Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Importance

COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.

Objective

To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).

Design

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.

Setting

The entire United States.

Participants

None.

Exposure

Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.

Main outcomes and measures

Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.

Results

From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.

Conclusion and Relevance

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study

Background

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods

Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses.

Findings

Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed.

Interpretation

Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Funding

Various (see acknowledgments).

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods

Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches.

Findings

Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts.

Conclusions

Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Mental health and wellbeing coordinators in primary schools to support student mental health: protocol for a quasi-experimental cluster study

Background

Half of mental health disorders begin before the age of 14, highlighting the importance of prevention and early-intervention in childhood. Schools have been identified globally by policymakers as a platform to support good child mental health; however, the majority of the research is focused on secondary schools, with primary schools receiving very little attention by comparison. The limited available evidence on mental health initiatives in primary schools is hindered by a lack of rigorous evaluation. This quasi-experimental cluster study aims to examine the implementation and effectiveness of a Mental Health and Wellbeing Co-ordinator role designed to build mental health capacity within primary schools.

Methods

This is a primary (ages 5–12) school-based cluster quasi-experimental study in Victoria, Australia. Before baseline data collection, 16 schools selected by the state education department will be allocated to intervention, and another 16 matched schools will continue as ‘Business as Usual’. In intervention schools, a mental health and well-being coordinator will be recruited and trained, and three additional school staff will also be selected to receive components of the mental health training. Surveys will be completed by consenting staff (at 2-, 5-, 10- and 17-months post allocation) and by consenting parents/carers (at 3-, 10- and 17-months post allocation) in both intervention and business as usual schools. The primary objective is to assess the change in teacher’s confidence to support student mental health and wellbeing using the School Mental Health Self-Efficacy Teacher Survey. Secondary objectives are to assess the indirect impact on systemic factors (level of support, prioritisation of child mental health), parent and teachers’ mental health literacy (stigma, knowledge), care access (school engagement with community-based services), and student mental health outcomes. Implementation outcomes (feasibility, acceptability, and fidelity) and costs will also be evaluated.

Discussion

The current study will examine the implementation and effectiveness of having a trained Mental Health and Wellbeing Coordinator within primary schools. If the intervention increases teachers’ confidence to support student mental health and wellbeing and builds the capacity of primary schools it will improve student mental health provision and inform large-scale mental health service reform.

Trial registration

The trial was retrospectively registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) on July 6, 2021. The registration number is ACTRN12621000873820.

Patient consent in emergency cardiovascular medicine: lessons from the ARREST trial in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Introduction

Randomised trials in emergency cardiovascular medicine are challenging but vital for improving patient care. Obtaining informed consent in such an environment is a particular issue and can be controversial. The ARREST trial is assessing whether out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients without an obvious cause should be taken to a specialist heart centre or the closest emergency department in London, UK. This patient group presents specific difficulties: patients lack capacity to consent, presentation is unpredictable, care must not be delayed, and mortality rates can be >50%.

Purpose

Within existing consent and methodological frameworks we aimed to design a randomised clinical trial to pragmatically, safely and ethically recruit cardiac arrest patients pre-hospital.

Methods

During the set-up of ARREST we accessed the following sources of information: 1) ARREST research team; 2) cardiovascular patient groups; 3) researchers running similar trials; 4) regulatory bodies; and, 5) published literature on research in emergency contexts. The information that we collected guided the design of the trial with a focus on patient consent, documentation and follow-up.

Results

The ARREST trial uses deferred consent with remote online randomisation to enrol patients without delaying care. To minimise the risk of bias, baseline and primary endpoint data are collected on patients who die or are discharged prior to consent. Remote follow-up using electronic health records reduces the burden on the patients and researchers. Full ethical approval was received in January 2018 and the first patient was enrolled in February 2018. ARREST is recruiting to target and is on track to finish within the projected timelines.

