Priority list of biodiversity metrics to observe from space

Uncertainty quantification for probabilistic machine learning in earth observation using conformal prediction

Machine learning is increasingly applied to Earth Observation (EO) data to obtain datasets that contribute towards international accords. However, these datasets contain inherent uncertainty that needs to be quantified reliably to avoid negative consequences. In response to the increased need to report uncertainty, we bring attention to the promise of conformal prediction within the domain of EO. Unlike previous uncertainty quantification methods, conformal prediction offers statistically valid prediction regions while concurrently supporting any machine learning model and data distribution. To support the need for conformal prediction, we reviewed EO datasets and found that only 22.5% of the datasets incorporated a degree of uncertainty information, with unreliable methods prevalent. Current open implementations require moving large amounts of EO data to the algorithms. We introduced Google Earth Engine native modules that bring conformal prediction to the data and compute, facilitating the integration of uncertainty quantification into existing traditional and deep learning modelling workflows. To demonstrate the versatility and scalability of these tools we apply them to valued EO applications spanning local to global extents, regression, and classification tasks. Subsequently, we discuss the opportunities arising from the use of conformal prediction in EO. We anticipate that accessible and easy-to-use tools, such as those provided here, will drive wider adoption of rigorous uncertainty quantification in EO, thereby enhancing the reliability of downstream uses such as operational monitoring and decision-making.

Long-term annual estimation of forest above ground biomass, canopy cover, and height from airborne and spaceborne sensors synergies in the Iberian Peninsula

The Mediterranean Basin has experienced substantial land use changes as traditional agriculture decreased and population migrated from rural to urban areas, which have resulted in a large forest cover increase. The combination of Landsat time series, providing spectral information, with lidar, offering three-dimensional insights, has emerged as a viable option for the large-scale cartography of forest structural attributes across large time spans. Here we develop and test a comprehensive framework to map forest above ground biomass, canopy cover and forest height in two regions spanning the most representative biomes in the peninsular Spain, Mediterranean (Madrid region) and temperate (Basque Country). As reference, we used lidar-based direct estimates of stand height and forest canopy cover. The reference biomass and volume were predicted from lidar metrics. Landsat time series predictors included annual temporal profiles of band reflectance and vegetation indices for the 1985-2023 period. Additional predictor variables including synthetic aperture radar, disturbance history, topography and forest type were also evaluated to optimize forest structural attributes retrieval. The estimates were independently validated at two temporal scales, i) the year of model calibration and ii) the year of the second lidar survey. The final models used as predictor variables only Landsat based metrics and topographic information, as the available SAR time-series were relatively short (1991-2011) and disturbance information did not decrease the estimation error. Model accuracies were higher in the Mediterranean forests when compared to the temperate forests (R2 = 0.6-0.8 vs. 0.4-0.5). Between the first (1985-1989) and the last (2020-2023) decades of the monitoring period the average forest cover increased from 21 ± 2% to 32 ± 1%, mean height increased from 6.6 ± 0.43 m to 7.9 ± 0.18 m and the mean biomass from 31.9 ± 3.6 t ha-1 to 50.4 ± 1 t ha-1 for the Mediterranean forests. In temperate forests, the average canopy cover increased from 55 ± 4% to 59 ± 3%, mean height increased from 15.8 ± 0.77 m to 17.3 ± 0.21m, while the growing stock volume increased from 137.8 ± 8.2 to 151.5 ± 3.8 m3 ha-1. Our results suggest that multispectral data can be successfully linked with lidar to provide continuous information on forest height, cover, and biomass trends.

Disentangling linkages between satellite-derived indicators of forest structure and productivity for ecosystem monitoring

The essential biodiversity variables (EBV) framework has been proposed as a monitoring system of standardized, comparable variables that represents a minimum set of biological information to monitor biodiversity change at large spatial extents. Six classes of EBVs (genetic composition, species populations, species traits, community composition, ecosystem structure and ecosystem function) are defined, a number of which are ideally suited to observation and monitoring by remote sensing systems. We used moderate-resolution remotely sensed indicators representing two ecosystem-level EBV classes (ecosystem structure and function) to assess their complementarity and redundancy across a range of ecosystems encompassing significant environmental gradients. Redundancy analyses found that remote sensing indicators of forest structure were not strongly related to indicators of ecosystem productivity (represented by the Dynamic Habitat Indices; DHIs), with the structural information only explaining 15.7% of the variation in the DHIs. Complex metrics of forest structure, such as aboveground biomass, did not contribute additional information over simpler height-based attributes that can be directly estimated with light detection and ranging (LIDAR) observations. With respect to ecosystem conditions, we found that forest types and ecosystems dominated by coniferous trees had less redundancy between the remote sensing indicators when compared to broadleaf or mixed forest types. Likewise, higher productivity environments exhibited the least redundancy between indicators, in contrast to more environmentally stressed regions. We suggest that biodiversity researchers continue to exploit multiple dimensions of remote sensing data given the complementary information they provide on structure and function focused EBVs, which makes them jointly suitable for monitoring forest ecosystems.

Monitoring vegetation- and geodiversity with remote sensing and traits

Geodiversity has shaped and structured the Earth's surface at all spatio-temporal scales, not only through long-term processes but also through medium- and short-term processes. Geodiversity is, therefore, a key control and regulating variable in the overall development of landscapes and biodiversity. However, climate change and land use intensity are leading to major changes and disturbances in bio- and geodiversity. For sustainable ecosystem management, temporal, economically viable and standardized monitoring is needed to monitor and model the effects and changes in vegetation- and geodiversity. RS approaches have been used for this purpose for decades. However, to understand in detail how RS approaches capture vegetation- and geodiversity, the aim of this paper is to describe how five features of vegetation- and geodiversity are captured using RS technologies, namely: (i) trait diversity, (ii) phylogenetic/genese diversity, (iii) structural diversity, (iv) taxonomic diversity and (v) functional diversity. Trait diversity is essential for establishing the other four. Traits provide a crucial interface between in situ, close-range, aerial and space-based RS monitoring approaches. The trait approach allows complex data of different types and formats to be linked using the latest semantic data integration techniques, which will enable ecosystem integrity monitoring and modelling in the future. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

