Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management

Effects of protection and temperature variation on temporal stability in a marine reserve network

Understanding the drivers of ecosystem stability has been a key focus of modern ecology as the impacts of the Anthropocene become more prevalent and extreme. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are tools used globally to promote biodiversity and mediate anthropogenic impacts. However, assessing the stability of natural ecosystems and responses to management actions is inherently challenging due to the complex dynamics of communities with many interdependent taxa. Using a 12-year time series of subtidal community structure in an MPA network in the Channel Islands (United States), we estimated species interaction strength (competition and predation), prey species synchrony, and temporal stability in trophic networks, as well as temporal variation in sea surface temperature to explore the causal drivers of temporal stability at community and metacommunity scales. At the community scale, only trophic networks in MPAs at Santa Rosa Island showed greater temporal stability than reference sites, likely driven by reduced prey synchrony. Across islands, competition was sometimes greater and predation always greater in MPAs compared with reference sites. Increases in interaction strength resulted in lower temporal stability of trophic networks. Although MPAs reduced prey synchrony at the metacommunity scale, reductions were insufficient to stabilize trophic networks. In contrast, temporal variation in sea surface temperature had strong positive direct effects on stability at the regional scale and indirect effects at the local scale through reductions in species interaction strength. Although MPAs can be effective management strategies for protecting certain species or locations, our findings for this MPA network suggest that temperature variation has a stronger influence on metacommunity temporal stability by mediating species interactions and promoting a mosaic of spatiotemporal variation in community structure of trophic networks. By capturing the full spectrum of environmental variation in network planning, MPAs will have the greatest capacity to promote ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

Synthesis of causal and surrogate models by non-equilibrium thermodynamics in biological systems

We developed a model to represent the time evolution phenomena of life through physics constraints. To do this, we took into account that living organisms are open systems that exchange messages through intracellular communication, intercellular communication and sensory systems, and introduced the concept of a message force field. As a result, we showed that the maximum entropy generation principle is valid in time evolution. Then, in order to explain life phenomena based on this principle, we modelled the living system as a nonlinear oscillator coupled by a message and derived the governing equations. The governing equations consist of two laws: one states that the systems are synchronized when the variation of the natural frequencies between them is small or the coupling strength through the message is sufficiently large, and the other states that the synchronization is broken by the proliferation of biological systems. Next, to simulate the phenomena using data obtained from observations of the temporal evolution of life, we developed an inference model that combines physics constraints and a discrete surrogate model using category theory, and simulated the phenomenon of early embryogenesis using this inference model. The results show that symmetry creation and breaking based on message force fields can be widely used to model life phenomena.

A multi-predator trophic database for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

The California Current Trophic Database (CCTD) was developed at NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center in collaboration with numerous diet data contributors. We compiled the CCTD from twenty-four data sets, representing both systematic collections and directed trophic studies. Diet composition data, including stomach and scat samples, were obtained from 105,694 individual predators among 143 taxa collected throughout the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) from 1967-2019. Predator taxa consist of squids (n = 5), elasmobranchs (n = 13), bony fishes (n = 118), and marine mammals (n = 7). Extensive time series are available for some predators (e.g., California Sea Lion, Pacific Hake, Chinook Salmon). The CCTD represents the largest compilation of raw trophic data within the CCLME, allowing for more refined analyses and modeling studies within this region. Our intention is to further augment and periodically update the dataset as additional historical or contemporary data become available to increase its utility and impact.

An anchovy ecosystem indicator of marine predator foraging and reproduction

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandt's cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.

When is a commercial fish species recovered?