Conclusions

Deferred consent has been key to the success of ARREST and patients have been receptive. However, further research into the experience of patients in emergency cardiovascular medicine trials using deferred consent is needed to better understand when it is an appropriate model. More broadly, there is a shortfall in high quality research in challenging environments such as emergency cardiovascular care. Innovation in consent methods and proportional research governance would facilitate higher quality research and benefit patient care.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

14,000 Volt Electrical Injury to Bilateral Upper Extremities: A Case Report

Electrical burns are among the most devastating of burn injuries. High  voltage electrical injuries result in extensive deep tissue damage and are associ- ated with multiple complications, long term morbidity, and a high mortality rate. we  describe the case of a 47 year-old electric company linesman who suffered a high voltage electrical injury (HVEI) of 14,000 volts to bilateral hands and wrists managed by the division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery at the Mcgill University Health Center in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. His management included multiple operative  procedures, including escharotomies, fasciotomies, serial debridements, and bilat- eral pedicle groin faps, and amputation of his left hand.

Fronto-temporal galanin modulates impulse control

RATIONALE

The neuropeptide galanin has been implicated in a wide range of pathological conditions in which frontal and temporal structures are compromised. It works through three subtypes of G-protein-coupled receptors. One of these, the galanin receptor 1 (Gal-R1) subtype, is densely expressed in the ventral hippocampus (vHC) and ventral prefrontal cortex (vPFC); two brain structures that have similar actions on behavioral control. We hypothesize that Gal-R1 contributes to cognitive-control mechanisms that require hippocampal-prefrontal cortical circuitry.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of local vHC and vPFC infusions of M617, a Gal-R1 agonist, on inhibitory mechanisms of response control.

METHODS

Different cohorts of rats were implanted with bilateral guide cannulae targeting the vPFC or the vHC. Following infusion of the Gal-R1 agonist, we examined the animals' behavior using a touchscreen version of the 5-choice reaction time task (5-choice task).

RESULTS

The Gal-R1 agonist produced opposing behaviors in the vPFC and vHC, leading to disruption of impulse control when infused in the vPFC but high impulse control when infused into the vHC. This contrast between areas was accentuated when we added variability to the timing of the stimulus, which led to long decision times and reduced accuracy in the vPFC group but a general improvement in performance accuracy in the vHC group.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide the first evidence of a selective mechanism of Gal-R1-mediated modulation of impulse control in prefrontal-hippocampal circuitry.

Pregnant pause: should we screen for sleep disordered breathing in pregnancy?

Physiological and hormonal changes in pregnancy can contribute towards sleep disordered breathing in pregnant women (SDBP). When present, SDBP increases the risk of several adverse maternal and fetal outcomes independent of factors such as age, weight and pre-existing maternal comorbidities. SDBP is underdiagnosed and may be hard to recognise because the presentation can be difficult to differentiate from normal pregnancy and the severity may change over the course of gestation. Timely intervention seems likely to help reduce adverse outcomes, but the relative benefits of intervention are still unclear. The definition of what constitutes a sleep-related breathing “disorder” in pregnancy may be different to the general population and so traditional thresholds for intervention may not be relevant in pregnancy. Any modifications to the disease definition in this group, or implementation of more intensive screening, may result in overdiagnosis. Further research is needed to help clinicians evaluate the balance of benefits and harms in this process. Until this is clearer there is a strong imperative for shared decision making in screening and treatment decisions, and screening programmes should be monitored to assess whether improved outcomes can be achieved at the healthcare system level.

Untreated sleep disordered breathing in pregnancy poses risks to maternal and fetal wellbeing, but thresholds for and effectiveness of intervention are unclear. Clinicians should use shared decision making for screening and treatment decisions.http://ow.ly/N0oN30noWnx

Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia

New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face difficult decisions regarding spatial targeting of interventions to optimally allocate limited resources. We used a large-scale, data-driven, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to explore CHIKV mitigation strategies, including strategies based on previous DENV outbreaks. Our model represents CHIKV transmission in a realistic population of Colombia with 45 million individuals in 10.6 million households, schools, and workplaces. Our model uses high-resolution probability maps for the occurrence of the Ae. aegypti mosquito vector to estimate mosquito density in Colombia. We found that vector control in all 521 municipalities with mosquito populations led to 402,940 fewer clinical cases of CHIKV compared to a baseline scenario without intervention. We also explored using data about previous dengue virus (DENV) epidemics to inform CHIKV mitigation strategies. Compared to the baseline scenario, 314,437 fewer cases occurred when we simulated vector control only in 301 municipalities that had previously reported DENV, illustrating the value of available data from previous outbreaks. When varying the implementation parameters for vector control, we found that faster implementation and scale-up of vector control led to the greatest proportionate reduction in cases. Using available data for epidemic simulations can strengthen decision making against new epidemic threats.