Six Steps towards a Spatial Design for Large-Scale Pollinator Surveillance Monitoring

Despite the importance of pollinators to ecosystem functioning and human food production, comprehensive pollinator monitoring data are still lacking across most regions of the world. Policy-makers have recently prioritised the development of large-scale monitoring programmes for pollinators to better understand how populations respond to land use, environmental change and restoration measures in the long term. Designing such a monitoring programme is challenging, partly because it requires both ecological knowledge and advanced knowledge in sampling design. This study aims to develop a conceptual framework to facilitate the spatial sampling design of large-scale surveillance monitoring. The system is designed to detect changes in pollinator species abundances and richness, focusing on temperate agroecosystems. The sampling design needs to be scientifically robust to address questions of agri-environmental policy at the scales of interest. To this end, we followed a six-step procedure as follows: (1) defining the spatial sampling units, (2) defining and delimiting the monitoring area, (3) deciding on the general sampling strategy, (4) determining the sample size, (5) specifying the sampling units per sampling interval, and (6) specifying the pollinator survey plots within each sampling unit. As a case study, we apply this framework to the "Wild bee monitoring in agricultural landscapes of Germany" programme. We suggest this six-step procedure as a conceptual guideline for the spatial sampling design of future large-scale pollinator monitoring initiatives.

Land potential assessment and trend-analysis using 2000-2021 FAPAR monthly time-series at 250 m spatial resolution

The article presents results of using remote sensing images and machine learning to map and assess land potential based on time-series of potential Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) composites. Land potential here refers to the potential vegetation productivity in the hypothetical absence of short-term anthropogenic influence, such as intensive agriculture and urbanization. Knowledge on this ecological land potential could support the assessment of levels of land degradation as well as restoration potentials. Monthly aggregated FAPAR time-series of three percentiles (0.05, 0.50 and 0.95 probability) at 250 m spatial resolution were derived from the 8-day GLASS FAPAR V6 product for 2000-2021 and used to determine long-term trends in FAPAR, as well as to model potential FAPAR in the absence of human pressure. CCa 3 million training points sampled from 12,500 locations across the globe were overlaid with 68 bio-physical variables representing climate, terrain, landform, and vegetation cover, as well as several variables representing human pressure including: population count, cropland intensity, nightlights and a human footprint index. The training points were used in an ensemble machine learning model that stacks three base learners (extremely randomized trees, gradient descended trees and artificial neural network) using a linear regressor as meta-learner. The potential FAPAR was then projected by removing the impact of urbanization and intensive agriculture in the covariate layers. The results of strict cross-validation show that the global distribution of FAPAR can be explained with an R2 of 0.89, with the most important covariates being growing season length, forest cover indicator and annual precipitation. From this model, a global map of potential monthly FAPAR for the recent year (2021) was produced, and used to predict gaps in actual vs. potential FAPAR. The produced global maps of actual vs. potential FAPAR and long-term trends were each spatially matched with stable and transitional land cover classes. The assessment showed large negative FAPAR gaps (actual lower than potential) for classes: urban, needle-leave deciduous trees, and flooded shrub or herbaceous cover, while strong negative FAPAR trends were found for classes: urban, sparse vegetation and rainfed cropland. On the other hand, classes: irrigated or post-flooded cropland, tree cover mixed leaf type, and broad-leave deciduous showed largely positive trends. The framework allows land managers to assess potential land degradation from two aspects: as an actual declining trend in observed FAPAR and as a difference between actual and potential vegetation FAPAR.

Integrating field- and remote sensing data to perceive species heterogeneity across a climate gradient

Tropical forests exhibit significant diversity and heterogeneity in species distribution. Some tree species spread abundantly, impacting the functional aspects of communities. Understanding how these facets respond to climate change is crucial. Field data from four protected areas (PAs) were combined with high-resolution Airborne Visible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) datasets to extract large-scale plot data of abundant species and their functional traits. A supervised component generalized linear regression (SCGLR) model was used to correlate climate components with the distribution of abundant species across PAs. The recorded rainfall gradient influenced the proportion of PA-specific species in the observed species assemblages. Community weighted means (CWMs) of biochemical traits showed better correlation values (0.85-0.87) between observed and predicted values compared to biophysical traits (0.52-0.79). The model-based projection revealed distinct distribution responses of each abundant species to the climate gradient. Functional diversity and functional traits maps highlighted the interplay between species heterogeneity and climate. The appearance dynamics of abundant species in dark diversity across PAs demonstrated their assortment strategy in response to the climate gradient. These observations can significantly aid in the ecological management of PAs exposed to climate dynamics.

A high-resolution canopy height model of the Earth

The worldwide variation in vegetation height is fundamental to the global carbon cycle and central to the functioning of ecosystems and their biodiversity. Geospatially explicit and, ideally, highly resolved information is required to manage terrestrial ecosystems, mitigate climate change and prevent biodiversity loss. Here we present a comprehensive global canopy height map at 10 m ground sampling distance for the year 2020. We have developed a probabilistic deep learning model that fuses sparse height data from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) space-borne LiDAR mission with dense optical satellite images from Sentinel-2. This model retrieves canopy-top height from Sentinel-2 images anywhere on Earth and quantifies the uncertainty in these estimates. Our approach improves the retrieval of tall canopies with typically high carbon stocks. According to our map, only 5% of the global landmass is covered by trees taller than 30 m. Further, we find that only 34% of these tall canopies are located within protected areas. Thus, the approach can serve ongoing efforts in forest conservation and has the potential to foster advances in climate, carbon and biodiversity modelling.

Mapping canopy traits over Québec using airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy

The advent of new spaceborne imaging spectrometers offers new opportunities for ecologists to map vegetation traits at global scales. However, to date most imaging spectroscopy studies exploiting satellite spectrometers have been constrained to the landscape scale. In this paper we present a new method to map vegetation traits at the landscape scale and upscale trait maps to the continental level, using historical spaceborne imaging spectroscopy (Hyperion) to derive estimates of leaf mass per area, nitrogen, and carbon concentrations of forests in Québec, Canada. We compare estimates for each species with reference field values and obtain good agreement both at the landscape and continental scales, with patterns consistent with the leaf economic spectrum. By exploiting the Hyperion satellite archive to map these traits and successfully upscale the estimates to the continental scale, we demonstrate the great potential of recent and upcoming spaceborne spectrometers to benefit plant biodiversity monitoring and conservation efforts.