The need to reverse decades of species and ecosystem decline has created an imperative to understand the governance of recovery. To pursue this imperative, we ask a question at the centre of recovery governance: when is a commercial species recovered? To answer this question we conduct a case study of northern cod (Gadus morhua, NAFO subdivision 2J3KL), a species perhaps best known for the scale of its biological collapse and subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Northern cod has experienced recent biomass growth, raising the question of when the species can once again be the target of commercial fishing. We conducted 26 interviews with key stakeholders from Newfoundland and Labrador's fishing sector and identify three core discourses characterizing the governance of the northern cod recovery: (1) the biological recovery discourse, (2) the industrial recovery discourse, and (3) the community recovery discourse. We find these recovery discourses are composed of five dimensions: (i) epistemic orientation and inputs, (ii) emphasis on institutions and rules, (iii) framings of risk, (iv) stakeholder priorities, goals, and interests, and (v) different lessons learned from the collapse. Our findings suggest that the recovery of a commercial species is not determined only by biological metrics, but also how decision-makers view the value of different knowledge systems, what frames of risk they find most salient, and the lessons they glean from collapse on behalf of the societies they represent. Our discussion notes that co-productive approaches could supplement adaptive approaches as a potential strategy to reconcile competing discourses.

Transient dynamics during kelp forest recovery from fishing across multiple trophic levels

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management.

Wildlife-Friendly Livestock Management Promotes Mammalian Biodiversity Recovery on a Semi-Arid Karoo Farm in South Africa

Agriculture is an essential production system used to feed the growing human population, but at the same time has become a major driver of biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. Employing production methods that restore degraded landscapes can have a positive impact on biodiversity, whilst improving food production. We assessed how mammalian biodiversity, specifically richness and their relative abundances varied on five Karoo farms in South Africa that had been amalgamated and subjected to a transition from traditional livestock grazing techniques (sporadic rotational grazing and lethal predator control) to wildlife-friendly non-lethal predator management, using human shepherding of livestock under a high-density short-duration grazing regime. We used camera trap data collected over a 4-year period, to measure mammalian species richness, distribution and relative abundance on the wildlife-friendly farm to investigate temporal changes throughout the conversion from traditional farming practices. In the last year of the study (2019) additional cameras were used to provide a spatial comparison of mammalian species on the wildlife-friendly farm to two neighboring farms, a traditional livestock farm using lethal predator controls, and a game farm. We found that mammalian species richness increased year on year resulting in a significant increase of 24% over the duration of the study. Herbivores showed an increase of 33% in the number of species detected over the years, while predator species increased by 8%. The relative abundance and distribution of most species also showed increases as the conversion process took place. For example, 73% of the herbivore species detected throughout the study increased in their relative abundance. Similarly, 67% of all species showed an increase in the number of sites occupied over the years. In the final year of the study the wildlife-friendly farm had more mammalian species compared to the game farm and traditional livestock farm, with the latter two sites having a similar number of species when compared to the commencement of the conversion of the wildlife-friendly site. These broad improvements in mammalian biodiversity demonstrate that livestock production can benefit local mammalian biodiversity through a combination of herder grazing management and wildlife-friendly farming.

Risk of extinction of a unique skate population due to predation by a recovering marine mammal

Benefitting from reduced harvesting and an end to culling, many marine mammals are now recovering from past overexploitation. These recoveries represent important conservation successes but present a serious conservation problem when the recovering mammals are predators of species of conservation concern. Here, we examine the role of predation by recovering grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the near-extinction of a unique skate population in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) in Atlantic Canada. Winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the sGSL are distinct from winter skate elsewhere and may represent an endemic species. Their adult abundance has declined by 98% since 1980, and these skates are now detectable in only a small fraction of their former range. Population modeling indicates that the ongoing collapse of this population is due to increases in the natural mortality of adults. Based on model projections, this population would be extinct by mid-century if its current rate of productivity were to persist. A second population model incorporated predation by grey seals. Model estimates of skate consumption by seals were consistent with historical and recent estimates of the contribution of skates to grey seal diets. The estimated consumption accounted for the increases in the natural mortality of adult skates. A Type III functional response for grey seals preying on winter skate emerged from the model results. This indicates that, when skate abundance is very low, grey seals are expected to switch to alternate prey, resulting in declines in the mortality of skates due to predation. Consequently, contrary to projections at current productivity, winter skate are expected to be trapped at very low abundance in a "predator pit" instead of declining to extinction. Nonetheless, extinction risk would remain very high at the very small population size in the predator pit. Our results emphasize the need for an ecosystem-based approach to the management of living resources in this ecosystem.