Clinical assessment of gastric emptying and sensory function utilizing gamma scintigraphy: Establishment of reference intervals for the liquid and solid components of the Nottingham test meal in healthy subjects

BACKGROUND

Current investigations of stomach function are based on small test meals that do not reliably induce symptoms and analysis techniques that rarely detect clinically relevant dysfunction. This study presents the reference intervals of the modular "Nottingham test meal" (NTM) for assessment of gastric function by gamma scintigraphy (GSc) in a representative population of healthy volunteers (HVs) stratified for age and sex.

METHODS

The NTM comprises 400 mL liquid nutrient (0.75 kcal/mL) and an optional solid component (12 solid agar-beads (0 kcal). Filling and dyspeptic sensations were documented by 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS). Gamma scintigraphy parameters that describe early and late phase Gastric emptying (GE) were calculated from validated models.

KEY RESULTS

Gastric emptying (GE) of the liquid component was measured in 73 HVs (male 34; aged 45±20). The NTM produced normal postprandial fullness (VAS ≥30 in 41/74 subjects). Dyspeptic symptoms were rare (VAS ≥30 in 2/74 subjects). Gastric emptying half-time with the Liquid- and Solid-component -NTM was median 44 (95% reference interval 28-78) minutes and 162 (144-193) minutes, respectively. Gastric accommodation was assessed by the ratio of the liquid-NTM retained in the proximal:total stomach and by Early phase emptying assessed by gastric volume after completing the meal (GCV0). No consistent effect of anthropometric measures on GE parameters was present.

CONCLUSIONS AND INFERENCES

Reference intervals are presented for GSc measurements of gastric motor and sensory function assessed by the NTM. Studies involving patients are required to determine whether the reference interval range offers optimal diagnostic sensitivity and specificity.

Review: Nutrient sulfate supply from mother to fetus: Placental adaptive responses during human and animal gestation

Nutrient sulfate has numerous roles in mammalian physiology and is essential for healthy fetal growth and development. The fetus has limited capacity to generate sulfate and relies on sulfate supplied from the maternal circulation via placental sulfate transporters. The placenta also has a high sulfate requirement for numerous molecular and cellular functions, including sulfate conjugation (sulfonation) to estrogen and thyroid hormone which leads to their inactivation. Accordingly, the ratio of sulfonated (inactive) to unconjugated (active) hormones modulates endocrine function in fetal, placental and maternal tissues. During pregnancy, there is a marked increase in the expression of genes involved in transport and generation of sulfate in the mouse placenta, in line with increasing fetal and placental demands for sulfate. The maternal circulation also provides a vital reservoir of sulfate for the placenta and fetus, with maternal circulating sulfate levels increasing by 2-fold from mid-gestation. However, despite evidence from animal studies showing the requirement of maternal sulfate supply for placental and fetal physiology, there are no routine clinical measurements of sulfate or consideration of dietary sulfate intake in pregnant women. This is also relevant to certain xenobiotics or pharmacological drugs which when taken by the mother use significant quantities of circulating sulfate for detoxification and clearance, and thereby have the potential to decrease sulfonation capacity in the placenta and fetus. This article will review the physiological adaptations of the placenta for maintaining sulfate homeostasis in the fetus and placenta, with a focus on pathophysiological outcomes in animal models of disturbed sulfate homeostasis.

A survey of veterinary antimicrobial prescribing practices, Washington State 2015