StrucNet: a global network for automated vegetation structure monitoring

Climate change and increasing human activities are impacting ecosystems and their biodiversity. Quantitative measurements of essential biodiversity variables (EBV) and essential climate variables are used to monitor biodiversity and carbon dynamics and evaluate policy and management interventions. Ecosystem structure is at the core of EBVs and carbon stock estimation and can help to inform assessments of species and species diversity. Ecosystem structure is also used as an indirect indicator of habitat quality and expected species richness or species community composition. Spaceborne measurements can provide large-scale insight into monitoring the structural dynamics of ecosystems, but they generally lack consistent, robust, timely and detailed information regarding their full three-dimensional vegetation structure at local scales. Here we demonstrate the potential of high-frequency ground-based laser scanning to systematically monitor structural changes in vegetation. We present a proof-of-concept high-temporal ecosystem structure time series of 5 years in a temperate forest using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). We also present data from automated high-temporal laser scanning that can allow upscaling of vegetation structure scanning, overcoming the limitations of a typically opportunistic TLS measurement approach. Automated monitoring will be a critical component to build a network of field monitoring sites that can provide the required calibration data for satellite missions to effectively monitor the structural dynamics of vegetation over large areas. Within this perspective, we reflect on how this network could be designed and discuss implementation pathways.

LiDAR GEDI derived tree canopy height heterogeneity reveals patterns of biodiversity in forest ecosystems

The "Height Variation Hypothesis" is an indirect approach used to estimate forest biodiversity through remote sensing data, stating that greater tree height heterogeneity (HH) measured by CHM LiDAR data indicates higher forest structure complexity and tree species diversity. This approach has traditionally been analyzed using only airborne LiDAR data, which limits its application to the availability of the dedicated flight campaigns. In this study we analyzed the relationship between tree species diversity and HH, calculated with four different heterogeneity indices using two freely available CHMs derived from the new space-borne GEDI LiDAR data. The first, with a spatial resolution of 30 m, was produced through a regression tree machine learning algorithm integrating GEDI LiDAR data and Landsat optical information. The second, with a spatial resolution of 10 m, was created using Sentinel-2 images and a deep learning convolutional neural network. We tested this approach separately in 30 forest plots situated in the northern Italian Alps, in 100 plots in the forested area of Traunstein (Germany) and successively in all the 130 plots through a cross-validation analysis. Forest density information was also included as influencing factor in a multiple regression analysis. Our results show that the GEDI CHMs can be used to assess biodiversity patterns in forest ecosystems through the estimation of the HH that is correlated to the tree species diversity. However, the results also indicate that this method is influenced by different factors including the GEDI CHMs dataset of choice and their related spatial resolution, the heterogeneity indices used to calculate the HH and the forest density. Our finding suggest that GEDI LIDAR data can be a valuable tool in the estimation of forest tree heterogeneity and related tree species diversity in forest ecosystems, which can aid in global biodiversity estimation.

Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

A spatial fingerprint of land-water linkage of biodiversity uncovered by remote sensing and environmental DNA

Aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are tightly connected via spatial flows of organisms and resources. Such land-water linkages integrate biodiversity across ecosystems and suggest a spatial association of aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. However, knowledge about the extent of this spatial association is limited. By combining satellite remote sensing (RS) and environmental DNA (eDNA) extraction from river water across a 740-km² mountainous catchment, we identify a characteristic spatial land-water fingerprint. Specifically, we find a spatial association of riverine eDNA diversity with RS spectral diversity of terrestrial ecosystems upstream, peaking at a 400 m distance yet still detectable up to a 2.0 km radius. Our findings show that biodiversity patterns in rivers can be linked to the functional diversity of surrounding terrestrial ecosystems and provide a dominant scale at which these linkages are strongest. Such spatially explicit information is necessary for a functional understanding of land-water linkages.

Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources and ecological sensitivity in the Mekong subregion in Cambodia

Water resources in the Mekong subregion in Cambodia (MSC) have experienced dramatic changes in past decades, threatening regional ecosystem quality and sustainable development. Thus, it is important to explore the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources and ecological sensitivity. This study proposed an effective framework including spatiotemporal analysis of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecological sensitivity assessment by combining remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system/science (GIS). An optimized feature space and a machine learning classification algorithm were constructed to extract four typical land cover types in the MSC from 1990 to 2020. An ecological sensitivity evaluation system, including four sub-sensitivities calculated by twelve indicators, was then constructed. The results suggest that severe shrinkage of water resources occurred before 2006, decreasing by 21.68%. The correlation between water resources and climate conditions displays a high to low level as human activity becomes involved. A significant spatiotemporal evolutionary pattern of ecological sensitivity was observed under the impact of external interference. Generally, the largest proportion of MSC belongs to the lightly sensitive level, which is mainly concentrated in the lower reaches, with an average of 33.93%. The highly sensitive area with a significant value in ecological protection has a slightly downward trend from 23.72 in 1990 to 22.55% in 2020.

Application of MaxEnt Modeling and HRM Analysis to Support the Conservation and Domestication of Gevuina avellana Mol. in Central Chile

The Chilean hazelnut (Gevuina avellana Mol., Proteaceae) is a native tree of Chile and Argentina of edible fruit-type nut. We applied two approaches to contribute to the development of strategies for mitigation of the effects of climate change and anthropic activities in G. avellana. It corresponds to the first report where both tools are integrated, the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution coupled with High-Resolution Melting Analysis (HRM) to assess its genetic diversity and understand how the species would respond to these changes. Two global climate models: CNRM-CM6-1 and MIROC-ES2L for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 126, 245, 370, and 585 (2021−2040; 2061−2080) were evaluated. The annual mean temperature (43.7%) and water steam (23.4%) were the key factors for the distribution current of G. avellana (AUC = 0.953). The future prediction model shows to the year 2040 those habitat range decreases at 50% (AUC = 0.918). The genetic structure was investigated in seven natural populations using eight EST-SSR markers, showing a percentage of polymorphic loci between 18.69 and 55.14% and low genetic differentiation between populations (Fst = 0.052; p < 0.001). According to the discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) we identified 10 genetic populations. We conclude that high-priority areas for protection correspond to Los Avellanos and Punta de Águila populations due to their greater genetic diversity and allelic richness.

