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Zhu Q, Ye P, Wang Y, Duan L, He G, Er Y, Jin Y, Ji C, Hu J, Deng X, Ma W, Liu T. Heatwaves increase road traffic injury morbidity risk and burden in China and its provinces. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 188:108760. [PMID: 38788419 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Revised: 05/08/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Previous studies have demonstrated health impacts of climate change, but evidence on heatwaves' associations with road traffic injury (RTI) is limited. In this study, individual information of RTI cases in May-September during 2006-2021 in China were obtained from the National Injury Surveillance System. Daily maximum temperatures (TMmax) during 2006-2021 were collected from the ERA-5 reanalysis, and the projected daily TMmax during 2020-2099 were obtained from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs). We used a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to investigate the association between short-term exposure (lag01 days) to heatwaves (exceeding the 92.5th percentile of daily TMmax for ≥ three consecutive days) and RTI, and to project heatwave-related RTI until 2099 across China. Finally, a total of 1 031 082 RTI cases were included in the analyses. Compared with non-heatwaves, the risks of RTI increased by 3.61 % during heatwaves. Greater associations were found in people aged 15-64 years, in people with transportation occupation, for non-motor traffic vehicle injuries, for severe RTI cases, and in Western China particularly in Qinghai province. We projected substantial increases in attributable fraction (AF) of heatwave-related RTI in the future, particularly in Western and Southwest China. The national average increase in AF (per decade) during 2020s-2090s was 0.036 % for SSP1-2.6 scenario, and 0.267 % for SSP5-8.5 scenario. This study provided evidence on the associations of heatwaves with RTI, and the heatwave-related RTI will substantially increase in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qijiong Zhu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Pengpeng Ye
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Yuan Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Leilei Duan
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Yuliang Er
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Ye Jin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Cuirong Ji
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Xiao Deng
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
| | - Tao Liu
- China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China.
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Zhou L, Liu C, He C, Lei J, Zhu Y, Gao Y, Xuan J, Kan H, Chen R. Quantification of the Heat-Related Risk and Burden of Hospitalizations for Cause-Specific Injuries and Contribution of Human-Induced Climate Change: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study in China. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2024; 132:57005. [PMID: 38752990 PMCID: PMC11098006 DOI: 10.1289/ehp14057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/26/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although ambient temperature has been linked with injury incidence, there have been few nationwide studies to quantify the temperature-related risk and burden of cause-specific injury hospitalizations. Additionally, the impact of human-induced climate change to injury burden remains unknown. OBJECTIVES Our objectives are to examine the associations between ambient temperature and injury hospitalizations from various causes and to quantify the contribution of human-induced warming to the heat-related burden. METHODS We collected injury hospitalization data from a nationwide hospital-based registry in China during 2000-2019. Using a time-stratified case-crossover design, we investigated the associations between daily mean temperature (°C) and cause-specific injury hospitalizations. We also quantified the burden of heat-related injuries under the scenarios with and without anthropogenic forcing, using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project to assess the contribution of human-induced warming. RESULTS Our study included a total of 988,087 patients with hospitalization records for injuries. Overall, compared to the temperature at minimum risk of hospitalization (- 12.1 ° C ), the relative risk of hospitalization at extreme hot temperature (30.8°C, 97.5th percentile) was 1.18 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.22], with an approximately linear association between temperature and hospitalization. Vulnerability to heat-related injuries was more pronounced among males, young (< 18 years of age) or middle-aged (45-64 years of age) individuals, and those living in the North. The heat-related attributable fraction increased from 23.2% in the 2000s to 23.6% in the 2010s, with a corresponding increase in the contribution of human-induced change over time. In the 2010s, the heat-related attributable fractions for specific causes of injury ranged from 12.4% to 54.4%, with human-induced change accounting for 6.7% to 10.6% of the burden. DISCUSSION This nationwide study presents new evidence of significant associations between temperature and cause-specific injury hospitalizations in China and highlights the increasing contribution of human-induced warming to the injury burden. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14057.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lu Zhou
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Cong Liu
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Cheng He
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Jian Lei
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yixiang Zhu
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ya Gao
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jianwei Xuan
