Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

A prospective evaluation of AI-augmented epidemiology to forecast COVID-19 in the USA and Japan

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases, and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks. We present an international, prospective evaluation of our models' performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. Nationally, incident mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths during prospective deployment remained consistently <8% (US) and <29% (Japan), while cumulative MAPE remained <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and are robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

[Different effects of subacute administration of S. Croce oligo-mineral water on colonic vs rectal constipation]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of a subacute administration of oligomineral water "S. Croce Sponga" in subjects affected by chronic constipation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Hospitalized patients (13 females and 4 males) have been classified according to radiologically evaluated transit times if affected by colonic or rectal constipation, and by clinical interview if suffering from chronic colonic constipation due to increased resistance or hypomotility. Treatment consisted in the administration of 1.5 litres/day of S. Croce Sponga oligomineral water for 7 days or a control water of known composition. The study started after seven days of hospital stay.

RESULTS

The results of the study showed that S. Croce Sponga oligomineral water was effective in resolving the condition of chronic colonic constipation in almost 80% of the subjects. No effect was observed in subjects with chronic rectal constipation.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with S. Croce Sponga oligomineral water resolved chronic colonic constipation by enhancing velocity of the colonic transit.

Effect of copper sulfate on experimental atherosclerosis

Serum copper concentration increases significantly (p < 0.01) in rats with experimental atherosclerosis compared to a control group. The serum zinc, the zinc, and copper concentration in abdominal aorta and in liver decreases significantly (p < 0.05) compared to the control group. Administration of copper sulfate for 100 d in these animals induces a significant increase of serum copper (p < 0.01), decrease of serum cholesterol (p < 0.05) and increase of liver copper concentration as compared with the group fed only a high cholesterol diet. In the aorta of these animals the copper concentration increases and edema and lipid infiltration are considerably less than in the group of animals fed only a high lipid diet.

Differential hemispheric asymmetries in depression and anxiety: a reaction-time study

Several lines of evidence suggest impaired right hemisphere function in depression. In order to further investigate this phenomenon, simple reaction times (RTs) to lateralized visual stimuli were studied in patients with mild unipolar depression, in patients with chronic anxiety, and in medical patients free of psychiatric symptoms. The results showed a marked slowing of RTs to left visual field (right hemisphere) stimuli in depressed patients. Anxious patients showed a trend toward an opposite asymmetry, with slower responses to right field (left hemisphere) stimuli. In the nonpsychiatric group no visual field differences were present. The results are discussed in light of two alternative interpretations: depression may engage the right hemisphere's mechanisms, interfering with its functioning at a premotor level, or it may influence the regulation of performance by arousal and vigilance mechanisms lateralized to the right hemisphere, possibly operating at an earlier sensory stage.

Right hemisphere superiority for programming oculomotion: evidence from simple reaction time experiments

Simple reaction times (RTs) to lateralized unstructured visual stimuli were measured in normal subjects while they were carrying out concomitant oculomotor tasks. Four tasks were used. In the first task, subjects had to find the correct path in a maze presented at the centre of a screen; in the second task, subjects had to follow a bright dot moved on a screen with variable direction, trajectory and velocity with their eyes; in the third task, the subjects had to follow a bright dot moved back and forth either horizontally or vertically along the same trajectory and at a constant velocity; in the fourth task, the subjects had to monitor the movement of a bright dot moved with variable direction, trajectory and velocity without moving the eyes. In all tasks, with the exception of the third, there was a selective lengthening of RTs mediated by the right hemisphere. It is concluded that the right hemisphere is dominant in programming eye movements.

[Hemispheric differences of simple reaction times in non-psychotic unipolar depressed patients]

Simple reaction times to visual stimuli were studied in 8 patients affected by depression and in 8 normal subjects. Regardless of the hand used, the condition of depression produced a specific lengthening of the responses to stimuli located in the left visual field. It is concluded that the right hemisphere plays a major role in modulation of negative emotional behaviour.

[Selective interference for the right hemisphere in a task of visual-motor exploration]

Simple reaction times to lateralized visual stimuli were studied in normal subjects while they were carrying out a concomitant task. The concomitant task consisted in the exploration of a visual maze presented in the middle of a screen. Regardless of the hand used, the concomitant task produced a specific lengthening of the responses to stimuli located in the left visual field. It is concluded that the right hemisphere plays a major role in the organization of ocular movements during active exploration of visual environment.