Resurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong

A modeling study to define guidelines for antigen screening in schools and workplaces to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks

BACKGROUND

In-person interaction offers invaluable benefits to people. To guarantee safe in-person activities during a COVID-19 outbreak, effective identification of infectious individuals is essential. In this study, we aim to analyze the impact of screening with antigen tests in schools and workplaces on identifying COVID-19 infections.

METHODS

We assess the effectiveness of various screening test strategies with antigen tests in schools and workplaces through quantitative simulations. The primary outcome of our analyses is the proportion of infected individuals identified. The transmission process at the population level is modeled using a deterministic compartmental model. Infected individuals are identified through screening tests or symptom development. The time-varying sensitivity of antigen tests and infectiousness is determined by a viral dynamics model. Screening test strategies are characterized by the screening schedule, sensitivity of antigen tests, screening duration, timing of screening initiation, and available tests per person.

RESULTS

Here, we show that early and frequent screening is the key to maximizing the effectiveness of the screening program. For example, 44.5% (95% CI: 40.8-47.5) of infected individuals are identified by daily testing, whereas it is only 33.7% (95% CI: 30.5-37.3) when testing is performed at the end of the program duration. If high sensitivity antigen tests (Detection limit: 6.3 × 10 4 copies/mL) are deployed, it reaches 69.3% (95% CI: 66.5-72.5).

CONCLUSIONS

High sensitivity antigen tests, high frequency screening tests, and immediate initiation of screening tests are important to safely restart educational and economic activities in-person. Our computational framework is useful for assessing screening programs by incorporating situation-specific factors.

Evaluating the impact of extended dosing intervals on mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in adolescents

BACKGROUND

Extending the dosing interval of a primary series of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination has been employed to reduce myocarditis risk in adolescents, but previous evaluation of impact on vaccine effectiveness (VE) is limited to risk after second dose.

METHODS

We quantified the impact of the dosing interval based on case notifications and vaccination uptake in Hong Kong from January to April 2022, based on calendar-time proportional hazards models and matching approaches.

RESULTS

We estimated that the hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) of infections after the second dose for extended (28 days or more) versus regular (21-27 days) dosing intervals ranged from 0.86 to 0.99 from calendar-time proportional hazards models, and from 0.85 to 0.87 from matching approaches, respectively. Adolescents in the extended dosing groups (including those who did not receive a second dose in the study period) had a higher hazard of infection than those with a regular dosing interval during the intra-dose period (HR 1.66; 95% CI 1.07, 2.59; p = 0.02) after the first dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing an extended dosing interval should consider multiple factors including the degree of myocarditis risk, the degree of protection afforded by each dose, and the extra protection achievable using an extended dosing interval.

Antibody Fc receptor binding and T cell responses to homologous and heterologous immunization with inactivated or mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2

Whole virion inactivated vaccine CoronaVac (C) and Spike (S) mRNA BNT162b2 (B) vaccines differ greatly in their ability to elicit neutralizing antibodies but have somewhat comparable effectiveness in protecting from severe COVID-19. We conducted further analyses for a randomized trial (Cobovax study, NCT05057169) of third dose homologous and heterologous booster vaccination, i.e. four interventions CC-C, CC-B, BB-C and BB-B. Here, we assess vaccine immunogenicity beyond neutralizing function, including S and non-S antibodies with Fc receptor (FcR) binding, antibody avidity and T cell specificity to 6 months post-vaccination. Ancestral and Omicron S-specific IgG and FcR binding are significantly higher by BNT162b2 booster than CoronaVac, regardless of first doses. Nucleocapsid (N) antibodies are only increased in homologous boosted CoronaVac participants (CC-C). CoronaVac primed participants have lower baseline S-specific CD4+ IFNγ+ cells, but are significantly increased by either CoronaVac or BNT162b2 boosters. Priming vaccine content defined T cell peptide specificity preference, with S-specific T cells dominating B primed groups and non-S structural peptides contributing more in C primed groups, regardless of booster type. S-specific CD4+ T cell responses, N-specific antibodies, and antibody effector functions via Fc receptor binding may contribute to protection and compensate for less potent neutralizing responses in CoronaVac recipients.