- Health Economic Research Institute, School of Pharmacy, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- National Center for Children’s Health, Children’s Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, China
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Jiang Z, Lin Z, Li Z, Yu M, He G, Hu J, Meng R, Hou Z, Zhu S, Zhou C, Xiao Y, Huang B, Xu X, Jin D, Qin M, Xu Y, Liu T, Ma W. Joint effects of heat-humidity compound events on drowning mortality in Southern China. Inj Prev 2024:ip-2023-045036. [PMID: 38443161 DOI: 10.1136/ip-2023-045036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 02/17/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several previous studies have examined the association of ambient temperature with drowning. However, no study has investigated the effects of heat-humidity compound events on drowning mortality. METHODS The drowning mortality data and meteorological data during the five hottest months (May to September) were collected from 46 cities in Southern China (2013-2018 in Guangdong, Hunan and Zhejiang provinces). Distributed lag non-linear model was first conducted to examine the association between heat-humidity compound events and drowning mortality at city level. Then, meta-analysis was employed to pool the city-specific exposure-response associations. Finally, we analysed the additive interaction of heat and humidity on drowning mortality. RESULTS Compared with wet-non-hot days, dry-hot days had greater effects (excess rate (ER)=32.34%, 95% CI: 24.64 to 40.50) on drowning mortality than wet-hot days (ER=14.38%, 95%CI: 6.80 to 22.50). During dry-hot days, males (ER=42.40%, 95% CI: 31.92 to 53.72), adolescents aged 0-14 years (ER=45.00%, 95% CI: 21.98 to 72.35) and urban city (ER=36.91%, 95% CI: 23.87 to 51.32) showed higher drowning mortality risk than their counterparts. For wet-hot days, males, adolescents and urban city had higher ERs than their counterparts. Attributable fraction (AF) of drowning attributed to dry-hot days was 23.83% (95% CI: 21.67 to 26.99) which was significantly higher than that for wet-hot days (11.32%, 95% CI: 9.64 to 13.48%). We also observed that high temperature and low humidity had an additive interaction on drowning mortality. CONCLUSION We found that dry-hot days had greater drowning mortality risk and burden than wet-hot days, and high temperature and low humidity might have synergy on drowning mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiying Jiang
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ziqiang Lin
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhixing Li
- Department of Public Health, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Min Yu
- Division of NCD Control, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ruilin Meng
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhulin Hou
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, China
| | - Sui Zhu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Chunliang Zhou
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
| | - Yize Xiao
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Biao Huang
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, China
| | - Xiaojun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Donghui Jin
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
| | - Mingfang Qin
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Yiqing Xu
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
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Rony MKK, Alamgir HM. High temperatures on mental health: Recognizing the association and the need for proactive strategies-A perspective. Health Sci Rep 2023; 6:e1729. [PMID: 38059052 PMCID: PMC10696165 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.1729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Revised: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background and Aims The influence of temperature on various aspects of daily life is often underestimated, and its effects on mental health are not widely recognized. Understanding and addressing the relationship between temperature and mental well-being is crucial in the context of climate change and rising global temperatures. This perspective aimed to investigate the effects of high temperatures on mental health and identify proactive strategies to mitigate these effects. Methods This perspective adopted a twofold approach, including a comprehensive literature review and socioecological framework. The literature review involved extensive searches across Google Scholar, PubMed, and Scopus to identify relevant, peer-reviewed articles, and reports from diverse disciplines. Results The perspective emphasized the significance of recognizing heat stress and its consequences on mental well-being. Chronic heat stress can lead to increased stress, anxiety, and cognitive impairment. Vulnerable populations include, the very young, older adults, and individuals with pre-existing mental health conditions. Socioeconomic factors can further exacerbate vulnerability, highlighting the need for tailored strategies to manage mental health challenges during high temperatures. Additionally, the article identified and discussed proactive coping strategies to minimize both the psychological and physical impacts of heat stress. Mindfulness, stress management techniques, and therapy are suggested as effective means for individuals to manage psychological distress. Conclusion Implementing preventive measures are essential steps in promoting mental wellness in high temperatures. Proactive strategies by addressing the physiological and psychological effects of heat and considering the specific needs of vulnerable populations can help individuals and communities navigate the challenges posed by rising temperatures and promote resilience and preserve their mental well-being.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moustaq Karim Khan Rony
- Department of Public HealthBangladesh Open UniversityGazipurBangladesh
- Department of Institute of Social Welfare and ResearchUniversity of DhakaDhakaBangladesh