Non-trophic impacts from white sharks complicate population recovery for sea otters

Complex interactions between protected populations may challenge the recovery of whole ecosystems. In California, white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) mistargeting southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) are an emergent impact to sea otter recovery, inhibiting the broader ecosystem restoration sea otters might provide. Here, we integrate and analyze tracking and stranding data to compare the phenology of interactions between white sharks and their targeted prey (elephant seals, Mirounga angustirostris) with those of mistargeted prey (sea otters, humans). Pronounced seasonal peaks in shark bites to otters and humans overlap in the late boreal summer, immediately before the annual adult white shark migration to elephant seal rookeries. From 1997 to 2017, the seasonal period when sharks bite otters expanded from 2 to 8 months of the year and occurred primarily in regions where kelp cover declined. Immature and male otters, demographics most associated with range expansion, were disproportionately impacted. While sea otters are understood to play a keystone role in kelp forests, recent ecosystem shifts are revealing unprecedented bottom-up and top-down interactions. Such shifts challenge ecosystem management programs that rely on static models of species interactions.

Predator-prey role reversal may impair the recovery of declining pike populations

Many fish populations have experienced declines in recent decades due to anthropogenic disturbances, such as overfishing and habitat exploitation. Despite management actions, many populations show a limited capacity to recover. This may be attributed to reversal of predator-prey roles, yet empirical evidence to that effect remains scarce. Here, we combine field and laboratory studies to investigate the interaction between pike (Esox lucius), a large keystone top predatory fish, and the small-bodied mesopredatory threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in the Baltic Sea where pike populations have declined. Our data suggest that stickleback predation on pike larvae depletes a large proportion of the recruitment and influences the size distribution through size-selective predation, which is corroborated by a gape-limitation experiment and diet analysis of wild-captured sticklebacks. The effects of stickleback predation are present across several populations and years, and our data suggest that early arrival of sticklebacks has stronger effects on juvenile pike survival. Finally, we use data on pike gape-limitation and the size distribution of sticklebacks to illustrate the process of role reversal. These findings suggest that mesopredator behaviour can reduce recruitment of a top predator species and impair the capacity of populations to recover. This emphasizes predator-prey role reversal as an important ecological and evolutionary driver that influences the outcome of restoration and management actions.

Top-down effects of repatriating bald eagles hinder jointly recovering competitors

The recovery of piscivorous birds around the world is touted as one of the great conservation successes of the 21st century, but for some species, this success was short-lived. Bald eagles, ospreys and great blue herons began repatriating Voyageurs National Park, USA, in the mid-20th century. However, after 1990, only eagles continued their recovery, while osprey and heron recovery failed for unknown reasons. We aimed to evaluate whether top-down effects of bald eagles and bottom-up effects of inclement weather, habitat quality and fish resources contributed to the failed recovery of ospreys and herons in a protected area. We quantified the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up factors on nest colonization, persistence (i.e., nest reuse) and success for ospreys, and occurrence and size of heronries using 26 years (1986-2012) of spatially explicit monitoring data coupled with multi-response hierarchical models and Bayesian variable selection approaches. Bald eagles were previously shown to recover faster due to intensive nest protection and management. Increased numbers of eagles were associated with a reduction in the numbers of osprey nests, their nesting success and heronry size, while higher local densities of nesting eagles deterred heronries nearby. We found little evidence of bottom-up limitations on the failed recovery of herons and ospreys. We present a conservation conundrum: bald eagles are top predators and a flagship species of conservation that have benefited from intensive protection, but this likely hindered the recovery of ospreys and herons. Returning top predators, or rewilding, is widely promoted as a conservation strategy for top-down ecosystem recovery, but managing top predators in isolation of jointly recovering species can halt or reverse ecosystem recovery. Previous studies warn of the potential consequences of ignoring biotic interactions amongst recovering species, but we go further by quantifying how these interactions contributed to failed recoveries via impacts on the nesting demography of jointly recovering species. Multi-species management is paramount to realizing the ecosystem benefits of top predator recovery.

