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Liu C, Van Meerbeek K. Predicting the responses of European grassland communities to climate and land cover change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230335. [PMID: 38583469 PMCID: PMC10999271 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0335] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
European grasslands are among the most species-rich ecosystems on small spatial scales. However, human-induced activities like land use and climate change pose significant threats to this diversity. To explore how climate and land cover change will affect biodiversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, we conducted joint species distribution models (SDMs) on the extensive vegetation-plot database sPlotOpen to project distributions of 1178 grassland species across Europe under current conditions and three future scenarios. We further compared model accuracy and computational efficiency between joint SDMs (JSDMs) and stacked SDMs, especially for rare species. Our results show that: (i) grassland communities in the mountain ranges are expected to suffer high rates of species loss, while those in western, northern and eastern Europe will experience substantial turnover; (ii) scaling anomalies were observed in the predicted species richness, reflecting regional differences in the dominant drivers of assembly processes; (iii) JSDMs did not outperform stacked SDMs in predictive power but demonstrated superior efficiency in model fitting and predicting; and (iv) incorporating co-occurrence datasets improved the model performance in predicting the distribution of rare species. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chang Liu
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Flanders 3001, Belgium
| | - Koenraad Van Meerbeek
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Flanders 3001, Belgium
- KU Leuven Plant Institute, Leuven, Flanders, Belgium
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2
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Alsos IG, Boussange V, Rijal DP, Beaulieu M, Brown AG, Herzschuh U, Svenning JC, Pellissier L. Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230017. [PMID: 38583481 PMCID: PMC10999269 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inger Greve Alsos
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Victor Boussange
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Dilli Prasad Rijal
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Marieke Beaulieu
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Antony Gavin Brown
- The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ulrike Herzschuh
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegraphenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, Potsdam University, 14479 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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3
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Fan B, Lu H, Li Y, Shen C, Xu Q, Zhang J, Huan X, Wang Y, Wang N, Xu D, Dong Y, Cui A, Wu N. A novel approach for quantitatively distinguishing between anthropogenic and natural effects on paleovegetation. PNAS NEXUS 2024; 3:pgae135. [PMID: 38617585 PMCID: PMC11010655 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
How to distinguish and quantify past human impacts on vegetation is a significant challenge in paleoecology. Here, we propose a novel method, the error inflection point-discriminant technique. It finds out the inflection points (IPs) of the regression errors of pollen-climate transfer functions using modern pollen spectra from vegetation with different values of the Human Influence Index (HII), which represent the HII threshold values of native/secondary and secondary/artificial vegetation systems. Our results show that the HII value at the native/secondary vegetation IPs is approximately 22 and globally uniform, whereas it varies regionally for the secondary/artificial vegetation IPs. In a case study of the Liangzhu archaeological site in the lower Yangtze River, discriminant functions for pollen spectra from three vegetation types and pollen-climate transfer functions of the native vegetation were established to reconstruct paleovegetation and paleoclimate over the past 6,600 years. Our study demonstrates this method's feasibility for quantitatively distinguishing human impacts on paleovegetation and assessing quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions using pollen data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Baoshuo Fan
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, College of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, PR China
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
| | - Houyuan Lu
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China
| | - Yuecong Li
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, College of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, PR China
| | - Caiming Shen
- Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographical Processes and Environmental Changes, Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, PR China
| | - Qinghai Xu
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, College of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, PR China
| | - Jianping Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
| | - Xiujia Huan
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
- Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, School of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, PR China
| | - Yonglei Wang
- Zhejiang Provincial Institute of Relics and Archaeology, Hangzhou 310014, PR China
| | - Ningyuan Wang
- Zhejiang Provincial Institute of Relics and Archaeology, Hangzhou 310014, PR China
| | - Deke Xu
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
| | - Yajie Dong
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
| | - Anning Cui
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
| | - Naiqin Wu
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
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Seeber PA, Batke L, Dvornikov Y, Schmidt A, Wang Y, Stoof-Leichsenring K, Moon K, Vohr SH, Shapiro B, Epp LS. Mitochondrial genomes of Pleistocene megafauna retrieved from recent sediment layers of two Siberian lakes. eLife 2024; 12:RP89992. [PMID: 38488477 PMCID: PMC10942779 DOI: 10.7554/elife.89992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) from lake sediments has yielded remarkable insights for the reconstruction of past ecosystems, including suggestions of late survival of extinct species. However, translocation and lateral inflow of DNA in sediments can potentially distort the stratigraphic signal of the DNA. Using three different approaches on two short lake sediment cores of the Yamal peninsula, West Siberia, with ages spanning only the past hundreds of years, we detect DNA and identified mitochondrial genomes of multiple mammoth and woolly rhinoceros individuals-both species that have been extinct for thousands of years on the mainland. The occurrence of clearly identifiable aeDNA of extinct Pleistocene megafauna (e.g. >400 K reads in one core) throughout these two short subsurface cores, along with specificities of sedimentology and dating, confirm that processes acting on regional scales, such as extensive permafrost thawing, can influence the aeDNA record and should be accounted for in aeDNA paleoecology.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Laura Batke
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Yury Dvornikov
- Agroengineering Department/Department of Landscape Design and Sustainable Ecosystems, Agrarian and Technological Institute, RUDN University, Moscow, Russian Federation