The Spectral Species Concept in Living Color

Biodiversity monitoring is an almost inconceivable challenge at the scale of the entire Earth. The current (and soon to be flown) generation of spaceborne and airborne optical sensors (i.e., imaging spectrometers) can collect detailed information at unprecedented spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. These new data streams are preceded by a revolution in modeling and analytics that can utilize the richness of these datasets to measure a wide range of plant traits, community composition, and ecosystem functions. At the heart of this framework for monitoring plant biodiversity is the idea of remotely identifying species by making use of the 'spectral species' concept. In theory, the spectral species concept can be defined as a species characterized by a unique spectral signature and thus remotely detectable within pixel units of a spectral image. In reality, depending on spatial resolution, pixels may contain several species which renders species-specific assignment of spectral information more challenging. The aim of this paper is to review the spectral species concept and relate it to underlying ecological principles, while also discussing the complexities, challenges and opportunities to apply this concept given current and future scientific advances in remote sensing.

Mapping breeding bird species richness at management-relevant resolutions across the United States

Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine-enough resolution to be management-relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life-history-based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992-2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild-specific species richness were best explained at 5-km resolution using ~24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5-km-resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence-based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management-relevant biodiversity products for large areas.

Quantifying mangrove leaf area index from Sentinel-2 imagery using hybrid models and active learning

Mangrove forests provide vital ecosystem services. The increasing threats to mangrove forest extent and fragmentation can be monitored from space. Accurate spatially explicit quantification of key vegetation characteristics of mangroves, such as leaf area index (LAI), would further advance our monitoring efforts to assess ecosystem health and functioning. Here, we investigated the potential of radiative transfer models (RTM), combined with active learning (AL), to estimate LAI from Sentinel-2 spectral reflectance in the mangrove-dominated region of Ngoc Hien, Vietnam. We validated the retrieval of LAI estimates against in-situ measurements based on hemispherical photography and compared against red-edge NDVI and the Sentinel Application Platform (SNAP) biophysical processor. Our results highlight the performance of physics-based machine learning using Gaussian processes regression (GPR) in combination with AL for the estimation of mangrove LAI. Our AL-driven hybrid GPR model substantially outperformed SNAP (R2 = 0.77 and 0.44 respectively) as well as the red-edge NDVI approach. Comparing two canopy RTMs, the highest accuracy was achieved by PROSAIL (RMSE = 0.13 m2.m-2, NRMSE = 9.57%, MAE = 0.1 m2.m-2). The successful retrieval of mangrove LAI from Sentinel-2 can overcome extensive reliance on scarce in-situ measurements for training seen in other approaches and present a more scalable applicability by relying on the universal principles of physics in combination with uncertainty estimates. AL-based GPR models using RTM simulations allow us to adapt the genericity of RTMs to the peculiarities of distinct ecosystems such as mangrove forests with limited ancillary data. These findings bode potential for retrieving a wider range of vegetation variables to quantify large-scale mangrove ecosystem dynamics in space and time.

Mapping Plant Species in a Former Industrial Site Using Airborne Hyperspectral and Time Series of Sentinel-2 Data Sets

Industrial activities induce various impacts on ecosystems that influence species richness and distribution. An effective way to assess the resulting impacts on biodiversity lies in vegetation mapping. Species classification achieved through supervised machine learning algorithms at the pixel level has shown promising results using hyperspectral images and multispectral, multitemporal images. This study aims to determine whether airborne hyperspectral images with a high spatial resolution or phenological information obtained by spaceborne multispectral time series (Sentinel-2) are suitable to discriminate species and assess biodiversity in a complex impacted context. The industrial heritage of the study site has indeed induced high spatial heterogeneity in terms of stressors and species over a reduced scale. First, vegetation indices, derivative spectra, continuum removed spectra, and components provided by three feature extraction techniques, namely, Principal Component Analysis, Minimal Noise Fraction, and Independent Component Analysis, were calculated from reflectance spectra. These features were then analyzed through Sequential Floating Feature Selection. Supervised classification was finally performed using various machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Regularized Logistic Regression) considering a probability-based rejection approach. Biodiversity metrics were derived from resulted maps and analyzed considering the impacts. Average Overall Accuracy (AOA) reached up to 94% using the hyperspectral image and Regularized Logistic Regression algorithm, whereas the time series of multispectral images never exceeded 72% AOA. From all tested spectral transformations, only vegetation indices applied to the time series of multispectral images increased the performance. The results obtained with the hyperspectral image degraded to the specifications of Sentinel-2 emphasize the importance of fine spatial and spectral resolutions to achieve accurate mapping in this complex context. While no significant difference was found between impacted and reference sites through biodiversity metrics, vegetation mapping highlighted some differences in species distribution.