Population Behavior Changes Underlying Phasic Shifts of SARS-CoV-2 Exposure Settings Across 3 Omicron Epidemic Waves in Hong Kong: Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Exposure risk was shown to have affected individual susceptibility and the epidemic spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of risk by and across exposure settings alongside the variations following the implementation of social distancing interventions are understudied.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to examine the population's trajectory of exposure risk in different settings and its association with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 3 consecutive Omicron epidemic waves in Hong Kong.

METHODS

From March to June 2022, invitation letters were posted to 41,132 randomly selected residential addresses for the recruitment of households into a prospective population cohort. Through web-based monthly surveys coupled with email reminders, a representative from each enrolled household self-reported incidents of SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, their activity pattern in the workplace, and daily and social settings in the preceding month. As a proxy of their exposure risk, the reported activity trend in each setting was differentiated into trajectories based on latent class growth analyses. The associations of different trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infection overall and by Omicron wave (wave 1: February-April; wave 2: May-September; wave 3: October-December) in 2022 were evaluated by using Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 33,501 monthly responses in the observation period of February-December 2022 were collected from 5321 individuals, with 41.7% (2221/5321) being male and a median age of 46 (IQR 34-57) years. Against an expanding COVID-19 vaccination coverage from 81.9% to 95.9% for 2 doses and 20% to 77.7% for 3 doses, the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection escalated from <0.2% to 25.3%, 32.4%, and 43.8% by the end of waves 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Throughout February-December 2022, 52.2% (647/1240) of participants had worked regularly on-site, 28.7% (356/1240) worked remotely, and 19.1% (237/1240) showed an assorted pattern. For daily and social settings, 4 and 5 trajectories were identified, respectively, with 11.5% (142/1240) and 14.6% (181/1240) of the participants gauged to have a high exposure risk. Compared to remote working, working regularly on-site (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% CI 1.19-1.80) and living in a larger household (aHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.18) were associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in wave 1. Those from the highest daily exposure risk trajectory (aHR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07-2.00) and the second highest social exposure risk trajectory (aHR 1.52, 95% CI 1.18-1.97) were also at an increased risk of infection in waves 2 and 3, respectively, relative to the lowest risk trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

In an infection-naive population, SARS-CoV-2 transmission was predominantly initiated at the workplace, accelerated in the household, and perpetuated in the daily and social environments, as stringent restrictions were scaled down. These patterns highlight the phasic shift of exposure settings, which is important for informing the effective calibration of targeted social distancing measures as an alternative to lockdown.

Evaluating the impact of extended dosing intervals on mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in adolescents

Extending the dosing interval of a primary series of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination has been employed to reduce myocarditis risk in adolescents, but previous evaluation of impact on vaccine effectiveness (VE) is limited to risk after second dose. Here, we quantified the impact of the dosing interval based on case notifications and vaccination uptake in Hong Kong from January to April 2022. We estimated that the hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) of infections after the second dose for extended (28 days or more) versus regular (21-27 days) dosing intervals ranged from 0.86 to 0.99 from calendar-time proportional hazards models, and from 0.85 to 0.87 from matching approaches, respectively. Adolescents in the extended dosing groups (including those who did not receive a second dose in the study period) had a higher hazard of infection than those with a regular dosing interval during the intra-dose period (HR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.59; p = 0.02) after the first dose. Implementing an extended dosing interval should consider multiple factors including the degree of myocarditis risk, the degree of protection afforded by each dose, and the extra protection achievable using an extended dosing interval.

Proteomic and Cellular Characterization of Omicron Breakthrough Infections and a Third Homologous or Heterologous Boosting Vaccination in a Longitudinal Cohort

The understanding of dynamic plasma proteome features in hybrid immunity and breakthrough infection is limited. A deeper understanding of the immune differences between heterologous and homologous immunization could assist in the future establishment of vaccination strategies. In this study, 40 participants who received a third dose of either a homologous BBIBP-CorV or a heterologous ZF2001 protein subunit vaccine following two doses of inactivated coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines and 12 patients with BA2.2 breakthrough infections were enrolled. Serum samples were collected at days 0, 28, and 180 following the boosting vaccination and breakthrough and then analyzed using neutralizing antibody tests and mass spectrometer-based proteomics. Mass cytometry of peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples was also performed in this cohort. The chemokine signaling pathway and humoral response markers (IgG2 and IgG3) associated with infection were found to be upregulated in breakthrough infections compared to vaccination-induced immunity. Elevated expression of IGKV, IGHV, IL-17 signaling, and the phagocytosis pathway, along with lower expression of FGL2, were correlated with higher antibody levels in the boosting vaccination groups. The MAPK signaling pathway and Fc gamma R-mediated phagocytosis were more enriched in the heterologous immunization groups than in the homologous immunization groups. Breakthrough infections can trigger more intensive inflammatory chemokine responses than vaccination. T-cell and innate immune activation have been shown to be closely related to enhanced antibody levels after vaccination and therefore might be potential targets for vaccine adjuvant design.