| | - Hasnat M. Alamgir
- Department of Career & Professional Development Services (CPDS)Southeast UniversityDhakaBangladesh
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Zhang G, Han L, Yao J, Yang J, Xu Z, Cai X, Huang J, Pei L. Assessing future heat stress across China: combined effects of heat and relative humidity on mortality. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1282497. [PMID: 37854241 PMCID: PMC10581210 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1282497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2023] [Accepted: 09/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023] Open
Abstract
This study utilizes China's records of non-accidental mortality along with twenty-five simulations from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections to evaluate forthcoming heat stress and heat-related mortality across China across four distinct scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate a projected escalation in the heat stress index (HSI) throughout China from 2031 to 2100. The most substantial increments compared to the baseline (1995-2014) are observed under SSP5-8.5, indicating a rise of 7.96°C by the year 2100, while under SSP1-2.6, the increase is relatively modest at 1.54°C. Disparities in HSI growth are evident among different subregions, with South China encountering the most significant elevation, whereas Northwest China exhibits the lowest increment. Projected future temperatures align closely with HSI patterns, while relative humidity is anticipated to decrease across the majority of areas. The study's projections indicate that China's heat-related mortality is poised to surpass present levels over the forthcoming decades, spanning a range from 215% to 380% from 2031 to 2100. Notably, higher emission scenarios correspond to heightened heat-related mortality. Additionally, the investigation delves into the respective contributions of humidity and temperature to shifts in heat-related mortality. At present, humidity exerts a greater impact on fluctuations in heat-related mortality within China and its subregions. However, with the projected increase in emissions and global warming, temperature is expected to assume a dominant role in shaping these outcomes. In summary, this study underscores the anticipated escalation of heat stress and heat-related mortality across China in the future. It highlights the imperative of emission reduction as a means to mitigate these risks and underscores the variances in susceptibility to heat stress across different regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guwei Zhang
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, China
| | - Ling Han
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jiajun Yao
- Shengzhou Meteorological Bureau, Shaoxing, China
| | - Jiaxi Yang
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, China
| | - Zhiqi Xu
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, China
| | - Xiuhua Cai
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jin Huang
- Chifeng City Center Hospital Ningcheng County, Chifeng, China
| | - Lin Pei
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing, China
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He C, Yin P, Chen R, Gao Y, Liu W, Schneider A, Bell ML, Kan H, Zhou M. Cause-specific accidental deaths and burdens related to ambient heat in a warming climate: A nationwide study of China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 180:108231. [PMID: 37778287 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/23/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future warming is projected to increase the heat-related mortality burden, especially for vulnerable populations. However, most previous studies focused on non-accidental morbidity or mortality, with far less research on heat-related accidental events. METHODS We collected individual accidental death records among all residents in Chinese mainland from June to August during 2013-2019. Accidental deaths were further divided into several subtypes by different causes. We used an individual-level, time-stratified, case-crossover study design to estimate the association between daily mean temperature and accidental deaths, and estimate its variation in seven geo-climatic zones, age (5-64, 65-74, ≥75), and sex (male, female). We then estimated the temperature-related excess accidental deaths under global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3℃. FINDINGS A total of 711,929 accidental death records were included in our study. We found that higher temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from the total accidental events and four main subtypes, including traffic, falls, drowning, and unintentional injuries. We also found that younger individuals (ages 5-64) and males faced a higher risk of heat-related mortality due to total accidents, traffic incidents, and drowning. For future climate scenarios, even under the 1.5℃ climate change scenario, 6,939 (95% eCI (empirical Confidence Interval): 6,818-7,067) excess accidental deaths per year are attributed to higher summertime daily temperature over mainland China, and the number of accidental deaths would increase by 16.71% and 33.59% under the 2℃ and 3℃ climate change scenarios, respectively. For residents living in southern coastal and northwest inland regions, the projected increase in accidental death is higher. CONCLUSIONS This nationwide study confirms that higher summer temperatures are linked to an increased risk of accidental deaths. Younger age groups and males face a higher risk. This indicates that current estimates of the health effects of climate change might be underestimated, particularly for younger populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ya Gao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei Liu
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Children's Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children's Health, Shanghai, China.