A Framework for Improving Wall-to-Wall Canopy Height Mapping by Integrating GEDI LiDAR

Spatially continuous canopy height is a vital input for modeling forest structures and functioning. The global ecosystem dynamics investigation (GEDI) waveform can penetrate a canopy to precisely find the ground and measure canopy height, but it is spatially discontinuous over the earth’s surface. A common method to achieve wall-to-wall canopy height mapping is to integrate a set of field-measured canopy heights and spectral bands from optical and/or microwave remote sensing data as ancillary information. However, due partly to the saturation of spectral reflectance to canopy height, the product of this method may misrepresent canopy height. As a result, neither GEDI footprints nor interpolated maps using the common method can accurately produce spatially continuous canopy height maps alone. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework of point-surface fusion for canopy height mapping (FPSF-CH) that uses GEDI data to calibrate the initial wall-to-wall canopy height map derived from a sub-model of FPSF-CH. The effectiveness of the proposed FPSF-CH was validated by comparison to canopy heights derived from (1) a high-resolution canopy height model derived from airborne discrete point cloud lidar across three test sites, (2) a global canopy height product (GDAL RH95), and (3) the results of the FPSF-CH sub-model without fusing with the GEDI canopy height. The results showed that the RMSE and rRMSE of FPSF-CH were 3.82, 4.05, and 3.48 m, and 18.77, 16.24, and 13.81% across the three test sites, respectively. The FPSF-CH achieved improvement over GDAL RH95, with reductions in RMSE values of 1.28, 2.25, and 2.23 m, and reductions in rRMSE values of 6.29, 9.01, and 8.90% across the three test sites, respectively. Additionally, the better performance of the FPSF-CH compared with its sub-model further confirmed the effectiveness of integrating GEDI data for calibrating wall-to-wall canopy height mapping. The proposed FPSF-CH integrates GEDI LiDAR data to provide a new avenue for accurate wall-to-wall canopy height mapping critical to applications, such as estimations of biomass, biodiversity, and carbon stocks.

Plant diversity reduces satellite-observed phenological variability in wetlands at a national scale

Plant diversity may enhance stability of ecosystem function and its satellite-derived indicators. However, its potential to stabilize phenology, or seasonal changes in plant function, is little understood, especially in understudied systems with high biodiversity potential such as wetlands. Using a large sample of U.S. wetlands and a new satellite-based indicator of phenological stability, we found that plant diversity was negatively associated with interannual phenological variability after controlling for covariates representing climate, site conditions, and spectral fluctuations. Furthermore, plant diversity and covariates better explained phenological variability than stability in annually summarized satellite-based biomass indicators used by earlier studies. Last, a subsequent path analysis indicated that phenological variability could mediate plant diversity relationship with the latter stability. Our results suggest that contributions of plant diversity to seasonality of ecosystems may have a stabilizing role in their functioning and offer a new basis for assessing biodiversity-stability relationships across broad geographic extents.

Assessing representation of remote sensing derived forest structure and land cover across a network of protected areas

Protected areas (PA) are an effective means of conserving biodiversity and protecting suites of valuable ecosystem services. Currently, many nations and international governments use proportional area protected as a critical metric for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation. However, the areal and other common metrics do not assess the effectiveness of PA networks, nor do they assess how representative PA are of the ecosystems they aim to protect. Topography, stand structure, and land cover are all key drivers of biodiversity within forest environments, and are well-suited as indicators to assess the representation of PA. Here, we examine the PA network in British Columbia, Canada, through drivers derived from freely-available data and remote sensing products across the provincial biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification system. We examine biases in the PA network by elevation, forest disturbances, and forest structural attributes, including height, cover, and biomass by comparing a random sample of protected and unprotected pixels. Results indicate that PA are commonly biased towards high-elevation and alpine land covers, and that forest structural attributes of the park network are often significantly different in protected versus unprotected areas (426 out of 496 forest structural attributes found to be different; p < 0.01). Analysis of forest structural attributes suggests that establishing additional PA could ensure representation of various forest structure regimes across British Columbia's ecosystems. We conclude that these approaches using free and open remote sensing data are highly transferable and can be accomplished using consistent datasets to assess PA representations globally.

Pixel-scale historical-baseline-based ecological quality: Measuring impacts from climate change and human activities from 2000 to 2018 in China

Widespread concern about ecological degradation has prompted development of concepts and exploration of methods to quantify ecological quality with the aim of measuring ecosystem changes to contribute to future policy-making. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for ecological quality measurement based on current ecosystem functions and biodiverse habitat, compared with pixel-scale historical baselines. The framework was applied to evaluate the changes and driving factors of ecological quality for Chinese terrestrial ecosystems through remote sensing-based and ecosystem process modeled data at 1 km spatial resolution from 2000 to 2018. The results demonstrated the ecological quality index (EQI) had a very different spatial pattern based upon vegetation distribution. An upward trend in EQI was found over most areas, and variability of 46.95% in EQI can be explained well by change in climate, with an additional 10.64% explained by changing human activities, quantified by population density. This study demonstrated a practical and objective approach for quantifying and assessing ecological quality, which has application potential in ecosystem assessments on scales from local to region and nation, yet would provide a new scientific concept and paradigm for macro ecosystems management and decision-making by governments.

A framework for near-real time monitoring of diversity patterns based on indirect remote sensing, with an application in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest

Monitoring biodiversity change is key to effective conservation policy. While it is difficult to establish in situ biodiversity monitoring programs at broad geographical scales, remote sensing advances allow for near-real time Earth observations that may help with this goal. We combine periodical and freely available remote sensing information describing temperature and precipitation with curated biological information from several groups of animals and plants in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest to design an indirect remote sensing framework that monitors potential loss and gain of biodiversity in near-real time. Using data from biological collections and information from repeated field inventories, we demonstrate that this framework has the potential to accurately predict trends of biodiversity change for both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity. The framework identifies areas of potential diversity loss more accurately than areas of species gain, and performs best when applied to broadly distributed groups of animals and plants.