Restoration and repair of Earth's damaged ecosystems

Given that few ecosystems on the Earth have been unaffected by humans, restoring them holds great promise for stemming the biodiversity crisis and ensuring ecosystem services are provided to humanity. Nonetheless, few studies have documented the recovery of ecosystems globally or the rates at which ecosystems recover. Even fewer have addressed the added benefit of actively restoring ecosystems versus allowing them to recover without human intervention following the cessation of a disturbance. Our meta-analysis of 400 studies worldwide that document recovery from large-scale disturbances, such as oil spills, agriculture and logging, suggests that though ecosystems are progressing towards recovery following disturbances, they rarely recover completely. This result reinforces conservation of intact ecosystems as a key strategy for protecting biodiversity. Recovery rates slowed down with time since the disturbance ended, suggesting that the final stages of recovery are the most challenging to achieve. Active restoration did not result in faster or more complete recovery than simply ending the disturbances ecosystems face. Our results on the added benefit of restoration must be interpreted cautiously, because few studies directly compared different restoration actions in the same location after the same disturbance. The lack of consistent value added of active restoration following disturbance suggests that passive recovery should be considered as a first option; if recovery is slow, then active restoration actions should be better tailored to overcome specific obstacles to recovery and achieve restoration goals. We call for a more strategic investment of limited restoration resources into innovative collaborative efforts between scientists, local communities and practitioners to develop restoration techniques that are ecologically, economically and socially viable.

Rewilding the world's large carnivores

Earth's terrestrial large carnivores form a highly endangered group of species with unique conservation challenges. The majority of these species have experienced major geographical range contractions, which puts many of them at high risk of extinction or of becoming ecologically ineffective. As a result of these range contractions and the associated loss of intact predator guilds, the ecological effects of these species are now far less widespread and common, with inevitable consequences for ecosystem function. Rewilding-which includes reintroducing species into portions of their former ranges-is an important carnivore conservation tool and means for restoring top-down ecological regulation. We conducted a global analysis of potential reintroduction areas. We first considered protected areas where one or more large carnivore species have been extirpated, identifying a total of 130 protected areas that may be most suitable for carnivore reintroduction. These protected areas include sites in every major world region, and are most commonly found in Mongolia (n = 13), Canada (n = 11), Thailand (n = 9), Namibia (n = 6), Indonesia (n = 6) and Australia (n = 6). We considered the sizes of protected areas, their levels of protection, the extent of human impacts within and around the protected areas, and the status of prey species in the protected areas. Finally, we used the 'last of the wild' approach to identify contiguous low human footprint regions within the former ranges of each species, identifying an additional 150 areas which could be the focus of conservation efforts to create conditions conducive to reintroductions. These low footprint regions were most commonly found in the USA (n = 14), Russia (n = 14), Canada (n = 10), China (n = 9) and Mauritania (n = 8). Together, our results show the global-scale potential for carnivore rewilding projects to both conserve these species and provide critical ecological and social benefits.

Biogeographic constraints to marine conservation in a changing climate

The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions.

Competing tradeoffs between increasing marine mammal predation and fisheries harvest of Chinook salmon

Many marine mammal predators, particularly pinnipeds, have increased in abundance in recent decades, generating new challenges for balancing human uses with recovery goals via ecosystem-based management. We used a spatio-temporal bioenergetics model of the Northeast Pacific Ocean to quantify how predation by three species of pinnipeds and killer whales (Orcinus orca) on Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) has changed since the 1970s along the west coast of North America, and compare these estimates to salmon fisheries. We find that from 1975 to 2015, biomass of Chinook salmon consumed by pinnipeds and killer whales increased from 6,100 to 15,200 metric tons (from 5 to 31.5 million individual salmon). Though there is variation across the regions in our model, overall, killer whales consume the largest biomass of Chinook salmon, but harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) consume the largest number of individuals. The decrease in adult Chinook salmon harvest from 1975-2015 was 16,400 to 9,600 metric tons. Thus, Chinook salmon removals (harvest + consumption) increased in the past 40 years despite catch reductions by fisheries, due to consumption by recovering pinnipeds and endangered killer whales. Long-term management strategies for Chinook salmon will need to consider potential conflicts between rebounding predators or endangered predators and prey.