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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Liu J, Lv C, Zheng J, Pan C, Zhang G, Tan H, Ma Y, Zhu Y, Han X, Li C, Yan S, Ma J, Zhang J, Wang C, Bian Y, Cheng K, Liu R, Hou Y, Chen Q, Zhang X, Chen Y, Chen R, Xu F. The impact of non-optimum temperatures, heatwaves and cold spells on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest onset in a changing climate in China: a multi-center, time-stratified, case-crossover study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 36:100778. [PMID: 37547045 PMCID: PMC10398603 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a time-critical and fatal medical emergency that has been linked to non-optimal temperatures. However, the future burden of OHCA due to non-optimal temperatures, heatwaves, and cold spells under climate change has not been well evaluated. Methods We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study in 15 Northern Chinese cities throughout 2020 to estimate the exposure-response relationships of non-optimal temperatures, heatwaves, and cold spells with hourly OHCA onset in hot and cold seasons. We obtained future daily average temperatures by using 20 general circulation models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: one with certain emission control and the other with relaxed control. Lastly, we projected the change of OHCA burden under these two climate scenarios. Findings We analyzed a total of 29,671 OHCA patients and found that high temperatures and heatwaves as well as low temperatures and cold spells were all significantly associated with an increased risk of OHCA onset. Under the scenario of uncontrolled emissions, the attributable fraction (AF) of OHCA due to high temperatures and heatwaves would increase by 4.94% and 6.99% from the 2010s to 2090s, respectively. The AF due to low temperatures would decrease by 1.27% by the 2090s and the effects of cold spells were projected to be marginal after the 2050s. Under a medium emission control scenario, the upward trend of heat-related OHCA burden would become flat, and the decline in cold-related OHCA burden would also slow down. Interpretation Our study provides evidence of significant morbidity risk and burden of OHCA associated with global warming across Northern China. Our findings indicate that the increase in OHCA burden attributable to heat could not be offset by the decrements attributable to cold, emphasizing the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated risks of OHCA onset. Funding National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Project (2018FY100600, 2018FY100602), National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFC1512700, 2020YFC1512705, 2020YFC1512703), Key R&D Program of Shandong Province (2021ZLGX02, 2021SFGC0503), Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (ZR2021MH231), Taishan Pandeng Scholar Program of Shandong Province (tspd20181220), the Interdisciplinary Young Researcher Groups Program of Shandong University (2020QNQT004), ECCM Program of Clinical Research Center of Shandong University (2021SDUCRCA001, 2021SDUCRCA002), foundation from Clinical Research Center of Shandong University (2020SDUCRCB003), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82272240).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangdong Liu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Chuanzhu Lv
- Emergency Medicine Center, Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
- Research Unit of Island Emergency Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (No. 2019RU013), Key Laboratory of Emergency and Trauma of Ministry of Education, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Jiaqi Zheng
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Chang Pan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Guoqiang Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Huiqiong Tan
- Emergency and Intensive Care Center, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Ma
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Emergency Medicine, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, Chongqing, China
| | - Yimin Zhu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Metabonomics, Hunan Provincial Institute of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital/The First Affiliated Hospital, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Xiaotong Han
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Metabonomics, Hunan Provincial Institute of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital/The First Affiliated Hospital, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Chaoqian Li
- Department of Emergency, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China
| | - Shengtao Yan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Jingjing Ma
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Jianbo Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Chunyi Wang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yuan Bian
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Kai Cheng
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Rugang Liu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yaping Hou
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Qiran Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yuguo Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Feng Xu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
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