- Laboratory of Carbon Monitoring in Terrestrial Ecosystems, Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems of Soil Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Russian Federation
| | | | - Yi Wang
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Kathleen Stoof-Leichsenring
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Katie Moon
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States
| | | | - Beth Shapiro
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States
| | - Laura S Epp
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
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Laine J, Mak SST, Martins NFG, Chen X, Gilbert MTP, Jones FC, Pedersen MW, Romundset A, Foote AD. Late Pleistocene stickleback environmental genomes reveal the chronology of freshwater adaptation. Curr Biol 2024; 34:1142-1147.e6. [PMID: 38350445 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.01.056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Revised: 12/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/15/2024]
Abstract
Directly observing the chronology and tempo of adaptation in response to ecological change is rarely possible in natural ecosystems. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has been shown to be a tractable source of genome-scale data of long-dead organisms1,2,3 and to thereby potentially provide an understanding of the evolutionary histories of past populations.4,5 To date, time series of ecosystem biodiversity have been reconstructed from sedaDNA, typically using DNA metabarcoding or shotgun sequence data generated from less than 1 g of sediment.6,7 Here, we maximize sequence coverage by extracting DNA from ∼50× more sediment per sample than the majority of previous studies1,2,3 to achieve genotype resolution. From a time series of Late Pleistocene sediments spanning from a marine to freshwater ecosystem, we compare adaptive genotypes reconstructed from the environmental genomes of three-spined stickleback at key time points of this transition. We find a staggered temporal dynamic in which freshwater alleles at known loci of large effect in marine-freshwater divergence of three-spined stickleback (e.g., EDA)8 were already established during the brackish phase of the formation of the isolation basin. However, marine alleles were still detected across the majority of marine-freshwater divergence-associated loci, even after the complete isolation of the lake from marine ingression. Our retrospective approach to studying adaptation from environmental genomes of three-spined sticklebacks at the end of the last glacial period complements contemporary experimental approaches9,10,11 and highlights the untapped potential for retrospective "evolve and resequence" natural experiments using sedaDNA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Laine
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Erling Skakkes gate 47A, 7012 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Sarah S T Mak
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nuno F G Martins
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Xihan Chen
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Erling Skakkes gate 47A, 7012 Trondheim, Norway; Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Felicity C Jones
- Friedrich Miescher Laboratory of the Max Planck Society, Max-Planck-Ring 9, 72076 Tübingen, Germany
| | - Mikkel Winther Pedersen
- Lundbeck Foundation GeoGenetics Centre, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Andrew D Foote
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Erling Skakkes gate 47A, 7012 Trondheim, Norway; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
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6
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Chauvier-Mendes Y, Pollock LJ, Verburg PH, Karger DN, Pellissier L, Lavergne S, Zimmermann NE, Thuiller W. Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:454-466. [PMID: 38253754 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02287-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yohann Chauvier-Mendes
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
| | - Laura J Pollock
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, Quebec
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Dirk N Karger
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Sébastien Lavergne
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, LECA, CNRS, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, Grenoble, France
| | - Niklaus E Zimmermann
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, LECA, CNRS, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, Grenoble, France
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7
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Rapuc W, Giguet-Covex C, Bouchez J, Sabatier P, Gaillardet J, Jacq K, Genuite K, Poulenard J, Messager E, Arnaud F. Human-triggered magnification of erosion rates in European Alps since the Bronze Age. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1246. [PMID: 38341420 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45123-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024] Open
Abstract
A major feature of the Anthropocene is the drastic increase in global soil erosion. Soil erosion is threatening Earth habitability not only as soils are an essential component of the Earth system but also because societies depend on soils. However, proper quantification of the impact of human activities on erosion over thousands of years is still lacking. This is particularly crucial in mountainous areas, where the highest erosion rates are recorded. Here we use the Lake Bourget catchment, one of the largest in the European Alps, to estimate quantitatively the impact of human activities on erosion. Based on a multi-proxy, source-to-sink approach relying on isotopic geochemistry, we discriminate the effects of climate fluctuations from those of human activities on erosion over the last 10,000 years. We demonstrate that until 3800 years ago, climate is the only driver of erosion. From that time on, climate alone cannot explain the measured rates of erosion. Thanks to an unprecedented regional paleoenvironmental reconstruction, we highlight that the development of pastoralism at high altitudes from the Bronze Age onwards and the extension of agriculture starting in the Middle Ages were key factors in the drastic increase in erosion observed in the Alps.
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Affiliation(s)
- William Rapuc
- EDYTEM, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France.
- Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
| | | | - Julien Bouchez
- Université Paris Cité, Institut de Physique Du Globe de Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Pierre Sabatier
- EDYTEM, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France
| | - Jérôme Gaillardet
- Université Paris Cité, Institut de Physique Du Globe de Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
| | - Kévin Jacq
- Laboratoire Commun SpecSolE, Envisol, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France
| | - Kim Genuite
- UMR PACEA 5199, CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, 33615, Pessac, France
| | - Jérôme Poulenard
- EDYTEM, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France
| | - Erwan Messager
- EDYTEM, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France
| | - Fabien Arnaud
- EDYTEM, CNRS, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73000, Chambéry, France
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