented in numerous countries worldwide during the ongoing community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, various countries and organizations have implemented their isolation measures at varying intensities, even during the same period. Therefore, we systematically reviewed the key information contained in currently available guidelines regarding the isolation of the general population, aiming to better identify the heterogeneity of the current isolation strategies.

Methods

We conducted searches in four evidence-based medicine (EBM) databases and five guideline websites to identify guidelines, guidance, protocols, and policy documents published by authoritative advisory bodies or healthcare organizations, which provided information on the implementation of isolation for general populations with COVID-19. One author extracted data using a standardized data extraction checklist, and a second author double-checked all extractions for completeness and correctness. Discrepancies were resolved through discussion. The information extracted from the included articles was summarized both narratively and using tables.

Results

We included 15 articles that provided information on isolation measures recommended by nine different countries and organizations. The included articles consistently recommended isolating individuals with a positive COVID-19 test, regardless of the presence of symptoms. However, there were variations in the duration of isolation, and substantial differences also existed in the criteria for ending the isolation of COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion

Different countries and organizations have substantial differences in their isolation policies. This reminds us that scientifically sound guidelines on isolation that balance the risk of prematurely ending isolation with the burden of prolonged isolation are a crucial topic of discussion when faced with a pandemic.

Enhancing a SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen test sensitivity with cost efficient strategy through a cotton intermembrane insertion

Lateral flow antigen tests have been widely used in the Covid-19 pandemic, allowing faster diagnostic test results and preventing further viral spread through isolation of infected individuals. Accomplishment of this screening must be performed with tests that show satisfactory sensitivity in order to successfully detect the target protein and avoid false negatives. The aim of this study was to create a lateral flow test that could detect SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein in low concentrations that were comparable to the limits of detection claimed by existing tests from the market. To do so, several adjustments were necessary during research and development of the prototypes until they were consistent with these criteria. The proposed alternatives of increasing the test line antibody concentration and addition of an intermembrane between the conjugate pad and the nitrocellulose membrane were able to increase the sensitivity four-fold and generate a new rapid test prototype called "lateral flow intermembrane immunoassay test" (LFIIT). This prototype showed an adequate limit of detection (2.0 ng mL^-1) while maintaining affordability and simplicity in manufacturing processes.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant: A Challenge with COVID-19

Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there have been multiple peaks of the SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus virus 2) infection, mainly due to the emergence of new variants, each with a new set of mutations in the viral genome, which have led to changes in the pathogenicity, transmissibility, and morbidity. The Omicron variant is the most recent variant of concern (VOC) to emerge and was recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 26 November 2021. The Omicron lineage is phylogenetically distinct from earlier variants, including the previously dominant Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. The reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, rapid antigen assays, and chest computed tomography (CT) scans can help diagnose the Omicron variant. Furthermore, many agents are expected to have therapeutic benefits for those infected with the Omicron variant, including TriSb92, molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir, and their combination, corticosteroids, and interleukin-6 (IL-6) receptor blockers. Despite being milder than previous variants, the Omicron variant threatens many lives, particularly among the unvaccinated, due to its higher transmissibility, pathogenicity, and infectivity. Mounting evidence has reported the most common clinical manifestations of the Omicron variant to be fever, runny nose, sore throat, severe headache, and fatigue. This review summarizes the essential features of the Omicron variant, including its history, genome, transmissibility, clinical manifestations, diagnosis, management, and the effectiveness of existing vaccines against this VOC.

Positivization time of a COVID-19 rapid antigen self-test predicts SARS-CoV-2 viral load: a proof of concept

OBJECTIVES

This proof of concept study was aimed to validate the hypothesis that the time of positivization of SARS-CoV-2 self-performed rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) may reflect the actual viral load in the specimen.

METHODS

A SARS-CoV-2 positive sample with high viral load was diluted and concomitantly assayed with molecular assay (Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2) and RDT (COVID-VIRO ALL IN RDT). The (mean cycle threshold; Ct) values and RDT positivization times of these dilutions were plotted and interpolated by calculating the best fit. The parameters of this equation were then used for converting the positivization times into RDT-estimated SARS-CoV-2 Ct values in routine patient samples.

RESULTS

The best fit between measured and RDT-estimated Ct values could be achieved with a 2-degree polynomial curve. The RDT-estimated Ct values exhibited high correlation (r=0.996) and excellent Deming fit (y=1.01 × x - 0.18) with measured Ct values. In 30 consecutive patients with positive RDT test, the correlation between RDT positivization time and measured Ct value was r=0.522 (p=0.003). The correlation of RDT-estimated and measured Ct values slightly improved to 0.577 (Deming fit: y=0.44 × x + 11.08), displaying a negligible bias (1.0; 95% CI, -0.2 to 2.2; p=0.105). Concordance of RDT-estimated and measured Ct values at the <20 cut-off was 80%, with 0.84 sensitivity and 0.73 specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

This proof of concept study demonstrates the potential feasibility of using RDTs for garnering information on viral load in patients with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.

An overview of the most important preanalytical factors influencing the clinical performance of SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs)

Due to the many technical limitations of molecular biology, the possibility to sustain enormous volumes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) diagnostic testing relies strongly on the use of antigen rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs). Besides a limited analytical sensitivity, the manually intensive test procedures needed for performing these tests, very often performed by unskilled personnel or by the patients themselves, may contribute to considerably impair their diagnostic accuracy. We provide here an updated overview on the leading preanalytical drawbacks that may impair SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT accuracy, and which encompass lower diagnostic sensitivity in certain age groups, in asymptomatic subjects and those with a longer time from symptoms onset, in vaccine recipients, in individuals not appropriately trained to their usage, in those recently using oral or nasal virucidal agents, in oropharyngeal swabs and saliva, as well as in circumstances when instructions provided by the manufacturers are unclear, incomplete or scarcely readable and intelligible. Acknowledging these important preanalytical limitations will lead the way to a better, more clinically efficient and even safer use of this important technology, which represents an extremely valuable resource for management of the ongoing pandemic.