Remote Sensing of Geomorphodiversity Linked to Biodiversity—Part III: Traits, Processes and Remote Sensing Characteristics

Remote sensing (RS) enables a cost-effective, extensive, continuous and standardized monitoring of traits and trait variations of geomorphology and its processes, from the local to the continental scale. To implement and better understand RS techniques and the spectral indicators derived from them in the monitoring of geomorphology, this paper presents a new perspective for the definition and recording of five characteristics of geomorphodiversity with RS, namely: geomorphic genesis diversity, geomorphic trait diversity, geomorphic structural diversity, geomorphic taxonomic diversity, and geomorphic functional diversity. In this respect, geomorphic trait diversity is the cornerstone and is essential for recording the other four characteristics using RS technologies. All five characteristics are discussed in detail in this paper and reinforced with numerous examples from various RS technologies. Methods for classifying the five characteristics of geomorphodiversity using RS, as well as the constraints of monitoring the diversity of geomorphology using RS, are discussed. RS-aided techniques that can be used for monitoring geomorphodiversity in regimes with changing land-use intensity are presented. Further, new approaches of geomorphic traits that enable the monitoring of geomorphodiversity through the valorisation of RS data from multiple missions are discussed as well as the ecosystem integrity approach. Likewise, the approach of monitoring the five characteristics of geomorphodiversity recording with RS is discussed, as are existing approaches for recording spectral geomorhic traits/ trait variation approach and indicators, along with approaches for assessing geomorphodiversity. It is shown that there is no comparable approach with which to define and record the five characteristics of geomorphodiversity using only RS data in the literature. Finally, the importance of the digitization process and the use of data science for research in the field of geomorphology in the 21st century is elucidated and discussed.

Integrating remote sensing with ecology and evolution to advance biodiversity conservation

Remote sensing has transformed the monitoring of life on Earth by revealing spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity through structural, compositional and functional measurements of ecosystems. Yet, many aspects of Earth's biodiversity are not directly quantified by reflected or emitted photons. Inclusive integration of remote sensing with field-based ecology and evolution is needed to fully understand and preserve Earth's biodiversity. In this Perspective, we argue that multiple data types are necessary for almost all draft targets set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. We examine five key topics in biodiversity science that can be advanced by integrating remote sensing with in situ data collection from field sampling, experiments and laboratory studies to benefit conservation. Lowering the barriers for bringing these approaches together will require global-scale collaboration.

Predicting Species and Structural Diversity of Temperate Forests with Satellite Remote Sensing and Deep Learning

Anthropogenically-driven climate change, land-use changes, and related biodiversity losses are threatening the capability of forests to provide a variety of valuable ecosystem services. The magnitude and diversity of these services are governed by tree species richness and structural complexity as essential regulators of forest biodiversity. Sound conservation and sustainable management strategies rely on information from biodiversity indicators that is conventionally derived by field-based, periodical inventory campaigns. However, these data are usually site-specific and not spatially explicit, hampering their use for large-scale monitoring applications. Therefore, the main objective of our study was to build a robust method for spatially explicit modeling of biodiversity variables across temperate forest types using open-access satellite data and deep learning models. Field data were obtained from the Biodiversity Exploratories, a research infrastructure platform that supports ecological research in Germany. A total of 150 forest plots were sampled between 2014 and 2018, covering a broad range of environmental and forest management gradients across Germany. From field data, we derived key indicators of tree species diversity (Shannon Wiener Index) and structural heterogeneity (standard deviation of tree diameter) as proxies of forest biodiversity. Deep neural networks were used to predict the selected biodiversity variables based on Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images from 2017. Predictions of tree diameter variation achieved good accuracy (r2 = 0.51) using Sentinel-1 winter-based backscatter data. The best models of species diversity used a set of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 features but achieved lower accuracies (r2 = 0.25). Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning and satellite remote sensing to predict forest parameters across a broad range of environmental and management gradients at the landscape scale, in contrast to most studies that focus on very homogeneous settings. These highly generalizable and spatially continuous models can be used for monitoring ecosystem status and functions, contributing to sustainable management practices, and answering complex ecological questions.

Biodiversity and infrastructure interact to drive tourism to and within Costa Rica

Tourism accounts for roughly 10% of global gross domestic product, with nature-based tourism its fastest-growing sector in the past 10 years. Nature-based tourism can theoretically contribute to local and sustainable development by creating attractive livelihoods that support biodiversity conservation, but whether tourists prefer to visit more biodiverse destinations is poorly understood. We examine this question in Costa Rica and find that more biodiverse places tend indeed to attract more tourists, especially where there is infrastructure that makes these places more accessible. Safeguarding terrestrial biodiversity is critical to preserving the substantial economic benefits that countries derive from tourism. Investments in both biodiversity conservation and infrastructure are needed to allow biodiverse countries to rely on tourism for their sustainable development.

Nature-based tourism has potential to sustain biodiversity and economic development, yet the degree to which biodiversity drives tourism patterns, especially relative to infrastructure, is poorly understood. Here, we examine relationships between different types of biodiversity and different types of tourism in Costa Rica to address three questions. First, what is the contribution of species richness in explaining patterns of tourism in protected areas and country-wide in Costa Rica? Second, how similar are the patterns for birdwatching tourism compared to those of overall tourism? Third, where in the country is biodiversity contributing more than other factors to birdwatching tourism and to overall tourism? We integrated environmental data and species occurrence records to build species distribution models for 66 species of amphibians, reptiles, and mammals, and for 699 bird species. We used built infrastructure variables (hotel density and distance to roads), protected area size, distance to protected areas, and distance to water as covariates to evaluate the relative importance of biodiversity in predicting birdwatching tourism (via eBird checklists) and overall tourism (via Flickr photographs) within Costa Rica. We found that while the role of infrastructure is larger than any other variable, it alone is not sufficient to explain birdwatching and tourism patterns. Including biodiversity adds predictive power and alters spatial patterns of predicted tourism. Our results suggest that investments in infrastructure must be paired with successful biodiversity conservation for tourism to generate the economic revenue that countries like Costa Rica derive from it, now and into the future.

Harmonizing Forest Conservation Policies with Essential Biodiversity Variables Incorporating Remote Sensing and Environmental DNA Technologies

It remains difficult to compare the state of conservation of forests of different nations. Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) are a set of variables designed as a framework for harmonizing biodiversity monitoring. Methods to monitor forest biodiversity are traditional monitoring (according to conservation policy requirements), remote sensing, environmental DNA, and the information products that are derived from them (RS/eDNA biodiversity products). However, it is not clear to what extent indicators from conservation policies align with EBVs and RS/eDNA biodiversity products. This research evaluated current gaps in harmonization between EBVs, RS/eDNA biodiversity products and forest conservation indicators. We compared two sets of biodiversity variables: (1) forest conservation indicators and (2) RS/eDNA biodiversity products, within the context of the Essential Biodiversity Variables framework. Indicators derived from policy documents can mostly be categorized within the EBV ‘ecosystem vertical profile’, while ‘ecosystem function’ remains underrepresented. RS/eDNA biodiversity products, however, can provide information about ‘ecosystem function’. Integrating RS/eDNA biodiversity products that monitor ecosystem functioning into monitoring programs will lead to a more comprehensive and balanced reporting on forest biodiversity. In addition, using the same variables and similar RS/eDNA products for forest biodiversity and conservation policies is a requirement for harmonization and international policy reporting.