The Impact of Medical Resources and Oral Antiviral Drugs on SARS-CoV-2 Mortality - Hong Kong SAR, China, 2022

Introduction

The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) demonstrates increased transmissibility compared to earlier strains, contributing to a significant number of fatalities in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), China. Adequate medical resources and medications are essential in mitigating these deaths. This study evaluates the effects of supplementary resources from the Chinese mainland during the fifth wave of the pandemic in HKSAR.

Methods

Vector autoregression (VAR) was employed to analyze data from the Oxford coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Government Response Tracker to assess the effectiveness of control measures during five waves of the pandemic in HKSAR. Additionally, a transmission dynamics model was created to investigate the influence of supplementary medical resources from the Chinese mainland and oral medications on mortality.

Results

In the initial four waves, workplace closures, restrictions on public events, international travel bans, and shielding the elderly significantly influenced pandemic management. Contrarily, during the fifth wave, these measures showed no notable effects. When comparing a situation without extra medical resources or COVID-19 oral medication, there was a 17.7% decrease in COVID-19 fatalities with mainland medical resources and an additional 10.2% reduction with oral medications. Together, they contributed to a 26.6% decline in fatalities.

Discussion

With the rapid spread of the virus, regional reallocation of medical resources may reduce mortality even when the local healthcare system is overstretched.

In-hospital mortality during the wild-type, alpha, delta, and omicron SARS-CoV-2 waves: a multinational cohort study in the EuCARE project

Background

Investigating outcomes of hospitalised COVID-19 patients throughout the pandemic is crucial to understand the impact of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. We compared 28-day in-hospital mortality of Wild-type, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variant infections. Whether the difference in risk by variant varied by age was also evaluated.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study including patients ≥18 years, hospitalised between 2020 and 02-01 and 2022-10-15 with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test, from nine countries. Variant was classified based on sequenced viruses or from national public metadata. Mortality was compared using the cumulative incidence function and subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) adjusted for age, sex, calendar time, and comorbidities. Results were shown age-stratified due to effect measure modification (P < 0.0001 for interaction between age and variant).

Findings

We included 38,585 participants: 19,763 Wild-type, 6387 Alpha, 3640 Delta, and 8795 Omicron. The cumulative incidence of mortality decreased throughout the study period. Among participants ≥70 years, the adjusted SHR (95% confidence interval) for Delta vs. Omicron was 1.66 (1.29-2.13). This estimate was 1.66 (1.17-2.36) for Alpha vs. Omicron, and 1.34 (0.92-1.95) for Wild-type vs. Omicron. These were 1.21 (0.81-1.82), 1.21 (0.68-2.17), and 0.98 (0.53-1.82) among unvaccinated participants. When comparing Omicron sublineages, the aSHR for BA.1 was 1.92 (1.43-2.58) compared to BA.2 and 1.52 (1.11-2.08) compared to BA.5.

Interpretation

The herein observed decrease in in-hospital mortality seems to reflect a combined effect of immunity from vaccinations and previous infections, although differences in virulence between SARS-CoV-2 variants may also have contributed.

Funding

European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme.