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing global health issue. It is also a recognised problem in veterinary medicine. Between September and December 2015 the authors administered a cross-sectional survey to licensed veterinarians in Washington State to assess factors affecting antimicrobial prescribing practices among veterinarians in Washington State. Two hundred and three veterinarians completed the survey. The majority of respondents (166, 82 per cent) were engaged in small animal or exotic animal practice. 24 per cent of respondents reported not ordering culture and sensitivity (C/S) testing in practice. Of the 76 per cent of veterinarians who reported ordering C/S tests, 36 per cent reported ordering such testing 'often' or 'always' when treating presumptive bacterial infections. Most respondents (65 per cent) mentioned cost as the most common barrier to ordering a C/S test. Only 16 (10 per cent) respondents reported having access to or utilising a clinic-specific antibiogram. This survey demonstrated that while antimicrobials are commonly used in veterinary practice, and veterinarians are concerned about antimicrobial resistance, cost is a barrier to obtaining C/S tests to guide antimicrobial therapy. Summaries of antimicrobial resistance patterns are rarely available to the practising veterinarian. Efforts to promote antimicrobial stewardship in a 'One Health' manner should address barriers to the judicious use of antimicrobials in the veterinary practice setting.

Development and validation of a large, modular test meal with liquid and solid components for assessment of gastric motor and sensory function by non-invasive imaging

BACKGROUND

Current investigations of stomach function are based on small test meals that do not reliably induce symptoms and analysis techniques that rarely detect clinically relevant dysfunction. This study introduces the large 'Nottingham Test Meal' (NTM) for assessment of gastric motor and sensory function by non-invasive imaging.

METHODS

NTM comprises 400 mL liquid nutrient (0.75 kcal/mL) and 12 solid agar-beads (0 kcal) with known breaking strength. Gastric fullness and dyspeptic sensations were documented by 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS). Gastric emptying (GE) were measured in 24 healthy volunteers (HVs) by gastric scintigraphy (GS) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The contribution of secretion to gastric volume was assessed. Parameters that describe GE were calculated from validated models. Inter-observer agreement and reproducibility were assessed.

KEY RESULTS

NTM produced moderate fullness (VAS ≥30) but no more than mild dyspeptic symptoms (VAS <30) in 24 HVs. Stable binding of meal components to labels in gastric conditions was confirmed. Distinct early and late-phase GE were detected by both modalities. Liquid GE half-time was median 49 (95% CI: 36-62) min and 68 (57-71) min for GS and MRI, respectively. Differences between GS and MRI measurements were explained by the contribution of gastric secretion. Breaking strength for agar-beads was 0.8 N/m(2) such that median 25 (8-50) % intact agar-beads and 65 (47-74) % solid material remained at 120 min on MRI and GS, respectively. Good reproducibility for liquid GE parameters was present and GE was not altered by agar-beads.

CONCLUSIONS & INFERENCES

The NTM provided an objective assessment of gastric motor and sensory function. The results were reproducible and liquid emptying was not affected by non-nutrient agar-beads. The method is potentially suitable for clinical practice.

Black holes in higher derivative gravity

Extensions of Einstein gravity with higher-order derivative terms arise in string theory and other effective theories, as well as being of interest in their own right. In this Letter we study static black-hole solutions in the example of Einstein gravity with additional quadratic curvature terms. A Lichnerowicz-type theorem simplifies the analysis by establishing that they must have vanishing Ricci scalar curvature. By numerical methods we then demonstrate the existence of further black-hole solutions over and above the Schwarzschild solution. We discuss some of their thermodynamic properties, and show that they obey the first law of thermodynamics.

The need for epididymovasostomy at vasectomy reversal plateaus in older vasectomies: a study of 1229 cases

Vasectomy reversal involves either vasovasostomy (VV) or epididymovasostomy (EV), and rates of epididymal obstruction and EV increase with time after vasectomy. However, as older vasectomies may not require EV for successful reversal, we hypothesized that sperm production falls after vasectomy and can protect the system from epididymal blowout. Our objective was to define how the need for EV at reversal changes with time after vasectomy through a retrospective review of consecutive reversals performed by three surgeons over a 10-year period. Vasovasotomy was performed with Silber score 1-3 vasal fluid. EVs were performed with Silber score 4 (sperm fragments; creamy fluid) or 5 (sperm absence) fluid. Reversal procedure type was correlated with vasectomy and patient age. Post-operative patency rates, total spermatozoa and motile sperm counts in younger (<15 years) and older (>15 years) vasectomies were assessed. Simple descriptive statistics determined outcome relevance. Among 1229 patients, 406 had either unilateral (n = 252) or bilateral EV's (n = 154) constituting 33% (406/1229) of reversals. Mean patient age was 41.4±7 years (range 22-72). Median vasectomy interval was 10 years (range 1-38). Overall sperm patency rate after reversal was 84%. The rate of unilateral (EV/VV) or bilateral EV increased linearly in vasectomy intervals of 1-22 years at 3% per year, but plateaued at 72% in vasectomy intervals of 24-38 years. Sperm counts were maintained with increasing time after vasectomy, but motile sperm counts decreased significantly (p < 0.001). Pregnancy, secondary azoospermia, varicocoele and sperm granuloma were not assessed. In conclusion, and contrary to conventional thinking, the need for EV at reversal increases with time after vasectomy, but this relationship is not linear. EV rates plateau 22 years after vasectomy, suggesting that protective mechanisms ameliorate epididymal 'blowout'. Upon reversal, sperm output is maintained with time after vasectomy, but motile sperm counts decrease linearly, suggesting epididymal dysfunction influences semen quality after reversal.