Conservation Prioritization in a Tiger Landscape: Is Umbrella Species Enough?

Conservation approaches in tiger landscapes have focused on single species and their habitat. Further, the limited extent of the existing protected area network in India lacks representativeness, habitat connectivity, and integration in the larger landscape. Our objective was to identify sites important for connected tiger habitat and biodiversity potential in the Greater Panna Landscape, central India. Further, we aimed to set targets at the landscape level for conservation and prioritize these sites within each district in the landscape as specific management/conservation zones. We used earth observation data to derive an index of biodiversity potential. Marxan was used to identify sites that met tiger and biodiversity conservation targets with minimum costs. We found that to protect 50% of the tiger habitat with connectivity, 20% of the landscape area must be conserved. To conserve 100% of high biodiversity potential, 50% moderate biodiversity potential, and 25% low biodiversity potential, 55% of the landscape area must be conserved. To represent both tiger habitat and biodiversity, 62% of the total landscape area requires conservation or restoration intervention. The prioritized zones can prove significant for hierarchical decision making, involving multiple stakeholders in the landscape, including other tiger range areas.

Advancing Global Biodiversity Governance: Recommendations for Strengthening the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Abstract

Reversing ecosystem degradation and halting global biodiversity loss due to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers are essential for socioeconomic development and human wellbeing, as well as for advancing global sustainability. The latest initiative in this direction is the ‘Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework’, which establishes a blueprint for global coordinated action towards development of national and regional strategies targeting conservation and sustainable utilization of biodiversity. By supporting the notion of ‘ecological civilization’, it emphasises the need for transformative strategies to conserve, monitor and sustainably manage ecosystems by 2030. Arguably the articulation of fit-for-purpose goals and targets is a key precondition for achieving this vision by enhancing cooperation and influencing the development of implementation strategies and regulatory instruments at national and local levels. The present Policy Analysis critically reviews the key features of the draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and suggests recommendations to further strengthen it.

Graphical Abstract

Biodiversity conservation is imperative for planetary resilience and human health and wellbeing.

The Post-2020 Global Biodiversity framework aims to guide biodiversity governance towards ‘ecological civilization’.

Transformative approaches targeting climate adaptation and mitigation, circularity, biodiversity renewal and nature-based solutions require better inclusion.

Attainable and widely acceptable indicators for the different targets are necessary to ensure the framework’s effectiveness.

The interface of climate change mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity conservation should be further strengthened in the framework.

Individual Tree Crown Delineation Method Based on Multi-Criteria Graph Using Geometric and Spectral Information: Application to Several Temperate Forest Sites

Individual tree crown (ITC) delineation in temperate forests is challenging owing to the presence of broadleaved species with overlapping crowns. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests with characteristics that differ with the type of tree thus require a flexible method of delineation. The ITC delineation method based on the multi-criteria graph (MCG-Tree) addresses this problem in temperate monospecific or mixed forests by combining geometric and spectral information. The method was used to segment trees in three temperate forest sites with different characteristics (tree types, species distribution, planted or natural forest). Compared with a state-of-the-art watershed segmentation approach, our method increased delineation performance by up to 25%. Our results showed that the main geometric criterion to improve delineation quality is related to the crown radius (performance improvement around 8%). Coniferous/deciduous classification automatically adapts the MCG-Tree criteria to the type of tree. Promising results are then obtained to improve delineation performance for mixed forests.

Ecosystem effects of environmental extremes

[Figure: see text].

Fusing Sentinel-1 and -2 to Model GEDI-Derived Vegetation Structure Characteristics in GEE for the Paraguayan Chaco

Vegetation structure is a key component in assessing habitat quality for wildlife and carbon storage capacity of forests. Studies conducted at global scale demonstrate the increasing pressure of the agricultural frontier on tropical forest, endangering their continuity and biodiversity within. The Paraguayan Chaco has been identified as one of the regions with the highest rate of deforestation in South America. Uninterrupted deforestation activities over the last 30 years have resulted in the loss of 27% of its original cover. The present study focuses on the assessment of vegetation structure characteristics for the complete Paraguayan Chaco by fusing Sentinel-1, -2 and novel spaceborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) samples from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI). The large study area (240,000 km2) calls for a workflow in the cloud computing environment of Google Earth Engine (GEE) which efficiently processes the multi-temporal and multi-sensor data sets for extrapolation in a tile-based random forest (RF) regression model. GEDI-derived attributes of vegetation structure are available since December 2019, opening novel research perspectives to assess vegetation structure composition in remote areas and at large-scale. Therefore, the combination of global mapping missions, such as Landsat and Sentinel, are predestined to be combined with GEDI data, in order to identify priority areas for nature conservation. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment of the vegetation structure of the Paraguayan Chaco has not been conducted yet. For that reason, the present methodology was developed to generate the first high-resolution maps (10 m) of canopy height, total canopy cover, Plant-Area-Index and Foliage-Height-Diversity-Index. The complex ecosystems of the Paraguayan Chaco ranging from arid to humid climates can be described by canopy height values from 1.8 to 17.6 m and canopy covers from sparse to dense (total canopy cover: 0 to 78.1%). Model accuracy according to median R2 amounts to 64.0% for canopy height, 61.4% for total canopy cover, 50.6% for Plant-Area-Index and 48.0% for Foliage-Height-Diversity-Index. The generated maps of vegetation structure should promote environmental-sound land use and conservation strategies in the Paraguayan Chaco, to meet the challenges of expanding agricultural fields and increasing demand of cattle ranching products, which are dominant drivers of tropical forest loss.