The impact of Covid-19 vaccination in Aotearoa New Zealand: A modelling study

Aotearoa New Zealand implemented a Covid-19 elimination strategy in 2020 and 2021, which enabled a large majority of the population to be vaccinated before being exposed to the virus. This strategy delivered one of the lowest pandemic mortality rates in the world. However, quantitative estimates of the population-level health benefits of vaccination are lacking. Here, we use a validated mathematical model of Covid-19 in New Zealand to investigate counterfactual scenarios with differing levels of vaccine coverage in different age and ethnicity groups. The model builds on earlier research by adding age- and time-dependent case ascertainment, the effect of antiviral medications, improved hospitalisation rate estimates, and the impact of relaxing control measures. The model was used for scenario analysis and policy advice for the New Zealand Government in 2022 and 2023. We compare the number of Covid-19 hospitalisations, deaths, and years of life lost in each counterfactual scenario to a baseline scenario that is fitted to epidemiological data between January 2022 and June 2023. Our results estimate that vaccines saved 6650 (95% credible interval [4424, 10180]) lives, and prevented 74500 [51000, 115400] years of life lost and 45100 [34400, 55600] hospitalisations during this 18-month period. Making the same comparison before the benefit of antiviral medications is accounted for, the estimated number of lives saved by vaccines increases to 7604 [5080, 11942]. Due to inequities in the vaccine rollout, vaccination rates among Māori were lower than in people of European ethnicity. Our results show that, if vaccination rates had been equitable, an estimated 11%-26% of the 292 Māori Covid-19 deaths that were recorded in this time period could have been prevented. We conclude that Covid-19 vaccination greatly reduced health burden in New Zealand and that equity needs to be a key focus of future vaccination programmes.

Persistence in risk and effect of COVID-19 vaccination on long-term health consequences after SARS-CoV-2 infection

The persisting risk of long-term health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the protection against such risk conferred by COVID-19 vaccination remains unclear. Here we conducted a retrospective territory-wide cohort study on 1,175,277 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection stratified by their vaccination status and non-infected controls to evaluate the risk of clinical sequelae, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality using a territory-wide public healthcare database with population-based vaccination records in Hong Kong. A progressive reduction in risk of all-cause mortality was observed over one year between patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and controls. Patients with complete vaccination or have received booster dose incurred a lower risk of health consequences including major cardiovascular diseases, and all-cause mortality than unvaccinated or patients with incomplete vaccination 30-90 days after infection. Completely vaccinated and patients with booster dose of vaccines did not incur significant higher risk of health consequences from 271 and 91 days of infection onwards, respectively, whilst un-vaccinated and incompletely vaccinated patients continued to incur a greater risk of clinical sequelae for up to a year following SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study provided real-world evidence supporting the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in reducing the risk of long-term health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its persistence following infection.

SARS-CoV-2 ORF3a Protein as a Therapeutic Target against COVID-19 and Long-Term Post-Infection Effects

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has posed unparalleled challenges due to its rapid transmission, ability to mutate, high mortality and morbidity, and enduring health complications. Vaccines have exhibited effectiveness, but their efficacy diminishes over time while new variants continue to emerge. Antiviral medications offer a viable alternative, but their success has been inconsistent. Therefore, there remains an ongoing need to identify innovative antiviral drugs for treating COVID-19 and its post-infection complications. The ORF3a (open reading frame 3a) protein found in SARS-CoV-2, represents a promising target for antiviral treatment due to its multifaceted role in viral pathogenesis, cytokine storms, disease severity, and mortality. ORF3a contributes significantly to viral pathogenesis by facilitating viral assembly and release, essential processes in the viral life cycle, while also suppressing the body's antiviral responses, thus aiding viral replication. ORF3a also has been implicated in triggering excessive inflammation, characterized by NF-κB-mediated cytokine production, ultimately leading to apoptotic cell death and tissue damage in the lungs, kidneys, and the central nervous system. Additionally, ORF3a triggers the activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome, inciting a cytokine storm, which is a major contributor to the severity of the disease and subsequent mortality. As with the spike protein, ORF3a also undergoes mutations, and certain mutant variants correlate with heightened disease severity in COVID-19. These mutations may influence viral replication and host cellular inflammatory responses. While establishing a direct link between ORF3a and mortality is difficult, its involvement in promoting inflammation and exacerbating disease severity likely contributes to higher mortality rates in severe COVID-19 cases. This review offers a comprehensive and detailed exploration of ORF3a's potential as an innovative antiviral drug target. Additionally, we outline potential strategies for discovering and developing ORF3a inhibitor drugs to counteract its harmful effects, alleviate tissue damage, and reduce the severity of COVID-19 and its lingering complications.