The effects of ketamine and risperidone on eye movement control in healthy volunteers

The non-competitive N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist ketamine leads to transient psychosis-like symptoms and impairments in oculomotor performance in healthy volunteers. This study examined whether the adverse effects of ketamine on oculomotor performance can be reversed by the atypical antipsychotic risperidone. In this randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 72 healthy participants performed smooth pursuit eye movements (SPEM), prosaccades (PS) and antisaccades (AS) while being randomly assigned to one of four drug groups (intravenous 100 ng ml(-1) ketamine, 2 mg oral risperidone, 100  ng ml(-1) ketamine plus 2 mg oral risperidone, placebo). Drug administration did not lead to harmful adverse events. Ketamine increased saccadic frequency and decreased velocity gain of SPEM (all P < 0.01) but had no significant effects on PS or AS (all P > or = 0.07). An effect of risperidone was observed for amplitude gain and peak velocity of PS and AS, indicating hypometric gain and slower velocities compared with placebo (both P < or = 0.04). No ketamine by risperidone interactions were found (all P > or = 0.26). The results confirm that the administration of ketamine produces oculomotor performance deficits similar in part to those seen in schizophrenia. The atypical antipsychotic risperidone did not reverse ketamine-induced deteriorations. These findings do not support the cognitive enhancing potential of risperidone on oculomotor biomarkers in this model system of schizophrenia and point towards the importance of developing alternative performance-enhancing compounds to optimise pharmacological treatment of schizophrenia.

ROCK1 & 2 perform overlapping and unique roles in angiogenesis and angiosarcoma tumor progression

The serine/threonine protein kinase paralogs ROCK1 & 2 have been implicated as essential modulators of angiogenesis; however their paralog-specific roles in endothelial function are unknown. shRNA knockdown of ROCK1 or 2 in endothelial cells resulted in a significant disruption of in vitro capillary network formation, cell polarization, and cell migration compared to cells harboring non-targeting control shRNA plasmids. Knockdowns led to alterations in cytoskeletal dynamics due to ROCK1 & 2-mediated reductions in actin isoform expression, and ROCK2-specific reduction in myosin phosphatase and cofilin phosphorylation. Knockdowns enhanced cell survival and led to ROCK1 & 2-mediated reduction in caspase 6 and 9 cleavage, and a ROCK2-specific reduction in caspase 3 cleavage. Microarray analysis of ROCK knockdown lines revealed overlapping and unique control of global transcription by the paralogs, and a reduction in the transcriptional regulation of just under 50% of VEGF responsive genes. Finally, paralog knockdown in xenograft angiosarcoma tumors resulted in a significant reduction in tumor formation. Our data reveals that ROCK1 & 2 exhibit overlapping and unique roles in normal and dysfunctional endothelial cells, that alterations in cytoskeletal dynamics are capable of overriding mitogen activated transcription, and that therapeutic targeting of ROCK signaling may have profound impacts for targeting angiogenesis.

Hope and the use of behavioural strategies related to diet and physical activity

BACKGROUND

The use of specific behavioural strategies such as portion control or meal planning is important for weight management, although studies of determinants of strategy use are limited. The present study explored the concept of hope and its association with the use of behavioural strategies.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a larger cross-sectional survey conducted in 2009 among 178 patients of a city-county sponsored primary care clinic in the Midwest region of the USA. Hope was measured with subscales representing 'agency' (determination in meeting goals) and 'pathways' (perception of ways to meet goals) and a total score. Diet and physical activity-related strategies were captured with five and two scales, respectively.

