Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

The mRNA-LNP vaccines - the good, the bad and the ugly?

The mRNA-LNP vaccine has received much attention during the COVID-19 pandemic since it served as the basis of the most widely used SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in Western countries. Based on early clinical trial data, these vaccines were deemed safe and effective for all demographics. However, the latest data raise serious concerns about the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines. Here, we review some of the safety and efficacy concerns identified to date. We also discuss the potential mechanism of observed adverse events related to the use of these vaccines and whether they can be mitigated by alterations of this vaccine mechanism approach.

Blood-derived product therapies for SARS-CoV-2 infection and long COVID

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is capable of large-scale transmission and has caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Patients with COVID-19 may experience persistent long-term health issues, known as long COVID. Both acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and long COVID have resulted in persistent negative impacts on global public health. The effective application and development of blood-derived products are important strategies to combat the serious damage caused by COVID-19. Since the emergence of COVID-19, various blood-derived products that target or do not target SARS-CoV-2 have been investigated for therapeutic applications. SARS-CoV-2-targeting blood-derived products, including COVID-19 convalescent plasma, COVID-19 hyperimmune globulin, and recombinant anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing immunoglobulin G, are virus-targeting and can provide immediate control of viral infection in the short term. Non-SARS-CoV-2-targeting blood-derived products, including intravenous immunoglobulin and human serum albumin exhibit anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, antioxidant, and anticoagulatory properties. Rational use of these products can be beneficial to patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection or long COVID. With evidence accumulated since the pandemic began, we here summarize the progress of blood-derived product therapies for COVID-19, discuss the effective methods and scenarios regarding these therapies, and provide guidance and suggestions for clinical treatment.

Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Importance

COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.

Objective

To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).

Design

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.

Setting

The entire United States.

Participants

None.

Exposure

Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.

Main outcomes and measures

Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.

Results

From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.

Conclusion and Relevance

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Evolutionary Epidemiology Consequences of Trait-Dependent Control of Heterogeneous Parasites

AbstractDisease control can induce both demographic and evolutionary responses in host-parasite systems. Foreseeing the outcome of control therefore requires knowledge of the eco-evolutionary feedback between control and system. Previous work has assumed that control strategies have a homogeneous effect on the parasite population. However, this is not true when control targets those traits that confer to the parasite heterogeneous levels of resistance, which can additionally be related to other key parasite traits through evolutionary trade-offs. In this work, we develop a minimal model coupling epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics to explore possible trait-dependent effects of control strategies. In particular, we consider a parasite expressing continuous levels of a trait-determining resource exploitation and a control treatment that can be either positively or negatively correlated with that trait. We demonstrate the potential of trait-dependent control by considering that the decision maker may want to minimize both the damage caused by the disease and the use of treatment, due to possible environmental or economic costs. We identify efficient strategies showing that the optimal type of treatment depends on the amount applied. Our results pave the way for the study of control strategies based on evolutionary constraints, such as collateral sensitivity and resistance costs, which are receiving increasing attention for both public health and agricultural purposes.

Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses

Antigenic variation is the main immune escape mechanism for RNA viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2. While high mutation rates promote antigenic escape, they also induce large mutational loads and reduced fitness. It remains unclear how this cost-benefit trade-off selects the mutation rate of viruses. Using a traveling wave model for the coevolution of viruses and host immune systems in a finite population, we investigate how immunity affects the evolution of the mutation rate and other nonantigenic traits, such as virulence. We first show that the nature of the wave depends on how cross-reactive immune systems are, reconciling previous approaches. The immune-virus system behaves like a Fisher wave at low cross-reactivities, and like a fitness wave at high cross-reactivities. These regimes predict different outcomes for the evolution of nonantigenic traits. At low cross-reactivities, the evolutionarily stable strategy is to maximize the speed of the wave, implying a higher mutation rate and increased virulence. At large cross-reactivities, where our estimates place H3N2 influenza, the stable strategy is to increase the basic reproductive number, keeping the mutation rate to a minimum and virulence low.

Evolution of pathogens with cross-immunity in response to healthcare interventions

Cross-immunity, as an evolutionary driver, can contribute to pathogen evolution, particularly pathogen diversity. Healthcare interventions aimed at reducing disease severity or transmission are commonly used to control diseases and can also induce pathogen evolution. Understanding pathogen evolution in the context of cross-immunity and healthcare interventions is crucial for infection control. This study starts by modelling cross-immunity, the extent of which is determined by strain traits and host characteristics. Given that all hosts have the same characteristics, full cross-immunity between residents and mutants occurs when mutation step sizes are small enough. Cross-immunity can be partial when the step size is large. The presence of partial cross-immunity reduces pathogen load and shortens the infectious period inside hosts, reducing transmission between hosts and improving host population survival and recovery. This study focuses on how pathogens evolve through small and large mutational steps and how healthcare interventions affect pathogen evolution. Using the theory of adaptive dynamics, we found that when mutational steps are small (only full cross-immunity is present), pathogen diversity cannot occur because it maximises the basic reproduction number. This results in intermediate values for both pathogen growth and clearance rates. However, when large mutational steps are allowed (with full and partial cross-immunity present), pathogens can evolve into multiple strains and induce pathogen diversity. The study also shows that different healthcare interventions can have varying effects on pathogen evolution. Generally, low levels of intervention are more likely to induce strain diversity, while high levels are more likely to result in strain reduction.

Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 XBB variant derived from recombination of two Omicron subvariants

In late 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants have become highly diversified, and XBB is spreading rapidly around the world. Our phylogenetic analyses suggested that XBB emerged through the recombination of two cocirculating BA.2 lineages, BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1 (a progeny of BA.2.75), during the summer of 2022. XBB.1 is the variant most profoundly resistant to BA.2/5 breakthrough infection sera to date and is more fusogenic than BA.2.75. The recombination breakpoint is located in the receptor-binding domain of spike, and each region of the recombinant spike confers immune evasion and increases fusogenicity. We further provide the structural basis for the interaction between XBB.1 spike and human ACE2. Finally, the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB.1 in male hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75. Our multiscale investigation provides evidence suggesting that XBB is the first observed SARS-CoV-2 variant to increase its fitness through recombination rather than substitutions.

Do pathogens always evolve to be less virulent? The virulence–transmission trade-off in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

The direction the evolution of virulence takes in connection with any pathogen is a long-standing question. Formerly, it was theorized that pathogens should always evolve to be less virulent. As observations were not in line with this theoretical outcome, new theories emerged, chief among them the transmission–virulence trade-off hypotheses, which predicts an intermediate level of virulence as the endpoint of evolution. At the moment, we are very much interested in the future evolution of COVID-19’s virulence. Here, we show that the disease does not fulfill all the assumptions of the hypothesis. In the case of COVID-19, a higher viral load does not mean a higher risk of death; immunity is not long-lasting; other hosts can act as reservoirs for the virus; and death as a consequence of viral infection does not shorten the infectious period. Consequently, we cannot predict the short- or long-term evolution of the virulence of COVID-19.

The interplay between selective types of (macro)autophagy: Mitophagy and xenophagy

Autophagy is a physiological response, activated by a myriad of endogenous and exogenous cues, including DNA damage, perturbation of proteostasis, depletion of nutrients or oxygen and pathogen infection. Upon sensing those stimuli, cells employ multiple non-selective and selective autophagy pathways to promote fitness and survival. Importantly, there are a variety of selective types of autophagy. In this review we will focus on autophagy of bacteria (xenophagy) and autophagy of mitochondria (mitophagy). We provide a brief introduction to bulk autophagy, as well as xenophagy and mitophagy, highlighting their common molecular factors. We also describe the role of xenophagy and mitophagy in the detection and elimination of pathogens by the immune system and the adaptive mechanisms that some pathogens have developed through evolution to escape the host autophagic response. Finally, we summarize the recent articles (from the last five years) linking bulk autophagy with xenophagy and/or mitophagy in the context on developmental biology, cancer and metabolism.

SARS-CoV-2 variant biology: immune escape, transmission and fitness

In late 2020, after circulating for almost a year in the human population, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exhibited a major step change in its adaptation to humans. These highly mutated forms of SARS-CoV-2 had enhanced rates of transmission relative to previous variants and were termed 'variants of concern' (VOCs). Designated Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron, the VOCs emerged independently from one another, and in turn each rapidly became dominant, regionally or globally, outcompeting previous variants. The success of each VOC relative to the previously dominant variant was enabled by altered intrinsic functional properties of the virus and, to various degrees, changes to virus antigenicity conferring the ability to evade a primed immune response. The increased virus fitness associated with VOCs is the result of a complex interplay of virus biology in the context of changing human immunity due to both vaccination and prior infection. In this Review, we summarize the literature on the relative transmissibility and antigenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variants, the role of mutations at the furin spike cleavage site and of non-spike proteins, the potential importance of recombination to virus success, and SARS-CoV-2 evolution in the context of T cells, innate immunity and population immunity. SARS-CoV-2 shows a complicated relationship among virus antigenicity, transmission and virulence, which has unpredictable implications for the future trajectory and disease burden of COVID-19.

Antigenic escape is accelerated by the presence of immunocompromised hosts

The repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 escape mutants from host immunity has obstructed the containment of the current pandemic and poses a serious threat to humanity. Prolonged infection in immunocompromised patients has received increasing attention as a driver of immune escape, and accumulating evidence suggests that viral genomic diversity and emergence of immune-escape mutants are promoted in immunocompromised patients. However, because immunocompromised patients comprise a small proportion of the host population, whether they have a significant impact on antigenic evolution at the population level is unknown. We consider an evolutionary epidemiological model that combines antigenic evolution and epidemiological dynamics. Applying this model to a heterogeneous host population, we study the impact of immunocompromised hosts on the evolutionary dynamics of pathogen antigenic escape from host immunity. We derived analytical formulae of the speed of antigenic evolution in heterogeneous host populations and found that even a small number of immunocompromised hosts in the population significantly accelerates antigenic evolution. Our results demonstrate that immunocompromised hosts play a key role in viral adaptation at the population level and emphasize the importance of critical care and surveillance of immunocompromised hosts.

From HIV to COVID-19, Molecular mechanisms of pathogens' trade-off and persistence in the community, potential targets for new drug development

BACKGROUND

On the staggering emergence of the Omicron variant, numerous questions arose about the evolution of virulence and transmissibility in microbes.

MAIN BODY OF THE ABSTRACT

The trade-off hypothesis has long speculated the exchange of virulence for the sake of superior transmissibility in a wide array of pathogens. While this certainly applies to the case of the Omicron variant, along with influenza virus, various reports have been allocated for an array of pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), malaria, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and tuberculosis (TB). The latter abide to another form of trade-off, the invasion-persistence trade-off. In this study, we aim to explore the molecular mechanisms and mutations of different obligate intracellular pathogens that attenuated their more morbid characters, virulence in acute infections and invasion in chronic infections.

SHORT CONCLUSION

Recognizing the mutations that attenuate the most morbid characters of pathogens such as virulence or persistence can help in tailoring new therapies for such pathogens. Targeting macrophage tropism of HIV by carbohydrate-binding agents, or targeting the TMPRSS2 receptors to prevent pulmonary infiltrates of COVID-19 is an example of how important is to recognize such genetic mechanisms.