Towards the evaluation of regional ecosystem integrity using NDVI, brightness temperature and surface heterogeneity

Maintaining ecological integrity is globally acknowledged as a strategic goal, yet there is no consensus on a practical and widely usable methodology to assess it. This study proposes a comprehensive approach to quantify regional ecosystem integrity based on FAIR data, obtained using satellite remote sensing and image analysis. Three variables are central to this approach: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), at-satellite brightness temperature (BT) and vegetation surface heterogeneity (HG), corresponding to ecosystem integrity indicators exergy capture, biotic water flows and abiotic heterogeneity. The indicators are assessed across the vegetation period and a representative Regional Index of Ecological Integrity (RIEI) is proposed to express the integrity of two case study areas and representative land use types. The proposed approach proved powerful in representing the anthropogenic and autopoietic gradient within study regions in high detail. Arable lands and urban areas ranked lowest, while dense forests and wetlands highest, agriculture being the most significant factor reducing regional integrity. Areas with conservation significance ranked either having the highest integrity, when dense vegetation was present, and mediocre or even low in case of e.g., sand dunes, marches and rock formations. Limitations of the method comprise: insufficient representation of biodiversity, sensitivity to cloud cover and demanding in-situ validation. The approach can be scaled from global to local level, adapted to various remote sensing techniques and complemented by a diversity of data (e.g., ecosystem services, geomorphological, climatic) to provide deeper understanding of landscape ecosystem integrity.

An Outcome-Oriented, Social–Ecological Framework for Assessing Protected Area Effectiveness

Both the number and the extent of protected areas have grown considerably in recent years, but evaluations of their effectiveness remain partial and are hard to compare across cases. To overcome this situation, first, we suggest reserving the term effectiveness solely for assessing protected area outcomes, to clearly distinguish this from management assessments (e.g., sound planning). Second, we propose a multidimensional conceptual framework, rooted in social–ecological theory, to assess effectiveness along three complementary dimensions: ecological outcomes (e.g., biodiversity), social outcomes (e.g., well-being), and social–ecological interactions (e.g., reduced human pressures). Effectiveness indicators can subsequently be evaluated against contextual and management elements (e.g., design and planning) to shed light on management performance (e.g., cost-effectiveness). We summarize steps to operationalize our framework to foster more holistic effectiveness assessments while improving comparability across protected areas. All of this can ensure that protected areas make real contributions toward conservation and sustainability goals.

Resolving the SLOSS dilemma for biodiversity conservation: a research agenda

The legacy of the 'SL > SS principle', that a single or a few large habitat patches (SL) conserve more species than several small patches (SS), is evident in decisions to protect large patches while down-weighting small ones. However, empirical support for this principle is lacking, and most studies find either no difference or the opposite pattern (SS > SL). To resolve this dilemma, we propose a research agenda by asking, 'are there consistent, empirically demonstrated conditions leading to SL > SS?' We first review and summarize 'single large or several small' (SLOSS) theory and predictions. We found that most predictions of SL > SS assume that between-patch variation in extinction rate dominates the outcome of the extinction-colonization dynamic. This is predicted to occur when populations in separate patches are largely independent of each other due to low between-patch movements, and when species differ in minimum patch size requirements, leading to strong nestedness in species composition along the patch size gradient. However, even when between-patch variation in extinction rate dominates the outcome of the extinction-colonization dynamic, theory can predict SS > SL. This occurs if extinctions are caused by antagonistic species interactions or disturbances, leading to spreading-of-risk of landscape-scale extinction across SS. SS > SL is also predicted when variation in colonization dominates the outcome of the extinction-colonization dynamic, due to higher immigration rates for SS than SL, and larger species pools in proximity to SS than SL. Theory that considers change in species composition among patches also predicts SS > SL because of higher beta diversity across SS than SL. This results mainly from greater environmental heterogeneity in SS due to greater variation in micro-habitats within and across SS habitat patches ('across-habitat heterogeneity'), and/or more heterogeneous successional trajectories across SS than SL. Based on our review of the relevant theory, we develop the 'SLOSS cube hypothesis', where the combination of three variables - between-patch movement, the role of spreading-of-risk in landscape-scale population persistence, and across-habitat heterogeneity - predict the SLOSS outcome. We use the SLOSS cube hypothesis and existing SLOSS empirical evidence, to predict SL > SS only when all of the following are true: low between-patch movement, low importance of spreading-of-risk for landscape-scale population persistence, and low across-habitat heterogeneity. Testing this prediction will be challenging, as it will require many studies of species groups and regions where these conditions hold. Each such study would compare gamma diversity across multiple landscapes varying in number and sizes of patches. If the prediction is not generally supported across such tests, then the mechanisms leading to SL > SS are extremely rare in nature and the SL > SS principle should be abandoned.

Predicting species distributions and community composition using satellite remote sensing predictors

Biodiversity is rapidly changing due to changes in the climate and human related activities; thus, the accurate predictions of species composition and diversity are critical to developing conservation actions and management strategies. In this paper, using satellite remote sensing products as covariates, we constructed stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) under a Bayesian framework to build next-generation biodiversity models. Model performance of these models was assessed using oak assemblages distributed across the continental United States obtained from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). This study represents an attempt to evaluate the integrated predictions of biodiversity models-including assemblage diversity and composition-obtained by stacking next-generation SDMs. We found that applying constraints to assemblage predictions, such as using the probability ranking rule, does not improve biodiversity prediction models. Furthermore, we found that independent of the stacking procedure (bS-SDM versus pS-SDM versus cS-SDM), these kinds of next-generation biodiversity models do not accurately recover the observed species composition at the plot level or ecological-community scales (NEON plots are 400 m2). However, these models do return reasonable predictions at macroecological scales, i.e., moderately to highly correct assignments of species identities at the scale of NEON sites (mean area ~ 27 km2). Our results provide insights for advancing the accuracy of prediction of assemblage diversity and composition at different spatial scales globally. An important task for future studies is to evaluate the reliability of combining S-SDMs with direct detection of species using image spectroscopy to build a new generation of biodiversity models that accurately predict and monitor ecological assemblages through time and space.