RESULTS

Analyses showed a significant (P < 0.05) association between both the total hope score and the agency subscale and all behavioural strategy measures. The pathways subscale was significantly associated with physical activity-related strategies, and a subset of diet-related strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

The hope measures should be explored further in the context of a weight loss intervention to determine their predictive association with the use of specific behavioural strategies.

Aspirin for the older person: report of a meeting at the Royal Society of Medicine, London, 3rd November 2011

On November 23rd 2011, the Aspirin Foundation held a meeting at the Royal Society of Medicine in London to review current thinking on the potential role of aspirin in preventing cardiovascular disease and reducing the risk of cancer in older people. The meeting was supported by Bayer Pharma AG and Novacyl.

Giant Cell Reparative Granuloma of the Proximal Phalanx: A Case Report and Literature Review

The present article is a case report of a 16-year-old boy who presented with a benign bony tumour, which on histological analysis suggested giant cell reparative granuloma (GCRG), but was not corroborate by blood tests. The implications of this type of tumour and the correct diagnostic requirements were investigated. The correct identification of GCRG from other giant cell-containing tumours is important because the treatment modalities for these tumours significantly differ from one another. In most cases, histological findings are sufficient to identify the tumours. In most GCRG cases, curettage is usually a curative treatment option. However, due to high recurrence rates of GCRGs, close follow-up of these patients is warranted. Also, due to osteoclastic activity of the giant cells in GCRGs, the use of drugs such as calcitonin or bisphosphonates, which inhibit osteoclast differentiation and activation, may have an important influence on future treatments or in reducing the recurrence rate of these tumours.

14,000 volt electrical injury to bilateral upper extremities: a case report

Electrical burns are among the most devastating of burn injuries. High voltage electrical injuries result in extensive deep tissue damage and are associated with multiple complications, long term morbidity, and a high mortality rate. We describe the case of a 47 year-old electric company linesman who suffered a high voltage electrical injury (HVEI) of 14,000 volts to bilateral hands and wrists managed by the Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery at the McGill University Health Center in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. His management included multiple operative procedures, including escharotomies, fasciotomies, serial debridements, and bilateral pedicle groin flaps, and amputation of his left hand.

Giant cell reparative granuloma of the proximal phalanx: A case report and literature review

The present article is a case report of a 16-year-old boy who presented with a benign bony tumour, which on histological analysis suggested giant cell reparative granuloma (GCRG), but was not corroborate by blood tests. The implications of this type of tumour and the correct diagnostic requirements were investigated. The correct identification of GCRG from other giant cell-containing tumours is important because the treatment modalities for these tumours significantly differ from one another. In most cases, histological findings are sufficient to identify the tumours. In most GCRG cases, curettage is usually a curative treatment option. However, due to high recurrence rates of GCRGs, close follow-up of these patients is warranted. Also, due to osteoclastic activity of the giant cells in GCRGs, the use of drugs such as calcitonin or bisphosphonates, which inhibit osteoclast differentiation and activation, may have an important influence on future treatments or in reducing the recurrence rate of these tumours.

Study of X-ray field junction dose using an a-Si electronic portal imaging device

Field junctions between megavoltage photon beams are important in modern radiotherapy for treatments such as head and neck and breast cancer. An electronic portal imaging device (EPID) may be used to study junction dose between two megavoltage X-ray fields. In this study, the junction dose was used to determine machine characteristics such as jaw positions and their reproducibility, collimator rotation and the effect of gantry rotation. All measurements were done on Varian linear accelerators with EPID (Varian, Palo Alto, CA). The results show reproducibility in jaw positions of approximately 0.3 mm for repeated jaw placement while EPID readings were reproducible within a standard deviation of 0.4% for fixed jaw positions. Junction dose also allowed collimator rotation error of 0.1 degrees to be observed. Dependence of junction dose on gantry rotation due to gravity was observed; the gravity effect being maximum at 180 degrees gantry angle (beam pointing up). EPIDs were found to be reliable tools for checking field junctions, which in turn may be used to check jaw reproducibility and collimator rotation of linacs.