Wastewater genomic sequencing for SARS-CoV-2 variants surveillance in wastewater-based epidemiology applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been widely used as a complementary approach to SARS-CoV-2 clinical surveillance. Wastewater genomic sequencing could provide valuable information on the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in the surveyed population. However, reliable detection and quantification of variants or mutations remain challenging. In this study, we used mock wastewater samples created by spiking SARS-CoV-2 variant standard RNA into wastewater RNA to evaluate the impacts of sequencing throughput on various aspects such as genome coverage, mutation detection, and SARS-CoV-2 variant deconvolution. We found that wastewater datasets with sequencing throughput greater than 0.5 Gb yielded reliable results in genomic analysis. In addition, using in silico mock datasets, we evaluated the performance of the adopted pipeline for variant deconvolution. By sequencing 86 wastewater samples covering more than 6 million people over 7 months, we presented two use cases of wastewater genomic sequencing for surveying COVID-19 in Hong Kong in WBE applications, including the replacement of Delta variants by Omicron variants, and the prevalence and development trends of three Omicron sublineages. Importantly, the wastewater genomic sequencing data were able to reveal the variant trends 16 days before the clinical data did. By investigating mutations of the spike (S) gene of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we also showed the potential of wastewater genomic sequencing in identifying novel mutations and unique alleles. Overall, our study demonstrated the crucial role of wastewater genomic surveillance in providing valuable insights into the emergence and monitoring of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and laid a solid foundation for the development of genomic analysis methodologies for WBE of other novel emerging viruses in the future.

In Vitro Efficacy of Antivirals and Monoclonal Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineages XBB.1.9.1, XBB.1.9.3, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, XBB.2.4, BQ.1.1.45, CH.1.1, and CL.1

The spread of COVID-19 continues, expressed by periodic wave-like increases in morbidity and mortality. The reason for the periodic increases in morbidity is the emergence and spread of novel genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2. A decrease in the efficacy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) has been reported, especially against Omicron subvariants. There have been reports of a decrease in the efficacy of specific antiviral drugs as a result of mutations in the genes of non-structural proteins. This indicates the urgent need for practical healthcare to constantly monitor pathogen variability and its effect on the efficacy of preventive and therapeutic drugs. As part of this study, we report the results of the continuous monitoring of COVID-19 in Moscow using genetic and virological methods. As a result of this monitoring, we determined the dominant genetic variants and identified the variants that are most widespread, not only in Moscow, but also in other countries. A collection of viruses from more than 500 SARS-CoV-2 isolates has been obtained and characterized. The genetic lines XBB.1.9.1, XBB.1.9.3, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, XBB.2.4, BQ.1.1.45, CH.1.1, and CL.1, representing the greatest concern, were identified among the dominant variants. We studied the in vitro efficacy of mAbs Tixagevimab + Cilgavimab (Evusheld), Sotrovimab, Regdanvimab, Casirivimab + Imdevimab (Ronapreve), and Bebtelovimab, as well as the specific antiviral drugs Remdesivir, Molnupiravir, and Nirmatrelvir, against these genetic lines. At the current stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of mAbs developed against early SARS-CoV-2 variants has little prospect. Specific antiviral drugs retain their activity, but further monitoring is needed to assess the risk of their efficacy being reduced and adjust recommendations for their use.

Prevalence and risk factors of long COVID 6-12 months after infection with the Omicron variant among nonhospitalized patients in Hong Kong

Long COVID has been reported among patients with COVID-19, but little is known about the prevalence and risk factors associated with long COVID 6-12 months after infection with the Omicron variant. This is a large-scale retrospective study. A total of 6242 out of 12 950 nonhospitalized subjects of all ages with SARS-CoV-2 infection (confirmed by polymerase chain reaction/rapid antigen test) during the Omicron dominant outbreak (December 31, 2021-May 6, 2022) in Hong Kong were included. Prevalence of long COVID, frequencies of symptoms, and risk factors were analyzed. Three thousand four hundred and thirty (55.0%) subjects reported at least one long COVID symptom. The most reported symptom was fatigue (1241, 36.2%). Female gender, middle age, obesity, comorbidities, vaccination after infection, having more symptoms, and presenting fatigue/chest tightness/headache/diarrhea in the acute stage of illness were identified as associated risk factors for long COVID. Patients who had received three or more doses of vaccine were not associated with a lower risk of long COVID (adjusted odds ratio 1.105, 95% confidence interval 0.985-1.239, p = 0.088). Among patients with at least three doses of vaccine, there was no significant difference in the risk of long COVID between the CoronaVac vaccine and BNT162b2 vaccine (p > 0.05). Omicron infection can lead to long COVID in a significant proportion of nonhospitalized patients 6-12 months after infection. Further investigation is needed to uncover the mechanisms underlying the development of long COVID and determine the impact of various risk factors such as vaccines.